(Spoilers) - The War makes no sense

[darmody]

1 hour ago, falcotron said:

Of course you can skip over entire acts. Stories do that all the time. It's not qualitatively any different than skipping over scenes. As long as it's plausible that you could have gotten here from there, and what you skipped over isn't important to the rest of the story, and the rest of the story is interesting, nobody cares.

Look at Foundation—it jumps over 50 years, then 30, then 55, then 20. If you couldn't possibly imagine how things got from the end of The Traders to The Merchant Princes, then it might be a plot hole. But in fact, although we don't really know how things got from the end of The Traders to The Merchant Princes, there are perfectly plausible possibilities that work just fine There's no storytelling flaw there

Don't confuse skipping over time with skipping over scenes or acts. If you can leave something out, then it wasn't a necessary part of your story and it shouldn't properly be referred to as an act. You can't just leave out whole acts. Audiences wouldn't accept it. (Unless you can trick them into thinking it's daring and "experimental," or something.)

Scenes, though they ought ideally to always move the story forward, aren't always necessary. If your aim is to defend a piece of storytelling, you could always say missing information is superfluous. But that's not always the case. Sometimes stories suffer from scenes, dialogue, characters, settings, etc. that aren't there. 

My guess is putting in a scene explaining Dorne's disappearance would've made the show worse. But that's because it isn't any good in D&D's heads, as well as being incomplete onscreen. 

[jcmontea]

44 minutes ago, Jabul said:

Okay, sorry. I was misled by the fact that your post was a reply to my argument against falcotron. I really can't expect you to defend someone else's opinions. I think your opinion on the lack of importance of Dorne is well founded. 

My main problem, and that of other posters, concerning this matter is with Tyrion and the other Targaryen advisers. These people used to be smart. Suddenly, unaccountably, implausibly, they are incredibly dumb. Their failure to communicate further with Dorne is just one example of the larger problem with Season 7. I can get by with leaving this one example out. 

Yup. If they wanted to make Tyrion and Varys look like the two most useless advisors they succeded. 

You want to complain about burning the Tarlys? How about if you two idiots had done your jobs competently maybe she wouldn’t have had to burn those two traitors. 

Was so frustrating seeing them monday morning quarterback when they were objectively failing at their jobs.

[darmody]

1 hour ago, falcotron said:

You're misrepresenting what I said. Nobody needs to "resort to mistruth" to explain the gaps in Foundation, or in any of the thousands and thousands of other stories that skip over bits, and nobody needs to "resort to mistruth" here, either.

You know, both well and poorly-written stories skip over things. Sometimes it's done correctly, and sometimes not. But according to evolutionary theory, natural selection is always done correctly. That's why simply pointing to missing evidence is not enough to discredit it. They fall back on it being the best explanation for the evidence as a whole. Therefore, if mankind exists it must have evolved through natural selection, even if we don't possess all possible evidence demonstrating it. 

That simply doesn't work for stories. A story ended up a certain way, therefore I have to accept the most plausible explanation I can dream up for why it happened? No. I don't have to do any such thing. 

The two subjects really have nothing to do with eachother, except that you think critics of the Dorne storyline argue in bad faith or out of simple ignorance like your experience of creationists. 

[darmody]

22 hours ago, Megorova said:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

"FRANK: I think this is no maniac. He knows what he's doing.

There is a long, long silence. Nicki continues crying. Finally --

NICKI: You're right. He does.

FRANK: Tell me about it.

She doesn't reply.

FRANK: Who is it, Nicki?

NICKI: He almost got Fletcher today...

FRANK: How do we stop him?

NICKI: ...my darling Fletcher...

FRANK: Who is it?

NICKI: I don't know. I don't know.

Frank goes to her, treats her gently, like a doctor.

FRANK: You can call him off.

NICKI (shaking her head): He doesn't even know who hired him. He doesn't know who I am and I don't know who he is.

FRANK: How'd you do it?

She seems on the edge of hysteria. Frank takes her face in his hands, strokes her hair, brings her back from the brink.

FRANK: How?

NICKI: ...I went to a bar in East L.A. I asked around... I talked to a man...

FRANK: Name?

NICKI (vague): ...Armando... He arranged it. That's all I know...

FRANK: Is it all paid for?

NICKI (nods): ... and then some... Till it's done.

FRANK: He keeps going until he kills her?

