Jon Snow is the real Aegon.

[HallowedMarcus]

5 hours ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

I think someone pointed out that Aegon in DwD is probably a Backfyre because he is protected by the Golden Company, which follows Daemon Blackfyre. In World of Ice and Fire GRRM writes that Daemon's legacy lives through the Golden Company. It's probably literal. However, it's important to note that Blackfyres are also Targs, like full blooded ones. Daemon's parents were too Targs, and people even compare his looks to Aegon's. So the very likely fake Aegon could very likely ride dragons.

 Why everyone presumes he is a fake Aegon, that he is a Backfyre. He is Aegon Targaryen. The baby was switch days before the Mountain got there. The Spider had that arranged. We even have Lord Connington own thoughts about Aegon being the real one in "A Dance with Dragons" book. Remember Daenerys when he saw a vision in the about her older Brother Crown Prince Rhaegar saying there needed to be 3. The Dragon has 3 heads. Daenerys, Jon and him.

[Ghost+Nymeria4Eva]

26 minutes ago, cgrav said:

@Ghost+Nymeria4Eva

you're correct that blue roses are not mentioned at Winterfell in the present narrative, but we do have a mention by Mance when he recounts Bael the Bard to Jon:

 

Isn't that a story in a legend? Anyway, I think when blue roses shows up again, it would be quite important. Or it could be a simple connection GRRM made up to hint at the connection between the characters. 

[Ghost+Nymeria4Eva]

5 minutes ago, HallowedMarcus said:

 Why everyone presumes he is a fake Aegon, that he is a Backfyre. He is Aegon Targaryen. The baby was switch days before the Mountain got there. The Spider had that arranged. We even have Lord Connington own thoughts about Aegon being the real one in "A Dance with Dragons" book. Remember Daenerys when he saw a vision in the about her older Brother Crown Prince Rhaegar saying there needed to be 3. The Dragon has 3 heads. Daenerys, Jon and him.

Yes, but a Balckfyre can be a head of the dragon too bc he is technically a Targ with blood of old Valyria. He is "fake Aegon" in the sense that he is not Aegon VI, the baby that dies. Why would the Golden Company protect the Targ heir? I think the same way: these three could be the three heads of the dragon. But there's also that thing about Dany's slayer of lies prophesy. A mummer's dragon is mentioned. The lie here is that a Blackfyre pretending to be a Targ. But I think Dany doesn't care about that conflict and accepts him back to the family as a Targ. 

[kissdbyfire]

Just now, Angel Eyes said:

I guess that you can have siblings that have the same name.

 I guess it depends on how good - or not! - the author is.

And it's Ygritte who tells Jon the story about Bael...

[Wolf of The Wall]

1 hour ago, HallowedMarcus said:

I believe he does has a real concern about them. He stood by the Mad Targaryen King until the end and told him what would happen if he opened the gates of King~s Landing. He wants something that the Noble and people look up to and so avoid chaos, disorder, and anarchy. And he sees the Targaryen as capable of doing so because of the myths that follow this ancient family.

That's show Varys not book Varys. We don't know much about Varys to evaluate his motivations but i am pretty sure that he doesn't do anything out of altruism. If he cares about people why not his own people at Lys. If you say people of Lys was cruel to him then i ask, do you think if Varys had come to Westeros as a poor eunuch people of Westeros would've welcomed him. He came as an experienced spymaster and people still called him names mocked him for being an eunuch. So why would he care.  And way the Jaime told about Varys' actions during the reign of the Mad King i understand he didn't help him but rather fueled his paranoia. If he cares about people so much why didn't do anything about the Mad King that causes all the trouble whom he can easlily manipulate. So no he doesn't care Targaryens at all he is pragmatic end has his own scheme.

[cgrav]

2 hours ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

Isn't that a story in a legend? Anyway, I think when blue roses shows up again, it would be quite important. Or it could be a simple connection GRRM made up to hint at the connection between the characters. 

Who knows if the actual events are real, but the point is that it's apparently unremarkable to find winter roses in Winterfell. It doesn't seem that they are particularly rare, and the events in question took place during winter, so I'd say it's entirely appropriate.

I really don't think the roses themselves are a mystery to solve. The backstory has to have a limit or else we just find longer and longer routes to the same dead ends. The information we get about the Rebellion is there to provide context and help us solve the mysteries in the present narrative. The history has gaps, but I try not to assume that every missing piece of information is an attempt by GRRM to obfuscate the reader. Sometimes the stuff that's left out just isn't important.

[Ygrain]

Ned thinks that Lyanna loved the smell of winter roses, so apparently she had some experience with them.

Bed of blood/bloody bed is a figure of speech, used in the series solely in the meaning of birthing bed. There is no reason to assume that in connection with Lyanna it means something else.

