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(Spoilers) - The War makes no sense


Tyrion1991

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I have been reading this thread and I have to say that it has been an awesome read. @Megorova has provided some of the absolute greatest fluffery in trying to come up with ways to cover the plothole of how Euron and the Iron Islands could replenish the Iron Fleet/build 1,000 ships despite lacking the manpower or resources to do so and also how Cersie, who was friendless and alone all of season 6 except for Qyburn and UnGregor, could effortlessly pull off the greatest terrorist attack in Westerosi history and still get installed as Queen of the 7 kingdoms (whose authority no one outside of the Westerlands, Crownlands, and Kingslanding should recognize) just by being the closest in proximity to the throne.

The war makes no damn sense and literally relies on Dany and her allies making stupefying mistakes that allow Cersie and Euron to take advantage of the situation and come out on top.

here are just a few things to consider that someone else pointed out:

  1. Why aren't the Reach and Dornish armies already mobilized and at their borders awaiting the order to march on Kingslanding?
  2. Why are Illaria and all the Sand Fakes on Dragonstone together instead of just Illaria meeting Dany and the Sand Fakes marching at the head of the Dornish army either through the Reach or through the Stormlands onward to Kingslanding?
  3. How is Olenna, who is a lifetime player of the game and who has alliances with basically all the houses in the Reach through marriages or what not, so easily betrayed just because Tarly switched sides?
  4. Why is Tyrion, who is Tywin's best student, forgetting that wars can be just as easily won with the quill as with the sword and is not reaching out to all the houses within the 7 kingdoms in order to find Dany allies?
  5. Why is Varys, whose whole life has been dependent on his intelligence gathering capabilities, just sitting back not even doing anything to actually gather intel? Did he already know that Qyburn the Creepy would discover that his control over the little birds was only possible through sweets?
  6. why didn't Dany and her allies set up a blockade of Blackwater Bay so no ships could enter or leave?

these 6 things not being done on Team Dany's side, and I am sure there are more, are the main reasons why Cersie was not defeated in 2 or 3 episodes. That and of course because...reasons

 

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1 hour ago, falcotron said:

1. Because those four people were the only ones who wanted to go to war. Most Dornish lords would have been happier keeping their men at home, working the fields and managing the towns.

2. When their Princess demanded they go to war, many of them were willing to do so because they're feudal lords and that's what their oath is all about. But now that she and her supporters are (as far as any knows) dead, those lords aren't being called to war, so they're doing what they'd prefer to do. That's how medieval armies work. That's how human beings work.

In order to make it make no sense, you have to assume that there's some other Ellaria waiting to seize power and use it to go to war, and who has the strength to pull it off. But that's ridiculously implausible. Most likely, her successor is one of Oberyn's other daughters—that is, a teenaged girl who'd presumably chosen not to become a "sand snake" when given the option by Oberyn, and who'd definitely chosen not to join her three sisters in the rebellion. But even if it's not Sarella Sand or whoever, it's almost certainly someone who has neither the inclination nor the power to take Dorne into a war.

So, when Cersei and Tyrion are both sure that Dorne is out of the war, that's perfectly plausible. There's no reason to doubt it, unless you so desperately want to find something to complain about that you're willing to ignore what we've seen in the show and invent a different story that has something in it worth complaining about.

 It might be possible to write worse nonsense than this, but it would be difficult. 

1. I guess you've been consulting the same phantom polling service that Megorova has been using. How do you know that those were the only four people in Dorne who wanted to go to war? Would you mind sharing the name of the pollsters who determined this and give us the data they collected? Dornish lords would have an interest in maintaining their own lands. That does not mean that they would be unwilling to go to war, certainly no more than other lords. Do you deny that the lords of the Vale took their men to war?

You may choose to believe that the new leader would be anti-war, but where is the evidence to back this assertion? Terms like "most likely" and "presumably" cannot legitimately be used to jump to the conclusion that a leader would have only peace-loving inclinations. You also don't deal with the ridiculous move the Sand Snakes made. Why the hell would all of them go to Dragonstone? 

If you had bothered to watch the show with any seriousness at all, you would know that the facts argue strongly against your position. In Dorne, there is a strong desire for revenge against the Lannisters. Prince Oberyn showed this. Also, some dialogue in Season 5, "The House of Black and White," shows this:

DORAN: You would have me go to war?

ELLARIA: The whole country would have you go to war.

DORAN: Then we are lucky the whole country does not decide.

ELLARIA: The Sand Snakes are with me. They have the love of their people. They will avenge your father while you sit here in your chair doing nothing.

Doran says nothing. Cut back to Trystane and Myrcella in the Water Gardens.

 

Notice that Doran makes no attempt to deny the truth of Ellaria's assertions. The essence of his argument is--I'm the leader. I'll make the decisions. An obvious conclusion is that once Doran is gone, the southern kingdom will be willing, even enthusiastic, about attacking the so-called "queen" in King's Landing. 