Nicki nods again, lowering her face into her hands.

~~~

We're in someone's POV moving along the hallway. Nicki steps out of the kitchen a few feet ahead and looks in terror toward the CAMERA.

NICKI: No, no... stop... I'm the one who...

A GUNSHOT BLASTS Nicki against the wall, her hand still delicately raised in a classic gesture of restraint.

People thought that Cersei was in King's Landing, under house arrest in Red Keep. They thought that she was alone and powerless. So even if people that badmouthed her, or plotted against Lannisters (Cersei and Jaime), started to suddenly dissapear, or turn up dead in ditches, no one would ever connect it to Cersei. So the fact that people were convinced, that she's out of The Game, played in her favor. 

In Episode 3 she ordered Qyburn to spread Birds Network, and to gather information about who her enemies are, and where they are. She wanted to know this, not out of pure curiosity, or to pointlessly torture herself with thoughts about them. She wanted to deal with all of them NOW. In the same manner, as it was done in Episode 1 by the Mountain. Birds in KL saw that offender, informed Qyburn about him, and he sent the Mountain to kill him. Furthermore Cersei knew where Mountain was, she was pleased with what he did. She started to smile very smugly when he returned.

... And for now, lets stop this discussion about possibility/impossibility of Cersei secretly gathering Black Guards, and other loyal to her servants. Which one of us was right, we will see later. 

I want to say first off I don't appreciate your "now we're getting somewhere" type-talk. If you have a case to make, just make. Don't play Riddler with me.

I also don't think there's a point in waiting, because we both know the show won't reveal how Cersei got to be queen next season. We already know all they're going to tell us about that. Though no doubt you'll twist new evidence to write even wackier fan-fiction. 

 

I don't like the idea that Cersei can co-opt all or even a significant portion of Varys' network just like that. Although Varys was the one who had to build it up in the first place, which of course is harder work, it robs him of much of his mystique that someone else can become the New Varys simply by handing out treats to kids in King's Landing. But I suppose last season robbed Varys of any and all mystique anyway. 

 

But let's assume she can. People hostile to Cersei--or merely ones who happened to speak out against her--start disappearing, and you think no one will be able to connect it back to Cersei? Why? I mean, maybe not in a court of law, but what does that have to do with Westerosi politics as we know them?

Did it occur to you that we saw Zombie Mountain kill a loudmouthed drunken peasant as opposed to someone who mattered for a reason? If she killed important people, ones whose deaths would help her crawl out from under her enemies' thumbs, her enemies would've noticed. There's no reason to think she was doing so, even far away from King's Landing. 

Being able to have plausible deniability and having layers of intermediaries between you and the people you kill is of course basic espionage. And I assume it would be the sort of thing Cersei's was planning to get back to when the time was right. But deal with all of them NOW? No. If that was her plan, she was stupid and not the supergenius you make her out to be. 

 

 

Did you notice you brought up Black Guards at the end of your post, but spent the body of the post on a different subject, i.e. the hiring of assassins by Cersei through intermediaries. Which is theoretically possible, though we weren't shown that's what she was doing. I must ask again, for the umpteenth time, what this has to do with recruiting a loyal Home Guard with which Cersei could secure the throne after the Septsplosion?

You get that organizing the Black Guard and hiring assassins through a spy network are different things, right? If not, how does it work in your head?

"Hallo, Ser Cutthroat! You don't know me, but I represent Cersei Lannister. You were hired to kill an enemy of hers once, though you didn't know it. I'm here to inform you that you're now obligated to take up her service and make her queen. G'day."

 

Does the fact that she could use the birds to hire assassins through intermediaries mean she could use the birds to hire loyal soldiers in King's Landing without them knowing who they wrre going to serve? That would at least bypass the question of "Who woupd agree to serve the lady under house arrest awaiting trial for regicide?" But I thought your argument previously was that she only approached men she was 1000% sure would follow her. 

Anyway, organizing men to serve an unidentified master would still run into the same problem. Someone would notice a private army in King's Landing. Why wouldn't thet say, "Hey, it must be Cersei! Take her Mad Scientist and pet zombie away." Cersei shouldn't want to risk that. 

 

Killing the dick flasher was meant to show the Mountain is still fearsome and Cersei is coming back, y'all. Only to have it be the more impactfull when the wind is knocked out of her trial by combat plan. Having Qyburn employ spies far and wide prepares the ground for the audience to accept the fact that they substantiated the rumor Cersei had heard about the caches of wildfire. It was not meant to imply that Cersei was soon going to be able to kill and gather into her service whomever she chooses under the noses of her enemies. 

 

[Beardy the Wildling]

1 minute ago, darmody said:

Don't play Riddler with me.

Huh. Maybe Megorova has the same OCD-style compulsion the Riddler has. Would explain so much

[Jabul]

1 hour ago, darmody said:

But she *is* a conqueror, isn't she? Or have I been watching a different show? Ever since her brother died and she coaxed her Dothraki husband to invade Westeros on behalf of their unborn son that's the way I saw her, and my opinion hasn't changed. The show didn't use to hide it,either, though they gave her supposedly noble causes. 

If her goal was to win the people over, she should have been building up diplomatic relations between herself and the lords of Westeros over the seasons. Instead, the show had her trying to be Queen of Easteros, abolishing slavery and whatnot. Even open war in the West, with kings widely recognized as being illegitimate, wasn't enough to bring her over. 

...

Once she's over here, I don't understand the argument in favor of not attacking Cersei directly. Or at least not squeezing off King's Landing. You have what should be the most unpopular monarch in history, and the weakest since the 7 Kingdoms were brought together. And you're there to conquer.

