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What if Aegon VI sailed earlier?


UFT

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lets say it becomes a war of six kings due to aegon landing right at the outset of COK. 

he lands in dorne (doing his best to avoid renly's monster army). how does this affect the timeline?

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well, for one, the martells and the dornish army would be taking part, since they held back during the canon. what would aegon's first moves after landing be? would he seek to make alliances with one of the other factions? i doubt the lannisters. between what he grew up being told by connington, and what oberyn would be demanding, i think one of his first targets would be to seal the south from the lannisters. if he avoids renly until stannis the mannis has him killed by magic, he could consider going to the tyrells. they would love any reasonable opportunity to try and wed margery to aegon. they have been desperate to bind their house to the throne, after their primary patrons in the targaryens were ousted in the rebellion. if he can convince them that his chances are good, they might consider swearing to him if he marries margery. stannis would have likely pulled his forces back to the gullet, along with the remnants of renly's army that switch to him, probably keeping most of the foot and cavalry at masseys hook while he commands from dragonstone and plans is strike at KL. the lannisters are still stretched along the southern riverlands, and robb has been handing them their asses. would aegon consider negotiating with the starks. that might depend on what he has been told of theem by connington, and what oberyn and doran think of that house.

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A- Doran won't join the war. He's too cautious to do so and Aegon's army is too small to grant him any guarantees
B- If Aegon reaches the Stormlands then he would be wiped away. If he reaches Dragonstone then he'll stand a chance against Stannis unless of course the red priestess ends up using voodoo against him. House Arryn wouldn't bulge, the Westerlands would wipe him too. 

His best chance is to land in the Riverlands. If by some miracle Aegon is able to halt the Lannister advance, rescue Edmure and who knows maybe trap Tywin at Harrenhal then the Starks-Tully will be in debt to him. Robb cant care less about who sits on the IT and will probably bend the knee at him. Brynden will follow and once Stannis kills Renly then I fancy the Tyrells taking Aegon's option too. At that point Doran would join the fray. 

Its ridiculous how a great general like Stannis didn't thought about that. Sure he had the claim but a king must earn the trust of his men. That's what Robert did. If he helped the Riverlands in its time of need then Robb + Brynden would probably fight for his cause. 

 

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i think its because stannis got so swayed by his new religion, and he over-emphanization of the throne being his by right and all should bend the knee as proper, that he felt he didnt have to go to the riverlands. he seemed so sure that everyone will believe him about joffrey not being robert's son, and that the laws of succession meant he inherited the throne, that they will just fall in line behind him. maybe something along the lines of having too much faith in the system?

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15 minutes ago, Graydon Hicks said:

i think its because stannis got so swayed by his new religion, and he over-emphanization of the throne being his by right and all should bend the knee as proper, that he felt he didnt have to go to the riverlands. he seemed so sure that everyone will believe him about joffrey not being robert's son, and that the laws of succession meant he inherited the throne, that they will just fall in line behind him. maybe something along the lines of having too much faith in the system?

Stannis expected everyone to bend the knee because he is Robert's heir. That's not how things work at least not for the Baratheons.

The IT (and a unified westeros) is, in itself, a Targeryan thing. It was created by a Targeryan for a Targeryan. Prior to that, there were 7 kingdoms, something many houses including the Starks were quite happy with. 

The Baratheons were merely LP of the smallest region of Westeros, descendents of some bastard and a disgraced former queen who was betrayed by its own people. They had no right to the IT. Its claim derived from merely being protectors of the realm. Robert went to battle against his own cousin because he believed Aerys lost it. He married a woman he never liked for the sake of the realm and when Balon rebelled and wiped out the Lannister fleet, he was at the forefront to put things into place again. That is what made him (and retained him as king).

The North was incredibly loyal to Stannis. Ned lost his life, Sansa ended up a hostage and Arya was lost, all because Ned insisted on Stannis claim. Meanwhile the Riverlands suffered the brunt of the lion's revenge. With Ned dead, both regions were being lead by a 15 year old who might be bright but he was so green that he pissed grass. God knows how much he needed his king at his side. Yet, Stannis preferred to settle scores with his younger brother. 

Stannis had a choice. He could either add his men to those of Robb, possibly offering the Northern army a lift to the Riverlands without the young wolf having to surrender everything to the Freys. Else he could commit kinslaying by using dark magic. After he made his decision he can't really blame the Northerners/Riverlands for not sticking to him. 

 

 

 

 

 

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53 minutes ago, devilish said:

The Baratheons were merely LP of the smallest region of Westeros

not the smallest, that honor goes to the iron isles, but yeah, they dont the wealth or population to be in the same league as the reach or westerlands.

 

54 minutes ago, devilish said:

The North was incredibly loyal to Stannis. Ned lost his life, Sansa ended up a hostage and Arya was lost, all because Ned insisted on Stannis claim.

its not that ned was loyal to stannis, but that he was trying to uphold the law of the realm, which meant that stannis was robert's legal heir as joffrey and his siblings were not roberts children. i dont think stannis and eddard were ever that close, but ned always tried to do the right thing, which meant declaring stannis as the true heir.

