What if Aegon VI sailed earlier?

[ChuckPunch]

On 9/4/2017 at 3:23 AM, devilish said:

His best chance is to land in the Riverlands.

Where exactly? Maidenpool?

He'd have to take Harrenhal as his base which is not exactly an easy feat. At that point he would be beset with enemies on all sides almost immediately. I would venture to say the Riverlands is the worst place he could land. His actual landing place of the Stormlands, a largely unmanned and vulnerable region of strategic significance (he can more easily ally Dorne and take the Crownlands or the Reach from their unguarded sides) is by far the best thing for Aegon's ambitions. 

[Ralphis Baratheon]

9 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

And Dorne doesn't have 70k! It has a max of 50 and even that is very likely to be far exaggerated. 20-30 thousand seems much more likely.

I'm confused by this 50,000 number as well. I thought the whole "Dorne has 50,000 troops" was an exaggeration Daeron I made to make his short lived conquest of Dorne seem more impressive.

The last war Dorne fought in was Rebort's Rebellion and they only sent 10,000 spears, and that was with Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon being held hostage in King's Landing. Doran had to know that if the rebels won and reached the capital that all three would be endanger. Also if the rebels won there was a good chance his nephew would never sit the Iron Throne. To me this seems like a situation where Dorne would want to do it's very best to make sure the loyalists won the war. Doran sending only 10,000 spears out of a possible 50,000 doesn't make sense, unless he didn't care for his sister and her children very much. 

[Adam Yozza]

11 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

20,000 + 50,000 = 70,000.   It's OK Man.   Breathe.   Apologies if I've over estimated the Golden Company numbers.   Now go back and read the post.   

Dorne hasn't participated in anything.   Their force, regardless of size,  is largely fresh and intact.   We have no way of really knowing how large the Dornish force is so I chose to err on the side of the Wiki.  

Ah my mistake. Misunderstand what you were saying about the 70,000. Yeah, GC is 10k. Daeron's book and Quentyn say Dorne has 50k but Doran says that's an exaggerated number. 30k seems much more reasonable for the size of their country and it's climate andn terrain.

14 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Hrm...much to ponder in this scenario.    You have to take into consideration that if Aegon goes to Dorne with his 20,000 Golden Company, Doran has an army 70,000 strong to make their mark in the war.   However, Doran being the careful plotter that he is, I would expect he would demand a marriage alliance with Arienne before he does anything.    He takes counsel with Jon Con and Aegon about Dany and insists Dany must marry Quentyn thereby fulfilling the previous contracts and cementing his ultimate plan to gain the throne in the next generation.  However, there is no one in Aegon's force who actually can speak for Dany, but I suppose if Aegon is good enough to convince Doran of his superior claim he could agree to force a marriage?   Considering the forces left to each kingdom at the beginning of the WOT5K, I'm not convinced 70,000 is a good enough number to go up against the superior forces of the Lannisters or Tyrells.   I figure if Aegon marries Arienne the Tyrells wouldn't join forces since all they want is a queen or king.   There is nothing for them so they are most likely to join the Lannisters (if Renly is scared off because Dorne becomes a player).   Stannis, Robb and/or Balon won't support Dorne.   I'm thinking Renly is smarter than his original actions would indicate and his forces would support the Lannisters as well.   Leaves Stannis with virtually no support and Robb with the North.   Whomever steps in to help the Riverlands will have their support against the Lannisters, but they don't have much military strength to offer following Tywin's scouring.  I'm with Doran.   Wait it out and let the others slowly decimate each other to emerge as the superior force afterward.    

It's possible that if Doran thinks Aegon is actually Aegon, and therefore his nephew, he will only ask for marriage alliance with Dany which can be arranged at a later time. But that's a slim chance. So yeah most likely Aegon marries Arianne.

Renly will still crown himself King and the Tyrell's would still join him. At that point Joffrey is betrothed to Sansa and Renly still has good relations with the Reach and is still available for Margaery to marry. Renly's reason for rebelling is that he wants the Lannister power block removed and that Cersei wants to kill him. He hates the Lannisters. He wouldn't join them. He might, if the thought of Dorne and the GC scares him, declare for Aegon. In that case then yeah maybe the Tyrell's jump to the Lannister's; maybe angering the GC's 'friends in the Reach' in the process.

