Tyrion1991

Will any Houses support Dany?

55 posts in this topic

Okay bit of a disclaimer here. Technically speaking Dany and Aegon are on the same side. We all assume that he will marry Arriane and Dany will attack him for cutting her out of the succession. But it strictly speaking has not happened. So you could argue that Dorne is still on Danys side. Although it feels like such a GRRM thing for the faction that genuinely was trying to help Viserys and her get the throne ends up on the wrong end of her wrath. However, its so obviously going to happen that I am just going to assume that support for Aegon means that faction is against Daenerys. 

 

Which, really limits the number of Houses which could support Dany.

* Starks - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter

* Tullys - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter

* Arryns - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter. Also Littlefinger hates Varys and his pro Targ plotting. 

* Baratheons - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter

* Lannisters - The enemy

* Tyrell - Married to the enemy

* Martell - Soon to be married to the other enemy.

* Greyjoy - Euron 

 

However I would be really surprised if GRRM had nobody join Danys faction from inside Westeros. I mean, you cant really have another Dance with Dragons if you don't have a Black faction to face the Greens?

Of the minor houses:

* Everyone in the North, Vale and Riverlands - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter. Jorah doesn't count.

* Dornish - Given the stress on Dornish nationalism I can't see any of them siding with an outsider against Martel.

* Westerlands - Since GRRM has barely mentioned them I assume they are unimportant and Tywin broke them long ago.

* Reach: This faction disintegrating has long been hinted at. JonCon suggests that Mace Tyrell will face defections from his bannermen. Optimistic? Maybe. But we know quite a bit about Tarly and Hightowers. Plus they are from a region that supported the Mad King. However, Randyl Tarly hates women, shown by his interactions with Brienne; so he won't like Dany. House Hightower also backed the Greens during the Dance. Plus given the immediacy of the Ironborn threat and Dany being so far away, Aegon is in a more immediate position to help them and win their support if he has ships.

* Okay she does have Victarion and his 100 ships helping her. But I cannot see Vic winning over Euron so that probably all the support she will get. 

This quite literally leaves nobody as a potential ally to Daenerys. I know some people seem to think that, "that's why she has the Unsullied and is probably going to get the Dothraki; shes too powerful as it is". However I would be surprised since the story is about Westeros and her relationship with its Houses is too important to be sidelined like that. Plus, all of those Essos armies are significantly smaller than those fielded by the Great Houses of Westeros. I would be very surprised to see her bring more than, say 20,000 Dothraki with her. On Essos, yes, she will have the full insane Genghis Khan horde but the sea means she is limited in what she can bring over. Plus the dragons are small and I can't see GRRM giving her full size dragons because they would be too powerful and people would just give up rather than fight her. So in Westeros she won't actually be that much more powerful than what Aegon brought with him.  The Lannisters have 60,000 men. That's significantly more than her 8000 Unsullied and the other Essosi units she has are unreliable. 

Also, Daenerys isn't a foreign ruler. She isn't Empress of New Valyria or anything like that. Her rule is very much a personal thing which extends out from her followers. Basically GRRM has not had her build a nation in Essos because he has an eye towards when she becomes Queen of Westeros and will have to do all of that stuff like ally and treat with the Great Houses. So its actually a very important part of her character that she has to deal with these people. Which has to involve people joining her at some point. I mean GRRM is not going to have Dany land with an army capable of conquering Westeros without any support from the Great Houses. She will have to win some of them over, otherwise she would just steamroller everyone. 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That anyone would openly contest her after seeing her dragons blows my mind.  The devastation those things could do when she gets to Westeros is too great to risk fighting for anyone else.  And that's before you consider the Dothraki and Unsullied.  This is partly why I am not a huge fan of her story and really hope the dragonbinder is real.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can see a lot of minor families siding with the Targaryens. Especially when the Great Houses have proven to be uneffective ruling the realm. Oh, and apart that they are falling apart. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not everyone who fought for the rebels in the Rebellion "hate" the Mad King's Daughter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First, the idea that "hate Mad Kings daughter" is going to be everyone's motivation for choosing sides seems pretty silly when the alternative is also of Aerys's line.

