r'hllor's redrum lobster

u.s. politics: a cruel and unusual government

367 posts in this topic

6 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

Oh I know what they MEAN.

Well it's a good thing you're here to speak for them.  Otherwise the liberals here might not ever know.

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4 hours ago, Sword of Doom said:

DeVos is a scumbag. 

Yes, she sure is. 

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10 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

Oh I know what they MEAN.  I'm merely suggesting that their conclusions might be wrong in some cases.

What a special snowflake you must be.  No one can possibly know what you mean, but you're able to generalize the intent of all liberals.  By mere suggestion, of course.

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7 hours ago, denstorebog said:

Trump is really playing with fire now. If working with Democrats over Republiicans really makes him upbeat enough that it is something we're going to see more of, he truly will Lose His Base™, and yes, I realize that has become something of a trope. But coverage of cooperation with Democrats will pierce the right-wing media bubble, it will bring down the wrath of Coulter, Jones, et. al., and it will make him completely useless to his own congressmembers. And at the same time he will never be able to buy himself enough love from any centrists there might be left in the country to offset the beating he's going to get.

You don't run on being an extremist just to start cooperating with the enemy.

I can't help but feel like cooperating with Trump is going to backfire on the Democrats. If there's one skill Trump has, it's cutting deals that eventually fuck over his partners and leave him without consequences. No one ever profits from working with him, except other amoral monsters like Putin. I sure as fuck don't trust Pelosi and Schumer to maneuver this situation with any skill.

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3 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

I can't help but feel like cooperating with Trump is going to backfire on the Democrats. If there's one skill Trump has, it's cutting deals that eventually fuck over his partners and leave him without consequences. No one ever profits from working with him, except other amoral monsters like Putin. I sure as fuck don't trust Pelosi and Schumer to maneuver this situation with any skill.

I think you're overestimating Trump's capabilities.  All "Chuck and Nancy" have done at this point is afforded themselves the same type of leverage in December without binding the "fiscal cliff" to Harvey funding - and in the process helped to further poison the well between Trump and GOP leadership on shared interests, names tax cuts.

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8 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

I can't help but feel like cooperating with Trump is going to backfire on the Democrats. If there's one skill Trump has, it's cutting deals that eventually fuck over his partners and leave him without consequences. No one ever profits from working with him, except other amoral monsters like Putin. I sure as fuck don't trust Pelosi and Schumer to maneuver this situation with any skill.

I definitely know what you mean, but at the same time, I get why the Democrats are doing it. Raising/eliminating the debt ceiling is really important, so there's that; but on top of that, the Democratic base seems to value cooperation and bipartisanship far more than the Republican base, as far as I can tell. It just seems like a sound call from a political risk-benefit analysis to me, but the unpredictability of Trump is always a serious concern and there are a nearly unlimited amount of ways this could blow up in their face due to that, although each one individually is probably as unlikely as the next. 

Edited by IamMe90

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1 minute ago, dmc515 said:

I think you're overestimating Trump's capabilities.  All "Chuck and Nancy" have done at this point is afforded themselves the same type of leverage in December without binding the "fiscal cliff" to Harvey funding - and in the process helped to further poison the well between Trump and GOP leadership on shared interests, names tax cuts.

It's hard to know what to make of Trump's entire life -- he clearly has some kind of low animal cunning, and learned well from a ratfucker like Roy Cohn. You may be right about overestimating him, but people have been underestimating him for too long. It can't just be Rich White Manhattan Asshole Privilege that's allowed him to skate free of the consequences of his own monstrous traits for so long.

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2 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

It's hard to know what to make of Trump's entire life -- he clearly has some kind of low animal cunning, and learned well from a ratfucker like Roy Cohn. You may be right about overestimating him, but people have been underestimating him for too long. It can't just be Rich White Manhattan Asshole Privilege that's allowed him to skate free of the consequences of his own monstrous traits for so long.

The bolded is certainly true.  However, this deal is legislative horse-trading, and his record and experience in that arena is either non-existent or all negative, depending on your perspective.

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54 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Interesting point, but does that number seem a bit high? I wonder where that data is coming from.

Given that there are roughly 800,000 of them, $11.64B means an average of $14,550 in taxes paid per person. This is significantly above the average for Americans so either there is something skewing the average (e.g. if Warren Buffet walks into a medium-sized bar, on average, everybody there is suddenly a billionaire) or they are significantly wealthier than most Americans or the $11.64B number is bogus. I think the third option is by far the most likely, especially given say, this $14 hourly wage estimate.

