House Hightower: Dany or Aegon?

[Tyrion1991]

I watched a very interesting YouTube video about this and they were basically speculating that with Oldtown besieged be Euron that they would seek the aid of Aegon and thus like the Hightowers during the Dance with Dragons will end up opposing a Targaryen Queen. Theres also some push that they support the Maester Conspiracy. 

However I think this isn't set up to happen for a few reasons:

* House Hightower has a huge army. The problem they have with Euron is that Cersei took the Redwyne fleet to deal with Dragonstone. So what they need are ships or a way of dealing with Eurons ships. The problem is that Aegon does not have any ships and its been stressed that he was dropped off and the fleet left.

* Aegons army is on the other side of the continent. They cant really leave the Stormlands without exposing themselves and Aegons plan seems to be to take Kings Landing. To travel all the way south and fight the Ironborn really is not in his immediate strategic interests. If he takes the capital, then he will probably push on to Casterly Rock where the Lannister army is. So the only way he could go down south would be if the Redwyne fleet defected and carried him there; but then this would mean abandoning hius campaign to take Kings Landing. Basically he is too embroiled to fight Euron, on the off chance that the Hightowers may join him. 

* It is mentioned that Lord Leyton sent agents out into the east looking for allies, specifically his son who was sent to Lys to meet Lyneese Hightower and get sellsails. Now the video I watched argued that Septa Lemora is actually Melora the Maid; but this seems a stretch given all the intrigue of making her a witch and all the sorcery. That seems quite relevant to Sams storyline. Why mention that if she is really just a normal Septa with Aegon? More to the point, why sent agents to Lys if your whole plan was for Aegon and Dany to be travelling from Volantis anyway? This suggests Lord Leyton was not involved in Varys scheme; much as Lord Doran Martell wasn't either. 

 

* It is extremely likely that House Martel will join Aegon and whilst in Jon Con's chapters it is mentioned that the Golden Company has friends in the Reach, why would it be House Hightower? For one, Lord Leyton's sister Alarie is married to Mace Tyrell. So Queen Margery is his grand daughter. He has a stake in the monarchy. But clearly Jon Con has written off the Tyrells as a potential ally. The most immediate and physically close Tyrell bannerman who may defect is actually House Tarly. With the bulk of Hightower strength so far away, it makes their defection seem less likely compared to the much closer bannermen like House Tarly. But basically too many Houses are being set up to join Aegon and if this is going to be another Dance with Dragons then some houses must join Daenerys? Right? 

* With all the mentions of Lord Leyton and his daughter dabbling in sorcery I can't see them being allies to the Maesters Conspiracy. Plus, all this talk of Dragonglass candles and him sealing himself in a tower from which you can see the wall makes me think that he is very much aware that there is a looming threat and every weapon has to be used to fight that. In fact its likely the reason why his house has remained aloof from the affairs of the great houses.

* The opposition House Hightower had to Queen Rhaenys could equally be GRRM foreshadowing that he will invert the roles in the current timeline. So that actually House Hightower will end up supporting Daenerys as Queen. 

 

So why would Lord Leyton ally with Daenerys:

* Her dragons and inevitable fleet (how else can she get to Westeros) means she can deal with Eurons ships. If Vic joins her then she will make Euron one of her enemies so there is a clear logic to destroying him that does not exist. In theory, if she kills Euron, then she could gain the armies of Hightower and Greyjoy. 

* Its quite possible that Jorah will reunite with Dany and Lynesse could well be the one who travels to meet with Dany. This puts House Hightower in a very good position to make a pact with Daenerys. Indeed, if Lord Leyton has access to the glass candles then he could very well be aware of Daenerys and the going to hire sellswords could simply be a cover story. His son and daughter have actually been sent to meet Daenerys. 

* If he is aware of the coming Long Night, then he could believe that he should support Daenerys and bring her dragons to Westeros. 

* It gives a chance for Sam to meet Jorah and tell him about his Dads last wish.

* If the Tyrells become enemies of the Lannisters and Aegon, which seems likely given Jon Cons chapter and the events thus far; that really only leaves Dany for them to turn to.

