Tyrion1991

Will any Houses support Dany?

55 posts in this topic

I just remembered that Euron is messing up the Reach. Perhaps Dany gets the Redwynes or some of the other Reach houses near the coast by roasting Euron, à la Aegon and Black Harren.

4 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

Oh my sweet summer child. :)

If the Dornish were a faction given over to infighting then they wouldn't have all sided against Aegon. They seem to be a united front and some grumblings hardly makes it likely for them to side with Dany. The Martels seem to be held in the same mythical reverence as the Starks in the North. However there aren't obvious traitors and evil men like the Boltons in the Dornish case. Dayne is just one man.

Plus timing is important. Currently they have no reason to assume Aegon and Dany are not on the same side so will be drafted into Aegons cause along with the Martels. Also didn't Yronwood mentor Quentin and send his son off in the quest to fetch Dany? I don't think anyone in Dorne knows that Quentin is dead. Did you mean Oberyn?

No, I'm referring to the Yronwood who accompanied Quentyn to Essos. When Q died, Gerris Drinkwater got upset and blamed Dany while Yronwood stayed calm and objective.

I'm not saying the Dornish houses are prone to in-fighting, just there's an exploitable rivalry between the two most powerful families. I can't quite remember the passage(s) that suggests this (maybe it was in TWOIAF?), but I'm sure I'm not pulling this out of my ass. Think of them as the Karstarks to the Starks. They're friendly now, but what happens when they're not on the same page where Aegon is concerned? Or when Dany rides in with her dragons? I think the hint of friction has to be more than just world-building, considering where the story is headed.

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On 8.9.2017 at 3:30 AM, StraightFromAsshai said:

 

"Davos told me I had the cart before the horse. I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been saving the kingdom to win the throne."

 

 

 

I go with this.

The assumption is, that Dany will play the game the moment she will arrive in Westeros, but i don't think so: She has a lot of people moving toward her, and at least two of them want her at the Wall: Moqorro and Maester Marwyn. And there is also the third variation of the prophesy, which is constantly overlooked: The stallion should take his (her) khalasar to the end of the world. The Wall is often named the end of the world in the books, so i think that Dany will be persuaded to go fight the Others (maybe by looking through glass candles), and will take her people to the North.

While I _do_ think she will take Dragonstone, as there will be things in the secret passages, they will most likely need (Valyrian Steel etc.) and Dragon glass, I don't believe she will land her armada at Dragonstone, as there is not enough space for that many ships on the isle. My guess is they will land at the Tringent (Silent Isle), as Dany also has to fetch her brothers rubies, and a lot of people are in that region somewhere.

As of Aegon: By the time Dany arrives at Westeros i think his negative character traits (as observed by Tyrion in ADWD) will show themselves more and more often. The rumors about Dany being mad and the assumption Aegon (no matter if false or true in the end) would be his fathers son and fit to become a good king is a nice small twist.

I do not know that the lords will do with this, but I'm quite sure that Varys will abandon Aegon then, because as much as he plays the game with Illyrio, he _is_ playing his own game of getting a good king on the throne. I think he is honest about his statement, that he is on the side of the realm, and no one else.

Edited by Morte
typo

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You have three dragons and the Unsullied , eventually they all will support Dany or be roasted alive, If any house would side with Dany it would be the Tullys , outside of the Crownlands  the most loyal was the Riverlands .

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2 hours ago, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

You have three dragons and the Unsullied , eventually they all will support Dany or be roasted alive, If any house would side with Dany it would be the Tullys , outside of the Crownlands  the most loyal was the Riverlands .

 

They rose up against the Mad King. They won't support his daughter.

Edited by Tyrion1991

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17 minutes ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

They rose up against the Mad King. They won't support his daughter.

The rebellion of the house of Tully had nothing to do with how the felt about Aerys they wast  supporting the Starks . Now that the Young Wolf is dead ,Dany is the only choice . 

