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(Spoilers) - The War makes no sense


Tyrion1991

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I would like to return to the central assertion of this thread.

Back at the beginning of things, the OP claimed that the war made no sense and presented a number of facts and subsidiary assertions to support the main assertion. We have discussed many issues, most with at least a tangential relationship to the original post. Quite a bit of debate now, however, concerns criticism of LotR, the origin of the Night King, etc. 

It is clear to me that posters on this thread come from different backgrounds and use different standards when evaluating fiction. You might think that GoT is great. You might think that GoT is schlock. You might think that the show fits somewhere in between those two extremes. Unless, however, you maintain that Season 7 is tremendous, a work of near perfection, you should acknowledge that some of the criticism on this thread is valid. Some items that I think are of particular relevance:

  • Daenerys and her friends/allies/advisers are implausibly stupid. This isn’t the only reason for Cersei’s success, but it accounts for a large percentage of said success.
  • Cersei didn’t just kill a High Septon. She destroyed one of the central institutions of the Seven Kingdoms. The reaction of everyone, aristocrats and commoners, amounts to something like “Ho, hum. No more Vatican. No more papacy. No big deal. Let’s move on to more important things.”  This is nonsense. 
  • A considerable gathering of the lords of the Reach meets with Cersei in the throne room. For some reason, none of them appears to be troubled by the destruction of another institution, the Kingsguard. The Thing That Once Was Gregor doesn’t bother them much, perhaps not at all. The lords also accept the assurance of Ser Creep of the Torture Chamber that the crown is working on a plan to deal with the dragons. Then these lords go marching across a continent. They have somehow forgotten about a pivotal event in their history, the Field of Fire. They are not worried by the fact that the untested anti-dragon weapon is packed up in a wooden wagon. This is despite the fact that they must know that dragons can fly fast and shoot powerful flames down upon an unfortunate enemy. 

There is a good deal more. Nothing I’ve read, on this thread or elsewhere, comes close to dealing with these matters. The acting, the dialogue, the action scenes, and a many other things in Season 7 could be fine. That doesn’t take away the problems. So, we get back to the fundamental issue. It can be covered with a simple question and a simple answer:   

Question: Does the war make sense?

Answer: No. 

 

I’ll give another example or two of why I think “No” is absolutely the right answer in an upcoming thread or two.

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When I try to think of a way to make Cersei a credible threat at all, I'm left with a couple of possibilities:

1. She escapes and goes into hiding and sends out Frankengregor to capture eople and then either torturess them or holds them ransom, or both.

2. More or less the same thing, only with Euron. Euron's really the only card she has. And possibly Jaime, but htat's a whole other can of worms. Euron creates a fleet improbably quickly and the rapidity with which he deploys it is equally improbable; but at least he actually has a kind of motive to support her ("Yara" and Theon support Dany), and he wouldn't care about bombing the Vatican.

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10 minutes ago, Count Balerion said:

When I try to think of a way to make Cersei a credible threat at all, I'm left with a couple of possibilities:

1. She escapes and goes into hiding and sends out Frankengregor to capture eople and then either torturess them or holds them ransom, or both.

2. More or less the same thing, only with Euron. Euron's really the only card she has. And possibly Jaime, but htat's a whole other can of worms. Euron creates a fleet improbably quickly and the rapidity with which he deploys it is equally improbable; but at least he actually has a kind of motive to support her ("Yara" and Theon support Dany), and he wouldn't care about bombing the Vatican.

As a Mildly creative guy, I thought I could do better. 

Nope. 

That's all I got too. I mean, I could go the show route, but when I am restricted to things that can make sense I am left with her relying on Euron. Which means she becomes the ousted wanna be queen on the Iron Islands and essentially nothing but a minor annoyance. 

She really shouldn't be sitting on that Throne. 

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On 23.09.2017 at 4:58 AM, darmody said:

When she recruits people, and gives them the "Join or Die" ultimatum, what happens if they pick "die?" The birds kill them, Qyburn uses their bodies for Science, and no one notices they're missing?

How does she know they won't say, "Okay," then run and tell Kevan, Olestra, the Sparrow, or whomever? You can say it's a calculated risk, like she took recruiting people in previous seasons. But back then, her fellow players--Littlefinger, Varys, Tyrion, Ned, etc.--knew she was playing.

As I already wrote, and repeat again -

On 23.09.2017 at 4:58 AM, darmody said:

Of course she didn't just went to any of them directly, and just blatantly said to them - "Bend the knee to me, or die". No. She used her spy network to carefully tread political waters in Red Keep's court. And after Birds gathered enough information, to make an approximate layout of who is who in her surroundings, she and Qyburn decided to whom should they make a job offer.

They approached only those people about whom they were 1000% sure that they will support Cersei. Before making actual offer, they gathered information about them, and to those that were interesting to Cersei, she assigned little spies to watch their every move.

