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(Spoilers) - The War makes no sense


Tyrion1991

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1 hour ago, Megorova said:

My mistake. In a book he was 14 in the beginning, 15 when he joined Nights Watch, and 17 when he became Lord Commander and was killed.

Though among other characters, they changed ages only of several young main characters.

I think show!Jon being 17 instead of 15 when he joined the KG is a deliberate change that reflects a slightly different society than in the novels, but the extra two years in making him 21 instead of 19 when he was elected LC are not.

Aging all of the child characters up two years (and then adjusting a whole lot of backstory to fit those changes even when most of that backstory would only appear on DVD extras) was a deliberate change made specifically because they thought most of those characters going through their book stories at their book ages would either be hard to believe or hard to stomach (especially Sansa and Dany). So it really does seem to be a society where people become adults about two years later than the book society.

But beyond that, they were constrained (by the fact that child actors age a year every year) to make each season take about a year of in-universe time, even if the book being covered took much less time. So a story that will probably take about 3 years in the books has to take 8 on the show. But I don't think that means it's a society where electing someone as LC at 19 would be implausible so they've moved it to 21, that's just a coincidence of it happening in season 5. They do actually seem to have put a little thought (at least in S4-5) into the fact that Arya's story is different from the novels just because she's so much older, but really only her; for everyone else they seem to be more trying to ignore that or pretend it means nothing.

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In regards to the faith, in s5 we see the high septon paraded around and humiliated while ppl on the streets cheer. During the first encounter between Cersei and the sparrow they discuss how members of the faith are getting raped and killed. This all shows a regression of belief and respect for the faith. 

The high sparrow and his faith militant comes into power and gives the poor ppl a sense that they can have power against the ruling class. This is shown with the pleasure they have during Cerseis walk of atonement. Then in the blink of an eye it is all taken away. The Sept is gone, the militant is gone, the high sparrow is gone, nobles and common folk are gone. The outlet the common folk had to enact some power against the ruling class is gone. The common folk are unarmed to take physical opposition against Cersei and her armored forces. They either submit, leave, or die. 

Upon her ascension there are no forces able to stand against her. What forces throughout the 7 kingdoms are scarce and far away. Stormland forces were decimated in the battles of the Blackwater and up north. The Northern forces have been weakened with Robbs war and the battle of the bastards. The Vale forces are up north. The riverlands forces have been weakened with all the wars and were loyal to the Lannisters courtesy of the Freys. Dorne forces are allied and planning the invasion with Dany. The Reach forces were not assembled and remained in the Reach. There just isn't a strong enough opposition to Cersei. 

Early on in S7 Cersei has the Lannister armies ( reduced as they may be since start of the wars), the Reach forces courtesy of the Tarlys betrayal of the Tyrells, the Iron fleet and Ironborn. Dorne is taken out of the fold and leaderless with Eurons ambush. The biggest thing to note is that winter is here and is predicted to be a long one. Most regions and families are concerned with stocking up their homes with provisions to survive the winter. They aren't going to be concerned as much with who sits on the iron thone. We see winter coming to the Riverlands in episode one and it reaching Kings Landing by the end of the season. 

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8 minutes ago, falcotron said:

a deliberate change made specifically because they thought most of those characters going through their book stories at their book ages would either be hard to believe or hard to stomach (especially Sansa and Dany).

There's also the fact that they had to cast actors capable of carrying storylines on their own. If not right away, as in the case of Dany and Jon, eventually. You can hope they'll grow into the roles, but the older they are the surer you'll be. 

It's common practice to have people in their mid-20s play high school kids in movies and on tv. Often it borders on implausibility. But in Game of Thrones you don't have to tell explicitly how old everyone is, and are freer to fudge the numbers. Which makes it all the easier to cast people beyond their book age. 

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2 hours ago, darmody said:

Because he was out east for a bit, and out of practice?

Because Cersei took over his spy network, and thru it was - 1. spying after him, 2. withholding important information from him, 3. feeding him with false information.

And thru all of it, he mistakenly thought, that he's in control of situation, and knows everything: "Men can be fickle, but birds I always trust."

Knowledge is power. So who's now the most powerful person in Westeros?

Cersei haven't only took away Varys' network, she also made it larger.

