(Spoilers) - The War makes no sense

[jcmontea]

3 hours ago, Hajk1984 said:

The dead only increase their number with those they kill. In which case I think each Dothraki and Unsullied should be able to take a few before falling. Of course if the NK can start raising the dead from centuries ago who have been buried but not burned then that may give him the sort of massive numerical advantage he needs. I just feel he needs a bigger force. Millions seems more appropriate.

The NK can raise the dead that haven’t been burned. 

He can also easily take down dragons and raise them from the dead. 

3 hours ago, Hajk1984 said:

I don't think there is such a serious threat to the human race based on what they've shown. Cersei knows they have dragons that can burn wights by the thousands and parity in numbers. So numbers parity and superior WMDs. I don't know if immorality would apply here. Certainly Jaime's reaction seems overblown. 

I guess we will have to disagree here. A 100k army with several giants that can easily regenerate itself lead by a guy on an ice dragon seems like a big deal. He wins the battle up North and then he has 200k with three dragons. With the south wide open and a tradition of not burning their dead. Not sure how it can be more pivotal must win fight than that.

[darmody]

6 hours ago, Hajk1984 said:

they have parity or even greater force than the Army of the Dead (assuming that Dany's estimate of a 100,000 or so is correct and all there is). But that doesn't make the Army of the Dead seem so terrifying as everyone is saying. It can even make Cersei's actions seem rational (also Jaime's silly in thinking there was any chance of facing the Dothraki, and not because of their fighting skills, but due to numbers alone). This would seem to make this supposedly apocalyptic threat that has been building since 1x01 and has inspired writings, religions and prophecies even in another continent rather manageable. But I'm not sure if that was the message that they even intended to give.

 

Not to mention Bran, the limits of whose powers are completely unknown. Aside from the fact that he may be the Night King, he can alter the past and probably could warg into zombies and zombie-dragons if he tried hard enough. The show have Our Heroes ridiculous potential power with that character. Unless he disappears from the story for no reason again. 

 

The show has kept the power of the dead vague enough for any guess as to how they'd do in a full-scale invasion of the South to be as good as the next. If you go by the wight Jon fought at Castle Black or the Battle of Hardhome, victory over them seems nigh-impossible. If you go by the Frozen Lake Battle, six guys--who were exposed to subzero temperatures for one to three days; or maybe a week, who knows?--can hold off 100,000 for a while at least. 

In the latter situation they had dragonglass, Valyrian steel, and fire. Those are the fudge factors, along with dragons, zombie-dragons, and the Night King's unrevealed abilities. How well will Our Heroes be able to use magical devices, and what counter-magic will the Night King employ? We don't know. If it were just man-to-undead man without magic (or without further magic, taking zombies and White Walkers for granted), the living would be toast. Because the Army of the Dead would pick up new recruits in every battle. If the Night King has no new tricks up his sleeve, the Army of the Dead should be toast. Because the living can outfit entire armies with dragonglass, and the Valyrian Steel Squad--Jon, Brienne, Sam, Arya (though I assume she'll scamper off to assassinate people on her own after reuniting with Jon), Jaime(?), and maybe others, I forget--will kill Walkers to disable as many undead as needed. Think about what a neat number-fudging tool that is. As many or as few wights can be taken out of consideration as they desire, virtually whenever they desire. 

Also, Dany has two more dragons and the zombie dragon should be take-downable. I'm thinking dragonglass scorpion bolts and/or dragonglass/Valyrian steel claw/tooth accessories for the other dragons. Easy-peasy. No doubt we'll see a regular dragon and the zombie dragon in a dogfight at some point. 

 

But of course the Army of the Dead will be as strong as it needs to be to fill requisite episode space and dramatic needs. The audience won't be allowed to think the threat is manageable, just like they weren't allowed to believe Cersei should have been toast in episode one this season. 

[jcmontea]

26 minutes ago, darmody said:

But of course the Army of the Dead will be as strong as it needs to be to fill requisite episode space and dramatic needs. The audience won't be allowed to think the threat is manageable, just like they weren't allowed to believe Cersei should have been toast in episode one this season. 

[darmody]

6 hours ago, jcmontea said:

She was trying to set up a siege of KL all season it just kept getting interupted.

She wasn't shown taking step one to besiege King's Landing, except sending the Dornish and Tyrellian liaisons home to retrieve their armies. I forget which was supposed to surround the capital.

Okay, that plan goes up in smoke. But in the meantime, she could have been doing something militarily. She's just sitting there at Dragonstone, upon the only route out to the sea from King's Landing. Euron sails past her at least twice, doesn't he? Why doesn't she blockade the bay? Why doesn't she otherwise cut off King's Landing from the mainland? Why doesn't she try to infiltrate the capital? What is her spymaster doing, besides informing her of big events that lots of people already know about? Has his spy network been co-opted somehow? Well, can be at least try to retake it?

