Will the Lords care if Aegon is fake?

[Moiraine Sedai]

7 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

JonCon seemed concerned that unless Aegon married Dany his legitimacy would be in question. However, Iam not sure. The Lords didn't seem to care that Tommen was a Lannister incest child. The Targaryens are despised because of the Mad King; JC seems to expect goodwill from him being a Targ. But Mace Tyrell dismisses Dany as being as mad as her father.

I think it's more likely the Lords won't care about his dubious parentage. They will see a powerful Lord who can get rid of Cersei and cut Dany out of the succession.

The only person who will care is Dany herself. She could, probably, live with a relative claiming the throne. But she will destroy a Targ pretender. Worst insult imaginable.

Basically if people wouldn't support Dany for being a Targaryen then why would they care if Aegon is fake? Its weird, GRRM seems to hint at this being important but I can't understand why given how mercenary and fickle the Lords of Westeros are.

Robert claimed his Targaryen heritage as what gave him the right to rule Westeros.  So it is obvious that the Targaryens are not despised.  The Targaryens are seen as the rightful family to have the right and the authority to rule over other nobles and commoners.   The Darrys and the Martells remained loyal and were just waiting for the day when they could throw Robert's ass off the throne.  All Daenerys need do is show up in Westeros with her dragons and the people, noble and common, would give her their support.  She has the "blood of the dragon" look, the most beautiful girl in the world.  She is very charismatic.  I don't think she even needs to bring a large military force to Westeros.  She only need to bring enough for personal protection, and The Unsullied can do that.  The noble houses will provide her with the armies she needs to remove the Baratheon (Lannister) scum from the throne.

Picture a scenario in which Ned Stark had sat on the throne and tried to claim it during the sack of King's Landing.  The result would have been a fierce rebellion against his right to rule, because a Stark would not be seen as having that right.  Robert's rule was accepted because he has Targaryen blood.  So to answer your question:  the lords of Westeros would care whether Aegon is real or not.  He will need to provide proof of his true identity if he wants to be accepted.

On the matter of Joffrey and Tommen.  Stannis was never able to prove that they were not Robert's children.  Also, nobody wanted Stannis ruling over them, so the majority just ignored his smear campaign because they didn't like him.  

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

45 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Guys, you have to keep in mind that nobody really hates the Targaryens. They all love them, and those people who opposed mad Aerys are all dead and gone (aside from the Lannister cripple). The Targaryens are the rightful royal dynasty and they embody and symbolize a glorious and prosperous past, the golden age where there was no continuous civil war and no misrule and rampant corruption. It is not Tywin Lannister - or not only Tywin Lannister - it is Aerys II and his golden Targaryen name that stands for that.

People will want to believe that Rhaegar's golden boy never died and now came back to save them. That is a great story, something they did not hope for in their wildest dreams. And now it happened. Nobody is going to doubt this story - and even if they did, Aegon looks the part, unlike Cersei's children. That's all people need to know to believe it.

Most of the people in Westeros are not cynics. They believe in songs, stories, rumors, legends, and other nonsensical things. If you tell them at a boy looking like a Targaryen is a Targaryen they will believe it.

Now, once Dany arrives things might get more complicated but even a half-wit or lackwit Targaryen pretender could topple kings of the format of Tommen and Stannis. Nobody likes them and scarcely anyone thinks they have a good claim. Rhaegar's son does.

To be sure... They are Targaryen people, and they love House Targaryen well. In holdfasts all across the realm, men lift secret toasts to the health of House Targaryen while women sew dragon banners and hide them against the day of the Targaryen return from across the water. ... Or so my agents tell me. Please pass me that wing from the duck. The one with the honey and grease so I can nibble at the tender meat. 

[BalerionTheCat]

If he is gaining a few castles. If he has the Faith support. If he seems a promise of peace. They will not even question if he is fake or not.

[Lord Varys]

13 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

To be sure... They are Targaryen people, and they love House Targaryen well. In holdfasts all across the realm, men lift secret toasts to the health of House Targaryen while women sew dragon banners and hide them against the day of the Targaryen return from across the water. ... Or so my agents tell me. Please pass me that wing from the duck. The one with the honey and grease so I can nibble at the tender meat. 

Don't you get it? The Targaryens are the royal dynasty of Westeros. Ask your average English friend whether they would want a Windor on the British throne or some Jacobite pretender or - worse still - a German Hanover.

It is true that the smallfolk first cares about their own well-being but who sees to it that the lords don't mistreats them? To whom go they to seek (ultimate) justice? Who makes the sun shine and the crops grow? The king. The Targaryen king on the Iron Throne.