Also don't forget that Cersei lived for over 20 years in King's Landing and was part of royal court, and 15+ out of them she was a Queen. She KNOWS all courtiers, all government officials, she knew them for years.

She watched how their behaviour towards her, changed over time:

1. when she was daughter of King Aerys' Hand,

2. when her mother died/were killed by her newborn monster-brother,

3. when King rudely rejected marriage proposal, saying that his son is a Prince, while Cersei is only servant's daughter, thus she isn't good enough for him,

4. when her father resigned his post, 

5. when her brother Jaime became a Kingslayer,

6. when she married with Robert the Usurper,

7. when she had marital problems with her husband,

8. when her husband was chasing after every skirt, and drinking the days away,

9. when her husband died, and rumours were saying that she's the one who offed him,

10. when there appeared rumours that she's a brother-fucker and that her children are a fruits of incest,

11. when she forged an aliance with Tyrells, thru marriage between Joffrey and Margaery,

12. when Joffrey was poisoned,

13. when Tyrion was judged for his aleged participation in his nephew's death,

14. when Tyrion killed their father, and escaped justice,

15. when Margaery married with Tommen,

16. when she armed holy army of Sparrows,

17. when Loras and Margaery were imprisoned by High Sparrow,

18. the aftermath of her own imprisonment and walk of shame,

19. when Mircella died,

20. when Tommen joined High Sparrow, and turned his back to his mother,

etc., etc., etc.

And she wasn't blind, nor deaf.

She knew those people for many years, she knew which of them are truly loyal to her, and which were only pretending to be her devoted followers, when she was in her prime. The only thing that was left is to figure out how their allegiance changed in the light of recent events.

She made several big mistakes:

1. She didn't killed Lancel Lannister after she ended their affair. Either Littlefinger knew about their affair all along. Or Lancel told him about it, when he became a Sparrow. Or he told about it in his confession to septon. She should have killed him. Because he weren't only her lover, he also helped her to off Robert.

2. When she met Lancel, during Joffrey's funeral, and she saw that he became a religious fanatic, and after what he was saying to her, she should have killed both him, and his father Kevan Lannister. Because after Lancel found his faith, he shared everything with his father. And uncle Kevan wasn't happy with Cersei, for seducing his only son, for making him an accomplise in a kingslaying, and as result of it he became a religious idiot, and denounced his family name and his legacy.

3. She should have loved Tommen more. She should have been to him a better mother than she was. Unfortunately for her, she started to pay attention to him only when he became a KIng. And as a person that was neglected during his childhood, he was easily influenced by those people that paid attention to him, or pretended that they want to be his friends, or that they support him. Thus first Margaery-bitch got into his head, then High Sparrow, and uncle Kevan, and even creep Pycelle.

4. She has grively offended Pycelle, by ridiculing what was sacred to him. For him that became a moment, when he thought "Now you've done it, bitch! You're gonna regret this."

5. She shouldn't have thought, that as a Queen she has a diplomatic immunity, and thus be misleaded that Sparrows are harmless to her.

Quote

In Season Six, suddenly she's doing all this in perfect secrecy. No one knows she's still in the game. Which makes everyone else an idiot and Cersei a supergenius.

She has learned her lessons well.

Quote

You're backtracking from the fact that Cersei ends up winning, with a loyal court and Black Guard. Therefore, she must have set it up in secret beforehand, even though that would have been impossible given what we were shown.

I wasn't backtracking.

Furthermore I even made two mistakes with my assumptions, while I was watching that season for the first time:

1. I haven't thought that she will publickly reveal existence of her Killing Squad, and officially establish them in Red Keep as her personal guards.

2. I figured out that she wants to use wildfire, in the same episode when Tommen banned trial by combat. But I thought that she will use it in the same manner as it was done by Tyrion. I thought that she will lock up herself, Tommen, and loyal to her people in a Red Keep. And then she will wait for return of Jaime and Lannister troops from Riverlands. And while she will be waiting, her people will be pouring wildfire over anyone who will try to break in. What Tyrion did to Stannis' troops.

So when instead of long and boring siege, Cersei's coup d'etat was efficiently summarized by Sept's explosion, I was pleasantly surprised.

On 23.09.2017 at 4:58 AM, darmody said:

Just as I thought, there were no actual clues. You're just making up your own story. 

There were actual clues, but they were in subtext, they were implied by visuals or by conversations between characters. To figure them out, viewers had to use deduction and their brain.

Combination of visual scene from Episode 1, when the Mountain killed crude gossiper, and scene from Episode 3, when Cersei and Qyburn were talking about Birds, imply that Cersei was going to deal with all gossipers all over Westeros, in the same manner that it was done in Episode 1.

