Who will be accused for Kevan's and Pycelle's death?

[HexMachina]

On 09/09/2017 at 2:17 AM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Does anyone have a guess who will be the new Grand Maester? Because the Citadel has to send somebody.  The new Small Council could get very, very interesting. We'll have a new GM, we'll have Nymeria Sand, we'll have either Cersei or someone else as Regent. Who is the Hand right now? Mathis Rowan?

Will the Citadel even be capable of sending anyone by the time news reaches them is a more apt question I think. Euron is terrorising the seas, closing off that route for a new GM. And Aegon has landed in the Stormlands with the Golden Company already seizing castles, making the overland journey also pretty perilous. Not to mention any possible internal conflicts that seem likely to happen at the Citadel/Oldtown in the near future. I suspect the Archmaesters will be too busy to fill the vacancy for a while yet

[PCK]

I never took into consideration that Pycelle was the key witness against Margaery. Added that Mace is the hand, it will cast suspicion on the Tyrells. She could definitely lose her trial now.

[Universal Sword Donor]

5 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Will the Citadel even be capable of sending anyone by the time news reaches them is a more apt question I think. Euron is terrorising the seas, closing off that route for a new GM. And Aegon has landed in the Stormlands with the Golden Company already seizing castles, making the overland journey also pretty perilous. Not to mention any possible internal conflicts that seem likely to happen at the Citadel/Oldtown in the near future. I suspect the Archmaesters will be too busy to fill the vacancy for a while yet

There's pretty much nothing endangering a maester. He can easily take a ship up the Mander, travel a bit overland, and then go down the blackwater like Mace did.

[Nihlus]

In a logical world, they'd all suspect Varys. Mainly on account of finding his body. The Regent of a kingdom being alone in a dangerous area with zero witnesses is not a thing that ever really happens in reality, nor is Varys' magic "no one sees me hightail from a fresh body" ability. Some sneaky guy going around and assassinating people without difficulty is stupid. Varys was able to get into the city unnoticed, lug around a crossbow through "secret passages", and then get at Kevan and Pycelle? What if, as you might expect of the Regent, Kevan had a guard or two with him? Varys would've been gutted like a pig. Both the success of the plan, and that Varys thought that the plan wasn't likely to end in his death at the hand of a guardsman's sword, is and was absurd.

 

[Darken]

The Tyrells wouldn't care less, they weren't their men. The Lannisters on the other hand will blame the Tyrells. Cersei will probably try to lure Tarly to turn against the Tyrells in exchange for the LP of the Reach. 

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Nihlus said:

In a logical world, they'd all suspect Varys. Mainly on account of finding his body. The Regent of a kingdom being alone in a dangerous area with zero witnesses is not a thing that ever really happens in reality, nor is Varys' magic "no one sees me hightail from a fresh body" ability. Some sneaky guy going around and assassinating people without difficulty is stupid. Varys was able to get into the city unnoticed, lug around a crossbow through "secret passages", and then get at Kevan and Pycelle? What if, as you might expect of the Regent, Kevan had a guard or two with him? Varys would've been gutted like a pig. Both the success of the plan, and that Varys thought that the plan wasn't likely to end in his death at the hand of a guardsman's sword, is and was absurd.

What motive would Varys have to murder the Lord Regent and the Grand Maester? He is just a foreign eunuch with no friends or interests in Westeros, is he not? He fled back to Essos from whence he came, did he not?

And Varys could have taken out a couple of guardsmen, too. The little birds can use crossbows, too, presumably.

As to the question at hand:

People will accuse each other - Cersei will be convinced Tyrion killed her uncle and Pycelle with the connivance of the Tyrells - just as he did with Tywin - and Mace and Tarly will indeed think Cersei arranged the murders to punish her uncle and Pycelle for abandoning her to the Faith and forcing her to suffer through her walk.