And if you have read the books - which I know you have - then there actually are quite a few people who drink to the health of their rightful monarch. I think you recall the Prologue of AFfC, do you not?

We can discuss whether people would have been willing to support Viserys III against Robert if the man had shown up without a big army of his own, but it is out of the question that half the Realm or more will declare for Rhaegar's son and never ask whether he is the real deal or not.

That is why the fat man and the eunuch are working with this Aegon lad. They would not do that if they had concluded that the Targaryen cause died with Aerys II. And while they can mistakes the chances are very bad that they are mistaken in their assessment of the beliefs and convictions of the majority of the populace of Westeros. Knowing and finding out what people think is Varys' job.

Prince Aegon is Arthur Pendragon returning from Avalon or Frederick Barbarossa returning from Kyffhäuser. People want to believe stuff like that. It is a fairy-tale become reality. A shining beacon of hope amidst the cold nights of winter. That is story so sweet you don't have the sweeten the lie with Arbor gold. In fact, Arbor gold would sour that. Who Aegon truly is simply does not matter. Not to the Golden Company, not the Stormlords, Marcher Lords, Reach lords, sparrows, Poor Fellows, Warrior's Sons, etc. Not truly. Not even the Dornishmen will care. Certain individuals might care. Connington. Arianne, Doran. But they have other, more important goals than the truth. Revenge, Redemption. Power. Aegon son of Rhaegar can give them all that, and more. So they will believe as long as they can. And they are not likely to get any evidences to the contrary in the near future.

[Tyrion1991]

I forgot about the guy randomly toasting Daenerys in AFFC. But this felt more in jest. Which proves that they really don't care either way or view Dany as particularly special. I mean contrast this indifference to the way the freed slaves of Essos regard her. It's night and day.

It's so bizarre how badly structured the series is that you get a scene like that which feels like it's meant to foreshadows Dany coming to Westeros. Yet realistically that will not happen until the end of Winds of Winter in a book written nearlt 15 years after crows. I find it very hard to believe this was GRRM intent. Main reason I didn't like Crows and Dragons. He kept going on about events that don't pan out and aren't going to matter a long, very long time. Essentially Iam tapping my foot waiting for Dany to get to Westeros and GRRM keeps inventing reasons why it's impossible for this to happen and devotes entire chapters just to explain why Dany is unwilling and physically unable to leave Slavers Bay which is apparently like reverse Mordor; one does not simply walk out of it. Oh and then Aegon magics 20,000 men and a fleet from Volantis which gets him there in a few chapters...

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Don't you get it? The Targaryens are the royal dynasty of Westeros. Ask your average English friend whether they would want a Windor on the British throne or some Jacobite pretender or - worse still - a German Hanover.

It is true that the smallfolk first cares about their own well-being but who sees to it that the lords don't mistreats them? To whom go they to seek (ultimate) justice? Who makes the sun shine and the crops grow? The king. The Targaryen king on the Iron Throne.

And if you have read the books - which I know you have - then there actually are quite a few people who drink to the health of their rightful monarch. I think you recall the Prologue of AFfC, do you not?

We can discuss whether people would have been willing to support Viserys III against Robert if the man had shown up without a big army of his own, but it is out of the question that half the Realm or more will declare for Rhaegar's son and never ask whether he is the real deal or not.

That is why the fat man and the eunuch are working with this Aegon lad. They would not do that if they had concluded that the Targaryen cause died with Aerys II. And while they can mistakes the chances are very bad that they are mistaken in their assessment of the beliefs and convictions of the majority of the populace of Westeros. Knowing and finding out what people think is Varys' job.

Prince Aegon is Arthur Pendragon returning from Avalon or Frederick Barbarossa returning from Kyffhäuser. People want to believe stuff like that. It is a fairy-tale become reality. A shining beacon of hope amidst the cold nights of winter. That is story so sweet you don't have the sweeten the lie with Arbor gold. In fact, Arbor gold would sour that. Who Aegon truly is simply does not matter. Not to the Golden Company, not the Stormlords, Marcher Lords, Reach lords, sparrows, Poor Fellows, Warrior's Sons, etc. Not truly. Not even the Dornishmen will care. Certain individuals might care. Connington. Arianne, Doran. But they have other, more important goals than the truth. Revenge, Redemption. Power. Aegon son of Rhaegar can give them all that, and more. So they will believe as long as they can. And they are not likely to get any evidences to the contrary in the near future.

I know... I just couldn't resist.

