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How could everything have gone perfectly for Robb?


UFT

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how do you think robb could survive, and end up with an independent north/intact army?

 i think the main way everything he did would go well is if the arryns and balon sided completely with him rather than leaving him to rot. that gives him a united north/riverlands/vale/iron island alliance. an additional marriage alliance or political deal would give them a a dornish host (to hell with the freys, robb need not marry them), should they need it. after all doran would see that robb has so much support it would be foolish not to throw in his lot with him for the time being despite his true loyaties being to dany.  karstarks murdering lannisters and rickard's death in this timeline is probably seen as acceptable losses, but robb would be convinced by his many advisors that he needs every man he can get to fight off tywin and stannis. so rickard would stay loyal. and despite the betrayal, walder frey would still bet on what is increasingly the winning team and support robb. 

also we would need stannis to lose since he wanted the north to be kept under his boot. and eddard to be alive. same for renly, who wanted a united westeros too. 

 renly's taken out like in the original timeline. that gets tyrells out of the war.  renly was too powerful to live, even for this alternate robb. in order to prevent the tyrells riding to save joff's throne, robb would have to move fast to marry margaery. he might lose freys but at this point hes so strong he doesnt need them. stannis may take king's landing and put joff's head on a pike but what of it? he'd be trapped there. 

same with tywin who is now essentially surrounded and cut off in the riverlands. robb destroys him and then sends 10 000 men to besiege casterly rock. then tyrells can give robb stannis, whom he would allow to be released and be king in the south. stannis probably refuses (out of stubborness and rage at his entire campaign falling apart). people like to say robb and stannis would be friends but even renly, the far more reasonable of the brothers said robb and edmure would never truly be independent. so why would stannis allow that? he would give sansa back but thatd be the first step to bringing robb to the table.

as for mance, i think robb would spare some of his men to swing around and hit them. he would obviously believe jon if jon begged for reinforcements. 

as for dany and aegon, they would see that stannis is a weakened supportless heathen with a false god and fight him. the war in the south probably goes beneath robbs notice since what does he care? so aegon probably gets the dornish if robb didnt, and with that his sellsword/dorne alliance could take king's landing in a fortnight since crownlands and stormlands took so much losses in the war of four kings (as it would come to be known). 

dany lands after hearing of her nephew's conquest of the iron throne, flies in to help him finish off stannis. she convinces aegon to let robb be independent, and they pledge to form an alliance with robb the conqueror to fight off the others, which they do. 

im not saying this is at all realistic, im just saying its robb's best case scenario.

post below your ideas for how robb could come out on top with everything he wants. 

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1 hour ago, Pikachu101 said:

Key 3 things he shouldn't have done to make everything better on his side:

  1. Don't send Theon back
  2. Don't marry Jeyne 
  3. Don't give Roose control over such a large army

Basically he should have listened to Cat

But even with those missteps, he still had the Jaime card to play before Cat broke him out of his cell. Having Jaime prisoner allowed for some errors on Robb's part because he could have kept Tywin at bay and may not have lost the Boltons. 

 

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1 hour ago, UFT said:

an additional marriage alliance or political deal would give them a a dornish host (to hell with the freys, robb need not marry them)

 

1 hour ago, UFT said:

in order to prevent the tyrells riding to save joff's throne, robb would have to move fast to marry margaery

So are you suggesting that to win, Robb needed to take both a Martell wife and a Tyrrell wife and then convince these two families that hate each other to be OK with it?

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The Arryns descent and take the Ruby ford while Tywin is fighting Roose. Then Tywin is trapped. Robb then can take his own forces with the Riverlords and drive him either towards the Twins or the Neck, until he pins him down and takes him from front and rear.

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I believe that if Robb had made it a requirement that wherever he went, Grey Wind was to be allowed to follow him, the Red Wedding plot would have collapsed. Grey Wind sensed any danger to Robb and would have done so had he not been locked up in a damn cage.