Right now nobody should blame the Dornishmen but depending when the information about Arianne going to Storm's End to meet Aegon arrives in the capital people could begin thinking that the Martells were behind it to weaken Tommen's regime. Lady Nym should also be met with, well, not exactly enthusiasm by Mace and Tarly, but they would have no reason to antagonize her at once. With Cersei it is difficult to say.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

Cersei will also suspect Dorne once she discovers Mace Tyrell and Lady Nym are lovers. 

[Sigella]

Wasnt there some tiff between Crown and Citadel when Tyrion tried to replace Pycelle? I seem to recall that the Citadel offered two archmaesters of common birth and Twin refused them and reinstated Pycelle?

[UnFit Finlay]

On 9/9/2017 at 2:17 AM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Does anyone have a guess who will be the new Grand Maester? Because the Citadel has to send somebody.  The new Small Council could get very, very interesting. We'll have a new GM, we'll have Nymeria Sand, we'll have either Cersei or someone else as Regent. Who is the Hand right now? Mathis Rowan?

I realise that it's crackpot but I wouldn't be surprised if "Pate" got the job. I believe Cersei complained about the need for younger men in the Council and he has absolutely no political leanings so his appointment wouldn't offend anybody. All sides might feel that his lowborn status will make him easy to manipulate.

The big flaw is, of course, is that he isn't even a Maester but he's obviously drastically improved and the fact that he's been there for five years makes it less suspicious if he completes his chain quickly.

13 hours ago, Nihlus said:

In a logical world, they'd all suspect Varys. Mainly on account of finding his body. The Regent of a kingdom being alone in a dangerous area with zero witnesses is not a thing that ever really happens in reality, nor is Varys' magic "no one sees me hightail from a fresh body" ability. Some sneaky guy going around and assassinating people without difficulty is stupid. Varys was able to get into the city unnoticed, lug around a crossbow through "secret passages", and then get at Kevan and Pycelle? What if, as you might expect of the Regent, Kevan had a guard or two with him? Varys would've been gutted like a pig. Both the success of the plan, and that Varys thought that the plan wasn't likely to end in his death at the hand of a guardsman's sword, is and was absurd.

Disagree.

We've already established that Varys has a talent for disguise. At points he did it so well that people who actually knew him were unable to recognise him. If Barristan, one of the most celebrated Knights in the realm and hardly a master of deceit, could make it into the City without anyone noticing him then it's surely a given that Varys could?

As for the plan - You surely don't think Varys did this on the spur of the moment do you? We don't know what he's been doing since Tywin's death but it's a safe bet that he's been watching and planning. He would've known that Kevan was unlikely to have guards when in the Red Keep, and it was already established in the text that he felt Pycelle was being over-dramatic when he requested protection of his own. Besides IF Kevan did show up with guards then Varys could simply not kill him.

I'm not sure why you're putting "secret passages" in quotes either. The fact that they exist has been clearly established and we even know a good part of their history.

24 minutes ago, Sigella said:

Wasnt there some tiff between Crown and Citadel when Tyrion tried to replace Pycelle? I seem to recall that the Citadel offered two archmaesters of common birth and Twin refused them and reinstated Pycelle?

Wasn't it because the Citadel's choice was a Tyrell by birth?

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

3 hours ago, Sigella said:

Wasnt there some tiff between Crown and Citadel when Tyrion tried to replace Pycelle? I seem to recall that the Citadel offered two archmaesters of common birth and Twin refused them and reinstated Pycelle?

It was Gormon Tyrell.

i think Mace Tyrell takes the regency after Kevan dies, and fills every position of the Small council with Tyrell allies. The citadel might send Gormon Tyrell to replace Pycell.

on the other hand Gormon has taken Walgraves duties, so he might have a big role in Sams arc.

