Tyrion's army at the Blackwater

[Nihlus]

It's known that Tyrion's host at the Battle of the Blackwater included the following:

-2,000 city watchmen, well equipped and according to Tyrion, "seasoned" and "reliable."

-3,700 newly recruited city watchmen, considered unreliable.

-800 professional mercenaries.

-300 knights, squires, and men-at-arms

-"Hundreds" of spitfires (ballistae) and scorpions, presumably manned by hundreds of engineers.

-150 mountain clansmen, presumably still in possession of the mounts and high quality armor and weapons Tywin gave them

This puts his known forces at ~7,200, roughly. I have some questions on the lesser known elements of his army. Were any of the following clarified?

*Tyrion states that he was able to get houses Stokeworth and Rosby to send troops to King's Landing to help out. Is it ever indicated how many they sent, or their composition?

*How well equipped were the goldcloaks? The initial 2,000 sound very well equipped, with mail armor and helmets, as well as spears and dirks, and others using crossbows with the officers having access to plate armor and longswords with even some mounted lancers. But what about the newly recruited ones? Cersei ordered the smiths to construct mail armor and other equipment for them but Tyrion halted that order.

*Those 300 knight equivalents; where did they come from? They can't be Lannister men-at-arms, since Tyrion sent the remaining Lannister men to rescue Jaime. They can't be Stokeworths or Rosbys, since Tyrion only gets them to the cause later in the same chapter where he gives the 300 figure. Who sent them?

*There are supposed to be several Crownlands houses sworn directly to the Iron Throne; Rosby and Stokeworth are not among them. Did they send any men? Did they join Stannis? Where are they?

On top of the army Tyrion also had a rather significant fleet of ~70 ships:

-45 royal war galleys  (half the royal fleet minus the five Tyrion sent to escort Myrcella)

-"Dozens" of commandeered civilian trader ships (presumably carracks, cogs, and such; used as fireships)

-"Swarms" of smaller vessels for distributing wildfire like skiffs, hulls, barges, and rowboats.

While not as cryptic as the army, I too wonder a few things about the fleet:

*How many men were needed to man it? Davos storms one of the Lannister ships and finds it's pretty much fully crewed; nothing seems off and they're able to engage in a convincing naval battle. Note that, if Victarion's battles in the Shields are any indication, 1/10 of the crewmen would be armored marines.

*It seems the average Westerosi war galleys dips 100 oars, at 1 man per oar. Tyrion sent his biggest ship, King Robert's Hammer, with Myrcella. Did all of his remaining ships dip only 100 oars or did he have bigger ones of 200 or even 300 oars?

*Who did Tyrion get to man the fireships? Did he just draft random peasants for a suicide mission en masse? 

[Wild Bill]

12 minutes ago, Nihlus said:

*Who did Tyrion get to man the fireships? Did he just draft random peasants for a suicide mission en masse? 

I'll only reply to this bit. There is no need to man a fireship once you get it going in the river current or tide, you then abandon ship and get the hell away asap. Only a minimal crew is required.

[Nyrhex]

1. How did you get 3,700 of the City Watch to be the new ones? I figure the 300 men that Littlefinger takes would be from the old ones.

2. "Hundreds of Scorpions" was before Tyrion diverted efforts and funds to his chain. Same with arming the new recruits, it is likely to have not come about. 

3. No mention of Rosby/Stokeworth composition aside of Rosby being fresh levies, and Stokeworth sending a "small troop of soldiers" with Falyse.

4. It is unlikely that the new recruits would be properly armed and armored considering that Tyrion explicitly orders the works on that front to halt until his chain is ready, which was only completed a couple days before Stannis arrived. Probably had to do with spares from the existing stock, and what they could improvise/what the smiths could manage in limited amount of spare time/material while working on the chain.

5. 320 knights, 20 go with Littlefinger and 300 Watchmen, plus 20 squires. No information where they come from. Could be greater Crownlands area, could be knightly class that reside in King's Landing and have thier estates elsewhere in the Crownlands. Could be hedge knights. Could be leftover knights from elsewhere who got stuck here at the start of warfare the same way as Balon Swann, Beric Dondarrion and the Redwyne Twins.