[Aegon1FanBoy]

Oh course they wouldn't care the Blackfyre rebellion and Dance of Dragons alone showed this. No one cared that there was no proof that daeron wasn't the unworthy's child they made daemon's claim after a dang sword. Hell even though people knew Rhaeynra's first sons were not her husbands they still fought for her. 

[Moiraine Sedai]

15 minutes ago, Aegon1FanBoy said:

Oh course they wouldn't care the Blackfyre rebellion and Dance of Dragons alone showed this. No one cared that there was no proof that daeron wasn't the unworthy's child they made daemon's claim after a dang sword. Hell even though people knew Rhaeynra's first sons were not her husbands they still fought for her. 

They still fought for her and the fact that she is a female did not matter.  The Starks, the Freys, many others supported her claim.  Because the king gets to name his heir and he named her.  The king is the law of the land in the minds of the people.   

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Don't you get it? The Targaryens are the royal dynasty of Westeros. Ask your average English friend whether they would want a Windor on the British throne or some Jacobite pretender or - worse still - a German Hanover.

It is true that the smallfolk first cares about their own well-being but who sees to it that the lords don't mistreats them? To whom go they to seek (ultimate) justice? Who makes the sun shine and the crops grow? The king. The Targaryen king on the Iron Throne.

And if you have read the books - which I know you have - then there actually are quite a few people who drink to the health of their rightful monarch. I think you recall the Prologue of AFfC, do you not?

We can discuss whether people would have been willing to support Viserys III against Robert if the man had shown up without a big army of his own, but it is out of the question that half the Realm or more will declare for Rhaegar's son and never ask whether he is the real deal or not.

That is why the fat man and the eunuch are working with this Aegon lad. They would not do that if they had concluded that the Targaryen cause died with Aerys II. And while they can mistakes the chances are very bad that they are mistaken in their assessment of the beliefs and convictions of the majority of the populace of Westeros. Knowing and finding out what people think is Varys' job.

Prince Aegon is Arthur Pendragon returning from Avalon or Frederick Barbarossa returning from Kyffhäuser. People want to believe stuff like that. It is a fairy-tale become reality. A shining beacon of hope amidst the cold nights of winter. That is story so sweet you don't have the sweeten the lie with Arbor gold. In fact, Arbor gold would sour that. Who Aegon truly is simply does not matter. Not to the Golden Company, not the Stormlords, Marcher Lords, Reach lords, sparrows, Poor Fellows, Warrior's Sons, etc. Not truly. Not even the Dornishmen will care. Certain individuals might care. Connington. Arianne, Doran. But they have other, more important goals than the truth. Revenge, Redemption. Power. Aegon son of Rhaegar can give them all that, and more. So they will believe as long as they can. And they are not likely to get any evidences to the contrary in the near future.

That the people worship the Targaryens is true.  I think they will care whether Aegon is real or not.   Most of them will.  Now, with that in mind, there will be others like Hoster Tully who can be "paid off" to disregard whether he's real or not with a big enough reward.  

[Hodor the Articulate]

Well, just look at how people are already reacting to Aegon. They're all doubtful of this baby swap story. That doesn't mean he won't get support, but it does weaken his claim, particularly when Robert's line still exists, not to mention Dany, who is unquestionably a Targ.

[falcotron]

There may well never be any definitive proof that Aegon is real or fake, at least not for the people in-story. Those who want to support Aegon will convince themselves the baby swap is obviously true; those who want to support Dany/Stannis/Cersei will convince themselves it's ridiculous. And what evidence are they going to find that changes their mind, short of ravens arriving all over Westeros saying "I trolled you all, lol, he's not Aegon. XXX, Illyrio"?

I'd actually love it if there was definitive proof, but nobody found out until after he was dead. Then we'd get to see people reacting to the fact that they fought on the right or wrong side. I think nobles would just shrug and say, "Oh well, Dany pardoned me, bygones are bygones", but a few characters might surprise us, and it could be interesting to see.

[elder brother jonothor dar]

3 hours ago, Aegon1FanBoy said:

No one cared that there was no proof that daeron wasn't the unworthy's child they made daemon's claim after a dang sword

No one cared? Or nobody on team Blackfyre cared?

Rumour was he was not true born his legitimacy was questioned and by his father the King of all people.  Would as many people have taken to rebellion had Daeron been his fathers undisputed heir?

[Wild Bill]

23 hours ago, falcotron said:

There may well never be any definitive proof that Aegon is real or fake, at least not for the people in-story. Those who want to support Aegon will convince themselves the baby swap is obviously true; those who want to support Dany/Stannis/Cersei will convince themselves it's ridiculous. And what evidence are they going to find that changes their mind, short of ravens arriving all over Westeros saying "I trolled you all, lol, he's not Aegon. XXX, Illyrio"?