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6 hours ago, Winter Blues said:

But even with those missteps, he still had the Jaime card to play before Cat broke him out of his cell. Having Jaime prisoner allowed for some errors on Robb's part because he could have kept Tywin at bay and may not have lost the Boltons. 

 

They needed Sansa and Arya a lot more than the Lannisters needed Jaime, Cat made the right call 

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8 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

Key 3 things he shouldn't have done to make everything better on his side:

  1. Don't send Theon back
  2. Don't marry Jeyne 
  3. Don't give Roose control over such a large army

Basically he should have listened to Cat

Agree.  And maybe even marrying Jeyne would not have been the end if he had kept Theon close and put Glover or Tallhart in charge of his second army.

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9 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

Key 3 things he shouldn't have done to make everything better on his side:

  1. Don't send Theon back
  2. Don't marry Jeyne 
  3. Don't give Roose control over such a large army

Basically he should have listened to Cat

Roose got control over his foot because of Cat. Robb wanted to put the Greatjon in charge.

Sending Theon back was a bad move in hindsight but I don't think he had a choice at the time. It was a show of faith towards an ally that he desperately needed. He couldn't have known that Balon was going to attack the North anyway and, when he did, Robb would've lost his men either way: If he let Theon live, he'd look weak but if he executed him, he'd appear harsh and cruel, and if he'd sent Cat as an envoy instead then the war would've been over before it even really began. There's no way that Robb is attacking the people who hold his mother but there's also no way that the Northmen would continue to support him if he didn't.

All in all, I don't think there was anyway for Robb to actually win the war.

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If he got Balon and Lysa on board, the Ironborn would not have invaded the North and Lysa would have hit Tywin from the east while the Ironborn raided the Westerlands from the West. Furthermore, without Winterfell falling to the Ironborn, Roose would not have switched sides, as he himself admits to Theon in Dance.

So the result is a Northern victory over the Lannisters, and a combined army of say 25k Northmen, 25k Rivermen, 20k Ironborn and 25k Valemen, for a total of around 100,000 soldiers under the banners of the Northern alliance. In time, the North, Riverlands and Vale could raise even more men than that, if necessary, and unthreatened by Ironborn raids etc.

Against that they would have basically the Reach and the Stormlands, with Dorne as a mortal enemy of both those kingdoms, and therefore an additional potential ally to the North.

In short, it would be a stalemate, and Renly/Stannis would be forced to accept this outcome,given that the Reach is not in a strategically powerful location, and relies solely on numerical strength to counter the stronger natural borders of other regions such as the Vale, Dorne etc.

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7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

If he got Balon and Lysa on board, the Ironborn would not have invaded the North and Lysa would have hit Tywin from the east while the Ironborn raided the Westerlands from the West. Furthermore, without Winterfell falling to the Ironborn, Roose would not have switched sides, as he himself admits to Theon in Dance.

Its not that easy. To start with Ironman reaving would have amounted to little in regards to change the main course of the war. The Westerland gold mines are not along the coasts while Castely Rock and potentially also Lannisport is not likely to go down without extensive sieges where I think the Ironmen would not per necessity be successful. To make a successful dent and be a more powerful dent than what Robb managed in his own ineffective raiding in the Westerlands, the Ironmen would need to leave their ships and venture inland in force. Thus negating their greatest asset and leave the Reach coast free to support their king.

To this the Vale is and was always north of Tywin's position so "hit Tywin from the east" is not likely unless the Valemen made it over to the Crownlands by ship first. But you are correct in that Roose would not have abandoned Robb.

The main problem is that at no point does this trumph the Lannister position and coming alliance with the Tyrells. And that's the deciding factor in the war.

7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So the result is a Northern victory over the Lannisters, and a combined army of say 25k Northmen, 25k Rivermen, 20k Ironborn and 25k Valemen, for a total of around 100,000 soldiers under the banners of the Northern alliance. In time, the North, Riverlands and Vale could raise even more men than that, if necessary, and unthreatened by Ironborn raids etc.

