If Aegon is false, why would Varys lie?

[TMIFairy]

15 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

very long post snipped

WOW!

Thanks for the infodump!

I now feel that I know everything!

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

7 minutes ago, TMIFairy said:

WOW!

Thanks for the infodump!

I now feel that I know everything!

I try to show support for my assumptions and conclusions. The bottom line is that by the end of Storm the reader should be asking who is Illyrio really supporting. And that's when the Blackfyre buildup begins. 

[The Fattest Leech]

@Lost Melnibonean Nice! I especially like the point of how the realm really means Aegon. So true. 

[Davjos]

Wow I love you @Lost Melnibonean. To reproduce that knowledge. Damn. 

 

Personally I'm in the fAegon/Blackfyre camp myself. Assuming Varys really wants the realm to be as chaotic and unstable as possible for fAegon's arrival, he should have moles in the Tyrel 'camp'. There are some candidates/evidence for this IIRC but unlike @Lost Melnibonean I'm sadly incapable of producing this off the cuf. 

These moles could have easily fed the Tyrels with enough information to actively spy on Pycelle/Kevan. Information of a certain tunnel leading behind maester's chamber should be enough for the Tyrells to place a man there. Pycelle ofcourse is obviously a Lannister man so the Tyrells have enough motivation. This all means it should be quite easy for Varys to cause the Tyrells to be spying on the death of Kevan: 

 

If I wanted fAegon to make a claim that is believed by the Realm/the South, what better way than to make the Tyrells overhear the incredibly knowledgable Varys make an honest confession to a dying man. So for me this is enough reason for the schemer to lie. 

 

Clearly this isn't supported by a lot of textual evidence but the Littlefinger quote above against Alayne should be enough reason for people to never stop lying. 

[Cymorococh]

I haven't gone back to check the text but nowhere in the quotes in this thread does Varys say 'Aegon Targaryen' or 'Aegon, son of Rhaegar'. He also doesn't say he's the rightful heir, just that he has been raised to be king.

[Corvus corone]

@Lost Melnibonean: Impressive! I read the books again last year and had a particular look on hints on "Aegon" before AFFC, but obviously missed some.

11 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

We see Illyrio, incognito, one more time before we meet him again, much later, with Tyrion Dance in Arya III, Game 32. Here we learn that Varys is in league with Illyrio, and notice who gives the command: Illyrio, and who follows the order: Varys. Varys is working for Illyrio, not the other way around.

That's not how I interpret their encounter. Illyrio's request didn't seem like a command to me, but rather like an urge because he fears running out of time. They are working on two different "aspects" of the same plan at remote places, and have to coordinate. When events develop at a different pace, somoeone will have to catch up if the other event is simply too dynamic. For me, that's not a good hint that Illyrio is the "senior partner" in that plot, especially given that Varys might be a Blackfyre himself.

There is also another problem: Varys came to King's landing some years before Robert's rebellion and the birth of the true and the false Aegon. If his paln has been to put a Blackfyre (or another pretender) on the throne from the very beginning, who might it be? According to the Blackfyre theory, "Aegon" might be the son of Illyrio and his Blackfyre wife, but I cannot really imagine that the initil goal was to put them on the Iron throne. The current plan only works because Rhaegar's son and Young Griff happen to be of the same age, but no one could have predicted this. Or could one? Rhaegar was betrothed to Elia in 280, and Aegon was born in 281 or 282. One or two years between the true and the false wouldn't make a big difference, at least at a teenager's age. Depending on the time Varys arrived at King's Landing, he might have known that a new Blackfyre was born or at least fathered. Can we further narrow down that point of time?

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

16 hours ago, cgrav said:

The obvious point would be to avoid suspicion in the first place, which is a lot easier without affirmative "facts" that can be contradicted. Nobody expects him to be omniscient, so if he doesn't know some detail, he just doesn't know. 

But what does it have to do with the event discussed in this thread, with Varys taking the stage and delivering a speech to Kevan Lannister, after having shot him with a crossbow? "Avoiding suspicion" is hardly the fitting description.

[Lost Melnibonean]

41 minutes ago, Cymorococh said:

I haven't gone back to check the text but nowhere in the quotes in this thread does Varys say 'Aegon Targaryen' or 'Aegon, son of Rhaegar'. He also doesn't say he's the rightful heir, just that he has been raised to be king.

