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If Ser Vardis killed Bronn ... would the Stark family be annihilated?


Ser Meryn Frey

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Say Ser Vardis wins the match, and they execute Tyrion.

What do you think would happen?

Obviously the lord Tywin would unleash all the might of Casterly Rock against the Riverlands, who would fall instantly, and this time he would have executed  Edmure, Hoster, and the Blackfish.

What next? Robert is in the capital, with Ned as his hand, but perhaps that hand-ship is gone the moment they found out Tyrion was dead.

Uhm?

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Well a good portion of the blame falls on the vale in that situation, is Tywin going to march without crown authority on the riverlands and wipe out the Tullys and then move to try and wipe out the Arryns? From a strategic point of view it's essentially impossible. He'd die in a battle, be executed for breaking the kings peace, lose his army at the bloody gate, etc. His chances of a positive outcome are really next to none. 

If tyrion had been executed by Lysa, I view tywins reaction to be something more along the lines of him reaching out to Robert to have her stripped of rank and title, followed by possibly myrcella being betrothed to robin to keep the vale in the fold, and to have robin in kings landing without officially calling him a hostage. 

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I feel it is important to note that at this time I believe Tywin has already attacked the Riverlands. So he has already attacked another Great House in defense of his son. Because he has his last name. So I don't know if the "King's peace" has been upheld at all at this point.

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21 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

So, you're asking, if Tyrion had died as the convicted murderer of Jon Arryn, Hand of the King and the man who was like a father to Robert I Baratheon, and then the murderer's father went on an insane murdering spree of his own, would everyone just stand and look idly by?

Methinks, not.

Bran. Not Arryn.

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7 hours ago, Azai said:

I feel it is important to note that at this time I believe Tywin has already attacked the Riverlands. So he has already attacked another Great House in defense of his son. Because he has his last name. So I don't know if the "King's peace" has been upheld at all at this point.

This is a valid point. Tywin knows Robert is indecisive, so why dither around demanding satisfaction when you can just go and take it for yourself? He would do as he did in the proper timeline. Tyrion dying as a convicted murderer wouldn't change that much until the Battle of the Blackwater.

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Tywin would still march against the Riverlands at his earliest opportunity and leave the Vale alone. The lion may love paying his debts but he's not stupid. Taking on the Vale in their own stretch of land would be madness.

The Vale would still remain neutral. Lysa does what LF says and LF wanted the Vale to remain neutral. 

The only difference would be the way Edmure is treated. The Lannisters would chop his head off at their earliest opportunity. A trout for a lion, a heir for a heir, a brother for a brother.  

Regarding Robert....well, its relatively easy to get dispose off him right? If Cersei can do it then imagine what Tywin could cook up. 

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If Tyrion dies, it's one helluva lot harder for the Vale to not get involved in the fighting. Perhaps not to the point of swearing allegiance to Robb as King of the North, Riverlands, and Vale, but definitely allied with the North and Riverlands against the Lannisters.

That would result in arguably the single-largest, most powerful faction in the civil war. It's certainly enough to claim a significant advantage over the Lannisters. Possibly enough to break the Lannister armies in the field before the Battle of the Blackwater happens.

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3 hours ago, Red Man Racey said:

Lysa accuses Tyrion of murdering Jon Arryn. That's what the trial is for.

In fact, is for the both.

Catelyn Stark took a step forward. “You are accused of sending a hired knife to slay my son Bran in his bed, and of conspiring to murder Lord Jon Arryn, the Hand of the King.”

 

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3 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

In fact, is for the both.

Catelyn Stark took a step forward. “You are accused of sending a hired knife to slay my son Bran in his bed, and of conspiring to murder Lord Jon Arryn, the Hand of the King.”

 

That's right. I was misremembering the event and thinking that Lysa had pretty much taken it over and not pressed the attempted murder of Bran, instead choosing to focus on her own agenda.

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Hmm. I guess the question is if Robert would believe that Tyrion indeed was guilty. If not, the story wouldn't be changed very much except for the Tullys being exterminated. If he did believe it, the story might have gone the opposite way, with Robert takin up arms against his wife's family. Facing eachother head-on, Tywin wouldn't have much of a chance, really. It would be, essentially, the Westerlands against the rest of Westeros (except perhaps Dorne ... who, however, might have joined if they were promised justice for Elia and her children). The Ironborn would remain neutral or join Robert, depending on how bitter Balon is at the moment

Unless, of course ... Cersei manages to kill Robert before all this, but I doubt that would be the case if the king was alive and wanted to defeat the Lannisters.

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