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18 minutes ago, Graydon Hicks said:

not the smallest, that honor goes to the iron isles, but yeah, they dont the wealth or population to be in the same league as the reach or westerlands.

 

its not that ned was loyal to stannis, but that he was trying to uphold the law of the realm, which meant that stannis was robert's legal heir as joffrey and his siblings were not roberts children. i dont think stannis and eddard were ever that close, but ned always tried to do the right thing, which meant declaring stannis as the true heir.

Ned knew the value of laws and that once someone crossed the rubicon there was no turning back. That's why he was pissed off at Robert when he rewarded the Lannisters for a hideous crime they committed and why he safeguarded Stannis claim to the throne. Aegon and Rhaenys werent just innocent children.

Ned only mistake was that of not appreciating what the Targeryan represented. They might have been arrogant pricks of the highest order but even in their weakest, the Targs represented order. That's why Rickard didn't called the banners when the Targs repeatedly insulted him by first kidnapping his daughter and then arresting his son and that's why the great Tywin Lannister stood idle despite the many insults he endured. Both houses could easily wipe out the crownlands if they wanted too but they didn't.

Once the claim to the throne became a popularity contest and it became ok to kill innocent people of noble blood just because they happen to be on the way, then Westeros descended into chaos. John A died, Robert B quickly followed, all houses aligned around their candidate and Westeros became a mess

 

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  • 1 month later...
On 4-9-2017 at 7:25 AM, UFT said:

lets say it becomes a war of six kings due to aegon landing right at the outset of COK. 

he lands in dorne (doing his best to avoid renly's monster army). how does this affect the timeline?

With Viserys dead, Doran and Oberyn would set up a marriage contract between Arianne and Aegon. Doran would keep this and Aegon secret though. Unaware of it all, Tyrion still sends Myrcella to Dorne. Best thing is if Aegon waits it out, and for Varys to plot in KL to make both the Lannisters and Baratheons hated. Aegon's biggest opportunity in the whole series to possibly succeed is at the moment he sailed in aDwD.

8 hours ago, UFT said:

aegon finds dany first, and they marry. thus bringing far more legitimacy to aegon's claim. how do things play out? 

What do you mean "first"? When is this? During this war of 6K? Before Dany marries Drogo? So, basically, Illyrio arranges a marriage between Dany and Aegon instead of Drogo?

 

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  • 1 month later...
On 11/3/2017 at 8:18 AM, sweetsunray said:

With Viserys dead, Doran and Oberyn would set up a marriage contract between Arianne and Aegon. Doran would keep this and Aegon secret though. Unaware of it all, Tyrion still sends Myrcella to Dorne. Best thing is if Aegon waits it out, and for Varys to plot in KL to make both the Lannisters and Baratheons hated. Aegon's biggest opportunity in the whole series to possibly succeed is at the moment he sailed in aDwD.

What do you mean "first"? When is this? During this war of 6K? Before Dany marries Drogo? So, basically, Illyrio arranges a marriage between Dany and Aegon instead of Drogo?

 

Or perhaps if Aegon finds Dany in CoK, alongside Barristan and Strong Belwas?

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On 04/09/2017 at 9:23 AM, devilish said:

A- Doran won't join the war. He's too cautious to do so and Aegon's army is too small to grant him any guarantees
B- If Aegon reaches the Stormlands then he would be wiped away. If he reaches Dragonstone then he'll stand a chance against Stannis unless of course the red priestess ends up using voodoo against him. House Arryn wouldn't bulge, the Westerlands would wipe him too. 

His best chance is to land in the Riverlands. If by some miracle Aegon is able to halt the Lannister advance, rescue Edmure and who knows maybe trap Tywin at Harrenhal then the Starks-Tully will be in debt to him. Robb cant care less about who sits on the IT and will probably bend the knee at him. Brynden will follow and once Stannis kills Renly then I fancy the Tyrells taking Aegon's option too. At that point Doran would join the fray. 

Its ridiculous how a great general like Stannis didn't thought about that. Sure he had the claim but a king must earn the trust of his men. That's what Robert did. If he helped the Riverlands in its time of need then Robb + Brynden would probably fight for his cause. 

 

I actually disagree with a fair bit of this.

A) I actually think he would at that point. Maybe not immediately, since this would be a completely unexpected curveball to his plans, but I think he'd scope it out and decide to throw in with Aegon, who he actually has a blood relation to (supposedly). So I think if Aegon landed in Dorne at the outset of the Wo5K, Doran would meet with him, decide if he's legit and then, IMO, decide to pledge support to him. But even if he didn't, the rest of Dorne probably would. Led, most likely, by the Yronwood's.

You say he's too cautious; I say we don't know that. He was cautious in canon but we have no idea what he would do if a Targ showed up with a badass army. Personally, while I think Doran is cautious, I believe he is playing a long game, waiting for the best moment. Aegon/Dany arriving early would be the best moment.