Of course a lot of people will just stay out of the war rather than choose between them, but for anyone who does want to get involved, that's not going to be the relevant factor in choosing.

As for the Reach, they probably won't be a single faction in the first place when Dany arrives. Whoever JonConn's "friends" are, it can't possibly be the Tyrells, because they're not going to fight to take Margy off the throne. So, someone is going to rebel against the Tyrells long before Dany even arrives, and I don't think it'll all be over in a fortnight. And, even if it implausibly is, whoever ends up on the seat will not be able to raise all the armies of the Reach in unison any time soon (especially after the Reach failed to defend Oldtown). So, Dany is probably going to have to appeal to the Reach house by house—and most of the people fighting for her will end up being former Lannister allies, because the ones who were willing to betray the Lannisters are now on Aegon's side.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

* Starks - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter

* Tullys - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter

* Arryns - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter. Also Littlefinger hates Varys and his pro Targ plotting.

I wouldn't rule these three out. All of them have been heavily worn down to the point where there are no members left who actually participated in Robert's Rebellion. Edmure Tully could easily decide to side with Dany if circumstances make her look like the best bet at the time. Robert Arryn is a little boy and will side with whoever his guardians at the time decide he should side with. (And whatever's going on between Littlefinger and Varys, Varys is pro-Aegon, not pro-Dany.) The Starks are currently entirely powerless, but if one announces him/herself and gets enough support to make a difference, they'll be in pretty much the same position as Edmure. They might be wary about Dany because of what they've heard about her father, but there's no actual personal enmity there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Lady Lia said:

I wouldn't rule these three out. All of them have been heavily worn down to the point where there are no members left who actually participated in Robert's Rebellion. Edmure Tully could easily decide to side with Dany if circumstances make her look like the best bet at the time. Robert Arryn is a little boy and will side with whoever his guardians at the time decide he should side with. (And whatever's going on between Littlefinger and Varys, Varys is pro-Aegon, not pro-Dany.) The Starks are currently entirely powerless, but if one announces him/herself and gets enough support to make a difference, they'll be in pretty much the same position as Edmure. They might be wary about Dany because of what they've heard about her father, but there's no actual personal enmity there.

A Stark would, or should, need a lot of convincing to go with Daenerys. Sure, there's nothing personal between them and Daenerys. On the other hand, Rhaegar abducted and raped Lyanna, Aerys did what he did to Rickard and Brandon, and wanted Ned's head. That's a lot of bad blood between them.

Plus, right now, anyways, any Stark would likely need to deal with Stannis first. It's not clear what Stannis would do if faced with fAegon and Daenerys in Westeros and claiming the Iron Throne as theirs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that Yronwoods and Daynes might join Dany . The Tullys and the Riverlands might be forced into joining her.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the Tyrells (Garlan and Willas) will after Mace is crushed by Aegon (well Connington).

I also believe most of Dorne will as well. Arrianne has been sent to determine if Aegon is real or not. She will realise he is a fake and this will be her test, those ones GRRM loves thrusting on his characters. Will she tell her father a lie (dragon) to gain the marriage, power and status she has always dreamed of, or tell the truth (war)? I think she will pass her test and tell the truth.

But some of Dorne will likely be with Aegon. I don't think Elia is a pointless character. I think she is going to seduce Aegon (who wrongly thinks she has the same name as his mother) and some of Dorne (like the Yronwoods when they hear of Quentyn) will want decisive action and rally behind her.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Lucius Lovejoy said:

That anyone would openly contest her after seeing her dragons blows my mind.  The devastation those things could do when she gets to Westeros is too great to risk fighting for anyone else.  And that's before you consider the Dothraki and Unsullied.  This is partly why I am not a huge fan of her story and really hope the dragonbinder is real.

They are still young and mostly uncontrollable. None of them have been proven in war and the potential threat (not only dragons but also barbarians and foreigners) is something that is likely to galvanise opponents.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Where ever she lands will side with her from a self preservation point, from there she will pick up momentum; a couple of battles later and she will have whole regions on her side

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Kytheros said:

A Stark would, or should, need a lot of convincing to go with Daenerys. Sure, there's nothing personal between them and Daenerys. On the other hand, Rhaegar abducted and raped Lyanna,

… and therefore they should support Rhaegar's son over Rhaegar's sister?

