Counterfactual W5K: If Edmure didn't stall Tywin

[Kytheros]

2 hours ago, DominusNovus said:

Took me a bit to find the quote I was thinking of, but here it is, when Robb's chewing out Edmure for the Stone Mill:

Now, either Robb thinks Stannis would let him remain King of the North and Trident, or Robb hoped to negotiate some settlement that involved bending the knee.  I don't think Robb is quite dumb enough to think Stannis would let him keep his crown, nor do I think he was attached enough to that crown to refuse Stannis' demand of fealty (it wasn't his idea to crown himself king, after all), particularly if it came with the justice Robb wanted for Ned, and the return of his sister, Sansa (who, though she would be much better treated by Stannis than she was by the Lannisters, would still be a hostage).

 

On a different topic, let us assume that the battle has been won, and Stannis firmly controls the city, and has beaten off the Tyrell attack.  The main body of the Lannister army is pinned down in the Westerlands by Robb's mobile cavalry army, so Stannis is secure in his control of the east for the time being, and has the high value Lannisters captive (Cersei, Joffrey, and Tyrion). Cersei's going to be executed at some point, and Joffrey can hope for a black cloak, at best.  What does Stannis do with Tyrion?  He has committed no crime, has been loyal to his family, and acquitted himself ably in battle.  Even if Stannis believed Tyrion believed that Joffrey was a bastard, Stannis can't hold that against him, as Tyrion was siding with family over the crown, just as Stannis did (and Tyrion has the additional defense that he could reasonably claim that he was serving the crown).  I imagine that Stannis would appreciate Tyrion's penchant for offering hard truths, though he'd certainly prefer Davos' style (blunter and with fewer quips).

Could anyone see Stannis offering Tyrion the Westerlands, when the war is over?  I could see Stannis doing it, but I think it would require him to show more leniency to certain Lannisters (Jaime, certainly, and possibly Tywin) if he wants to have Tyrion on his side.  On the other hand, what else does Stannis, the truly just, do with Tyrion, if not making him Lord Paramount of the Westerlands?  He hasn't done anything warranting exile or being sent to the Wall, but he's the strongest claimant to a key part of the 7K.

Stannis can simply take a page out of the history of Westeros. Loose a war? Get sent to the Wall by the victor.

Tyrion doesn't need to have committed major crimes to be sent to the Wall.

 

If Stannis wins, he's likely to be extremely harsh in punishing the Lannisters. Jaime will either get executed or sent to the Wall. Same goes for Tywin. If Casterly Rock (and the Westerlands) stay in the hands of the Lannisters, it's likely going to Kevan's branch of the family, or an even more distant branch if they kneel to Stannis faster/more convincingly. And that assumes Stannis doesn't give one or both to a different family.

[Whitering]

Well, we haven't seen Stannis stand in Victory other than over the Wildings, and to put it fairly he was magnanimous. Okay, he didn't pump their tires like Robert would have, but only "Mance" was executed, he was the enemy King who led the rebellion, and if burning him proved useful from a power perspective (King's blood), so much the better.

Everyone else even "Rattleshirt" was allowed to cross the Wall with a promise from King Stannis to give them lands at some time in the future.

Would he execute Tyrion? No, would he send him to the Wall? Maybe, but maybe not. Stannis has had the same kind of vicious rumours circulated about him his whole adult life, so I doubt he'd see Tyrion as the Monkey Demon. Now, would the situation shake out that Tyrion talked himself out of Casterly Rock by mocking the shit out of Stannis? Probably.

I find Tyrion funny, but he ain't no diplomat and wouldn't shut up just because Stannis held the sword.

Joff is dead, Cersei because of her crimes, not because she's a Lannister specifically, as far as Stannis knows, Tyrion hasn't done anything wrong.

Bottom line Sannis won't make peace with Robb while Robb wears a crown. If he was sincere in his desire to make Peace with Stannis or ally with him when he sent his Mother, he would have sent her with his crown.

[Corvo the Crow]

At this point in time, LF probably has already arrived and worked out the deal. I think what happens next would depend mostly on whether Stannis captured Joffrey or if he was able to escape to grandpa Tywin ; he'd be closer than Tyrells and it is one thing for a king to be under his grandfather's protection and another to be in the tower of  some low lord or hiding behind your to be father in law. First one is ok he is a blood relative but all other options don't say much good about you.

