Will the Lords care if Aegon is fake?

[snow is the man]

Yes but not because he may or may not be rheagars child. Yes that will be a big deal but the lords of westero's still have the belief that they are superior to the peasents because they are nobles and in their mind that is their "birth right" even if it isn't to be heir to a kingdom. The big deal about little griff is noone would know if he was really a peasent or something along those lines. That said if it was clear that griff was winning I doubt that a large number of people would go against him. Later on if he wins and everything is peaceful then it will become an uncomfortable subject but he won't lose his kingdom over it. That said when dany comes over with her dragons I seriously doubt that anyone would go against her after she roasts someone in one battle. So basically no they won't care that he might not be rheagars son but the fact he might just be a peasent will be a big deal I think

[Pikachu101]

Did the Tyrells care that Renly can't crown himself king if he an older brother, or that Joffrey was Robert's bastard? It all comes down to who has the most power and influence, not who has the strongest claim so if Aegon can prove himself to be stronger than the Lannister/Tyrell alliance then I can see Lords siding with him. However, if it comes down to him or the woman with 3 dragons it's a safe to say they'll side with her. Unless of course Aegon can convince Dany to marry him, she's barren and the best way to show your strength is by having an heir; he'll be doing her a favour. 

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Morte said:

Had the son not betrayed the father, the Staufer might have been successful. Retrospectively it seems that Heinrich was as able in the Game of Thrones in the long sight, as our good Cersei is.

Well, those short-lived monarchs/princes, bad decisions, various issues inevitably pile up. The lack of a well-developed and powerful city as a permanent residence helping establishing a proper bureaucracy would also be a major factor.

7 hours ago, Morte said:

"Stadtluft macht frei" (urban air makes you free). Asoiaf really is a setting of a feudal culture struggling to reach the Renaissance (and with it absolute monarchy, in the long run).

I guess we can expect the series to end with some Targaryen monarch with absolute power in charge who then begins enacting those reforms Aegon V with an iron fist, backed by dragonfire. That is the only way this society can creep out of the mud of feudalism. One hopes that the monarchy is going to be overcome eventually, too, but that's not going to happen soon.

7 hours ago, Morte said:

Good examples! I forgot Hasty and his feelings for Rhaella¹, and there is Blackwood and Darry and many other in the Riverlands as well. And of course the old Valyrian Houses, which will all side with Aegon, surely, as most likely the majority of the Crown Lands. Because of this old loyalty² I also believe that Daenerys will land near the Saltpens (if not sailing even further north), not on Dragonstone (though she will take the isle).

Well, I'd not really speculate about all that. That's a long way in the future, and there is a good chance that Dany will be challenged by Euron's armada at sea, possibly preventing her from landing where she wants to land. That is the only good shot her enemies will have at her. Crush her before she gets to Westeros or at least weaken as much as they can.

Oldtown could also be a good place for her to land, especially if she wants information on the Others, etc. which may be found there. Marwyn will be with her, most likely, and Sam might still be there at that point.

Dragonstone should come into play again, one way or another.

7 hours ago, Morte said:

And we should not forget that at this point not even a Blackfish would not say "no" to a Dragon offering him a nice lion pelt against the chill of winter. We could even speculate about the North and Stannis, though i think they will have other things to do, while the Game is running its course down south.

The Riverlords and the outlaws should at least do homage to Aegon on paper and pay lip service to him even if they lack the strength to actually send troops to him. He is the enemy of their enemies - the Lannisters - so he'll inevitably be even the friend of those who fought against Rhaegar at the Trident - but those are only half the Riverlords.

Not to mention that the Riverlords might actually need Aegon's help/friendships should the Lannisters ever marshal another army to retake the Riverlands. Hell, they would even have to cross the Riverlands again if they intended to fight Aegon or the Tyrells.

7 hours ago, Morte said:

"Abomination" seems to be the right word for that the people think about the Baratheon-children at this moment, Tywin was the only one blind to Jaimes and Cerseis relationship, everybody else knew and knows, but holds still, maybe because Tommen is the only thing that gives a little stability at this moment, but with a true heir, he would no longer be needed to put the swords to rest.

They actually talk in such a disrespectful manner about Tommen in AFfC. Remember the sparrows outside the Great Sept? They don't like the incest-born bastard king at all. And they most likely represent the opinion of the majority of the sparrow movement as well as that of the smallfolk at large.

The High Septon used Tommen as a shield against Stannis but with a Targaryen pretender he has a much better looking potential ally. A king he might be willing to accept and respect and who, in turn, could most likely be convinced to confirm the new rights and privileges of the Faith. The new Faith Militant could become a very dangerous weapons in the hands of a union between throne and sept.

