Stark-Lannister alliance - could it work?

[devilish]

1 hour ago, Graydon Hicks said:

very good points. i agree that its a choice betweeen either winning the war and punishing the lannisters, or getting his family back safely. but if robb was in a position, say he went to treat with renly, instead of his mother, to take over the tyrell army? he is a king, he is charismatic, good looking, and with a reputation for success on the battle field against a force both numerically superior and lead by a fame accomplished military commander (did tywin deserve that particular reputation, i dont know, but most of westeros seems to think so). that gives him a lot of selling points. say he goes to treat with renly instead of his mother. think of the impression he makes on renly's army. the tyrell and stormland army is sitting pretty, far from the battleground in the riverlands, having mini tourneys and feasting instead of engaging lannister forces from the south. in marches a young king in the north, wearing battle worn armor and weapons, bearing scars, showing the evidence that his forces have actually been fighting, and winning, even with the odds against them. maybe he makes friends with renly, we see a conversation similar to what renly had with cat, and robb meets margy. margy knows renly's preferences, but keeps trying. then here is the young handsome northerner, of an age with her. maybe they become friendly, within the bounds of propriety. robb is there for the talk with stannis, and is present when the shadow kills renly, and survives himself.

now with renly dead, and the army starting to break up as stormlanders head to stannis, and reachlords starting heading home, the tyrells have this wonderful opportunity in front of them. here is a young scion of a powerful and ancient noble house, a king in his own right, with a string of victories to his name. maybe they push for robb to take command of the army, have him marry margery to seal themselves to him. with someone like olenna tyrell to provide the political advise, im sure they could find away to appease the freys, who i feel would have betrayed robb no matter what he did. and with this 60-80k army added to his own, he now has an honest chance of kicking tywin's ass up between his ears. yes sansa might die at the hands of cersie and joffrey (for the life of me i dont understand why robb never bothered to sneak a dozen or so men into the capital to get to sansa, black ops style. the concept had to exist because bronn suggested it about dealing with the eyrie.) but now he also has the means to push the war home and actually take the red keep.

If Robb is willing to sacrifice his sisters to win the war and get his revenge then he should opt for Renly’s option. He might still attempt swapping Jamie with Sansa and Arya but I doubt that the Tywin would accept

a-    Because Arya has vanished in thin air. That knowledge alone would infuriate the Northerners further who would think that the little girl had been tortured and killed by the Lannisters.
b-    Without Sansa, the North is free to bend the knee to anyone with an army capable of crushing the Lannisters
Regarding your comment, well, I do agree that sending mummy to negotiate with Renly was stupid. However, I am not sure that a 15 year old would have had that much of an impact either. Robb was hardly an impressive sight to reckon with. Even the Northerners struggled to obey Robb Stark’s orders at first and we’re talking about pro Stark fanatics like the big and dumb Greatjon Umber.

The King in the North title makes matter worse as it turned the Starks from loyal subjects who were willing to lose their lives to defend the Baratheon claim into usurpers.  Under such circumstances Renly was quite happy to let the wolf and the lion skin each other alive which would have made it easier for him to invade 2 regions (crownlands and the riverlands) and bring the North & the westerlands to kneel (thanks to hostages) without breaking any sweat.

Having said that, how important was Renly in the equation? Most of his army was made up by Tyrell men. If the war take ages to end or is somehow shifted to the reaches’ fertile lands then the Tyrells would be the ones suffering from it. I wonder how Mace would react to the idea of King Robb returning to Winterfell before King Renly was able to force him to bend the knee. Surely Renly would have no choice but to invade the North. Who would possibly pay for such expensive expedition? 

There’s no way Robb could personally negotiate with Mace. That would be treason. However there is a loophole to that. We all know how women in the medieval world are. They are extremely emotional, weak by nature and very protective towards their cubs.  If Lady Cat Tully happen to send a raven to let say Olenna Tyrell not as Queen Regent but in the capacity of a concerned mother to another concerned mother then surely Olena would listen to her plea and convince her oaf son to grant her guest rights. God forbid if words spread that the great Mace Tyrell was afraid of allowing a woman within his castle. Once in Highgarden Cat, Olena and possibly Willas could work out a deal that would suits both interests. Mace would love being remembered as the great diplomatic genius who brought the North + the Riverlands back to the fold and Renly can hardly say no to his daddy in law especially since he’s the one winning him the crown.
 