6. Not much is known of the other houses, and it is likely that the closer to the border with war zones, the lords were more concerned with keeping their forces close at hand, especially when he learn that some of those houses were raided by Lannisters all the same when they needed supplies, and with the Northmen posing a threat later on with the march on Duskendale, etc. A knight of house Harte is known to have taken part in the battle on the Lannister side, but that's about all.

7. I don't think there were "dozens" of captured ships. Tyrion meets with a dozen captains, including a Baavosi one, who are angry at the capture of thier ships. Behind the line of warships of the Royal Fleet Davos sees the swarm of smaller ships, including everything from rowboats to Cersei's pleasure barge. The fire ships were not captured carracks and cogs, they were rotten hulks. If anything the captains are of the ferries and wherries, with only the Braavosi a question mark.

8. The Shield Islands are not the example, those were patrol longships with a local militia that Victarion was fighting. The war galleys of the Royal Fleet are overwhelmingly using 100 oars, with one man per oar, which comes out as ~4,500 oarsmen. The closest historical examples would give these type of ships additional crew and marines to be ~20 per ship, so add another ~900 men. So a total manpower of ~5,400-5,500 men. Considering that fewer than 12 ships remain including the 5 sent to Dorne, the Lannisters lost ~38 ships. Being right at the center of the wildfire inferno, likely few survived. Casualties would be around ~4,000-4,500 men, not counting how many hundreds more were on the swarm of smaller ships, which were also smack in the center of it all and with little chance to escape. Almost as many as Stannis lost, though roughly the same number of fighting men*.

We have no information on any other ship dipping more than 100 oars remaining in King's Landing, and only 4 in Stannis' half of the fleet (Fury with 300 oars took the center of the first line of battle, flanked by Lord Steffon with 200 oars, and Stag of the Sea with 200 oars. Swordfish took the center of the second line and also had 200 oars).

9. Could have sworn I've read about him promising rewards to a picked few to get the ships into position before swimming away, but can't find where. Could be that I remember it from somewhere else.

 

 

 

* Of the ~60 war galleys in the first three lines of Stannis' fleet, 30-40 managed to get upstream from the wildfire. At least 8 of the rest beached on the north bank. Even lowballing, that's 38 ships that were not lost, limiting this portion to at most 22x120=2,640 (but let's round that up to ~3,000 with Fury being full to bursting with men and Swordfish being a 200). "a good many" of the Myrish contingent further back managed to beach on the south bank. A bit more vague than the earlier 30-40 of the first two lines. The Myrish contingent was smaller than the first three lines, which makes it smaller than 60 ships. Saan has ~30 ships, of those 25 galleys. Say the Myrish contingent was between these two figures for ~40-45? "a good many" of those would be half? Third? Quarter? Half or more of the first three lines managed to evade the Wildfire, one would assume the same ratio at least with the Myrish contingent beaching on the south bank. None of those ships dipped more than 80 oars, but let's round the total crews on average up to ~100 per Myrish galley, and add ~2,000 to the lower end of the casualty potential. 

That leaves the sail ships, who would have far smaller crews of a couple dozen. Times ~70 sail ships you'd add ~1,500-2,000 crewmen. Though again, being further downstream means more men had a chance to swim away. So at most Stannis might have lost around ~7,000 men, though likely closer to 5,000-5,500 men from the wildfire. 

[Lion of the West]

I think the 300 knights are simply the household guard of King Joffrey. I don't think for a second that there were not Baratheon men-at-arms and knights under King Robert present in the Red Keep during Robert's reign, and it seems to me that most of these would have kept faith with Joffrey, with little choice in the matter anyway given their location.

[Nyrhex]

Something like these two?

Quote

And later these two brothers came before him, freeriders from the Dornish Marches, and pledged their swords to the service of the king. Father accepted their oaths …

Though for some reason there is zero mentioning of any household knights or guards in the king's service aside of the City Watch and the Kingsguard. Renly was confidant he could gather a hundred men, but those were mainly of people who came for the Hand's Tourney and lingered. Ned considers that he has to have the City Watch and his household troops vs Cersei and her Lannister guardsmen, and the Kingsguard.