I'd actually love it if there was definitive proof, but nobody found out until after he was dead. Then we'd get to see people reacting to the fact that they fought on the right or wrong side. I think nobles would just shrug and say, "Oh well, Dany pardoned me, bygones are bygones", but a few characters might surprise us, and it could be interesting to see.

Of course, I am on record that nobody (the Lords) will care one way or another, other than if they stuck their neck out to support a rebellion (or counter they opposed the rebellion) - but we haven't seen any of that at the end of the ADwD. Aegon has just started... (btw, in real history Aegon's counterpart (Perkin Warbeck) had a really, particularly bad, really, really bad result...)

[Morte]

On 8.9.2017 at 11:01 PM, Lord Varys said:

[...]

Prince Aegon is Arthur Pendragon returning from Avalon or Frederick Barbarossa returning from Kyffhäuser. People want to believe stuff like that. It is a fairy-tale become reality. A shining beacon of hope amidst the cold nights of winter. That is story so sweet you don't have the sweeten the lie with Arbor gold. In fact, Arbor gold would sour that. Who Aegon truly is simply does not matter. Not to the Golden Company, not the Stormlords, Marcher Lords, Reach lords, sparrows, Poor Fellows, Warrior's Sons, etc. Not truly. Not even the Dornishmen will care. Certain individuals might care. Connington. Arianne, Doran. But they have other, more important goals than the truth. Revenge, Redemption. Power. Aegon son of Rhaegar can give them all that, and more. So they will believe as long as they can. And they are not likely to get any evidences to the contrary in the near future.

Not Barbarossa, mind you, but his grandson, Fridericus Rex (he himself did not like being called Frederick, so I do him the favor and stick with the right name ), the stupor mundi (Frederick II of Hohenstaufen). It was in the time of Nationalism, when the legend changed from him to his grandfather sleeping under the Kyffhäuser, but that's historian nitpicking.

I just wanted to support your point, as GRRM does take his inspirations from history: During the chaos of the Interregum, and even after that (time of Confessionalism), there were quite a lot of false Fredericks running around the Holy Empire, the last one appeared as late as 1546 - Fridericus died on the 13.12.1250!

So, in times of chaos, at least the (small)folk will flock to even the most unlikely vision of the last one who they remember to care about them - in Westeros with Winter coming, the land being devastated by civil war, and storages empty because of this, they will cheer every Targ coming their way. No matter how likely it may be, that he is real.

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Morte said:

Not Barbarossa, mind you, but his grandson, Fridericus Rex (he himself did not like being called Frederick, so I do him the favor and stick with the right name ), the stupor mundi (Frederick II of Hohenstaufen). It was in the time of Nationalism, when the legend changed from him to his grandfather sleeping under the Kyffhäuser, but that's historian nitpicking.

I know that, but the legend is more publicly known in the more recent version than in the other.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

I just wanted to support your point, as GRRM does take his inspirations from history: During the chaos of the Interregum, and even after that (time of Confessionalism), there were quite a lot of false Fredericks running around the Holy Empire, the last one appeared as late as 1546 - Fridericus died on the 13.12.1250!

This actually a rather interesting sign that the people really would have liked to a have a truly hereditary imperial dynasty running the empire, at least at certain points. It nearly worked a couple of times.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

So, in times of chaos, at least the (small)folk will flock to even the most unlikely vision of the last one who they remember to care about them - in Westeros with Winter coming, the land being devastated by civil war, and storages empty because of this, they will cheer every Targ coming their way. No matter how likely it may be, that he is real.

In that sense, George actually only adds realism to the story in the later parts of the story. With TWoIaF we get the (fake?) bastard kings Trystane and Gaemon, the three pretenders claiming to be Daeron the Daring, etc. when in fact Robert should have been forced to put down another fake Rhaegar and another fake Aerys II during his reign and Roose Bolton's rule in the North should be challenged by a virtual army of fake Rickon and Brandon Starks.

I mean, Henry IV publicly displayed the corpse of Richard II and had still to deal with rumors that the king was still alive and actual impostors that they were Rickard II.

[Lion of the West]

Some lords won't care at all if Aegon is fake or not, and some lords will probably look to jump ship if Aegon turns out to be fake. Most lords who have joined with Aegon will probably see it so that as long as Aegon is moving forward and upward and there' no one else on Team Targaryen to support, they'll keep faith with him. But at first real Targaryen landing on the shores or major setback for the imposter, they'll probably jump ship to save themselves. No reason or glory in making a last stand with an imposter. While those who are opposed to Aegon will probably cement their hostility to him.

