(Spoilers) - The War makes no sense

[Hajk1984]

2 hours ago, jcmontea said:

Yes. A big weakness of the season is that they didn’t do a good job of either establishing the strategic context of the war and explaining the strategic options so that the audience could understand that this option was chosen because of X after considering Y. 

Although in truth, the show has always sucked at that. The way they handled the war of the five kings was super weak if you were interested in the military strategic context. 

I think they just knew that they needed to get the proper players in the proper places for the 8th season. The most complex issue in the way of that was the war. And D&D didn't want to do 20 more episodes (which could easily have helped with many of the war complications). So they had some iconic and badass scenes with respect to the war, and hoped the general audience will simply accept that everything made sense in terms of the exposition provided by in universe characters. Hence the central point of this thread, i.e. the war does not make sense is probably correct. There is too much that is left unspecified and we have no idea what the conclusion on these things is. We can assume and fill in the blanks whichever way we want but there is nothing certain because the show doesn't give us much here. For instance:

1) Who is running Dorne now? It's an entire kingdom. The paramount house, even its bastards are gone. Possibly we are supposed to assume that it has returned to Dany's control after he Loot-train battle. Yet Cersei does not mention losing it again and Dany is still angry over losing Dorne and Highgarden in 7x06. Has she regained it? Does Cersei have it? Presumably D&D knew the storyline wasn't popular and killed it off. Also we know that for one reason or another Dornish troops will not be going North. If Dany holds it it's surprising that she only calls for Unsullied and Dothraki to go North.

2) The lords of Westeros have apparently become irrelevant. If Dany holds half the country, then one would expect her to be able to send orders for them to call their banners and send much needed forces North. But other than Cersei in 7x07, this notion hardly ever appears to anyone. The Reach should alone be able to raise huge numbers. However, it seems like the Reach has only the Tarlys. What about others? What seems to be happening is that D&D decided that the majority of forces in the North will be non-Westerosi Unsullied and Dothraki. I don't know what will happen in the books. But the way things were set up here, this is what seems to have happened.

Cersei tells Jaime etc. to call all their banners. So do we assume that so far they have just been working with the main forces under just the Lannister lion banner and haven't even bothered to call their banners yet? With the given text, that remains a plausible reading. And that would make a major difference to the strategic calculus. But we have no information. What about places like the Reach, Riverlands etc. Where do the allegiances of the lords lie? With Cersei or Dany? If with Dany then it is surprising that no one will send forces North. If with Cersei then it is surprising that she hasn't called upon their forces. But we get no real answer other than Cersei calling upon many lords early on. Did she win their allegiance? Did many of them act like Tarly (who seems to be the mascot of the lords of Westeros since hardly any other are emphasized)? Has she been burning people all over the place for not bending the knee? Do the Unsullied have control over stuff in the Westerlands other than Casterly Rock? What about the Westerland banners etc.?

Who is actually administering most of Westeros? The lords are supposed to do this. But does Dany have these capable and efficient administrators who can do this under occupation? The Dothraki and Unsullied are incapable of this. But again this question is not dealt with in any sensible way.

3) Jon Snow's numbers drop from 20,000 to 10,000 with no clear indication of what happened. Did some lords abandon their new king? Did the Vale leave? Both seem implausible at this point and nothing is said about these. Again, just like the lords of Westeros, we have little explanation of numbers. Dany's Dothraki numbers are uncertain as well. Once upon a time we thought that these may be 100,000. Of course that should lead to all manner of logistic nightmares (especially on the island of Dragonstone). Are ships being sent with grain from the Reach? How big was the fleet that brought forces over to Dragonstone? Could it acually take 100,000 fighters and horses? And their families? Did the slaver ships added to Greyjoy ships actually have such huge numbers? And has Euron not managed to intercept and destroy this? We only get the inkling that Dany is bothered that Cersei has taken the food from the Reach so she won't be able to feed her armies. But how is she going to feed them now? What did she capture at the Loot train battle? Nothing is clear. But given her satisfaction I guess we should assume that she somehow managed to get the grain needed for her armies. However, in reality the problem is never mentioned again. It was just mentioned and the fact that Euron still seems to have naval supremacy and why that should screw stuff up is not mentioned. Nor is the fact that the Reach has been drained of a lot of food etc. and what is to happen in winter. 

Given all this, the only things we know were set up are that Dany has the largest army (the numbers will depend, I suppose on whatever D&D want) yet Cersei thinks that bringing in a 20,000 strong Golden Company can pose a challenge (which Jaime, who was at the Loot train battle, doesn't dispute other than saying that they are in Essos). For those who saw the loot train battle on the screen it shouldn't seem like they should make much difference against dragons. But if the plot requires it, I'm sure they'll be shown to have a major threat potential. Again, I think they are just putting certain pieces in place and the strength or lack thereof will be altered depending on how the plot requires it. This is the sort of thing that GRRM would worry about, but that has vanished from the show.

[Megorova]

3 hours ago, Hajk1984 said:

1) Who is running Dorne now? It's an entire kingdom. The paramount house, even its bastards are gone. Possibly we are supposed to assume that it has returned to Dany's control after he Loot-train battle. Yet Cersei does not mention losing it again and Dany is still angry over losing Dorne and Highgarden in 7x06. Has she regained it? Does Cersei have it? Presumably D&D knew the storyline wasn't popular and killed it off. Also we know that for one reason or another Dornish troops will not be going North. If Dany holds it it's surprising that she only calls for Unsullied and Dothraki to go North.