"CERSEI (to QYBURN): Don’t stop at the city. I want little birds in Dorne, in Highgarden, in the North. If someone is planning on making our losses their gains I want to hear it. If someone is laughing at the queen who walk naked through the streets covered in shit, I want to hear. I want to know who they are. I want to know where they are.

And the part about wildfire was implied in the same scene where Tommen banned trial by combat. It was hinted by Cersei's request from Qyburn, and visual atmosphere of that scene:

1. Evil Queen backed into a corner, after she thought that she's safe and the Mountain will deal with her enemies, but suddenly situation dramatically changed by betrayal

(Mad King Aerys and sack of King's Landing)

2. backstabbing younger Lannister Tommen

(Kingslayer Jaime)

3. another traitor older Lannister uncle Kevan intercepting Evil Queen

(Tywin Lannister) 

4. crazy scientist maester Qyburn

(pyromancer maester Rossart)

5. Evil Queen talking with her crazy scientist maester Qyburn, in regards about certain rumours

And what sort of rumours could be interesting enough, for Cersei to be asking about them, while she's in such a predicament situation?

(Mad King gave Rossart order to ignite the wildfire caches and burn the city to the ground).

1+2+3+4+5 = Wilfire.

Did I made up 1-5? Rewatch that scene and you will see those clues yourself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlfIf3UMHpU

 

Quote

No, it was just bad writing. 

Whatever rocks your boat. Or 1000 ships ^_^

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6 hours ago, Megorova said:

Whatever rocks your boat. Or 1000 ships ^_^

God damn, even Preston Jacobs isn't this smugly self-assured (he usually ends his videos with 'I'm probably wrong about half of this').

I'm not even refuting your points, I'll admit that ahead of time, but God, can you stop being passive-aggressive and just be aggressive-aggressive? :P

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7 hours ago, Megorova said:

They approached only those people about whom they were 1000% sure that they will support Cersei.

You act like those would be in plentiful supply in a King's Landing that just saw her walk naked through the streets with shit thrown at her and is currently under house arrest for regicide. Heck, even her co-conspirator in the regicide, Lancel, is against her!

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On 23/09/2017 at 6:25 PM, Megorova said:

IHe has people (1,5 million workers), all needed resources (or can get them thru raids), experience, motivation and dedication of his people (which is also very important), and 6 months of time.

First sorry for my bad english, but I guess google translator would have been even worse.

 

Building 1000 ships in 6 monthes is impossible for Euron. There are major issues in how you demonstrate it is.

 

  1. Total Iron Islands population

 

It's definitively not 1,5M. At least 3 reasons for that :

 

  • This number is based on a ratio military forces/total population applied for all the kingdoms. But Ironborn have a so specific way of life which means their ratio is also specific. When most kingdoms get their ressources from trading, cultivating, hunting, Ironborn get theirs mostly by reaving. So their permanent military forces are far greater than in any other realm.

  • Geography: Iron Islands aren't very large, nor able to welcome a great population density. One exception is Harlaw, but even there there is no town, just lord 's castles,villages and small harbours. The previous calculation gives for the North a 4M population, even if there are large empty locations there, it's not realistic that there are not even 3 more times people in a 100 times largest surface. (and there is at least one large town in the North, White Harbour).

  • History : Ironborn suffered 2 great war defeats in the last decades, which has an impact on demography

 

So, my estimation for the population is about 500 000.

 

          2.   Ratio new fleet workers/ total population

 

Of course it is very far from 100%:)

 

    • children, too old people ------> -40%

    • dedicating the entire active population to one single task is impossible. The people need at least to eat so fishermen can't help, most of reavers neither because who would get all the supplies needed then ? So if 10% of the active population can be assigned to the ships building it is already a huge war effort .

    • Euron took power by killing Balon. Maybe many Ironborn accept that and follow him, but certainly not all of them. In the books Harlaw is ruled by Ashas (Yaras) uncle and he isn't Euron's friend...

 

That's leaves us with a maximum of 20000 workers.

 

             3. Drastic increase of building capacity

 

Let's say there were before Euron dreams of its 1000 ships 10 shipyard in the Iron Islands, each buidling 1 ship per month. This seem reasonnable, it allow to maintain a fleet, replacing old or destroyed ships.

 

To proceide the 1000 ships building, they would have to multiply this capacity by nearly 20 . Even if they had enough workers, building those new shipyards would take time, not days but weeks, if not monthes.

Shipyards aren't the only issue. Your countless workers could cut countless trees thats true. But you don't build ships with tree trunks (except the masts). So as for the shipyards you have to build sawmills too. Same for smithies (metal parts), weaving workshops, rope factories, ….

 

Being optimistic, I would say you can make your new production capacity operational in a year. But within that year, you would have built no more ships than before.

