Thrice damned - Tyrion's 3rd trial and fate

[Young Gryff]

 Some of you may know that Kialo is hosting a GOT/ASOIAF tournament. This theory is a creation of my own, and my entry for the tournament. Warning, pretty big wall of text theory incoming. Without further talk I give you “Thrice damned – Tyrion Lannister’s 3rd trial”

PART I: There are countless examples of Martin using 3's, 7's and sometimes 9's in world-building (9 Great Houses, 3 walls surrounding Qarth, the Wall stretches for 300 miles) and foreshadowing - which creates room for the possibility of Tyrion being forced into a 3rd and final trial by combat.

GRRM's editor once wrote: "N]ow that Ive realized his three-fold revelation strategy, I see it in play almost every time. The first, subtle hint for the really astute readers, followed later by the more blatant hint for the less attentive, followed by just spelling it out for everyone else. Its a brilliant strategy, and highly effective."

: Tyrion’s relation and thoug"hts regarding Jaime serve as a representation of Tyrion’s character and his state of mind. While his ADwD journey descended towards darkness – a descent which will likely continue well into Winds of Winter – Tyrion’s good side and desire to do good will eventually show up again. When look"ing at potential future events one must also look back in history, as there are great many connections to the past.

As such, history tends to repeat itself in ASOIAF albeit under different circumstances, serving as foreshadowing. As an example, we have Daeron I Targaryen, "The Young Dragon" who finds incredible success in his military campaign in Dorne, later being killed under a peace banner. Robb Stark, "The Young Wolf" finds success on the battlefield only to be slain by his former allies at a wedding feast – just like Daeron I was.

PART II: I consider that before we can discern Tyrion’s future in the story we must first look elsewhere, mainly at his relationship with Jaime. Tyrion and Jaime’s stories have been connected for a long time, ever since the books started.

In ASoS both of them faced harships and how they have responded to these hardships has shaped their characters and stories moving forward. Jaime was called Kingslayer, oathbreaker, man without honor, yet after his maiming he actively tries to repair his damaged reputation and honor, pursuing what he thinks is right – by not raising arms against the Stark loyalists in AFfC, and sending Brienne after the Stark girls for example.

On the other hand, Tyrion dealt with his hardship (being judged guilty and sent to death by Tywin) in a way which is the complete opposite of what Jaime has been doing. As evidenced throughout ADwD Tyrion is now actively trying to become the very thing which others have been calling him all along – a monster. In his mind, this is what he is now. Tyrion associates himself with a monster in conversations with others 3 times throughout ADwD:

1) "Some might wonder that a duck can talk at all. No matter, Griff. You are no knight and I am Hugor Hill, a little monster. Your little monster, if you like. You have my word, all that I desire is to be leal servant of your dragon queen."

2) Though she did look Westerosi, the girl spoke not a word of the Common Tongue. Perhaps she was captured by some slaver as a child. Her bedchamber was small, but there was a Myrish carpet on the floor and a mattress stuffed with feathers in place of straw. I have seen worse. "Will you give me your name?" he asked, as he took a cup of wine from her. "No?" The wine was strong and sour and required no translation. "I suppose I shall settle for your cunt." He wiped his mouth with the back of his hand. "Have you ever bedded a monster before? Now's as good a time as any. Out of your clothes and onto your back, if it please you. Or not." – Tyrion VI, ADwD - perhaps the most meaningful of the 3, as most people would call this rape and something which is sometimes forgotten when discussing Tyrion and his arc.

3) "You are too kind." Tyrion gave her his sweetest smile. "Perhaps you would remove these charming iron bracelets as well? This monster has but half a nose, and it itches most abominably.”

Neither Jaime or Tyrion can be categorized as “definitely good” or “definitely evil”, yet one can argue that while Jaime is pushing more towards good, so is Tyrion edging forward into darkness – at least for now. Jaime and Tyrion’s morally opposite journey is to be remembered as we are advancing further down into this thread.

