Was Mace Tyrell simply unbeatable?

[Nihlus]

It's often said that Renly managed to gather an army ninety thousand strong by way of his charisma and political skill. In truth, that had little to do with it. Even his own bannermen that were sworn to him weren't following him wholesale, with it being noted at the beginning of ACOK that many Stormlords were staying neutral due to many not being sure whether to side with Renly, Stannis, or Joffrey. That army he boasted of conquering the Seven Kingdoms with was around 80% composed of men of the Reach, who came because Mace Tyrell told them to come.

Similarly, both in story and in the fandom, either Tyrion or Tywin are often praised for winning the Battle of the Blackwater. Again, this is wrong. Tyrion mismanaged his army into a quick and humiliating defeat and Tywin, on top of only being able to arrive when he did because of Tyrell help, did nothing but sweep the north bank of a few stragglers after the vanguard under Garlan had already pretty much won the battle. This battle was won because fifty thousand Reach soldiers showed up at the order of... again, Mace Tyrell, who opted to use Joffrey to achieve his goals instead of Renly. It's all the same to him.

Then we come to the North and Riverlands. I see a lot of people debating what exact moment was their undoing, with the most commonly cited points being Robb breaking his marriage pact with the Freys and the Ironborn deciding to attack Winterfell and the North's west coast. But neither of these ended up mattering in the end. Why? Because even if Robb kept the Freys and didn't lose Winterfell, he still would've had to cede the Riverlands to Mace's forces and, in the long term, would likely lose the North as well. Randyll Tarly destroying a third of the Northern infantry at Duskendale and then occupying the mostly defenseless Riverlands (subverting several fence-sitting lords in the process) was just a preview of what would come when Mace's army, still near its full strength and now buttressed by the Stormlords due to Renly being dead and Stannis being defeated for the time being, came to put down Robb's rebellion in the name of King Joffrey and Queen Margaery. 

There was one point where Mace could've been defeated: roughly the midpoint of ACOK. If Stannis takes King's Landing due to not being delayed several days by a storm and then annihilates Tywin's qualitatively inferior army on the northern side of the Blackwater later (separated from Mace by a river), or simply heads to Bitterbridge immediately after Renly's death with the majority of the Reach's chivalry behind him, he can very possibly subvert Mace's foot soldiers to his cause. Randyll was partially concerned about this possibility even before Renly died. But failing this specific scenario? It doesn't seem like anything could've stopped Mace's juggernaut. The Reach has close to a hundred thousand troops with the highest qualitative advantage in Westeros as well as a massive fleet, and Mace seemingly had no trouble getting all of these men to follow him bar the upset with Stannis.

So in the end, I have to ask: did any of it actually matter? With the Arryns and and Martells being committed to neutrality, the Greyjoys being in their usual "fuck everyone" mode, and the Lannisters-Starks/Tullys-Baratheons being stuck in a three way war by design no matter who was in charge of those factions (no Lannister would accept Northern secession, and neither would either Baratheon brother), doesn't the whole WOT5K come down to "the king is whoever Mace Tyrell says it is"? Only if all the other feuding factions teamed up against him would he NOT have the most powerful army and the greatest wealth by far, and that was obviously never going to happen.

[Frey Kings]

Having lots of fighting men does make a lot of difference

Being better equipped does make a lot of difference

Being lead by competent commanders makes a lot of difference

 

It really does come down to fighting men in a battle. You can plan as much as you want but field battles last a long time and if you don't have a guy to the left and right of you and you're facing someone that does. Its game over.

[Nihlus]

18 minutes ago, StraightFromAsshai said:

Having lots of fighting men does make a lot of difference

Being better equipped does make a lot of difference

Being lead by competent commanders makes a lot of difference

Mace had all of these things. More men than everyone else, with the highest proportion of heavy cavalry (more than 1/4), and the best equipment (according to Martin, arms and armor get more advanced the further south you go, with the Reach knights having full plate), led by competent commanders such as Randyll.

[Adam Yozza]

Quick note, the Reach doesn't have 100,000 top quality fighting men. Renly's army is about 80,000. 20k are from the Stormlands so 60k from the Reach. Mace raises another 10k from Highgarden and the Redwyne's and Hightower's themselves stay out of it. So that's maybe another 10k between them. Overall about 80k fighting age troops; they are in the top two equipment wise, second wealth wise and first in terms of food production. He also has a set of very good commanders in Randyll Tarly and Mathis Rowan; potentially also Garlan, we'll see.