 

Last point, your comparaison with US Liberty ships in WWII isn't a good one. As your source wrote, the first was built in 230 days. The delay was greatly reduced after by using many prefabricated parts built all over the country, and welding these parts in the main shipyard , instead of riveting them like all other ships were in that time. The result was a great quantity of ships, but very low quality. This can in no case be applied to wooden ships.

 

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On 24.09.2017 at 5:04 AM, falcotron said:

Leaf and her group created the Night King 8000 years ago.

Ok, maybe they did. I said that NK creation could have happened 50 years ago, as one of options. Another option is that current NK is the original NK, and he was created prior first LN.

Though this creates even more questions than answers.

Why did Leaf waited for 8000 years before asking for help from humans?

Out of those 8000 years NK was active for the last 15+, what Leaf and other Children were doing all that time, why didn't they stopped him earlier?

Is Bran the only option they had in those 15+ years?

If they lived for so long, if they are so smart, if they know lots of stuff, if they know how NK was defeated during first LN, why didn't they done the same thing?

If they personaly knew Last Hero or Azor Ahai, then why didn't they contacted Jon Snow or Daenerys Targaryen?

They behaviour is seriosly weird. It's like they were sitiing for years doing nothing, and thought that the problem will be resolved on its own.

19 hours ago, MinscS2 said:

OK, now you're just making stuff up...

She said: "What grace is given me, let it pass to him. Let him be spared. Save him."

 

Arwen became ill and was dying, not because of heartache, but because world was polluted by evil. Another example of the same thing happening is scene in Hobbit 2, with Galadriel, Arwen's maternal grandmother.

Sauron said: "Even now you fade. One light alone in the darkness."

Even though she haven't fought, she couldn't even get up, then she even lost consciousness. And why is that? Because she was affected by evil energy, that surrounded them. It weakened her. Out of five people present there, she was the strongest being. Her connection with nature was the strongest, because she is a pure elf. But because of that strong connection, she also became severely affected by evil, when Sauron summoned dark forces, and their surroundings became saturated with evil energy. It prevented her from absorbing energy from nature. Thus to fight against Sauron, she had to use her inner reserves, and magical artifact to channel her energy thru.

 

 

Though I did misplaced a few things in my second post about Arwen (haven't read LotR in 15+ years). By the end of the book Arwen was immortal, and chose to become mortal only years later, after her husband Aragorn died. In a movie Ring 3, she also fully restored, when evil was gone. And it was Arwen and not Aragorn, who had a vision where Aragorn is dead, and Arwen is a widow mourning him, and next vision where she saw their future son.

 

It's a common knowledge (in fantasy, fiction and legends) - no magic equals to no magical creatures/beings. Magic is a force of nature. Disappearance of magic is a form of evolution, thru which all magical beings either went away to far lands, or inbreeded with humans, or became extinct like dinosaurs.

http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/TheMagicGoesAway

Starting line in that article is:

"Maybe magic was once a mighty force in the world, but not anymore." -  Maester Luwin, Game of Thrones.

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3 hours ago, valgrel said:

First sorry for my bad english, but I guess google translator would have been even worse.

I'm using it. Not too bad. At least helps with spelling.

3 hours ago, valgrel said:

So, my estimation for the population is about 500 000.

Ok, let's use this estimation.

3 hours ago, valgrel said:

children, too old people ------> -40%

In modern society 'child' is 'a human being below the age of 18 years'.

Do you see where the problem is? Jon Snow became Lord Commander of Nights Watch when he was 15. At the same age Jaime Lannister joined Kingsguard. Robb Stark became The King in The North, won many battles and died when he was 16. Lyanna Mormont Lady of Bear Island is 9 years old. Arya became Faceless assassin when she was 11-13 years old. Jon wasn't even youngest Lord Commander in history, he was only fifth youngest, and the youngest one was 10 years old Stark.

In Iron Islands when children are turning 7 years old, ALL OF THEM either join a ship crew, or become apprentices in land occupations. And there's not a lot of options they can chose to work on land. Because ironborn don't work as farmers, sowerers, and other sorts of plantgrowers. That sort of job is done by special cast of slaves, that ironborn call thralls (thralls are not ironborn, they are prisoners captured in raids). Those thralls also build houses, and work in iron mines. So majority of land occupations for ironborn are limited to blacksmiths, and other similar professions.

Also have you seen at least once any elderly man or woman in GOT just leisuring around doing nothing? They all work nearly until the day they die (like NW's maester Aemon, or all maesters in Citadel, but not only maesters, other elderly also work - old man and woman that tryed to help Sansa to get away from Ramsay Bolton).

So at least half of children and elderly will also be working, children older than 7, and those elderly that aren't sick/bedridden/dying. They can catch fish, cook food, dye sails with squid ink, paint yellow squids on those sails. Work as messengers or coordinators, they can transport supplies in carts/wagons driven by used on Iron Islans shaggy ponies. Children can weive ropes, bring food to shipwrights.