Ruler of Dorne and his heir, both were killed by Sands. Lots of people weren't satisfied with Prince's ruling, but they still didn't rebell against him. So rebellion was mostly supported by Sand Snakes. Then chief Snakes and Mom were also offed. So even if there are still living Snakes left in Dorne, it's likely that they would rather prefear to stay in Dorne, and rule it, than to go to war against Cersei. But even if they will want to go and fight, there's a major obstacle on their way. 

Dorne is cut off from the rest of continent by mountains. There's only two passes thru them - Boneway and Princess Pass. In books Prince Doran Martell has sent his troops to stay encamped there, and wait his order to attack enemies of House Martell. Sand Mom and Sand girls killed Doran and Tristan. So if their people (remaining in Dorne Sand girls) will try to go thru those passes, and lead their troops north, they will be intercepted and killed by troops royal to Martells.

And the seaway is controlled by Euron's Iron Fleet. So Dorne is out of the picture. Probably for ever.

3 hours ago, Hajk1984 said:

2) The lords of Westeros have apparently become irrelevant. If Dany holds half the country, then one would expect her to be able to send orders for them to call their banners and send much needed forces North.

Dorne (1) is out of the picture, because of political or geografical reasons.

Forces of Stormlands (2) are already drained by Ranly and Stannis.

The North (3) and The Vale (4) support Jon Snow.

The Reach (5) and Riverlands (6) were split by betrayal. Riverlands by conflict between Tullys and Freys. The Reach by conflict between Tyrells and Tarlys. Furthermore Lannisters control Riverlands thru Edmure Tully, and by threatening his family. So maybe when Jaime marched to The Reach, he also left part of Lannister forces to control Tarly's castle Horn Hill, and Randyll's family present there. To ensure their further loyalty to Lannisters.

And King's Landing and Westerlands (7) belong to Cersei.

Even before epic fail of Sands (1) and Olenna (5), Kingdoms (2) and (6) were out of the picture. So given all of that, Jon Snow is the only possible ally for Dany.

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However, it seems like the Reach has only the Tarlys. What about others?

Other bannermen of Reach were also in that assembly in KL, together with Tarlys. Non of them helped Olenna, or even informed her about what's comming. So probably they decided to stay neutral, and let Tarlys to deal with Tyrells.

3 hours ago, Hajk1984 said:

Where do the allegiances of the lords lie? With Cersei or Dany?

Why would other people aside from Jon, support Dany? He's the only one out of all Westerosian lords, that approached her. (Yara and Theon are not lords. And Olenna and Sands were contacted by Dany first, thru Varys, so they also didn't went to Dany on their own.)

3 hours ago, Hajk1984 said:

What about the Westerland banners etc.?

They all probably either fortified themselves in their castles, or went to KL together with Jaime.

3 hours ago, Hajk1984 said:

Who is actually administering most of Westeros? The lords are supposed to do this. But does Dany have these capable and efficient administrators who can do this under occupation? The Dothraki and Unsullied are incapable of this. But again this question is not dealt with in any sensible way.

She has no lords. Aside from foreign barbarians, she has only Tyrion and Varys. Only two of them know at least something about politics, economy, and other aspects of 'kingdom management'. Though only two of them are not enough to establish a high-grade court, or government.

3 hours ago, Hajk1984 said:

Jon Snow's numbers drop from 20,000 to 10,000 with no clear indication of what happened.

Weren't there's originally only 10,000? Though maybe previously he also counted wildlings, but now he has sent them to restore all castles on The Wall.

3 hours ago, Hajk1984 said:

Dany's Dothraki numbers are uncertain as well. Once upon a time we thought that these may be 100,000. Of course that should lead to all manner of logistic nightmares (especially on the island of Dragonstone).

Aren't they all stationed at White Harbor?

3 hours ago, Hajk1984 said:

How big was the fleet that brought forces over to Dragonstone? Could it acually take 100,000 fighters and horses? And their families? Did the slaver ships added to Greyjoy ships actually have such huge numbers?

Probably Dany confiscated all ships from ex-Slavers Bay, not only fleets of 3 major Slave Cities of Good Masters.

Each Good Master had at least 100+ ships, so with added fleet brought by Yara, there was probably 400 or so ships. That's 270 passengers per ship, 100,000 Dothraki + 8,000 Unsullied. Master's ships are bigger than ships from Euron's current fleet, in which ships are similar in size to dromons. According to Wikipedia heavy dromons had 230 rowers and 70 marines, 300 crewman in total. Master's ships are bigger, and deeper, so they can carry 300 passengers + horses + other cargo.

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And has Euron not managed to intercept and destroy this?

He came to Blackwater Bay later than Dany's fleet. Also her fleet was escorted by 3 dragons. Thus not a good idea to intercept them.

3 hours ago, Hajk1984 said:

We only get the inkling that Dany is bothered that Cersei has taken the food from the Reach so she won't be able to feed her armies. But how is she going to feed them now?