Not cutting off the head first is the perfect example of how standing in the middle of the road can get you run over. She can't be half-in, half-out. Conquer or get off the pot. 

...

In the absence of the Cersei factor I would've said wait for more allies or just be an out-and-out conqueror. But the thing is Dany doesn't need to be a savior to conquer Westeros. In any sort of realistic show Cersei would easily have worse PR than her. 

You make some good points. I'd add that the hand wringing over "Don't be a queen of ashes" is badly overdone. There are multiple possibilities for taking KL and the kingdom. People even approximately as smart as Cersei's advisers were in the previous seasons would see this easily. They would at least discuss some of the possibilities: 

Infiltration and subterfuge. The Targaryen forces have done this repeatedly. KL is about as impenetrable as a Swiss cheese. Her advisers know this. The possibilities for getting agents into the city, attacking soldiers manning the walls from the rear, even getting people to open the gates for the Targ forces are clearly there. Some of these possibilities would very likely cause less suffering for the civilians than would a prolonged siege. 

The Dracarys solution. Dany and her people have learned that the threat from the north is real and terrible. They know a good deal about how weak a ruler the current "queen" is; they know a lot about the terrible things she has done; then she refuses to even agree to a truce so that the zombie army can be fought properly. Daenerys Targayen has her main weapon right there at hand. One Valyrian word and the deed is done. No more Cersei, no more Mountain, no more Kingslayer. Problem solved. Some would say that this is dirty pool. I'm not denying this. But crucifying people isn't exactly a charitable action, is it? As you say, the dragon queen is a conquerer. 

6 hours ago, Count Balerion said:

I do understand wanting to have Cersei around; but it was handled with incredible clumsiness:

1. I still can't get past the sept. The argument has been made that the citizens of KL roughed up a High Septon in the past. But Cersei apparently didn't just kill the High Septon and his sparrows, she abolished the office of High Septon...

2. The position of the nobility. Westeros isn't a modern totalitarian state, and Cersei isn't Stalin. She *might* be able to terrorise KL, but the rest of the country has no particular compulsion to follow her even if they don't elect to go with Dany. Nor do I see any particular reason why they should.

...

I had a vague thought for a more plausible scenario, where Dany apparently wins KL, but ... what are these mysterious murders that keep taking place? Could someone EVIL be lurking somewhere in the Red Keep, weaving an insidious web of murder and torture? What's that screaming in the dungeon?

Or:

Dany: "Surrender or I'll burn the Red Keep."

Cersei: (brings out random "little bird"): "Fine, then you'll also have to burn this innocent child!"

Dany: "Oh noes!"

Neither of those scenarios is the most brilliant thing in the universe; but at least they don't rely on Cersei suddenly being considered "respectable" by Westerosi Public Opinion.

You make good points also. The destruction of the Great Sept and the termination of the office of the High Septon is not something that can be papered over by "Well, High Septons have been killed before." And I don't think there is any credible basis for saying that most of the lords would back Cersei. 

Would you be interested in a new thread, one devoted to discussing more plausible scenarios?

[jcmontea]

2 hours ago, darmody said:

But she *is* a conqueror, isn't she? Or have I been watching a different show? Ever since her brother died and she coaxed her Dothraki husband to invade Westeros on behalf of their unborn son that's the way I saw her, and my opinion hasn't changed. The show didn't use to hide it,either, though they gave her supposedly noble causes. 

what does it mean to be a conqueror though? Technically Daenerys was conquering this year. She established a position in Westeros - Dragonstone, invaded the Reach, got the Northern most region to support her claim and is asserting that she should be in charge of the whole continent. 

2 hours ago, darmody said:

If her goal was to win the people over, she should have been building up diplomatic relations between herself and the lords of Westeros over the seasons. Instead, the show had her trying to be Queen of Easteros, abolishing slavery and whatnot. Even open war in the West, with kings widely recognized as being illegitimate, wasn't enough to bring her over. 

Her main goal clearly wasn't ruling Westeros for a while. She was prioritizing freeing slaves in Essos. As you said, if her sole goal was Westeros she was going about it in a poor way and she certainly would not have proposed marrying a local nobleman. 

2 hours ago, darmody said:

Varys did his one and only service to Dany when he hooked her up with Dorne and the Reach, who in tandem with Yara and her share of the Ironborn meant a goodly share of Westerosi Grrl Power was coming for Cersei. Dany had two kingdoms on her side, and may or may not have known the North and the Vale split off from the crown. Sitting on the throne was a woman with no claim and so far as we know at that point only controlled the Crownlands and the Westerlands. Which is as good a time as any to come over. 

I think Cersei also controls the Stormlands. 

2 hours ago, darmody said:

Would've been nice to have a few Selmys on her side, instead of her motley crew of a court. Not as bad as Cersei's Monster Squad, but she had a bunch of foreigners and a monkey imp kinslayer. It also may not send the best message to bring over foreign armies, including one known for raping and pillaging. But it's better in her mind, even if she plans to conquer Westeros with Westerosi armies, to have them at hand just in case. 

yea

2 hours ago, darmody said:

Once she's over here, I don't understand the argument in favor of not attacking Cersei directly. Or at least not squeezing off King's Landing. You have what should be the most unpopular monarch in history, and the weakest since the 7 Kingdoms were brought together. And you're there to conquer.

Isn't that the plan? To squeeze King's landing but for whatever reason it goes awry when they lose Dorne and Highgarden and then decide to prioritize the threat in the east. 

is the question why she wouldn't attack King's Landing? 

2 hours ago, darmody said:

Not cutting off the head first is the perfect example of how standing in the middle of the road can get you run over. She can't be half-in, half-out. Conquer or get off the pot. 

yea. if she was trying to maximize her chances of winning than clearly the strategy was off. 