 

[snow is the man]

It was a brilliant move because it will likely go exactly the way varys said it would. Cersei will blame the tyrells and probably tyrion as well making her even more insane and the tyrells will blame cersei for it. Thus the lannisters and the tyrells will likely be at war soon and other houses will join in. meanwhile aegon can gain his foothold and have more time to get allies.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

On 9/14/2017 at 0:16 AM, Foot_Of_The_King said:

Mace is the current Hand. 

I have as little read on how Mace will interact with Lady Nym as how Mathis Rowan would have.

Cersei will not like having the beautiful and scantily-clad Sand Snake taking the male attention from her though. I'm really looking forward to the small council meetings in TWOW.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

19 hours ago, Nihlus said:

In a logical world, they'd all suspect Varys. Mainly on account of finding his body. The Regent of a kingdom being alone in a dangerous area with zero witnesses is not a thing that ever really happens in reality, nor is Varys' magic "no one sees me hightail from a fresh body" ability. Some sneaky guy going around and assassinating people without difficulty is stupid. Varys was able to get into the city unnoticed, lug around a crossbow through "secret passages", and then get at Kevan and Pycelle? What if, as you might expect of the Regent, Kevan had a guard or two with him? Varys would've been gutted like a pig. Both the success of the plan, and that Varys thought that the plan wasn't likely to end in his death at the hand of a guardsman's sword, is and was absurd.

 

Wait, finding whose body? Did you mean Kevan? Why should they suspect Varys? They think he's long gone. And the reason they think he left was having helped Tyrion escape. Tyrion had nothing against Kevan, so even Varys acting on the Imp's behalf wouldn't have killed Kevan. No, to even suspect it was Varys would require knowing he's on Team Aegon, and none of them know that.

You seem to have missed the possibility that Varys has Faceless Man training. Those guys are the ninjas of Worlderos. The assassinate easily and quickly and disappear with just as much speed and ease. We've seen Varys successfully pretending to be all kinds of people, and now we find out he's deadly too. Arya's arc in Braavos is not about girl power in the professional killer industry. We're could be learning about Varys too. I would think he failed to graduate though, which could be why he still uses "mummers' tricks" instead of faces.

Varys was able to get into the city unnoticed? What makes you think he ever left it? For all we know he never even left the Red Keep.

Lugging a crossbow around isn't that hard if you're used to it. And we know there are secret passages--that's the main reason Maegor I had all the builders killed, so no one but Targaryens would ever know about all of the secret passages.

What if Kevan had guards with him? This is Varys we're talking about. You don't think he did recon in advance so he'd know there weren't going to be guards? I suspect he's not as useless as he appears when it comes to bloodshed. He has carefully cultivated a persona of indolence and softness, but he doesn't hesitate to kill even people he knows are good in order to attain his goals. 

In reality, no one would have thought Keven was in danger, so any guards would be outside the chamber, not inside it. And it's not like he'd have Kingsguard assigned to him, heck the KG aren't all they're cracked up to be anymore--imagine how much less deadly the standard palace guards would be.

[Wild Bill]

2 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

You seem to have missed the possibility that Varys has Faceless Man training. Those guys are the ninjas of Worlderos. The assassinate easily and quickly and disappear with just as much speed and ease. We've seen Varys successfully pretending to be all kinds of people, and now we find out he's deadly too. Arya's arc in Braavos is not about girl power in the professional killer industry. We're could be learning about Varys too. I would think he failed to graduate though, which could be why he still uses "mummers' tricks" instead of faces.

My quibble is that I don't recall any notion that Varys has Faceless Man (apparently an unrecognized Jack Vance reference...) training. And, so far as I can recall, Varys is not known for direct action (prior to him putting a crossbow quarrel into Kennith, of course, and of the immediately prior death of Pycelle...)

[Foot_Of_The_King]

6 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I have as little read on how Mace will interact with Lady Nym as how Mathis Rowan would have.

Cersei will not like having the beautiful and scantily-clad Sand Snake taking the male attention from her though. I'm really looking forward to the small council meetings in TWOW.

I'm sure being a bastard and Dornish will be enough to earn the Lords of Reach contempt. 