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1 hour ago, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

The rebellion of the house of Tully had nothing to do with how the felt about Aerys they wast  supporting the Starks . Now that the Young Wolf is dead ,Dany is the only choice . 

 

That assumes we won't see a King in the north or Lord Stark under a baratheon.

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The thread has moved on a bit since my last post, but I don't see this point specifically addressed:

Several people have replied to me saying 'the Starks' will never support a Targaryen. But right now there is no 'the Starks.' There's Sansa, Arya, Bran, Rickon and possibly Jon, none of whom have seen each other or either of their parents in a long time, and none of whom are actually claiming any sort of authority over the North right now. Looking at them individually, I'm pretty sure Arya would leap at the chance to team up with anyone planning to bring blood and fire to the Lannisters... although it's a pity that pretty much all of their mutual enemies are or will be dead before either of them get back to King's Landing. I'm also pretty sure that Arya, Sansa and Bran in his current state would be very amenable to any deal that involves returning the siblings to Winterfell and reuniting them with each other. If Bran goes full-blown time-travelling tree god as some people have suggested, who knows.

Rickon's a little boy who has never had a POV. We have no idea what he thinks. But if he re-enters the narrative, it will very probably be as the figurehead of some pro-Northern faction, in which case, depends on what deals they're willing to make.

Jon is harder, since there are a lot of potential confusing factors such as his probable parentage and whether he knows about it, whether her dragons show any interest in him, his Night's Watch vows, his pre-existing loyalty to Stannis and his current possible state of being dead. But I definitely wouldn't rule out some kind of deal between him and Dany, especially if that deal involves setting fire to Others.

In all these cases, I'm assuming that the Stark in question encounters Dany under circumstances amenable to diplomacy and that she has something to offer them. If not then obviously there isn't going to be any deal.

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26 minutes ago, Lady Lia said:

The thread has moved on a bit since my last post, but I don't see this point specifically addressed:

Several people have replied to me saying 'the Starks' will never support a Targaryen. But right now there is no 'the Starks.' There's Sansa, Arya, Bran, Rickon and possibly Jon, none of whom have seen each other or either of their parents in a long time, and none of whom are actually claiming any sort of authority over the North right now. Looking at them individually, I'm pretty sure Arya would leap at the chance to team up with anyone planning to bring blood and fire to the Lannisters... although it's a pity that pretty much all of their mutual enemies are or will be dead before either of them get back to King's Landing. I'm also pretty sure that Arya, Sansa and Bran in his current state would be very amenable to any deal that involves returning the siblings to Winterfell and reuniting them with each other. If Bran goes full-blown time-travelling tree god as some people have suggested, who knows.

Rickon's a little boy who has never had a POV. We have no idea what he thinks. But if he re-enters the narrative, it will very probably be as the figurehead of some pro-Northern faction, in which case, depends on what deals they're willing to make.

Jon is harder, since there are a lot of potential confusing factors such as his probable parentage and whether he knows about it, whether her dragons show any interest in him, his Night's Watch vows, his pre-existing loyalty to Stannis and his current possible state of being dead. But I definitely wouldn't rule out some kind of deal between him and Dany, especially if that deal involves setting fire to Others.

In all these cases, I'm assuming that the Stark in question encounters Dany under circumstances amenable to diplomacy and that she has something to offer them. If not then obviously there isn't going to be any deal.

 

Generally I think people mean Starks as short hand for "Northern Houses". I think the North are completely consumed by this nationalist notion and would be loathe to bend the knee to a Southern Ruler. They want a Northern and ideally a Stark KIng. Its really not 

Since the Game of Thrones ends once the Others show up this means little. Everyone, should, band together to deal with that. It doesn't mean Jon or the North will acknowledge Dany. In fact the conflict with the Others should mean that Jon would be loathe to send any troops south to help Dany win the Throne. 