7 hours ago, Morte said:

I firmly no longer believe in a second Dance of Dragons setting, as with a successful Aegon, he and Daenerys would simple wed, so I think he will fail one way or the other, before Daenerys even comes to the Game. And beside: we have a Dance with Dragons going, and its not quite over yet.

Well, George has said there will be a Second Dance of the Dragons, and Aegon really seems to be set up to become an adversary of Daenerys. First he goes to Westeros before Dany, then Quentyn is killed, and now Arianne is searching out Aegon, contemplating how nice it would be to be queen and being pissed that Dany had her betrothed Viserys killed.

If Aegon died on the way without ever challenging Dany there would be pretty much no point to his story.

7 hours ago, Morte said:

1) I dont think they were lovers, but they loved each other. And maybe, had Rhaegar put his father aside, Rhaella would have taken the good knight as consort - this theme would fit well with the "missed chances for happiness"-theme for that generation; see: Barristan/Ashara, Ned/Ashara, maybe even Cat/Petry, etc.

Well, it may have been too late for that twenty years later.

7 hours ago, Morte said:

2) And space! You have to land all those boats somewhere, Dragonstone does not have a large enough harbour, but the longboats can be stranded.

If Dany comes with her armada she would most likely target KL directly to prevent a long war and take/kill whoever holds that place at that point. She is not going to land in the vicinity to intentionally drag out the war and risk losing it. That would be utter stupidity. Still, she could be forced to do something like that if she her ships land all across the easter coast of Westeros in the wake of a battle and a huge storm, or something of that sort.

7 hours ago, Morte said:

3) Maybe Cersei does indeed burn down the Sept of Baelor, but during the marriage of Aegon and Marg? We would have a real civil war, people fleeing the city, and Cersei being "queen of the ashes" while everybody else will be on each other throat or would try to find a way to live through the winter. But we will see, its quite sure that the southern plot will end in a disaster for all participants at this moment.

Cersei seems to be set up to eventually end up with Euron. There is no chance that she can regain enough power in the city to try anything massive. She could, perhaps, try to have Ser Robert Strong kill some people but that's it. The city is now firmly in the hands of the Tyrells until they lose (?) they battle(s) with the Golden Company and Aegon's other allies.

And Cersei most certainly is going to fear for her very life - and Tommen's - in the wake of Kevan's murder. She will believe she is next - which means she has to flee sooner rather than later, most likely by ship. Not just from Aegon but also from Mace and Tarly who, in her opinion, might already plot to kill her. Which they actually might. Mace knows that Cersei is behind his daughter's current troubles and he is not going to forgive that. With Kevan gone he has the power to arrange Cersei's death without much difficulty.

[falcotron]

3 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

Did the Tyrells care that Renly can't crown himself king if he an older brother, or that Joffrey was Robert's bastard? It all comes down to who has the most power and influence, not who has the strongest claim so if Aegon can prove himself to be stronger than the Lannister/Tyrell alliance then I can see Lords siding with him. However, if it comes down to him or the woman with 3 dragons it's a safe to say they'll side with her. Unless of course Aegon can convince Dany to marry him, she's barren and the best way to show your strength is by having an heir; he'll be doing her a favour. 

It's not entirely arbitrary. If claims didn't matter at all, the Tyrells could have just crowned Loras instead of marrying Margy to Renly and crowning Renly (and Jon Arryn probably would have been king rather than Robert in the first place).

A claim is not a binary thing; some claims are better than others. It doesn't matter whose claim is best, but it does matter whether each claim is good enough to motivate people to fight for it; only after that does it come down to the diplomatic or military strength of the factions.

Renly's claim does exist. It isn't that good—it rests on Joffrey and his siblings being bastards, and Robert's will being irrelevant because he didn't know they were bastards, and Stannis being unfit to be king. That last bit has only pretty thin precedents (e.g., Aegon V's older siblings and nephews being passed over by the Great Council), but at least it does have some precedent. Just enough to convince other people to ally with the Tyrells.

After that, it comes down to numbers—Renly may not have nearly as good as claim as Stannis's, but it was good enough to convince some people, and he and his allies ended up convincing a lot more people than Stannis, and that's what decides the day. (Except, of course, when shadowbabies decide the day.)

[falcotron]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Cersei seems to be set up to eventually end up with Euron. There is no chance that she can regain enough power in the city to try anything massive. She could, perhaps, try to have Ser Robert Strong kill some people but that's it. The city is now firmly in the hands of the Tyrells until they lose (?) they battle(s) with the Golden Company and Aegon's other allies.

Well, one way the Tyrells could lose the battle with the Golden Company is if they put a good chunk of their strength in Randyll Tarly's hands, and Tarly turns out to be JonConn's friends in the Reach. I don't know what Mace would do in that situation. But the answer probably depends on Margy's predicament more than on the strategic situation.