In White Harbor. It's the major port of trade between Westeros and Essos, there's enough food for her army. The problem then with Unsullied was because they were stranded in CR, without food and fleet. So they had to march on foot thru entire Reach, but Lannisters took away all food on that way. Probably after defeating Jaime, Dany sent Dothraki with supplies to meet Unsullied and escort them to KL. Though without added support from Reach, it became impossible for Dany's troops to take KL under long siege.

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What did she capture at the Loot train battle?

Nothing. She didn't went there to take anything back. She went to revenge Olenna's death, and to show them that they shouldn't fuck with Mother of Dragons.

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Given all this, the only things we know were set up are that Dany has the largest army (the numbers will depend, I suppose on whatever D&D want) yet Cersei thinks that bringing in a 20,000 strong Golden Company can pose a challenge

Many of Dany's people will be eliminated by Undead Army. Also those that will survive, will be drained by those battles, and by winter. So Cersei is probably planning to use fresh and rested Golden Company, in the same manner as Ramsay Bolton attacked Stannis' troops near Winterfell.

[Hajk1984]

36 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Ruler of Dorne and his heir, both were killed by Sands. Lots of people weren't satisfyed with Prince's ruling, but they still didn't rebell against him. So rebellion was mostly supported by Sand Snakes. Then chief Snakes and Mom were also offed. So even if there are still living Snakes left in Dorne, it's likely that they would rather prefear to stay in Dorne, and rule it, than to go to war against Cersei. But even if they will want to go and fight, there's a major obstacle on their way. 

Dorne is cut off from the rest of continent by mountains. There's only two passes thru them - Boneway and Princess Pass. In books Prince Doran Martell has sent his troops to stay encamped there, and wait his order to attack enemies of House Martell. Sand Mom and Sand girls killed Doran and Tristan. So if their people (remaining in Dorne Sand girls) will try to go thru those passes, and lead their troops north, they will be intercepted and killed by troops royal to Martells.

And the seaway is controlled by Euron's Iron Fleet. So Dorne is out of the picture. Probably for ever.

Dorne (1) is out of the picture, because of political or geografical reasons.

Forces of Stormlands (2) are already drained by Ranly and Stannis.

The North (3) and The Vale (4) support Jon Snow.

The Reach (5) and Riverlands (6) were split by betrayal. Riverlands by conflict between Tullys and Freys. The Reach by conflict between Tyrells and Tarlys. Furthermore Lannisters control Riverlands thru Edmure Tully, and by threatening his family. So maybe when Jaime marched to The Reach, he also left part of Lannister forces to control Tarly's castle Horn Hill, and Randyll's family present there. To ensure their further loyalty to Lannisters.

And King's Landing and Westerlands (7) belong to Cersei.

Even before epic fail of Sands (1) and Olenna (5), Kingdoms (2) and (6) were out of the picture. So given all of that, Jon Snow is the only possible ally for Dany.

For Dorne, while that is interesting speculation, we have no idea if this or anything like this is happening based on what we saw. It simply wasn't shown. I may as well assume that since both the Snakes and Martells are gone, whichever house is the second most powerful in Dorne will now rise to ascendency. Alternatively there could be a power struggle going on right now. Or the second most powerful house may have reached an agreement with the Lannisters and was now reconciled to the Cersei and the Iron Throne. The plot veered so far off from the books with the elimination of Arianne and others that I have no idea what the show is doing here. I certainly didn't see Sand Mom in the books as the sort of character who could lead that sort of coup against Doran (or that Dorne would tolerate it). I am currently treating Dorne in the show separately from the books because of how many changes they've made. 

The Stormlands were drained as such years ago. The lords should now  be able to raise more, one imagines (the North certainly seems able to do that, as do the Lannisters. For the Reach, it isn't clear if Dany has managed to regain it (she killed the Tarlys, yet the Maesters at the Citadel don't seem to speak as if Dany is queen in Oldtown, and Dany is still talking about losing Hihggarden 2 episodes later)). It certainly doesn't explain why Dany keeps talking about Cersei retaking "half the country" and yet cannot call on any bannermen from the rest of the country but only the forces she brought from Essos. Unless Dany does not actually hold anything other than Dragonstone, but has created enough chaos that Cersei doesn't hold half the country either. But that doesn't seem to be what Dany is saying either. It seems like she's claiming to hold half the country. Bu there are counter-indications that suggest that she doesn't hold much. And we have to fill in the blanks with speculations, but many different speculations (which all result in very different power dynamics) seem imaginable. I still think D&D simply failed to make these things consistent because they were just trying to arrange the pieces for season 8.

[jcmontea]

4 minutes ago, Hajk1984 said:

For Dorne, while that is interesting speculation, we have no idea if this or anything like this is happening based on what we saw. It simply wasn't shown. I may as well assume that since both the Snakes and Martells are gone, whichever house is the second most powerful in Dorne will now rise to ascendency. Alternatively there could be a power struggle going on right now. Or the second most powerful house may have reached an agreement with the Lannisters and was now reconciled to the Cersei and the Iron Throne. The plot veered so far off from the books with the elimination of Arianne and others that I have no idea what the show is doing here. I certainly didn't see Sand Mom in the books as the sort of character who could lead that sort of coup against Doran (or that Dorne would tolerate it). I am currently treating Dorne in the show separately from the books because of how many changes they've made. 

