Tyrion1991

Will any Houses support Dany?

55 posts in this topic

On 06/09/2017 at 4:53 PM, Widowmaker 811 said:

Many would flock to her banner simply because they are tired of the problems caused by the Starks and their war against the Lannisters.  Keep in mind that the realm was prosperous under Aerys Targaryen.  The great majority of the nobles would have tolerated Aerys if Jon Arryn had not called a rebellion and then he had to bribe the Tullys to join in.  Nobody really cared enough about the executions of Rickard and his idiot son to start a war except Jon Arryn. 

I think most houses would support Dany's campaign to reclaim the throne.  Martell, Greyjoy, Tyrells, Redwyne, etc.  The exceptions will be the Lannisters, Arryns, Tullys, Baratheons, and Starks.  But thankfully the great Petyr Baelish saw to it that most of those families are nearly extinct.  Hopefully, every Lannister, Arryn, Baratheon, Tully, and Stark will be dead when Dany makes her way to Westeros. 

 

At the time maybe. But there have been over a decade of myth to cement people's attitudes that the Targaryens were mad and that the Mad Kings Daughter should not be supported. 

 

Mace Tyrell tells us pretty clearly that Dany is "as mad as her father". I think this is meant to speak for the majority of Westerosi nobles. Whilst Maester Pycelle makes reference to the atrocities committed by her in Slavers Bay. In other words, people will get a very one sided perception of Dany since only the bad stuff seems to be filtering through. Tyrion notices this in Volantis where it's said she bathes in blood etc etc. This seems to be setting up, like in the show, that Daenerys reputation will be so bad that people will basically view her the same as Sauron. You don't see people in Westeros talking about her as this compassionate beautiful Queen who freed all the slaves and wants to right all the wrongs in the world.  This feels like setup.

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We already having a ruling family, the Baratheons.  Robert overthrew the past dynasty, hes dead and now Stannis is the King, and Shireen is the heir.

 

Shes a child from Essos that breaks everything she touches. Right now the country already has King and a Queen. If the Tyrell family manages to bring peace, stability and prosperity to the 7k, I doubt the country would want to go through another bloody civil war just for her. The Targaryens left a bad taste in country mouth's for the last century.

 

Now we have Aegon in the picture, do see anyone else wanting to die for another Targaryen?

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On 9/5/2017 at 10:34 PM, falcotron said:

First, the idea that "hate Mad Kings daughter" is going to be everyone's motivation for choosing sides seems pretty silly when the alternative is also of Aerys's line.

Of course a lot of people will just stay out of the war rather than choose between them, but for anyone who does want to get involved, that's not going to be the relevant factor in choosing.

As for the Reach, they probably won't be a single faction in the first place when Dany arrives. Whoever JonConn's "friends" are, it can't possibly be the Tyrells, because they're not going to fight to take Margy off the throne. So, someone is going to rebel against the Tyrells long before Dany even arrives, and I don't think it'll all be over in a fortnight. And, even if it implausibly is, whoever ends up on the seat will not be able to raise all the armies of the Reach in unison any time soon (especially after the Reach failed to defend Oldtown). So, Dany is probably going to have to appeal to the Reach house by house—and most of the people fighting for her will end up being former Lannister allies, because the ones who were willing to betray the Lannisters are now on Aegon's side.

We already having a ruling family, and they are the Baratheons. The country wants a peaceful resolution for current ongoing civil war. Everyone has been effected to various degrees, some more than others, they witnessed what happened and what further else can happen. The smart ones would want to stay out.

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3 hours ago, StraightFromAsshai said:

We already having a ruling family, the Baratheons.  Robert overthrew the past dynasty, hes dead and now Stannis is the King, and Shireen is the heir.

 

Shes a child from Essos that breaks everything she touches. Right now the country already has King and a Queen. If the Tyrell family manages to bring peace, stability and prosperity to the 7k, I doubt the country would want to go through another bloody civil war just for her. The Targaryens left a bad taste in country mouth's for the last century.