2 hours ago, darmody said:

 

As for saving the realm, that would help her PR. And she needs PR help, being the daughter of the Mad King, having a reputation for burning and crucifying people, having known nothing but the East and being surrounded by foreigners, etc. But Dany doesn't know about the Army of the Dead until after Jon informs her, after she's over here. Would've been nice to talk to him back in Mereen, but she's already made the decision to come over, allied as she is with 2 of the 7 kingdoms, and Cersei being about as weak as a queen can be. 

In the absence of the Cersei factor I would've said wait for more allies or just be an out-and-out conqueror. But the thing is Dany doesn't need to be a savior to conquer Westeros. In any sort of realistic show Cersei would easily have worse PR than her. 

not sure Dany really has a choice. she put herself in a position after the loot train to begin the siege of King's Landing. once the northern threat reveals itself though that plan is no longer viable unless she is going to pull a Cersei and ignore it which is clearly not who the character is or what she is all about. 

if she is victorious against the NK though, she will be the savior of the country and that will probably help her finish what she came out to do. did  she have to be the savior to conquer Westeros? no. had their been no northern threat she would have established a siege and it likely would have been successful. 

[jcmontea]

10 minutes ago, Jabul said:

You make some good points. I'd add that the hand wringing over "Don't be a queen of ashes" is badly overdone. There are multiple possibilities for taking KL and the kingdom. People even approximately as smart as Cersei's advisers were in the previous seasons would see this easily. They would at least discuss some of the possibilities: 

Infiltration and subterfuge. The Targaryen forces have done this repeatedly. KL is about as impenetrable as a Swiss cheese. Her advisers know this. The possibilities for getting agents into the city, attacking soldiers manning the walls from the rear, even getting people to open the gates for the Targ forces are clearly there. Some of these possibilities would very likely cause less suffering for the civilians than would a prolonged siege. 

The Dracarys solution. Dany and her people have learned that the threat from the north is real and terrible. They know a good deal about how weak a ruler the current "queen" is; they know a lot about the terrible things she has done; then she refuses to even agree to a truce so that the zombie army can be fought properly. Daenerys Targayen has her main weapon right there at hand. One Valyrian word and the deed is done. No more Cersei, no more Mountain, no more Kingslayer. Problem solved. Some would say that this is dirty pool. I'm not denying this. But crucifying people isn't exactly a charitable action, is it? As you say, the dragon queen is a conquerer

wasn't there a moment in the princess and the queen where Rhaenerya Targaryen decides not go after KL for the time being because she didn't want to destroy the city? 

not sure infiltration would work better per say. really depends on how successful you could be at getting in and how big the army in the city is and how loyal that army is to the regime. could easily turn into block to block urban warfare which would be tough and can easily result in casualty rates of up to 50% for your forces. 

10 minutes ago, Jabul said:

 

You make good points also. The destruction of the Great Sept and the termination of the office of the High Septon is not something that can be papered over by "Well, High Septons have been killed before." And I don't think there is any credible basis for saying that most of the lords would back Cersei. 

Would you be interested in a new thread, one devoted to discussing more plausible scenarios?

 

[Count Balerion]

17 hours ago, Jabul said:

You make some good points. I'd add that the hand wringing over "Don't be a queen of ashes" is badly overdone. There are multiple possibilities for taking KL and the kingdom. People even approximately as smart as Cersei's advisers were in the previous seasons would see this easily. They would at least discuss some of the possibilities: 

Infiltration and subterfuge. The Targaryen forces have done this repeatedly. KL is about as impenetrable as a Swiss cheese. Her advisers know this. The possibilities for getting agents into the city, attacking soldiers manning the walls from the rear, even getting people to open the gates for the Targ forces are clearly there. Some of these possibilities would very likely cause less suffering for the civilians than would a prolonged siege. 

The Dracarys solution. Dany and her people have learned that the threat from the north is real and terrible. They know a good deal about how weak a ruler the current "queen" is; they know a lot about the terrible things she has done; then she refuses to even agree to a truce so that the zombie army can be fought properly. Daenerys Targayen has her main weapon right there at hand. One Valyrian word and the deed is done. No more Cersei, no more Mountain, no more Kingslayer. Problem solved. Some would say that this is dirty pool. I'm not denying this. But crucifying people isn't exactly a charitable action, is it? As you say, the dragon queen is a conquerer. 

You make good points also. The destruction of the Great Sept and the termination of the office of the High Septon is not something that can be papered over by "Well, High Septons have been killed before." And I don't think there is any credible basis for saying that most of the lords would back Cersei. 

Would you be interested in a new thread, one devoted to discussing more plausible scenarios?

(Pardon messy quoting.)

That does sound interesting; I don't know how often I'd post, but it would at least be fun to read and I may have random thoughts. (The other ever-present danger being that it turns into parody.)

***

FWIW, my theory is that, since D&D didn't want 8 seasons (that was HBO; or at least that's my understanding), they had to come up with stuff to fill up the extra season. Hence stuff put in to delay the outcome even in defiance of all plausibility.

[jcmontea]

8 minutes ago, Count Balerion said:

(Pardon messy quoting.)

That does sound interesting; I don't know how often I'd post, but it would at least be fun to read and I may have random thoughts. (The other ever-present danger being that it turns into parody.)

***

FWIW, my theory is that, since D&D didn't want 8 seasons (that was HBO; or at least that's my understanding), they had to come up with stuff to fill up the extra season. Hence stuff put in to delay the outcome even in defiance of all plausibility.

 