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32 minutes ago, Altherion said:

Given that there are roughly 800,000 of them, $11.64B means an average of $14,550 in taxes paid per person. This is significantly above the average for Americans so either there is something skewing the average

This is a fair point.  Perhaps there's a few uber-rich or a bunch of just super-rich dreamers that makes the distribution right-skewed?  I mean, it's possible, but otherwise, yeah, it's hard to believe.

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27 minutes ago, Altherion said:

Given that there are roughly 800,000 of them, $11.64B means an average of $14,550 in taxes paid per person. This is significantly above the average for Americans so either there is something skewing the average (e.g. if Warren Buffet walks into a medium-sized bar, on average, everybody there is suddenly a billionaire) or they are significantly wealthier than most Americans or the $11.64B number is bogus. I think the third option is by far the most likely, especially given say, this $14 hourly wage estimate.

I don't know how far off it actually is.  Average federal rate is 14%, SS is 6%, avg state income tax is 10%, plus sales tax, property taxes, auto taxes, etc.... you might actually get to an average of 50% paid in tax if you have no ability to file.

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2 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

This is a fair point.  Perhaps there's a few uber-rich or a bunch of just super-rich dreamers that makes the distribution right-skewed?  I mean, it's possible, but otherwise, yeah, it's hard to believe.

Depends if they are counting on their ability to not file because of their immigration status.  If not, their total effective rate would be incredibly high.

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Do Dreamers not have the ability to file? (Sincere question; no snark intended).

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1 minute ago, IamMe90 said:

Do Dreamers not have the ability to file? (Sincere question; no snark intended).

Before DACA and after the repeal, no.  Whether that was calculated as part of that $11B number, who knows?

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10 minutes ago, aceluby said:

Before DACA and after the repeal, no.  Whether that was calculated as part of that $11B number, who knows?

The figure is purportedly for 2016. DACA was enacted in 2012 and rescinded in September 2017. The filing deadline for 2016 tax returns was in April 2017. 

Sure, there are filing extensions that could be granted, but I'm not seeing how the repeal of the DACA could be that big of a factor here.

Edited by IamMe90

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12 minutes ago, aceluby said:

Depends if they are counting on their ability to not file because of their immigration status.  If not, their total effective rate would be incredibly high.

Well, the tweet in question referred to 2016, when they should have been able to file.  I have some (legal) immigrant friends, and they're not eligible for certain credits, but not to such a degree.

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49 minutes ago, Altherion said:

Given that there are roughly 800,000 of them, $11.64B means an average of $14,550 in taxes paid per person. This is significantly above the average for Americans so either there is something skewing the average (e.g. if Warren Buffet walks into a medium-sized bar, on average, everybody there is suddenly a billionaire) or they are significantly wealthier than most Americans or the $11.64B number is bogus. I think the third option is by far the most likely, especially given say, this $14 hourly wage estimate.

Scrolling down that Twitter thread it appears that this number isn't just using income tax figures, but also sales tax and property tax figures. Still seems high to me. At the very least, the Tweet is a bit misleading.

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3 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Scrolling down that Twitter thread it appears that this number isn't just using income tax figures, but also sales tax and property tax figures. Still seems high to me. At the very least, the Tweet is a bit misleading.

Yeah while I'm not discounting the disproportionate cost of sales tax on the poor, that's volatile at the individual level that probably shouldn't be included in such a precise estimate.

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5 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Scrolling down that Twitter thread it appears that this number isn't just using income tax figures, but also sales tax and property tax figures. Still seems high to me. At the very least, the Tweet is a bit misleading.

Are sales and property taxes not taxes?

I think it's prudent to assume figures such as these are reached crunching all of the numbers available to help bolster the point of whoever is making them. I don't know if that's "misleading" or not in this instance, since the statement is not really incorrect, at least on a plain-text reading. Definitely a lines-blurred case to me. 

Edited by IamMe90

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3 minutes ago, IamMe90 said:

Are sales and property taxes not taxes?

I think it's prudent to assume figures such as these are reached crunching all of the numbers available to help bolster the point of whoever is making them. I don't know if that's "misleading" or not in this instance, since the statement is not really incorrect, at least on a plain-text reading. Definitely a lines-blurred case to me. 

Sure, but when you attach that to a quip about how much tax Trump has paid, the assumption is going to be that you're talking about income taxes I would think. I think it would be more honest if it was stated in a more specific fashion. Not a big deal, but a bit misleading methinks.

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