The Stormlands were drained as such years ago. The lords should now  be able to raise more, one imagines (the North certainly seems able to do that, as do the Lannisters. For the Reach, it isn't clear if Dany has managed to regain it (she killed the Tarlys, yet the Maesters at the Citadel don't seem to speak as if Dany is queen in Oldtown, and Dany is still talking about losing Hihggarden 2 episodes later)). It certainly doesn't explain why Dany keeps talking about Cersei retaking "half the country" and yet cannot call on any bannermen from the rest of the country but only the forces she brought from Essos. Unless Dany does not actually hold anything other than Dragonstone, but has created enough chaos that Cersei doesn't hold half the country either. But that doesn't seem to be what Dany is saying either. It seems like she's claiming to hold half the country. Bu there are counter-indications that suggest that she doesn't hold much. And we have to fill in the blanks with speculations, but many different speculations (which all result in very different power dynamics) seem imaginable. I still think D&D simply failed to make these things consistent because they were just trying to arrange the pieces for season 8.

i would think her holding half the country could be as simple as she has military control of it but she has not effectively set up a government there. so the local lords are not paying taxes to her, they have not necessarily pledged their loyalty to her, etc. 

[Hajk1984]

1 minute ago, jcmontea said:

i would think her holding half the country could be as simple as she has military control of it but she has not effectively set up a government there. so the local lords are not paying taxes to her, they have not necessarily pledged their loyalty to her, etc. 

Then how is she holding it? The lords are normally able to call on bannermen. They have castles and holdfasts. They actually hold the lands on which people are living, where the agriculture or mining is taking place etc. In what sense is she holding it? Just some sort of military occupation with her forces? Are the Dothraki even capable of maintaining something like that (maybe the Unsullied have to discipline to do so). Without setting up an administrative system and the allegiance of the lords it is quite difficult to see what such holding even means. As we know, they can shift loyalty in either direction. They have earlier pledged loyalty to the Iron Throne. By the rules here, unless you're someone like Walder Frey, that type of thing is still in operation unless you shift your loyalties. Otherwise you should pledge your bannermen if the Crown calls on you. Cersei does say "call the banners" which makes me wonder if they have currently mainly been working with just the Cqasterly Rock forces, although even that seems strange.

[Jabul]

6 hours ago, Count Balerion said:

Jabul said: Would you be interested in a new thread, one devoted to discussing more plausible scenarios?

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

 

(Pardon messy quoting.)

That does sound interesting; I don't know how often I'd post, but it would at least be fun to read and I may have random thoughts. (The other ever-present danger being that it turns into parody.)

 

I started a thread entitled "A More Plausible War." I quoted one of your ideas in the original post. Anyone interested in exploring possible alternate Season 7s can go to:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/148777-a-more-plausible-war/

We'll see how things work out. 

[jcmontea]

18 minutes ago, Hajk1984 said:

Then how is she holding it? The lords are normally able to call on bannermen. They have castles and holdfasts. They actually hold the lands on which people are living, where the agriculture or mining is taking place etc. In what sense is she holding it? Just some sort of military occupation with her forces? Are the Dothraki even capable of maintaining something like that (maybe the Unsullied have to discipline to do so). Without setting up an administrative system and the allegiance of the lords it is quite difficult to see what such holding even means. As we know, they can shift loyalty in either direction. They have earlier pledged loyalty to the Iron Throne. By the rules here, unless you're someone like Walder Frey, that type of thing is still in operation unless you shift your loyalties. Otherwise you should pledge your bannermen if the Crown calls on you. Cersei does say "call the banners" which makes me wonder if they have currently mainly been working with just the Cqasterly Rock forces, although even that seems strange.

I would assume the answer is no one wants to go out and meet the Dothraki in the open field

[Hajk1984]

48 minutes ago, jcmontea said:

I would assume the answer is no one wants to go out and meet the Dothraki in the open field

Perhaps, but there are, as I said, castles, holdfasts and what not (as the Blackfish held Riverrun for ages). So if the lords are loyal to Cersei (or who are they loyal to), I suppose the Dothraki can hold an area where they are in large numbers. Its doubtful this could be half the country. It is not clear if that could be called "holding the country. " Open field battle is one type of warfare and Dany has an advantage  in it due to her dragons and Dothraki. But if the lords still hold their power and do not bend the knee, then at best it is a tense occupation which can erupt into a worse than Harpy insurgency at any point, and not just over a city but over half a continent. Anyhow, this exhibits just how many different issues are not considered here, that I don't think would have been the case if they had GRRMs material rather than just trying to get to the ending they wanted.

[jcmontea]

19 minutes ago, Hajk1984 said:

Perhaps, but there are, as I said, castles, holdfasts and what not (as the Blackfish held Riverrun for ages). So if the lords are loyal to Cersei (or who are they loyal to), I suppose the Dothraki can hold an area where they are in large numbers. Its doubtful this could be half the country. It is not clear if that could be called "holding the country. " Open field battle is one type of warfare and Dany has an advantage  in it due to her dragons and Dothraki. But if the lords still hold their power and do not bend the knee, then at best it is a tense occupation which can erupt into a worse than Harpy insurgency at any point, and not just over a city but over half a continent. Anyhow, this exhibits just how many different issues are not considered here, that I don't think would have been the case if they had GRRMs material rather than just trying to get to the ending they wanted.

I agree. Its covered at a very superficial level and there are a whole series of questions that are not answered. 