Not really. A more reasonable thing is that all the forces in the West hunkers down for many long sieges, or at least two in the forms of Lannisport and Casterly Rock, while Tywin falls back to King's Landing to meet up with the Tyrells and smash Stannis outside the gates. Thus concluding the alliance between the Houses Tyrell and Lannister which has been in the works since Renly's death, before they turn north again.

Problem is that you've still got both emboldened clansmen armed with Lannister steel and Mance Rayder pushing south, with Stannis potentially also adding into the fray in the North, which would have likely have forced Robb to react to those events, meaning that neither North nor Vale can commit their full forces to distant wars.

7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Against that they would have basically the Reach and the Stormlands, with Dorne as a mortal enemy of both those kingdoms, and therefore an additional potential ally to the North.

Against that they would have Tywin's army, the Crownlands, the Stormlands and the Reach. And the Reach and Stormlands can alone match what Robb's own supporters can provide for him.

Dorne would be without relevance since they want a Targaryen restoration and would not care for separatism up north and did not interfere in the war in the books.

7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

In short, it would be a stalemate, and Renly/Stannis would be forced to accept this outcome,given that the Reach is not in a strategically powerful location, and relies solely on numerical strength to counter the stronger natural borders of other regions such as the Vale, Dorne etc.

Not really. In short it would be a bloodbath with. I would think the West, Riverlands and potentially th Crownlands put to the sword by rampaging armies and watered with blood for many months, before the exhausted sides would need to hunker down for winter.

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3 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

Its not that easy. To start with Ironman reaving would have amounted to little in regards to change the main course of the war. The Westerland gold mines are not along the coasts while Castely Rock and potentially also Lannisport is not likely to go down without extensive sieges where I think the Ironmen would not per necessity be successful. To make a successful dent and be a more powerful dent than what Robb managed in his own ineffective raiding in the Westerlands, the Ironmen would need to leave their ships and venture inland in force. Thus negating their greatest asset and leave the Reach coast free to support their king.

To this the Vale is and was always north of Tywin's position so "hit Tywin from the east" is not likely unless the Valemen made it over to the Crownlands by ship first. But you are correct in that Roose would not have abandoned Robb.

The main problem is that at no point does this trumph the Lannister position and coming alliance with the Tyrells. And that's the deciding factor in the war.

Not really. A more reasonable thing is that all the forces in the West hunkers down for many long sieges, or at least two in the forms of Lannisport and Casterly Rock, while Tywin falls back to King's Landing to meet up with the Tyrells and smash Stannis outside the gates. Thus concluding the alliance between the Houses Tyrell and Lannister which has been in the works since Renly's death, before they turn north again.

Problem is that you've still got both emboldened clansmen armed with Lannister steel and Mance Rayder pushing south, with Stannis potentially also adding into the fray in the North, which would have likely have forced Robb to react to those events, meaning that neither North nor Vale can commit their full forces to distant wars.

Against that they would have Tywin's army, the Crownlands, the Stormlands and the Reach. And the Reach and Stormlands can alone match what Robb's own supporters can provide for him.

Dorne would be without relevance since they want a Targaryen restoration and would not care for separatism up north and did not interfere in the war in the books.

Not really. In short it would be a bloodbath with. I would think the West, Riverlands and potentially th Crownlands put to the sword by rampaging armies and watered with blood for many months, before the exhausted sides would need to hunker down for winter.

The West does not need  to be annexed. It just needs to be taken out of action. With about 5000 cavalry, Robb had the freedom of the West. They could do nothing to stop him, other than cower in their castles garrisoned by the dregs of their forces. Robb only returned from the West because he had to deal with the Ironborn in the North and Tywin at Harrenhal. Not because the Westerman could eject him from the West. So if they cannot even eject his 5000 cavalry, how could they involve themselves further in the war outside their own borders?

And this was without the Ironborn raiding their shores as allies to Robb. Now imagine that Robb did not have to worry about returning North, and had the West effectively neutralized (not conquered, just neutralized as a threat) thanks to ongoing Ironborn raids, and with Jaime's 15k and Stafford Oxcross hosts slaughtered.