 

Why would GRRM do this:

* Oldtown is a rich and hugely important city with a deepwater harbour. If you want to invade Westeros then its a pretty good choice. Access to the Mander could allow Danys army to flood the Reach. 

* It is where Aegon the Conqueror was crowned.  It would make symbolic sense for her to also be crowned here.

* If we are building to a second Dance with Dragons it makes sense to keep Dany separate from Aegon and have them build separate bastions of power. Giving Dany the second largest city in Westeros whilst Aegon takes Kings Landing makes a lot of sense to me. It would be pretty dull if Dany just goes straight to Dragonstone and then Kings Landing like in the TV show. 

* As mentioned above, it could create some interesting story telling meetings and options. Jorah meeting Lyneese, Sam meeting Jorah, Vic facing Euron, the Maesters and the Dragons and for this to happen Dany has to go to Oldtown. But if, as in the show, she lands further North, then its doubtful any of this build up will amount to much. 

 

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

I think Houses Hightower and Redwyne might be on Aegon’s side already. House Hightower, of course, was the most prominent supporter of the greens in the Dance of the Dragons, and at least some Hightowers supported Daemon in the First Blackfyre Rebellion.

Notably, Lord Manfred Hightower heeded the advice of the High Septon, and refused to march with King Mern of the Reach against Aegon the Conqueror. Manfred opened his gates to Aegon, and Aegon was crowned by the High Septon, leader of the Faith, of which Hightower is the most prominent supporter. Hightower’s support of Aegon the Conqueror could foreshadow Hightower’s support of our wee Aegon. Whereas Daenerys has been uninstructed in the Faith of the Seven other than whatever Viserys has told her, Aegon is receiving formal instruction from Septa Lemore. Although the leading theory suggests that Lemore is Wenda the White Fawn, another theory suggests that she is Malora Hightower, called the Mad Maid.

Lynesse Hightower was wed to Jorah, but she abandoned him for a Lysene merchant prince named Tregar Ormollen. She became Tregar’s chief concubine and apparently rules his house. As the Ironmen invaded the Shield Islands and began raiding the Arbor, along the coast, and up the Mander, Lord Leyton Hightower was ordered by House Tyrell to see to his own defenses. He was reportedly locked atop his tower with the Mad Maid, where he had remained for over a decade, consulting books of spells. His heir Baelor began building ships, two more sons were tending to the defense of Oldtown and training recruits, and his youngest son was traveling to Lys to hire sellsails and to enlist the aid of Tregar Ormollen. First, we have the Lys connection with Varys. This by itself does not amount to much, but Lys is one of the Three Daughters along with Tyrosh and Myr. The Three Daughters, of course aided the greens in the Dance of the Dragons. As our saga developed we learned of a trade war between Lys and Tyrosh. Myr was about to join Tyrosh, but curiously, the Archon of Tyrosh, the brother of the man who had been noted at the betrothal of Daenerys to Drogo, which had been brokered by Illyrio, offered terms to Lys to end the war. This appeared to be because the Golden Company, shockingly, had just broken its contract to fight for Myr. Could Illyrio be brokering a new alliance of the Three Daughters?

[LordImp]

Neither of them

[Tyrion1991]

7 hours ago, LordImp said:

Neither of them

 

So like in the show they remain a non presence and don't take part in the novels? Dany and Aegon being in Westeros is a big deal I can't see the Hightowers not being involved. They are strong, but I can't see them forming their own independent faction. 

 

Presumably at least some of the Westerosi Houses have to side with Daenerys. How else can we have a Dance with Dragons if Dany is entirely reliant on her Essosi army?

 

Cersei: Lannisters, Freys, Boltons/Northern Houses, technically the Tyrells since they are married to Tommen

Stannis: Starks, Northern Houses

Aegon: Stormlands, Martell, likely that Tarly will defect and join him. 

Euron: Greyjoy and all the Ironborn

Littlefinger: Arryn and the Vale

 

So I count five factions here, that is a lot, so a Hightower 6th faction is extremely unlikely.