But no I don't think he was unbeatable. If everything went right for Robb; Jaime wasn't released, the Greyjoy's accepted the offer, he married a Frey and Bolton stayed loyal; and he was fighting only the forces from the Reach (say the Lannisters disbanded their army earlier than they did in canon) then he could do it.

[Frey Kings]

58 minutes ago, Nihlus said:

 he still would've had to cede the Riverlands to Mace's forces and, in the long term, would likely lose the North as well. .

Its still Tywin's problem.

 

Theres not a lot of info regarding the Tyrells and the flowery kingdom to base a opinion. But everything points to him not invading the riverlands/north. I'm pretty sure they knew the fighting was dying done as he correctly predicted that Robb Stark was going to retake Moat Caitlin from the IB.

Mace shows himself a bigger man than Tyrion. Like Tywin, he doesn't need applause. He is happy to give Lord Renly all the glory of leading the vanguard of his vanguard (and wasn't that a master stroke, when it came to reconciling the smallfolk of King's Landing to a queen that was so recently the wife of a traitor).  Mace ensures that Lord Tywin Lannister, as the commander that led the forces, gets full credit for the victory at Blackwater Rush, even if the battle was already decisively won by Mace's vanguard before Tywin's forces made it to the battlefield.

But Mace does care about getting paid. His loyalty comes at an affordable but increasing price. A place on the council, his daughter as queen, his sons as great lords with great lands, his bannermen with coin and titles and honours, great prices for the wayns of food that Highgarden brings to Kings Landing. The roses twine themselves around Kings Landing and the Lannisters, because it is so much easier to besiege your allies than your enemies.

Mace might not want to shed the blood of his own banners for the sake of Northmen right now, but he and his bannermen are very quick to drop the subject of the North almost as soon as it is raised. They don't want Tywin alerted to their scheme, until Willas is married to Sansa and there is nothing their Lannister inlaws can do but agree to such a practical arrangement. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Philokles]

There is a major flaw in this argument - the man Mace Tyrell wanted to be King isn't.

You criticise Renly for not having to work for his huge army, but surely he showed "charisma and political skill" in winning the Tyrells to his cause?

[Adam Yozza]

16 minutes ago, StraightFromAsshai said:

Mace shows himself a bigger man than Tyrion. Like Tywin, he doesn't need applause.

Battle of Ashford kind of shows differently. With the Blackwater it seems more like he was too scared of Tywin to consider taking credit.

[Nihlus]

37 minutes ago, Horse of Kent said:

There is a major flaw in this argument - the man Mace Tyrell wanted to be King isn't.

You criticise Renly for not having to work for his huge army, but surely he showed "charisma and political skill" in winning the Tyrells to his cause?

Because deus ex shadowbaby. He just switched to another guy and made HIM king. Even better for him. Tommen is easier to manipulate than Renly. Mace utterly won, he's the most powerful man in the world right now and only a combination of every other faction going against him + literal magic has a chance of stopping him.

No, he just had the foresight to agree to whatever Mace wanted like his daughter as Queen and himself as Hand. He doesn't need to be charismatic for that. 

[The Drunkard]

It's unlikely but not impossible for him to be defeated in battle by one of the other factions. Major upsets do happen sometimes, and there's also the fact that the larger his army grows, the more immobile and unwieldy it becomes to use. And, with winter coming, a lot of those men will need to be stood down. 

Plus, I don't get the impression his lords are overly loyal. The one time his cause faced a major setback (Renly's death), 80% of his chivalry jumped ship to the man they were just at war with, a man who reputedly holds a grudge against Mace. If Randyll Tarly hadn't acted as quickly as he had in capturing Stannis' envoys and killing those likely to jump ship, Mace may have lost the corresponding infantry as well. 

So, I think one or both of those things had a reasonable chance of defeating him. A smaller but more efficient and better led army could deal him a defeat, and his strength might melt away in the aftermath. 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Paraphrasing Arya here: Anyone can be beaten.

Mace himself is okay but not in the top tier of anyone or anything, unless he's pulling a very successful con that keeps him under everyone's radar. Mace and his men benefited from the circumstances. Yes they had some definite advantages but none of those advantages, even in combination, can guarantee success once you actually get on the field. They weren't exactly alone at the Blackwater. I can't remember did the Tyrell army actually fight anywhere else?

[The Sleeper]

In one sense, well, duh. He has the most men and most resources. He is the designated kingmaker.