 

Now we have Aegon in the picture, do see anyone else wanting to die for another Targaryen?

 

Nobody wants Stannis as King in the books. The North simply tolerates him. The South ignores him. 

 

Not really relevant what Dany is or isn't actually doing. What matters is what the Lords think of her. I agree it will be universally negative; but I think the point is that they will have a very warped and inaccurate image of Dany.

 

The Lannister Tyrell alliance has virtually shattered. Tyrell or another Reach house could become Kingmaker for Aegon. Peace does not exist because of Cersei.

 

Technically the Civil War never ended. Greyjoy and Stannis were still fighting. The North and Riverlands ripe for rebellion. Arryn and Martel ready to pounce. There was going to be a second round without Aegon or Dany.

 

Aegon is Rhaegars son. Judging by what Varys and JonCon say there is this view that Rhaegar was the good Targ and would have been a good King. As such his son miraculously returning makes for a good story. 

 

Dany is the Mad Kings Daughter. 

 

This is is a huge difference.

 

So people will side with Aegon. The question is who would side with Dany. It would be odd for GRRM to have no houses declare for Dany and all of them for Aegon. Especially since Dany has the smallest army.

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1 hour ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

Nobody wants Stannis as King in the books. The North simply tolerates him. The South ignores him. 

 

Not really relevant what Dany is or isn't actually doing. What matters is what the Lords think of her. I agree it will be universally negative; but I think the point is that they will have a very warped and inaccurate image of Dany.

 

The Lannister Tyrell alliance has virtually shattered. Tyrell or another Reach house could become Kingmaker for Aegon. Peace does not exist because of Cersei.

 

Technically the Civil War never ended. Greyjoy and Stannis were still fighting. The North and Riverlands ripe for rebellion. Arryn and Martel ready to pounce. There was going to be a second round without Aegon or Dany.

 

Aegon is Rhaegars son. Judging by what Varys and JonCon say there is this view that Rhaegar was the good Targ and would have been a good King. As such his son miraculously returning makes for a good story. 

 

Dany is the Mad Kings Daughter. 

 

This is is a huge difference.

 

So people will side with Aegon. The question is who would side with Dany. It would be odd for GRRM to have no houses declare for Dany and all of them for Aegon. Especially since Dany has the smallest army.

 

"Davos told me I had the cart before the horse. I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been saving the kingdom to win the throne."

 

 

 

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The man has an image problem. His religion and absolute sense of justice is abhorrent to the Lords of Westeros. Plus, they still see him as a usurper. He also has a very weak position after the Blackwater. My point is that for most of the Southern Lords, he is not a serious contender for the throne anymore and barring a major turn of events is unlikely to change.

Aegon has the advantage of being Rhaegars son and arriving at the right moment with a crack army at his back and Dorne ready to join him.

Whereas Dany, is likely simply going to be so powerful that she will figure very prominently in the thinking of the Great Houses. Likely, a coalition against her. Aegon, not Stannis, is the person they would turn to. So even if they hate Dany and think she has no claim to the throne; they have to address her presence.

 

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The ones less happy with the status quo will be more likely to join her. Though it is probable that Aegon will scoop those up first.

Dany I think will most likely have to rely on non Westerosi. She is like to have unlimited numbers of those.

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I think its to early to say. The current issues of the day will decide what Houses sees and advantage in joining her cause.

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5 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

The ones less happy with the status quo will be more likely to join her. Though it is probable that Aegon will scoop those up first.

Dany I think will most likely have to rely on non Westerosi. She is like to have unlimited numbers of those.

 

She doesn't rule all of Essos and even if she did, then she would need to leave large numbers to hold these places. Plus I doubt GRRM is going to have a quarter million Dothraki cross the Narrow Sea. The practicalities of launching a naval invasion in winter will prevent Dany bringing what numbers she has to bear.