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5 minutes ago, Verily said:

In regards to the faith, in s5 we see the high septon paraded around and humiliated while ppl on the streets cheer. During the first encounter between Cersei and the sparrow they discuss how members of the faith are getting raped and killed. This all shows a regression of belief and respect for the faith. 

No, it shows a diminution of trust and belief in the institutions of the orthodox faith. We know the people retained belief and respect for the faith, because they were said to be flocking behind the Sparrow, who also represents the faith. 

If the "faith" part of Faith Militant meant nothing to them and it was merely an excuse to indulge in lashing out at the upper class, the show didn't tell us. 

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9 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Because Cersei took over his spy network, and thru it was - 1. spying after him, 2. withholding important information from him, 3. feeding him with false information.

And thru all of it, he mistakenly thought, that he's in control of situation, and knows everything: "Men can be fickle, but birds I always trust."

Knowledge is power. So who's now the most powerful person in Westeros?

Cersei haven't only took away Varys' network, she also made it larger.

I don't see the difference between the show making Varys unrealistically stupid and/or inept and making Cersei a supergenius who can both steal and enlarge Varys' spy network without Varys being able to do anything about it from the comfort of the Red Keep because Qyburn. 

In the latter case, Varys is at least relatively stupid. Why? He wasn't so stupid when he stole the imp from Supergenius Cersei in Season Four.

Ah, but she was just Regular Cersei back then. She only became a supergenius when she lost all her power. 

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24 minutes ago, Verily said:

The common folk are unarmed to take physical opposition against Cersei and her armored forces. 

The same common folk who attacked Joffrey, nearly raped Lady Sansa, and tore apart a High Septon? There's nothing they could possibly do, right? 

Oh, they're too busy cheering on Glorious Queen Cersei the Just, praised be her name. 

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2 hours ago, Megorova said:

...

1. Grey Worm and Missandei looked like scared lost children when Dany flew away. They barely managed to manage Meereen for a few weeks. And they were very lucky that Dany returned on that day.

2. Varys is a good politician, but he knows nothing about war/fighting. Tyrion was King's Hand only for a few months. Also their new Queen doesn't know much about politics, or how to rule entire country...

People of 7K themselves killed one High Septon (ripped him apart), and participated in lynching of another.

 Baelor's Sept is biggest sept in 7K, but it's not an equivalent of Vatican.

3. It's more like a museum, or a family crypt for royalty. 

...

4. So should they put their life on pause, just because Dany has dragons?

1. Maybe they looked that way to you. That doesn't mean they were that way. And no, they weren't just lucky. As I said, their judgement was better than that of Tyrion concerning the matter of the slavers. 

2. Varys doesn't have to know a great deal about fighting. That's not his function (See number 5 below). It would be nice if he, or somebody on Dragonstone during Season 7, had half of the brain power that almost any one of said people (or at least the main characters) had during Seasons 1-6. Tyrion was smart until Season 7. He also had more experience than just a brief stint as acting Hand. He thought his way out of a horrible situation on the road from the Vale after his trial. He organized the defense of KL against Stannis, and he led the sortie that bought time for the relief army to arrive.

Now, it's possible (but far from certain) that the Imp has given some bad advice due to divided loyalties. However, bad advice is bad advice, no matter who it comes from. Why can't some damn body or other see that the "capture a wight and show it to Cersei" idea is a harebrained scheme? Why think that you can capture a wight? Possibly because you read the script and the director assured you that, yes, we will shoot it that way. if you can capture a wight, why show it to the back-stabbing pretender on the throne? Surely you can think of a better audience than that. 

3. Says you, and who else? Do you have any proof at all that the place is mainly a museum or family crypt? Is that what the other septs are?

2 hours ago, darmody said:

4. If their lives consist of marching armies out in the open a flyable distance from Dragonstone (I suppose any distance is flyable, given how the Wight Hunt ended) after attacking one of the Dragon Queen's allies, yes. Maybe they should consider that. 

4. I don't see that they even had any solid reason to believe that they wouldl be attacked after hitting Highgarden. Why not before or during the battle? They march most of the way across an entire damn continent. How could they be sure that their movements wouldn't become known to the enemy? It is silly to presume that 100% of the lords present at the meeting with Cersei turned on the Tyrells. The probability that important info would get to Olenna and Deanerys is pretty close to certainty. Why didn't either of these women get such info? Easy--the show runners wouldn't allow it. 

