Will the Lords care if Aegon is fake?

[300 H&H Magnum]

Sure they will care.  But they won't be eager to start a war over it. 

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Morte said:

For the chain of command there are some formidable field commanders in the books, some of them will end up with "team fight-the-others". And of course the three heads of the dragon.

Yeah, but these people really have to be in charge then. Else things are going to hell. And they have to know or quickly learn how to win such a war. Else the cold and the wights will deal with them.

7 hours ago, Morte said:

I dont think anyone in the south will take the thread of the Others serious until the dead rise there as well, so if Dany would come as late as this (and it looks that way), than there will be trouble and battle, but she will surprise Aegon and the southern lords by turning north - maybe after a grim battle of Dragonstone (we need the eggs! aehm dragon glass!) - just like everybody was afraid of Stannis coming for LK from Dragonstone, but then he turned south for Renly. Dany will turn north, for the Others.

I think there is a chance that Aegon will have knowledge of the Others, too. Jon and Stannis would be brain dead if they didn't try to convince the people in the South about the common enemy after they have dealt with the Boltons. And Rhaegar believed his son Aegon was the promised prince. If some people remember that he might take it upon himself to save the Realm from the Others. Or at least try. Part of the Second Dance could also be about who is better qualified dealing with the Others. It would be stupidity but that doesn't mean they won't steep to that level.

7 hours ago, Morte said:

Volantis will be the least of all problems left behind in Essos, as it seems to me that the slaves of Volantis already have an underground organisation going, so the shift of powers and the abolishment of slavery will be rather smooth here (albeit bloody, of course).

Sure, but Dany is still likely going to go there since Moqorro and the tiger soldiers are going to expect that of her. I don't think she'll actually have to free the slaves there, of course. The widow of the waterfront, Benerro, and the slaves can do that all by themselves.

7 hours ago, Morte said:

And Dany moving to Westeros (not landing, but the start of the journey would be a nice last POV in Essos), if he really wants to finish in two books and none of them being about 2000 pages thick.

Well, trying to guess the story on the basis of the whole two books idea makes no sense. If George intended to wrap up things there wouldn't be an Aegon, a Euron, a new High Septon, or an anti-slavery or Dothraki plot for Daenerys. He could just have given Dany Aegon's plot in ADwD.

And if you think about the Others and winter then we have to have at least one book where the cold and horror of winter are actually felt by the characters, a book where hope is truly lost after the Wall has fallen. But the Wall didn't fall at the end of ADwD. Which is the reason why the TWoW we are going to get won't be that book. Which means it should be at least 2-4 books.

My guesstimates about the number of Dany chapters in TWoW - perhaps seven if we consider the amount of POVs we are going to see there - has even trouble to get her as far as Volantis if we keep in mind that she is not likely to recruit the Dothraki just in one chapter - that should be 2-3 chapters, and then she might first go to Qarth and/or Slaver's Bay before setting out to Volantis. Not to mention that she has to be convinced to go to Westeros now. Winter is a bad time for warfare, especially in Westeros. If it is just the Iron Throne Westeros could wait. And the Dothraki and the red priests are most likely not so keen to see her depart to Westeros all of a sudden.

7 hours ago, Morte said:

Something like this could be the southern plot, yes. But Tyrosh just sounds too much like Tyros, so i see her fall.

Sure, after their fleets are broken by Dany she is most likely going to take them. Myr should fall easily enough - as should Qohor, Norvos, and Pentos - since they are on the mainland and thus helpless against Dothraki khalasars.

[Morte]

27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, but these people really have to be in charge then. Else things are going to hell. And they have to know or quickly learn how to win such a war. Else the cold and the wights will deal with them.

And they need as many fast and skilled archers as they can (Dothraki) and the dragons, because they have to limit melee combat as much as possible.

31 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And if you think about the Others and winter then we have to have at least one book where the cold and horror of winter are actually felt by the characters, a book where hope is truly lost after the Wall has fallen. But the Wall didn't fall at the end of ADwD. Which is the reason why the TWoW we are going to get won't be that book. Which means it should be at least 2-4 books.

 

I think at least one of the last two books will be divided into part one and two, both with ~1000 pages. Or Martin has to come up with new book titles (how about: "A Tempest in Autumn"?).

