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Col Cinders

Golden Company arrives so what?

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On 08/24/2017 at 9:33 PM, Col Cinders said:

Assume the golden company arrives at KL.  Assume that the Lannister army is severely weakened.

What can Cersei do with them?

What are the possible targets?

Well, Dragonstone, I guess? Their priority should be to prevent Daenerys from establishing permanently in a stronghold…

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On 8/24/2017 at 0:33 PM, Col Cinders said:

Head north and attack Winterfel?  Ok this might be an aggressive play.  If she can sack Winterfel and leave it as a totally destroyed ruin then Dany will lose an important outpost in the war against the undead.

I'd take White Harbor first. It's larger and richer, not nearly as well defended, and right on the sea. Then wait and see if Jon and Dany turn back south. If they do, you can decide whether to hold it, raze it, or just abandon it; if not, you can move on Winterfell with impunity.

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9 hours ago, Yoren Luck said:

I could have sworn that Jaime said something recently about there being 100,000 'Dothraki screamers' or something along those lines, and was pretty certain that Dany had 100,000 of them in tow when she left Essos.  I could be wrong though, or mixing numbers from the book with numbers from the show.  

I recall hearing the number "100.000" thrown around as well.
The wiki (which may or may not be right) also states that she has a 100.000 dothraki light cavalry under her command.

As for the Golden Company, they may or may not be a red herring.
If they do show up, Ser Jorah Mormont probably has some valuable insight on how to defeat them, seeing as he once served under them, before he swore his loyalty to Viserys, and by extension, Daenerys.

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8 minutes ago, MinscS2 said:

I recall hearing the number "100.000" thrown around as well.
The wiki (which may or may not be right) also states that she has a 100.000 dothraki light cavalry under her command.

As for the Golden Company, they may or may not be a red herring.
If they do show up, Ser Jorah Mormont probably has some valuable insight on how to defeat them, seeing as he once served under them, before he swore his loyalty to Viserys, and by extension, Daenerys.

Meh, they should just have Arya assassinate the Whore Queen before the Night King falls. One swift poke and Cersei is done for. One clean arrow to the heart, and the Mountain won't know what hit his mistress. :P No one would complain if that happened, right? We've been hoping that Arya ends the arrogant bitch for years.

Oh gawd, I hope Cersei travels north during the armistice (perhaps she'll feel safer with an army of her own men surrounding her? Who knows. If that happens, Arya will be key. Cersei will 'die' from natural causes. :P  Or Arya will slice off Jamie Lannister's face, wear it like a trophy, and fulfill the Valanqar prophecy. The prophecy said nuthing 'bout a younger sister wearing a younger brother's face when murdering Cersei :D

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The Golden Company arrives commanded by Jon Connington dear friend of Rhaegar - Howland Reed gets a message to him to parley and informs him of certain truths. Golden company switches sides. Simple.

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10 hours ago, falcotron said:

Ha, I didn't even realize I'd just assumed that was what's going to happen, without even realizing it was an assumption. But yeah, it does seem the most likely way for the story to go.

I'm more curious how they're going to end his story. I suspect he's going to die in a blaze of glory, maybe right after killing Euron, or maybe sacrificing himself later to make good with the Starks, but I'd love it if they found some less conventional but still satisfying end for him. Succeeding Aeron in the Drowned Men doesn't seem to fit him. Maybe just Frodo without the invitation to elf-heaven—everyone he cares about has either died or gone on to live happily ever after without needing anything from him, but he retires to a somewhat solitary but not bad life?

Ya I agree. At this point the dude deserves a decent death. I'm just hoping the show doesn't destroy his character when they try to off him. 

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5 hours ago, the tower of albion said:

The Golden Company arrives commanded by Jon Connington dear friend of Rhaegar - Howland Reed gets a message to him to parley and informs him of certain truths. Golden company switches sides. Simple.

Yeah, a character who's never even been mentioned in the show (although he was mentioned once in the DVD extras, the one about the history of Robert's Rebellion) is going to convince the Blackfyre army in exile to back the Targaryen heir. Makes sense.

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15 hours ago, falcotron said:

I'd take White Harbor first. It's larger and richer, not nearly as well defended, and right on the sea. Then wait and see if Jon and Dany turn back south. If they do, you can decide whether to hold it, raze it, or just abandon it; if not, you can move on Winterfell with impunity.

This seems like the most likely scenario if they do a plot line with Cersei betraying a truce by sending Euron's forces somewhere as Dany/Jon/etc are off fighting the undead.  I like it actually, because it would create kind of a 'war on two fronts' situation for them

Does the Night King have any range with his ability to raise the dead?  Because if he does, and presuming he gets beyond the wall...I'd like to see Euron and his reavers wipe out all of White Harbor, killing every last one for the message it sends.  Then, the Night King raises them remotely, and the dead in turn kill Euron and all of his forces.  Now Dany and Jon are faced with having a massive dead army to the north and to the south and can only really escape by holing up at Winterfell.

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I would like to see the Iron Bore returning to their ships after attacking White Harbor only to find the ships hopelessly immobilized in crushing ice.  They turn on Euron for leading them in a venture with no profit and kill him. Now they must choose to fight the undead or Jon/Dany or both.