 

Almost all of the Great Houses have been definitively aligned to a particular faction. The only on the fence ones we have are House Arryn and House Tyrell. Dany currently does not have the full allegiance of a single Great House, Vic (assuming he lives with his fleet) is only a small portion of the Greyjoy strength; he is basically just a rebel at this point. Barring some major character deaths, House Tyrell seems bound to the Lannisters as allies; hence why JonCon identifies them as enemies rather than as potential rivals. House Arryn joining Dany is extremely unlikely for a host of reasons. Its a faction that has anti Targ sentiment, Aegon/Dany is part of Varys scheme and Littlefinger is opposed to him. So by extension, if Littlefinger is hostile to Varys then Littlefinger is hostile to the Targaryens and would likely back the Lannisters; like he did in the War of Five Kings. In fact his plan could be to use the Knights of the Vale on Aegon.

Which leaves Dany with quite literally no major Westerosi House on her side. Vic beating Euron is extremely unlikely given how GRRM has built up Euron as this dangerous terror of the seas. The only remaining source of potential allies is some of the larger Houses of the Reach. House Hightower is a very good bet for this.

@Lost Melnibonean

But Hightower is in absolutely no position to help Aegon. Both Hightower and Redwyne are being assailed by Ironborn. Currently Aegon is completely occupied by his campaign in the Stormlands and is likely to try to attack Kings Landing. Plus he has no navy. He physically cannot deal with Euron and he is in completely the wrong position to do anything about it. Lord Leyton isn't going to march his men off to help Aegon with his city besieged.

You mention that the Tyrells, and by extension the capital, have created a situation in which the Reach Lords are being left to fend for themselves. That, to me, suggests a storyline in which somebody is going to go and try to save their bacon. The only way it could be Aegon is if he decides to not go straight for the capital and given his character as somebody who wanted to lead the charge of Storms End, not wanting to be seen as a beggar; this to me suggests that he is going to go straight for the jugular. I mean, they could have asked to be dropped off at Oldtown if they had really wanted to. Plus GRRM would have to conjure a fleet for him. Lets say the entire Redwyne fleet defects and carries the GC to Oldtown. He beats Euron and House Hightower joins him. 

At this point, Aegon becomes too powerful. If he wins the Martells, Stormlands and the Reach; I cannot imagine the Lannisters being able to defeat him. He would control Storms End, Dragonstone and Westeros's second city. Dany could still beat him. But I cannot imagine GRRM wanting to render the Lannister faction impotent or a second rate power. I think he very much wants them as a pillar of the story. Which to me suggests that Aegon will essentially split the potential Targ supporters and weaken Dany; but not actually prevail against the Lannisters. Plus, for all of that to happen, beating Euron, Redwyne fleet defecting, Oldtown joining him, Tarly joining him, taking Storms End, he would have had to have EVERYTHING go completely his way. I would be very surprised if GRRM had things be so one sided for any faction.

I would also be very surprised for GRRM to have absolutely no Westerosi Houses join Dany. Even Rhaenys during the ADWD did have several houses join her. None of those can during this round because of Roberts Rebellion. 

Just because the Hightowers and those free cities supported the Greens in the past does not mean that history will repeat itself. For one thing, the only reason Hightower fought with the Greens was because a Hightower was mother to their claimant. It wasn't, really, out of any particular principle against Rhaenys being Queen. Note that most of the Blacks were factions which were part of Roberts Rebellion in the Riverlands, Vale and North. Factions that will only join Dany come the apocalypse. So House Hightower in the present has no actual reason to be against Dany being Queen because they were Greens, anymore than the North would support her because they backed the Blacks. I don't think GRRM would spoil his own novel by writing faction allegience into stone. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Lord Varys]

The Hightowers are going to bend the knee to Euron once they hear that Euron has crushed the Redwyne fleet and taken the Arbor.

They won't join Aegon, and they won't join Daenerys. At least not while Euron is still a thing. Which he might be until the very end.

