The North's Fate

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 minute ago, 3sm1r said:

I'm pretty sure there is a large time interval between the meeting with Cersei and the destruction of the Wall. So, people coming from the south should already be close to Winterfell when the wights start their march. If this is not the case, we will have a new confirmation of the fact that the capture of the wight was useless, since obviously now nobody needs any proof of their existence anymore.

Of course the true wights in the books are not fast zombies, but Walking Dead type slow, shuffling zombies. And what's more, they can only animate at night. Meaning they cannot march during daylight hours.

The Others, however, can probably cross vast distances fairly quickly, riding on their cold mists.

[Ser Gareth]

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Haven't you followed the story? Every army available to humanity is heading to Winterfell. Except Cersei's. The big battle is going to be at Winterfell.

So you think they are going to have four or five episodes of the final season at Winterfell?  Then what happens to Cersei?

A big battle will occur at Winterfell.  But I don't believe that is where the Others will be stopped.  Another reason for my opinion is based on Dany's vision of the Iron Throne in a damaged Red Keep with snow falling through.

[3sm1r]

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

Of course the true wights in the books are not fast zombies, but Walking Dead type slow, shuffling zombies. And what's more, they can only animate at night. Meaning they cannot march during daylight hours.

That's true, but I'm saying something different. I'm saying that the destruction of the Wall happened at least two months later than the meeting.

[Ser Gareth]

1 minute ago, 3sm1r said:

That's true, but I'm saying something different. I'm saying that the destruction of the Wall happened at least two months later than the meeting.

I am not so sure about that.  Jon Snow stated in the show it would take two weeks for the Dothraki to reach Winterfell from King's Landing and that the Unsullied would travel by ship and meet them on the King's Road before they got to Winterfell.  I think they may well get to Winterfell too late.  If they get there at all.

[3sm1r]

1 minute ago, Ser Gareth said:

I am not so sure about that.  Jon Snow stated in the show it would take two weeks for the Dothraki to reach Winterfell from King's Landing and that the Unsullied would travel by ship and meet them on the King's Road before they got to Winterfell.  I think they may well get to Winterfell too late.  If they get there at all.

Ok. But if you are right the idea of using the time they had at their disposal to capture and show the wight has been the biggest blunder in the history of Westeros.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Why does everyone think the wight army is racing to Winterfell? Winterfell is 600 miles from the Wall. Besides, the Others don't need their slow moving army. They can race ahead into the South, and raise corpses from graveyards, from battlefields, catacombs and pretty much anywhere someone has recently died in Westeros. Only the magic in the Wall held them back from doing that.

Now all of Westeros is their oyster. Other than places protected by magic. Like Winterfell, Storm's End etc.

[Ser Gareth]

Just now, 3sm1r said:

Ok. But if you are right the idea of using the time they had at their disposal to capture and show the wight has been the biggest blunder in the history of Westeros.

The undead Dragon is the game changer that they didn't foresee (and probably still don't see coming).  Considering the Others had already taken years after the Fist of the First Men to not attacking the Wall (a massive flaw IMO in both books and show) there was no reason to expect an attack on the Wall was imminent or that the Wall would fall so easily.

[3sm1r]

3 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

 there was no reason to expect an attack on the Wall was imminent

There was a pretty good reason: they knew they had become super close. They could have estimated the time to reach the Wall from Hardhome. But even without that, Bran literally saw them at a very small distance from the Wall.

[pinoyathletics]

My prediction is the Undead army will destroy Last Hearth and Castle Black on its way to Winterfell. Once after loses at Winterfell the North will retreat to the Eerie for its final defense along with the Nights of the Vale.

[Ser Gareth]

2 hours ago, 3sm1r said:

There was a pretty good reason: they knew they had become super close. They could have estimated the time to reach the Wall from Hardhome. But even without that, Bran literally saw them at a very small distance from the Wall.

They've been super close since the prologue in AGOT.  What was it?  A few days ride?  I do agree the pacing of the Others attack on the Wall has been horrific in both the books and the TV but if the assumption is that the Wall is what is stopping them then there was no immediate reason that I can see to believe that they could bring the Wall down in the immediate short term comparative to why they couldn't have done it a few years earlier (their strength was quite similar in terms of numbers of wights).

[3sm1r]

4 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

if the assumption is that the Wall is what is stopping them then there was no immediate reason that I can see to believe that they could bring the Wall down in the immediate short term comparative to why they couldn't have done it a few years earlier (their strength was quite similar in terms of numbers of wights).

This explanation is something that I can accept. But in this case it was pointless to go capture a wight. This is my problem with how the events went on. Let me summarize:

1) if the menace of wights was remote, then they should have started with the siege of KL, and then deal with the wights.

2) if the wights were about to attack, then it was useless to capture one of them, because the wights would have simply shown off by themselves.

So, in both cases the plan Daenerys & Co followed does not make sense. Do you agree?

[Ser Gareth]

1 hour ago, 3sm1r said:

This explanation is something that I can accept. But in this case it was pointless to go capture a wight. This is my problem with how the events went on. Let me summarize:

1) if the menace of wights was remote, then they should have started with the siege of KL, and then deal with the wights.

2) if the wights were about to attack, then it was useless to capture one of them, because the wights would have simply shown off by themselves.

So, in both cases the plan Daenerys & Co followed does not make sense. Do you agree?

1) I think the point is that Jon doesn't want to weaken the realm of men any further.  He believes that all human resources needs to be concentrated on the threat North of the Wall ASAP, i.e. right now.