 

I think her army will likely come to the 40,000 mark, mostly Dothraki. Of this she will probably only be able to bring a fraction to bear in Westeros. Remember she has a lot of fighting in Essos still to do along with disease and famine to thin whatever Khalessar she has. Basically she will have an army slightly less powerful than the Lannisters, meaning she has to ally with other factions to beat the Lannisters. 

 

Basically she isn't going have limitless numbers and I don't think Essos will be providing her with anymore soldiers since she does not rule Essos.

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On 9/6/2017 at 11:11 AM, Lady Lia said:

But it's old bad blood. The Targaryens didn't do anything to anyone the current Starks actually knew. Aerys is pretty much a storybook villain to them. The Lannisters on the other hand have very directly and personally earned their enmity, so if circumstances fall out such that siding with Dany is their best shot at revenge and/or regaining their status, I'm pretty sure they'd go for it.

This is an interesting point. The alliances made during Rober's Rebellion are already falling apart, or have already fallen apart. Small houses, like the Darrys, would support Dany without question. But big houses may not remain the same if Dany every comes to Westeros to conquer. The Lannisters are just a husk of what they used to be. It's possible all the Lannister kids, Cersei, and even Jaime is dead by the time Dany arrives in Westeros. And Tyrion would side with the dragons in a heartbeat, because he loves dragons. The lord of the Vale are not strongly bound to the crown anymore. The Baratheons are all dead except for Stannis, who has gone crazy. Also, Stannis would have to side with Dany because of his religious convictions (if he stays alive). The Starks are scattered and no longer have control of Winterfell. Dorne would side with Dany, to take revenge on the Lannisters if not for anything else. 

Something tells me this feudal system is going to fall apart as winter arrives. The War of the Five Kings devastates the lands. There will be widespread famine as the months get colder. No one has saved food for the winter because of the war. If Dany comes with her dragons, all she has to do is offer food and people would side with her. Not to mention the threat of the Others. The Wall, with no Lord Commander, would likely be penetrated by WW who come south. The northern lands, if they realize what's happening, would side with the dragons. 

I'm guessing Dany won't have anything left to conquer per se, except maybe the WW. In winter everyone will be in survival mode. 

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On 9/5/2017 at 10:28 PM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Not everyone who fought for the rebels in the Rebellion "hate" the Mad King's Daughter.

Correct!  Some had to be bribed to fight. 

Many opposed their great lord and stayed loyal to the king.  Many more are tired of the Starks, Baratheons, Lannisters, and Greyjoys by now and these will flock to the side of Daenerys Targaryen. 

The Baratheons didn't even last more than one generation.  Their incompetence has been proven in the eyes of the people.  The people would welcome the return of Targaryen rule. 

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On 9/5/2017 at 6:46 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

Okay bit of a disclaimer here. Technically speaking Dany and Aegon are on the same side. We all assume that he will marry Arriane and Dany will attack him for cutting her out of the succession.

Actually, I think that's the minority assumption. I think more readers, at least more of the readers who engage in this forum, believe that Daeney will come, guns blazing to blast Aegon the pretender off her father's throne. I see it the way you and Tyrion see it, though. 

On 9/5/2017 at 6:46 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

But it strictly speaking has not happened. So you could argue that Dorne is still on Danys side. Although it feels like such a GRRM thing for the faction that genuinely was trying to help Viserys and her get the throne ends up on the wrong end of her wrath. However, its so obviously going to happen that I am just going to assume that support for Aegon means that faction is against Daenerys. 

Which, really limits the number of Houses which could support Dany.

* Starks - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter

* Tullys - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter

* Arryns - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter. Also Littlefinger hates Varys and his pro Targ plotting. 

* Baratheons - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter

* Lannisters - The enemy

* Tyrell - Married to the enemy

* Martell - Soon to be married to the other enemy.