Bear in mind that this scenario is that Aegon lands at the beginning of Clash of Kings. So Renly's already declared himself King with Tyrell support, Tywin's already lost half his army, King's Landing is already rife with discontent and the Riverlands; who still have at least 15k left; have already joined with Robb.

Remember what the GreatJon said "It was the dragons we bowed to but the dragons are dead" or something like that? Does that leave the possibility that the North and Riverlands would be willing to work with Aegon? Far more likely that they'd be willing to follow Rhaegar's son than Aerys' daughter IMO.

[Adam Yozza]

2 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

I'm confused by this 50,000 number as well. I thought the whole "Dorne has 50,000 troops" was an exaggeration Daeron I made to make his short lived conquest of Dorne seem more impressive.

The last war Dorne fought in was Rebort's Rebellion and they only sent 10,000 spears, and that was with Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon being held hostage in King's Landing. Doran had to know that if the rebels won and reached the capital that all three would be endanger. Also if the rebels won there was a good chance his nephew would never sit the Iron Throne. To me this seems like a situation where Dorne would want to do it's very best to make sure the loyalists won the war. Doran sending only 10,000 spears out of a possible 50,000 doesn't make sense, unless he didn't care for his sister and her children very much. 

Yeah I'd say that was more because he thought people like Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully and Ned Stark wouldn't harm innocent women and children. And he was right. He just didn't account for Tywin Lannister. So 10k was a show of support but not full strength because he didn't really want to fight for Aerys and Rhaegar, I don't think.

IIRC in the Wo5K didn't Dorne have 10k spears in both the Boneway and the Princes Pass? Indicating that their fighting strength is 20k, probably able to call upon another 10k in an emergency.

[Curled Finger]

5 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

Ah my mistake. Misunderstand what you were saying about the 70,000. Yeah, GC is 10k. Daeron's book and Quentyn say Dorne has 50k but Doran says that's an exaggerated number. 30k seems much more reasonable for the size of their country and it's climate andn terrain.

It's possible that if Doran thinks Aegon is actually Aegon, and therefore his nephew, he will only ask for marriage alliance with Dany which can be arranged at a later time. But that's a slim chance. So yeah most likely Aegon marries Arianne.

Renly will still crown himself King and the Tyrell's would still join him. At that point Joffrey is betrothed to Sansa and Renly still has good relations with the Reach and is still available for Margaery to marry. Renly's reason for rebelling is that he wants the Lannister power block removed and that Cersei wants to kill him. He hates the Lannisters. He wouldn't join them. He might, if the thought of Dorne and the GC scares him, declare for Aegon. In that case then yeah maybe the Tyrell's jump to the Lannister's; maybe angering the GC's 'friends in the Reach' in the process.

Bear in mind that this scenario is that Aegon lands at the beginning of Clash of Kings. So Renly's already declared himself King with Tyrell support, Tywin's already lost half his army, King's Landing is already rife with discontent and the Riverlands; who still have at least 15k left; have already joined with Robb.

Remember what the GreatJon said "It was the dragons we bowed to but the dragons are dead" or something like that? Does that leave the possibility that the North and Riverlands would be willing to work with Aegon? Far more likely that they'd be willing to follow Rhaegar's son than Aerys' daughter IMO.

Ah Man thanks for replying to the whole thing and your understanding of my miscalculation of Dorne's actual combined forces.   I bolded the parts of your post I wanted to speak to.   I'm still of the mind that Doran would wait.  His (combined) 40,000 men army still isn't enough to go up against Renly or the Lannisters.  Is any other region sympathetic to Dorne?  What of Stannis?  

That bit about the north bowing to dragons was a great quote to bring up in this topic. Still GreatJon makes this statement immediately prior to declaring Robb King in the North.   I don't know.  Would the North at that time bow to a dragon with no dragons?   I think the Riverlands would go with anyone willing to defend them.  I personally think it was stupid of the Vale not to act in the Riverland's defense.   

[Adam Yozza]

1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

Ah Man thanks for replying to the whole thing and your understanding of my miscalculation of Dorne's actual combined forces.   I bolded the parts of your post I wanted to speak to.   I'm still of the mind that Doran would wait.  His (combined) 40,000 men army still isn't enough to go up against Renly or the Lannisters.  Is any other region sympathetic to Dorne?  What of Stannis?  