Also critics, bloggers, and posters have noted something important about the prince's death scene. As one of them wrote, "We see the faces of Doran's other guards, impassive as they watch him die. Clearly, almost everyone else in Dorne agrees with Ellaria."

 

1 hour ago, The Golden Wolf said:

I have been reading this thread and I have to say that it has been an awesome read. @Megorova has provided some of the absolute greatest fluffery in trying to come up with ways to cover the plothole of how Euron and the Iron Islands could replenish the Iron Fleet/build 1,000 ships despite lacking the manpower or resources to do so and also how Cersie, who was friendless and alone all of season 6 except for Qyburn and UnGregor, could effortlessly pull off the greatest terrorist attack in Westerosi history and still get installed as Queen of the 7 kingdoms (whose authority no one outside of the Westerlands, Crownlands, and Kingslanding should recognize) just by being the closest in proximity to the throne.

The war makes no damn sense and literally relies on Dany and her allies making stupefying mistakes that allow Cersie and Euron to take advantage of the situation and come out on top.

here are just a few things to consider that someone else pointed out:

  1. Why aren't the Reach and Dornish armies already mobilized and at their borders awaiting the order to march on Kingslanding?
  2. Why are Illaria and all the Sand Fakes on Dragonstone together instead of just Illaria meeting Dany and the Sand Fakes marching at the head of the Dornish army either through the Reach or through the Stormlands onward to Kingslanding?
  3. How is Olenna, who is a lifetime player of the game and who has alliances with basically all the houses in the Reach through marriages or what not, so easily betrayed just because Tarly switched sides?
  4. Why is Tyrion, who is Tywin's best student, forgetting that wars can be just as easily won with the quill as with the sword and is not reaching out to all the houses within the 7 kingdoms in order to find Dany allies?
  5. Why is Varys, whose whole life has been dependent on his intelligence gathering capabilities, just sitting back not even doing anything to actually gather intel? Did he already know that Qyburn the Creepy would discover that his control over the little birds was only possible through sweets?
  6. why didn't Dany and her allies set up a blockade of Blackwater Bay so no ships could enter or leave?

these 6 things not being done on Team Dany's side, and I am sure there are more, are the main reasons why Cersie was not defeated in 2 or 3 episodes. That and of course because...reasons

 

A pretty good summary. I'm not sure I could do better. There are more problems than you listed, but hey, it's a good idea to keep your posts down to a reasonable size. 

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18 minutes ago, Jabul said:

 It might be possible to write worse nonsense than this, but it would be difficult. 

1. I guess you've been consulting the same phantom polling service that Megorova has been using. How do you know that those were the only four people in Dorne who wanted to go to war? Would you mind sharing the name of the pollsters who determined this and give us the data they collected? Dornish lords would have an interest in maintaining their own lands. That does not mean that they would be unwilling to go to war, certainly no more than other lords. Do you deny that the lords of the Vale took their men to war?

You may choose to believe that the new leader would be anti-war, but where is the evidence to back this assertion? Terms like "most likely" and "presumably" cannot legitimately be used to jump to the conclusion that a leader would have only peace-loving inclinations. You also don't deal with the ridiculous move the Sand Snakes made. Why the hell would all of them go to Dragonstone? 

If you had bothered to watch the show with any seriousness at all, you would know that the facts argue strongly against your position. In Dorne, there is a strong desire for revenge against the Lannisters. Prince Oberyn showed this. Also, some dialogue in Season 5, "The House of Black and White," shows this:

DORAN: You would have me go to war?

ELLARIA: The whole country would have you go to war.

DORAN: Then we are lucky the whole country does not decide.

ELLARIA: The Sand Snakes are with me. They have the love of their people. They will avenge your father while you sit here in your chair doing nothing.

Doran says nothing. Cut back to Trystane and Myrcella in the Water Gardens.

 

Notice that Doran makes no attempt to deny the truth of Ellaria's assertions. The essence of his argument is--I'm the leader. I'll make the decisions. An obvious conclusion is that once Doran is gone, the southern kingdom will be willing, even enthusiastic, about attacking the so-called "queen" in King's Landing. 

Also critics, bloggers, and posters have noted something important about the prince's death scene. As one of them wrote, "We see the faces of Doran's other guards, impassive as they watch him die. Clearly, almost everyone else in Dorne agrees with Ellaria."

 

A pretty good summary. I'm not sure I could do better. There are more problems than you listed, but hey, it's a good idea to keep your posts down to a reasonable size. 

yes and the assertion that we need Cersie to last until season 8 playing the villain role because she is human is not really a good point. we are at the goal line with Game of Thrones, and in the last season the only thing we should be concerned with is will the Realms of Men be able to defeat the coming Long Night. not "will they defeat the Night King and then turn around and defeat Cersie who should have been dead a long time ago but isn't and was left alone to rebuild her forces to face what will be a seriously tired North-Vale-Dany coalition because....reasons?"

 

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4 hours ago, Megorova said:

:rolleyes:

Think again.