If, say, Cersei manages to intentionally or unintentionally get Margy killed, Mace's best option might be to get out of Dodge and try to make a separate peace with Aegon, meanwhile trying to save Oldtown to keep his own bannermen on his side.

At that point, Cersei could probably easily take over the city and hold it for a few weeks or months until the siege is lost. Which would be pretty stupid, but this is Cersei we're talking about—and real people have done the same stupid thing (e.g., the Stalinist faction during the Spanish Civil War).

[Wild Bill]

2 hours ago, falcotron said:

Well, one way the Tyrells could lose the battle with the Golden Company is if they put a good chunk of their strength in Randyll Tarly's hands, and Tarly turns out to be JonConn's friends in the Reach. I don't know what Mace would do in that situation. But the answer probably depends on Margy's predicament more than on the strategic situation.

Skipping back to the historical analog of fAegon, Perkin Warbeck, who was really pathetic in his armed attempts at claiming "his crown". In the books, fAegon has the Golden Company and the Griff, which is a lot more than Perkin had.

Then there are a lot of Yorkist's ready to rebel against Henry VII. Depending on where GRRM is in his interpretation of this (if he is doing it at all), the Tyrells do seem ready to "adapt" to the situation, but as you say, dependent on Margaery's situation at the moment.

But... forgive the newbie, what is JonCon, and why does that effect Tarly? [the real reason I posted...]

Cheers

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 minutes ago, Wild Bill said:

Skipping back to the historical analog of fAegon, Perkin Warbeck, who was really pathetic in his armed attempts at claiming "his crown". In the books, fAegon has the Golden Company and the Griff, which is a lot more than Perkin had.

Then there are a lot of Yorkist's ready to rebel against Henry VII. Depending on where GRRM is in his interpretation of this (if he is doing it at all), the Tyrells do seem ready to "adapt" to the situation, but as you say, dependent on Margaery's situation at the moment.

But... forgive the newbie, what is JonCon, and why does that effect Tarly? [the real reason I posted...]

Cheers

JonCon is Jon Connington. Have you read Arianne's spoiler chapters from Winds? 

[Wild Bill]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

JonCon is Jon Connington. Have you read Arianne's spoiler chapters from Winds? 

Ahh, stupid, stupid, stupid me... retrospectively obvious. 

I've only read Mercy's chapter. Maybe I'll take a stroll through the other chapters available...

[falcotron]

20 minutes ago, Wild Bill said:

Skipping back to the historical analog of fAegon, Perkin Warbeck, who was really pathetic in his armed attempts at claiming "his crown". In the books, fAegon has the Golden Company and the Griff, which is a lot more than Perkin had.

Then there are a lot of Yorkist's ready to rebel against Henry VII. Depending on where GRRM is in his interpretation of this (if he is doing it at all), the Tyrells do seem ready to "adapt" to the situation, but as you say, dependent on Margaery's situation at the moment.

But... forgive the newbie, what is JonCon, and why does that effect Tarly? [the real reason I posted...]

I think you're reading the WotR parallel way too closely. Surely you don't see Tommen as Henry VII, an outsider who came in from Dorne/Wales and defeated Robb Stark/York, who'd locked up the real Aegon and his brother in a tower so he could sit the Iron Throne, right? The stories are mixed up and spread out, and fAegon is the best match for Henry VII, despite also being the best match for Perkin Warbeck. (What's really fun is that the Lannisters actually get more of the York plotlines than the Starks, despite the obvious naming inspiration.)

Anyway, the main reason I don't see Mace Tyrell actually turning to fAegon, at least not right off the bat, is that the war would be over before it begins, making the cliffhanger anticlimactic, and in-universe making Varys's assassinations pointless. On the other extreme, if Jon's friends in the Reach are someone useless, or someone powerful but tied up with Euron like the Hightowers or Redwynes, what's the point? Meanwhile, reread the epilogue of ADwD, and maybe the two Cersei chapters, and you can see why Randyll Tarly would be an ideal character for the story to flip.

As Lost Melnibonean implies, the TWoW spoilers do reinforce that idea. I'm pretty sure it was the leading fan theory even before then, or at least my personal favorite, but I could be misleading myself; it wouldn't be the first time.

[Wild Bill]

20 minutes ago, falcotron said:

I think you're reading the WotR parallel way too closely. Surely you don't see Tommen as Henry VII, an outsider who came in from Dorne/Wales and defeated Robb Stark/York, who'd locked up the real Aegon and his brother in a tower so he could sit the Iron Throne, right? The stories are mixed up and spread out, and fAegon is the best match for Henry VII, despite also being the best match for Perkin Warbeck. (What's really fun is that the Lannisters actually get more of the York plotlines than the Starks, despite the obvious naming inspiration.)