After Euron hits her fleet, why does she do nothing for several episodes? Not even making a new plans? Because Jon's so dreamy?

[MinscS2]

29 minutes ago, darmody said:

After Euron hits her fleet, why does she do nothing for several episodes? Not even making a new plans? Because Jon's so dreamy?

She want's to take her dragons and chase down his fleet, but Tyrion talks her out of it

She want's to take her dragons and fly them to the Red Keep but initially Tyrion, and then Jon talks her out of it.

She stays on Dragonstone for almost 3 episodes (2,3 and the majority of 4) because she's waiting for their initial plan to take effect. Their plan was to have the Dornish and the Tyrells gather their armies and besiege kings landing. After they're both knocked out of the war however that plan failed, but we see Daenerys instantly hatch a new plan, when she takes her dragons and dothraki and assaults the Lannister/Tarly forces. 

After returning from this battle, news of the AotD arrive and she essentially puts the battle on "hold" while Jon & Co go north.

Edit: If the news of the AotD hadn't arrived and/or if Dany simply hadn't cared about them, what we see regarding the dothraki and unsullied outside of kings landing in episode 7 gives a pretty good hint of what would've happen if Dany hadn't put the war on hold: Instead of a meeting in the dragonpit and discussions of armistice, and a massive army just hanging around outside the city walls of Kings Landing doing nothing, said army would've either attacked or besieged the city, and Dany would've brought fire and blood instead of simply chilling in the air.
 

[darmody]

6 hours ago, jcmontea said:

I think the real reason this stuff made more sense back then was because we had a book not because the tv show was doing a great job conveying the information. 

I agree, but probably not in the way you intended. Which is presumably that book readers had the books to fall back upon if they needed more information. But I'm not a book reader, and I believe I followed the strategic situation better then than now. Admittedly, I didn't really know what the Riverlands was when I first watched. I wasn't aware of its status as a quasi-kingdom, nor which house ran it. I also didn't pay as close attention as I could have. 

But I was aware that Tywin sent the Mountain to attack Cat's family when Cat took Tyrion prisoner. I knew Ned dispatched crown forces to arrest the Mountain. I also knew that when Robb marched South to save his daddy, the Twins were in the same general area. The show got across to me that there was this territory between the capital and the North, where the Lannister-Stark conflict was playing out. And I knew the important lords there were the Freys and Cat's family. The relationship between those houses was well-drawn, because D&D were intent on setting up the Red Wedding, and made sure the audience kept some things straight. 

That being said, I couldn't follow the troop movements episode to episode, and I had no firm grasp on logistics or nuts and bolts strategy. But that's where I agree on the books making the earlier seasons better. Because without the books you have D&D showing the audience just enough to get through the season without them noticing none of it makes sense. That's different from a well-considered scenario written out over hundreds of pages which they truncated, jumped around in, and altered because they're telling a slightly different story and only have so much time in which to explain it.

One can feel the story beneath the story in the latter case, even you stay on the superficial level. Scratching beneath the surface would reveal a war that makes sense. With last season, on the other hand, I know that beneath the surface there's just a void. 

[jcmontea]

25 minutes ago, darmody said:

She wasn't shown taking step one to besiege King's Landing, except sending the Dornish and Tyrellian liaisons home to retrieve their armies. I forget which was supposed to surround the capital.

Okay, that plan goes up in smoke. But in the meantime, she could have been doing something militarily. She's just sitting there at Dragonstone, upon the only route out to the sea from King's Landing. Euron sails past her at least twice, doesn't he? Why doesn't she blockade the bay?

they did not address this at all. huge failing. they effectively count on the audience not knowing Dragonstone is strategically located to set up a blockade. 

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Why doesn't she otherwise cut off King's Landing from the mainland?

Isn't that the plan though? Dornish and Reach forces will establish a siege. Plan goes up in smoke. She gets pissed and wants to hit back at KL. Jon and Tyrion convinces her otherwise so she goes and destroys the Lannister/ Tarly army in the field. Theoretically the next step should be cutting off KL from the mainland but they get diverted with Bran's raven and the great wight hunt plan (sarcasm)

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Why doesn't she try to infiltrate the capital?

And do what? They already decided they were going the siege route. 

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What is her spymaster doing, besides informing her of big events that lots of people already know about?

He is doing jack s#!t 

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Has his spy network been co-opted somehow?

that they showed us in season 6 so we know the answer to that at the very least. 