Also it would be too convenient for the Starks and Dany/Tyrion to ally. GRRM would be bucking the trend of wars that didn't need to happen and good people ending up on opposite sides of wars if he did that. 

Personally I think in the books Jon is going to be resurrected and march South like he said he would. Then he will be proclaimed King of the North by the Lords. Once he does that then he has achieved the independence he wanted. He has no reason to get involved in a southern war.

Spoiler

In the show Jon does not march the Northern/Vale armies to help Daenerys depose Cersei. Although that would be an extremely easy way to solve everyones problems. His whole goal is to convince her to send troops North and its not even quite clear that he can or will commit to helping her claim after the war. 

 

 

 

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I don't know. Reflecting upon the traditional Targaryen and Blackfyre houses there seem to be a lot of problems with Targaryen loyalists.

 

Loyalists like house Lannister, Tyrell, Tully, Arryn or Martell seem to have their own issues. While blackfyre houses like Yronwood or Hightower can most likely be ruled out. There is something odd about the design and the available houses. 

I would go full Darry in the question which houses support Dany.

 

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Isn't House Darry decimated? I think there's only the female line left, and they're all married to Freys. And one of them married Lancel.

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You are right. How convenient. Almost like someone is killing Targaryen loyalists.

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On 9/8/2017 at 8:34 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

@Lady Blizzardborn

 

You're assuming that Daenerys will be viewed simply as another claimant for the Iron Throne. It's very likely that Dany will and does have a terrible reputation. 

  Reveal hidden contents

Arrianes chapters imply that it's rumoured she had Viserys murdered. Plus there is clear speculation on her sanity. If she does it then it stands to reason that many other Pro Targ people will as well.

<snip

I've read that chapter and I disagree completely with your assessment of it.

I do not assume she will be viewed as just another claimant. She had dragons. That puts her head and shoulders above everyone else. 

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1 hour ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I've read that chapter and I disagree completely with your assessment of it.

I do not assume she will be viewed as just another claimant. She had dragons. That puts her head and shoulders above everyone else. 

Spoiler

Arriane doubting Daenerys fits with a pattern that's likely going to lead to her marrying Aegon and a second dance that will cause another Dornish tragedy. At one point Arriane thinks "I hope she is kinder to him than she was to her brother". Yes Arriane isn't aware of all the facts, but her and Mace Tyrell are really the first opinions we are seeing so they are the most indicitiative. She also seriously questions Damon Sand over Danys sanity. Surely she's  very much is in the camp that wants to believe Dany is going to be a good person who will help House Martel. She should want to believe. The fact that even she is riven with doubt and is making judgements based on misinformation and gossip  from half a world away says something. 

This is how a strong Westerosi ally views her. How do you think more neutral houses will view her?

Even the show makes it clear (if extremely difficult to take seriously coming from Cersei and Danys white washing) that the Lords of the West and Reach essentially fight Dany because they believe she is evil based on gossip, outright lies, misinformation and hearsay. Whereas the guy who actually goes to meet her  with a more open mind comes away thinking she's awesome.

Because if GRRM didn't have people believe Dany was a blood soaked tyrant as mad as her father then they would probably hear all the good stuff about her and it would make it difficult to understand why people don't just betray Cersei; who is super unpopular and put Dany on the throne. 

 

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1 hour ago, Tyrion1991 said:
  Reveal hidden contents

Arriane doubting Daenerys fits with a pattern that's likely going to lead to her marrying Aegon and a second dance that will cause another Dornish tragedy. At one point Arriane thinks "I hope she is kinder to him than she was to her brother". Yes Arriane isn't aware of all the facts, but her and Mace Tyrell are really the first opinions we are seeing so they are the most indicitiative. She also seriously questions Damon Sand over Danys sanity. Surely she's  very much is in the camp that wants to believe Dany is going to be a good person who will help House Martel. She should want to believe. The fact that even she is riven with doubt and is making judgements based on misinformation and gossip  from half a world away says something. 