And what's the business about putting their lives on hold? As I said before, I don't mind repeating myself. In decent fantasy writing, you build a world, then you abide by the rules of the world you have built. The lords of the Reach are aristocrats in a quasi-medeival society. They would protect their lives, their land, and the lives of their men. One way of doing this would be to refuse to take part in an enterprise that has the look of a suicide mission, aimed at despoiling their lands and robbing their peasants of the food they will need for the winter. The lords of the Reach would act like aristocrats of the Seven Kingdoms. They would not act like drones who have been assimilated by Borg Queen Brotherfucker. 

2 hours ago, darmody said:

5. Do you need to know anything about war to hear someone whisper in your ear, "Euron has dedicated 99% of his population to the construction of a new fleet"--something which would be hard to hide from anyone who had any contact with the Iron Islands in the previous six months--then say, "Hey, Dany, better watch out for fresh armadas. Maybe we better tread carefully with this circumnavigation plan."

Instead, Varys knows nothing useful about anything anywhere, ever. What is the point of him? To tell her when she's getting too burn-y? 

The show made Varys useless to extend Cersei's already unbelievable reign. The man who built the spy network that according to you gained a lady under house arrest the throne doesn't know when entire armies or navies come into existence and/or move across continents. Because he was out east for a bit, and out of practice?

5. This has been pointed out many times by many posters on at least a few threads. But I suppose those who don't want to listen can't hear. 

Actually, the case of the unknown fleet is even worse than you state here. I'll have more to say later. Time for dinner now. 

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2 hours ago, darmody said:

I have no idea what killing the guy who took his dick out during the Walk of Shame, nor the little birds listening to gossip, has to do with building a Black Guard loyal to Cersei.

 

Obviously the audience knows Cersei wants to destroy her enemies, and is trying to use a spy network to do so. That's text, not subtext.

 

None of this really has anything to do with Cersei recruiting her secret army, because what you take as hints still don't reveal the mechanism.

:blink: Are you serious?

1. It has EVERYTHING to do with her Black Guards. Because originally she gathered them for this very purpose - to kill her offenders.

2. She doesn't only WANTS to destroy her enemies, she DOES IT.

And how she does it a subtextual part of what she said:

"CERSEI (to QYBURN): Don’t stop at the city. I want little birds in Dorne, in Highgarden, in the North. If someone is planning on making our losses their gains I want to hear it. If someone is laughing at the queen who walk naked through the streets covered in shit, I want to hear. I want to know who they are. I want to know where they are."

Quote

Even if you add in Cersei's undemonstrated supergenius, which tells her whom to trust 1000%, how does she go about it? The Qyburn-bird-Mountain team does what? Who talks to potential recruits? The Creepy Mad Scientist, the homeless children, or the monster? What do they say?

Combine this together and think: How did Cersei offed that offender in first episode? How did she knew about him? What will she do if she will learn, that there are another offender like that, for example living in Dorne? What can she do?

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27 minutes ago, Verily said:

 

Upon her ascension there are no forces able to stand against her. What forces throughout the 7 kingdoms are scarce and far away. Stormland forces were decimated in the battles of the Blackwater and up north. The Northern forces have been weakened with Robbs war and the battle of the bastards. The Vale forces are up north. The riverlands forces have been weakened with all the wars and were loyal to the Lannisters courtesy of the Freys. Dorne forces are allied and planning the invasion with Dany. The Reach forces were not assembled and remained in the Reach. There just isn't a strong enough opposition to Cersei. 

Early on in S7 Cersei has the Lannister armies ( reduced as they may be since start of the wars), the Reach forces courtesy of the Tarlys betrayal of the Tyrells, the Iron fleet and Ironborn. Dorne is taken out of the fold and leaderless with Eurons ambush. The biggest thing to note is that winter is here and is predicted to be a long one. Most regions and families are concerned with stocking up their homes with provisions to survive the winter. They aren't going to be concerned as much with who sits on the iron thone. We see winter coming to the Riverlands in episode one and it reaching Kings Landing by the end of the season. 

Winter coming is as good a reason as any not to allow a Mad Queen to keep ruling you. For all they know she'll burn their food stores with wildfire because they didn't bow fervently enough. 