In another, deploying them to effect was problematic. At first the Redwyne's were sitting this one out, due to the twins being hostages or possibly lack of interest. This means that with either Stannis's or even Joffrey's fleet guarding the Blackwater he had no clear way to cross the river. Which meant going the long way around.

So, just raising an army and going on a campaign / procession did not guarantee a win. It would take long and bitter fighting to take all the territory. Ironically, after the Shadow baby and Stannis finally becoming an actual threat, the Lannisters were prepared to give him anything he wanted,  with only the need for an easy straight forward battle ahead of him.

You could say that the war served to get him to that point.

[Free Northman Reborn]

The question has been asked many times whether House Tyrell is not over powered in Martin's worldbuilding context. However, they clearly are not, else they would be a far more prominent factor in continental politics, not just now, but historically.

And this goes for House Gardener before them. The supposed 100k army Renly raised really is an anomaly, considering that 55k at the Field of Fire was the largest army in the history of Westeros up to that point. And no army of similar size seems to have been raised between the Field of Fire and Renly's host either, in the intervening 300 years.

After all, if the Storm King, from the rather small, sparsely populated Stormlands was able to conquer all the way up to the Neck, why has no Reach King been able to do that in the past? The Stormlands also have enemies on multiple fronts. They fight Dorne in the South, the massively powerful Reach in the West, and the Riverlands and potentially the Vale in the North and Northeast. Why could the Reach not match the Stormlands' achievements with two or three times their armed strength at House Gardener's disposal?

I think the Reach is not as powerful as portrayed in Renly's scenario. For various reasons. Consider that the Riverlands are said to have weak natural borders. Well, the Reach is even more open and flat than the Riverlands. So most likely they have to rely heavily on large numbers to just compensate for their lack of natural defences. Dorne, the West, the Vale and the North can probably defend with 10,000 men what the Reach needs 30,000 or 40,000 men to do.

And there may be other factors, like independently minded vassals, or perhaps a total strength of closer to 80k rather than 100k, which further reduces their actual strength.

[Nihlus]

25 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The question has been asked many times whether House Tyrell is not over powered in Martin's worldbuilding context. However, they clearly are not, else they would be a far more prominent factor in continental politics, not just now, but historically.

And this goes for House Gardener before them. The supposed 100k army Renly raised really is an anomaly, considering that 55k at the Field of Fire was the largest army in the history of Westeros up to that point. And no army of similar size seems to have been raised between the Field of Fire and Renly's host either, in the intervening 300 years.

After all, if the Storm King, from the rather small, sparsely populated Stormlands was able to conquer all the way up to the Neck, why has no Reach King been able to do that in the past? The Stormlands also have enemies on multiple fronts. They fight Dorne in the South, the massively powerful Reach in the West, and the Riverlands and potentially the Vale in the North and Northeast. Why could the Reach not match the Stormlands' achievements with two or three times their armed strength at House Gardener's disposal?

I think the Reach is not as powerful as portrayed in Renly's scenario. For various reasons. Consider that the Riverlands are said to have weak natural borders. Well, the Reach is even more open and flat than the Riverlands. So most likely they have to rely heavily on large numbers to just compensate for their lack of natural defences. Dorne, the West, the Vale and the North can probably defend with 10,000 men what the Reach needs 30,000 or 40,000 men to do.

And there may be other factors, like independently minded vassals, or perhaps a total strength of closer to 80k rather than 100k, which further reduces their actual strength.

In the aftermath of the Blackwater, Tyrion says Mace has sixty thousand men camped outside of King's Landing, and he presumably has more at home since he later tells Garlan to raise more men. So it's not really an outlier. Especially since Martin himself gave the Reach's total as ~100,000 troops in that 2005 RPG. Mace's Reach is just OP; it has the resources and manpower of medieval France without the massive disunity.

[Free Northman Reborn]

7 minutes ago, Nihlus said:

In the aftermath of the Blackwater, Tyrion says Mace has sixty thousand men camped outside of King's Landing, and he presumably has more at home since he later tells Garlan to raise more men. So it's not really an outlier. Especially since Martin himself gave the Reach's total as ~100,000 troops in that 2005 RPG. Mace's Reach is just OP; it has the resources and manpower of medieval France without the massive disunity.

As I said, I think the answer partly lies in their defensive capability. Which requires a lot of men to compensate for no natural borders. They need to spread their power rather thinly, to cover their borders, compared to lands like Dorne, the West, the Reach or the North.

[Nihlus]

7 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Paraphrasing Arya here: Anyone can be beaten.