Not a word on 300 household knights in Robert's service. Not even a tenth of that ever appears, and the two freeriders from the Dornish Marches are never mentioned again.

[Nihlus]

10 hours ago, Nyrhex said:

-snip-

1. I figured most of the men Tyrion sent out would be the ones who wouldn't be of much use in combat, since he needs every man he can get.

2. The construction of these weapons had been going on long before Tyrion arrived, and they were being produced by the hundred. Tyrion also seemed to think the spitfires and scorpions were a good idea. I don't think he stopped their production, especially since he later specifically instructs Bywater to train men in the use of spitfires with clay pots from the alchemists guild. Even if he did immediately stop these efforts, which I don't think he did, the fact that they were already being built in such great numbers means a fair few were likely already completed- a couple hundred at least.

3. I actually remembered two tidbits relating to this. One, Lord Rosby was physically present in the city, meaning he likely has the bulk of his forces with him, unless he's an idiot, since he's clearly all-in for the defense of the city. Two, that levy was said to include spearmen; granted that's not much to go on. Tyrion also tells Lady Stokeworth to bring "as many men as she has." Lady Stokeworth is also physically present. So both of these houses probably have most of what they can muster in KL.

How much can they muster? They're lords, it should be a decent number. Lord Alyn Stokeworth was important enough to be Hand of the King after all, while a Rosby was effective Warden of the South a couple hundred years back. It's hard to say if that indicates much though.

4. I was thinking about this; I think the new recruits might be properly equipped specifically because there's only four thousand of them. A city of half a million people can definitely spare more than six thousand men for war when the city is under attack; that implies that they only had four thousand new recruits because of lack of equipment, not lack of warm bodies.

6. Where is it stated the Lannisters raided them for supplies? You'd figure that they'd defend themselves in that case, the mainland Crownlords should be able to raise a decent amount of men (Martin's numbers in that 2005 RPG say 10,000-15,000). 

7. Medieval wherries and ferries are not ships, they're boats. Tyrion refers to the confiscated vessels as ships, and one of the captains who's given as an example came all the way from Braavos, implying he has a seaworthy vessel for long voyages. They're probably trade cogs and carracks much like the ones Stannis commandeered at Dragonstone.

8. The ship Victarion stormed did not sound like a regular longship;. Regardless, they're still the only numbers on ship crew composition that we're ever given. 1/10 of the crew is marines on the ships Victarion storms.

Also where are you getting the proportion of 20 crewmen for every 100 oarsmen? I've seen numbers on this forum for the crew of a 100-oar ship ranging anywhere from 120 to 250, usually without citations. Would be nice to have it nailed down.

[Nyrhex]

2 hours ago, Nihlus said:

-snip-

1. Those men would also be the least presentable, and Littlefinger wanted an extra 20 knights purely to put on a show that he is more than a guy with a miserable tower and a couple of servants. Seems unlikely.

2. By the time Tyrion arrives at he city, the construction of those weapons was at most going on for a couple of months if Cersei saw Joffrey cut off Ned's head, then ran to tell the smiths and carpenters to start building scorpions. But that is assuming that she started fearing war on several fronts from the get go. Up to that point they still thought war could be avoided if Ned takes the Black. News of the defeat of Jaime's host and of Renly's coronation only arrives after Ned's execution. The work clearly began shortly before Tyrion arrives, maybe a couple of weeks, and Tyrion quickly kills the work for over half a year to work on his chain. Seems unlikely that they managed to pump out too many of the weapons.

3. Rosby left the city with Tommen, was ambushed by Tyrion's agents, and went back home with them and without Blount. Bywater comes back with Rosby's fresh levies. And Stokeworth has a "small troop of soldiers" with her when she arrives in the city. Neither house is said to be able to field many men, so we don't even have anything to compare these figures to, but "fresh levies recruited from Lord Gyles' estates" and "a small troop of soldiers" doesn't sound like a significant force.