That bit about the north bowing to dragons was a great quote to bring up in this topic. Still GreatJon makes this statement immediately prior to declaring Robb King in the North.   I don't know.  Would the North at that time bow to a dragon with no dragons?   I think the Riverlands would go with anyone willing to defend them.  I personally think it was stupid of the Vale not to act in the Riverland's defense.   

Definitely stupid of them not to get involved. It's a level of stupidty that only makes sense once you realize Lysa was keeping the Vale out of it because Petyr; backing the Lannister's; told her to.

The North: Maybe. Depends on how much of a good leader Aegon turns out to be; another Mad King/Maegor the Cruel and they wouldn't support him but if he was like Aegon I or either Daeron or Jahaerys then I could see them working out an alliance and eventually kneeling. 

I'm torn on whether Doran would wait or not. 40/50k combined could easily compete with the Lannister's, who at that point only had 20k left in the field, plus Kings Landing's defenders. But yeah, it would be a risk to try and compete with Renly. Not sure if Doran would go for it. On the one hand, he kept his people out of the war in canon and was playing the long game but on the other hand, his opportunity and end goal just fell into his lap with the one of the most trained, experienced and professional armies in the world. He'd definitely send some spies to get a read on Aegon and then meet him himself before making a decision. However; even if Doran still decided to keep out of it, I can't see the rest of Dorne following him on this. Not when a Targ is in Dorne and ready to take justice. I can see the Yronwood's and Dayne's leading most of the other houses in following Aegon despite Doran's orders.

Stannis would probably keep going with his claim and would probably still 'have' Renly killed. The Stormlords would probably still join him at that point. The Tyrell's would either join Aegon or Joffrey. If Mace goes for the latter, however, I can see some (read: a lot) of his bannermen deserting him. The G.C has friends in the Reach and people like Rowan/Tarly/Redwyne are the prime candidates for that. Plus most of the lords of the Crownlands would probably join Aegon once he reached King's Landing.

 

[Curled Finger]

33 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

Definitely stupid of them not to get involved. It's a level of stupidty that only makes sense once you realize Lysa was keeping the Vale out of it because Petyr; backing the Lannister's; told her to.

The North: Maybe. Depends on how much of a good leader Aegon turns out to be; another Mad King/Maegor the Cruel and they wouldn't support him but if he was like Aegon I or either Daeron or Jahaerys then I could see them working out an alliance and eventually kneeling. 

I'm torn on whether Doran would wait or not. 40/50k combined could easily compete with the Lannister's, who at that point only had 20k left in the field, plus Kings Landing's defenders. But yeah, it would be a risk to try and compete with Renly. Not sure if Doran would go for it. On the one hand, he kept his people out of the war in canon and was playing the long game but on the other hand, his opportunity and end goal just fell into his lap with the one of the most trained, experienced and professional armies in the world. He'd definitely send some spies to get a read on Aegon and then meet him himself before making a decision. However; even if Doran still decided to keep out of it, I can't see the rest of Dorne following him on this. Not when a Targ is in Dorne and ready to take justice. I can see the Yronwood's and Dayne's leading most of the other houses in following Aegon despite Doran's orders.

Stannis would probably keep going with his claim and would probably still 'have' Renly killed. The Stormlords would probably still join him at that point. The Tyrell's would either join Aegon or Joffrey. If Mace goes for the latter, however, I can see some (read: a lot) of his bannermen deserting him. The G.C has friends in the Reach and people like Rowan/Tarly/Redwyne are the prime candidates for that. Plus most of the lords of the Crownlands would probably join Aegon once he reached King's Landing.

 

For the most part I agree with you on nearly every count.  My greatest stumbling blocks are the enmity between Dorne and The Reach/Stormlands and Doran's ultimate goal to seat a Dornish person on the Iron Throne.  