Obviously as long as Stannis is still around, saving the North from the Boltons, and not making any unreasonable demands in return, a Stark would choose him over either Targaryen, but once that's no longer true, any argument against Dany is just as good an argument for Dany.

What would make the decision for the Starks, like most other houses, is what they get in return. If, say, Dany accepts the North's independence in exchange for an alliance, while Aegon declares the Starks traitors for not bending the knee, they'd obviously go with Dany (unless she obviously had no chance of winning, of course). Switch the promises, same deal.

If nobody promises or threatens anything, the smartest thing to do is to stay neutral so you can negotiate with whoever wins without having been on the wrong side. That might be a little tricky if you're, say, the Blackmonts, and your liege is heavily invested in the war, or the Mertyns and you're surrounded by Aegon's forges on all sides, but for the Starks it ought to be easy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

* Starks - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter

* Tullys - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter

* Arryns - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter. Also Littlefinger hates Varys and his pro Targ plotting. 

* Baratheons - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter

* Lannisters - The enemy

* Tyrell - Married to the enemy

* Martell - Soon to be married to the other enemy.

* Greyjoy - Euron

1

I think we need to remember that most of these houses are no longer represented by the 'original' rebels. Will the Stark children make the same choices their parents made? I think that's highly unlikely.

  • Sansa is being 'groomed' by the best political manipulator in Westeros and her choices will be informed by that.
  • Jon is... dead/wight/warged in Ghost and his decisions are probably irrelevant to the Starks anyway.
  • Bran is in a tree and by the time Daenerys arrives in Westeros will probably know the 'truth' about R+L (whatever that is).
  • Rickon is closer to a wildling than a Stark by the time Daenerys lands and his choices are anybody's guess.
  • Edmure Tully will make whatever choice he needs to make to preserve his house and child - and the most likely scenario here is he'll side with Dany in the hope that this will allow him to keep his family but at the same time, get revenge on the Freys and Lannisters.
  • Jon Arryn will do whatever Littlefinger or Sansa tell him to do (depending on whether Littlefinger is alive when Daenerys lands). If Littlefinger is still alive, I would think he'd want to back Daenerys (since Aegon has VArys in his camp). If Sansa then there's a slim chance the Vale might back Aegon but Daenerys has DRAGONS so....
  • It seems highly likely that the Baratheons will be 'gone' by the time Daenerys reaches Westeros so I'm not sure how the Stormlands will swing.
  • The Lannisters always bet on the Lannisters of course :D
  • The Tyrells will choose based on how much Cersei has F#$%ed-up their alliance. If Cersei keeps on being Cersei, and if Margery dies, they may turn against the Lannisters. Whether they'll go with Aegon or Daenerys is anyone's guess (the reach - especially Tyrells and Tarlys - were staunch Targaryn allies in the rebellion).
  • The Martells are anyone's guess. Doran is a long-term strategist and an accomplished manipulator and therefore, his agenda may be more complicated.
  • Greyjoys are going to be interesting... Euron may not enjoy the same 'approval ratings' he had when he was first crowned so this remains to be seen whether the Greyjoys will remain united under Euron (and with them the rest of the Iron Islands) or not.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Kytheros said:

A Stark would, or should, need a lot of convincing to go with Daenerys. Sure, there's nothing personal between them and Daenerys. On the other hand, Rhaegar abducted and raped Lyanna, Aerys did what he did to Rickard and Brandon, and wanted Ned's head. That's a lot of bad blood between them.

But it's old bad blood. The Targaryens didn't do anything to anyone the current Starks actually knew. Aerys is pretty much a storybook villain to them. The Lannisters on the other hand have very directly and personally earned their enmity, so if circumstances fall out such that siding with Dany is their best shot at revenge and/or regaining their status, I'm pretty sure they'd go for it.