So he now returns to the Riverlands, where Tywin is besieged at Harrenhal by Roose's army of 10k, and say 25k Vale soldiers. Add to that Edmure who has in this situation been able to raise much more of the Riverlands strength due to Tywin being on the retreat rather than harrying the Riverlands at will.

Plus without the Ironborn threat, Robb could call even more reinforcements from the North if he needed them. Which he would not even need at this point in time.

Tywin would either have to hunker down in Harrenhal indefinitely, and eventually be starved out, or he would need to retreat to King's Landing, with his 20k being whittled down by the vastly superior numbers of the Northmen, Valemen and Rivermen. Other than trusting in Tywin's "genius" to figure out a path to victory, the West is effectively screwed at this  point.

I doubt Renly or the Reach for that matter had the appetite for a decades long war of attrition. They were planning on an easy capture of the Throne with overwhelming numbers, not for an extended war against a foe of similar strength and a superior strategic position.

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10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The West does not need  to be annexed. It just needs to be taken out of action. With about 5000 cavalry, Robb had the freedom of the West. They could do nothing to stop him, other than cower in their castles garrisoned by the dregs of their forces. Robb only returned from the West because he had to deal with the Ironborn in the North and Tywin at Harrenhal. Not because the Westerman could eject him from the West. So if they cannot even eject his 5000 cavalry, how could they involve themselves further in the war outside their own borders?

It don't matter as the West's army is in the field with Tywin. 20 000 men or so and everything that Robb accomplished in the West amounted to...nothing at all. He couldn't take key positions to force the Lannisters to surrender and its unlikely that he would manage the same feat now, and thus further raiding in the West would have amounted to about as much.

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And this was without the Ironborn raiding their shores as allies to Robb. Now imagine that Robb did not have to worry about returning North, and had the West effectively neutralized (not conquered, just neutralized as a threat) thanks to ongoing Ironborn raids, and with Jaime's 15k and Stafford Oxcross hosts slaughtered.

I would imagine that Robb would ride around the West for a while before realizing his plan is about as useful as nipples on a breastplate and so return to the Riverlands after valuable time has been lost and the Lannisters and Tyrells have joined forces.

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

So he now returns to the Riverlands, where Tywin is besieged at Harrenhal by Roose's army of 10k, and say 25k Vale soldiers. Add to that Edmure who has in this situation been able to raise much more of the Riverlands strength due to Tywin being on the retreat rather than harrying the Riverlands at will.

Not really. Robb returns after the news of the victory of the Blackwater and the alliance between the Lannisters and the Tyrells. And after his plan has failed completely. So its more likley that we would be watching at potentially the largest battle in the history of Westeros since the Redgrass Field. If it comes to a single deciding battle that is and it don't became many different armies who skirmishes, sieges and so on with each other.

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Plus without the Ironborn threat, Robb could call even more reinforcements from the North if he needed them. Which he would not even need at this point in time.

You have failed to take into account Mance Ryder and Stannis potential intervention in the North. That would drain troops away.

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Tywin would either have to hunker down in Harrenhal indefinitely, and eventually be starved out, or he would need to retreat to King's Landing, with his 20k being whittled down by the vastly superior numbers of the Northmen, Valemen and Rivermen. Other than trusting in Tywin's "genius" to figure out a path to victory, the West is effectively screwed at this  point.

Problem is that besiegers need to eat as well and Tywin has been making a wasteland around Harrenhall and loaded the food inside the castle for some time. And with no port nearby it ain't going to be a fun thing to besiege that castle if Tywin remains. And if he don't remain, why there's some 100 000 soldiers under Lannister and Tyrell banners hanging out at King's Landing. So much for that numerical superiority.

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I doubt Renly or the Reach for that matter had the appetite for a decades long war of attrition. They were planning on an easy capture of the Throne with overwhelming numbers, not for an extended war against a foe of similar strength and a superior strategic position.

