Battle of Fire and Danny`s march West, and Beyond

[Makk]

I think the first thing you need look at when making this prediction is what is going to happen when Vic has the horn blown. I am convinced he is going to do it and something fairly serious is going to happen. Just the way the preview chapter cuts off at that point and how perfectly things were going up until then. And the build up to it with Moqorro and the Dusky woman and even going back to the Kingsmoot and why Euron even bothered to send Vic there in the first place. It's a fairly serious twist that will be coming imo.

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 9/6/2017 at 0:17 AM, Dukhasinov said:

Maybe the Dothraki have never seen anything like a NORTHERN winter, but much of the Dothraki Sea shares a latitude with the Riverlands, which is now seeing snow. Dorne, it is not. What makes you think the Dothraki don`t know anything about logistics? And how do you figure they don`t have arrowmakers and smiths? They have arrows and arakhs, don`t they? If we`re talking about their warfare in Essos, their whole society is their supply line. While the screamers are out raiding, their wives are fletching arrows, tanning hides, smoking meat, striking and setting up camp. Their young sons are herding the spare horses and livestock. Their old men are making saddles and swords. They carry their whole lives with them on carts and pack animals. What makes you think they`re not smart enough to load down a few hundred mules with extra quivers? Keeping supplied with ammunition on a long campaign won`t be a new problem for them. If we`re talking about the ones in Danny`s army, they will have the support of same logistics system that will keep the rest of her army supplied (likely by skilled freedmen from Volantis). Yes, keeping their horses fed will be an issue, but it`s one that they`re used to dealing with. Yes, horses have to stop and eat, just like soldiers do. Westerosi knights` horses have to rest and eat, to, and they need a lot more food and are far pickier about what they can eat. Nomadic hordes ranged through Europe on several occasions (Avars, Magyars, Huns), and they managed to keep their horses fed in that most un-steppelike environment, probably by feeding them captured grain. And while armor certainly helps against arrows, it`s not a force-field. The Romans learned that at Carhae. And I`ll concede that a wealthy knight`s suit of plate is superior to a legionary`s lorica, the average levied puke with a bill-hook is not that well protected.

   Yes, Arsuf is a blueprint for beating the Dothraki. All the Westerosi have to do is keep their back to the sea for the entire war. Randyl Tarly needs to study the Jaxartes if he wants to handle the Dothraki. Incidentally, Arsuf is also a pretty good model for marching Danny`s army down the Demon Road; March in the morning and at dusk, rest during the heat of the day, hug the coast, etc. Yes, it`s a lot longer. Long marches suck. I get it. It sucked for Xenophon, to. It sucked for Alexander. But it`s doable.

 

But you`re probably right that it would be smarter in the long run for Danny to not bring them, given how badly they`ll fuck up her peace. But in the short run, she needs cavalry badly.

There is three feet of snow in KL at this point. The typical northern winter is probably what we will see down south. Other than that, the author literally states that Essos isn't as affected by Winter as Westeros because of the geography, so I am gonna stick with his word.

How do we know about the Dothraki lacking logistics? Well the book states they derive their supplies from raiding outlying areas and other khalasars. That means they have no supply train. At best they have a walking village. There are captured blacksmiths and fletchers but the skilled artisans are kept at Vaes Dothrak. And yes putting areas together is fairly difficult. After all fletcher was a real occupation and English campaigns took the resources of most of the country to put together. Drogo's khalasar would far outstrip its ability to produce areas in merely a battle or two.

Westeros has home field advantage and fortifications. Those are huge, huge, huge advantages. The dothraki will be despised and attacked at every turn. The westerosi can feed their horses grain while the Dothraki will have to either try to attack holdfasts for it or let them graze for hours. Volantis is 1000 miles away from Westeros How is she going to keep a reliable supply line when they can't even get the GC across the narrow sea in one piece? As soon as the nomadic hordes (or the mongols for that matter) got into areas with forests and mountains they were pretty much bogged down and suffered huge casualties. The average levy we see in Westeros has a pike, steel chainmail, and a helm, better armor than the milites had. Go back and read any description of the armies we see. You'll see exactly two groups who are shittily armed: Tywin's purposely weak vanguard (which still had knights and armored men) and a small portion of the Frey force sent north to die.  Carrhae would work if Dany had heavy cavalry to prevent archers and skirmishers from being able to drive off the light cavalry. She does not unless she brings over the two mercenary companies she has, one of whom has betrayed her and the other which is led by Daario (who likely will be left behind).

It will take Dany years to get from Mereen to Westeros if she's marching all the way to the narrow sea. The march from Arsuf was maybe 100 miles, the safe harbors, or enough ships to continually supply her. She doesn't have the ships as you know. If she thinks she can get the min volantis, well they just sent all their ships to westeros or mereen, so she'd have them already. And once again her forces are going to desert and die if they go down the demon road. People Dany think are smart agree. The commanders don't need to have their backs to the sea. Any natural barrier like a river or mountains will serve as the same basic safeguard.