[Hodor the Articulate]

Actually, Jon was being groomed to be Lord Commander, and he got to be leader through Sam's wit and hard work. Though, I suppose the overall argument still works - he is the one who actually lives with the low born. That said, I think Aegon is meant to be a foil for Dany. She is the one who slays that lie, after all.

[IceFire125]

9 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Actually, Jon was being groomed to be Lord Commander, and he got to be leader through Sam's wit and hard work. Though, I suppose the overall argument still works - he is the one who actually lives with the low born. That said, I think Aegon is meant to be a foil for Dany. She is the one who slays that lie, after all.

The election was also influenced by the raven landing next to Jon on the table and then flew to his shoulder.  This is a foreshadowing when Jon will be crowned king by the Great Lords of Westeros in the Great Council.

Drogon, Cannibal, or another dragon that will represent the "black winged" creature that GRRM cleverly attributed in the story (describing ravens with black wings and dragons being horses with wings).  It will be this black winged creature that will land next to Jon, and in that moment, Jon will mount the dragon's shoulders, prompting the lords to elect him to be their king and protector of the realm.

 

[HallowedMarcus]

On 29/08/2017 at 9:10 PM, Wolf of The Wall said:

So no he doesn't care Targaryens at all he is pragmatic end has his own scheme.

    He cares because he wants stability. Book Varys tells Kevan that was undoing a lot of stupid decisions that Cersey did and putting the Faith that almost destroyed the Lannister's reputation to uphold King Tommen and so he wanted him out of the picture; he also tells Kevan that Tommen believes all have to obey him because he is King but Aegon washed his own clothes, walk among commons and low lordlings. Knew the hardship of lives and would try to govern in the best way he could. 

   You see he does care to a certain degree about the common folk and about stability and about the Aegon boy. He had Kevan Lannister as his mercy and the Spider could kill him anytime he wanted, which he did. So Varys told him what he really believes. There was no reason to lie to a person who is going to be killed a few seconds later.

   

[Makk]

On 8/30/2017 at 11:26 AM, HallowedMarcus said:

 Why everyone presumes he is a fake Aegon, that he is a Backfyre. He is Aegon Targaryen. The baby was switch days before the Mountain got there. The Spider had that arranged. We even have Lord Connington own thoughts about Aegon being the real one in "A Dance with Dragons" book. Remember Daenerys when he saw a vision in the about her older Brother Crown Prince Rhaegar saying there needed to be 3. The Dragon has 3 heads. Daenerys, Jon and him.

IMO there are A LOT of clues that he is a fake. There are multiple theories out there so I won't waste time going into that.

However to answer your post, Rhaegar was simply mistaken, and I believe it is pretty clear.

This is what is said...

Quote

"He has a song," the man replied. "He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire." He looked up when he said it and his eyes met Dany's, and it seemed as if he saw her standing there beyond the door. "There must be one more," he said, though whether he was speaking to her or the woman in the bed she could not say. "The dragon has three heads." He went to the window seat, picked up a harp, and ran his fingers lightly over its silvery strings. Sweet sadness filled the room as man and wife and babe faded like the morning mist, only the music lingering behind to speed her on her way.

If you believe the three heads are Aegon (who I think is fake), Daenerys, and Jon, you need to answer why Rhaegar believes only one more is needed. Neither Daenerys or Jon are born at that stage, so that would be two more. He is much more likely thinking the three heads are his three children. Rhaenys, Aegon, and one more (which is possibly why he decided on polygamy or annulment when Elia couldn't have another child). If he has made a mistake about Rhaenys, why not Aegon as well?

Edit : Also would just point out that we know Rhaeger had already made a mistake, he originally thought he was the prince that was promised. It is showing how treacherous prophecy can be 

Quote

 "No one ever looked for a girl," he said. "It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought . . . the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet. 

 

[HallowedMarcus]

On 29/08/2017 at 8:35 PM, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

Why would the Golden Company protect the Targ heir?

   Is that a joke? Many Lords and Knights lost castles and lands because they supported the BackFyre's claim. They went east and formed the Golden Company. They defended the BackFyre's rebellion many times and many Lords in Westeros supported them and had their land seized too. Many of them now are descendants from that lot. They want to get their family's land and titles back and also new ones from the ones who fight against them and lose. Considering they always lost supporting a "fake" Targaryen (BlackFyre), now they support a real one with a Lord who was a Hand to the real late King, to wit, Lord Jon Connington and expecting that another real Targaryen (Daenerys) with Dragons comes to their aid and even marries Aegon. The Golden Company knows they never, ever had such a chance to finally win.