But not sure GRRMs books would have helped. I felt Season 2 sucked at conveying what was going on with the War of the Five Kings.

Just watching the TV show its not at all clear what is happening other than:

there is some fighting going on

stannis is heading to attack KL

he is defeated 

The show just seems to suck at this aspect of things or is simy not interested in it. 

[darmody]

10 hours ago, jcmontea said:

Yes. A big weakness of the season is that they didn’t do a good job of either establishing the strategic context of the war and explaining the strategic options so that the audience could understand that this option was chosen because of X after considering Y. 

Although in truth, the show has always sucked at that. The way they handled the war of the five kings was super weak if you were interested in the military strategic context. 

The Lannister-Stark War and the War of the Five Kings-proper were at least explained in BIg Picture terms. They didn't bother much with nuts and bolts strategy or logistics, and I don't think I was able to follow the wars from episode to episode back then. Last season improved on that part, at least, at the expense of it making sense. The first three seasons showed strategy more in terms of character: Robb asserting himself, Theon proving his Ironbornness, Tywin holding his legacy together, Tyrion getting his first taste of the game, Robb slowly making bad decisions because love and whatnot, and so on. That tradition continues. This war is more about Dany's morals and Cersei's evulz than strategy. 

What we saw of strategy below the Big Picture level in both eras of the show was largely character-motivated, too. It came in two main forms. First, there's luring the enemy into a trap. Robb does this to the Lannisters by dangling a smaller force in front of Tywin while he shifted the bulk of his men onto the unexpectant Jaime. Likewise, the crown's navy was no match for Stannis, so Tyrion didn't bother using it and instead laid a wildfire trap for Stannis to sail into.

In both cases we were allowed in on the planning in sufficient detail for us to appreciate them when they were shown. (We didn't actually see Robb's victory, but we saw the aftermath.) They were used to develop both the characters who planned them (Robb, Tyrion), and the ones who suffered defeat (Tywin/Jaime, Stannis). 

The other form was attacking something the enemy left unprotected in the rear. Theon attacked Winterfell while Robb was down South to prove to his father he's not a Stark. Robb planned to attack Casterly Rock while Tywin and the Mountain were distracted because to do so he needed to call on the Freys, and the Tragedy of Robb Stark called for him to die at the Twins. 

Similarly, we saw last season Tyrion planning Dany's war to both spare and make his family suffer, representing his mixed feelings about them. Euron joined Cersei and smashed the heck out of Dany's navy, teleporting back and forth while doing so, because he's a Badass Sexy Rockstar Pirate. That's his character. The Tarlies switched allegiances and gave the Lannisters the power to sack Highgarden because Randal Tarly hates foreigners. That's his character. 

But seriously, we got about as much non-Big Picture strategic detail last season as in Seasons 1-4. Difference was if you scratch the surface and look into the War of the Five Kings, it makes sense. The Dany-Cersei War doesn't. It was smoke and mirrors meant to look good, wow us while we watched, and get us to the end of the season where everyone could be together in a dragon pit to scowl and poke fun of eachother. 

 

 

 

Bigger difference, and what makes the earlier seasons so much better, is that back then they managed to convey Big Picture Strategy. We knew what each side wanted, what the major obstacles were to them achieving it, and what each change in fortune meant to everyone affected. Even if we didn't know where their armies were, exactly, episode to episode. (Unless you read the books or paid close attention, which I didn't.)

For instance, the idea that Robb wanted to establish his independence as King of the North and get his sisters back. He couldn't march on King's Landing because the Lannister army was in the way, and he wasn't out to depose Joffrey, anyway. He would prefer Stannis on the throne and might help him get there, but Stannis wouldn't tolerate an independent North. So you don't have to ask "Why isn't Robb attacking Joffrey directly?" That's not his goal. (You should ask why Arya isn't sending the assassin to get Joffrey or Cersei as well as Tywin, because her goal is to kill everyone. But we'll never know.)

You knew when the Ironborn stabbed Robb in the back he both lost trust from his allies and had to spare men to go North and root them out. He was then fighting on two fronts. You know Stannis kicking Renly out of the war strengthened both himself and the Lannisters and hurt the Starks. Because Renly would've almost certainly taken King's Landing without black magical interference, and then the Tyrells were open to allying with the crown. It also took away the brewing Renly-Robb alliance, which would've been great for the Family Doom, I mean Stark.

The Lannisters kept getting lucky, in that their enemies wouldn't cooperate. That made their two-front war more plausible. But they didn't get lucky like Cersei getting lucky last season. Dany apparently lost the Reach and Dorne because...reasons. Entire geographically important kingdoms weren't mentioned or disappeared from action without explanation. We don't know who rules what outside the North/Vale and Iron Islands, except Dany has Dragonstone and Cersei has King's Landing. (Though Cersei will have everything in the South when Dany goes North, I guess.)

Another f'rinstance is the idea that Stannis required an entire season to get to King's Landing because he had to amass a navy and retrieve the bannermen Renly stole from him. Meanwhile, Tyrion has to stay put in King's Landing and prepare for a siege, because he doesn't have enough men to do anything else. The real Lannister forces are fighting Robb and committing war crimes in the Riverlands. Unlike nowadays, castles actually had defensive value back then. Armies didn't march away from their protection willy-nilly, nor did they fall in record Highgarden-time. 