Not they should trust the Dragon Lady, but Cersei gets no blame from the common people when the war threatens their food and lives? Why? Because she has such a strong claim compared to Joffrey? Oh, I forgot, politics actually mattered back in Season Two. 

As for the rest of it, you're making the argument for why the war makes no sense, not the opposite. Cersei has at best 3 of the 7 kingdoms. Even if the Vale and the North are too busy to depose her, that leaves the bulk of Westeros to oppose her.

Dorne leaves the war because literally four people are captured or killed? Why? Why did the Sand Snakes have that much personal control over Dornish policy?

Reach forces betray the Tyrells for Cersei after Cersei blew up their Lord and Queen why? Because the save-Cersei plot demanded it. Not that there aren't good arguments against supporting the Dragon Queen. But we're talking about a madwoman who's only queen because she blew up a bunch of people. She's the more immediate threat. And she's easier to defeat, because all she has at hand before Euron pops up out of nowhere is the Black Guard (for no reason) and the remnants of the Lannister army. 

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8 minutes ago, Jabul said:

I don't see that they even had any solid reason to believe that they wouldl be attacked after hitting Highgarden. Why not before or during the battle? 

They could be attacked at any time, of course. But they know Dany has three dragons, and they know she's not using them. Either they aren't all they're cracked up to be, or she's holding them back for a reason. If there's ever a good reason to use them, it's because you just knocked out one of her allies and have made your army sitting ducks within flying distance of Dragonstone. 

 

That's all I was saying. Team Cersei was acting like dragons ain't no thang and setting themselves up for a second Field of Fire for no good reason. 

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2 hours ago, darmody said:

The problem comes with how Cersei parlayed this into queenship. The answer is, well, there is no answer, really. Your answer is that she built up a force before the wildfire came into play, and there's simply no evidence for it. That's what the argument's about, not where wildfire came from.

Yes, because she had another purpose for her enforcers - to kill her enemies all over Westeros.

2 hours ago, darmody said:

By the way, your attempt to overlay the situation when Tommen denies her a trial by combat with the Mad King's wildfire plot point by point doesn't track. But it's unnecessary, because all you need is to hear about the rumor and wonder what could it possibly be? 

It does track. With those elements given in the same scene, where they talk about rumors, it becomes obvious that the rumors are about wildfire.

When I watched that episode first time, when Qyburn came to Cersei and told her about some rumors, that she asked him to explore, for a few seconds I thought that she asked him to dig some dirt about High Sparrow, or Olenna who shortly prior that went away. But the moment she asked whether those are just rumours, and he replyed "More. Much more." From the way he said it, it became obvious that he can't be talking about someone, High Sparrow or Olenna or whoever else, he's talking about something not someone. And about what 'something' Cersei could have been interested in her situation, what kind of rumors can help her? -> That 'something' is wildfire.

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10 minutes ago, Megorova said:

:blink: Are you serious?

1. It has EVERYTHING to do with her Black Guards. Becuase originally she gathered them for this very purpose - to kill her offenders.

2. She doesn't only WANTS to destroy her enemies, she DOES IT.

And how she does it a subtextual part of what she said:

"CERSEI (to QYBURN): Don’t stop at the city. I want little birds in Dorne, in Highgarden, in the North. If someone is planning on making our losses their gains I want to hear it. If someone is laughing at the queen who walk naked through the streets covered in shit, I want to hear. I want to know who they are. I want to know where they are."

Combine this together and think: How did Cersei offed that offender in first episode? How did she knew about him? What will she do if she will learn, that there are another offender like that, for example living in Dorne? What can she do?

She only destroys her enemies with wildfire. Not by gathering together loyal factions of the King's Guard and Citywatch. That remains a figment of your imagination. (I can't answer why Tommen has no personal guard and Cersei is able to prevent him from heading to the Sept. I call plot hole.)

 

We don't have any disagreement that Cersei was using the birds to gather information and Zombie Mountain as an enforcer, in a limited fashion. I said as much above. But, again, what does that have to do with her building her own private army? There's no reason to believe based on the head-bashing scene that Cersei has a secret army at the end of the season. The only reason to believe so is that she gas absolute power in the city, which isn't at all pre-established. It comes out of the blue after she blows up the Sept.