(And, as others have noted, Aegon's no better than Dany from a we-hate-Targaryens perspective.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Lady Lia said:

But it's old bad blood. The Targaryens didn't do anything to anyone the current Starks actually knew. Aerys is pretty much a storybook villain to them. The Lannisters on the other hand have very directly and personally earned their enmity, so if circumstances fall out such that siding with Dany is their best shot at revenge and/or regaining their status, I'm pretty sure they'd go for it.

 

Exactly! Thank you for articulating that so well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Lady Lia said:

But it's old bad blood. The Targaryens didn't do anything to anyone the current Starks actually knew. Aerys is pretty much a storybook villain to them. The Lannisters on the other hand have very directly and personally earned their enmity, so if circumstances fall out such that siding with Dany is their best shot at revenge and/or regaining their status, I'm pretty sure they'd go for it.

(And, as others have noted, Aegon's no better than Dany from a we-hate-Targaryens perspective.)

It's not that old. It's their grandfather, uncle, and aunt. They know the stories - they'd have known lots of people who fought in Robert's Rebellion. Sure, their hate for the Lannisters is fresher and more immediate, but that doesn't mean they suddenly hate the Targaryens any less or have forgotten or forgiven what the Targaryens did. The North Remembers actually means something.

And again, for the time being, any Stark would need to figure out a deal with Stannis before they could pick between fAegon and Daenerys. It's not clear which way Stannis would go in such a scenario.

Plus, it's quite likely that like Stannis, the Starks would be looking more to the North and Beyond the Wall than the South for the foreseeable future. Winter has come. An invasion of the North from the South would be ... wildly impractical, at best.

It's far more likely, IMO, that a Stark would let fAegon, Daenerys, and Lannisters fight and kill each other off. And then maybe move to attack the presumably weakened victor, depending on who won, but maybe ignore them or consider diplomatic offers. If the Lannisters won, it'd be war at a time of the Stark's choosing, but fAegon could probably be ignored, and a victorious Daenerys would probably get a diplomatic approach listened to, on account of having dragons.

 

 

At any rate, I'm not saying the Starks would never support fAegon or Daenerys under any conditions, but that a Stark would need a lot of convincing before they would support a Targaryen again. Although, Daenerys with dragons seems more likely than fAegon with elephants.

Also, again, for the foreseeable future, whatever the Starks do is likely to be connected to what Stannis does. And it's hugely unclear what Stannis would do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some Houses might back her because all other options are spent, some out of opportunity to rise higher. But mostly they will do it out of fear, because she has a big black dragon. She will not get loyalty, but people who back her for their own survival. These won't like her at all, but that's what she will get.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the Stormlands is already being set to join Aegon. Griffons Roost and everything.

The other rebellion factions:

- The North  is a self contained story at this point. Probably only involved in South when Long Night comes.

- Timing is important. Daenerys is too far away for Littlefinger to declare for Dany. But Aegon is an immediate threat to the Lannisters. Varys winning is not what LF wants. So LF can either do nothing and let Aegon win; or he sends out the Vale to fight Aegon. 

- If Sansa kills LF she has no reason to side with Aegon. The Targaryens murdered her uncle, aunt and grand father. Plus the situation in the north could make her moving to help Jon an option.

 

- So that leaves the Riverlords. But these are geographically close to Aegon. Timing would push them to him.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The North will not back any targs fake or real.  If the Starks regain the North they will remain their own kingdom, or be forced to follow Stannis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Many would flock to her banner simply because they are tired of the problems caused by the Starks and their war against the Lannisters.  Keep in mind that the realm was prosperous under Aerys Targaryen.  The great majority of the nobles would have tolerated Aerys if Jon Arryn had not called a rebellion and then he had to bribe the Tullys to join in.  Nobody really cared enough about the executions of Rickard and his idiot son to start a war except Jon Arryn. 

I think most houses would support Dany's campaign to reclaim the throne.  Martell, Greyjoy, Tyrells, Redwyne, etc.  The exceptions will be the Lannisters, Arryns, Tullys, Baratheons, and Starks.  But thankfully the great Petyr Baelish saw to it that most of those families are nearly extinct.  Hopefully, every Lannister, Arryn, Baratheon, Tully, and Stark will be dead when Dany makes her way to Westeros. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now