I am not sure that is completley true. D&D said for a while there would be 80 episodes than they came down to 73. So if anything it feels more like they cut stuff, perhas muscle and not just fat, versus adding fluff. 

[Count Balerion]

Now that you mention it, they did cut a fairly important scene from the Winterfell storyline, and that did contribute to the problems with that storyline.

[Jabul]

18 hours ago, jcmontea said:

... 

not sure infiltration would work better per say. really depends on how successful you could be at getting in and how big the army in the city is and how loyal that army is to the regime. could easily turn into block to block urban warfare which would be tough and can easily result in casualty rates of up to 50% for your forces. 

 

Yeah, it might not work. In better-written episodes, however, it would at least have been dealt with. Astapor, Yunkai, Meereen, Casterly Rock--at some point, someone on Dragonsone should have said, "Hey, why don't we try something like the techniques that have worked for us before?" 

[Megorova]

19 hours ago, darmody said:

I want to say first off I don't appreciate your "now we're getting somewhere" type-talk. If you have a case to make, just make. Don't play Riddler with me.

By "Finally we're getting somewhere." I was referring to text above it, wrote in bold, this

Quote

I don't imagine Varys' network consisted entirely of lowborn children, because that would be stupid. Actually, we know he employed adults

children fly under the radar of her enemies.

I wasn't intending to insult you, or anything of the sorts.

The thing is, English isn't my native languare, it's my 4th. I don't know it well enough, to use variety of tones/undertones/shades in my wording. Furthermore I'm using Google Translate. So to other people my posts may seem as condescending, pushy, self-assertive, etc. It's problematic to communicate thru writing, when I don't know language well enough, to properly convey/express my intentions/ideas.

19 hours ago, darmody said:

But let's assume she can. People hostile to Cersei--or merely ones who happened to speak out against her--start disappearing, and you think no one will be able to connect it back to Cersei? Why? I mean, maybe not in a court of law, but what does that have to do with Westerosi politics as we know them?

Did it occur to you that we saw Zombie Mountain kill a loudmouthed drunken peasant as opposed to someone who mattered for a reason? If she killed important people, ones whose deaths would help her crawl out from under her enemies' thumbs, her enemies would've noticed. There's no reason to think she was doing so, even far away from King's Landing. 

Somebody killed all Freys. But nobody linked this event to Starks. Even though everybody know that the biggest enemies of Freys are Starks (for the Red Wedding). Nobody connected mass death of Freys to this event. Because as far as everyone knew, the only remaining Starks were Sansa Stark and Jon Snow, and the two of them at that time were at Winterfell. Furthermore people know that this isn't Sansa's or Jon's style. They are not the kind of people to do something like this.

People didn't knew that Arya was still alive. But even if they did knew, they wouldn't think that little Stark girl can accomplish something like this. Nobody knows that Arya trained to be an assassin, trained by Faceless Men.

Even though when every men died, Arya took off her mask, and revealed her real identity, and even said something like "Winter came after Freys, North remembers", general public still doesn't know what actually happened at Twins. Cersei and Jaime talked about this event, and didn't connected it to Starks. Lannister soldiers sent to Twins also said something like "At Twins happend something horrible, so we were sent there to investigate".

So no one won't connect death of Cersei's enemies to Cersei. In that world people die all the time. Cersei's people can kill her enemies by variety of methods - 1. slow poison that will cause victim to become ill (renal failure, hepatic insufficiency, heart failure, ulcer, etc) and die from that illness; 2. in the crowd, to stab intended victim with infected needle, that will cause the wound to become inflamed, and that person will die from sepsis; 3. to put a poisoned spike in a shoe, it will look as if though the victim was bitten by a scorpion, or poisonous spider, or snake, or some other poisonous critter. Or Birds can release poisoned snake in victim's house, or to put a spider into bed; 4. they can arson victim's house, and people will think that the cause of fire is an accident - in the house a candle fell, or a piece of coal fell out of fireplace; 5. they can push the victim to fall off the stairs - people will think that it was just an accident. <- those five methods can be used by kids alone, without additional help from adults.

With added assistance from mercenaries Birds can use even more methods to kill: 1. thugs can start with a victim, a brawl in a tavern, and kill him for whatever made up reason; 2. they can stage murder, somewhere in a back alley, as robbery that went bad; 3. they can use women to lure their victim into a trap, like it was done in Meereen by Sons of Harpy; 4. they can catch a victim, together in a bed with his mistress/lover/whore, and beat both of them to death, to other people it will look, as if though it was done by a jealous ex-lover; 5. they can pretend that they are offering a job in another city, some sort of long-term project, to intended victims. Thus those victims will tell their family members that they are going to work in another city, and go after their new employers. Their fake masters will set up a trap somewhere in deserted place, mass slaughter everyone, and hide their bodies. Months will pass before relatives will start to suspect, that something may have happened.

If people will be offed like that, out of those 10 methods, none of their deaths can be, in any way, connected to Queen Cersei. If people were ignorant enough, not to connect death of Freys wirh Stark family, then they won't made a connection between Queen under house arrest, and deaths happening distances away from KL.

General public doesn't know about Birds Network, so they also wouldn't know that Cersei is aware that people all over 7K are badmouthing her. Furthermore in their opinion, Cersei has no means to know identityes of her enemies, or their whereabouts. If they will suddenly start to die, from various causes, people won't think nothing about it.

19 hours ago, darmody said:

And I assume it would be the sort of thing Cersei's was planning to get back to when the time was right. But deal with all of them NOW? No. If that was her plan, she was stupid and not the supergenius you make her out to be. 