[HallowedMarcus]

10 minutes ago, Makk said:

MO there are A LOT of clues that he is a fake. There are multiple theories out there so I won't waste time going into that

 

10 minutes ago, Makk said:

Also would just point out that we know Rhaeger had already made a mistake, he originally thought he was the prince that was promised. It is showing how treacherous prophecy can b

   Your point of view is based on facts and are very logical. I congratulate you. And you might be right and Aegon be indeed a Fake. I however disagree and still believe he is a true Targaryen for two strong and simple reasons. 1) Why would Varys lie to a person (Kevan Lannister) at his mercy that he could/would and did kill in a few seconds later? Varys knew Kevan would die. Lie? What is the reason for that? What is the advantage he receives with that? None. Kevan was now bantha fodder. 2) In the book A Dance with Dragons we can read Lord Jon Connington own thoughts about Aegon being the real son of Prince Rhaegar. 

   As you see even if the Spider is lying to both Aegon and Jon Connington to use them to do his bidding what is the logical reason to lie to Kevan Lannister? Tell him the truth and then kill him and I believe Varys just did that.

[Makk]

18 minutes ago, HallowedMarcus said:

 

   Your point of view is based on facts and are very logical. I congratulate you. And you might be right and Aegon be indeed a Fake. I however disagree and still believe he is a true Targaryen for two strong and simple reasons. 1) Why would Varys lie to a person (Kevan Lannister) at his mercy that he could/would and did kill in a few seconds later? Varys knew Kevan would die. Lie? What is the reason for that? What is the advantage he receives with that? None. Kevan was now bantha fodder. 2) In the book A Dance with Dragons we can read Lord Jon Connington own thoughts about Aegon being the real son of Prince Rhaegar. 

   As you see even if the Spider is lying to both Aegon and Jon Connington to use them to do his bidding what is the logical reason to lie to Kevan Lannister? Tell him the truth and then kill him and I believe Varys just did that.

I think on point 1, Varys lying to Kevan was somewhat of a contrivance to not make it too easy for the reader. The contrivance isn't the lie itself, but the fact that all Varys' little birds were present. They hear the lie and they spread the rumours.  You could even argue it isn't technically a lie as his name is Aegon and Varys never said Aegon the son of Rhaegar.

Quote

 

“Aegon?” For a moment he did not understand. Then he remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains. “Dead. He’s dead.”

“No.” The eunuch’s voice seemed deeper. “He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them.”

 

On point 2, Connington did only find out that Aegon was supposedly alive years after the event. Somehow, whether true or false, Varys has to convince him (unless there was some birthmark etc that connington was aware of). We don't (as far as I am aware) know how Varys was able to do that.

[IceFire125]

5 minutes ago, HallowedMarcus said:

 

   Your point of view is based on facts and are very logical. I congratulate you. And you might be right and Aegon be indeed a Fake. I however disagree and still believe he is a true Targaryen for two strong and simple reasons. 1) Why would Varys lie to a person (Kevan Lannister) at his mercy that he could/would and did kill in a few seconds later? Varys knew Kevan would die. Lie? What is the reason for that? What is the advantage he receives with that? None. Kevan was now bantha fodder. 2) In the book A Dance with Dragons we can read Lord Jon Connington own thoughts about Aegon being the real son of Prince Rhaegar. 

   As you see even if the Spider is lying to both Aegon and Jon Connington to use them to do his bidding what is the logical reason to lie to Kevan Lannister? Tell him the truth and then kill him and I believe Varys just did that.

“I am pleased to hear it, my lord. Some of your sister’s hirelings are mine as well, unbeknownst to her. I should hate to think they had grown so sloppy as to be seen.”

...

...but I find it best to err on the side of caution.”
“How is it a brothel happens to have a secret entrance?”
“The tunnel was dug for another King’s Hand, whose honor would not allow him to enter such a house openly. Chataya has closely guarded the knowledge of its existence.”
“And yet you knew of it.”
“Little birds fly through many a dark tunnel. Careful, the steps are steep.”

...

Tyrion adjusted the heavy cloak and paced restlessly. “You missed a lively council. Stannis has crowned himself, it seems.”
“I know.”
“He accuses my brother and sister of incest. I wonder how he came by that suspicion.”
“Perhaps he read a book and looked at the color of a bastard’s hair, as Ned Stark did, and Jon Arryn before him. Or perhaps someone whispered it in his ear.” The eunuch’s laugh was not his usual giggle, but deeper and more throaty.
“Someone like you, perchance?”
“Am I suspected? It was not me.”
“If it had been, would you admit it?”
“No. But why should I betray a secret I have kept so long? It is one thing to deceive a king, and quite another to hide from the cricket in the rushes and the little bird in the chimney. Besides, the bastards were there for all to see.”
“Robert’s bastards? What of them?”
“He fathered eight, to the best of my knowing,” Varys said as he wrestled with the saddle. “Their mothers were copper and honey, chestnut and butter, yet the babes were all black as ravens … and as ill-omened, it would seem. So when Joffrey, Myrcella, and Tommen slid out between your sister’s thighs, each as golden as the sun, the truth was not hard to glimpse.”