* Greyjoy - Euron 

I think you have to break each of these down. What is House Stark? The lord of Winterfell and King in the North died without a recognized heir. House Bolton controls Winterfell, and the only army coming for it is commanded by Stannis Baratheon. Wyman Manderly has pledged to support Stannis if Davos returns Rickon. Rickon would likely be made Lord of Winterfell if he survives, but the boy is like to do what Stannis and Wyman tell him to do. Presumably, Jon is "dead." Bran is married to a tree and eating paste. Arya is off in Braavos and Sansa is off in the Vale. They both have a long way to go to command Winterfell and the houses of the North. 

If the Blackfish springs Edmure from Forley Prester's chains, he out to be able to retake rally the Riverlanders to support ABC (that would be anybody but Cersei.) But don't forget your Patchface: "Under the Sea, men marry fishes." If Edmure does retake Riverrun, it's like to be with help from the Brotherhood Without Banners, whose members have turned to the same god to which Stannis has turned. 

House Arryn is Sweetrobin, his Lord Protector, and Harry the Heir. Is Alayne merely the reader's window to the Vale and an object for the players, or is she a player? For now, Petyr is calling the shots. He is very difficult to predict because his character has been developed so that he could make any move. 

When you say Baratheon, which Baratheon do you mean? The Lord of Storm's End was killed by his brother's shadow. Stannis used the same foul sorcery to take Storm's End, but that castle 

Spoiler

has fallen to wee Aegon,

and the men of the Stormlands never loved Stannis in any event. Stannis lost Dragonstone to Loras, who captured it at great cost for Stannis's presumed nephew, King Tommen Baratheon. 

Cersei Lannister is the lady of Casterly Rock. What happens now with Cersei after the Epilogue to Dance? Is she still just queen dowager, or is she queen regent again? What should we assume about what happened in King's Landing during the aftermath of the assassination of Kevan given what we have read in Mercy and Arianne II? Jamie and Daven are her generals in the field, but Jaime has gone off with the Beauty of Tarth. I assume Daven would continue to take his orders from Cersei, though, and I don't see Cersei and Tommen walking away from the Iron Throne. 

Mace Tyrell's power beyond Highgarden depends on his daughter's marriage to Tommen, and his power

Spoiler

is about to be tested somewhere between Bronzegate and Storm's End. 

House Martell is not going to back Daenerys, especially if they believe, or at least want to believe, that Aegon is who he thinks he is. Once Arch and Drink return from Slaver's Bay, there will be little love for Daenerys in Dorne. 

Euron appears to be in firm command of House Greyjoy. He's an even wilder card than Petyr Baelish. Would Victarion challenge him if he returns from Slaver's Bay? I know some people see it, but I cannot see Daenerys joining either of those two brutes. 

On 9/5/2017 at 6:46 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

However I would be really surprised if GRRM had nobody join Danys faction from inside Westeros. I mean, you cant really have another Dance with Dragons if you don't have a Black faction to face the Greens?

Of the minor houses:

* Everyone in the North, Vale and Riverlands - Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter. Jorah doesn't count.

* Dornish - Given the stress on Dornish nationalism I can't see any of them siding with an outsider against Martel.

* Westerlands - Since GRRM has barely mentioned them I assume they are unimportant and Tywin broke them long ago.

* Reach: This faction disintegrating has long been hinted at. JonCon suggests that Mace Tyrell will face defections from his bannermen. Optimistic? Maybe. But we know quite a bit about Tarly and Hightowers. Plus they are from a region that supported the Mad King. However, Randyl Tarly hates women, shown by his interactions with Brienne; so he won't like Dany. House Hightower also backed the Greens during the Dance. Plus given the immediacy of the Ironborn threat and Dany being so far away, Aegon is in a more immediate position to help them and win their support if he has ships.

* Okay she does have Victarion and his 100 ships helping her. But I cannot see Vic winning over Euron so that probably all the support she will get. 

