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Clegane'sPup

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1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

All I am trying to get across is that I do not know which place Wex’s knife marked on the map.

Based on where Wex's knife landed, Davos thinks he's going to be sent by sea to some place known for cannibalism. That means we know that the knife landed on Skagos.

2 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Apparently Wex somehow managed to overhear and/or follow Rickon, Osha & the wolf then get captured and was able to convince his captors he had valuable information and needed to be taken to Manderly.

Yes, apparently so. Since that's what the story strongly implies, and there's nothing implausible in it, it's probably what happened. I mean, you say you agree that most of what the book tells us is correct, so why are you trying to assume that what the book tells us here is incorrect? 

Meanwhile:

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Full disclosure, for fun and for free. I speculate that Manderly has Rickon, Osha and the wolf stashed and is sending Davos on a wild goose chase.

Manderly tricking Davos, Wex tricking Manderly, Wex being mistaken, and Manderly fooling himself into thinking Wex knows more than he does because he's desperate to believe—any one of those is possible, but no more than one of them can be possible. Evidence for one is evidence against the others. Manderly can't be sending Davos to Skagos to send him on a wild goose chase if we don't know that Wex's knife landed on Skagos. Wex can't be tricking Manderly if Wex couldn't have been captured by Manderly's people in a way that makes his story plausible. And so on.

But you don't seem to take it that way, you just argue for all of them, out of what seems to be desperation to believe that what the book is clearly telling us isn't true, despite saying you agree that most of what the book tells us is actually true.

Like LynnS, I could see a possible thematic purpose in the quest for Rickon and Shaggydog being a shaggy dog story. But you still need an in-universe way to get there for it to be plausible, you can't just assume that everyone is doing unmotivated and/or impossible things just to make it happen.

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Wex's story is inherently a suspicious one.  It is a long way to follow two people for no apparent gain, and he cannot have followed them all the way to Skagos, as it is an island.  Even if he saw them board a ship, there would be other potential destinations. I suppose it is possible he heard Osha mention Skagos, although to be close enough to overhear would be dangerous with the direwolf about.

I am, however, satisfied that they are indeed on Skagos.  One possibility is that Manderly is using Wex's tale to hide how he truly knows their location (either he put them there himself, or was tipped off, possibly by the Umbers.)  

As for what happens next, I expect that Davos is involved in Hardhome, and ends up in the Far North.  I don't think Davos or Rickon is going to be south of the Wall anytime soon.

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1 hour ago, UnFit Finlay said:

They've wronged him though, and were responsible for the murder of his son and his King.

Stannis is actively fighting them, and to free the North from the Ironborn and the Boltons. He returned Deepwood Motte to the Glovers even though he had no real reason to. "Tricking" him serves no purpose and actually risks turning a much needed ally into an enemy. For example, if Davos should happen to die on this mission then it would essentially be the same as executing him. That seems a big risk when, for your theory to work, he merely could've kept Davos safely hidden in the dungeons.

I was gonna say I don’t have a theory. Then I decided to check the definition.

Theory - a supposition or a system of ideas intended to explain something, especially one based on general principles independent of the thing to be explained.

Synonyms:   hypothesis, thesis, conjecture, supposition, speculation, postulation, postulate, proposition, premise, surmise, assumption, presupposition

According to the definition I must admit, yeppers I got myself a theory.


 
1 hour ago, UnFit Finlay said:

They've wronged him though, and were responsible for the murder of his son and his King.

Stannis is actively fighting them, and to free the North from the Ironborn and the Boltons. He returned Deepwood Motte to the Glovers even though he had no real reason to. "Tricking" him serves no purpose and actually risks turning a much needed ally into an enemy. For example, if Davos should happen to die on this mission then it would essentially be the same as executing him. That seems a big risk when, for your theory to work, he merely could've kept Davos safely hidden in the dungeons.

 

Who sits on the Iron Throne, the power base of Westeos? The Lannister’s do; under the guise that Tommen is Robert’s true born son.

I do not dispute that one of Manderly’s sons died and the other was held hostage. I do not dispute that King Stannis with the help of the northern clans cleared Deepwood of the Ironborn.

In between Cok and DwD ----- Manderly somehow managed to get hold of Wex.  Any idea how that happened?

Like I said, the fat man is tricksy. He hedged his bets and out smarted the Lannister’s and the Frey’s AND the Bolton’s ---- he brought no hostages to Barrowton. Paraphrasing, Manderly tells Davos his liege is Rickon. Go find him for me and I will support King Stannis.  That is a contradiction in and of itself.