4 hours ago, valgrel said:

dedicating the entire active population to one single task is impossible. The people need at least to eat so fishermen can't help, most of reavers neither because who would get all the supplies needed then ? So if 10% of the active population can be assigned to the ships building it is already a huge war effort .

10%? Really? Out of 500,000 population of Iron Islands only 10%? Even though out of them 80% are active able workers, females and teenagers included? Because their females are also raiders/fighters/sailors/fishers. And their children work on boats and ships since they're 7 years old. So women and children that are 10+ years old, can sail to open sea to catch fish.

Also their long awaited King ordered them to build 1,000 ships, and he specifically said that all females have to weave sails. So would any of them say - No, I'm busy with other stuff, so I can't join you, and dedicate myself to this single task. ?

80% of them will be working on this task, in one capacity or another, either as shipwrights, or assistants and supplyers. And that's 400,000. If even 10% of them will be working as shipwrights, then that's 40,000. Another 10% will be cutting trees; 10% will make boards; 10% will arrange shipyards, and will manage and supply them thruout entire project; another 10% will be catching fish and other seasfood, and cook food; 10% will go on raids to get what else they may need. 

That's 240,000 out of 500,000 population, including 40,000 that will be fishing to feed entire population. Even according to your own estimation 40% are children and elderly, thus the rest 60% are men and women of working age, that's 300,000. Which means that out of working population there will still be left 60,000 people. If even only 1/4 of them will be weaving sail, that's 15,000. How many sails will they have to make in span of 6 months, for 1,000 ships? One person can make minimum 1 sail per month. So that would be 90,000 sails. They don't need that many. Nearly all of their ships has only one mast. So maybe they have up to 5 sails per ship, and another 5 spare. That's 10,000 in total. To make that amount in 6 months, they need to use only 1,667 people.   

241,667 people to build 1,000 ships in 6 month.

Also based on time and distance estimation, between Euron's coronation and Dany's arrival to Dragonstone, also passed 6 months.

5 hours ago, valgrel said:

Let's say there were before Euron dreams of its 1000 ships 10 shipyard in the Iron Islands, each buidling 1 ship per month. This seem reasonnable, it allow to maintain a fleet, replacing old or destroyed ships.

 

To proceide the 1000 ships building, they would have to multiply this capacity by nearly 20 . Even if they had enough workers, building those new shipyards would take time, not days but weeks, if not monthes.

Shipyards for building wooden ships are very simple. Majority of constructions there are for storage of supplyes. They have many ports and docks on Iron Islands. They also have keeps, in which they store wattle for rigging, and wood (for example on Harlaw Island). On the same island they have mines, and most likely they also store their metal there.

Medieval shipyards look something like this:

So mostly they will have to build only props/supports on sides, and to put logs beneath future construction, to later slide ships into water.

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8 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Do you see where the problem is? Jon Snow became Lord Commander of Nights Watch when he was 15.

Jon was 17 in season 1, and he was 20-21 when he got elected as Lord Commander in the show, not 15.
 

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50 minutes ago, Megorova said:

 

I

Do you see where the problem is? Jon Snow became Lord Commander of Nights Watch when he was 15. At the same age Jaime Lannister joined Kingsguard. Robb Stark became The King in The North, won many battles and died when he was 16. Lyanna Mormont Lady of Bear Island is 9 years old. Arya became Faceless assassin when she was 11-13 years old. Jon wasn't even youngest Lord Commander in history, he was only fifth youngest, and the youngest one was 10 years old Stark.

In Iron Islands when children are turning 7 years old, ALL OF THEM either join a ship crew, or become apprentices in land occupations. And there's not a lot of options they can chose to work on land. Because ironborn don't work as farmers, sowerers, and other sorts of plantgrowers. That sort of job is done by special cast of slaves, that ironborn call thralls (thralls are not ironborn, they are prisoners captured in raids). Those thralls also build houses, and work in iron mines. So majority of land occupations for ironborn are limited to blacksmiths, and other similar professions.

Also have you seen at least once any elderly man or woman in GOT just leisuring around doing nothing? They all work nearly until the day they die (like NW's maester Aemon, or all maesters in Citadel, but not only maesters, other elderly also work - old man and woman that tryed to help Sansa to get away from Ramsay Bolton).

So at least half of children and elderly will also be working, children older than 7, and those elderly that aren't sick/bedridden/dying. They can catch fish, cook food, dye sails with squid ink, paint yellow squids on those sails. Work as messengers or coordinators, they can transport supplies in carts/wagons driven by used on Iron Islans shaggy ponies. Children can weive ropes, bring food to shipwrights.

 

Ok, so every child under 7 is doing something. Let's go with that. That's mean they are doing something useful for their community, so if they  use them to replace those who are working for the new ships, who will replace the children then ?  That's mean less fishing, so less food for everyone, also less reaving (I hope you don't send the kids for that). 