This quite literally leaves nobody as a potential ally to Daenerys. I know some people seem to think that, "that's why she has the Unsullied and is probably going to get the Dothraki; shes too powerful as it is". However I would be surprised since the story is about Westeros and her relationship with its Houses is too important to be sidelined like that. Plus, all of those Essos armies are significantly smaller than those fielded by the Great Houses of Westeros. I would be very surprised to see her bring more than, say 20,000 Dothraki with her. On Essos, yes, she will have the full insane Genghis Khan horde but the sea means she is limited in what she can bring over. Plus the dragons are small and I can't see GRRM giving her full size dragons because they would be too powerful and people would just give up rather than fight her. So in Westeros she won't actually be that much more powerful than what Aegon brought with him.  The Lannisters have 60,000 men. That's significantly more than her 8000 Unsullied and the other Essosi units she has are unreliable. 

Also, Daenerys isn't a foreign ruler. She isn't Empress of New Valyria or anything like that. Her rule is very much a personal thing which extends out from her followers. Basically GRRM has not had her build a nation in Essos because he has an eye towards when she becomes Queen of Westeros and will have to do all of that stuff like ally and treat with the Great Houses. So its actually a very important part of her character that she has to deal with these people. Which has to involve people joining her at some point. I mean GRRM is not going to have Dany land with an army capable of conquering Westeros without any support from the Great Houses. She will have to win some of them over, otherwise she would just steamroller everyone. 

Do Mace and Cersei remain allied? Does Mace's power collapse? Does Euron join Cersei? Does Stannis march south? Does Daenerys ally with Aegon? Which events happen before others? 

When it comes time for the red and the black and the black and the green to dance, as far as the second tier of houses go, I think you have to dig deeper than just their location. The Dance of the Dragons was a civil war, as were the early Blackfyre Rebellions. In civil wars, brothers fight brothers. So, I expect that we will see sharp divisions in each region. For example, I will be looking for Bracken to side with Aegon, and Blackwood to side with Daenerys. In the Vale, I expect to see a split that resembles the Battle of the Seven Stars. In the Reach, I expect these houses to back Aegon. In Dorne, I expect these houses to back Daenerys. 

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5 hours ago, Wolf's Bane said:

Correct!  Some had to be bribed to fight. 

Many opposed their great lord and stayed loyal to the king.  Many more are tired of the Starks, Baratheons, Lannisters, and Greyjoys by now and these will flock to the side of Daenerys Targaryen. 

The Baratheons didn't even last more than one generation.  Their incompetence has been proven in the eyes of the people.  The people would welcome the return of Targaryen rule. 

The question though at this point is which Targaryen? With Aegon in the mix, the Targ-friendly may split right down the middle, hence the upcoming Dance that was Promised.

Edited by Lady Blizzardborn

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@Lady Blizzardborn

 

You're assuming that Daenerys will be viewed simply as another claimant for the Iron Throne. It's very likely that Dany will and does have a terrible reputation. 

Spoiler

Arrianes chapters imply that it's rumoured she had Viserys murdered. Plus there is clear speculation on her sanity. If she does it then it stands to reason that many other Pro Targ people will as well.

 

From a storytelling perspective, GRRM won't subdivide the factions that much. It would create too many to keep track of. He will keep them as broad blocks and reference them as he needs to.

 

Also Rhaenys had the advantage of being chosen by her father as heir and all the Lords swore to this. So oaths and honour entered the equation which is why some Lords backed her. But Dany has not had those prior bonds of fealty. So there isn't the same moral incentive for a faction to form around Daenerys. 

 

That Reach list seems to have almoat all the reach houses backing Aegon. Kind of proves my point. Only big ones you missed were Tyrell and Tarly; neither of whom would back Dany.

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"Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter" is pretty reductive. Not every lord is that petty, and none of the surviving members of the former rebel houses (except Stannis) had a personal stake in RR or an emotional connection to it.

I think Yronwood is being set up to ally with Dany. They're the second most powerful house in Dorne and seem to have a bit of a rivalry with the Martells. Archibald Yronwood was also very chill and understanding about Quentyn's death. I'm sure there are other houses (probably a few from the Reach and Riverlands) but I'm not observant enough to say which.

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3 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

From a storytelling perspective, GRRM won't subdivide the factions that much. It would create too many to keep track of. He will keep them as broad blocks and reference them as he needs to.

