Counterfactual W5K: If Edmure didn't stall Tywin

[DominusNovus]

Suppose this scenario: Robb tells Edmure about his plan fo lure Tywin into the west, so Edmure is able to execute his plan properly, rather than pinning down the Lannisters long enough for them to pivot to the south. Stannis takes KL after winning blackwater, and frees Sansa/takes her as his own hostage. Cersei manages to flee the city with Joffrey and/or Tommen. Tyrion is also captured. The Tyrell-Lannister alliance still happens, with Margaery betrothed to Joffrey.

Now, we have Robb in the Westerlands, with the threat of a combined Tyrell-Lannister army bearing down on him, unless they try to immediately take back KL. He may or may not have already betrayed his betrothal to the Freys ( though, at this point, he's now screwed enough by his plan actually working that that might be overkill, even for ASOIAF). He does currently hold Jaime as captive, and Cat will no longer have reason to free him (maybe she would trade him to Stannis, but that is hardly 'freeing' him), so thats a plus.

Stannis is likely in a position to be able to assist Robb if he so chooses, which, combined with rescuing Sansa, would put the Stark-Tullys in his debt and could convince Robb to bend the knee.

House Martell is still a wildcard, but likely favorably disposed to Stannis, though the fact that they have Myrcella complicates that; do they honor the Lannister trust, or use Myrcella as bargaining with Stannis (we'll give you Myrcella if you promise not to hurt hurt and give us Tywin to punish). House Greyjoy is in the process of raiding the North and taking key castles, so Bran and Rickon are likely off on their journey. The Greyjoys may ally with the Lannisters in this scenario, but if Euron still kills Balon, that might collapse as the rival Greyjoys duke it out for the iron islands. House Arryn is still neutral, though Littlefinger is likely going to ingratiate himself further with the Lannisters or try to disrupt any possible Baratheon-Stark alliance, due to Stannis' utter contempt for him (at least Tywin finds him useful).

Varys and Illyrio will likely now succeed in getting Dany and fAegon to meet up and ally, without Tyrion to mess that plan up.

So, in terms of fortunes, the Starks are about even or better (depending on Lannister priorities) with the books, the Lannister Tyrells are worse off, Baratheons better off, Targaryens/"Targaryens" are better off, and everyone else is about par.

How does this assessment of the immediate consequences sound in terms of likelyhood, and what might happen next?

[Whitering]

If Stannis takes KL it is highly, highly likely that Joff and Cersei are dead, Tommen is out there somewhere still. I don't know that the Tyrells would be willing to step quite that far out, as in, having to recapture KL, in order to make Marge queen. So, I am not as confident in that alliance as you may be, being maintained.

Now, Doran still has his stupid plan, but would he return Myrcella to Stannis (who would no doubt kill her), in return for Gregor and Twyin?

[elder brother jonothor dar]

The real question is why Tywin was marching west in the first place?

He based himself in Harrenhall to guard KL and maintain the war in the riverlands, Stannis was the biggest threat (wont get into that bs) apparently but he moves against Robb at a crucial time.

[DominusNovus]

1 hour ago, Whitering said:

If Stannis takes KL it is highly, highly likely that Joff and Cersei are dead, Tommen is out there somewhere still. I don't know that the Tyrells would be willing to step quite that far out, as in, having to recapture KL, in order to make Marge queen. So, I am not as confident in that alliance as you may be, being maintained.

Now, Doran still has his stupid plan, but would he return Myrcella to Stannis (who would no doubt kill her), in return for Gregor and Twyin?

Cersei and Joffrey captured is a likely scenario (I think Stannis would keep them prisoner by preference, and hold a trial later on), but Cersei was trying to keep Joff out of danger.  I suggest that they escape mainly from a narrative standpoint (it puts pretty much all the cards in Stannis' hands (forgot that Tommen was outside KL at the time of the battle).  From an in-universe perspective, I think it would make sense for Varys to spirit them away, to keep Stannis from securing his hold on the throne too much, or else fAegon and Dany will have more work ahead of them.

25 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

The real question is why Tywin was marching west in the first place?

He based himself in Harrenhall to guard KL and maintain the war in the riverlands, Stannis was the biggest threat (wont get into that bs) apparently but he moves against Robb at a crucial time.