This is how a strong Westerosi ally views her. How do you think more neutral houses will view her?

Even the show makes it clear (if extremely difficult to take seriously coming from Cersei and Danys white washing) that the Lords of the West and Reach essentially fight Dany because they believe she is evil based on gossip, outright lies, misinformation and hearsay. Whereas the guy who actually goes to meet her  with a more open mind comes away thinking she's awesome.

Because if GRRM didn't have people believe Dany was a blood soaked tyrant as mad as her father then they would probably hear all the good stuff about her and it would make it difficult to understand why people don't just betray Cersei; who is super unpopular and put Dany on the throne. 

 

Spoiler

 

Arianne doubting Dany is not the same as there being a general belief, as you implied in a previous post, that Daenerys killed her own brother. Arianne is viewing Dany's actions through the lens of what she would have meant by them if she'd done them. It doesn't occur to her that Dany couldn't have prevented Viserys' death, because she lacks the ability to see things from anything other than her own perspective. It's a common failing and a very human one, but it has no bearing on what the general consensus is.

I have no idea why you think the first opinions we get will be the most indicative. Mace and Arianne both benefit from running Dany down, or dismissing her as a possible threat. Neither is objective. 

This is not the first time Arianne has made judgments based on incomplete information. It's rather her pattern. She spent years sulking over what she thought was a slight from her father instead of going to the man and asking him what the truth was. She schemed behind his back to do something that had incredibly dangerous consequences which she didn't bother to think about before going ahead with the plan. If she really wanted to believe Dany would be a good ally, she wouldn't be trying to convince herself (and possibly others) that Dany is insane. And if she wanted to know what was what, she wouldn't be asking Daemon Sand who knows as much as Jon Snow does about Daenerys.

Arianne is not Dorne. She herself is not a strong Westerosi ally. And if she believes Aegon is the real deal, or convinces herself that she believes it, no one would be surprised at her and House Martell siding with someone more closely related to them than Dany is. At the moment there is no conflict between Dany and Aegon. Though if Arianne keeps it up she may accidentally cause one.

The show has very little to do with the books at this point. It can't be used as evidence of anything. And the last episode GRRM wrote was in Season 4 so there's no point trying to use anything from 5-7 to support a theory about where the books are headed.

GRRM strives for realism. There will be rumors of good things, and rumors of bad things, and rumors stating things happened that never actually did. The smart characters will keep in mind that gossip is famously unreliable, and the less smart characters will believe what they want to believe. The upcoming Dance of the Dragons doesn't need one side to be crazy. It's a fair succession crisis.

 

This is not the post you're looking for. :ph34r:

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Dany isn't actually crazy. What Iam saying is that it's reasonable to expect that people will side against Dany because of misinformation and thinking she is evil.

GRRM did this with Roberts Rebellion. Whole thing hinged on Rhaegar and Lyanna not telling everybody what was going on until it snowballed. So it's reasonable that Dorne and other Lords would make similar ill informed calls. The War of Fove Kings similarly hinged on a lot of poor or ill judged decisions snow balling. So ADWD will likely be similar.

I mean to me as a reader, Dany is basically Rand al Thor from Wheel of Time. You have a messianic character uniting the world with the dragons to oppose the impending undead army. Barring massive inexplicable coincidences she seems to have some sort of Destiny or be a chosen one type character; divine influence or no. But she and almost everyone else is oblivious to this; whilst we the reader are more clued in. Which is a clear example of characters not having all the information impacting the story. People would probably view Dany very differently if they knew Undead coming for them. But instead her actions are seen as those of a blood thirsty tyrant. Whilst Dany knows she has a destiny but not what it is. Imagine if Moraine never found Rand? That sort of thing.

So I actually think GRRM wouldn't do a straight up succession crisis. He likes to add a sense of drama and tragedy to the proceedings and the Chief vehicle for that is both sides not knowing. So the people of Westeros mistaking Aragon for Sauron fits with that.

 

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