The Tyrells seem to have the same plan as Doran: a Tyrell king or queen.  Just happens all they have available is a queen or 2nd son (Garlan? how many Tyrell sons are there?  4?) in this deal.   I can't see either family allowing anything short of their daughter marrying Aegon.  Remember, Doran has a written and witnessed marriage contract.   If Aegon is smart he will not marry Arienne to gain Dorne's support.  He will string Dorne along and play the proverbial queen field to gauge his best move.  Remember in the real story Aegon only goes to Westeros because Tyrion goads him he had to prove to Danaerys that he was a dragon.   What happens if Aegon really has his sights set on Dany?  Would Dorne support him then?  Dorne has no reason to love the Targaryans.  Aerys held Elia and her children hostage to prevent Dorne from rebelling.  

As you point out there are "friends in the Reach".  However, we can't be certain they would turn against the Tyrells.  In ADWD the Redwyns certainly move against the throne, but that throne is Lannisters, not their own great house.  

I'm getting carried away I know.   There is so much valuable information in AFFC/ADWD that I shouldn't apply to this scenario, but I can't seem to help it.  

[elder brother jonothor dar]

7 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

That bit about the north bowing to dragons was a great quote to bring up in this topic. Still GreatJon makes this statement immediately prior to declaring Robb King in the North.   I don't know.  Would the North at that time bow to a dragon with no dragons?   I think the Riverlands would go with anyone willing to defend them.  I personally think it was stupid of the Vale not to act in the Riverland's defense.   

A lot of jumping to conclusions here agreed Umber states they bowed to the dragons 300 years ago and killed the dragons 15 years ago does not mean a thing in regards to this new timeline.

Why was the Vale stupid though?

They where comrades in RR sure but the Vale comes out of the wo5k very well, they are currently the strongest of the 7K and have their whole harvest 

[Adam Yozza]

31 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

They where comrades in RR sure but the Vale comes out of the wo5k very well, they are currently the strongest of the 7K and have their whole harvest 

Yeah they did. But 90% of the Lords in the Vale would still have preferred to be involved. It wasn't by choice that Redfort, Waynwood, Hunter, Templeton, Belmoore and Royce stayed out of it; each of them would have loved to avenge Robert, Ned and Jon (at least as far as they knew for the last one).

[Curled Finger]

1 hour ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

A lot of jumping to conclusions here agreed Umber states they bowed to the dragons 300 years ago and killed the dragons 15 years ago does not mean a thing in regards to this new timeline.

Why was the Vale stupid though?

They where comrades in RR sure but the Vale comes out of the wo5k very well, they are currently the strongest of the 7K and have their whole harvest 

Just my sentimentality about the Vale not protecting their brothers to the immediate south.   Had the Vale sent even 10,000 men the Riverlands may be well less decimated than they are.   Of course there are all those Freys to take care of them now.   It just makes me sad.  So many resources completely wasted in  the Riverlands.    Eventually something bad will come knocking at the door of the Vale.   I expect they will see the error of not at least protecting the immediate entry to their lovely mountains.  Looks like those Southron Ambitions and coalition between the North, Vale and Riverlands didn't work out so well for anyone but the Vale.   

Agreed the Vale came out of the WOT5K very well.   Doesn't make their apathy toward the Riverlands any easier to swallow.    

Spoiler

I hope the entire BWB shows up to their stupid melee.  With a vengeance.

Spoiler

 

Gotta use those spoilers more often so I can remember how!  

[Ralphis Baratheon]

20 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

IIRC in the Wo5K didn't Dorne have 10k spears in both the Boneway and the Princes Pass? Indicating that their fighting strength is 20k, probably able to call upon another 10k in an emergency.

I'm not sure, do you remember what book it would have been where it was mention?

Also finding out how many spears the Dornish marshaled to fight in the Blackfyre Rebellion might be a good indicator of how many spears they can muster. Dorne was pretty invested in that war as their Princess was Daeron II's queen and her children were his heirs. I'm not sure if those numbers were ever released though.

[Adam Yozza]

2 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

I'm not sure, do you remember what book it would have been where it was mention?

Also finding out how many spears the Dornish marshaled to fight in the Blackfyre Rebellion might be a good indicator of how many spears they can muster. Dorne was pretty invested in that war as their Princess was Daeron II's queen and her children were his heirs. I'm not sure if those numbers were ever released though.

Not a clue. It could be Clash, Storm or Feast. Probably not Dance. Defo not Game of Thrones.

No, almost no numbers about the Blackfyre rebellion were ever released. For Dorne we have two figures to go off; 10k in RR and 50k in Daeron's conquest, which has been stated is an inflation.