I'm not 100%, but I think his calculus was based on the fact that Renly and Stannis were fighting each other as far as he knew.  What caused him to turn around to KL was the information that Renly was dead and Stannis had much of his forces now, and was moving on KL himself.  From an overall perspective, before Tywin found that out, Renly clearly was the bigger threat in terms of pure manpower, but Stannis was clearly the bigger threat in terms of what he could do with comparable resources.  So, better to let Renly and Stannis duke it out and take on Robb while they wore each other down.  Even in this worst-case scenario, Tywin still was able to profit from it.

The more I think about it, the more I think that the Tyrells might shop around a bit.  Loras would be adamantly against an alliance with Stannis, but how much weight did his opinion hold?  Olenna and Mace would be happy to try to convince Stannis to set aside Selyse and marry Margaery, instead.  Heck, they might even try to send feelers out to Robb, and see if he could be persuaded to marry Margaery and set aside his Frey betrothal (depending on the Westerling matter).  From there, they could gradually try to sway him to take the Iron Throne for himself (he's already king of 7 out of 8 realms).

I still think that the Lannisters are the best fit for the Tyrells, though.  An eligible young claimant to the throne, good resources, and a peerless leader in Tywin.

[Trigger Warning]

Honestly I don't see why the Tyrells wouldn't just lift the siege themselves, they've pledged themselves to Joffrey's cause through Littlefinger and they still massively outnumber Stannis without Tywin, he's incredibly vulnerable whilst storming a city. If anything such a victory would benefit the Tyrells even more, they'd be seen as the sole saviours of the city. Tywin's presence isn't needed on the Blackwater to defeat Stannis. 

[DominusNovus]

21 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

Honestly I don't see why the Tyrells wouldn't just lift the siege themselves, they've pledged themselves to Joffrey's cause through Littlefinger and they still massively outnumber Stannis without Tywin, he's incredibly vulnerable whilst storming a city. If anything such a victory would benefit the Tyrells even more, they'd be seen as the sole saviours of the city. Tywin's presence isn't needed on the Blackwater to defeat Stannis. 

I'm not certain they would make it in time w/o Tywin.  Its my understanding that the Tyrells were waiting for Tywin at Tumbler's Falls, so how long would they wait?  A delay of mere hours puts Stannis inside the walls instead of outside.  They very well could lay siege to the city themselves, of course.  But here's the biggest problem: The Tyrells don't have their best commander.  Tarly has been sent to find Tywin, leaving the main force under Mace Tyrell.  Its ready to sail down the Blackwater and engage Stannis, sure.  But under Mace Tyrell, who is 0-1 in battles against fortified positions, Stannis, or Stannis in a fortified position.

So, the Tyrells need Randyll Tarly to realize he's not going to find Tywin in time, return to their army, and convince Mace to let him take that army to the capital, minus Tywin and his 20k men, all without losing any time.

[Trigger Warning]

They don't even need a good commander, Stannis is mid way through assaulting a city across a river and all his scouts and outriders are dead. It's basically the worst position he could be in militarily, most of his men would break and run just from the knowledge that they're being hit in the rear by a relief army as they did in the actual Battle of the Blackwater, generally when a relief army is about to trap a besieging force between a rock and a hard place they just leave because they know it's not a good position to be in, unless you're Caesar. The time constraint is even less of an issue, Stannis still has to ferry most of his army across and crack the citadel, the Red Keep is a castle within a castle and by all accounts a fearsome fortification and most of his army will be distracted pillaging the city, getting his army across, establishing order in the city and then besieging the Red Keep could take days if not more. Furthermore I doubt it would take less time for riders to establish that Tywin has already gone West than it would for the Tyrells to actually wait for 20,000 men to march down from the Riverlands as they had to in the actual battle. 

And if it does come to a siege Stannis is stuck in a city that's just been stormed with no food and a brutalised populace on the verge of revolt, his only real option would be to leave by sea. I always took Robb's criticism of Edmure as quite obviously Robb guilting Edmure into marrying a Frey to reestablish his alliance, the Tyrells always seemed more important than Tywin in the Blackwater. 