Last season, the Big Picture was Cersei is fighting Dany. Cersei has one ally, Dany has three. They do some stuff, and things happen. Mostly Dany loses, then wants to fight a different war.

Dany didn't attack, besiege, or at least cut off King's Landing because...

Cersei's armies and Euron's navy are able to teleport across continents because...

Reasons. 

[Beardy the Wildling]

9 hours ago, Jabul said:

I started a thread entitled "A More Plausible War." I quoted one of your ideas in the original post. Anyone interested in exploring possible alternate Season 7s can go to:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/148777-a-more-plausible-war/

We'll see how things work out. 

Damn, the mods ate your topic

[MinscS2]

2 hours ago, Beardy the Wildling said:

Damn, the mods ate your topic

Probably just awaiting approval still. 

[Jabul]

1 hour ago, MinscS2 said:

Probably just awaiting approval still. 

Yeah, that appears to be the case. I can click on the URL and get to the original post. However, when I go to the listing, I see my topic on a pink background, and there is one of those circles with an exclamation point in it. 

I should have waited longer before posting the URL on this thread. Sorry about that. 

[jcmontea]

8 hours ago, darmody said:

 

Last season, the Big Picture was Cersei is fighting Dany. Cersei has one ally, Dany has three. They do some stuff, and things happen. Mostly Dany loses, then wants to fight a different war.

Dany didn't attack, besiege, or at least cut off King's Landing because...

Cersei's armies and Euron's navy are able to teleport across continents because...

Reasons. 

I actually don’t believe this anymore. I think big picture the war makes sense. The reason i think that is because of the article i shared earlier this week where one of the more prestigious geopolitical analysis firms as an april fools special published a piece on the geopolitics of westeros. In it they pretty much predicted how the war was going to go just from analyzing the map. They got enough wrong as well where its clear they had not read the spoilers. But big picture they nailed it. If its possible to predict the course of the war from the underlying geopolitics, then there is clearly some underlying structure that makes sense. 

Of course that does not mean teleporting euron, stupid tyrion and varys, the armistace etc made sense. 

[Hajk1984]

12 hours ago, jcmontea said:

I agree. Its covered at a very superficial level and there are a whole series of questions that are not answered. 

But not sure GRRMs books would have helped. I felt Season 2 sucked at conveying what was going on with the War of the Five Kings.

Just watching the TV show its not at all clear what is happening other than:

there is some fighting going on

stannis is heading to attack KL

he is defeated 

The show just seems to suck at this aspect of things or is simy not interested in it. 

 

However, the show was closer to the books back then so many questions were answerable. Also we didn't have major problems come up and vanish. It was also possible to make more reasonable speculations about what was happening. And it didn't see to make much difference to the plot.

For example, first of all the paramount houses were all in place so one could understand what particular kingdoms were doing from their behavior. We knew what the Reach was doing because of the Tyrells. We knew what the Vale was doing (nothing). We knew that Dorne had to be kept quiet by giving them a princess. Even the relative strengths of their armies were not hard to make out (the only place they dropped the ball was on the Riverlands as I recall).

Now we don't know. The paramount houses of Dorne and the Reach have been annihilated. When this happened (seemingly) in the North, a major betraying house became the paramount house controlling the North with the support of the Iron Throne and it was possible to understand what was happening there. Now we have no idea what happens in the chaos created by the elimination of the established structures of authority in these kingdoms. For the Riverlands, we have no real idea how much influence the Tully name still carries there. They have lost almost everything apart from Riverrun, which also fell. On top of this, the traitorous house that collaborated with the Lannisters (i.e. House Frey) was eliminated by Arya. Depending on how things are going, the Stormlands are also up in air. In the Westerlands we don't even know if Dany holds any more than the fortress of Casterly Rock. Wherever the loyalties, numbers, armies, and resources of these places fall makes major differences to understanding how this war is going. Imagine how confusing things could have been if we had no idea what several kingdoms were doing in the Wot5K, whether one side controlled them, the other controlled them, they were under occupation and stuck in their castles/holdfasts, engaged in some sort of civil war, gathering under a new major house but desiring independence, and so on. 

Then consider what difference the calculus of relative strengths makes. If Dany has 100,000 Dothraki that makes major difference compared to if she has 30,000 or so with her. In fact it also changes the perception of the "great war" to come. For example if Dany actually has those numbers and 2 dragons then it means that by moving the Dothraki to the North, they have parity or even greater force than the Army of the Dead (assuming that Dany's estimate of a 100,000 or so is correct and all there is). But that doesn't make the Army of the Dead seem so terrifying as everyone is saying. It can even make Cersei's actions seem rational (also Jaime's silly in thinking there was any chance of facing the Dothraki, and not because of their fighting skills, but due to numbers alone). This would seem to make this supposedly apocalyptic threat that has been building since 1x01 and has inspired writings, religions and prophecies even in another continent rather manageable. But I'm not sure if that was the message that they even intended to give.

 

[jcmontea]

2 minutes ago, Hajk1984 said:

However, the show was closer to the books back then so many questions were answerable. Also we didn't have major problems come up and vanish. It was also possible to make more reasonable speculations about what was happening. And it didn't see to make much difference to the plot.