[LordImp]

@Tyrion1991 The Hightowers are definetly important but I dont see them getting involved with the war for the throne. If they really want a grip over the IT then they should have thrown all their forces to Margaery. 

The way I see it the Hightowers are more involved with the magic . So the most likely option now is what  @Lord Varys said , they will join Euron either willingly or unwillingly.

[Tyrion1991]

But if Lord Leyton can see the future through glass candles then he would know that Dany was going to invade Westeros and is why he held back fully committing to one or the other during Five Kings.

 

Judging by Euron on the Shields he is fighting a war of annialation. If his army took Oldtown they would raise it to the ground.

[LordImp]

1 minute ago, Tyrion1991 said:

But if Lord Leyton can see the future through glass candles then he would know that Dany was going to invade Westeros and is why he held back fully committing to one or the other during Five Kings.

 

Judging by Euron on the Shields he is fighting a war of annialation. If his army took Oldtown they would raise it to the ground.

Euron dosen' t have enough men to destroy Oldtown. What Euron will probably do is to blockade Oldtown and thus stopping Hightower's trade . With no trade Hightower loose wealth and power , so they might have to join him to secure their trade. 

 

[Tyrion1991]

4 hours ago, LordImp said:

Euron dosen' t have enough men to destroy Oldtown. What Euron will probably do is to blockade Oldtown and thus stopping Hightower's trade . With no trade Hightower loose wealth and power , so they might have to join him to secure their trade. 

 

 

Assuming he doesn't have a plan to gain entry to Oldtown.

 He killed all the Lords of the Shield Isles and distributed them as spoils to his men. Why would Oldtown be different? The Hightowers won't be able to make peace with such a man. He will kill them and make Saltwives of their wives and daughters.

Or Lord Leyton, who sent his son off to Essos to get help might get help off Dany and her dragons. Why would he side with Euron, only to end up against the Dragonqueen? If he can see the future it makes far more sense to side with Dany now and hold off Euron. 

 

Also, if the Warlocks are manipulating Euron, this could set them at odds with whatever magic the Hightowers have. Perhaps Euron covers this. Again, makes Euron a major enemy and provides incentive to get allies.

[joluoto2]

I think it very much depend on who will be able to help them deal with the Ironborn threat (if anyone even is in position to do that).

[Lord Varys]

Euron could try to take Oldtown by force, but he would lose a lot of men in the process of that, and could most likely not hold the city anyway. Why would he try to do a thing like that? What he could gain from that? If he wants more plunder for his men then he can take the Arbor. It should be as rich as Oldtown and would be completely defenseless after the Redwyne fleet is crushed.

That in itself is going to send a message to Oldtown. Surrender or be destroyed - and then the Hightowers will surrender, at least for the time being. That way Euron is going to get a foothold on the mainland until he can marry Cersei and secure the support of the Lannisters.

How long the Hightowers are going to stick with him is unclear - probably not that long.

In the end they might indeed join Daenerys considering that Sam, Sarella, and perhaps even soon other important people there know who the true savior is.

2 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

He killed all the Lords of the Shield Isles and distributed them as spoils to his men. Why would Oldtown be different? The Hightowers won't be able to make peace with such a man. He will kill them and make Saltwives of their wives and daughters.

Euron has a smiling eye. He showed it during the Kingsmoot, and later to his sycophants on the Shield Isles. Now he is going to show his evil eye to the Redwynes. But then he can show his smiling eye to the Hightowers again. The carrot and the stick are more effective than the stick all the time. And Euron knows this. That's how he won the allegiance of the Ironborn.

And if Euron wants something in Oldtown or the Citadel how better way to get that by making peace with Oldtown by convincing them to switch kings - from Tommen to him. If he offers favorable terms there is nothing wrong with that. That way he can enter Oldtown and have his agents find and steal whatever he is looking for without risking it slipping through his fingers.

[The Commentator]

On ‎9‎/‎3‎/‎2017 at 9:17 AM, Tyrion1991 said:

I watched a very interesting YouTube video about this and they were basically speculating that with Oldtown besieged be Euron that they would seek the aid of Aegon and thus like the Hightowers during the Dance with Dragons will end up opposing a Targaryen Queen. Theres also some push that they support the Maester Conspiracy. 