[DominusNovus]

2 hours ago, Trigger Warning said:

They don't even need a good commander, Stannis is mid way through assaulting a city across a river and all his scouts and outriders are dead. It's basically the worst position he could be in militarily, most of his men would break and run just from the knowledge that they're being hit in the rear by a relief army as they did in the actual Battle of the Blackwater, generally when a relief army is about to trap a besieging force between a rock and a hard place they just leave because they know it's not a good position to be in, unless you're Caesar. The time constraint is even less of an issue, Stannis still has to ferry most of his army across and crack the citadel, the Red Keep is a castle within a castle and by all accounts a fearsome fortification and most of his army will be distracted pillaging the city, getting his army across, establishing order in the city and then besieging the Red Keep could take days if not more. Furthermore I doubt it would take less time for riders to establish that Tywin has already gone West than it would for the Tyrells to actually wait for 20,000 men to march down from the Riverlands as they had to in the actual battle. 

And if it does come to a siege Stannis is stuck in a city that's just been stormed with no food and a brutalised populace on the verge of revolt, his only real option would be to leave by sea. I always took Robb's criticism of Edmure as quite obviously Robb guilting Edmure into marrying a Frey to reestablish his alliance, the Tyrells always seemed more important than Tywin in the Blackwater. 

If anyone is par with Caesar on the battlefield in aSoIaF, its Stannis.  That said, again, without Tywin or Randyll, its an army led by Mace Tyrell.  Whats the saying?  An army of sheep led by a lion is more dangerous than an of lions led by a sheep.  And, thanks to Westerosi heraldy, we actually have lions for commanders.

Reading the battle, I get the impression that Stannis was within hours of taking the city, even if not the keep.  If the crown abandons the Red Keep, as they're likely to do (Cersei clearly does not want to be a hostage, nor does she want Joffrey to be one, either), it might be difficult for the Lannisters to hold the Keep.  Even after the wildfire, he still has naval superiority until the Redwyne fleet gets there (which will take quite awhile), so he could ship in supplies to the city and alleviate the food shortages.  Look at how well he was able to keep Storm's End (yes, a much better fortification) defiant against Mace (again, the same guy that would be coming after him, if the Tyrells try to maintain the book's time table) without naval superiority.  Plus, while Mace outnumbers Stannis by a factor of 2 to 3, Stannis will still have most of his 20k troops, so he'll be able to do something with them, even if it is just to eat the 15k horses and just continually sally against whatever weak points are in the Tyrell lines.

[Trigger Warning]

Stannis could only be on par with Caesar because no one in ASOIAF has a particularly long battle resume. Stannis has one land battle under his belt, a siege in one of the strongest fortresses in Westeros, the capture of a basically abandoned castle, a naval victory and a catastrophic defeat on the Blackwater, now don't get me wrong it's impressive that he lured the Iron Fleet intro a trap but beyond that at that technological level level it's basically just numbers at sea so it doesn't really say much for a man's ability to direct a pitched battle or strategise beyond their ability to set traps, despite being one of the best commanders we're shown he still simply doesn't have enough of a record to even lick Caesar's boots so lets not be calling him a Caesar.

Mace simply besieged Storm's End and Stannis was stubborn enough to not surrender so I don't really see where the fact that Mace is the opposing commander is coming in if Stannis is still crossing the river or still actively assaulting the city then it's simply a matter of smashing into his rear where the job's mostly going to be up to various sub commanders as it was in the actual Battle of the Blackwater and if Stannis is miraculously in the city with all his strength it's just a matter of besieging him. Where's he going to get supplies from? His fleet can't do anything, he has no ready wealth besides what he may get from looting the city (that'll get him lots of support inside) and no credibility because sure he may hold the Iron Throne, but he's under siege by a superior force. Who's going to supply his soldiers and 500,000 citizens? Renly's supply train was left at Bitterbirdge in the hands of the Tyrells. The only smart option is to withdraw to somewhere where you aren't trapped and can actually prosecute a campaign. 