I'll give you a few more clues:

1. Qyburn in KL gives to Birds sweets. But how did he lured to his side, Birds that live away from KL, in Dorne, in the North, etc?

2. In one of earlier seasons, one of Birds gave to Barristan Selmy, a scroll with royal pardom from King Robbert to Jorah Mormont.

This is that scroll:

https://qph.ec.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-d080a48ae58be514ff199ae475191ab3

Do you think raven :D brought this scroll from Westeros to Essos?

Or that the Bird that gave it, came all the way from King's Landing?

3. When Ser Barristan asked the boy, who gave it to you?, did the boy replied?

1 + 2 + 3 = ?

 

One more hint: Dany - pregnancy - Jorah - Varys - King Robert - Varys - poisoners.

Any ideas?

Tywin sent the pardon, as I recall, through Varys. When Ser Barristan asked the kid who sent the message, the kid shows him the seal, which bears the mark of the Hand of the King. 

 

I don't imagine Varys' network consisted entirely of lowborn children, because that would be stupid. Actually, we know he employed adults, because we saw him recruit Rozz. I assume he recruited high-class spies as well. He knew about all levels of society, and could have information sent back and forth between continents. Street urchins can't do that alone. 

My presumption was Cersei relied upon the children because they'd fly under the radar of her enemies. Just like they didn't bother about a disgraced maester and an undead rapist/murderer. If she employed Varys' whole network, she'd risk being noticed by using adults with profile. Unless no one's paying attention. 

 

How did Qyburn lure far-flung birds? I assume that once he won over a handful of them in King's Landing the rest of Varys' network fell into their hands automatically. (Varys either doesn't know or he's suppressing the information to hide his diminished capacity from Dany Dragons.) Because that's the level at which the show has been written last few seasons. 

 

What all this adds up to, I don't know. Cersei was using spies for...things. And stuff. 

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1 hour ago, The Golden Wolf said:

yes and the assertion that we need Cersie to last until season 8 playing the villain role because she is human is not really a good point. we are at the goal line with Game of Thrones, and in the last season the only thing we should be concerned with is will the Realms of Men be able to defeat the coming Long Night. not "will they defeat the Night King and then turn around and defeat Cersie who should have been dead a long time ago but isn't and was left alone to rebuild her forces to face what will be a seriously tired North-Vale-Dany coalition because....reasons?"

 

I agree with almost all your points of the problems with the war. Was reading the Princess and the Queen over the weekend and seriously they should have just copied that book regarding the intial development of the war. 

I do think its interesting to keep cersei around for the end. How they did it is a seperate issue but the why of it I can understand.

At the end of the day, this series is about death and how we decide to live our lives in the face of it. What gives those lives meaning. The folly of living ones live striving to achieve power and pursuing naked ambition when in the end you will die to. The legacy we leave behind - i.e. what remains of us after we die - is what matters. But not legacy in the Tywin Lannister sense, but legacy in the Ned Stark sense of leaving behind actual humans you have positively shaped and who miss you not because of political reasons but because they loved you. 

Mortality is the central human condition and the the key diferentionator between humans and the gods in the ancient greek tales. The white walkers/ others are literally death personified. Humans being what we are, it makes sense that some people will band together in the face of this existential threat. 

Yet at the same time it makes sense that others will not. Just like some humans choose to put themselves above everythign else and live selfishly in the face of mortality, it makes sense to explore that in the face of mortality personified in the white walkers. Of course there is someone who is willing to sell out the living in order to have a higher chance of fulfilling their own ambition and to take advantage of the apocalpyse. It wouldn’t be a full exploration of humanity’s response to the apocalypse if you didn’t have that person. Just like there were people willing to plunge the continent into war to advance their position, i.e. bring death to thousands - there has to be people willing to advance their position in the face of literal death.

That ultimatley is the true evil of the story. Good and evil implies a choice. The NK operates beyond choice. He is just fulfilling the program the Children gave him. Cersei on the other hand is making active choices about what she values and what is important to her in the face of this threat. Those choices are leading her down a path that is the true evil and has always been the evil in this story. Its just a heightened and more extreme version of the horrible choices we have seen since the beggining of this tale. The true culmination of the absurdity of the game of thrones and the use of war as a political tool to advance purely selfish interests. 

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4 hours ago, Beardy the Wildling said:

Is it time to break out the peppermint shots, or should I wait for Megorova to admit she's trying way too hard to cover for things D & D didn't think about/fudged to give Lena Headey a longer contract and keep some human villains around?

I think they could have written a good war and kept Cersei around. 

I think they fudged not because of that. But in order to keep Cersei around AND have Cersei kill Elaria and Olena AND have Jon/Dany decide they needed an armistace with her AND have them go beyond the wall to give NK a dragon. 

They set up a huge challege for themselves with the needle they needed to thread in the five piece venn diagram. The only way they could hit all of that was to ignore the geo poliics of westeros established in the books and make The protagonists dumb

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15 minutes ago, jcmontea said:

I think they could have written a good war and kept Cersei around. 