 

50 minutes ago, Megorova said:

 

Also their long awaited King ordered them to build 1,000 ships, and he specifically said that all females have to weave sails. So would any of them say - No, I'm busy with other stuff, so I can't join you, and dedicate myself to this single task. ?

 

I suppose the long awaited king is ironical. He has been far from the Iron Islands for years, and just before his speech the captains had choosen Yara for leader. 

If he use more brutality than Balon to force people to work, I don't think he will remain popular very long.

50 minutes ago, Megorova said:

 

That's 240,000 out of 500,000 population, including 40,000 that will be fishing to feed entire population.

I'll be glad to read from you what the 500 000 were doing before Euron's arrival. If 40 000 are enough  to fish for all the people , 20 000 for the reaving forces , what are doing the 440 000 other people ??

Surely waiting for a new king who will ask them to build 1000 ships.

 

50 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Shipyards for building wooden ships are very simple. Majority of constructions there are for storage of supplyes. They have many ports and docks on Iron Islands. They also have keeps, in which they store wattle for rigging, and wood (for example on Harlaw Island). 

They do have ports and docks, but not many unused ones. So if they need 20 times more, it's not easy to build and certainly not instant.

 

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23 hours ago, Jabul said:

I would like to return to the central assertion of this thread.

Sure, let's do that.

I'm already bored with ships theme. Celebrate @Beardy the Wildling, I'm letting you stay unconvinced.

23 hours ago, Jabul said:

Daenerys and her friends/allies/advisers are implausibly stupid. This isn’t the only reason for Cersei’s success, but it accounts for a large percentage of said success.

Maybe that's because they're not used yet to work as a team.

Grey Worm and Missandei looked like scared lost children when Dany flew away. They barely managed to manage Meereen for a few weeks. And they were very lucky that Dany returned on that day.

Varys is a good politician, but he knows nothing about war/fighting. Tyrion was King's Hand only for a few months. Also their new Queen doesn't know much about politics, or how to rule entire country. When she was in Meereen, she made mistake after mistake after mistake. She's a bad ruler, that doesn't know what she's doing.

23 hours ago, Jabul said:

Cersei didn’t just kill a High Septon. She destroyed one of the central institutions of the Seven Kingdoms. The reaction of everyone, aristocrats and commoners, amounts to something like “Ho, hum. No more Vatican. No more papacy. No big deal. Let’s move on to more important things.”  This is nonsense. 

People of 7K themselves killed one High Septon (ripped him apart), and participated in lynching of another. Baelor's Sept is biggest sept in 7K, but it's not an equivalent of Vatican. It's more like a museum, or a family crypt for royalty. Also even though High Sparrow was popular, and had many followers, not all people, whose religion is Faith of Seven, are his followers. So for majority of them, his death meant nothing, death of other Sparrows meant nothing. And furthermore why should other people care if remnants of dead kings, queens, princes and princesses were dusted?

23 hours ago, Jabul said:

A considerable gathering of the lords of the Reach meets with Cersei in the throne room. For some reason, none of them appears to be troubled by the destruction of another institution, the Kingsguard.

Kingsguard is not an institution. Furthermore Cersei didn't removed them entirely. She just changed their style - previously they wore white capes, now they wear black. Why lords should be troubled by wardrobe changes in court?

23 hours ago, Jabul said:

They have somehow forgotten about a pivotal event in their history, the Field of Fire.

So should they put their life on pause, just because Dany has dragons?

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18 hours ago, Megorova said:

As I already wrote, and repeat again -

They approached only those people about whom they were 1000% sure that they will support Cersei. Before making actual offer, they gathered information about them, and to those that were interesting to Cersei, she assigned little spies to watch their every move.

Also don't forget that Cersei lived for over 20 years in King's Landing and was part of royal court, and 15+ out of them she was a Queen. She KNOWS all courtiers, all government officials, she knew them for years.

She watched how their behaviour towards her, changed over time:

And she wasn't blind, nor deaf.

She knew those people for many years, she knew which of them are truly loyal to her, and which were only pretending to be her devoted followers, when she was in her prime. 

Basically, like I said, your answer is Cersei's a super-genius. A newfound supergenius, I should say, because in previous seasons she was outplayed by her brother, for instance, who had virtually no support in King's Landing when he arrived, aside from that provided by invoking his father's name (his father being far away). Somehow she's more powerful now that she's relatively weaker. Not sure how that works. 

Now she has the little birds, I guess. They're 1000% more effective than her previous spy network. Who gather information above the street level...somehow. I wonder why Varys never sat on the throne, if those urchins were such a powerful asset. Ah, but he's not a supergenius like Cersei.