You really think those men that joined Stannis in the chaos of Renly's death and immediately gave up on the Blackwater are going to sit in King's Landing eating horses? They'll probably hand him over. The Battle of the Blackwater is a fun read but it's just dumb really, it's a good spectacle but it makes Stannis look like an idiot with tunnel vision, "if I can grab the chair I win by default", ultimately all that matters is that it's fun to read but to analyse it is pretty pointless because it's not written with the intention of making sense militarily, it's just a big dumb battle. 

Furthermore I really can't see a scenario where it takes the Tyrells so much more time to mobilise that Stannis and his entire army as well as whatever meagre supplies he has have crossed the river and taken the entire city, I mean why would the Tyrells just be waiting around. Even if he did capture the city in a matter of hours his army would still likely be crossing the next day, this stuff takes time and if anything the Tyrells may even arrive earlier if they don't have to wait for Tywin as it'll take scouts less time to report that Tywin has gone West than it would to find Tywin, establish a strategy and then march 20,000 men South to link up. 

It's not like they just marched off looking for him, there must have been significant communication between messengers, Mace Tyrell is waiting North West of King's Landing with barges ready to link up with Tywin and sail down the river, they've literally marched further North than they'd need to go to relieve the city. If their messengers confirm that Tywin's already gone they can just cut that step out and head straight to King's Landing to lift the siege and there must be messengers otherwise they wouldn't be ready with that plan to link up with Tywin. 
 

And honestly they wouldn't even need superior numbers, an army trying to storm a city whilst crossing a river via a bridge of burning ships suddenly being attacked in the rear with absolutely no warning? Right after half their fleet was annihilated in a blazing death inferno. That's game over no matter what, they could be the most loyal men in the world and they'd still break, being attacked in the rear absolutely cripples morale and spreads chaos and confusion even in the best of circumstances. 

Stannis had no chance the second the Tyrells chose sides. Unless he decided to abandon his attack on the city because there's an undeclared army basically just down the road, which would be the smart choice. 

[DominusNovus]

28 minutes ago, Trigger Warning said:

Mace simply besieged Storm's End and Stannis was stubborn enough to not surrender so I don't really see where the fact that Mace is the opposing commander is coming in if Stannis is still crossing the river or still actively assaulting the city then it's simply a matter of smashing into his rear where the job's mostly going to be up to various sub commanders as it was in the actual Battle of the Blackwater and if Stannis is miraculously in the city with all his strength it's just a matter of besieging him.

I'm trimming down my quote to this because I really get the impression that we have two vastly different impressions of the time tables here.

In canon, Tywin learns that Stannis is advancing on the city, and marches 20k Lannister men to the headwaters of the Blackwater, joins up with Randyll Tarly, who was sent looking for him, and they force march down the river a bit, meet up with Mace Tyrell, who was waiting for them, they sail down the river, disembark half a day away from KL, and attack Stannis as his army is assaulting the walls, around the time that the defenders are pretty much totally demoralized and deserting and Tyrion is convinced the battle is lost.  Stannis retreats, and the majority of his losses are defections after the battle.

This is a battle that is won or lost on a time table that comes down to hours, rather than days.  Stannis is attacking through an aggressive assault, not a prolonged siege.  He was either going to take the city that night, or not at all.  Any one thing that delays the Tyrells by more than a few hours puts Stannis inside the walls instead of outside.  Further strengthening Stannis' side of this equation is the fact that the Tyrells don't know this.  They have no way of knowing, until they're there, that if they leave ASAP, they'll hit Stannis when he's attacking the walls.  They know that there's no time to lose, but this is a pre-industrial world where information like this is almost always days old.  Again, absent Tywin and Randyll, Mace Tyrell is in overall command of the Tyrell army, and I see nothing to convince me that he's bold enough to march without either the support of the Lannisters or his top military commander.

So, all your entirely valid points regarding Stannis still being screwed if the Tyrells attack in a timely manner become pretty much irrelevant, as it is unlikely that they will manage to do so.