Mace himself is okay but not in the top tier of anyone or anything, unless he's pulling a very successful con that keeps him under everyone's radar. Mace and his men benefited from the circumstances. Yes they had some definite advantages but none of those advantages, even in combination, can guarantee success once you actually get on the field. They weren't exactly alone at the Blackwater. I can't remember did the Tyrell army actually fight anywhere else?

They effectively were alone at the Blackwater. Tywin's army was dwarfed by their's and didn't arrive until the battle was mostly over. Tyrion's army had already been routed.

The Reach troops also fought at Duskendale and are currently occupying the Riverlands. Though I don't see why that particularly matters. Mace has just been smart in needing to do little fighting despite possessing the most powerful army by far.

1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

In one sense, well, duh. He has the most men and most resources. He is the designated kingmaker.

In another, deploying them to effect was problematic. At first the Redwyne's were sitting this one out, due to the twins being hostages or possibly lack of interest. This means that with either Stannis's or even Joffrey's fleet guarding the Blackwater he had no clear way to cross the river. Which meant going the long way around.

So, just raising an army and going on a campaign / procession did not guarantee a win. It would take long and bitter fighting to take all the territory. Ironically, after the Shadow baby and Stannis finally becoming an actual threat, the Lannisters were prepared to give him anything he wanted,  with only the need for an easy straight forward battle ahead of him.

You could say that the war served to get him to that point.

That's the thing though, it didn't seem problematic for him at all. He called on ~70,000 of his levies (assuming that Renly managed to squeeze ~20,000 men from his Stormlords even though that region only has 30,000-35,000 and it's stated not all followed him) and gathered them in one place with no real issue. A lot of the other leaders have both political and logistics issues preventing them from sending their full strength on a campaign,* but not Mace. You cite the Redwynes being absent, but they were pretty much the only ones. His army is so powerful that no one else can really hope to best it; or even really offer that significant resistance (long and bitter fighting against who?). 

[Adam Yozza]

7 minutes ago, Nihlus said:

They effectively were alone at the Blackwater. Tywin's army was dwarfed by their's and didn't arrive until the battle was mostly over. Tyrion's army had already been routed.

The Reach troops also fought at Duskendale and are currently occupying the Riverlands. Though I don't see why that particularly matters. Mace has just been smart in needing to do little fighting despite possessing the most powerful army by far.

That's the thing though, it didn't seem problematic for him at all. He called on ~70,000 of his levies (assuming that Renly managed to squeeze ~20,000 men from his Stormlords even though that region only has 30,000-35,000 and it's stated not all followed him) and gathered them in one place with no real issue. You cite the Redwynes being absent, but they were pretty much the only ones. His army is so powerful that no one else can really hope to best it; or even really offer that significant resistance (long and bitter fighting against who?). 

The Hightowers were also absent. They let their vassal's go and fight and for Renly but they themselves did not IIRC.

[Free Northman Reborn]

10 minutes ago, Nihlus said:

They effectively were alone at the Blackwater. Tywin's army was dwarfed by their's and didn't arrive until the battle was mostly over. Tyrion's army had already been routed.

The Reach troops also fought at Duskendale and are currently occupying the Riverlands. Though I don't see why that particularly matters. Mace has just been smart in needing to do little fighting despite possessing the most powerful army by far.

That's the thing though, it didn't seem problematic for him at all. He called on ~70,000 of his levies (assuming that Renly managed to squeeze ~20,000 men from his Stormlords even though that region only has 30,000-35,000 and it's stated not all followed him) and gathered them in one place with no real issue. A lot of the other leaders have both political and logistics issues preventing them from sending their full strength on a campaign,* but not Mace. You cite the Redwynes being absent, but they were pretty much the only ones. His army is so powerful that no one else can really hope to best it; or even really offer that significant resistance (long and bitter fighting against who?). 

I think the Tyrells have gained the most from a united realm.

In ages past, if a Gardener King sent 70,000 of his troops up the Kingsroad , then Dorne would attack Oldtown, the Ironborn would reave up the Mander, the Stormlords would try to carve out some Reach land for themselves or the West would invade. We see it in the text. No army of 55k strong had ever been raised in Westerosi history before the Field of Fire. The Gardeners had therefore never raised an army approaching 50k before. Nevermind 60k or 80k. Clearly if they did so, it would make them vulnerable on another front.

Consider if Tywin had not been at war with the North and Riverlands, 70k Reach troops in King's Landing would have meant Tywin could devastate the entire Western Reach with an invading force of 40-50k men storming down the west coast. And that's without Dorne deciding to get in on the action from the South.