That's the thing, she's not a supergenius. She's just a vicious, evil, vindictive, ravenous, and unforgiving witch. Sansa said as much in S7E1: "You're the military man, but I know her. If you're her enemy, she'll never stop until she's destroyed you. Everyone who's even crossed her, she's found a way to murder." <- and it was even before she had a Birds Network or Qyburn.

19 hours ago, darmody said:

Did you notice you brought up Black Guards at the end of your post, but spent the body of the post on a different subject, i.e. the hiring of assassins by Cersei through intermediaries. Which is theoretically possible, though we weren't shown that's what she was doing. I must ask again, for the umpteenth time, what this has to do with recruiting a loyal Home Guard with which Cersei could secure the throne after the Septsplosion?

You kind of missed the point of that post (though it's not your fault; my own mistake - probably I didn't made it clear enough) - some of those assassins ARE the Black Guards. In point 4. in that post I was referring to Black Guards. Best of recruits hired thru Birds Network were chosen as candidates to become Black Guards. Their loyalty are bought with money. And the fact that they are shady people, isn't bothering Cersei, because she's used to work with all sorts of scoundrels. That's why I also mentioned in that post (or was it in one of other posts?) that she worked with people like Gregor Clegane - rapist and child murderer, Meryn Trant - paedophile and sadist, Roose Bolton - skinner and participant of Red Wedding; add to this list Pycelle - pervert and sex maniac, Freys, Qyburn, those people that brought to her dwarf's head, etc. 

Also I specifically stated in my previous posts - Black Guards and servants for her new court.

1. Black Guards - enforcers.

2. servants.

Servants/courticians/maids are a SEPARATE category. Enforcers she hired thru Birds Network - some of them are assassins that work from shadows, while most diligent and obedient became BG in Red Keep. Though she didn't planned to use them in this manner, before Tommen banned trial by combat. But after his announcement, she summoned best of her fighters to come to KL, she was preparing to deal with people loyal to Tommen.

And servants/courtiers she recruited from already existing poll, present in Red Keep. That post where I wrote 20. points, milestones in Cersei's life, in aftermath of those 20 events, she was observing people in KL's court, for over 30! years. She knew which of those people are really loyal to her, and will chose her as their ruler, over Tommen (because Tommen is a Shmoo). Kings changed (Robert, Joffrey, Tommen), and Queen remained the same person - Cersei. Margaery was just a recent addition. People served to Cersei for many years, and they were loyal to her. She was their Queen, always. While Tommen became their King, since like yesterday. Before that, he was just one of their Queen's children. They had no time to change their view of Tommen, for them he still was just a kid, and not their true ruler. And the reason why they didn't do anything, when she was imprisoned, because they are not fighters/warriors, they are just average people. What could they do? Nothing. That's why when Cersei was released, she created and assembled her own small army (several dozens, or hundreds capable fighters).

Even though Cersei was under house arrest, she wasn't in a complete isolation. She still had servants that tended to her. People that cooked food for her, people that cleaned in her chambers, people that brought wine to her; maids that helped her to bath, to dress herself (there's no way that she wore those dresses by herself, or that it was Qyburn who helped her to tie all that lacing, or to button up the hooks).

Prior trial, one of maids was helping Cersei with her jewelry

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjtPtTUx_ks

0:34, it's the same maid from S7E3, the one that saw Jaime in Cersei's bed, but acted about it as cool as cucumber. Read this:

http://gameofthrones.wikia.com/wiki/Bernadette <- this proves that there were always people loyal to Cersei.

(Look at the people in that video - they are not just lords and royalty, there are also court ladies/maids, and servants. Cersei gathered all sheeps in the Sept, to off at once, everyone who isn't loyal to her.)

Those people that now are black courtiers, were near Cersei all along, the difference is that now we can see them in plain site.

19 hours ago, darmody said:

You get that organizing the Black Guard and hiring assassins through a spy network are different things, right? If not, how does it work in your head?

"Hallo, Ser Cutthroat! You don't know me, but I represent Cersei Lannister. You were hired to kill an enemy of hers once, though you didn't know it. I'm here to inform you that you're now obligated to take up her service and make her queen. G'day."

This is a very simplefied and exegareted description, but in general it is correct.

Candidates are summoned to come to KL, without giving them any explanations why or for what. They were ordered - they're doing what was said.

Uppon arrival they are vetted by Qyburn. Only to those that succesfully passed his probation, he will say something like - "From now on you are serving to her Highness Queen Cersei Lannister, as her personal guards. She is your only master, not King Tommen, not anyone else. She gives orders, you carry them out. And remember - I'm watching you. Smallest mistake, and you will be severely punished. But serve diligently, and you will be rewarded accordingly. So if the Queen will order you to jump, what will you do?" Newest recruit of Black Guards: "I will ask - How high?" Qyburn: "Good dog. Go! Serve and protect!"

Something like that

19 hours ago, darmody said:

But I thought your argument previously was that she only approached men she was 1000% sure would follow her. 

That part was about re-recruitment of servants and maids, from court.

19 hours ago, darmody said:

Does the fact that she could use the birds to hire assassins through intermediaries mean she could use the birds to hire loyal soldiers in King's Landing without them knowing who they wrre going to serve? That would at least bypass the question of "Who woupd agree to serve the lady under house arrest awaiting trial for regicide?"

Murderers that she hired to be her enforcers, wouldn't care about to whom are they serving. Their loyalty is bought with money.

Cersei woudn't recruit people for Black Guards, from existing in KL poll of knights. That would be too risky.

And those that she already hired, won't betray her.

Spoiler