Now, the circumstances within the city are not ideal, but they're not hopeless, either.  If the Tyrells invest the city, Stannis has to withstand a siege or an assault.  He has the manpower, without doubt, to withstand an assault.  Outnumbering a fortified enemy by such a small ratio (in the ballpark of 3 to 1) is not nearly enough of an advantage for an active assault.  So, for once, Mace's preferred strategy of laying siege and starving out seems the better option.  Except he has no fleet whatsoever to back him up, until the Redwynes can sail the 2-3 thousand miles (really spitballing on that one), which literally takes the better part of a year for a typical sailing ship (assuming average conditions).  Unless Dorne or anyone in Essos decides to be nice to the Tyrells and chip in, Stannis has naval superiority for the foreseeable future (given that our main point of contention hinges on a matter of hours).  Hell, it would likely be quicker for the Lannisters to ally with the Ironborn, and have them portage into the Riverlands and sail down.  This is huge.

It means Stannis can bring in supplies at will, with almost no way for Mace to stop him, short of trying to pit his river barges against Stannis' fleet.  Stannis still has to worry about paying for these supplies in some cases, but thats a problem that is an order of magnitude smaller than having to break a blockade.  Stannis also will have the option of evacuating the city, if things get dicey.  Leave with all his key hostages (maybe he does manage to capture Cersei and Joffrey), take whatever movable wealth he can (or that he hasn't used already to buy supplies) and his army intact and land somewhere where he has a better strategic advantage.

But, lets take one last look at the idea of the Tyrells assaulting the city.  This is a bad idea, as, with Stannis possessing more than double the men Tyrion had to defend the city, and he might even still have the siege engines, depending on how organized the Lannister defense is after Stannis breaks through (and, on top of everything else, there is the non-0 possibility that some of the Gold Cloaks decide to side with Stannis, but lets not even worry about that).  Stannis' plan had been to attack from the river.  Mace may or may not be able to do that, depending on the naval circumstances (largely, where is the debris of the ships burned in the battle, and which fleet does it interfere with more).  If Stannis can project his naval superiority along the river, he can prevent any attacks along the river (hell, he has plenty of galleys that could sail upriver and screw up the Tyrell advance down the Blackwater before they even reach KL), so that is one side he doesn't have to defend as heavily.

[elder brother jonothor dar]

9 hours ago, DominusNovus said:

I'm not 100%, but I think his calculus was based on the fact that Renly and Stannis were fighting each other as far as he knew.  What caused him to turn around to KL was the information that Renly was dead and Stannis had much of his forces now, and was moving on KL himself.

The time line needs looking at but having LF broker a deal inform Tywin of the new alliance and march on KL to save the day in medieval times seems ridiculously fast

8 hours ago, DominusNovus said:

gest problem: The Tyrells don't have their best commander.  

Was it not Garlan that had the Van? Loras would also jump at the command and was to take Renlys Van against Stannis.  Tarly is good and has the experience but the Reach does not lack commanders, it is laughable to think that of the biggest region they can only field 1 capable general.

 

[DominusNovus]

8 hours ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

The time line needs looking at but having LF broker a deal inform Tywin of the new alliance and march on KL to save the day in medieval times seems ridiculously fast

Was it not Garlan that had the Van? Loras would also jump at the command and was to take Renlys Van against Stannis.  Tarly is good and has the experience but the Reach does not lack commanders, it is laughable to think that of the biggest region they can only field 1 capable general.

 

I agree that Garlan and Loras are excellent soldiers and prove themselves to be good tactical commanders in the books, though we've yet to see if they have the strategic expertise that Tarly or Tywin do.  However, they're still marching under their father, who is not of the same caliber.  I come back to the army of lions led by a sheep analogy.  Mace needs only gum up the march by some small degree, and they lose their advantage.  I think Loras might be the sort to try to assault the city (particularly for personal reasons), but, again, Stannis has the numbers to bleed the Tyrells white for their trouble.

[Whitering]

22 hours ago, DominusNovus said:

Cersei and Joffrey captured is a likely scenario (I think Stannis would keep them prisoner by preference, and hold a trial later on), but Cersei was trying to keep Joff out of danger.  I suggest that they escape mainly from a narrative standpoint (it puts pretty much all the cards in Stannis' hands (forgot that Tommen was outside KL at the time of the battle).  From an in-universe perspective, I think it would make sense for Varys to spirit them away, to keep Stannis from securing his hold on the throne too much, or else fAegon and Dany will have more work ahead of them.