I think they fudged not because of that. But in order to keep Cersei around AND have Cersei kill Elaria and Olena AND have Jon/Dany decide they needed an armistace with her AND have them go beyond the wall to give NK a dragon. 

They set up a huge challege for themselves with the needle they needed to thread in the five piece venn diagram. The only way they could hit all of that was to ignore the geo poliics of westeros established in the books and make The protagonists dumb

True that. Cersei could still be around and the war could have made sense, but that would leave a lot of... let's call them 'extrinsic factors' dangling around by the time the seventh season ended and only six (perhaps) slightly longer-than-usual episodes remain to the show.

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46 minutes ago, Beardy the Wildling said:

True that. Cersei could still be around and the war could have made sense, but that would leave a lot of... let's call them 'extrinsic factors' dangling around by the time the seventh season ended and only six (perhaps) slightly longer-than-usual episodes remain to the show.

You should read this. Super interesting analysis of the geopolitics of westeros by one of the beter geopolitical analyst firms out there. They did a april fools version this year for GoT.

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/geopolitics-ice-fire/

interestingly enough the whole thing went very close to how they predicted. The one thing they got wrong was that Dany would land at Dragonstone instead of the Reach. 

But they got alot right: 

1.) The dragons would be of no value in an attempt to root out the Lannisters because Dany would not attack King’s Landing

2.) Cersei would not be defeated since rooting her out would be very tough 

3.) cersei had problems with the iron bank. They didn’t predict she would solve it but they got the issue right. 

4.) the northern alliance and that Dany would move north first 

5.) only after defeating the NK would Dany be able able to move on KL as at that point she would have the prestige to win everyone over to her side and be able to truly cut off KL from all its hinterlands. 

of course, there is a difference between high level things making sense and the particulars making sense, but interesting analysis none the less. 

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6 minutes ago, jcmontea said:

5.) only after defeating the NK would Dany be able able to move on KL as at that point she would have the prestige to win everyone over to her side and be able to truly cut off KL from all its hinterlands. 

I think this is a very good point and something which is very likely to happen. 
Dany need the people of Westeros behind her if she's to be a successful queen. Simply storming in, killing Cersei and then place herself on the throne is not enough to rally the people behind her, if anything it would have the reverse effect and she'd be seen as a invading conqueror.

By saving the North and by extension the entire realm, Dany get's the goodwill she needs, and if she conquers Kings Landing and depose Cersei after doing this she will not be seen as a invading conqueror, but as a savior.

I've not come to conquer the North. I'm coming to save the North.
In season 8 she'd be able to replace "North" with "Realm".

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22 minutes ago, MinscS2 said:

I think this is a very good point and something which is very likely to happen. 
Dany need the people of Westeros behind her if she's to be a successful queen. Simply storming in, killing Cersei and then place herself on the throne is not enough to rally the people behind her, if anything it would have the reverse effect and she'd be seen as a invading conqueror.

By saving the North and by extension the entire realm, Dany get's the goodwill she needs, and if she conquers Kings Landing and depose Cersei after doing this she will not be seen as a invading conqueror, but as a savior.

I've not come to conquer the North. I'm coming to save the North.
In season 8 she'd be able to replace "North" with "Realm".

It's like what Stannis intended to do, minus the daughter-slaughter XD

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1 hour ago, MinscS2 said:

I think this is a very good point and something which is very likely to happen. 
Dany need the people of Westeros behind her if she's to be a successful queen. Simply storming in, killing Cersei and then place herself on the throne is not enough to rally the people behind her, if anything it would have the reverse effect and she'd be seen as a invading conqueror.

By saving the North and by extension the entire realm, Dany get's the goodwill she needs, and if she conquers Kings Landing and depose Cersei after doing this she will not be seen as a invading conqueror, but as a savior.

I've not come to conquer the North. I'm coming to save the North.
In season 8 she'd be able to replace "North" with "Realm".

I agree. its very likely to happen. also ties in well with Book Dany's thoughts about what Kings and Queens are for at the end of the day. 

after reading this geopolitical futures piece the probability i assign to this is even higher since they pretty much called how the war between Cersei and Dany was going to go. the only other big thing they missed aside from where Dany would land was that was that Dany would try and reach an armistice with Cersei. but at the end of the day, that was just a detail. 

I had read this in april. and not sure how i forgot it and began to think Cersei was going to die in season 7 by the time July rolled around. 

54 minutes ago, Beardy the Wildling said:

It's like what Stannis intended to do, minus the daughter-slaughter XD

There have always been interesting parallels between Dany and the Mannis 

- both convinced they are the rightful rulers 

- both with a certain penchant for fire and burning people alive as their preferred method of execution 

- both with strong notions of duty 

- both with a connection to Dragonstone 

- both with red priestesses proclaiming they are the one who was promissed 

Then there are the interesting contrasts in that one is clearly the false chosen one trope and the other very well could be the or one of the actual chosen ones. I think those contrasts are really highlighted twice on the TV show. 

