If Aegon is false, why would Varys lie?

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

Then I'm older than you.

I don't know about that. Southern California has been pretty laid back for a long time. 

[cgrav]

On 8/24/2017 at 4:27 AM, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

But what does it have to do with the event discussed in this thread, with Varys taking the stage and delivering a speech to Kevan Lannister, after having shot him with a crossbow? "Avoiding suspicion" is hardly the fitting description.

His method of deception is a character observation. Selective honesty is in his personality, so I'm inclined to think that his words in the epilogue are true, even if in a narrower sense the presentation suggests.

This is Varys coming out as a conspirator. I think he wants the threat to be taken seriously in order to cause the most chaos in the Red Keep. To that end, it's better for the threat to be credible.

[Sullen]

Occam's razor...

He's causing an additional source of confusion and distress to Kevan before he dies, as well as the metanarrative excuse that it allows the author to mislead the readers some more about the identity of Aegon.

My two cents.

[Hiigara129]

I will say that the whole Varys -Kevan scene is one of the things people love to point to as proof that Aegon is real. Really it's the only semi-viable proof of the whole affair. But in my opinion the monologue/speech wasn't meant for Kevan but for another audience. In AFFC it's mentioned that many of Varys's spies have came to Qyburn after the former's departure, so it's not entirely unreasonable to think that some of his little birds have gone over as well. Perhaps the speech is meant for one of them to here and report back to Qyburn and the small Council. It would spread more chaos if Cersei knows that Varys killed her uncle and could strike at her anytime.

Or perhaps the speech was a message for the little birds to spread across the capital. After all, it does have a sort of proto-populist feel to it, so maybe the idea is to spread it around the lower-classes in a bid to give Aegon a mob-style power base. It wouldn't be the first time royals or their supports have courted the lower classes and Varys would be well aware of their potential power thanks to the recent riot.

Hell he could merely be screwing with Kevan to make his death even more agonizing. It's like telling your dying enemy "don't worry about your family, you'll be seeing them real soon." Or something to that effect. Now I could be completely off in but to me each seems more likely than Varys deciding on a great monologue to a dying man for no reason. He's not the kind of man to do anything on a whim or brag to a dying man.

[AlaskanSandman]

On 8/23/2017 at 4:05 AM, Reginald blackfield said:

This concerns the f(Aegon) theory, which I am actually on the fence about. I do think that the cloth dragon on a pole in the House of the Undying suggests that we will see a false Targaryen, but there are in my opinion a few problems with the idea of Aegon being false. One problem for me being the fact that Varys mentioned that he was Aegon to a Kevan Lannister. Why would he bother to lie if he was dying?

Yea, this has always bothered me too. Combined with the fact that supposedly, Vary's whollllee plan is F/aegon or even Aegon Targaryen this whole time, even though Varys came to Westeros before Aegon was born. Even if F/aegon was born already, how could Illyrio and he know that F/aegon would grow up to look so much like Rhaegar or a Targaryen so much? 

I can't help but feel like Vary's plan goes beyond Aegon Targaryen. Like, maybe Illyrio's whole plan is because of Sarra and the whole Blackfyre thing, and Vary's owes him so he helps, but why come to Westeros before Aegon's birth? Or assume it was at the same time of this birth. Could it really be they were just that confident in a plan with baby F/aegon?

Or does Varys, master of Whispers, know of the dark forces coming down from the North and have a plan? Or does he want to just destroy all magic since he lost his package to Fire Magic? I cant help but feel that Varys's deeper motives are tied to this. It's obviously still on his mind as he finds the guy who mutilated him and finally kills him presumably. I like to think Varys at least got an answer to his question of "Who answered back from the flames?" question. 

If he wanted to really rub it into Kevan, why not just tell him the truth about F/aegon. Why tell him anything at all really? Sure, i guess some one could be listening. How well would evidence like this hold up? Thats right up there with Jon being the child of Rhaegar and Lyann. Means nothing as far as lords and kings are concerned with out some sort of proof, right? I mean, it seems like there's more proof at hand to show he's Aegon rather than F/aegon. Varys can vouch for smuggling him out, and Illyrio and Connington to raising him. The boy looks just like Rhaegar as per Connington. It seems to me that the in world characters lack any real evidence to show the possibility of him being a Blackfyre either way. Or am i just missing something. I mean, even if he is fake, they have soooo much evidence to convince everyone. Unless whipping out the sword Blackfyre works against him?

Note on the whole cloth dragon/fake dragon thing.In Martin's early layout, he mentions about Viserys being killed by Droggo, putting an end to the Targaryen pretender. I wonder if this still made it's way in some how. On another thread pointing out odd things about Dany and her past. They point out that Dany can speak Valyrian while Visery's cant. Instead, when trying to speak to where the Dothraki wont hear him and get upset, that he speaks in the common tongue. Is this an idea that Martin dropped, or just adapted into the Blackfyre plot, or adapted into something else? Or did he follow through with it? It's just interesting cause the first mention of the Blackfyre rebellion isn't till the 3rd book a Storm of Swords. Yet the cloth dragon is mentioned in ACOK. There's alot of world building and expanding he's done as fan service in the last couple books. Is the Blackfyre plot just world building and a distraction to the real Targaryen pretender (Mayber Dany?), or did Martin plan that it was the Blackfyres way back in ACOK before ever mentioning the Blackfyres?