[Morte]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Quote

I just wanted to support your point, as GRRM does take his inspirations from history: During the chaos of the Interregum, and even after that (time of Confessionalism), there were quite a lot of false Fredericks running around the Holy Empire, the last one appeared as late as 1546 - Fridericus died on the 13.12.1250!

This actually a rather interesting sign that the people really would have liked to a have a truly hereditary imperial dynasty running the empire, at least at certain points. It nearly worked a couple of times.

Of course. For commons and smallfolk an hereditary dynasty was always better when an Aristocracy or Oligarchy (with or without an elected monarch), as it meant less wars, more stable and less taxes, someone keeping the lords at bay, a law court one could run to, if the lord did wrong one. And because of the more meritocratic and bureaucratic nature of an centralized administration, less corruption.

I always found it very interesting, that the people did not forget even the attempts, and despite the propaganda still understood who and what would have been better for them. [There was a saying, going back to the Medieval Age, translated to English it would be like: "Nobleman to priest: Keep you them dumb, I keep them poor."]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Quote

So, in times of chaos, at least the (small)folk will flock to even the most unlikely vision of the last one who they remember to care about them - in Westeros with Winter coming, the land being devastated by civil war, and storages empty because of this, they will cheer every Targ coming their way. No matter how likely it may be, that he is real.

In that sense, George actually only adds realism to the story in the later parts of the story. With TWoIaF we get the (fake?) bastard kings Trystane and Gaemon, the three pretenders claiming to be Daeron the Daring, etc. when in fact Robert should have been forced to put down another fake Rhaegar and another fake Aerys II during his reign and Roose Bolton's rule in the North should be challenged by a virtual army of fake Rickon and Brandon Starks.

I mean, Henry IV publicly displayed the corpse of Richard II and had still to deal with rumors that the king was still alive and actual impostors that they were Rickard II.

Exatly. The longer he works with the material, the more it becomes a vivid, realistic world (what High Fantasy is normally not).

And yes, we should have at least heard rumours of Rhaegar still alive/baby-Aegon spirited away/etc. in the first book, or at least when the war of the five kings started. George does add a little of this in Feast (thats why i like Feast a lot, btw), with mummers playing puppet theater about the Lannisters and their war crimes/bad rule (even indicating that the stag was murdered by the lion)* - and the dragon hatching and eating the lion; with Flea Bottom calling Cersei's council "the smallest council"; with Jaime remembering that Tyrion found Targ-tapesties back then they travelled North in aGoT, the Broken Men Speech, etc.

And you are right, there should be more people believing Bran and Rickon alive, rumors about them being held captive on the Iron Isles or hiding in some wolfs den, imposters running around, some madman styling himself as Rhaegar etc.

We see similar things happening even as late as the 19. century, then they had to put Napoleon on St. Helena, not only because he could indeed try to come back, but because the rumour of him returning would have been enough to cause turmoil (then more and more people did realize that the Restoration did kill off almost all the rights the French Revolution had won them).

So I think its quite sure that the commons and the smallfolk will flock to the dragon, no matter if the lords think he is false or true, black or red, and so will most of the smaller houses. So a lot of higher houses will also side with him, as long as he is winning, no matter what they thing he truly is.

*To be fair, it already starts in Book 2 & 3, when we hear more often that the people of KL dont love the Lannisters, because they remember the sack, when we hear about the indifference of the smallfolk about who kills and murders them, with Arya and the Hound wandering the Riverlands, etc.

[Lord Varys]

25 minutes ago, Morte said:

Of course. For commons and smallfolk an hereditary dynasty was always better when an Aristocracy or Oligarchy (with or without an elected monarch), as it meant less wars, more stable and less taxes, someone keeping the lords at bay, a law court one could run to, if the lord did wrong one. And because of the more meritocratic and bureaucratic nature of an centralized administration, less corruption.

It seems pretty evident that the smallfolk of Westeros actually knows that Targaryen rule was better for them, especially those living in the domains of the Crownlands. We have stories about the commoners cheering the loudest when Aegon was proclaimed king and although that might be later propaganda the rapid growth and prosperity of King's Landing is evidence that Aegon and his sisters greatly bettered the lives of the people in the region and also allowed many of the smallfolk former under the thumb of other lords to leave their lands and come to their city.

That is not elaborated on in detail but sort of evident in the facts we have.