So, yes if I go back to my for fun and for free comment that Manderly has Osha, Rickon and the wolf hidden away that means Manderly is lying to Davos and sending him on a wild goose chase in order to get Davos out of the way so that Manderly does not have to commit to King Stannis. Northerners love their Starks.

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48 minutes ago, falcotron said:

But you don't seem to take it that way, you just argue for all of them, out of what seems to be desperation to believe that what the book is clearly telling us isn't true, despite saying you agree that most of what the book tells us is actually true.

I've been polite with you. I have not projected any thoughts on your posts. Frankly sweetheart, we got nuttin' left to say to each other.

 

 

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21 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Who sits on the Iron Throne, the power base of Westeos? The Lannister’s do; under the guise that Tommen is Robert’s true born son.

I do not dispute that one of Manderly’s sons died and the other was held hostage. I do not dispute that King Stannis with the help of the northern clans cleared Deepwood of the Ironborn.

In between Cok and DwD ----- Manderly somehow managed to get hold of Wex.  Any idea how that happened?

Like I said, the fat man is tricksy. He hedged his bets and out smarted the Lannister’s and the Frey’s AND the Bolton’s ---- he brought no hostages to Barrowton. Paraphrasing, Manderly tells Davos his liege is Rickon. Go find him for me and I will support King Stannis.  That is a contradiction in and of itself.

So, yes if I go back to my for fun and for free comment that Manderly has Osha, Rickon and the wolf hidden away that means Manderly is lying to Davos and sending him on a wild goose chase in order to get Davos out of the way so that Manderly does not have to commit to King Stannis. Northerners love their Starks.

But he doesn't need to commit to Stannis. He needs to convince Stannis that he didn't murder Davos in order to prove his loyalty to the Lannisters. If he can't he'll have no choice but to really ally with the Lannisters, Freys and Boltons or he'll end up having to fight everybody.

I just don't see the logic in sending Davos on a mission "to get him out of the way" when he was already out of the way. Everyone believes that he is dead. Why set him free and risk the lie being discovered by the Lannisters or, as I said before, Davos really dying, when he could just either keep him in the dungeons or hide him with Rickon and Osha? 

Also I don't see how pledging himself to Stannis in exchange for him restoring the Starks to Winterfell is that much of a contradiction. The alternative is, realistically, the end of House Stark.

It's an interesting theory but I just don't think it holds up logically. It's a big risk from Manderly's point of view for no real pay off.

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3 hours ago, UnFit Finlay said:

But he doesn't need to commit to Stannis. He needs to convince Stannis that he didn't murder Davos in order to prove his loyalty to the Lannisters. If he can't he'll have no choice but to really ally with the Lannisters, Freys and Boltons or he'll end up having to fight everybody.

When is Manderly going to convince Stannis that Davos is not dead but on a mission to bring bring Manderly’s liege back to him? As of the end of DwD Manderly is flopping around on the floor after his throat or was that chins have been sliced.

While I can appreciate your ideas and I thank you for providing your ideas they do not address how Manderly came to be in possession of Wex.

There is really no answer until Martin releases WoW.

A Dance with Dragons - Davos IV      There was no parchment in the chamber. The boy carved the letters into a wooden beam in the wall. W … E … X. He leaned hard into the X. When he was done he flipped the dagger in the air, caught it, and stood admiring his handiwork.

"Wex is ironborn. He was Theon Greyjoy's squire. Wex was at Winterfell." Glover sat. "How much does Lord Stannis know of what transpired at Winterfell?"

Davos thought back on the tales they'd heard. "Winterfell was captured by Theon Greyjoy, who had once been Lord Stark's ward. He had Stark's two young sons put to death and mounted their heads above the castle walls. When the northmen came to oust him, he put the entire castle to sword, down to the last child, before he himself was slain by Lord Bolton's bastard."

A Dance with Dragons - Davos IV   The mute flipped the dagger, caught it, then flung it end over end at the sheepskin map that adorned Lord Wyman's wall. It struck quivering. Then he grinned.     For half a heartbeat Davos considered asking Wyman Manderly to send him back to the Wolf's Den, to Ser Bartimus with his tales and Garth with his lethal ladies. In the Den even prisoners ate porridge in the morning. But there were other places in this world where men were known to break their fast on human flesh.

Notice that when Wex threw his knife at the map in the above quote and it landed on a mark Davos thinks his thought. Inconclusive.

 

 

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