- 1x10 we see Dany perform an actual miracle and bring powerful weapons out of the fire 

- 2x1 we see Stannis put on a farce of a show to pretend he is pulling a powerful weapon out of the fire 

- 5x9 we see both of them in desperate straights and on the verge of defeat. Stannis offers up a sacrifice to the gods yet no help comes in contrast to Dany where actual help from the skies comes to save her and whisk her away from danger. 

Would make sense then that she ends up winning the throne for herself and/ or her family (e.g. baby, jon) that she does it by employing Stannis's strategy and once again showing that Stannis was right about a great many things except he got the person wrong. he was not the hero of the tale that would execute on his plans. 

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17 hours ago, Megorova said:

Soldier #2. Or was it #3?

He said that he wanted to come to KL, and see Red Keep, Great Sept of Baelor, and Dragon Pit <- tourists' atractions ^_^ Also the way he was saying it, it sounded 'I want to gawk at Baelor's Sept, and make a few selfies there', and not 'I want to go to Baelors Sept, and pray there'.

No. Baelor's Sept is special. Not only because it's biggest ever build. But also because it was build by a Targaryen, who was simultaniously King and Maester. And since his reign this Sept was used as a crypt for all rulers of 7K, and their family members.

...

I ask you who says that the Great Sept of Baelor is just a museum/crypt, and your answer is that a single soldier indicates this. Not says it, just makes a few comments that Megorova can interpret in a way that supports a very weak assertion. 

Yes, Baelor's Sept is special. People pray there; major ceremonies, such as important funerals, royal weddings, and even a public confession of a former Hand, are held there; the place has existed for a long time as a powerful symbol of the alliance between the crown and the faith. Obviously the place is extremely special, rather like, oh say, the Vatican. 

9 hours ago, Beardy the Wildling said:

Is it time to break out the peppermint shots, or should I wait for Megorova to admit she's trying way too hard to cover for things D & D didn't think about/fudged to give Lena Headey a longer contract and keep some human villains around?

Who knows? I sometimes wonder if the entire "the war makes sense" effort on this thread might not be an extended exercise in trolling. That, at least, would be an interesting result. 

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18 hours ago, Jabul said:

It most assuredly is an institution, and an extremely important one in Westeros.

I'm sorry, but A.R.E. Y.O.U. S.E.R.I.O.U.S.???????

Kingsguards are just SEVEN PEOPLE in total.

They are personal bodyguards of King. Their Lord Commander is part of Small Council. But six others are just knights. GOOD knights, but not someone who is really important for Westeros -> for example, when Meryn Trant was killed, did it overturned Westeros? no, it didn't.

18 hours ago, Jabul said:

Changed their style???? Do you honestly believe that is all she did? Can you tell me who the Lord Commander is now? I don't think there even is one. Can you name more than one member? Perhaps you can do that, but I'm not sure how many show viewers could do so.

Robert Baratheon's Kingsguards: Jaime Lannister, Preston Greenfield, Mandon Moore, Barristan Selmy, Meryn Trant, Boros Blount and Arys Oakheart.

Cersei has DOZENS of guards. And as I already said - her new people are nameless, and faceless. Literally faceless -> all of Black Guards wear helmets, that cover upper part of their faces (only mouth and chin is visible), to conceal their identity.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yec3ba0aNh8

I even doubt whether at least some of them previously were knights. They are mercenaries, professional assassins, militants, thugs, fighters, enforcers. Their service and loyalty are bought with gold.

18 hours ago, Jabul said:

Would anyone at all believe that The Thing has taken sacred vows? And we have that important source of deeds, The Book of Brothers. Really ought to have an interesting entry for the main member of the guard, right? Something along the lines of--

GRRR, RRRNNN, AARR, ARF

S6E3:

"JAIME is admiring GREGOR.

JAIME: What did you do to him exactly? I haven't been able to get a clear answer.

QYBURN: Oh, a number of things.

JAIME: Does he understand what we’re saying? I mean, to the extent that he ever understood complete sentences in the first place.

GREGOR turns his head to JAIME. JAIME recoils.

QYBURNS: He understands well enough."

He didn't changed much ^_^

Also even before he wasn't a knight.

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Kingsguard

"In order to protect the king and the royal family night and day, the seven-man Kingsguard must rely to some degree on others. Prince Joffrey Baratheon has Sandor Clegane as his sworn shield, other knights are trusted with the king's security when the entire Kingsguard meets in White Sword Tower, and the queen may be guarded by household knights (e.g., Queen Cersei Lannister, who is protected by Vylarr and his red cloaks).

Robert dies after being gored by a boar, and his successor, King Joffrey I Baratheon, dismisses the aged Lord Commander of the Kingsguard, Ser Barristan Selmy. This breaks tradition, as all previous Kingsguard served for life. Joffrey elevates his uncle, Jaime, to Lord Commander and adds to the Kingsguard Sandor Clegane, who is not a knight."