25 minutes ago, Morte said:

I always found it very interesting, that the people did not forget even the attempts, and despite the propaganda still understood who and what would have been better for them. [There was a saying, going back to the Medieval Age, translated to English it would be like: "Nobleman to priest: Keep you them dumb, I keep them poor."]

Well, being German I know how that saying goes in the original ;-).

Retroactively it is very interesting how historical accidents again and again prevented the establishment of a real imperial dynasty. The Carolingians did it, but the Ottonians and the Staufers got really close.

25 minutes ago, Morte said:

And yes, we should have at least heard rumours of Rhaegar still alive/baby-Aegon spirited away/etc. in the first book, or at least when the war of the five kings started. George does add a little of this in Feast (thats why i like Feast a lot, btw), with mummers playing puppet theater about the Lannisters and their war crimes/bad rule (even indicating that the stag was murdered by the lion)* - and the dragon hatching and eating the lion; with Flea Bottom calling Cersei's council "the smallest council"; with Jaime remembering that Tyrion found Targ-tapesties back then they travelled North in aGoT, the Broken Men Speech, etc.

Even if we assume that Varys is behind the mummer's play there, to help fuel Lannister resentment in the capital, it is evidence to the fact what the people want to believe and what they hope is going to happen. We have hints in that direction since AGoT - the Darry tapestries -, ACoK - the old Riverlander idealizing the times of the old king Aerys - but especially in AFfC/ADwD with Pate's gang toasting Daenerys Stormborn, their true queen, the whores in White Harbor speculating about the fate of Prince Aegon and the other Targaryens, the Crackclaw Point people outing them as 'good Targaryen men', etc.

The people - and lords - of Westeros know who their true rulers are. Even Robert knew that. That's why he was afraid of Viserys III and Dany's sons by Khal Drogo.

With what we know about the Crownlands as being a center of Targaryen loyalists in combination with the hint of the Lannisters being still hated in the city for Lord Tywin's sack - which didn't happen in the all that distant past - it is quite clear that especially the people there will be very ready to believe that a dragon is coming back. 

25 minutes ago, Morte said:

And you are right, there should be more people believing Bran and Rickon alive, rumors about them being held captive on the Iron Isles or hiding in some wolfs den, imposters running around, some madman styling himself as Rhaegar etc.

Yeah, since George really tries to sell us the idea that the Starks are living gods to a good portions of the Northmen. Not all of them, of course, but especially to those close to the Starks. The possibility of a fake Stark comes up when Davos discussed Rickon with Lord Manderly - and it is enacted with Jeyne Poole, of course - but it is odd that no one tried to capitalize on the power vacuum in the North after Winterfell was burned by using a fake Rickon or Brandon as figurehead.

25 minutes ago, Morte said:

So I think its quite sure that the commons and the smallfolk will flock to the dragon, no matter if the lords think he is false or true, black or red, and so will most of the smaller houses. So a lot of higher houses will also side with him, as long as he is winning, no matter what they thing he truly is.

There is a decent share of Targaryen loyalist larger houses, too, apparently especially in the Reach. Lord Mathis Rowan should be the first of those, and his reputation should bring many smaller houses from all across the Realm to Aegon's banner. But then we have the Merryweathers, Peakes, the Crownlander houses - including those sworn to Dragonstone -, the Stormlords, and a lot of houses from the Riverlands, especially those who fought with Rhaegar at the Trident. The most crucial figure there would be Ser Bonifer Hasty who - as a former (would be) lover of Queen Rhaella is not going to bring his Holy Hundred and the houses sworn to Harrenhal (and thus most likely other Riverlords, too) to Aegon but also the Faith itself - assuming the sparrows need encouragement in that department (which they most likely do not, since they are essentially a movement of the commoners). Hasty is likely going to rise very high very quickly among the Warrior's Sons and is going to ensure that the Faith stands firmly at Aegon's side.

25 minutes ago, Morte said:

*To be fair, it already starts in Book 2 & 3, when we hear more often that the people of KL dont love the Lannisters, because they remember the sack, when we hear about the indifference of the smallfolk about who kills and murders them, with Arya and the Hound wandering the Riverlands, etc.

Yeah, but those are smaller and more general hints. People usually ignore that in favor of Ser Jorah's 'wisdom' about what the peasants want - one really wonders how the hell he would know that? It is right that they first and foremost care about their own lives and affairs but when both are threatened by false kings and ambitious/brutal lords then they will turn to what they think will bring them stability. The first step was the Faith and the Faith Militant but the second step will be the old royal dynasty. The new High Septon himself is a commoner, and even he must be aware that the Lannisters and Tyrells are not going to forget or forgive his transgressions. If the Faith Militant and the newly gained power of the Faith are to last they have to strike a deal with a king they can really believe in.