 

All the handicaps forced upon Cersei were nothing, because she could gather forces loyal to her to take over the capital because she just knew. She knew whom she could trust, and therefore was beyond the reach of her enemies. How could they possibly find out, when her people were 1000% trustworthy?

Where were all these trustworthy people, by the way, when Cersei felt cold and lonely in Season Five? When the Tyrell's and Mean, Old Uncle Kevin were edging her out of influence, which caused her to foolishly invoke the Faith Militant. When she was arrested and forced to perform the Walk of Shame. They might've come in handy. 

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34 minutes ago, Megorova said:

So should they put their life on pause, just because Dany has dragons?

If their lives consist of marching armies out in the open a flyable distance from Dragonstone (I suppose any distance is flyable, given how the Wight Hunt ended) after attacking one of the Dragon Queen's allies, yes. Maybe they should consider that. 

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4 minutes ago, darmody said:

Where were all these trustworthy people, by the way, when Cersei felt cold and lonely in Season Five? When the Tyrell's and Mean, Old Uncle Kevin were edging her out of influence, which caused her to foolishly invoke the Faith Militant. When she was arrested and forced to perform the Walk of Shame. They might've come in handy. 

They where on the Iron Islands, cutting down trees and building ships. ;) 

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38 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Varys is a good politician, but he knows nothing about war/fighting. 

Do you need to know anything about war to hear someone whisper in your ear, "Euron has dedicated 99% of his population to the construction of a new fleet"--something which would be hard to hide from anyone who had any contact with the Iron Islands in the previous six months--then say, "Hey, Dany, better watch out for fresh armadas. Maybe we better tread carefully with this circumnavigation plan."

Instead, Varys knows nothing useful about anything anywhere, ever. What is the point of him? To tell her when she's getting too burn-y? 

The show made Varys useless to extend Cersei's already unbelievable reign. The man who built the spy network that according to you gained a lady under house arrest the throne doesn't know when entire armies or navies come into existence and/or move across continents. Because he was out east for a bit, and out of practice?

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19 hours ago, Megorova said:

There were actual clues, but they were in subtext, they were implied by visuals or by conversations between characters. To figure them out, viewers had to use deduction and their brain.

Combination of visual scene from Episode 1, when the Mountain killed crude gossiper, and scene from Episode 3, when Cersei and Qyburn were talking about Birds, imply that Cersei was going to deal with all gossipers all over Westeros, in the same manner that it was done in Episode 1.

"CERSEI (to QYBURN): Don’t stop at the city. I want little birds in Dorne, in Highgarden, in the North. If someone is planning on making our losses their gains I want to hear it. If someone is laughing at the queen who walk naked through the streets covered in shit, I want to hear. I want to know who they are. I want to know where they are.

I have no idea what killing the guy who took his dick out during the Walk of Shame, nor the little birds listening to gossip, has to do with building a Black Guard loyal to Cersei. Which is the subject of our disagreement. (Or the one we're discussing in this exchange, anyway.) Obviously the audience knows Cersei wants to destroy her enemies, and is trying to use a spy network to do so. That's text, not subtext.

See, little birds can reasonably be expected to hear of some guy mouthing off around town. Nothing's unbelievable about them coming back to Qyburn with the information, in exchange for treats. Cersei can tell Zombie Mountain to go kill him, and he can get away with it. Because if the authorities hear about Ser Monster killing some plebian, it might be no big deal. I imagine there are lots of murders in King's Landing. 

I, for one, would worry about leaving Cersei a monster and a Mad Scientist. Better to make assurance doubly sure and take away all her resources. But it's not exactly a plot hole. They thought they had her number anyway and didn't need to bother. 

 

None of this really has anything to do with Cersei recruiting her secret army, because what you take as hints still don't reveal the mechanism. Even if you add in Cersei's undemonstrated supergenius, which tells her whom to trust 1000%, how does she go about it? The Qyburn-bird-Mountain team does what? Who talks to potential recruits? The Creepy Mad Scientist, the homeless children, or the monster? What do they say? And, again, where is there a smidgen of a hint that any of this actually happens?

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19 hours ago, Megorova said:

And the part about wildfire was implied in the same scene where Tommen banned trial by combat. It was hinted by Cersei's request from Qyburn, and visual atmosphere of that scene:

1. Evil Queen backed into a corner, after she thought that she's safe and the Mountain will deal with her enemies, but suddenly situation dramatically changed by betrayal

(Mad King Aerys and sack of King's Landing)

2. backstabbing younger Lannister Tommen

(Kingslayer Jaime)

3. another traitor older Lannister uncle Kevan intercepting Evil Queen

(Tywin Lannister) 

4. crazy scientist maester Qyburn

(pyromancer maester Rossart)

5. Evil Queen talking with her crazy scientist maester Qyburn, in regards about certain rumours

And what sort of rumours could be interesting enough, for Cersei to be asking about them, while she's in such a predicament situation?