Being able to kill one guy and doing what needs to be done to pull off what you've ascribed to her by season's end is not the same thing at all. Obviously she wanted revenge. Equally obviously, when she was in a position to be a player again she would do so by using spies and gathering people loyal to her. Because that's what she did in previous seasons. But what about the immediate future? What could she possibly do with the information given to her by birds in Dorne, truly? Nothing. 

Not until she's out  from under the heel of her enemies. Which she expected to pull off by using the Mountain in single combat. That was her plan. That plan was upset when Tommen turned against her. That's when Qyburn and the birds come into play to bail her ass out. That was the significance of what you take to be the hints and clues that she was building a secret army. The birds helped her fund the wildfire, which was the key to victory. That's why the show had her tell Qyburn to gather intelligence: because it was setting the stage for her to blow up the Sept. Not because it was setting the stage for a secret Cersei army within the city. 

 

When you hear her telling Qyburn she wants to get back at people, it's really just a rehash of her earlier conversation with Jaime--we're the only ones who matter, the rest of the world can burn--with a more specific object and means of revenge. She'll use intelligence to punish people insofar as she can. 

She can use little birds to infiltrate street gossip and have the Mountain kill a peasant. If he killed someone important, the Mountain would be taken away from her. Because her enemies have the power and wouldn't allow it. 

So she needs real power. How does she get it? Not by recruiting people the same way she did in previous seasons. It wouldn't work. Qyburn, the Mountain, and the birds aren't equipped for recruitment. They don't have that skill set. Furthermore, her enemies would notice and take away what little power she had. 

No, the show provided Cersei with a spy network to make it plausible enough for her to mastermind the Septsplosion. 

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1 hour ago, falcotron said:

I think show!Jon being 17 instead of 15 when he joined the KG is a deliberate change that reflects a slightly different society than in the novels, but the extra two years in making him 21 instead of 19 when he was elected LC are not.

Time frame of GOT, is influenced by amount of time in our real world, that it takes to film each season. And between Jon joining NW, and battle against wildlings, two show seasons passed. So they made it as if though, Jon was living in CB for 2 years in GOT.

1 hour ago, falcotron said:

Aging all of the child characters up two years (and then adjusting a whole lot of backstory to fit those changes even when most of that backstory would only appear on DVD extras) was a deliberate change made specifically because they thought most of those characters going through their book stories at their book ages would either be hard to believe or hard to stomach (especially Sansa and Dany).

And Arya.

1 hour ago, falcotron said:

So it really does seem to be a society where people become adults about two years later than the book society.

Big difference does it make :rolleyes: Ok, let's imagine that in GOT universe, ironborn children are recruited into working society when they are 9 years old, and not 7 like in the books.

1 hour ago, Verily said:

Upon her ascension there are no forces able to stand against her. What forces throughout the 7 kingdoms are scarce and far away. Stormland forces were decimated in the battles of the Blackwater and up north. The Northern forces have been weakened with Robbs war and the battle of the bastards. The Vale forces are up north. The riverlands forces have been weakened with all the wars and were loyal to the Lannisters courtesy of the Freys. Dorne forces are allied and planning the invasion with Dany. The Reach forces were not assembled and remained in the Reach. There just isn't a strong enough opposition to Cersei. 

 :agree:

Lots of members wrote, that people should rebell against Cersei, for what she did to High Sparrow, for blowing up 'Vatican', and for seizing throne. But people didn't. And the most relevant reason for that, is that all this 'Cersei vs Sparrows' conflict, was an internal affair of King's Landing. People in other 6 Kingdoms didn't gave a flying fuck about this. They had their own problems to deal with, before that, and after that.

Out of those 6 Kingdoms, only Reach was slightly interested in what was going on there. Because their Princess became involved in that conflict. But I don't think that all people of Reach cared about Margaery. First her family went against crown and she married with Renly, then she married with Joffrey, then she married with Tommen. I think that to Reaches' people in general, it became indifferent what Margaery is up to, who she's going to marry next. In books some of Reaches' bannermen, instead of switching sides together with Tyrells, chose to follow Stannis. So even before conflict against Sparrows, Reach was in a state of civil war. 6 kingdoms were in chaos, so they didn't cared about what was happening in King's Landing. When people have their own problems, they tend to ignore problems of others.

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4 hours ago, Megorova said:

...

 

Kingsguard is not an institution. Furthermore Cersei didn't removed them entirely. She just changed their style - previously they wore white capes, now they wear black. Why lords should be troubled by wardrobe changes in court?