No, but when Kevan says Aegon was killed, Varys at least appears to correct him. If Varys doesn't outright lie, he certainly misleads. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

20 minutes ago, Corvus corone said:

@Lost Melnibonean: Impressive! I read the books again last year and had a particular look on hints on "Aegon" before AFFC, but obviously missed some.

That's not how I interpret their encounter. Illyrio's request didn't seem like a command to me, but rather like an urge because he fears running out of time. They are working on two different "aspects" of the same plan at remote places, and have to coordinate. When events develop at a different pace, somoeone will have to catch up if the other event is simply too dynamic. For me, that's not a good hint that Illyrio is the "senior partner" in that plot, especially given that Varys might be a Blackfyre himself.

I have an assistant at work. Technically, she reports to the office manager, so she doesn't actually report to me. We have been working together ten years, so we are friends. She has been working in the field for many more years than me. I ask for her opinion, and I rely on her expertise and experience. When I need her to do things, I never give proper commands such as I learned on the Army, but I say things like please, and we need to do this. But I am the senior partner in our relationship, and to keep her job, she needs to follow my direction. 

25 minutes ago, Corvus corone said:

There is also another problem: Varys came to King's landing some years before Robert's rebellion and the birth of the true and the false Aegon. If his paln has been to put a Blackfyre (or another pretender) on the throne from the very beginning, who might it be? According to the Blackfyre theory, "Aegon" might be the son of Illyrio and his Blackfyre wife, but I cannot really imagine that the initil goal was to put them on the Iron throne. The current plan only works because Rhaegar's son and Young Griff happen to be of the same age, but no one could have predicted this. Or could one? Rhaegar was betrothed to Elia in 280, and Aegon was born in 281 or 282. One or two years between the true and the false wouldn't make a big difference, at least at a teenager's age. Depending on the time Varys arrived at King's Landing, he might have known that a new Blackfyre was born or at least fathered. Can we further narrow down that point of time?

In Tyrion VI, Clash 25, Tyrion confronts Pycelle, and Pycelle confirms that he has acted on behalf of House Lannister since at least Robert’s Rebellion, hoping that Tywin would set himself up as king. (Or perhaps that he would take young Aegon in hand and rule through him?) But then Pycelle explains why Tywin could not capitalize. . .

Quote

". . .  Robert was too strong, and Lord Stark moved too swiftly . . . "

The same reason would explain why Illyrio could not have seized the throne then, if that had been his desire. 

[Stormking902]

I think Varys respects Kevin and wanted him to know his death wasnt for nothing but to usher in a new world with a restored Targaryan dynasty under the son of the silver prince. 

[Sondre]

I for one humours the idea that Aegon is real, just out of GRRM spite for filling up to the expectations. 

But for reals, there was only ever one real dragon. Viserys. The question about Aegon is if he is a Blackfyre or just a commoner. Obviously Illyrio and Varys has some yet to be shown agenda. Doubtful it is our version of "the common good", as Illyrio don't mind himself a little bit of slavery. Why would Varys lie to Kevan? Well, why on earth wouldn't he. While he might not share our views on justice for slaves, he might respect some other kind of ideology. Like a proto-fascism type of nationalism. Maybe he gave Kevan just enough of exposition as he thought Kevan was a good man under Varys own school of thought. That is not much of a stretch as it is literally the explanation he gives to the man himself. At the same time he wasn't showing much of his hand anyway, as GC was enroute.

No, the question is about Dany. I can't find a single piece of evidence that disputes the fact that she might be a fake. As a matter of fact I think we deliberately hit over the head with the lie of her origin every time they name her titles. She was nothing but a con to marry of to Khal Drogo. As they probably inserted the myth of the Stallion that mounts the world in his head so he would go off chasing her. I don't think they meant for Viserys to die, but I don't think he was plan A either. They meant for Aegon to be king, and Viserys to at best provide troops to his conquest, more likely to be a distraction and at worst just disappear in the east. The wild card here is the dornish. Unless Doran lies to Arianne, which is no easy guess at all, they don't know about Aegon, yet they do know about Viserys and Dany. How they fit into this puzzle is beyond me at the moment and would just be pure speculation.