The Mountain is Cersei's shield. And other Black Guards are equals, they don't have a commander, or someone who is above others, they all equally serve. Cersei's current employment policy, is that she's the only one who holds the power, she doesn't give any power to others. She won't repeat the same mistake, as she did with High Sparrow by making him High Septon, or her uncle Kevan, whom she made member of Small Council.

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2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Also even before he wasn't a knight.

No, he very definitely was a knight. Are you mixing up the Mountain (Gregor) and his brother the Hound (Sandor)?

Gregor's knighthood (and Sandor's lack of one) is pretty central to his brother's arc, and to the series' examination of knighthood vs. chivalry.

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2 hours ago, Megorova said:

I'm sorry, but A.R.E. Y.O.U. S.E.R.I.O.U.S.???????

Kingsguards are just SEVEN PEOPLE in total.

They are personal bodyguards of King. Their Lord Commander is part of Small Council. But six others are just knights. GOOD knights, but not someone who is really important for Westeros -> for example, when Meryn Trant was killed, did it overturned Westeros? no, it didn't.

Robert Baratheon's Kingsguards: Jaime Lannister, Preston Greenfield, Mandon Moore, Barristan Selmy, Meryn Trant, Boros Blount and Arys Oakheart.

Cersei has DOZENS of guards. And as I already said - her new people are nameless, and faceless. Literally faceless -> all of Black Guards wear helmets, that cover upper part of their faces (only mouth and chin is visible), to conceal their identity.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yec3ba0aNh8

I even doubt whether at least some of them previously were knights. They are mercenaries, professional assassins, militants, thugs, fighters, enforcers. Their service and loyalty are bought with gold.

S6E3:

"JAIME is admiring GREGOR.

JAIME: What did you do to him exactly? I haven't been able to get a clear answer.

QYBURN: Oh, a number of things.

JAIME: Does he understand what we’re saying? I mean, to the extent that he ever understood complete sentences in the first place.

GREGOR turns his head to JAIME. JAIME recoils.

QYBURNS: He understands well enough."

He didn't changed much ^_^

Also even before he wasn't a knight.

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Kingsguard

"In order to protect the king and the royal family night and day, the seven-man Kingsguard must rely to some degree on others. Prince Joffrey Baratheon has Sandor Clegane as his sworn shield, other knights are trusted with the king's security when the entire Kingsguard meets in White Sword Tower, and the queen may be guarded by household knights (e.g., Queen Cersei Lannister, who is protected by Vylarr and his red cloaks).

Robert dies after being gored by a boar, and his successor, King Joffrey I Baratheon, dismisses the aged Lord Commander of the Kingsguard, Ser Barristan Selmy. This breaks tradition, as all previous Kingsguard served for life. Joffrey elevates his uncle, Jaime, to Lord Commander and adds to the Kingsguard Sandor Clegane, who is not a knight."

The Mountain is Cersei's shield. And other Black Guards are equals, they don't have a commander, or someone who is above others, they all equally serve. Cersei's current employment policy, is that she's the only one who holds the power, she doesn't give any power to others. She won't repeat the same mistake, as she did with High Sparrow by making him High Septon, or her uncle Kevan, whom she made member of Small Council.

Huh? Some of your responses have. been strange, but this one doesn't even make sense.

"The Kingsguard are just seven people In total": Did you read the definition I provided in my post? Do you know what a definition is? Where, in the definition I provided or in any satisfactory definition of the term "institution," does it say that any organization having less than 8 people can't qualify? If, say, a city council has nine members, then it can be an institution. If it has only 6 members, however, it doesn't qualify. This is rampant nonsense. 

The concepts of honor and tradition are extremely important in Westeros. The assertion that the knights of the Kingsguard are merely good knights flies in the face of logic, history, and common sense. Besides, the fact that the Lord Commander is part of the Small Council can't just be waved aside. This one fact argues strongly against your position. Or perhaps you want to argue that the council isn't an institution, or changes from being to not being and institution, based on its current size. 

Meryn Trant was killed, and this didn't overturn Westeros. Therefore, the Kingsguard is not an institution. Or perhaps you want to say that Trant's death didn't overturn Westeros, and therefore the organization that guards the king isn't really important. Sheesh, your grade in logic must have been lower than the scores that the lords of the Reach received in history and mathematics. 

Of course, your post misses the most important point I was making: The utterly creepy nature of the Cersei's court would turn off just about anyone who has any sense of Westerosi traditions. This creepiness includes, Qyburn, the Black Guards, incest, the elevation to high office of a man/thing that confessed to the rape and murder of a princess, etc. Anyone, including the lords of the Reach, coming into the throne room would almost certainly have had the feeling they were entering the Westerosi equivalent of Frankenstein's Lab or The House of Dracula. 

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5 hours ago, jcmontea said:

- 5x9 we see both of them in desperate straights and on the verge of defeat. Stannis offers up a sacrifice to the gods yet no help comes in contrast to Dany where actual help from the skies comes to save her and whisk her away from danger. 