[The Sunland Lord]

21 hours ago, devilish said:

@The Sunland Lord

-

- Cersei is mare to breed for Tywin. The issue here would be the Warden of the West. With Renly able to lead a 60k-80k army to war can Tywin  really afford turning down the demands of a 20k enemy whose willing to become a friend? Especially since that Robb has the golden boy in 'custody'. Is it worth to risk being encircled and destroyed and have your entire family wiped out just to preserve the honour of a mad king? Or is it worth to sacrifice that incompetent boy in the name of a long Lannister dynasty with marital ties stretched at the 4 corners of Westeros?

If this was the case Tywin would've already sent these terms. But, despite him not being satisfied with how Joffrey turned out to be, didn't even consider to sacrifice him in order to get Robb's good will. Cersei also wouldn't allow Joffrey to be sent to the wall, like never.

21 hours ago, devilish said:

 

 I don't think Robb wanted to marry a Frey. Sure he didn't want to marry Myrcella either. There again with Myrcella at Winterfell and Cersei at Riverrun his uncle's and his sister's lives were secure. The lions would never risk hurting on of their own.

Myrcella liked Robb, and maybe vice versa, but would Robb marry the sister of his father's killer? He can marry just any northern/riverlands girl after the war.

Therefore, I agree, he wouldn't have to marry Roslin, but he may have the choice to do so.

21 hours ago, devilish said:

 That's metaphorically speaking. Once Joffrey has taken the black, Robb's and Tywin's could meet in Harrenhal. A fast marriage between Cersei, Mycella, Robb and Edmure would follow with Jamie released soon afterwards. Tywin's and Robb would then march south were they can take on Renly and the Tyrells. There's no need for Robb to actually bend the knee to the king.

Still think Tywin's and Robb's armies wouldn't trust each other after that many battles and bllodshed. And to think how some of the POWs (can't say their threatment while being held captives was splendid), would fight alongside the same people that captured them, maybe tortured them, just yesterday. And of course, Riverlanders' Lords' smallfolk killed, raped, and tortured and villages sucked and burned. And the other way around. This is the people and lands these Lords actually are rulling.

21 hours ago, devilish said:

The Kings of Winter had married off the daughters of the same Lords that they had just crushed. The Baratheon bastard married the daughter of the Storm king after his half brother killed her daddy and his men had paraded her naked in chains.

Not a guarantee the same would work now.

21 hours ago, devilish said:

No one knows that. Also note that Tywin considered marrying the lioness to Theon despite her first husband had wiped half of the Greyjoy's clan

I still think Cersei/Edmure wouldn't work, for reasons from previous reply. 

21 hours ago, devilish said:

The lion won because Stannis used blood magic against his brother. That's called a fluke. In normal circumstances Renly would have moved his horde to KL and Tywin would have came late to the show as Robb 20k would have harassing him all the way. Sansa, Cersei, Joffrey and Tommen would lose their heads. Jamie would die soon afterwards, the lion and the wolf would rip each other up and the Stag would wipe away the victor with ease. There would have been 1 winner out of this whole thing and its neither a lion nor a wolf

 

It was a fluke, yet it happened anyways. Plus, Robb wouldn't care for Lannisters' well beings after he has his peace agreement. That means he has Sansa already back as part of the hostages exchange. He'd had no interest in the Blackwater Bay battle. 

[norwaywolf123]

On 21.8.2017 at 6:51 PM, The Sunland Lord said:

-Jaime is exchanged with Sansa, presumably Arya is found to be taken back to WF instead for a hostage, maybe both sides participate in searching for her. Also, every prisoner on both sides is exchanged. Cersei/Edmure wouldn't work if you ask me. She was the reason his nephew was pushed from a tower and this is now a common knowledge (if I'm not mistaken).

It is common knowledge for readers but not in planetos.

[The Sunland Lord]

24 minutes ago, norwaywolf123 said:

It is common knowledge for readers but not in planetos.

So I'm mistaken. OK.