[LynnS]

16 hours ago, Fencer said:

To me, this implies that either:

• Varys knows someone is observing all of this, and wants to plant information

I wouldn't discount glass candles and Vary's experience with a certain man:

Quote

A Clash of Kings - Tyrion IV

"And if Her Grace were to discover your intentions before your plans are ripe?"

"Why," he said, "then I would know the man who told her to be my certain enemy." And when Varys giggled, he thought, Three.

A Clash of Kings - Tyrion X

"Nor do I, but . . ." This pause was longer than the one before, and when Varys spoke again his voice was different somehow. "I was an orphan boy apprenticed to a traveling folly. Our master owned a fat little cog and we sailed up and down the narrow sea performing in all the Free Cities and from time to time in Oldtown and King's Landing.

"One day at Myr, a certain man came to our folly. After the performance, he made an offer for me that my master found too tempting to refuse. I was in terror. I feared the man meant to use me as I had heard men used small boys, but in truth the only part of me he had need of was my manhood. He gave me a potion that made me powerless to move or speak, yet did nothing to dull my senses. With a long hooked blade, he sliced me root and stem, chanting all the while. I watched him burn my manly parts on a brazier. The flames turned blue, and I heard a voice answer his call, though I did not understand the words they spoke.

 

Vary's motivation that he does what he does for 'the children' may have something to do with sorcery and the use of children.  A certain man is someone whom he knows but does not name. His certain enemy who is Cersei's new master of whisperers.   I'm guessing this is Qyburn who has his own methods for discovery.  

 

[Prince Yourwetdream Aeryn]

Maybe there is a man who has one thousand and one eyes. And maybe this man has a daughter who can see what is happening in the flames.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

30 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I wouldn't discount glass candles and Vary's experience with a certain man:

Vary's motivation that he does what he does for 'the children' may have something to do with sorcery and the use of children.  A certain man is someone whom he knows but does not name. His certain enemy who is Cersei's new master of whisperers.   I'm guessing this is Qyburn who has his own methods for discovery.  

 

Whoa, whoa, whoa, now let's just back up a minute there, man, are you suggesting that Qyburn was the dude that burned Varys's junk? Or are you just suggesting that Varys is employing a double blind just in case Qyburn is listening in? 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 minute ago, Grazdan zo Azer said:

Maybe there is a man who has one thousand and one eyes.

 

There always is, but does Varys know that? 

[LynnS]

23 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Whoa, whoa, whoa, now let's just back up a minute there, man, are you suggesting that Qyburn was the dude that burned Varys's junk? Or are you just suggesting that Varys is employing a double blind just in case Qyburn is listening in? 

Both.  A certain enemy who is in service to Cersei replacing Varys and a certain man who burned his junk. Somebody Varys can now identify.  You know the grand-fatherly type.  Why does this surprise you?  Qyburn is a vivisectionist.  He gave nothing to Varys to dull the pain and he opened bodies of the living at the Citadel.

Also, I'm a lady, not a man.

[Corvus corone]

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I have an assistant at work. Technically, she reports to the office manager, so she doesn't actually report to me. We have been working together ten years, so we are friends. She has been working in the field for many more years than me. I ask for her opinion, and I rely on her expertise and experience. When I need her to do things, I never give proper commands such as I learned on the Army, but I say things like please, and we need to do this. But I am the senior partner in our relationship, and to keep her job, she needs to follow my direction.

I don't say it's impossible, but their roles in that encounter don't seem to be clearly defined with respect to hierarchy, and unless we see them interact once again we cannot tell for sure. Varys is the crucial player when it comes to putting Aegon on the Iron Throne, and this gives him power over Illyrio. Given that Varys might be Serra's brother, all those plans depend on Varys not claiming his "birthright" (OK, it's very unlikely that anyone would accept him on the throne). So one end I could imagine for him is that Illyrio has him killed in order to keep "Aegon's" secret safe, leading to the final revalation. But that's pure speculation.

 

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

In Tyrion VI, Clash 25, Tyrion confronts Pycelle, and Pycelle confirms that he has acted on behalf of House Lannister since at least Robert’s Rebellion, hoping that Tywin would set himself up as king. (Or perhaps that he would take young Aegon in hand and rule through him?) But then Pycelle explains why Tywin could not capitalize. . .