[Dukhasinov]

9 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

There is three feet of snow in KL at this point. The typical northern winter is probably what we will see down south. Other than that, the author literally states that Essos isn't as affected by Winter as Westeros because of the geography, so I am gonna stick with his word.

How do we know about the Dothraki lacking logistics? Well the book states they derive their supplies from raiding outlying areas and other khalasars. That means they have no supply train. At best they have a walking village. There are captured blacksmiths and fletchers but the skilled artisans are kept at Vaes Dothrak. And yes putting areas together is fairly difficult. After all fletcher was a real occupation and English campaigns took the resources of most of the country to put together. Drogo's khalasar would far outstrip its ability to produce areas in merely a battle or two.

Westeros has home field advantage and fortifications. Those are huge, huge, huge advantages. The dothraki will be despised and attacked at every turn. The westerosi can feed their horses grain while the Dothraki will have to either try to attack holdfasts for it or let them graze for hours. Volantis is 1000 miles away from Westeros How is she going to keep a reliable supply line when they can't even get the GC across the narrow sea in one piece? As soon as the nomadic hordes (or the mongols for that matter) got into areas with forests and mountains they were pretty much bogged down and suffered huge casualties. The average levy we see in Westeros has a pike, steel chainmail, and a helm, better armor than the milites had. Go back and read any description of the armies we see. You'll see exactly two groups who are shittily armed: Tywin's purposely weak vanguard (which still had knights and armored men) and a small portion of the Frey force sent north to die.  Carrhae would work if Dany had heavy cavalry to prevent archers and skirmishers from being able to drive off the light cavalry. She does not unless she brings over the two mercenary companies she has, one of whom has betrayed her and the other which is led by Daario (who likely will be left behind).

It will take Dany years to get from Mereen to Westeros if she's marching all the way to the narrow sea. The march from Arsuf was maybe 100 miles, the safe harbors, or enough ships to continually supply her. She doesn't have the ships as you know. If she thinks she can get the min volantis, well they just sent all their ships to westeros or mereen, so she'd have them already. And once again her forces are going to desert and die if they go down the demon road. People Dany think are smart agree. The commanders don't need to have their backs to the sea. Any natural barrier like a river or mountains will serve as the same basic safeguard.

The idea of a supply train is mostly a thing of resource-intensive modern warfare. Ancient armies didn`t need a constant flow of ammo, fuel, lubricants, spare parts, and batteries. Food and most raw materials could be looted from the surrounding countryside. That`s how Hannibal`s army stayed in Italy for 14 years while the Romans controlled the sea. Westerosi armies are shown to not have much in the way of a log train. Gregor Clegane and Roose Bolton both supply their met at Harenhal by foraging.

There really is no easy way for Danny`s army to get to Westeros unless Martin waves a magic wand the way the show did. She has something like 50,000 men now, not counting the several tens of thousands of men and horses she`s likely to bring back with her to Meereen. There is no way, even with the Iron Fleet and the Yunkish and Volantene prizes, she`ll have enough hulls to make the trip entirely by sea. I`ll throw you a huge bone and assume that Danny comes back to Meereen without an army at her back. That`s still 50,000ish men, and MAYBE 300 ships, the vast majority of which are rowed galleys. Slaver`s Bay is also noticeably sparse on trees, so building hundreds more ships is not feasible. Yes, smart men are telling her that the Demon Road is dangerous, but we`ve seen Victarion lose half of his fleet in what might be the longest sea voyage in the world`s history, and the Golden Company scattered by storms just crossing the narrow sea. So, it seems to be up in the air as to which route is more dangerous. Yes, it`s hard to find water to drink in the desert. But you know a place that has even less drinking water? The ocean. They would have to take on fresh water DAILY. Most of her fleet being galleys, she would also have to beech her fleet every night to rest. Galleys aren`t known for their roomy berthing space.

   Besides a sea voyage or a march down the Demon Road, her only choice is to strike north into the Dothraki Sea, then west to Pentos. That would, of course, require her to divide her army from her fleet. And unlike the uncertain and poorly defined dangers of the Demon Road, that route has the very real danger of roving Khalasars that might not take kindly to their tresspass. Also, unlike the Demon Road, the Dothraki Sea has no cities along the way that can be extorted for supplies. The march to Volantis is about 1500 miles. Mantarys sits pretty neatly at the halfway point, like a perfectly places gas station. Upon reaching Volantis, their fresh water problem is over if they march north up the Rhoyne and then strike west for Pentos.

   So, how do you think Danny`s Achaemanid-scale horde is going to reach Westeros, mister contrary-pants?

[Dukhasinov]

21 hours ago, Makk said:

I think the first thing you need look at when making this prediction is what is going to happen when Vic has the horn blown. I am convinced he is going to do it and something fairly serious is going to happen. Just the way the preview chapter cuts off at that point and how perfectly things were going up until then. And the build up to it with Moqorro and the Dusky woman and even going back to the Kingsmoot and why Euron even bothered to send Vic there in the first place. It's a fairly serious twist that will be coming imo.

I didn`t even try to predict that. That`s entirely up in the air. Maybe it will make the dragons go berserk and burn the Iron Victory? It`s really anyone`s guess.