The most interesting thing for Stannis is that the gods actually do answer. We see the freezing mists vanish, and when we next see Stannis's army, the snows have melted and they have no problem marching onward.

But Stannis was asking for the wrong thing. Sacrificing his daughter destroyed his army's morale. Their morale was actually his biggest problem, not the mists. All of the sellswords desert, and hundreds of other men, and those who fight on are clearly dispirited.

It's almost like the gods were trolling him.

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6 minutes ago, Jabul said:

Of course, your post misses the most important point I was making: The utterly creepy nature of the Cersei's court would turn off just about anyone who has any sense of Westerosi traditions. This creepiness includes, Qyburn, the Black Guards, incest, the elevation to high office of a man/thing that confessed to the rape and murder of a princess, etc. Anyone, including the lords of the Reach, coming into the throne room would almost certainly have had the feeling they were entering the Westerosi equivalent of Frankenstein's Lab or The House of Dracula. 

Agreed. The show has gone out of its way to make it actually feel creepy, in a way that Frankenstein's Lab or the House of Dracula haven't felt creepy for generations. To most viewers, Frankenstein is Gene Wilder, or even Tim Curry, or at best Peter Cushing. But Qyburn is legitimately creepy. That was impressive enough in the novels, but making it work on TV was a pretty good feat.

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14 hours ago, darmody said:

I don't imagine Varys' network consisted entirely of lowborn children, because that would be stupid. Actually, we know he employed adults, because we saw him recruit Rozz. I assume he recruited high-class spies as well.

My presumption was Cersei relied upon the children because they'd fly under the radar of her enemies.

Finally we're getting somewhere.

 

Did all of Varys' Birds knew who was their master?

Did all of them were recruited by Varys personally?

Did Varys himself was traveling all over Westeros and Essos, to create his network?

Obvious answer to all three of them is - No.

14 hours ago, darmody said:

How did Qyburn lure far-flung birds? I assume that once he won over a handful of them in King's Landing the rest of Varys' network fell into their hands automatically.

Birds recruited MORE birds. In both cases - when Varys was in the process of Network's making, and later when Qyburn has stolen this network.

"QYBURN: Now remember, if any of your friends like sweets or need help, they can always come to me. All I need in return are whispers."

But what about Birds that live far from King's Landing? It's obvious that Qyburn won't leave KL and Cersei, to go and recruit/re-recruit Birds in distant locations. So they won't ever even meet Qyburn. So how can Qyburn persuade them to change their allegiance towards Varys, and to go over to Cersei's side? The answer to this question is also obvious - he WON'T, furthermore there's no need for that. Once Varys had many Birds close to him, he used them to further spread his web. Other Birds never met Varys, didn't knew Varys, or about Varys. They didn't knew who was their powerful and influential benefactor, who was their master, that gave them orders, and for whom they were gathering information.

The most valuable characteristic of spy network is its secrecy.

There's no need for master/client and informant (or hitman), to know each others identities.

Good example is The Bodyguard movie with Whitney Houston and Kevin Kostner.

Spoiler

"FRANK: I think this is no maniac. He knows what he's doing.

There is a long, long silence. Nicki continues crying. Finally --

NICKI: You're right. He does.

FRANK: Tell me about it.

She doesn't reply.

FRANK: Who is it, Nicki?

NICKI: He almost got Fletcher today...

FRANK: How do we stop him?

NICKI: ...my darling Fletcher...

FRANK: Who is it?

NICKI: I don't know. I don't know.

Frank goes to her, treats her gently, like a doctor.

FRANK: You can call him off.

NICKI (shaking her head): He doesn't even know who hired him. He doesn't know who I am and I don't know who he is.

FRANK: How'd you do it?

She seems on the edge of hysteria. Frank takes her face in his hands, strokes her hair, brings her back from the brink.

FRANK: How?

NICKI: ...I went to a bar in East L.A. I asked around... I talked to a man...

FRANK: Name?

NICKI (vague): ...Armando... He arranged it. That's all I know...

FRANK: Is it all paid for?

NICKI (nods): ... and then some... Till it's done.

FRANK: He keeps going until he kills her?