The same reason would explain why Illyrio could not have seized the throne then, if that had been his desire. 

Possible, but likely? I'm not sure. Varys's role in Robert's rebellion is not easy to understand. In particular, he tried to convince Aerys not to open the gates to Tywin, a fact he later took advantage of, so he might have had different plans in the beginning. And the other thing is: The whole scheme only works because people are supposed to believe that "Aegon" is indeed Rhaegar's son. A Blackfyre, especially a woman, wouldn't be simply accepted, given that they didn't have important supporters in Westeros and that Viserys and Rhaella were still alive after the sack of King's Landing. The only convincing plot is to disguise a Blackfyre as a Targaryen, but that's not likely to have been the initial plan.

 

5 hours ago, Sondre said:

No, the question is about Dany. I can't find a single piece of evidence that disputes the fact that she might be a fake. As a matter of fact I think we deliberately hit over the head with the lie of her origin every time they name her titles. She was nothing but a con to marry of to Khal Drogo. As they probably inserted the myth of the Stallion that mounts the world in his head so he would go off chasing her. I don't think they meant for Viserys to die, but I don't think he was plan A either. They meant for Aegon to be king, and Viserys to at best provide troops to his conquest, more likely to be a distraction and at worst just disappear in the east. The wild card here is the dornish. Unless Doran lies to Arianne, which is no easy guess at all, they don't know about Aegon, yet they do know about Viserys and Dany. How they fit into this puzzle is beyond me at the moment and would just be pure speculation.

I'm spoiled by Preston Jacobs, and though I consider most of his speculations to be too far-fetched and just arranged to fit into his conspiracy theories, I cannot deny that some hints are very confusing, namely the lemon tree in Braavos and that Rhaella gave birth to a daughter at the age of almost 40 after several miscarriages and children who died as babies. But the Undying seem to support the official version as they call Dany "child of storm" and "daughter of death", so im quite convinced that she really is at least Rhaella's daughter, but maybe to a different father ("child of three", but you can also interpret this a "one out of three children"). Either way, Daenerys is Targaryen, about that I'm sure. But maybe there are some gaps in her past that have to be filled.

[Sondre]

1 hour ago, Corvus corone said:

I'm spoiled by Preston Jacobs, and though I consider most of his speculations too far-fetched and just arranged to fit into his conspiracy theories, I cannot deny that some hints are very confusing, namely the lemon tree in Braavos and that Rhaella gave birth to a daughter at the age of almost 40 after several miscarriages and children who died as babies. But the Undying seem to support the official version as they call Dany "child of storm" and "daughter of death", so im quite convinced that she really is at least Rhaella's daughter, but maybe to a different father ("child of three", but you can also interpret this a "one out of three children"). Either way, Daenerys is Targaryen, about that I'm sure. But maybe there are some gaps in her past that have to be filled.

Well, yeah. Preston goes of on the deep end for the fun of it. Lemon tree is just such a huge Chekhov Climate that it can't be without some meaning to it. I refuse to chalk it down to writers error.

Child of storm and daughter of death might just be the storm and death she brings along. She has ravaged every city and social structure she has encountered. Also, Aerys can hardly be called more "death-y" than many other rulers. RR was not a bloody rebellion by rebellion standards. I'm also not sold on the Undying visions. We know absolutely nothing about them or their powers. They might tell her what she wants to hear, or what they mistakenly believes to be true. But sure yeah, I won't dismiss it as pro-targ Dany.

Yet, it is just a too cool premise and makes a lot of narrative sense that she is the real fake. Meaning her hunt for a "fake" real Aegon og fAegon will lead her to build a case against herself. That is a sexy end to a loop that at the moment makes no sense.

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 hours ago, LynnS said:

Both.  A certain enemy who is in service to Cersei replacing Varys and a certain man who burned his junk. Somebody Varys can now identify.  You know the grand-fatherly type.  Why does this surprise you?  Qyburn is a vivisectionist.  He gave nothing to Varys to dull the pain and he opened bodies of the living at the Citadel.

Also, I'm a lady, not a man.

Where and when I grew up "man" and "dude" were gender-neutral, slang terms. 

[LynnS]

23 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Where and when I grew up "man" and "dude" were gender-neutral, slang terms. 

Then I'm older than you.