Anyway, the main reason I don't see Mace Tyrell actually turning to fAegon, at least not right off the bat, is that the war would be over before it begins, making the cliffhanger anticlimactic, and in-universe making Varys's assassinations pointless. On the other extreme, if Jon's friends in the Reach are someone useless, or someone powerful but tied up with Euron like the Hightowers or Redwynes, what's the point? Meanwhile, reread the epilogue of ADwD, and maybe the two Cersei chapters, and you can see why Randyll Tarly would be an ideal character for the story to flip.

As Lost Melnibonean implies, the TWoW spoilers do reinforce that idea. I'm pretty sure it was the leading fan theory even before then, or at least my personal favorite, but I could be misleading myself; it wouldn't be the first time.

Hmm...

There was a wonderful wargame in the 1970's - Kingmaker - about the Wars of the Roses. A principle lessen of the game is of real politik in how you played the game, and the value of having a Royal person in your "possession", because the game dynamics were of folk like Warwick, the King Maker, being much more important than the lineage of a king or a pretender..

Wait a second, aren't Bran and Rickon the Princes in the Tower? And Tommen is... the PTWP (Henry VII)... Apparently intending to over-throw the evil regime (of Joffery). Confused...

[falcotron]

34 minutes ago, Wild Bill said:

Wait a second, aren't Bran and Rickon the Princes in the Tower? And Tommen is... the PTWP (Henry VII)... Apparently intending to over-throw the evil regime (of Joffery). Confused...

Well, if you've got a good crackpot on how Tommen was behind overthrowing Joffrey, I think we definitely all need to read it.

But then he should have married Elizabeth of York, not Anne Neville, and the best candidate for that is… The sister of the Princes in the Tower, Sansa? Or the daughter of Edward IV, which I guess is either Mya Stone or Dany? Or the niece of Richard III, which is… nobody, but there is at least a female cousin, Joffrey's uncle Jaime's daughter Myrcella? The last one kind of works if it unites the old claims with the Welsh/Dornish Tudor claims, I suppose, but only after a gender swap. I confess that some of my confusion may be caused by the TV show casting Anne Boleyn as Anne Neville, but I think it was already confusing in the books.

[Morte]

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, those short-lived monarchs/princes, bad decisions, various issues inevitably pile up. The lack of a well-developed and powerful city as a permanent residence helping establishing a proper bureaucracy would also be a major factor.

That's why it did work in Sicilly, but was much harder to achieve in the german territories.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I guess we can expect the series to end with some Targaryen monarch with absolute power in charge who then begins enacting those reforms Aegon V with an iron fist, backed by dragonfire. That is the only way this society can creep out of the mud of feudalism. One hopes that the monarchy is going to be overcome eventually, too, but that's not going to happen soon.

Agree. The feudalistic side being weakened after the long war and winter will help even further with this, but dragons would be a realistic (in world) reason why the reforms would be "accepted" this time.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, George has said there will be a Second Dance of the Dragons, and Aegon really seems to be set up to become an adversary of Daenerys. First he goes to Westeros before Dany, then Quentyn is killed, and now Arianne is searching out Aegon, contemplating how nice it would be to be queen and being pissed that Dany had her betrothed Viserys killed.

If Aegon died on the way without ever challenging Dany there would be pretty much no point to his story.

Then he better hurry to bring Daenerys to Westeros; but maybe the second Dance would be after the dealing with the Others? It all depends on where Dany will be heading, and how long the "fight" with the Others will be (I dont believe in a complete victory, but a return to the status quo of them returning to the Land of Always Winter). And how long it does take to make the preparations for the Dance to work out in the south.

It would of course also fit the theme of Arianne thwarting with her fathers long-time plans (i think Doran will be much more cautious about Aegon then most of the other lords, because he is, who he is. )

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If Dany comes with her armada she would most likely target KL directly to prevent a long war and take/kill whoever holds that place at that point. She is not going to land in the vicinity to intentionally drag out the war and risk losing it. That would be utter stupidity. Still, she could be forced to do something like that if she her ships land all across the easter coast of Westeros in the wake of a battle and a huge storm, or something of that sort.

If she comes to take part in the Game, yes. But we do not know when she will arrive and what she will want to do first (save the realm to win the throne or win the throne to save the realm?). It will all depend on what all the people heading to her will tell her, what she will believe of this and when she will move to Westeros.

And yes, she has to move fast, as the sea will be even more dangerous to navigate in winter then in autumn. And we dont know if she will start from Slaver Bay, or if she will first go north to the free cities (She will most likely at least make a "visit" at Volantis... Easteros is a damn knot! Gnarf.)

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Cersei seems to be set up to eventually end up with Euron. There is no chance that she can regain enough power in the city to try anything massive. She could, perhaps, try to have Ser Robert Strong kill some people but that's it. The city is now firmly in the hands of the Tyrells until they lose (?) they battle(s) with the Golden Company and Aegon's other allies.