For example, first of all the paramount houses were all in place so one could understand what particular kingdoms were doing from their behavior. We knew what the Reach was doing because of the Tyrells. We knew what the Vale was doing (nothing). We knew that Dorne had to be kept quiet by giving them a princess. Even the relative strengths of their armies were not hard to make out (the only place they dropped the ball was on the Riverlands as I recall).

Now we don't know. The paramount houses of Dorne and the Reach have been annihilated. When this happened (seemingly) in the North, a major betraying house became the paramount house controlling the North with the support of the Iron Throne and it was possible to understand what was happening there. Now we have no idea what happens in the chaos created by the elimination of the established structures of authority in these kingdoms. For the Riverlands, we have no real idea how much influence the Tully name still carries there. They have lost almost everything apart from Riverrun, which also fell. On top of this, the traitorous house that collaborated with the Lannisters (i.e. House Frey) was eliminated by Arya. Depending on how things are going, the Stormlands are also up in air. In the Westerlands we don't even know if Dany holds any more than the fortress of Casterly Rock. Wherever the loyalties, numbers, armies, and resources of these places fall makes major differences to understanding how this war is going. Imagine how confusing things could have been if we had no idea what several kingdoms were doing in the Wot5K, whether one side controlled them, the other controlled them, they were under occupation and stuck in their castles/holdfasts, engaged in some sort of civil war, gathering under a new major house but desiring independence, and so on. 

I guess. It wasn’t clear to me what was going on in the show regarding the riverlands until season 3. Was totally dependent on the books to have any idea that the riverlands where even a part of Robbs army and Kingdom. 

Its never clear in the show what happens to the stormlands when stannis falls. 

I think the real reason this stuff made more sense back then was because we had a book not because the tv show was doing a great job conveying the information. 

The show just focuses on conveying the minimum amount of information for the general audience. Unfort but true. Most of the general audicience is prob not asking but wait what about the lords of dorne. 

2 minutes ago, Hajk1984 said:

Then consider what difference the calculus of relative strengths makes. If Dany has 100,000 Dothraki that makes major difference compared to if she has 30,000 or so with her. In fact it also changes the perception of the "great war" to come. For example if Dany actually has those numbers and 2 dragons then it means that by moving the Dothraki to the North, they have parity or even greater force than the Army of the Dead (assuming that Dany's estimate of a 100,000 or so is correct and all there is). But that doesn't make the Army of the Dead seem so terrifying as everyone is saying. It can even make Cersei's actions seem rational (also Jaime's silly in thinking there was any chance of facing the Dothraki, and not because of their fighting skills, but due to numbers alone). This would seem to make this supposedly apocalyptic threat that has been building since 1x01 and has inspired writings, religions and prophecies even in another continent rather manageable. But I'm not sure if that was the message that they even intended to give.

 

Have they said she has less than 100k Dothraki? I just always had 100k in my head but now not sure if its from the history and lore from season 6 or whether that was clear in the show. Even if its 100k v 100k i still think the AOTD is huge because a.) their army gets stronger with death so as the living army dwindles theirs goes up and b.) if you don’t kill the NK and every white walker than just one of them can break off and easily raise up another army and the living can’t 

[SirArthur]

18 minutes ago, jcmontea said:

I actually don’t believe this anymore. I think big picture the war makes sense. The reason i think that is because of the article i shared earlier this week where one of the more prestigious geopolitical analysis firms as an april fools special published a piece on the geopolitics of westeros. In it they pretty much predicted how the war was going to go just from analyzing the map. They got enough wrong as well where its clear they had not read the spoilers. But big picture they nailed it. If its possible to predict the course of the war from the underlying geopolitics, then there is clearly some underlying structure that makes sense. 

Even they admit that the only reason for not attacking KL is Dany. It is simply a mistake but compared to Hannibal who did not besiege Rome Dany and team is also terrible bad at any military or diplomatic or spy game. Hannibal always had number and ressource problems, problems that were never even mentioned in the show. 

What we see is a complete meltdown of what would have happened if Hannibal were incompetent. It's not the end result, it's about the way. Everybody would be fine with Dany if she tried. Stannis tried. Stannis also had to turn North. That there is the difference. And Stannis had a plan, he wanted to recruit the Wildlings. 

[Jabul]

14 hours ago, Hajk1984 said:

For Dorne, while that is interesting speculation, we have no idea if this or anything like this is happening based on what we saw. It simply wasn't shown. I may as well assume that since both the Snakes and Martells are gone, whichever house is the second most powerful in Dorne will now rise to ascendency. Alternatively there could be a power struggle going on right now. Or the second most powerful house may have reached an agreement with the Lannisters and was now reconciled to the Cersei and the Iron Throne. The plot veered so far off from the books with the elimination of Arianne and others that I have no idea what the show is doing here...

... the Maesters at the Citadel don't seem to speak as if Dany is queen in Oldtown, ...

And we have to fill in the blanks with speculations, but many different speculations (which all result in very different power dynamics) seem imaginable. I still think D&D simply failed to make these things consistent because they were just trying to arrange the pieces for season 8.

Yes, one can speculate about Dorne. There isn't enough info to do anything but speculate. The same can be said about the Stormlands, the Vale, the Reach, the Riverlands, and the Westerlands. I believe that the bolded part above gives us a highly plausible explanation. 