Tyrion shook his head. If she had borne only one child for her husband, it would have been enough to disarm suspicion … but then she would not have been Cersei. “If you were not this whisperer, who was?”
“Some traitor, doubtless.” Varys tightened the cinch.
“Littlefinger?”
“I named no name.”

[the trees have eyes]

On 30/08/2017 at 0:26 AM, HallowedMarcus said:

 Why everyone presumes he is a fake Aegon, that he is a Backfyre. He is Aegon Targaryen. The baby was switch days before the Mountain got there. The Spider had that arranged. We even have Lord Connington own thoughts about Aegon being the real one in "A Dance with Dragons" book. Remember Daenerys when he saw a vision in the about her older Brother Crown Prince Rhaegar saying there needed to be 3. The Dragon has 3 heads. Daenerys, Jon and him.

This always bothers me.  Either Varys had the audacity to steal away the Crown Prince, an incredibly risky move and one that invites certain death if he were caught, or it was done with the connivance of Aerys and the KG (Jaime only at this point), for which there is no evidence and which is totally out of keeping with Aerys's character in any case.

Putting about a story later that he had done this in order to launch a pretender to the throne is more likely.  GRRM was influenced strongly by The Wars of the Roses and Henry Tudor had to face two pretenders - Lambert Simnel and Perkin Warbeck - who claimed to be the dead children of Edward IV. 

Varys's motivations remain a mystery to me.

[Ygrain]

2 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

This always bothers me.  Either Varys had the audacity to steal away the Crown Prince, an incredibly risky move and one that invites certain death if he were caught, or it was done with the connivance of Aerys and the KG (Jaime only at this point), for which there is no evidence and which is totally out of keeping with Aerys's character in any case.

Besides, there is no evidence, no corroboration of the Pisswater Prince story, it all relies only and solely on the word of Varys... who absolutely needn't have bothered with a swap but merely got Elia with both children out through the tunnels, if he was indeed so bothered with the fate of the Targaryen dynasty. KL was to go in wildfire, are we supposed to believe that he didn't know?

2 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Putting about a story later that he had done this in order to launch a pretender to the throne is more likely.  GRRM was influenced strongly by The Wars of the Roses and Henry Tudor had to face two pretenders - Lambert Simnel and Perkin Warbeck - who claimed to be the dead children of Edward IV. 

Indeed. Our story already has a prince in hiding, no need for a second one, but plenty of space for a pretender.

2 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Varys's motivations remain a mystery to me.

If he has some Blackfyre or Birghtflame connections, then he might want to get his lineage back on the throne. If he is not, then he wants a puppet king, plus perhaps some social engineering.

[Wolf of The Wall]

5 hours ago, HallowedMarcus said:

    He cares because he wants stability. Book Varys tells Kevan that was undoing a lot of stupid decisions that Cersey did and putting the Faith that almost destroyed the Lannister's reputation to uphold King Tommen and so he wanted him out of the picture; he also tells Kevan that Tommen believes all have to obey him because he is King but Aegon washed his own clothes, walk among commons and low lordlings. Knew the hardship of lives and would try to govern in the best way he could. 

   You see he does care to a certain degree about the common folk and about stability and about the Aegon boy. He had Kevan Lannister as his mercy and the Spider could kill him anytime he wanted, which he did. So Varys told him what he really believes. There was no reason to lie to a person who is going to be killed a few seconds later.

   

He says he cares he doesn't actually care. If you can't tell the difference than i don't know what to say. Even his killing of Kevan is a subtefuge to further destabilize the realm.

[Wolf of The Wall]

5 hours ago, HallowedMarcus said:

1) Why would Varys lie to a person (Kevan Lannister) at his mercy that he could/would and did kill in a few seconds later? Varys knew Kevan would die. Lie? What is the reason for that? What is the advantage he receives with that? None. Kevan was now bantha fodder.

I don't know what's the reasoning behind this. This why would Varys lie to an already dead man thing. It's self explanatory isn't it. Varys is an expert spymaster and he knows better than anyone is to tell a perfect lie one has to believe himself first.

[Romaine3]

If R + L = J, and the great houses of fire and ice are combined within Jon, why didn't Lyanna give him a Stark first name? When & if his identity is revealed, wouldn't it be pretty rad if he got to be King (insert historical Stark name) Targaryen the first of his name?

This way, the combination of his bloodlines are clearly illustrated. Ice and Fire. He won't be confused with the Aegon's, Aemon's, and what have you. He will be the first of his name re-establishing the Targaryen dynasty.