PART III: While Tyrion is heading towards a dark path, I think that there is always light at the end of the tunnel. Tyrion may eventually “break free” of his monster persona, ultimately trying to do what he thinks is good for the realm – but in doing so, he will be judged by others. Tyrion starts his journey towards Essos and spends most of early-mid ADwD hating Jaime, and wishing for his death:

1) I should have killed the eunuch as well. A little more blood on his hands, what would it matter? He could not say what had stayed his dagger. Not gratitude. Varys had saved him from a headsman's sword, but only because Jaime had compelled him. Jaime … no, better not to think of Jaime. – Tyrion I, ADwD

2) Tyrion pictured how his sister's head might look up there, with tar in her golden hair and flies buzzing in and out of her mouth. Yes, and Jaime must have the spike beside her, he decided. No one must ever come between my brother and my sister - Tyrion I, ADwD.

3) The lords of the Seven Kingdoms did make rather much of their sigils, Tyrion had to admit. "Very well," he conceded. "A Lannister is not a lion. Yet I am still my father's son, and Jaime and Cersei are mine to kill." – Tyrion I, ADwD.

Towards the end of the book however Tyrion starts to miss Jaime:

“I'll ask for that next time I get back to Flea Bottom. What do you miss, Halfman?" Jaime, thought Tyrion. Shae. Tysha. My wife, I miss my wife, the wife I hardly knew. " – Tyrion XII, ADwD.

Tyrion’s relation and thoughts regarding Jaime serve as a representation of Tyrion’s character and his state of mind. While his ADwD journey descended towards darkness – a descent which will likely continue well into Winds of Winter – Tyrion’s good side and desire to do good will eventually show up again.

PART IV: Tyrion’s dreams and greyscale - Tyrion associates greyscale and stone men with his father Tywin throughout his journey in ADwD:

1) Conversation between Illyrio and Tyrion: "One hears talk of stone men as well." "They are real enough, poor damned things. But why speak of such things? The day is too fine for such talk. We shall see the Rhoyne soon, and there you shall be rid of Illyrio and his big belly. Till then, let us drink and dream. We have sweet wine and savories to enjoy. Why dwell upon disease and death?" Why indeed? Tyrion heard the thrum of a crossbow once again, and wondered.” – Tyrion II, ADwD.

After this conversation Tyrion’s thoughts wander straight to his father after discussing death, disease and the stone men.

2) “He dreamt of his lord father and the Shrouded Lord. He dreamt that they were one and the same, and when his father wrapped stone arms around him and bent to give him his grey kiss, he woke with his mouth dry and rusty with the taste of blood and his heart hammering in his chest.” - Tyrion VI, ADwD.

This dream happens after his encounter with stone men, his subsequent fall in Rhoyne and rescue by JonCon. It serves as a direct link between the Shrouded Lord, which is the one in charge of the stone men (people affected by greyscale) and his father, Tywin.

3) “The stump of Tyrion's nose was itching fiercely. He gave it a scratch. The old woman may be right. This place is no good. I feel as if I am back in the privy again, watching my father die. He would go mad as well if he had to spend his days in this grey soup whilst his flesh and bones turned to stone.” – Tyrion V, ADwD

While not a direct link between greyscale and Tywin, it is important to note the fact that he associates the area in which the Stone men dwell with his father's death scene, the privy where his father died.

4) “That night Tyrion Lannister dreamed of a battle that turned the hills of Westeros as red as blood. He was in the midst of it, dealing death with an axe as big as he was, fighting side by side with Barristan the Bold and Bittersteel as dragons wheeled across the sky above them. In the dream he had two heads, both noseless. His father led the enemy, so he slew him once again. Then he killed his brother, Jaime, hacking at his face until it was a red ruin, laughing every time he struck a blow. Only when the fight was finished did he realize that his second head was weeping. “ – Tyrion II, ADwD

It is my belief that this dream represents several events rather than only one. While “dragons wheeled across the sky above them” might hint at another “Dance with Dragons” battle, this theory will deal only with the second part of the dream – “His father led the enemy, so he slew him once again.” Tywin is dead, Tyrion killed him back in ASoS. It is my belief that this part of the dream is a metaphor for Tyrion slaying greyscale in Westeros before it is spread on the whole continent, as he previously associated greyscale with his father.