And Cersei most certainly is going to fear for her very life - and Tommen's - in the wake of Kevan's murder. She will believe she is next - which means she has to flee sooner rather than later, most likely by ship. Not just from Aegon but also from Mace and Tarly who, in her opinion, might already plot to kill her. Which they actually might. Mace knows that Cersei is behind his daughter's current troubles and he is not going to forgive that. With Kevan gone he has the power to arrange Cersei's death without much difficulty.

Well, being paranoid doesnt mean they are not hunting you, does it?

And while i think that falcotron could be right with Cersei taking KL as hostage:

7 hours ago, falcotron said:

Well, one way the Tyrells could lose the battle with the Golden Company is if they put a good chunk of their strength in Randyll Tarly's hands, and Tarly turns out to be JonConn's friends in the Reach. I don't know what Mace would do in that situation. But the answer probably depends on Margy's predicament more than on the strategic situation.

If, say, Cersei manages to intentionally or unintentionally get Margy killed, Mace's best option might be to get out of Dodge and try to make a separate peace with Aegon, meanwhile trying to save Oldtown to keep his own bannermen on his side.

At that point, Cersei could probably easily take over the city and hold it for a few weeks or months until the siege is lost. Which would be pretty stupid, but this is Cersei we're talking about—and real people have done the same stupid thing (e.g., the Stalinist faction during the Spanish Civil War).

I dont see how this could work at this very moment, as she would need men for this, whose she lacks. But it could well be possible, but with Civil War inside the city (the Faith and the Commons). And of course it would be very stupid, but not ooc for Cersei. And for this she would indeed need Euron (Ironbound in the city... Oh joy!).

 

Oh the whole aspect of Asoiaf being heavily inspired by the War of the Roses and other historical events (like the Hundred Years' War): The characters are mixed between the different houses of Westeros, as are the plotlines. We even have archetypes from different times thrown together, so while we can make guesses from history toward the ending of the books, i dont think we can simply state that York=Stark and Lancaster=Lannister, as for example Tyrion is more and more worked into an "Robert Dudley, 1. Earl of Leicester".

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, falcotron said:

Well, one way the Tyrells could lose the battle with the Golden Company is if they put a good chunk of their strength in Randyll Tarly's hands, and Tarly turns out to be JonConn's friends in the Reach. I don't know what Mace would do in that situation. But the answer probably depends on Margy's predicament more than on the strategic situation.

Jon Connington has no friends in the Reach. Those Peakes in the Golden Company claim they have such friends - which is likely going to refer to their cousin, Lord Titus Peake who is married to one Margot Lannister. Another good candidate is Lord Merryweather who - perhaps alongside his late father - may have served with the Golden Company during the days of his exile.

Tarly is very unlikely to betray Mace and Tommen. The man is no schemer, and he can grasp much more power and wealth as one of the men running Tommen's government than he could when he joined Aegon. He is already a man grown and while he might reward Tarly he would be forced to reward the men of the Golden Company - and the Dornishmen and Stormlords joining him first - even more.

Tarly (and Mace, too) could end up in camp Aegon if they were captured after a battle, etc. but I doubt they will defect before a battle. But what could happen is that the Reach men and lesser lords/knights who are supposed to fight against the Targaryen pretender refuse to do so, resulting in Tarly/Mace confronting the Golden Company with their pants down. Allegiance to House Targaryen is supposed to be very strong in the Reach.

Now, it could also be that they use the elephants to their advantage to defeat a Tyrell host greatly outnumbering them - or simply the professionalism of the Golden Company will win the day. They are experienced veterans and soldiers who fought in dozens or hundreds of battles - something most of the Tyrell men did not.

9 hours ago, falcotron said:

If, say, Cersei manages to intentionally or unintentionally get Margy killed, Mace's best option might be to get out of Dodge and try to make a separate peace with Aegon, meanwhile trying to save Oldtown to keep his own bannermen on his side.

Willas and Garlan are already raising men in the Reach. Mace doesn't have to come to their aid since the Reach is indeed strong enough to fight at two fronts at the same time. And without any ships he wouldn't be of any help down there, anyway. 

The status of Margaery's marriage to Tommen - and Tommen's life itself - seem to be much more important there. If Tommen died or Cersei fled the city with him Mace would be without a royal son-in-law. That could quickly force him into Aegon's camp.

9 hours ago, falcotron said:

At that point, Cersei could probably easily take over the city and hold it for a few weeks or months until the siege is lost. Which would be pretty stupid, but this is Cersei we're talking about—and real people have done the same stupid thing (e.g., the Stalinist faction during the Spanish Civil War).