...

It most assuredly is an institution, and an extremely important one in Westeros. If you look up the word "institution" in a dictionary, you find something like this:

"an organization, establishment, foundation, society, or the like, devoted to the promotion of a particular cause or program, especially one of a public, educational, or charitable character"

This particular definition can be found at

http://www.dictionary.com/browse/institution

The Kingsguard clearly fits the definition. It is an organization devoted to the cause of defending the monarch, a public cause. 

Changed their style???? Do you honestly believe that is all she did? Can you tell me who the Lord Commander is now? I don't think there even is one. Can you name more than one member? Perhaps you can do that, but I'm not sure how many show viewers could do so. Besides, there is only one that looms large. The presence of The Thing That Was Gregor on an institution that formerly was perhaps the model of honor in the 7K is beyond despicable. Among other things, the man (when he was a man) publicly and loudly admitted to the rape and murder of Princess Elia.  

Why would any lord or commoner brought into the current throne room not get the creeps?  Even Lannister bannermen should be turned off by what has happened to the institution formerly manned by knights like Barristan Selmy, Arthur Dayne, and Gerold Hightower. Would anyone at all believe that The Thing has taken sacred vows? And we have that important source of deeds, The Book of Brothers. Really ought to have an interesting entry for the main member of the guard, right? Something along the lines of--

GRRR, RRRNNN, AARR, ARF

 

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1 hour ago, darmody said:

They could be attacked at any time, of course. But they know Dany has three dragons, and they know she's not using them. Either they aren't all they're cracked up to be, or she's holding them back for a reason. If there's ever a good reason to use them, it's because you just knocked out one of her allies and have made your army sitting ducks within flying distance of Dragonstone. 

 

That's all I was saying. Team Cersei was acting like dragons ain't no thang and setting themselves up for a second Field of Fire for no good reason. 

Basically I agree. One point I'd emphasize: The Reach/Lannister forces are acting in ignorance of Dany's intentions. Dany herself hasn't definitely decided on how to use the dragons. The Reach/Lannisters forces might think she just doesn't want to attack the capital and cause a lot of civilian casualties. Okay boys, maybe that's it. So, what should we do? Let's abandon our defensive position, solve our enemy's ethical problem, and march in columns out in the open. Makes perfect sense, right? It's exactly what the writers and the director told us we have to do. 

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1 hour ago, Jabul said:

Says you, and who else?

Soldier #2. Or was it #3?

Quote

Do you have any proof at all that the place is mainly a museum or family crypt?

He said that he wanted to come to KL, and see Red Keep, Great Sept of Baelor, and Dragon Pit <- tourists' atractions ^_^ Also the way he was saying it, it sounded 'I want to gawk at Baelor's Sept, and make a few selfies there', and not 'I want to go to Baelors Sept, and pray there'.

Quote

Is that what the other septs are?

No. Baelor's Sept is special. Not only because it's biggest ever build. But also because it was build by a Targaryen, who was simultaniously King and Maester. And since his reign this Sept was used as a crypt for all rulers of 7K, and their family members.

I'm pretty sure that other septs, all over Westeros, are just small churches. And people aside from KL's royal family, are getting burned after their death, or buried in graves. Noble houses have their personal crypts (like the one in Winterfell), or family cemeteries. But smallfalk in general, are probably (depending on the circumstances of their death) buried wherever there's dirt to dig, burned or buried in collective graves (if it's a mass death from sickness or in battles), or abandoned to rot (like father and daughter in Season 7).

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1 hour ago, darmody said:

What could she possibly do with the information given to her by birds in Dorne, truly? Nothing. 

:rolleyes:

Think again.

I'll give you a few more clues:

1. Qyburn in KL gives to Birds sweets. But how did he lured to his side, Birds that live away from KL, in Dorne, in the North, etc?

2. In one of earlier seasons, one of Birds gave to Barristan Selmy, a scroll with royal pardom from King Robbert to Jorah Mormont.

This is that scroll:

https://qph.ec.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-d080a48ae58be514ff199ae475191ab3

Do you think raven :D brought this scroll from Westeros to Essos?

Or that the Bird that gave it, came all the way from King's Landing?

3. When Ser Barristan asked the boy, who gave it to you?, did the boy replied?

1 + 2 + 3 = ?