Why wouldn't he? He did it in TPatQ. And if he wants this to actually be a Dance 2.0 rather than a retro-adaptation of the HBO adaptation, he'll make it work the same way he did for Dance 1.0, so it feels like a detailed and realistic civil war.

And it's not much to keep track of at all. Once you establish where each house goes, you only need to mention the important characters after that.

For example, I don't remember exactly which Crownlands houses and Reach houses stayed with Stannis without looking it up, and I'll bet GRRM doesn't either, and it doesn't matter. If it's not a major tertiary character like a Florent doing something, it's almost always just "some of the southern knights" doing something. I remember being surprised one time when he talked about a Horpe doing something or other and I had no idea who the Horpes were, but that's it. Not bad for three massive novels since the Blackwater.

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5 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

"Roberts Rebellion, hate Mad Kings Daughter" is pretty reductive. Not every lord is that petty, and none of the surviving members of the former rebel houses (except Stannis) had a personal stake in RR or an emotional connection to it.

I think Yronwood is being set up to ally with Dany. They're the second most powerful house in Dorne and seem to have a bit of a rivalry with the Martells. Archibald Yronwood was also very chill and understanding about Quentyn's death. I'm sure there are other houses (probably a few from the Reach and Riverlands) but I'm not observant enough to say which.

Oh my sweet summer child. :)

If the Dornish were a faction given over to infighting then they wouldn't have all sided against Aegon. They seem to be a united front and some grumblings hardly makes it likely for them to side with Dany. The Martels seem to be held in the same mythical reverence as the Starks in the North. However there aren't obvious traitors and evil men like the Boltons in the Dornish case. Dayne is just one man.

 

Plus timing is important. Currently they have no reason to assume Aegon and Dany are not on the same side so will be drafted into Aegons cause along with the Martels. Also didn't Yronwood mentor Quentin and send his son off in the quest to fetch Dany? I don't think anyone in Dorne knows that Quentin is dead. Did you mean Oberyn?

 

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I think the underlying assumption that forms the basis of this question is wrong; namely, that there will be large scale warfare between Daenerys and Aegon.

I have a difficult time envisioning such a scenario, especially since Aegon is only one of three enemies Daenerys has to face in Westeros and the series is supposed to end in two more books, not a half dozen more.

The way I see it, the confrontation with Aegon, when it happens, will be short, to the point and fiery. Arimies will not even factor into the equation.

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23 minutes ago, Faint said:

I have a difficult time envisioning such a scenario, especially since Aegon is only one of three enemies Daenerys has to face in Westeros

The war between Aegon and the Lannister-Tyrell faction could well be over long before Dany arrives. Their main army is going to be marching out under control of Randyll Tarly, who may be JonConn's main "friend in the Reach", which would end the war before it starts. If not, there are all kinds of ways Cersei could screw things up—say she manages to get Margy killed; if she's lucky, Mace just declares himself neutral and takes his army and navy home to fight Euron, and Aegon takes KL in a couple weeks.

As for Stannis, if he's not really or apparently dead, he may just be stuck in the North. In which case everyone down south can ignore him until their struggles are over.

The only faction we really have to worry about getting in the way of the Dance 2.0 is Euron. Or maybe the Others. (And I know some fans are sure that's only one faction, but either way, it doesn't change anything.)

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The best Daenerys can hope is Tyrells some Crownlords, some Ironlords (Victarion's team) and some Riverldords.

Tyrells will probably lose too much when Lannisters lose the throne and Aegon favours Tarlys and Rowans.Daenerys can restore them to their former position.

Rosby, Stokeworth, Duskendale and the lords of the Narrow Sea will ally with Daenerys because of proximity to Dragonstone where she lands.

Victarion will join her because of his hatred for Euron.

North and most Riverlands are devastated by war. Vale will probably be focused to the North.Reach,Dorne,Stormlands will go to Aegon's team.Lannisters will not join her as long as Cersei is alive.

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