Cersei doesn't have the men. And Mace is not likely to send all his 30,000-40,000 men against the Golden Company. Perhaps half of them, or even less. He should still be able to stay in control of the Red Keep and keep the peace in the city with 15,000-20,000 men - although things could get troublesome with the sparrows and the Faith Militant.

But Cersei has only a few hundred guardsmen. She doesn't even have the City Watch anymore. On the surface the Tyrells should run the city now while in truth Varys should have long ago began to put the real power in the City Watch and other important factions in the city into the hands of die-hard Targaryen loyalists. The first of those we met might have been Ser Jacelyn Bywater, the Lord Commander of the City Watch he suggested to Tyrion. But Varys wouldn't have stopped there. The fact that the new Lord Commander of the City Watch Tommen named - this fellow Ser Humfrey Waters - is the former captain of the Dragon Gate might be quite telling in this regard.

[falcotron]

42 minutes ago, Morte said:

I dont see how this could work at this very moment, as she would need men for this, whose she lacks. But it could well be possible, but with Civil War inside the city (the Faith and the Commons).

I'm now imagining a series of Cersei PoV chapters where we see her take advantage of that civil war by turning herself into a populist leader to defeat the Faith and then prepare the defenses against Aegon, who's coming to re-impose the iron fist of monarchy and tyranny. Things turn more and more into a glorious people's revolutionary struggle, with Cersei as their unlikely hero. And at the end of the last one, Aegon shows up, and the battle is about to begin.

Then, for the next chapter, we switch to JonConn's PoV, and see that the city is in chaos and there are virtually no defenses at all. Some of the people were humoring Cersei for a while because she'd clearly gone mad and it was great entertainment, but it stopped being fun when they started running out of food, and they're ready to surrender immediately, please.

[Morte]

8 minutes ago, falcotron said:

I'm now imagining a series of Cersei PoV chapters where we see her take advantage of that civil war by turning herself into a populist leader to defeat the Faith and then prepare the defenses against Aegon, who's coming to re-impose the iron fist of monarchy and tyranny. Things turn more and more into a glorious people's revolutionary struggle, with Cersei as their unlikely hero. And at the end of the last one, Aegon shows up, and the battle is about to begin.

Then, for the next chapter, we switch to JonConn's PoV, and see that the city is in chaos and there are virtually no defenses at all. Some of the people were humoring Cersei for a while because she'd clearly gone mad and it was great entertainment, but it stopped being fun when they started running out of food, and they're ready to surrender immediately, please.

This would be great to read. Add the revelation that in her madness she did something to kill Tommen (maybe by "keeping him safe" somewhere, locked up, but in her madness she forgot food and water?), and we would be one step further in her self-fulfilling prophesy.

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Morte said:

Agree. The feudalistic side being weakened after the long war and winter will help even further with this, but dragons would be a realistic (in world) reason why the reforms would be "accepted" this time.

Not just that, but chances are that the people leading the fight against the Others - and winning the war - will already be more or less worshiped as living gods by the people during that war. This is going to be a very challenging fight and not something that could be won without a clear-cut chain of command and complete and obedience on the part of the people executing those plans.

If there are any cautious Walder Freys, Roose Boltons, and Tywin Lannisters around who command parts of the army contemplating how the losses of of one of their lordly peers could strengthen their own position they would all be doomed before they even began their campaign against the Others.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

Then he better hurry to bring Daenerys to Westeros; but maybe the second Dance would be after the dealing with the Others? It all depends on where Dany will be heading, and how long the "fight" with the Others will be (I dont believe in a complete victory, but a return to the status quo of them returning to the Land of Always Winter). And how long it does take to make the preparations for the Dance to work out in the south.

I guess the fall of the Wall, etc. could cut short the Second Dance, but I think we'll get a fight between Dany and Aegon prior to the fight against the Others. Euron and Cersei might come back to haunt the survivors of the fight against the Others. I assume Dany is going to break Euron's strength at sea with her own armada (at high cost) but he'll survive and perhaps get a chance to regroup. Euron-Cersei seem the perfect candidates to play a Saruman-like role in this story at the very end.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

It would of course also fit the theme of Arianne thwarting with her fathers long-time plans (i think Doran will be much more cautious about Aegon then most of the other lords, because he is, who he is. )

Yeah, but he has sent her in his stead to assess Aegon. It will be Arianne's call whether Dorne supports Aegon or not, not Doran's. And once the news about the Hizdahr marriage and Dany's alleged death in the pit/disappearance arrives in Dorne/Westeros Aegon will appear as their only bet anyway. Dany is not going to marry both this Hizdahr chap and Quentyn - and the news about Quentyn's own death (which should arrive sometime later still) is going to seal the deal. After that, Arianne is not going to like Daenerys.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

If she comes to take part in the Game, yes. But we do not know when she will arrive and what she will want to do first (save the realm to win the throne or win the throne to save the realm?). It will all depend on what all the people heading to her will tell her, what she will believe of this and when she will move to Westeros.