I suppose we could say that Jon is now Warden of the North. I don't think one can make a credible claim that there are any other acting wardens. To whom do the various lords, high and lesser, owe fealty? Probably most of these men haven't actually sworn an oath to either Cersei or Daenerys. Even those who have sworn such an oath could make a reasonable case that they are not strongly bound by it. For the good of their land and their people, they could switch sides. Knights and lords have done this before.

The Maesters of the Citadel are portrayed as dunderheads. It's not fair to call this a plot hole. Maybe they are dunderheads. It is questionable that the term "hold" has any meaning, at least if you want to claim that any central authority is doing something that might be called "ruling." In all, it appears that the realm has pretty much come apart. 

9 hours ago, darmody said:

The Lannister-Stark War and the War of the Five Kings-proper were at least explained in BIg Picture terms. They didn't bother much with nuts and bolts strategy or logistics, and I don't think I was able to follow the wars from episode to episode back then. Last season improved on that part, at least, at the expense of it making sense. ...

 we got about as much non-Big Picture strategic detail last season as in Seasons 1-4. Difference was if you scratch the surface and look into the War of the Five Kings, it makes sense. The Dany-Cersei War doesn't. It was smoke and mirrors meant to look good, wow us while we watched, and get us to the end of the season where everyone could be together in a dragon pit to scowl and poke fun of eachother. 

Bigger difference, and what makes the earlier seasons so much better, is that back then they managed to convey Big Picture Strategy. We knew what each side wanted, what the major obstacles were to them achieving it, and what each change in fortune meant to everyone affected. Even if we didn't know where their armies were, exactly, episode to episode. (Unless you read the books or paid close attention, which I didn't.)

...

Last season, the Big Picture was Cersei is fighting Dany. Cersei has one ally, Dany has three. They do some stuff, and things happen. Mostly Dany loses, then wants to fight a different war.

Dany didn't attack, besiege, or at least cut off King's Landing because...

Cersei's armies and Euron's navy are able to teleport across continents because...

Reasons. 

I have been, and continue to be, quite critical of Season 7 for its lack of consistency, even for its lack of sense. Looking at the questions raised about various kingdoms in many of the recent posts on this thread, however, one can say this:

Write your own story. How could anyone show definitively that you are wrong? Even at the end of Season 8,  a high percentage of the issues we are now talking about probably won't be resolved and well explained. One thing that any credible story should contain though is a good deal of suffering, disorder, even chaos. The current situation in the 7K would give lots of opportunities to outlaws, broken men, various thugs, etc. Remember the mountain tribes? They are now very well armed; they would have free rein over a wide area. 

At least a few places are likely to get the Saltpans treatment. If you don't remember that incident from the books, then just think of it as something worse than the Mountain's treatment of the Riverlands. 

[jcmontea]

4 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

Even they admit that the only reason for not attacking KL is Dany. It is simply a mistake but compared to Hannibal who did not besiege Rome Dany and team is also terrible bad at any military or diplomatic or spy game. Hannibal always had number and ressource problems, problems that were never even mentioned in the show. 

What we see is a complete meltdown of what would have happened if Hannibal were incompetent. It's not the end result, it's about the way. Everybody would be fine with Dany if she tried. Stannis tried. Stannis also had to turn North. That there is the difference. And Stannis had a plan, he wanted to recruit the Wildlings. 

What are you disagreeing with? 

Her not attacking KL? 

She was trying to set up a siege of KL all season it just kept getting interupted. 

The Dorne and Tyrell armies got taken out. 

Then the White Walkers intervened or better said Bran and his raven intervened. 

[jcmontea]

9 minutes ago, Jabul said:

Yes, one can speculate about Dorne. There isn't enough info to do anything but speculate. The same can be said about the Stormlands, the Vale, the Reach, the Riverlands, and the Westerlands. I believe that the bolded part above gives us a highly plausible explanation. 

I suppose we could say that Jon is now Warden of the North. I don't think one can make a credible claim that there are any other acting wardens. To whom do the various lords, high and lesser, owe fealty? Probably most of these men haven't actually sworn an oath to either Cersei or Daenerys. Even those who have sworn such an oath could make a reasonable case that they are not strongly bound by it. For the good of their land and their people, they could switch sides. Knights and lords have done this before.

The Maesters of the Citadel are portrayed as dunderheads. It's not fair to call this a plot hole. Maybe they are dunderheads. It is questionable that the term "hold" has any meaning, at least if you want to claim that any central authority is doing something that might be called "ruling." In all, it appears that the realm has pretty much come apart. 

This. After seven years of war this is a good point. The place has really come apart. 

9 minutes ago, Jabul said:

I have been, and continue to be, quite critical of Season 7 for its lack of consistency, even for its lack of sense. Looking at the questions raised about various kingdoms in many of the recent posts on this thread, however, one can say this:

Write your own story. How could anyone show definitively that you are wrong? Even at the end of Season 8,  a high percentage of the issues we are now talking about probably won't be resolved and well explained. One thing that any credible story should contain though, is a good deal of suffering, disorder, even chaos. The current situation in the 7K would give lots of opportunities to outlaws, broken men, various thugs, etc. Remember the mountain tribes? They are now very well armed; they would have free rein over a wide area. 

At least a few places are likely to get the Saltpans treatment. If you don't remember that incident from the books, then just think of it as something worse than the Mountain's treatment of the Riverlands.