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18 hours ago, Yoren Luck said:

Does the Night King have any range with his ability to raise the dead?  Because if he does, and presuming he gets beyond the wall...I'd like to see Euron and his reavers wipe out all of White Harbor, killing every last one for the message it sends.  Then, the Night King raises them remotely, and the dead in turn kill Euron and all of his forces.  Now Dany and Jon are faced with having a massive dead army to the north and to the south and can only really escape by holing up at Winterfell.

Yeah, that could work. Even in the show, without the plethora of small hints from the books, it seems like Euron's destiny is to end up helping the dead directly in some way, not just by helping Cersei. Giving them an army in White Harbor to attack Winterfell from two sides at once would do it.

18 hours ago, Col Cinders said:

I would like to see the Iron Bore returning to their ships after attacking White Harbor only to find the ships hopelessly immobilized in crushing ice.  They turn on Euron for leading them in a venture with no profit and kill him. Now they must choose to fight the undead or Jon/Dany or both.

That one works too. The Ironborn losing by winning, again, seems fitting.

I was just thinking that in-story it might make strategic sense for Cersei and Euron to take White Harbor; I couldn't find a good out-of-story reason for D&D to do it. Either of these ideas could solve that problem.

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On 8/25/2017 at 6:45 PM, Yoren Luck said:

I could have sworn that Jaime said something recently about there being 100,000 'Dothraki screamers' or something along those lines, and was pretty certain that Dany had 100,000 of them in tow when she left Essos.  I could be wrong though, or mixing numbers from the book with numbers from the show.  

Also I thought there were 10,000 Unsullied, not 8,000.  You are probably right that it is 8,000...but doesn't that make it even more unrealistic that Dany would send them to take Casterly Rock, where it is known (by Tyrion) that there was 10,000 Lannister soldiers stationed there.  Even given the fact that there was a secret entrance they could use to get the gates to the castle open without having to storm the walls, that is still a bad ratio of soldiers (less than 1 to 1, with the advantage to the Lannisters).  Obviously it was a moot point since Jaime had most of that army leave Casterly Rock, but Dany and Tyrion did not know this, so in retrospect if the Unsullied were just 8,000 in number, sending them to sack a castle garrisoned by 10,000 seems like suicide.  

Jon and Davos talk about the numbers of how many men they have, and it is stated in the show that is less than 10,000...I am guessing that is wildlings and Northern houses, so your numbers for them may be correct.  

The Knights of the Vale are probably considerably less than 10,000 following the Battle of the Bastards, but who knows at this point.  I had factored their number into my overall estimates for the North when I got 120,000, but maybe their force is more intact than I thought.

So in summary, 100,000 Dothraki plus 10,000 Unsullied plus the 10,000 northmen Jon and Davos mention = 120,000.  That is where I got those numbers.  If the number of Dothraki was only 40,000 from the beginning, but there are still about 10,000 Vale knights, then Dany should have something like 60,000.  Likely more lie 50,000 given casualties in recent battles.

Euron probably has 20,000 to 30,000 reavers based on an estimate that he has 1,000 ships, and each ship is probably manned by 20 to 30.  I have no basis for that number though, it is just a guess considering I can't imagine there being a larger number of men per ship (The Iron Islands are not that big and their total population military force is only listed as 15,000 in the Atlas of Ice and Fire [see link]) 

 https://atlasoficeandfireblog.wordpress.com/2016/03/06/the-population-of-the-seven-kingdoms/

Going by the atlas population numbers, Euron really should only have about 3,000 - 5,000 reavers total, but that would make it a crew of 3 to 5 men per ship which is ridiculous.  (Edit: I am basing this off the fact that Yara had already absconded with their best ships and men after the king's moot, and they had already had casualties in the preceding wars)  Or am I mistaking their number and Euron only has 100 ships?  That would be way more believable in the context of the story, even if you want to give the showrunners some leeway and say the population of the Iron Islands is something like 150,000 instead of 15,000.

Cersei probably only has a few thousand Lannister soldiers left, most of them garrisoned at Kings landing with some of them serving as Gold Cloaks.  A smaller figure is probably holding the major castles in the Riverlands.

I really wish the show had made more of an effort over the past episode or two to provide the viewers with this information, as well as a summary of the statuses of the great houses and what kind of forces are still kicking around in the Riverlands and garrisoned at Kings Landing.  Hopefully we get some of this info in the big council in the season finale.  I feel like the reason they are obscuring this info is because it no longer makes sense in terms of consistency with the story. 

edited to make more sense of Iron Islands statistics

 
I may have underestimated the Dothraki force which would make the arrival of the Golden Company even more irrelevant.  If the Night King wins, everyone dies.  If the North / Daenerys win, I am betting there will be enough forces left over (perhaps a dragon or two) to wipe the Golden Company out.

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It seems to me that if the Iron Bank is all about, numbers and investments, they could not invest in Cersei's side of the war. Personally, I would reject her loan application in an instant as a terrible business venture most likely to result in the loss of enormous funds.

Also what's with Cersei talking about, not fighting alongside foreign scum, then hiring foreign scum to fight alongside her? Girl has lost her mind.

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