And that's not the abomination Tommen 'Baratheon' but Prince Aegon.

[Lion of the West]

I certainly have no problem with seeing the Crownlanders being pretty pro-Targ with their historical closeness and favor by the Targs as well as the Sack and the Tyrell blockade that are both blamed on the Lannisters, in one case justified and in one case not so justified. The problem is of course that the Crownlanders are not the realm but a small part of it, and most of the realm has not shown any special loyalty to House Targaryen in the past. In fact I'd say they've been pretty ready to go against the Targaryens and in the end it will be the majority of Houses outside the Crownlands who decide who will win the Iron Throne, not by the Crownlanders alone.

Now of course the Targaryens are seen as more favorable at present than the Baratheons due to nostalgic sentimentality for "the good old days" which just so happens to ignore all the unpleasent parts of the Targaryen reign.

[Morte]

33 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Quote

I always found it very interesting, that the people did not forget even the attempts, and despite the propaganda still understood who and what would have been better for them. [There was a saying, going back to the Medieval Age, translated to English it would be like: "Nobleman to priest: Keep you them dumb, I keep them poor."]

Well, being German I know how that saying goes in the original ;-).

Retroactively it is very interesting how historical accidents again and again prevented the establishment of a real imperial dynasty. The Carolingians did it, but the Ottonians and the Staufers got really close.

Had the son not betrayed the father, the Staufer might have been successful. Retrospectively it seems that Heinrich was as able in the Game of Thrones in the long sight, as our good Cersei is.

36 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It seems pretty evident that the smallfolk of Westeros actually knows that Targaryen rule was better for them, especially those living in the domains of the Crownlands. We have stories about the commoners cheering the loudest when Aegon was proclaimed king and although that might be later propaganda the rapid growth and prosperity of King's Landing is evidence that Aegon and his sisters greatly bettered the lives of the people in the region and also allowed many of the smallfolk former under the thumb of other lords to leave their lands and come to their city.

That is not elaborated on in detail but sort of evident in the facts we have.

"Stadtluft macht frei" (urban air makes you free). Asoiaf really is a setting of a feudal culture struggling to reach the Renaissance (and with it absolute monarchy, in the long run).

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Even if we assume that Varys is behind the mummer's play there, to help fuel Lannister resentment in the capital, it is evidence to the fact what the people want to believe and what they hope is going to happen. We have hints in that direction since AGoT - the Darry tapestries -, ACoK - the old Riverlander idealizing the times of the old king Aerys - but especially in AFfC/ADwD with Pate's gang toasting Daenerys Stormborn, their true queen, the whores in White Harbor speculating about the fate of Prince Aegon and the other Targaryens, the Crackclaw Point people outing them as 'good Targaryen men', etc.

The people - and lords - of Westeros know who their true rulers are. Even Robert knew that. That's why he was afraid of Viserys III and Dany's sons by Khal Drogo.

With what we know about the Crownlands as being a center of Targaryen loyalists in combination with the hint of the Lannisters being still hated in the city for Lord Tywin's sack - which didn't happen in the all that distant past - it is quite clear that especially the people there will be very ready to believe that a dragon is coming back. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

There is a decent share of Targaryen loyalist larger houses, too, apparently especially in the Reach. Lord Mathis Rowan should be the first of those, and his reputation should bring many smaller houses from all across the Realm to Aegon's banner. But then we have the Merryweathers, Peakes, the Crownlander houses - including those sworn to Dragonstone -, the Stormlords, and a lot of houses from the Riverlands, especially those who fought with Rhaegar at the Trident. The most crucial figure there would be Ser Bonifer Hasty who - as a former (would be) lover of Queen Rhaella is not going to bring his Holy Hundred and the houses sworn to Harrenhal (and thus most likely other Riverlords, too) to Aegon but also the Faith itself - assuming the sparrows need encouragement in that department (which they most likely do not, since they are essentially a movement of the commoners). Hasty is likely going to rise very high very quickly among the Warrior's Sons and is going to ensure that the Faith stands firmly at Aegon's side.

Good examples! I forgot Hasty and his feelings for Rhaella¹, and there is Blackwood and Darry and many other in the Riverlands as well. And of course the old Valyrian Houses, which will all side with Aegon, surely, as most likely the majority of the Crown Lands. Because of this old loyalty² I also believe that Daenerys will land near the Saltpens (if not sailing even further north), not on Dragonstone (though she will take the isle).