[Lord Varys]

On 16.9.2017 at 5:37 AM, Wild Bill said:

My quibble is that I don't recall any notion that Varys has Faceless Man (apparently an unrecognized Jack Vance reference...) training. And, so far as I can recall, Varys is not known for direct action (prior to him putting a crossbow quarrel into Kennith, of course, and of the immediately prior death of Pycelle...)

Varys doesn't have to have Faceless Men to be quite deadly. Keep in mind that this man did rise from the gutters - from being a slave - to the very top, and he did that basically as a crime lord. Varys must have killed more than his share of people with his own hands back in the day - both in Myr and in Pentos.

He isn't necessarily the best fighter in town but he should be a very capable and deadly assassin - especially since his public persona comes off as harmless and cowardly.

[Archangel Lucifer]

Cersei will  accuse HIGH SPRArrow

[Leo of House Cartel]

Really does look like everyone will accuse each other, what a shitshow the Spider has woven!

[HallowedMarcus]

On 13/09/2017 at 9:48 PM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Thank you.

I think it will have the opposite effect. Just as Cersei will think the Tyrells had him killed, so with the Faith. And that line of thinking includes her not only being guilty, but her family knowing she's guilty and killing a witness to try and get the trial dismissed.

 Welcome.

  Yes a lot of disbelieve and grudge will come from those two deaths (Kevan and Maester)

 

Cersei will also suspect Dorne once she discovers Mace Tyrell and Lady Nym are lovers - by Ralphis Baratheon

From where that comes from. Not the books.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

23 hours ago, Wild Bill said:

My quibble is that I don't recall any notion that Varys has Faceless Man (apparently an unrecognized Jack Vance reference...) training. And, so far as I can recall, Varys is not known for direct action (prior to him putting a crossbow quarrel into Kennith, of course, and of the immediately prior death of Pycelle...)

There are no direct hints in the text but we've seen him employ certain tricks and talents that seem to correspond rather well to what we see Arya learning, first from Syrio and then at the House of Black and White.

Arya learns to move silently. Varys is so soft of foot that he startles people, coming seemingly out of nowhere.

Arya learns to calm her emotions. Varys never loses his cool.

Arya learns to recognize when people are trying to trick her. Varys always knows when someone's lying or pulling a fast one.

Arya learns to find her way without the use of her eyes. Varys can move about freely with and without torches to light his way--how else did he learn the secrets of the Red Keep? Unless you want to argue he has dragonblood, and I'm fine with that but it shouldn't guarantee flawless navigation of the RK.

Arya learns to pay attention and gather information, even information that may seem trivial. Varys is the ultimate in reading people and gathering secrets. Quite frankly his little birds are trained to do the same things--be silent, be unseen, get around no matter the lighting, gather information. 

Arya's latest phase of training is with a mummer's troupe so she can learn how to change not only her appearance, but her voice, her mannerisms, her very movements. Varys assumes various identities easily, using the very same tricks, and we already know from him that he was with a company of mummers in his youth. He claims the mummers sold him to a man who cut off his parts and threw them in the flames, but what if he's embellishing the tale a bit to disguise part of the truth? The Faceless Men demand all, you must give up all of yourself. It wouldn't be remotely surprising if that included certain body parts for boys, and the ability to have children for girls. If those things are taken away, you are far less likely to compromise your mission due to some romantic nonsense. You will have fully become No One. My guess is Varys decided that was a bridge too far for him and he left before the final graduation.

19 hours ago, Foot_Of_The_King said:

I'm sure being a bastard and Dornish will be enough to earn the Lords of Reach contempt. 

Probably. And I just now noticed how brilliant your username is. 

4 hours ago, HallowedMarcus said:

Cersei will also suspect Dorne once she discovers Mace Tyrell and Lady Nym are lovers - by Ralphis Baratheon

From where that comes from. Not the books.

I think Ralphis was joking.