[Graydon Hicks]

16 hours ago, devilish said:

If Robb is willing to sacrifice his sisters to win the war and get his revenge then he should opt for Renly’s option. He might still attempt swapping Jamie with Sansa and Arya but I doubt that the Tywin would accept

 

tywin might accept the swap, though he might argue hard about the terms, but i dont think cersie would ever be willing to give her prisoner and joffrey's favorite toy to torture. any bargain would be seen as a weakness or a surrender from her side of things, though tywin is obviously smart enough to see any advantages he might gain. but for cersie that kind of giving of ground would a slap in her narcissistic face. 

[devilish]

1 hour ago, Graydon Hicks said:

tywin might accept the swap, though he might argue hard about the terms, but i dont think cersie would ever be willing to give her prisoner and joffrey's favorite toy to torture. any bargain would be seen as a weakness or a surrender from her side of things, though tywin is obviously smart enough to see any advantages he might gain. but for cersie that kind of giving of ground would a slap in her narcissistic face. 

For Tywin Cersei is a cow to breed and Joffrey, well, Joffrey is a problem. As long as there's a lion sitting on the iron throne and his boy is returned than he would be happy. Robb is the issue here, not Tywin

[Graydon Hicks]

oh i get that, i mean the tywin was ever one for pragmatism. its within scope that he could consider a hostage exchange with robb, but cersie never would. tywin wouldnt care about what she thinks, but she has joffrey's ear, and she could coax the golden shit into such a tantrum that he kills sansa just to deny robb the return of his sister and tywin the authority to make the swap.

[devilish]

3 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

oh i get that, i mean the tywin was ever one for pragmatism. its within scope that he could consider a hostage exchange with robb, but cersie never would. tywin wouldnt care about what she thinks, but she has joffrey's ear, and she could coax the golden shit into such a tantrum that he kills sansa just to deny robb the return of his sister and tywin the authority to make the swap.

I work a lot with people and Im described as a good character reader. One of my tricks is to try to wear someone else’s shoes. That’s what I try to do in GOT too

Tywin is the head of his family. He’s got a rather Spartan way of ruling over his household and his region as a whole. Disobedience is simply not tolerated. When the Reynes/Tarbecks rebel against him he goes to such extreme of sinking an entire gold mine just to get back to them. He could have got rid of Tysha with some gold or a visit from Sandor Clegane but no, that’s not Tywin style. He has her raped by half an army in front of a traumatised Tyrion. His obsession over control cost him dearly. He pisses of Aerys (ok the king is cuckoo but having Tywin plotting your son’s wedding behind your back isn’t nice), his two younger brothers Gerion and Tygett while his sister’s husband live in CR in complete fear of the man.

He might feel that his children and his grandchildren are under his thumb and for good reason. Tywin was the man who made Cersei-Robert marriage happen by eliminating/scare any possible ‘competitor’ (ie  dragon spawns). The price he paid for that was Dorne’s eternal hatred towards the lions. After that, CR has been paying Robert’s bills and when Robert died, the lions were the first and only house who marches into battle to defend the crown. 
Cersei and Joffrey might think that they are powerful but Tywin is all they got standing between the crown and the stag/wolf. That might not be enough. There’s no way the lion could go solo against the Rose, the two stags, the trout and the wolf, especially if they manage to convince the Kraken, Dorne and House Arryn to join. The wolf is a wild card.

They have no ambition for the IT which makes them great allies to anybody, they share blood with half Westeros and they can easily inflict great damage to the crown only to then retreat to the right side of Moat Cailin, sealing the North for good. That makes Joffrey’s decision of executing Ned (a war hero) extremely stupid and reckless. They awakened a sleeping giant, who could be ‘persuaded’ to an unlikely but still possible alliance to fight against the crown at a time when everyone hated their guts.

Tywin’s dream was always to see a blondie sitting on the IT. He’s perfectly aware of the devastation a mad king would cause to a dynasty + t the Lannisters has no chance of retaining the throne without having allies at their side. Does it really matter for him which blondie sits on the IT?  Sacrificing the mad king V2 is quite a small price to pay if that meant bringing the North + the Tully’s back to the fold especially since the Starks share blood with the Arryns and have Theon as a ward.