However I think this isn't set up to happen for a few reasons:

* House Hightower has a huge army. The problem they have with Euron is that Cersei took the Redwyne fleet to deal with Dragonstone. So what they need are ships or a way of dealing with Eurons ships. The problem is that Aegon does not have any ships and its been stressed that he was dropped off and the fleet left.

* Aegons army is on the other side of the continent. They cant really leave the Stormlands without exposing themselves and Aegons plan seems to be to take Kings Landing. To travel all the way south and fight the Ironborn really is not in his immediate strategic interests. If he takes the capital, then he will probably push on to Casterly Rock where the Lannister army is. So the only way he could go down south would be if the Redwyne fleet defected and carried him there; but then this would mean abandoning hius campaign to take Kings Landing. Basically he is too embroiled to fight Euron, on the off chance that the Hightowers may join him. 

* It is mentioned that Lord Leyton sent agents out into the east looking for allies, specifically his son who was sent to Lys to meet Lyneese Hightower and get sellsails. Now the video I watched argued that Septa Lemora is actually Melora the Maid; but this seems a stretch given all the intrigue of making her a witch and all the sorcery. That seems quite relevant to Sams storyline. Why mention that if she is really just a normal Septa with Aegon? More to the point, why sent agents to Lys if your whole plan was for Aegon and Dany to be travelling from Volantis anyway? This suggests Lord Leyton was not involved in Varys scheme; much as Lord Doran Martell wasn't either. 

 

* It is extremely likely that House Martel will join Aegon and whilst in Jon Con's chapters it is mentioned that the Golden Company has friends in the Reach, why would it be House Hightower? For one, Lord Leyton's sister Alarie is married to Mace Tyrell. So Queen Margery is his grand daughter. He has a stake in the monarchy. But clearly Jon Con has written off the Tyrells as a potential ally. The most immediate and physically close Tyrell bannerman who may defect is actually House Tarly. With the bulk of Hightower strength so far away, it makes their defection seem less likely compared to the much closer bannermen like House Tarly. But basically too many Houses are being set up to join Aegon and if this is going to be another Dance with Dragons then some houses must join Daenerys? Right? 

* With all the mentions of Lord Leyton and his daughter dabbling in sorcery I can't see them being allies to the Maesters Conspiracy. Plus, all this talk of Dragonglass candles and him sealing himself in a tower from which you can see the wall makes me think that he is very much aware that there is a looming threat and every weapon has to be used to fight that. In fact its likely the reason why his house has remained aloof from the affairs of the great houses.

* The opposition House Hightower had to Queen Rhaenys could equally be GRRM foreshadowing that he will invert the roles in the current timeline. So that actually House Hightower will end up supporting Daenerys as Queen. 

 

So why would Lord Leyton ally with Daenerys:

* Her dragons and inevitable fleet (how else can she get to Westeros) means she can deal with Eurons ships. If Vic joins her then she will make Euron one of her enemies so there is a clear logic to destroying him that does not exist. In theory, if she kills Euron, then she could gain the armies of Hightower and Greyjoy. 

* Its quite possible that Jorah will reunite with Dany and Lynesse could well be the one who travels to meet with Dany. This puts House Hightower in a very good position to make a pact with Daenerys. Indeed, if Lord Leyton has access to the glass candles then he could very well be aware of Daenerys and the going to hire sellswords could simply be a cover story. His son and daughter have actually been sent to meet Daenerys. 

* If he is aware of the coming Long Night, then he could believe that he should support Daenerys and bring her dragons to Westeros. 

* It gives a chance for Sam to meet Jorah and tell him about his Dads last wish.

* If the Tyrells become enemies of the Lannisters and Aegon, which seems likely given Jon Cons chapter and the events thus far; that really only leaves Dany for them to turn to.