Nicki nods again, lowering her face into her hands.

~~~

We're in someone's POV moving along the hallway. Nicki steps out of the kitchen a few feet ahead and looks in terror toward the CAMERA.

NICKI: No, no... stop... I'm the one who...

A GUNSHOT BLASTS Nicki against the wall, her hand still delicately raised in a classic gesture of restraint.

If one of the Birds will be caught and tortured, it won't be able to reveal master's identity, because he/she himself/herself doesn't know it.

Quote

What all this adds up to, I don't know. Cersei was using spies for...things. And stuff.

He knew about all levels of society, and could have information sent back and forth between continents. Street urchins can't do that alone. 

she'd risk being noticed by using adults with profile

Transfer of that scroll demonstrate, that not only 'whispers' or raven carried messages, can be transfered thru spy network. Other stuff too. Gold for example.

In this manner Varys arranged assassination attempt on Dany.

"Ser Jorah Mormont escorts Daenerys to the bazaar and excuses himself in order to ask the merchant captain if any letters have arrived for him from the west. As he passes a stall he is called over by a young boy, who says that the Spider sends his regards. He hands Jorah a rolled up parchment and says that it is a pardon and he can go home now. Ser Jorah clutches it and looks at it with longing, but when he looks back toward the market where Daenerys is, he realizes that if he is not needed for information anymore it means something is about to happen. So instead of leaving he goes back to Daenerys and keeps an eye on her."

Hitman, poisoned wine, and that scroll arrived with the same merchant's caravan to Vaes Dothrak, send by Varys. Who is also acknowledged his participation in that conspiracy, in S7E2.

But it isn't necessary to send people all the way from KL, to deal with enemies from other locations. In the same manner Qyburn recruited distant birds, thru existing local Birds, those other Birds can hire all sorts of people. So whenever Cersei needs to off someone, Birds that are living in different territories, hire local mercenaries, thugs, goons, to assasin Cersei's enemies.

Hiring can be done like this: 1. Local Chief Birds spy, and gather information. Thru Birds Network they were given lots of money in advance (from KL), and task to track down people that offend Queen Cersei. This Birds doesn't know from where exactly this money comes from, or who comes up with tasks for them. They give first half of money to be paid for each job, to other Birds, and point to them people that should be killed. 2. Second category of Birds are assigned to gather intel, about local murderers, killers, assassins, hitmen, bandits, criminals, maniacs, mercenaries, fighters, sellswords, all sorts of enforcers. Birds secretly approach one of this people, and offer him an assigment to kill certain person. This Birds themselves doesn't know the reason, why that person needs to be killed. They make a business proposal to potential employee, and point out to him intended victim. Either they give those 50% of money in advance, or they just show that they have money. 3. When executor does his job, he's given payment for it. 4. The most promising out of them (those that didn't asked any questions, didn't tried to just take money and run, those that effectively did their job, those whos allegiance could be bought with money) are candidates to become future Black Guards.

It could be questionable, why would Cersei hire those sorts of shady and disturbing people as her Guards. Nevertheless just look who worked for her before - The Mountain is a rapist and child murderer; Maryn Trant was paedophil and sadist; Cersei made Roose Bolton (the skinner and participant of Red Wedding) Warden of The North. 

People thought that Cersei was in King's Landing, under house arrest in Red Keep. They thought that she was alone and powerless. So even if people that badmouthed her, or plotted against Lannisters (Cersei and Jaime), started to suddenly dissapear, or turn up dead in ditches, no one would ever connect it to Cersei. So the fact that people were convinced, that she's out of The Game, played in her favor. 

In Episode 3 she ordered Qyburn to spread Birds Network, and to gather information about who her enemies are, and where they are. She wanted to know this, not out of pure curiosity, or to pointlessly torture herself with thoughts about them. She wanted to deal with all of them NOW. In the same manner, as it was done in Episode 1 by the Mountain. Birds in KL saw that offender, informed Qyburn about him, and he sent the Mountain to kill him. Furthermore Cersei knew where Mountain was, she was pleased with what he did. She started to smile very smugly when he returned.

I think that in Season 8, Varys will fall as a victim of his own Network. It was foreshadowed by D&D, when scene where Varys says to Tyrion "Men can be fickle, but birds I always trust." is followed by a scene where: "CERSEI: Varys's little birds? QYBURN: Your little birds now, your Grace." Cersei will definitely use the Birds, to make a trap for Varys. In his final moments, either Cersei, or Qyburn, or Euron, will reveal to Varys how he helped Cersei to become a sole ruler of 7K. Maybe he will even be killed by his own Birds, in the same manner as died Nicki from The Bodyguard - "No, no... stop... I'm the one who hired you! Noooooo..." 

Let's wait and see, whether it will happen in next season of GOT. And for now, lets stop this discussion about possibility/impossibility of Cersei secretly gathering Black Guards, and other loyal to her servants. Which one of us was right, we will see later. 

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3 hours ago, falcotron said:

The most interesting thing for Stannis is that the gods actually do answer. We see the freezing mists vanish, and when we next see Stannis's army, the snows have melted and they have no problem marching onward.

But Stannis was asking for the wrong thing. Sacrificing his daughter destroyed his army's morale. Their morale was actually his biggest problem, not the mists. All of the sellswords desert, and hundreds of other men, and those who fight on are clearly dispirited.

It's almost like the gods were trolling him.

Interesting. I interpreted that as just the weather turned for no divine reason and the irony was he killed his daughter for absolutley nothing leading to his army deserting. His belief in his specialness was his his downfall. 

Which is another interesting contrast with Daenerys. To the extent she thinks she is special, life has showed her that she is. In the show she is literally fire proof and does the impossible. 

Stannis feel for it all because some witch told him. 

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