B.) Stannis' army in the Stormlands is nearly all cavalry; about 16,500 of it with a max of 4.5k foot. Aegon's army is the 10k strong Golden Company, one of the most professional and disciplined armies in the world. Even alone, I think they'd have a good chance. But if Dorne does join (with or without Doran's consent) then you can add 10-15k Dornish spears to the mix. The Westerlands might be more difficult to contend with because they have more foot, but it's also less professional than Stannis' army. So again, even the GC on it's own would stand a chance against the West. But again, if you add Dorne into the mix then I don't think Tywin would stand a chance, especially not when his attention is split between the North and the South.

In any case, the Tyrell's would likely jump to Aegon rather than Joffrey once Renly died, so whether or not Dorne joins is moot at that point.

I'd say his best chance is either to gun straight for Dragonstone either a) take them off guard or b.) hit Dragonstone once Stannis sails for SE. Alternatively he could land in Dorne or the southern Stormlands.

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Hrm...much to ponder in this scenario.    You have to take into consideration that if Aegon goes to Dorne with his 20,000 Golden Company, Doran has an army 70,000 strong to make their mark in the war.   However, Doran being the careful plotter that he is, I would expect he would demand a marriage alliance with Arienne before he does anything.    He takes counsel with Jon Con and Aegon about Dany and insists Dany must marry Quentyn thereby fulfilling the previous contracts and cementing his ultimate plan to gain the throne in the next generation.  However, there is no one in Aegon's force who actually can speak for Dany, but I suppose if Aegon is good enough to convince Doran of his superior claim he could agree to force a marriage?   Considering the forces left to each kingdom at the beginning of the WOT5K, I'm not convinced 70,000 is a good enough number to go up against the superior forces of the Lannisters or Tyrells.   I figure if Aegon marries Arienne the Tyrells wouldn't join forces since all they want is a queen or king.   There is nothing for them so they are most likely to join the Lannisters (if Renly is scared off because Dorne becomes a player).   Stannis, Robb and/or Balon won't support Dorne.   I'm thinking Renly is smarter than his original actions would indicate and his forces would support the Lannisters as well.   Leaves Stannis with virtually no support and Robb with the North.   Whomever steps in to help the Riverlands will have their support against the Lannisters, but they don't have much military strength to offer following Tywin's scouring.  I'm with Doran.   Wait it out and let the others slowly decimate each other to emerge as the superior force afterward.    

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2 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Hrm...much to ponder in this scenario.    You have to take into consideration that if Aegon goes to Dorne with his 20,000 Golden Company, Doran has an army 70,000 strong to make their mark in the war. 

Whoa, whoa, whoa what?. Sorry dude, but the second I saw those numbers I couldn't really pay attention to the rest of your post. No offense to you or nothing.

It's just: the GC doesn't have 20k. It has 10k.

And Dorne doesn't have 70k! It has a max of 50 and even that is very likely to be far exaggerated. 20-30 thousand seems much more likely.

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On 9/3/2017 at 10:25 PM, UFT said:

lets say it becomes a war of six kings due to aegon landing right at the outset of COK. 

he lands in dorne (doing his best to avoid renly's monster army). how does this affect the timeline?

something would happen to take him back to essos so the story could progress as written 

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1 hour ago, Adam Yozza said:

Whoa, whoa, whoa what?. Sorry dude, but the second I saw those numbers I couldn't really pay attention to the rest of your post. No offense to you or nothing.

It's just: the GC doesn't have 20k. It has 10k.

And Dorne doesn't have 70k! It has a max of 50 and even that is very likely to be far exaggerated. 20-30 thousand seems much more likely.

20,000 + 50,000 = 70,000.   It's OK Man.   Breathe.   Apologies if I've over estimated the Golden Company numbers.   Now go back and read the post.   

Dorne hasn't participated in anything.   Their force, regardless of size,  is largely fresh and intact.   We have no way of really knowing how large the Dornish force is so I chose to err on the side of the Wiki.  

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On Monday, September 04, 2017 at 9:23 AM, devilish said:

 

His best chance is to land in the Riverlands. If by some miracle Aegon is able to halt the Lannister advance, rescue Edmure and who knows maybe trap Tywin at Harrenhal then the Starks-Tully will be in debt to him. Robb cant care less about who sits on the IT and will probably bend the knee at him. Brynden will follow and once Stannis kills Renly then I fancy the Tyrells taking Aegon's option too. At that point Doran would join the fray. 

Its ridiculous how a great general like Stannis didn't thought about that. Sure he had the claim but a king must earn the trust of his men. That's what Robert did. If he helped the Riverlands in its time of need then Robb + Brynden would probably fight for his cause. 

 

Probably because he is a great general!

A. How does he get to the Riverlands in the first place? 

B. What does he do with his 5k army once he lands?  Either the Riverlands have been conquered by the Lannisters and has too late or they have been freed by Robb and hes too late.

Could have landed in White Harbour at the start of the war Robb would have bent the knee, and expected the Vale to join him, but Riverlands would have been conquered before he set sail

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