I guess she might come as a savior to Westeros, intending to save the people both from false king and from the Others - about who she must know something at this point - and I don't think she is going to want to fight Aegon. She might even send envoys to him before she crosses the Narrow Sea (dragonriders should make that task very easy) but if Aegon ends up rising to the Iron Throne very fast and very successfully neither he nor the people around him who raise to power and influence through will be very inclined to share power. That is going to cause trouble because Dany is not exactly going to come alone.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

And yes, she has to move fast, as the sea will be even more dangerous to navigate in winter then in autumn. And we dont know if she will start from Slaver Bay, or if she will first go north to the free cities (She will most likely at least make a "visit" at Volantis... Easteros is a damn knot! Gnarf.)

Well, I guess we can see her continue her conquest of Essos and the Free Cities with the help of the Dothraki in TWoW. Depending how large the book will be we could see her on her way to the western coast by then but she is not likely going to get farther west than Volantis by that point.

Aegon should be on the Iron Throne by the end of the next book, though.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

Well, being paranoid doesnt mean they are not hunting you, does it?

And while i think that falcotron could be right with Cersei taking KL as hostage:

I dont see how this could work at this very moment, as she would need men for this, whose she lacks. But it could well be possible, but with Civil War inside the city (the Faith and the Commons). And of course it would be very stupid, but not ooc for Cersei. And for this she would indeed need Euron (Ironbound in the city... Oh joy!).

I don't think Euron is going to come to the city now. I find it more likely Cersei is going to meet him on the Arbor after she flees KL by ship. There they can marry and then she can continue her journey to Casterly Rock to raise troops there - which she could then send to Euron's aid by or they could plan a pincer movement on KL with Euron attacking from the sea and Cersei's forces by land. A plan that could be ruined by Dany's move west which could delay Euron and/or force him to deal with her first. He could find a lot of willing allies against Dany in the Three Daughters considering that they are not likely going to be keen to abolish slavery - and unlike Volantis Myr, Tyrosh, and Lys keep their armies and navies in their own hands - or that of sellswords and sellsails - rather than the hands of slave soldiers (as the Volantenes do). That could allow them to crush any slave uprisings and actually prepare for Dany's eventual attack.

[Lord Varys]

22 minutes ago, falcotron said:

I'm now imagining a series of Cersei PoV chapters where we see her take advantage of that civil war by turning herself into a populist leader to defeat the Faith and then prepare the defenses against Aegon, who's coming to re-impose the iron fist of monarchy and tyranny. Things turn more and more into a glorious people's revolutionary struggle, with Cersei as their unlikely hero. And at the end of the last one, Aegon shows up, and the battle is about to begin.

Then, for the next chapter, we switch to JonConn's PoV, and see that the city is in chaos and there are virtually no defenses at all. Some of the people were humoring Cersei for a while because she'd clearly gone mad and it was great entertainment, but it stopped being fun when they started running out of food, and they're ready to surrender immediately, please.

That would be a very unlikely setting considering that the Kingslanders hate the Lannisters and Cersei with a passion (for the Sack) and now they must have lost all respect and fear for her, too, in the wake of her march through the streets.

Cersei as a populist leader is about as likely as Stannis getting charismatic all of a sudden.

Still, if Mace and the High Septon make a succession of bumbling mistakes Cersei could still remain alive and free even after her trials. People might underestimate her. But if the city descends into chaos it is not likely going to have anything to do with her.

And we have to keep in mind her trial-by-combat. There is so much potential there for it backfire on her. I mean, sure, Ser Robert is going to win - but what if his true identity and nature are revealed during the fighting? What will people say if they know for a certainty that Gregor Clegane is not only not dead but actually an undead creature kept moving by foul black magic? What's the High Septon going to say about that? Would Cersei not trying to cheat the Seven if she uses a 'man' who cannot be killed to defend her innocence and honor?

Usually, a trial-by-combat is a judgment of the Seven, but the High Septon speaks for the Seven on earth, so if he thinks there was foul play involved in the trial that could very well result in Cersei being declared guilty even if her champion has technically won the combat. And that would also result in Tommen losing his crown and him and Myrcella being declared bastards - a very efficient and easy way to ensure that Aegon is going to ascend the throne.

[Morte]

54 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Not just that, but chances are that the people leading the fight against the Others - and winning the war - will already be more or less worshiped as living gods by the people during that war. This is going to be a very challenging fight and not something that could be won without a clear-cut chain of command and complete and obedience on the part of the people executing those plans.

If there are any cautious Walder Freys, Roose Boltons, and Tywin Lannisters around who command parts of the army contemplating how the losses of of one of their lordly peers could strengthen their own position they would all be doomed before they even began their campaign against the Others.