I'm not 100%, but I think his calculus was based on the fact that Renly and Stannis were fighting each other as far as he knew.  What caused him to turn around to KL was the information that Renly was dead and Stannis had much of his forces now, and was moving on KL himself.  From an overall perspective, before Tywin found that out, Renly clearly was the bigger threat in terms of pure manpower, but Stannis was clearly the bigger threat in terms of what he could do with comparable resources.  So, better to let Renly and Stannis duke it out and take on Robb while they wore each other down.  Even in this worst-case scenario, Tywin still was able to profit from it.

The more I think about it, the more I think that the Tyrells might shop around a bit.  Loras would be adamantly against an alliance with Stannis, but how much weight did his opinion hold?  Olenna and Mace would be happy to try to convince Stannis to set aside Selyse and marry Margaery, instead.  Heck, they might even try to send feelers out to Robb, and see if he could be persuaded to marry Margaery and set aside his Frey betrothal (depending on the Westerling matter).  From there, they could gradually try to sway him to take the Iron Throne for himself (he's already king of 7 out of 8 realms).

I still think that the Lannisters are the best fit for the Tyrells, though.  An eligible young claimant to the throne, good resources, and a peerless leader in Tywin.

Cersei seemed to have been resolved to spit in Stannis' face, there was absolutely no indication she was thinking of escape. Joff maybe, but I highly doubt any of the Kingsguard even liked the little shit and none of them, besides the Hound were likely capable of the type of heroism of Barristan in terms of carrying Joff out of danger.

It feels like the Red Wedding still happens because Robb had to go home, and by the shortest route. Also, Robb is not the type to set aside a marriage once done anyway. So the Tyrells can't get him. If they are truly desperate to get involved, and I disagree that Olenna wanted any of this, she just started taking over once her idiot son started on the path.

Most likely they sit aside and throw their lot in with Aegon when he shows up. That would be an epic showdown between Marge and Arianne.

[DominusNovus]

2 hours ago, Whitering said:

Cersei seemed to have been resolved to spit in Stannis' face, there was absolutely no indication she was thinking of escape. Joff maybe, but I highly doubt any of the Kingsguard even liked the little shit and none of them, besides the Hound were likely capable of the type of heroism of Barristan in terms of carrying Joff out of danger.

It feels like the Red Wedding still happens because Robb had to go home, and by the shortest route. Also, Robb is not the type to set aside a marriage once done anyway. So the Tyrells can't get him. If they are truly desperate to get involved, and I disagree that Olenna wanted any of this, she just started taking over once her idiot son started on the path.

Most likely they sit aside and throw their lot in with Aegon when he shows up. That would be an epic showdown between Marge and Arianne.

If Robb heads north in this scenario, it might be by sea, with Stannis supporting him with ships and men to take back the North (this presumes they make peace w each other). After all, they have to get around Moat Cailin.

[elder brother jonothor dar]

11 minutes ago, DominusNovus said:

If Robb heads north in this scenario, it might be by sea, with Stannis supporting him with ships and men to take back the North (this presumes they make peace w each other). After all, they have to get around Moat Cailin.

Robb heads north because he had lost, he has enough men to take back Winterfell in the north and then some, he takes his whole army north to deal with a hand full of Ironborn.

Having read some more on Tywin it seems Stannis victory spreads like wild fire and everybody knows it.  Robb raids the west in the hope of drawing out Tywin.  Stannis has been twiddling his thumbs outside Stormsend waiting for the castle to yield.  Tywin assumes that Stannis will not march until he has taken the castle and moves to defend the west, leaving Bolton to take Harrenhall and KL undefended.  (Strange gamble but ok) Tywin learns the castle has yielded and Stannis is on the march, hooks up with the Reach and arrives just in time thanx to some bad weather holding up the enemy fleet.

So should Tywin be delayed he would have found himslef on the wrong side of the river, lost his capitol, enemy raiding his homeland, the riverlands regrouping so it would come down to Tommen and Joff getting to friendly territory.

[DominusNovus]

26 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

So should Tywin be delayed he would have found himslef on the wrong side of the river, lost his capitol, enemy raiding his homeland, the riverlands regrouping so it would come down to Tommen and Joff getting to friendly territory.