PART V: Greyscale? How will greyscale erupt in Westeros? Greyscale is on its way to Westeros in the form of Jon Connington. If greyscale will start to spread, it will most likely be due to him. Grey plague, greyscales’ cousin, once erupted in Oldtown and in order to stop it from spreading Lord Hightower barred the gates and let the disease run its course, as evidenced in this Pycelle/Jaime conversation:

"Ser Jaime, I have seen terrible things in my time," the old man said. "Wars, battles, murders most foul . . . I was a boy in Oldtown when the grey plague took half the city and three-quarters of the Citadel. Lord Hightower burned every ship in port, closed the gates, and commanded his guards to slay all those who tried to flee, be they men, women, or babes in arms. They killed him when the plague had run its course. On the very day he reopened the port, they dragged him from his horse and slit his throat, and his young son's as well. To this day the ignorant in Oldtown will spit at the sound of his name, but Quenton Hightower did what was needed. Your father was that sort of man as well. A man who did what was needed." – Jaime I, AFfC

Not only does this quote tell us about the grey plague, greyscales cousin, but also lets us know about what kind of man Lord Hightower was – a person akin to Tywin, who did what was needed. Now who do we know in the story who would act like Tywin did, like Lord Hightower did?

1) “The lords of the Seven Kingdoms did make rather much of their sigils, Tyrion had to admit. "Very well," he conceded. "A Lannister is not a lion. Yet I am still my father's son, and Jaime and Cersei are mine to kill." – Tyrion I, AFfC

2) "Jaime," she said, tugging on his ear, "sweetling, I have known you since you were a babe at Joanna's breast. You smile like Gerion and fight like Tyg, and there's some of Kevan in you, else you would not wear that cloak . . . but Tyrion is Tywin's son, not you. – Jaime V, AFfC.

While the case can be made that Tyrion could potentially be Aerys’ biological son like some people think (and I acknowledge the possibility) Tyrion is -still- Tywin’s son due to nurture. He was raised by Tywin in a way, and acts like Tywin would. Tyrion is his Tywin’s son (in nature if not biologically so) as evidenced by these quotes. He will deal with a potential greyscale eruption just like Tywin would. Just like Lord Hightower did with the grey plague – but he will be judged guilty by the ignorant for it, just like Lord Hightower has been. Tyrion containing greyscale to one city, effectively stopping the disease from spreading to other cities and thus saving the lives of others, but at the same time killing most of the inhabitants of the affected city is the reason for which he will be put on trial for a 3rd time – his 3rd and final trial by combat. Unlike the other two trials he’s faced this time he is guilty, yet only for those who don’t realize how many more lives he has saved by containing the greyscale to a single city.

Conclusion: Going back to the Jaime discussion earlier, I have to note that at this point Jaime and Tyrion’s journeys will parallel each other again rather than stray into opposite directions. Jaime once saved KL from Aerys, saving the city – he wasn’t recognized as the city’s savior. Tyrion saved KL at the Battle of Blackwater – he wasn’t acknowledged as his savior, Tywin was (Tywin even received the title of savior of the city). Fast forward to future events, many people believe that Jaime will once again save the city from Cersei – Tyrion containing greyscale to the city (even if more than half of its inhabitants will perish) will serve as Tyrion once again saving the city, and as such paralleling Jaime’s arc once again. To conclude, I believe that while Tyrion will be subject to a 3rd trial by combat due to people condemning him for closing down the city and eliminating greyscale this way, I do not think that he will die as a direct consequence of the trial's outcome - he will survive it, just like he survived the other two. I do not see his story ending this way.

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