Grampa Tywin has Joffrey;

Some men under Randyll Tarly besieges Riverrun, Tywin ousts Robb out of Westerlands, possibly without any fight Edmure's army is either dealt with or still around, Robb will not be allowed to join with him if he is. Kevan feasts before the walls of KL with Mace Tyrell and Joffrey-Margaery wedding even takes place there. People need to be reminded that they are still hungry. Stannis can not control hundreds of thousands of hungry people, he can only catapult so many so he has to flee the city with as many loot and prisoners as possible. He now has Redwyne Twins, Sansa and Tyrion if he survived the battle. Robb, with no way of joining his uncle or rescuing her mother possibly now wreaks havoc in Reach, even more fertile ground to do so than Westerlands. Would Stannis accept him to bend the knee if Robb casts aside his Frey betrothal and agrees to marry Shireen? Sansa's marriage wasn't consummated so she can marry a Florent, future Wardens of the South, or maybe Edric Storm, if Stannis finds either of these marriages to his benefit. War can drag on for a very long time. Riverrun can't be taken with Jaime a prisoner inside, Starving it out may also not work. Stannis is still at large possibly holding Tyrion who was the reason fighting started so he still needs to be rescued. Robb still moves around living off Mace's lands. Kings Landing can only be fed for a short time before supplies end, no more can be brought with Robb harassing supply lines. Stannis could also be in the Reach whether allied with bended knee Robb or not, he is also cavalry heavy with his forces and have even more men.

 

Stannis has Jofrrey

Mace: Things are even more complicated for everyone except Stannis now. With Joffrey in Stannis' hands, Margaery's betrothal is no longer good. Mace can't bend the knee to Stannis, he has lost his first and only chance if there ever was one. Margaery still wants to be queen though, would Robb fall in love with Margaery as Catelyn wished?

Tywin: he is stuck in the middle, to his north/east there is Edmure, Roose Bolton to the east would soon join him with the majority of his forces. On the West there's Robb with a host uncatchable, even more so now because he has split it to hold several castles/towns. To the south there's Stannis, he won't move on him but he won't just allow him to move south and hand over King's Landing to Tywin. Tywin has no good alliances, Dorne has Myrcella but they will never fight for him, Tommen is out of Reach (pun intended he he) and even if Tywin could somehow get his hand on him, he's still not the one sitting on the throne, he just can't write Joffrey off and Mace wouldn't go for a marriage with Tommen so young and Joffrey still king. Margaery needs to be a queen. Cersei, Jaime and Tyrion (if he survived the battle) are all hostages. Would Lysa accept a marriage offer from Tywin and a Lannister cousin bride for Sweet Robin?

Robb: Stannis has Sansa, so no Margaery marriage for Robb either. He has to contend himself with riding in the West for now.

Edmure: he would like to engage Tywin but would not have favourable conditions unless Tywin decides to make a move on any location. No fight unless any other party forces Tywin to make a move or he can no longer live off the land.

Stannis: He holds all the cards and preventing everyone from making any moves but he doesn't have many moves he can take solely on his own either. He can't attack Reach now, not unless he wants to draw Mace's forces to himself. He is probably waiting in Dragonstone, or Stormlands, gathering the stormlords that have stayed out of the war for now. He has Sansa, Cersei, Tyrion, Joffrey. Sansa is of no direct use for now, Stannis can't marry her to any Baratheon, marrying her to Florents is of no use unless Robb bends the knee. Joffrey can't die because if he dies Tommen can marry Margaery. Cersei I can see burning for her crimes after a trial. She has kingsblood too, so perhaps Tywin's name could be whispered in to the flames? What is even better is whispering Tommen's name as this would make Joff available to burn. He has the kingsblood too but burning him would leave Myrcella betrothed to Dorne. No need of bringing them into this, Joffrey stays alive. Shireen can be betrothed to Sweet Robin to bring Vale into the fight if Lysa agrees.Robb and Edmure wouldn't fight their close relative so Tywin is a goner for sure, that is if she agrees. Maybe ask Doran to break Myrcella betrothal off in favor of a Shireen betrothal in exchange for getting Myrcella and the promise of Tywin's and any other Westerlanders head he wants. If this happens this frees up Stannis' hand a lot, he is now free to burn Joffrey after Tommen dies.Joffrey can make Tywin die.Tyrion may not die because Stannis is just but he'll need to go to wall to chill out with his pal Jon Snow. there's still the case of Mace and Robb, how would he handle them? Myrcella is married off to some loyal Florent and given Westerlands. This only leaves Robb and Mace. Would Robb bend the knee for Sansa? There are no more Lannisters around after all,, the ones that Robb would want dead at least. Would Mace bend the knee if he's given the option to keep Highgarden? He can't have the Reach. Perhaps his bannermen would be willing to help him see the error of his ways if they could each get a cadet or two in lands that belong to Mace. Reach goes to Florents, Highgarden to some Florent with a proper marriage alliance within Reach, or the prospect of it.