2) They didn't know the Wights were about to attack but something had to be done to stop more people dying in a human war when those people are needed to help stop the advancement of the Others.

[3sm1r]

49 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

1) I think the point is that Jon doesn't want to weaken the realm of men any further.  He believes that all human resources needs to be concentrated on the threat North of the Wall ASAP, i.e. right now.

2) They didn't know the Wights were about to attack but something had to be done to stop more people dying in a human war when those people are needed to help stop the advancement of the Others.

OK, I understand.
Well, I mean, I still think it's the wrong strategy, but at least it follows a logical pattern.

[Ser Gareth]

1 minute ago, 3sm1r said:

OK, I understand.
Well, I mean, I still think it's the wrong strategy, but at least it follows a logical pattern.

It would have been interesting to see how similar events in the books would have played out.  I don't think Tyrion would have been so pacifist and if anything would have encouraged Dany to unleash the Dragons.

I even thought during the episode that the moment Cersei rejected the terms the correct course of action would have been to unleash the Dragons on the Red Keep (and only the Red Keep).

[Camara]

The walkers won't teleport to Winterfell this quickly, they will first conquer the castles up north one by one, giving time for Jon and Danny to prepare Winterfell.

I don't know what they are thinking in the protection of Winterfell. They will know now that the NK has a dragon and the undead are like so many, if the Wall wasn't good enough to stop them then the 10 m high or so walls of winterfell will just be a hump for the Army of the Dead.

The only reasonable solution would be the magical properties of Winterfell but I don't think the show will go that way. In any case what does it have, more spells?

I think in the show they will eventually have to escape, but I don't know how realistically that can be done surrounded by thousands of dead and an undragon, maybe Drogon picks up all important people while Rhaegal baits unViserion?

[3sm1r]

3 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

It would have been interesting to see how similar events in the books would have played out.  I don't think Tyrion would have been so pacifist and if anything would have encouraged Dany to unleash the Dragons.

I even thought during the episode that the moment Cersei rejected the terms the correct course of action would have been to unleash the Dragons on the Red Keep (and only the Red Keep).

It would have been the right call. What they did still does not make much sense to me.

Anyway, I have found an article that can be interesting for you. The title is the following: "Game of Thrones season 7: each character's strategy, ranked by political science".

They analyse the behaviour of the main characters on the basis of their political strategy in season 7. Dany is considered the worst on that point of view.

Here's the link  
https://www.vox.com/culture/2017/8/28/16205048/game-of-thrones-season-7-cersei-daenerys-jon-snow

[Corvinus85]

I think is funny that Jon expects to have all these armies marching north, in winter, to confront the dead. Yet a number of Sansa's scenes in WF show how difficult it will be to feed just the people of the North. But now we got 30-40k mounted Dothraki and somewhat less than 8k Unsullied coming to fight. Has there been any communication between them on this plan? Does Jon even realize the logistical nightmare that his plan entails? Sansa was pissed enough that Jon blindsided her about bending the knee. I'm sure this extra news will go over well.

Considering the patience the NK showed when he prepared his trap for the dragons, he should have his army shuffle around some more, capture easy targets, bolster his numbers, and wait for winter to take its toll.

[Cas Stark]

1 minute ago, Corvinus said:

I think is funny that Jon expects to have all these armies marching north, in winter, to confront the dead. Yet a number of Sansa's scenes in WF show how difficult it will be to feed just the people of the North. But now we got 30-40k mounted Dothraki and somewhat less than 8k Unsullied coming to fight. Has there been any communication between them on this plan? Does Jon even realize the logistical nightmare that his plan entails? Sansa was pissed enough that Jon blindsided her about bending the knee. I'm sure this extra news will go over well.

Considering the patience the NK showed when he prepared his trap for the dragons, he should have his army shuffle around some more, capture easy targets, bolster his numbers, and wait for winter to take its toll.

LOL, someone needs to start knitting some clothing for the Dothraki.  Or maybe she will garison them at RR, and next season the missing Edmure Tully will appear....

[Dragonslack]

The name says it all, winter fell! Travel times and food or clothing don't matter in this tv show.

Besides it would be 100 000 dothrakhi undead with undead horses since they don't have proper weapons, clothing, food, etc.

Consider this: strong army concentrates on magical winterfell, while the main undead force goes in the direction of king's landing, full of easy undead reinforcements.

The heroes are going north and they have to win so...

[Dragonslack]

1 hour ago, 3sm1r said:

Here's the link  
https://www.vox.com/culture/2017/8/28/16205048/game-of-thrones-season-7-cersei-daenerys-jon-snow

Problem is they are not playing the game of thrones.

Jon has no interest in any of it and is simply dumb. he just bent the knee without suggesting marriage.

Tyrion is not really a player and this season he is, out of character, a complete idiot. Realistically Danny would have conquered KL in a week and then unite the 7 kingdoms against the WW threat, weak plot. If he is a player then the best is the non maester creator of undead Clygane and hand to the queen.

Euron: building that fleet was impossible and off screen just like his accomplishments.

The allies: isn't the dorne army intact? high garden had danny on it's back! They had enough money to pay off that tremendous debt?! She could have taken revenge and conquered the world all by herself.

Cersei: the same customs they talk about in LF's part would have killed her by now! Realistically she has no real support whatsoever, no magical troops, no loyalty from anybody, a woman with no claim. Simply being mean and evil and betrayer does not make you a good player or concealer of plotter, by the contrary. Even having an undead bodyguard or qyborn being hand would have a tremendous negative impact. No small or grand council or even trusty generals or family members. It's ridiculous.