And we should not forget that at this point not even a Blackfish would not say "no" to a Dragon offering him a nice lion pelt against the chill of winter. We could even speculate about the North and Stannis, though i think they will have other things to do, while the Game is running its course down south.

41 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Quote

*To be fair, it already starts in Book 2 & 3, when we hear more often that the people of KL dont love the Lannisters, because they remember the sack, when we hear about the indifference of the smallfolk about who kills and murders them, with Arya and the Hound wandering the Riverlands, etc.

Yeah, but those are smaller and more general hints. People usually ignore that in favor of Ser Jorah's 'wisdom' about what the peasants want - one really wonders how the hell he would know that? It is right that they first and foremost care about their own lives and affairs but when both are threatened by false kings and ambitious/brutal lords then they will turn to what they think will bring them stability. The first step was the Faith and the Faith Militant but the second step will be the old royal dynasty. The new High Septon himself is a commoner, and even he must be aware that the Lannisters and Tyrells are not going to forget or forgive his transgressions. If the Faith Militant and the newly gained power of the Faith are to last they have to strike a deal with a king they can really believe in.

And that's not the abomination Tommen 'Baratheon' but Prince Aegon.

"Abomination" seems to be the right word for that the people think about the Baratheon-children at this moment, Tywin was the only one blind to Jaimes and Cerseis relationship, everybody else knew and knows, but holds still, maybe because Tommen is the only thing that gives a little stability at this moment, but with a true heir, he would no longer be needed to put the swords to rest.

And now imagine that will happen, if Prince Aegon is killed by the usurpers³  and then Daenerys lands with real dragons, telling the story of the real threat being the Long Night.

I firmly no longer believe in a second Dance of Dragons setting, as with a successful Aegon, he and Daenerys would simple wed, so I think he will fail one way or the other, before Daenerys even comes to the Game. And beside: we have a Dance with Dragons going, and its not quite over yet.

 

1) I dont think they were lovers, but they loved each other. And maybe, had Rhaegar put his father aside, Rhaella would have taken the good knight as consort - this theme would fit well with the "missed chances for happiness"-theme for that generation; see: Barristan/Ashara, Ned/Ashara, maybe even Cat/Petry, etc.

2) And space! You have to land all those boats somewhere, Dragonstone does not have a large enough harbour, but the longboats can be stranded.

3) Maybe Cersei does indeed burn down the Sept of Baelor, but during the marriage of Aegon and Marg? We would have a real civil war, people fleeing the city, and Cersei being "queen of the ashes" while everybody else will be on each other throat or would try to find a way to live through the winter. But we will see, its quite sure that the southern plot will end in a disaster for all participants at this moment.

[Sigella]

On 2017-09-08 at 3:47 PM, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

The would assume "Aegon" to be fake from the get go. Only the word from someone like JonCon will be able to convince the high lords that Aegon is really the dead baby. Though the lords might not care how legitimate Faegon is, they wouldn't want to put some base born orphan from Lys on the throne either. The knight's word and an army would help his claim. 

But I think bloodlines matter little at this point. The kingdom is broke, has no proper ruler, and is facing winter (and famine). When Aegon comes claiming to be a ghost from a more prosperous past, people would welcome him. We know that Cersei's reign is not going to end well. Her ignorance of the Iron Bank, arming religious fanatics, relying on unfit creeps like Qyuburn is going to take a heavy toll on everything. This is the sort of chaos Varys hopes to bring Aegon into. He will show up like a cool glass of water on drought ridden land, and lords will welcome him to bring back stability. 

In Dany's vision she sees a mummer's dragon amidst a cheering crowd. So people probably accept him. But him not being a real Targ will matter in the long run. Mainly, Dany has three dragons. The kingdom will never be safe with those dragons out there. When the winter comes, the kingdom will need the dragons too. And we know that no fake can control the dragons. 

 

The smallfolk might cheer but I don't see the lords cheering along. And JonCon... Show spoiler: 

Spoiler

If Jorah took over his part in the show, in some accordance with GRRM's plans for JonCon he might live but he'll have a lengthy stay at the citadel to look forward to.

Given this and his cover-story (exiled drunken dead thief) his word might not be all-cure.

On 2017-09-08 at 3:38 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

If you kill the rich man you can take his gold anyway. Thus he has nothing to offer you. The lord or priest is a question of secular or divine power. However a priest is merely a man who acts in the name of god, he is not a god himself and does not speak for them. So void of other context you follow your lawful king as the law is absolute and he is a divinely anointed King. 

And then he realises that if he kill the king too he'll be king himself?

Answer to the riddle: the man with the sword lives