For two reasons. 1. Because Birds, and Qyburn, and other Cersei's maids and servants in Red Keep, are watching them. If any of them will try to contact Tommen, or Kevan, or Pycelle, or anyone who isn't on Cersei's side, they will be killed. 2. Also if somehow they will manage to get thru, what can they say? -

"I was hired by Queen Cersei thru her secret spy network, and on her order killed various people. Recently she summoned me here, to be her personal guard. And now she is plotting to use her secret army to sieze power in KL, and overthrow King Tommen."

And what will those people say? -

"So you're claiming that Queen Cersei, that is currently kept under house arrest, recruited you in... from what town did you say you came from?..."

"No, you don't get it. I never met Queen Cersei personally. I was recruited by some street kid. He's a spy , from her secret network."

"A spy, you say? Go on...You said that she's plotting to overthrow King Tommen? And how is she going to do that?"

"I don't know. I just know that they have some sort of secret ."

"What kind of secret?"

"I have no idea."

"And who else is in her secret army?"

"I don't know, I met only with maester Qyburn."

"Guards! bring maester Qyburn here. ... Maester Qyburn, do you know this person? "

Qyburn: "Yes, of course I know him . Recently this fellow came to me on the street. Said that he knows that I'm a renouned healler, and asked me to help him. Unfortunately, it turned out that he has a case of long neglected syphilis, thus I can't help him in any way . He got really angry at me . "

"You can go, maester Qyburn. And you, fellow , should also go home, and stop pestering us with your crazy conspiracy theories. Though wait a minute... what is it that you were saying in the beginning of your speech? Who did you killed? "

". . . I didn't... didn't wanted It was her... she ordered me, she really did.. not my fault!"

" Guards! Seize him! Put him in dungeon! Send someone to that town, and ask whether that person is really dead. And if that's so, then report to their law enforcers, that we caught the culprit."

Traitor will be put into dungeon cell, and while he will be there, he will be visited by the Mountain, who will bash his head in the wall. And guards from the dungeon will say: "He was behaving like crazy. He was screaming, that there are bugs crowling inside his head. And then we heard a crash, and when we came to the door, he already killed himself."

"Whatever. He was crazy anyway. Secret network...  Spy Queen, right And at night she takes out her broom from the closet, and flies to Mars."

People that she hired, people that even without knowing identity of their secret master, commited crimes for money, won't report her to King Tommen, or any autorities, because in that case they will have to face punnishment for being her accomplices. They are criminals for hire, so their conscience won't suddenly wake up, just because it will be revealed that some of their future intended victims are royalty loyal to King Tommen. King? Queen? Whatever. Only money matter.

19 hours ago, darmody said:

Having Qyburn employ spies far and wide prepares the ground for the audience to accept the fact that they substantiated the rumor Cersei had heard about the caches of wildfire. It was not meant to imply that Cersei was soon going to be able to kill and gather into her service whomever she chooses under the noses of her enemies. 

And why did she asked to find out who and where her enemies are? Just Because? Or for the future? Though why to wait if she can kill them now?

[jcmontea]

31 minutes ago, Jabul said:

Yeah, it might not work. In better-written episodes, however, it would at least have been dealt with. Astapor, Yunkai, Meereen, Casterly Rock--at some point, someone on Dragonsone should have said, "Hey, why don't we try something like the techniques that have worked for us before?" 

Yes. A big weakness of the season is that they didn’t do a good job of either establishing the strategic context of the war and explaining the strategic options so that the audience could understand that this option was chosen because of X after considering Y. 

Although in truth, the show has always sucked at that. The way they handled the war of the five kings was super weak if you were interested in the military strategic context. 

[RhaegoTheUnborn]

Doesn't Varys still have his network of Little Birds? He found out where Tyrion was after he was kidnapped by Jorah Mormont, then there's the one that gave Jorah his first pardon letter in Vaes Dothrak when they were walking the Western Market. And Varys mentions his little birds "taking flight as we speak" when he was walking with Tyrion in Meereen, trying to find out who funded the Sons Of The Harpy. He just may not be under control of those in Kings Landing.

[Tagganaro]

49 minutes ago, RhaegoTheUnborn said:

Doesn't Varys still have his network of Little Birds? He found out where Tyrion was after he was kidnapped by Jorah Mormont, then there's the one that gave Jorah his first pardon letter in Vaes Dothrak when they were walking the Western Market. And Varys mentions his little birds "taking flight as we speak" when he was walking with Tyrion in Meereen, trying to find out who funded the Sons Of The Harpy. He just may not be under control of those in Kings Landing.

The Varys of Season 7 seems to be pretty much incompetent.  Maybe he lost all his spies when he left Westeros to meet Dany?  I do like the idea behind it I should say, although I have issues with how it's been conveyed.  You take Varys, a guy who excelled at the "Game of Thrones" machinations and notably hated magic, and put him into this new world with Dragons, White Walkers, resurrected Jon Snow, etc.  Of course he's out of his depth.  Same goes for Littlefinger.  

[jcmontea]

4 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

The Varys of Season 7 seems to be pretty much incompetent.  Maybe he lost all his spies when he left Westeros to meet Dany?  I do like the idea behind it I should say, although I have issues with how it's been conveyed.  You take Varys, a guy who excelled at the "Game of Thrones" machinations and notably hated magic, and put him into this new world with Dragons, White Walkers, resurrected Jon Snow, etc.  Of course he's out of his depth.  Same goes for Littlefinger.  

I think he pretty clearly lost his network once Qybrun takes over the little birds in season 6. 

at the very least, he lost his KL network because there is a ton of actionable intelligence from KL that he did not receive: 

- Euron visiting 

- The Reach lords visiting 

- The Iron Bank visiting 

[Megorova]

1 hour ago, RhaegoTheUnborn said:

Doesn't Varys still have his network of Little Birds? He found out where Tyrion was after he was kidnapped by Jorah Mormont, then there's the one that gave Jorah his first pardon letter in Vaes Dothrak when they were walking the Western Market. And Varys mentions his little birds "taking flight as we speak" when he was walking with Tyrion in Meereen, trying to find out who funded the Sons Of The Harpy. He just may not be under control of those in Kings Landing.

In Season 6 Episode 3, in Meereen: "TYRION: Tell me, can the little birds get a message to the good Masters of Astapor, the wise Masters of Yunkai, the benevolent enslavers of Volantis? VARYS: Of course. Man can be fickle, but birds I always trust." Next scene in King's Landing, parts in bold:

Spoiler

" QYBURN: Your eye looks much better, Arthur. How’s your mother’s jaw?

ARTHUR: Better.

QYBURN: And your father?

ARTHUR: No one’s seen him.

QYBURN: And no one will. That worked out rather nicely.

LITTLE BIRD: Will Lord Varys ever come back?

QYBURN: I don’t think so. Do you miss him?

LITTLE BIRD: He was nice.

ARTHUR: He called us his little birds. He gave us sweets.

QYBURN stands up and walks to a table.

QYBURN: It’s funny you should mention that. Guess what I happened to find today. Candied plums from Dorne.

He nods at the boxes. Eeach child picks one. They nibble at the plums.

QYBURN: Now remember, if any of your friends like sweets or need help, they can always come to me. All I need in return are whispers.

The door opens. GREGOR walks in, followed by JAIME and CERSEI.

QYBURN: No need to be afraid. This is Ser Gregor. He’s friends with all my friends.

GREGOR looks at the children. They stare at him, motionless.

QYBURN: Run along now.

The children run up the stairs.

CERSEI: Varys's little birds?

QYBURN: Your little birds now, your Grace.

JAIME is admiring GREGOR.

JAIME: What did you do to him exactly? I haven't been able to get a clear answer.

QYBURN: Oh, a number of things.

JAIME: Does he understand what we’re saying? I mean, to the extent that he ever understood complete sentences in the first place.

GREGOR turns his head to JAIME. JAIME recoils.

QYBURNS: He understands well enough.

JAIME: So tell him to march into the sept and crush the High Sparrow’s head like a melon.

CERSEI: The High Sparrow has hundreds of Faith Militant surrounding him. Ser Gregor will can’t face them all. And he won’t have to. He’ll only have to face one.

JAIME: Has the Faith leveled official charges yet?

CERSEI: Not yet.

JAIME: That is one trial by combat I look forward to watching.

CERSEI (to QYBURN): Don’t stop at the city. I want little birds in Dorne, in Highgarden, in the North. If someone is planning on making our losses their gains I want to hear it. If someone is laughing at the queen who walk naked through the streets covered in shit, I want to hear. I want to know who they are. I want to where they are.

QYBURN bows his head to CERSEI."

Cersei took over Westerosian part of Birds Network. While Verys was in Essos, he was getting intel from his local Birds. But when he came back to Westeros, his informants became useless. Because they are serving to Cersei. So they can spy after Varys, or feed him with false information.

I'm absolutely sure that in Season 8, Varys will die because of his Birds betrayal.

[jcmontea]

3 minutes ago, Megorova said:

In Season 6 Episode 3, in Meereen: "TYRION: Tell me, can the little birds get a message to the good Masters of Astapor, the wise Masters of Yunkai, the benevolent enslavers of Volantis? VARYS: Of course. Man can be fickle, but birds I always trust." Next scene in King's Landing, parts in bold:

  Hide contents

" QYBURN: Your eye looks much better, Arthur. How’s your mother’s jaw?

ARTHUR: Better.

QYBURN: And your father?

ARTHUR: No one’s seen him.

QYBURN: And no one will. That worked out rather nicely.

LITTLE BIRD: Will Lord Varys ever come back?

QYBURN: I don’t think so. Do you miss him?

LITTLE BIRD: He was nice.

ARTHUR: He called us his little birds. He gave us sweets.

QYBURN stands up and walks to a table.

QYBURN: It’s funny you should mention that. Guess what I happened to find today. Candied plums from Dorne.

He nods at the boxes. Eeach child picks one. They nibble at the plums.

QYBURN: Now remember, if any of your friends like sweets or need help, they can always come to me. All I need in return are whispers.

The door opens. GREGOR walks in, followed by JAIME and CERSEI.

QYBURN: No need to be afraid. This is Ser Gregor. He’s friends with all my friends.

GREGOR looks at the children. They stare at him, motionless.

QYBURN: Run along now.

The children run up the stairs.

CERSEI: Varys's little birds?

QYBURN: Your little birds now, your Grace.

JAIME is admiring GREGOR.

JAIME: What did you do to him exactly? I haven't been able to get a clear answer.

QYBURN: Oh, a number of things.

JAIME: Does he understand what we’re saying? I mean, to the extent that he ever understood complete sentences in the first place.

GREGOR turns his head to JAIME. JAIME recoils.

QYBURNS: He understands well enough.

JAIME: So tell him to march into the sept and crush the High Sparrow’s head like a melon.

CERSEI: The High Sparrow has hundreds of Faith Militant surrounding him. Ser Gregor will can’t face them all. And he won’t have to. He’ll only have to face one.

JAIME: Has the Faith leveled official charges yet?

CERSEI: Not yet.

JAIME: That is one trial by combat I look forward to watching.

CERSEI (to QYBURN): Don’t stop at the city. I want little birds in Dorne, in Highgarden, in the North. If someone is planning on making our losses their gains I want to hear it. If someone is laughing at the queen who walk naked through the streets covered in shit, I want to hear. I want to know who they are. I want to where they are.

QYBURN bows his head to CERSEI."

Cersei took over Westerosian part of Birds Network. While Verys was in Essos, he was getting intel from his local Birds. But when he came back to Westeros, his informants became useless. Because they are serving to Cersei. So they can spy after Varys, or feed him with false information.

I'm absolutely sure that in Season 8, Varys will die because of his Birds betrayal.

Possible they feed him false information in season 7

someone told him that the Lannister’s were expecting them at Casterly Rock 

[Megorova]

26 minutes ago, jcmontea said:

at the very least, he lost his KL network because there is a ton of actionable intelligence from KL that he did not receive: 

- Euron visiting 

- The Reach lords visiting 

- The Iron Bank visiting 

Add The North to that list.

- Varys didn't knew that Arya and Bran returned to Winterfell. His birds didn't informed him about this. He learned about this, only because he intercepted letter from Winterfell writen to Jon.

- He also didn't knew that Littlefinger also was at Winterfell.