There won't be a decades of attribution since "Winter is Coming" and thus hostilities would need to take hold in a few years at most. The Reachmen were perfectly willing and able to get into a scrap during the Dance of the Dragons and the Blackfyre Rebellion. I see no reason as to why they would be afraid to go for the gold this time as well. And seeing how the major roads comes together at King's Landing it seems like Tywin will have an advantage in land-based mobility over his foes who must need to cross between major roads and possible across minor bridges and fords while Tywin can follow one of the big roads to get him where he wants to go, if it comes to a prolonged war. So while Robb would have superior defensive positions to fall back on, I don't see the larger strategic advantage he would possess in a war beyond the North and the Vale.

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1 hour ago, UnFit Finlay said:

All in all, I don't think there was anyway for Robb to actually win the war.

Basically, this.

But, he could have

1. Assign someone to quickly raise/train another host like Stafford Lannister. He had to leave the North in a hurry and if the region has a strength of ~45000 men, he could have easily doubled up his initial numbers. Riverlands should have been to raise more men even after the blunders of Edmure. It's weird that the Freys were the only significant house to have numbers to back the Northmen.

2. Keep updating your important commanders about the plans.

3. Bend the knee to Stannis after Renly's death. I know he won't be the King in the North but at least he could have been able to keep his head.

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12 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

Key 3 things he shouldn't have done to make everything better on his side:

  1. Don't send Theon back
  2. Don't marry Jeyne 
  3. Don't give Roose control over such a large army

Basically he should have listened to Cat

 Actually Cat wanted Roose as commander of army and Robb listened to her.

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49 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

It don't matter as the West's army is in the field with Tywin. 20 000 men or so and everything that Robb accomplished in the West amounted to...nothing at all. He couldn't take key positions to force the Lannisters to surrender and its unlikely that he would manage the same feat now, and thus further raiding in the West would have amounted to about as much.

I would imagine that Robb would ride around the West for a while before realizing his plan is about as useful as nipples on a breastplate and so return to the Riverlands after valuable time has been lost and the Lannisters and Tyrells have joined forces.

Not really. Robb returns after the news of the victory of the Blackwater and the alliance between the Lannisters and the Tyrells. And after his plan has failed completely. So its more likley that we would be watching at potentially the largest battle in the history of Westeros since the Redgrass Field. If it comes to a single deciding battle that is and it don't became many different armies who skirmishes, sieges and so on with each other.

You have failed to take into account Mance Ryder and Stannis potential intervention in the North. That would drain troops away.

Problem is that besiegers need to eat as well and Tywin has been making a wasteland around Harrenhall and loaded the food inside the castle for some time. And with no port nearby it ain't going to be a fun thing to besiege that castle if Tywin remains. And if he don't remain, why there's some 100 000 soldiers under Lannister and Tyrell banners hanging out at King's Landing. So much for that numerical superiority.

There won't be a decades of attribution since "Winter is Coming" and thus hostilities would need to take hold in a few years at most. The Reachmen were perfectly willing and able to get into a scrap during the Dance of the Dragons and the Blackfyre Rebellion. I see no reason as to why they would be afraid to go for the gold this time as well. And seeing how the major roads comes together at King's Landing it seems like Tywin will have an advantage in land-based mobility over his foes who must need to cross between major roads and possible across minor bridges and fords while Tywin can follow one of the big roads to get him where he wants to go, if it comes to a prolonged war. So while Robb would have superior defensive positions to fall back on, I don't see the larger strategic advantage he would possess in a war beyond the North and the Vale.

Sticking to your guns, I see. I don't see you actually addressing my points, but be that as it may.

Ultimately, what we are left with in this scenario is the West, Reach and part of the Stormlands allied against the North, Iron Isles, Vale and Riverlands. With Dorne - the mortal enemy of the Reach and Stormlands (not to mention with a 15 year long grievance against House Lannister) ripe for an alliance with the Northern faction.

Pretty much a stalemate at best for the Reach-West faction, but more likely inevitable defeat in the long run.

 

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4 hours ago, UnFit Finlay said:

All in all, I don't think there was anyway for Robb to actually win the war.

Have to agree with you, do you think he would have had a better chance if the Vale was behind him? 

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