And lords are lords. The Stormlands have over 30 lords, and are usually estimated as having ~30,000 troops. If every lord is equal, they can all raise ~1,000 men, and they can all raise only ~1,000 men. And then how do you explain someone like Dondarrion leading ~4,800 men to the Red Mountains? Those ~30 lords include great lords and major lords and petty lords. Some can raise 1,000 men, some can raise more, some can raise fewer. Same in the Crownlands. 

Add to that the fact that most need to keep men to defend themselves from all factions, and it is little wonder that they are not too keen on sending all of their men to the city.

4. The armors and weapons were explicitly said to be for the new men that were raised. The fact that they could only scrounge up 4,000 men is both bad world-building on Martin's part, the crown being strapped for cash, struggling to even feed the city (half the City Watch were sent hunting...), and little loved. The Antler Men find a few hundreds that they arm out of pocket, because all they had to do was open a gate for the large army on the other side. There was still manpower, but they couldn't manage to raise them even before Tyrion cuts spending on arming and armoring the new recruits. 

6. When Jaime is at the Hayfords, they say that while they were spared, a vassal house of thiers, House Hogg, was raided by Amory Lurch's men. 

Also, the RPG figures are semi-canon for a reason, they are next to worthless. I keep seeing people use them but they fail to hold to any real attempt to mapping out military figures. 

7. We see no cogs or carracks on the Lannister side in the battle at any point. I know the difference between the ships, and I intentionally made a point to mention the odd Braavosi, I wasn't trying to hide him. But there is simply nothing to indicate that there were merchant ships on the Lannister side anywhere in the battle. There is nothing in the books that ever mentions such trade ships.

8. No ship sounds like a regular ship that the name implies, they are all loosly based on how Martin thinks ships are like. Davos is lucky he didn't go under with the ship he rammed because that's not how you ram. For that matter, it's not clear why the Royal Fleet is using ramming galleys when they can use other ships that Westerosi use that are practically immune to the tactic and can offer them clear advantages over anything the ramming galley can possibly offer. Tycho brings a galleas, a ship type that is notably different from merchant galleys of the period because it has significant gunpowder artilley. In a setting lacking those, the ship would look nothing alike what the name implies, it was simply used because Braavos is loosely based on 16th century Venice. It's especially irritating when they mention in universe some of the flaws of going with X ship against Y ship, but refuse to ask "why don't we, like, just copy those ships?". The same issue comes up when Martin makes a mish-mash of different time periods, cultures, and has a weak grasp any of these matters to begin with.

The ships Victarion attacks are named by Victarion as longships, and Victarion makes a clear difference between longships and war galleys.

Quote

By then his ironborn had followed him down onto the deck of the broken longship.

Quote

In the distance, half a dozen of southron longships were racing back toward the Mander

Quote

Warhorns would echo across the waters, from Greenshield and Greyshield, Oakenshield and Southshield, and their longships would come sliding out from moss-covered stone pens along the shores, oars flashing as they swarmed across the straits to seal the Mander and hound and harry the raiders upriver to their doom.

Quote

"The Crow's Eye sends us forth to face the longships, whilst his own men take the castles and the villages and grab all the loot and women. What has he left for us?"

Mallister has 6 longships and 2 war galleys, the longship is the mainland's coastal patrol ship. 

[Lion of the West]

8 hours ago, Nyrhex said:

Something like these two?

Though for some reason there is zero mentioning of any household knights or guards in the king's service aside of the City Watch and the Kingsguard. Renly was confidant he could gather a hundred men, but those were mainly of people who came for the Hand's Tourney and lingered. Ned considers that he has to have the City Watch and his household troops vs Cersei and her Lannister guardsmen, and the Kingsguard.

Not a word on 300 household knights in Robert's service. Not even a tenth of that ever appears, and the two freeriders from the Dornish Marches are never mentioned again.

Yeah, something like those. There are some scattered references to men in Joffrey's livery so I agree that there's lack of info. Perhaps something which someone could ask GRRM about at some point?