[Nihlus]

8 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I think the Tyrells have gained the most from a united realm.

In ages past, if a Gardener King sent 70,000 of his troops up the Kingsroad , then Dorne would attack Oldtown, the Ironborn would reave up the Mander, the Stormlords would try to carve out some Reach land for themselves or the West would invade. We see it in the text. No army of 55k strong had ever been raised in Westerosi history before the Field of Fire. The Gardeners had therefore never raised an army approaching 50k before. Nevermind 60k or 80k. Clearly if they did so, it would make them vulnerable on another front.

Consider if Tywin had not been at war with the North and Riverlands, 70k Reach troops in King's Landing would have meant Tywin could devastate the entire Western Reach with an invading force of 40-50k men storming down the west coast. And that's without Dorne deciding to get in on the action from the South.

Sure, I'm aware of that; it's why the Reach didn't conquer the continent before the Targs. But this thread is about Mace's position in the WOT5K, where the Westerlands forces are stuck in the Riverlands, the Riverlands are prematurely neutered, the North is locked in an effective stalemate alongside the Riverlands with the Westerlands, Dorne and the Vale are neutral, the Stormlands are divided with most Stormlords being either allied to him or neutral, etc. In the situation that sprung up in AGOT, I don't see how anyone Mace backs can actually lose (bar, again, Stannis subverting his army, which was a fleeting possibility), or what hope any other faction had if Mace decided to side with their enemies.

[devilish]

The Reach is an upgrade version of the Riverlands with the Tyrells being the upgrade version of the Tullys
Strengths

a-    They can raise up around 60k-80k army as opposed to 40k that can be raised by the Riverlands
b-    They have more fertile lands when compared to the Riverlands (and all other regions)
c-    The Tyrells have a better relationship with their bannermen. Similarly to the Tullys they understand the value of marital alliances, however, unlike the Tullys they did their homework and can therefore raise a big army in record time

However they do share the Riverland’s weaknesses
a-    The Tyrells were never kings. That means that they lack the undivided loyalty of their bannermen that other houses like House Arryn or House Lannister have
b-    They have too many borders
c-    They lack the natural defences regions like the Vale and the North has
d-    Their wealth isn’t hidden underground like the Lannisters. Battles and crops rarely mix well together. That may have been the reason why the Tyrells were so ineffective during Robert’s rebellion. Imagine what would happen if the combined army of the Vale, the North, the Riverlands and the Stormlands decided to pitch their battle camp on the Reach fertile lands. 

The war of 5 kings was perfect for them. Early in the game they were able to secure 2 of their 5 borders (Dorne remained neutral). With Tywin eager to stop the Northern co-alition from organizing themselves, the other 2 regions (the Crownlands and the Westerlands) ended up invading the last remaining hostile region (the Riverlands), weakening it further. 

Things could have gone different though.  If Ned survived and was swayed to bend the knee in exchange of a pardon then Tywin would stay in the Riverlands long enough until Edmure bends the knee. The war would then shift in the Reach who would be invaded from multiple fronts (Crownlands, Westerlands and possibly Riverlands and IR) causing mayhem. Many Lords would have to choose between remaining loyal to the former Gardener’s stewards and safeguarding their fields. We all know how persuasive Tywin can be.
 

[The Sleeper]

2 hours ago, Nihlus said:

That's the thing though, it didn't seem problematic for him at all. He called on ~70,000 of his levies (assuming that Renly managed to squeeze ~20,000 men from his Stormlords even though that region only has 30,000-35,000 and it's stated not all followed him) and gathered them in one place with no real issue. A lot of the other leaders have both political and logistics issues preventing them from sending their full strength on a campaign,* but not Mace. You cite the Redwynes being absent, but they were pretty much the only ones. His army is so powerful that no one else can really hope to best it; or even really offer that significant resistance (long and bitter fighting against who?). 

You are conflating the before and after circumsrances.

Before the shadow baby and the Blackwater, Mace and Renly have their troops, no navy and want at least to conquer King's Landing to seat Margaery on the Throne. A river they have no way to cross safely lies in their path, along with Tywin. If they want to subdue Robb who at the time had 35k troops and his homeland secure, they would have to fight him. That means moving holding together and feeding their behemoth of an army through enemy territory. And he would have to undertake at least two serious sieges.

After the shadow baby and the Blackwater, Mace has achieved his objectives. The former enemy is an ally and Robb's kingdom is falling apart. The rest is mop up work, at least as far as the field is concerned.

These are very different sets of circumstances.