(Mad King gave Rossart order to ignite the wildfire caches and burn the city to the ground).

1+2+3+4+5 = Wilfire.

Did I made up 1-5? Rewatch that scene and you will see those clues yourself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlfIf3UMHpU

It was widely predicted in the fandom, if not the general audience, that the rumors pertained to the Mad King's stash of wildfire. Not enough that everyone immediately knew she'd blow up the Sept, but enough so that when the Sept was blown we realized the twist had been well-prepared. 

Look back on this thread and you'll see it's not the wildfire people had a problem with. It wasn't my cup of tea, because I don't like the style of storytelling which relies on making it seem like a character is down and out, but wait, they have a secret amulet or whatever that wipes out all their enemies in one fell swoop. (Which the show constantly does with Dany, one of my least favorite characters, the ace up her sleeve being dragons/fire and her resistance to fire). It would've been easy to give Cersei a less total downfall, so that her rise back up did didn't have to be so extreme. But the show wanted spectacle, and it got it. Spectacle for its own sake doesn't usually interest me. The Septslosion was at least entertaining, though. (Unlike the last minute relief of the attack on Mereen by Dany Dragons, which was plain boring. The show knew it, too, which is why it was relegated to the B-plot of the Battle of the Bastards episode.)

The problem comes with how Cersei parlayed this into queenship. The answer is, well, there is no answer, really. Your answer is that she built up a force before the wildfire came into play, and there's simply no evidence for it. That's what the argument's about, not where wildfire came from. 

By the way, your attempt to overlay the situation when Tommen denies her a trial by combat with the Mad King's wildfire plot point by point doesn't track. But it's unnecessary, because all you need is to hear about the rumor and wonder what could it possibly be? 

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2 hours ago, MinscS2 said:

Jon was 17 in season 1, and he was 20-21 when he got elected as Lord Commander in the show, not 15.

My mistake. In a book he was 14 in the beginning, 15 when he joined Nights Watch, and 17 when he became Lord Commander and was killed.

Though among other characters, they changed ages only of several young main characters. That's not a reason enough, to think that we should also change 'recruitment' age of ironborn. Children (and people in general) in GOT and ASOIAF worlds are more capable. For example when Ned Stark met Gendry, who at that time was 14 (in books), and already worked for years as a blacksmith's apprentice, Ned was very impressed with his work, and wanted to buy bull helmet made by him. 

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2 hours ago, valgrel said:

Ok, so every child under 7 is doing something. Let's go with that. That's mean they are doing something useful for their community, so if they  use them to replace those who are working for the new ships, who will replace the children then ?

Thralls.

They will take them out of mines, and use them to replace whoever needed. Or they will capture more thralls.

2 hours ago, valgrel said:

I suppose the long awaited king is ironical. He has been far from the Iron Islands for years, and just before his speech the captains had choosen Yara for leader. 

If he use more brutality than Balon to force people to work, I don't think he will remain popular very long.

No need to force those who are burning to work.

Balon as a king, was a failure. He failed his rebellion, he failed his children (two of his sons got killed, third was taken as a hostage by Ned Stark), he failed his people. And after that, for many years he was just sitting in his castle, doing nothing.

Also Euron's exile lasted only 3 or so years. By 'long awaited' I meant that ironborn wanted changes, for a long time. They wanted to rise to the same level as they were in their prime years, during ruling of House Hoare, when they had a huge fleet and conquired Riverlands. Euron is the kind of person that can achive that. They will build for him 1,000 ships, and he will conquer the world for them (or at least 7K). According to some sources Euron will be the Big Bad Evil in books and in the show, that he will even off Cersei.

2 hours ago, valgrel said:

I'll be glad to read from you what the 500 000 were doing before Euron's arrival. If 40 000 are enough  to fish for all the people , 20 000 for the reaving forces , what are doing the 440 000 other people ??

Drinking and fighting, like real sailors they are :D

2 hours ago, valgrel said:

They do have ports and docks, but not many unused ones. So if they need 20 times more, it's not easy to build and certainly not instant.

They have unpopulated empty islands, so they can additonally build there. Or they can build floating docks.

Wooden ships of those sizes can be build on the ground. There's no need to make a complicated constructions - all that is needed is to place logs and build shipcradle and slideway/ramp on the ground, and to build ship above them, with supports that will hold ship on the sides.

After construction is completed those logs are removed and ship slides into water.

Front slide

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/Friedland_Van_Bree-1810.jpg

Side slide

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ae/Duc_de_Bourgogne_launch_1751.jpg/640px-Duc_de_Bourgogne_launch_1751.jpg

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2b/Ecorse_Mi_1909_-_panoramio.jpg/751px-Ecorse_Mi_1909_-_panoramio.jpg

 

Let's end shipbuilding theme. It's getting too overused on this thread.

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