 

One more hint: Dany - pregnancy - Jorah - Varys - King Robert - Varys - poisoners.

Any ideas?

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3 hours ago, Verily said:

...

Early on in S7 Cersei has the Lannister armies ( reduced as they may be since start of the wars), the Reach forces courtesy of the Tarlys betrayal of the Tyrells, the Iron fleet and Ironborn. Dorne is taken out of the fold and leaderless with Eurons ambush. The biggest thing to note is that winter is here and is predicted to be a long one. Most regions and families are concerned with stocking up their homes with provisions to survive the winter. They aren't going to be concerned as much with who sits on the iron thone. We see winter coming to the Riverlands in episode one and it reaching Kings Landing by the end of the season. 

I'll keep singing the same song. I've lost count now on how many times I've gone over this verse. I'll keep making the same point. Perhaps someone will try to come up with an answer. So far, I haven't even encountered a half-assed attempt. Westeros is a quasi feudal society. Both aristocrats and common people draw their wealth and a good deal of their meaning from the land. When Borg Queen Brotherfucker sends her drones out to rob Highgarden and despoil the Reach, it makes zero sense that the lords of the Reach would even allow this action, much less support it. During the sensible parts of GoT, we see repeated examples of leaders who want to go home and take care of things. It is beyond ridiculous to have a Reach army essentially raping the Reach. And, one more time with feeling, the Reach soldiers would be the sons of the peasants and villagers being robbed of their food and left to starve. 

3 hours ago, darmody said:

1. Winter coming is as good a reason as any not to allow a Mad Queen to keep ruling you. For all they know she'll burn their food stores with wildfire because they didn't bow fervently enough. 

Not they should trust the Dragon Lady, but Cersei gets no blame from the common people when the war threatens their food and lives? ...

2. Dorne leaves the war because literally four people are captured or killed? Why? Why did the Sand Snakes have that much personal control over Dornish policy?

Reach forces betray the Tyrells for Cersei after Cersei blew up their Lord and Queen why? Because the save-Cersei plot demanded it. Not that there aren't good arguments against supporting the Dragon Queen. But we're talking about a madwoman who's only queen because she blew up a bunch of people. She's the more immediate threat. And she's easier to defeat, because all she has at hand before Euron pops up out of nowhere is the Black Guard (for no reason) and the remnants of the Lannister army. 

1. Yep, this is in line with what I said above. 

2. The reason that Dorne leaves the war is that D&D wanted it that way. They needed to streamline things and speed the action up. The place is leaderless? How do we know that? Some people died, but didn't those people leave someone in charge when they left? Also, why didn't those complete idiots on Dragonstone, the ones who previously had above average intelligence, even bother to try to communicate further with the southern kingdom? You cannot explain this by saying Tyrion is a traitor and Varys doesn't have any plums for his little birds.

One can come up with all kinds of convoluted explanations for this and that, but eventually even the best convolutions will break down. We're back to good old Occam and his razor. One can find a simple answer for the whole thing--inferior writing. 

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3 hours ago, darmody said:

Dorne leaves the war because literally four people are captured or killed? Why?

Because those four people were the only ones who wanted to go to war. Most Dornish lords would have been happier keeping their men at home, working the fields and managing the towns.

When their Princess demanded they go to war, many of them were willing to do so because they're feudal lords and that's what their oath is all about. But now that she and her supporters are (as far as any knows) dead, those lords aren't being called to war, so they're doing what they'd prefer to do. That's how medieval armies work. That's how human beings work.

In order to make it make no sense, you have to assume that there's some other Ellaria waiting to seize power and use it to go to war, and who has the strength to pull it off. But that's ridiculously implausible. Most likely, her successor is one of Oberyn's other daughters—that is, a teenaged girl who'd presumably chosen not to become a "sand snake" when given the option by Oberyn, and who'd definitely chosen not to join her three sisters in the rebellion. But even if it's not Sarella Sand or whoever, it's almost certainly someone who has neither the inclination nor the power to take Dorne into a war.

So, when Cersei and Tyrion are both sure that Dorne is out of the war, that's perfectly plausible. There's no reason to doubt it, unless you so desperately want to find something to complain about that you're willing to ignore what we've seen in the show and invent a different story that has something in it worth complaining about.

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