This is a good point right here.  If the riverlanders can get re-organized and stay focused, they should be able to greatly increase the numbers of the hypothetical Baratheon-Stark alliance here, particularly if they can stay on the offensive.

Tangental, but I just realized another reason that Stannis would want to keep Joff alive, if he captured the boy: if he's alive, then Stannis has, in his custody, a rival claimant to the throne, while Tywin (assuming Tommen is retrieved by the Lannisters) just has his claimant's younger brother. If Joff is dead, Stannis has nothing (not counting any other hostages) and Tywin has his own claimant in his possession.

[Whitering]

19 hours ago, DominusNovus said:

If Robb heads north in this scenario, it might be by sea, with Stannis supporting him with ships and men to take back the North (this presumes they make peace w each other). After all, they have to get around Moat Cailin.

To get to Stannis' ships he has to cross through Lannister held territory, you know, the same place Glover was heading through and there is no indication that the level of communication you are supposing actually exists in Westeros. The logistics of what you are suggesting seem unlikely, also then Robb would have to take off his crown, he had never indicated he was willing to do that either. Too many variables in this lol, I am out.

[DominusNovus]

2 hours ago, Whitering said:

To get to Stannis' ships he has to cross through Lannister held territory, you know, the same place Glover was heading through and there is no indication that the level of communication you are supposing actually exists in Westeros. The logistics of what you are suggesting seem unlikely, also then Robb would have to take off his crown, he had never indicated he was willing to do that either. Too many variables in this lol, I am out.

I do believe there are source quotes from Robb about allying with Stannis, which, unless Robb is even more naive than we generally think, implies renouncing his crown.

[Whitering]

On 9/1/2017 at 1:41 PM, DominusNovus said:

I do believe there are source quotes from Robb about allying with Stannis, which, unless Robb is even more naive than we generally think, implies renouncing his crown.

Well, we don't know what he thought, if he really wanted to he would have done it before approaching him.

[DominusNovus]

3 hours ago, Whitering said:

Well, we don't know what he thought, if he really wanted to he would have done it before approaching him.

Took me a bit to find the quote I was thinking of, but here it is, when Robb's chewing out Edmure for the Stone Mill:

Quote

“Lord Stannis was about to fall upon King’s Landing,” Robb said. “He might have rid us of Joffrey, the queen, and the Imp in one red stroke. Then we might have been able to make a peace.” 

Now, either Robb thinks Stannis would let him remain King of the North and Trident, or Robb hoped to negotiate some settlement that involved bending the knee.  I don't think Robb is quite dumb enough to think Stannis would let him keep his crown, nor do I think he was attached enough to that crown to refuse Stannis' demand of fealty (it wasn't his idea to crown himself king, after all), particularly if it came with the justice Robb wanted for Ned, and the return of his sister, Sansa (who, though she would be much better treated by Stannis than she was by the Lannisters, would still be a hostage).

 

On a different topic, let us assume that the battle has been won, and Stannis firmly controls the city, and has beaten off the Tyrell attack.  The main body of the Lannister army is pinned down in the Westerlands by Robb's mobile cavalry army, so Stannis is secure in his control of the east for the time being, and has the high value Lannisters captive (Cersei, Joffrey, and Tyrion). Cersei's going to be executed at some point, and Joffrey can hope for a black cloak, at best.  What does Stannis do with Tyrion?  He has committed no crime, has been loyal to his family, and acquitted himself ably in battle.  Even if Stannis believed Tyrion believed that Joffrey was a bastard, Stannis can't hold that against him, as Tyrion was siding with family over the crown, just as Stannis did (and Tyrion has the additional defense that he could reasonably claim that he was serving the crown).  I imagine that Stannis would appreciate Tyrion's penchant for offering hard truths, though he'd certainly prefer Davos' style (blunter and with fewer quips).

Could anyone see Stannis offering Tyrion the Westerlands, when the war is over?  I could see Stannis doing it, but I think it would require him to show more leniency to certain Lannisters (Jaime, certainly, and possibly Tywin) if he wants to have Tyrion on his side.  On the other hand, what else does Stannis, the truly just, do with Tyrion, if not making him Lord Paramount of the Westerlands?  He hasn't done anything warranting exile or being sent to the Wall, but he's the strongest claimant to a key part of the 7K.