Quote

True. Whoever held the iron chair warm for them will most likely have to move his or her ass quick (if the matter is not settled before the fight against the Others).

For the chain of command there are some formidable field commanders in the books, some of them will end up with "team fight-the-others". And of course the three heads of the dragon.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I guess the fall of the Wall, etc. could cut short the Second Dance, but I think we'll get a fight between Dany and Aegon prior to the fight against the Others. Euron and Cersei might come back to haunt the survivors of the fight against the Others. I assume Dany is going to break Euron's strength at sea with her own armada (at high cost) but he'll survive and perhaps get a chance to regroup. Euron-Cersei seem the perfect candidates to play a Saruman-like role in this story at the very end.

Hm. That could indeed work out well (maybe even a little funny, as funny as it could get at this point, anyway ).

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I guess she might come as a savior to Westeros, intending to save the people both from false king and from the Others - about who she must know something at this point - and I don't think she is going to want to fight Aegon. She might even send envoys to him before she crosses the Narrow Sea (dragonriders should make that task very easy) but if Aegon ends up rising to the Iron Throne very fast and very successfully neither he nor the people around him who raise to power and influence through will be very inclined to share power. That is going to cause trouble because Dany is not exactly going to come alone.

I dont think anyone in the south will take the thread of the Others serious until the dead rise there as well, so if Dany would come as late as this (and it looks that way), than there will be trouble and battle, but she will surprise Aegon and the southern lords by turning north - maybe after a grim battle of Dragonstone (we need the eggs! aehm dragon glass!) - just like everybody was afraid of Stannis coming for LK from Dragonstone, but then he turned south for Renly. Dany will turn north, for the Others.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, I guess we can see her continue her conquest of Essos and the Free Cities with the help of the Dothraki in TWoW. Depending how large the book will be we could see her on her way to the western coast by then but she is not likely going to get farther west than Volantis by that point.

Volantis will be the least of all problems left behind in Essos, as it seems to me that the slaves of Volantis already have an underground organisation going, so the shift of powers and the abolishment of slavery will be rather smooth here (albeit bloody, of course).

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon should be on the Iron Throne by the end of the next book, though.

Aye.

And Dany moving to Westeros (not landing, but the start of the journey would be a nice last POV in Essos), if he really wants to finish in two books and none of them being about 2000 pages thick.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think Euron is going to come to the city now. I find it more likely Cersei is going to meet him on the Arbor after she flees KL by ship. There they can marry and then she can continue her journey to Casterly Rock to raise troops there - which she could then send to Euron's aid by or they could plan a pincer movement on KL with Euron attacking from the sea and Cersei's forces by land. A plan that could be ruined by Dany's move west which could delay Euron and/or force him to deal with her first. He could find a lot of willing allies against Dany in the Three Daughters considering that they are not likely going to be keen to abolish slavery - and unlike Volantis Myr, Tyrosh, and Lys keep their armies and navies in their own hands - or that of sellswords and sellsails - rather than the hands of slave soldiers (as the Volantenes do). That could allow them to crush any slave uprisings and actually prepare for Dany's eventual attack.

Something like this could be the southern plot, yes. But Tyrosh just sounds too much like Tyros, so i see her fall.

[The Lord of the Crossing]

The question really is, whether being real or not will be enough to get support from the lords and ladies.  The answer to that is NO.  There will be many factors to consider before they would choose to support Aegon.  It's not just whether he's real or not. 

The direct answer is YES they will care whether he's real or not.  That is one factor.  Can he win is another important factor.  No one wants to support the losing side. 

Are the people weary and tired of Baratheon rule?  Obviously they are.  The war between the Lannisters and the Starks brought ruin to Westeros.  It never got this bad under the Targaryens.  The people know by now that they had it better under Targaryen rule than what they have now.  

I would like to see Daenerys ruling on the Iron Throne with Aegon as her consort.  Maybe there will be a joining of the Targaryen and Blackfyre line of the family in the future.  A marriage alliance between Dany and Aegon. 

[Pikachu101]

11 hours ago, falcotron said:

It's not entirely arbitrary. If claims didn't matter at all, the Tyrells could have just crowned Loras instead of marrying Margy to Renly and crowning Renly (and Jon Arryn probably would have been king rather than Robert in the first place).

True but (f)Aegon does have a supposed claim like Renly and Robert, what I'm saying is would lords try to look into if he really is who he claims to be.

14 hours ago, falcotron said:

A claim is not a binary thing; some claims are better than others. It doesn't matter whose claim is best, but it does matter whether each claim is good enough to motivate people to fight for it; only after that does it come down to the diplomatic or military strength of the factions.

Which is also why I brought into question would they choose him over his aunt who has three dragons behind her, my guess is no.