 

Why would GRRM do this:

* Oldtown is a rich and hugely important city with a deepwater harbour. If you want to invade Westeros then its a pretty good choice. Access to the Mander could allow Danys army to flood the Reach. 

* It is where Aegon the Conqueror was crowned.  It would make symbolic sense for her to also be crowned here.

* If we are building to a second Dance with Dragons it makes sense to keep Dany separate from Aegon and have them build separate bastions of power. Giving Dany the second largest city in Westeros whilst Aegon takes Kings Landing makes a lot of sense to me. It would be pretty dull if Dany just goes straight to Dragonstone and then Kings Landing like in the TV show. 

* As mentioned above, it could create some interesting story telling meetings and options. Jorah meeting Lyneese, Sam meeting Jorah, Vic facing Euron, the Maesters and the Dragons and for this to happen Dany has to go to Oldtown. But if, as in the show, she lands further North, then its doubtful any of this build up will amount to much. 

 

 

The most likely scenario is the joining of Houses Targaryen (Daenerys) and Blackfyre (Aegon).  Martin carefully introduced the Blackfyres into the story and I am sure Aegon will have a part to play.  Since this is a story of family clashes and reconciliation, Daenerys and Aegon will bring their two houses together.  House Targaryen is the most important family in the story and peace between the two branches of the family will only make them stronger. 

There will be initial friction between Daenerys and Aegon but that can be worked out.  Aegon can never, ever prove his parentage.  Nobody can.  Only Daenerys can prove her Targaryen heritage.  She will win any disagreement between herself and Aegon.  They will come to an agreement in the end and if Aegon has any sense he will see that Daenerys is the more able person to rule. 

House Martell will initially support Aegon because Arrianne is ambitious and wants to become queen.  She's not cut out for ruling or anything complicated.  She's not fit.  But Aegon is young and dumb and he will probably have relations with her.  In the end, it will be about building a strong political alliance and he will drop Arrianne for Daenerys. 

House Hightower will support Daenerys from the start.  There is no reason for them to support Aegon.  The problem between the Blacks and the greens is distant history.  The Hightowers have seen by now how incompetent the Baratheons, Jon Arryn, and their Stark allies are.  Robert's rule did more harm than good.  The Hightowers  will have no reason to oppose the return of a true Targaryen. 

[Tyrion1991]

Oh I think there will be a Dance. GRRM has a recurring theme where people lack all the information and make decisions that cause absolutely unnecessary disaster. Roberts Rebellion for example. So a second dance being caused by miscommunication and lack of info (Arriane assumes her bro has married Dany and so marrys Aegon which cuts Dany out of succession). JC and co will probably seriously underestimate how Dany will react to this since she is convinced of her own manifest Destiny and will likely think Aegon is fake.

 

People might doubt Aegon legitimacy. But:

- That didn't stop people following Joffrey or Tommen. 

- Dany  is a woman and that is enough reason for people to side against her. It's illegal and would be opposed on principle.

- People who side with Aegon are not going to be too fussed over bloodlines; these are pragmatic men. In other words; they won't care either way.

- Dany is already being written off as being "as mad as her father". If most Lords have this opinion then this is the end of the matter. I mean I am not sure why all the bad stuff is filtering to Westeros and not "the beautiful queen who freed all the slaves and cast down the evil Lords". But the show and the books are hinting at this being the common perception.

 

But with the Glass Candles the Hightowers can actually see Dany for themselves. 

 

 

[Faint]

My vote is neither. I think the Hightowers will be too preoccupied with Euron and too remote from either Aegon or Daenerys to factor in their confrontation. 

[Tyrion1991]

19 hours ago, Faint said:

My vote is neither. I think the Hightowers will be too preoccupied with Euron and too remote from either Aegon or Daenerys to factor in their confrontation. 

 

Only two books to go. Dany is increasingly going to factor into everyone's plans. Either Euron destroys Hightower: unlikely given how much build up they have had. Or, they survive and are drawn into Danny's invasion.

I mean hypothetically, if Vic dies, there's a chance Euron could succeed in luring Dany into an alliance. Which could mean House Hightowers destruction before dany learns her mistake.