37 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

My guesstimates about the number of Dany chapters in TWoW - perhaps seven if we consider the amount of POVs we are going to see there - has even trouble to get her as far as Volantis if we keep in mind that she is not likely to recruit the Dothraki just in one chapter - that should be 2-3 chapters, and then she might first go to Qarth and/or Slaver's Bay before setting out to Volantis. Not to mention that she has to be convinced to go to Westeros now. Winter is a bad time for warfare, especially in Westeros. If it is just the Iron Throne Westeros could wait. And the Dothraki and the red priests are most likely not so keen to see her depart to Westeros all of a sudden.

Thats why i think she will be the rescue squat, with the Westerosi forces in retreat - but this scenario would put the second dance in the dream of spring (still winter, but the Others are going home and dead things stay dead). If everybody important for this question does survive until this point, just when it will start to matter if Aegon could be real or not. At the moment we are now, and with Dany still reorganizing Essos, he will be seen as the best chance for a true heir, at least as long as he is winning.

But, as Martin is a Gardener, we can not be sure if all his ideas survive till the end.

[Wild Bill]

20 hours ago, falcotron said:

jWell, if you've got a good crackpot on how Tommen was behind overthrowing Joffrey, I think we definitely all need to read it.

But then he should have married Elizabeth of York, not Anne Neville, and the best candidate for that is… The sister of the Princes in the Tower, Sansa? Or the daughter of Edward IV, which I guess is either Mya Stone or Dany? Or the niece of Richard III, which is… nobody, but there is at least a female cousin, Joffrey's uncle Jaime's daughter Myrcella? The last one kind of works if it unites the old claims with the Welsh/Dornish Tudor claims, I suppose, but only after a gender swap. I confess that some of my confusion may be caused by the TV show casting Anne Boleyn as Anne Neville, but I think it was already confusing in the books.

Well... Since you mention it, Bran wargs Tommen, and they find common cause in their hate of their parents, and Bran shows Tommen "the way". Tommen uses his, new found, abilities to warg Margaret of Burgundy (GRRM) to replace Rhaegar (doesn't matter which one, but it is best with the last, who, in turn had a surprising birth (the union of Margaret of Anjou and my father)). Tommen and Bran then plot out the insidious and incestuous marriage of Tyrion (Edward IV) and Sansa (Richard III), and Cercei's, mature, love for Ser Jorah, with the odd threesome with Barriston Selmy, and the occasional foursome with Dany, when she is feeling especially frisky.

Meanwhile Perkin Warbeck Bronn, jollys Lollys (Tywin), and we all feel good about that.

Sadly Arya, first of her name, executes them all, with a particularly creepy death to the Blackfish(Henry V) and Shea (Jean D'arc). I don't have the words for what follows...

...

Oops, I neglected to add a  or a  to my prior post...

[Wild Bill]

On 9/10/2017 at 9:17 PM, falcotron said:

Well, one way the Tyrells could lose the battle with the Golden Company is if they put a good chunk of their strength in Randyll Tarly's hands, and Tarly turns out to be JonConn's friends in the Reach. I don't know what Mace would do in that situation. But the answer probably depends on Margy's predicament more than on the strategic situation.

If, say, Cersei manages to intentionally or unintentionally get Margy killed, Mace's best option might be to get out of Dodge and try to make a separate peace with Aegon, meanwhile trying to save Oldtown to keep his own bannermen on his side.

At that point, Cersei could probably easily take over the city and hold it for a few weeks or months until the siege is lost. Which would be pretty stupid, but this is Cersei we're talking about—and real people have done the same stupid thing (e.g., the Stalinist faction during the Spanish Civil War).

To be more serious than my last post. I think the Tyrells are the only folk in play. The Starks are done, The Lannisters are the enemy, the Tullys (are there anymore Tullys at this point?), the Martells are self absorbed (and have spent their wad on Quentin). The Iron Born don't count, since, well, they are iron born.

So, Cercei, with her adviser, Queron (Machiavelli, though a rather pathetic version compared to OTL)  I would like to see Cersei managing a defense of Kingslanding without Tyrion...