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Well, can be at least try to retake it?

not sure cause all they show him doing is jack s#!t... that and complain 

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After Euron hits her fleet, why does she do nothing for several episodes? Not even making a new plans? Because Jon's so dreamy?

this is actually something they showed unlike a lot of other things. Euron hits her fleet at the end of Ep 2. She wants to go out and hunt him down in Ep 3 but her advisors convince her its not worth the risk. in ep 4 she says f* the risk and goes out and destroy the lannister army that was in the reach. then ep 5 comes and bran sends his raven and the whole focus shifts. 

there are questions that they never answer. like why no blockade? why doesn't varys do anything useful? why is Euron always in the right place at the right time? how she reacts to euron is not one of the questions they don't answer. 

[jcmontea]

12 minutes ago, MinscS2 said:

She want's to take her dragons and chase down his fleet, but Tyrion talks her out of it

She want's to take her dragons and fly them to the Red Keep but initially Tyrion, and then Jon talks her out of it.

She stays on Dragonstone for almost 3 episodes (2,3 and the majority of 4) because she's waiting for their initial plan to take effect. Their plan was to have the Dornish and the Tyrells gather their armies and besiege kings landing. After they're both knocked out of the war however that plan failed, but we see Daenerys instantly hatch a new plan, when she takes her dragons and dothraki and assaults the Lannister/Tarly forces. 

After returning from this battle, news of the AotD arrive and she essentially puts the battle on "hold" while Jon & Co go north.
 

[Megorova]

1 hour ago, darmody said:

If the Night King has no new tricks up his sleeve, the Army of the Dead should be toast. Because the living can outfit entire armies with dragonglass, and the Valyrian Steel Squad--Jon, Brienne, Sam, Arya (though I assume she'll scamper off to assassinate people on her own after reuniting with Jon), Jaime(?), and maybe others, I forget--will kill Walkers to disable as many undead as needed. Think about what a neat number-fudging tool that is. As many or as few wights can be taken out of consideration as they desire, virtually whenever they desire. 

Night's King and White Walkers know, that the Heroes know, that by killing White Walker, they can eliminate all wights, that were created by that Walker. Thus NK will take counter measures.

He will keep White Walkers as far away from front lines. So between Heroes and White Walkers will be entire army of wights, all 100,000 of them. And several dozens of giants. And ice-breathing Undead dragon. It's nearly impossible to get thru such tought defence line.

Also, for some reason, I think that it's impossible to eliminate Undead giant with single stab of dragonglass, or single swing of Valyrian steal. No?

[darmody]

5 hours ago, Hajk1984 said:

Is it even immoral? One country is clearly at war with mine and now they (as the North is now part of Dany's dominion) are facing a roughly equal enemy on their other border. What motivation do I really have (even morally) to go and defend their country when they won't even guarantee me a peace  and security of my borders following this battle?

That's like asking if blowing up the Sept was immoral considering the alternative was Cersei being convicted by the ecclesiastical court. Morality is not synonymous with "what gets/keeps Cersei on top."

She has no real claim on the throne, and only got there through mass murder. I don't know how it can be considered moral for her to do anything for the sake of continuing her rule, even if you can say other rulers got to where they were by murdering people. 

Taking her rule for granted helps the case only slightly. She doesn't consider the North a separate country, despite what treasonous (to her) and illegitimate (who appointed Jon Lord of Winterfell, or lord of anything for that matter; why does he even have his head?) lords declare. Those are supposed to be her subjects, if she's truly Queen of the Seven Kingdoms. 

Granted, we can understand her not being willing to risk her crown for the sake of treasonous subjects. But she's supposed to care about the Westerlands and Crownlands, in the very least, and their chances of survival are a lot better if the Army of the Dead is fought in the North, rather than the middle or the South. 

At what point does protecting her crown over her people become immoral? Certainly at the point of using her troops as back-up in the South, I think. Like a last line of defense, letting the advanced guard of the North, Vale, and Targaryen army die defending everything from the Riverlands north if necessary. But she's not even going to be doing that much. She's going to use a sell-sword army to stab Dany in the back. That's immoral. 

 

I'll say again, morality is not synonymous with keeping Cersei on top. At some point she has to risk her crown for the sake of humanity, otherwise she's immoral. 

[jcmontea]

6 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Also, for some reason, I think that it's impossible to eliminate Undead giant with single stab of dragonglass, or single swing of Valyrian steal. No?

so i hate to say it because its really how ever they want to write it. 

but I thought i read Cogman say that a dragonglass stab breaks the Night King's spell. this is also what Benjen seems to imply in s6e6. 

So if that is true, than all it would take is a single stab to take down not only a giant, but also undead viserion. 

[darmody]

57 minutes ago, jcmontea said:

that they showed us in season 6 so we know the answer to that at the very least. 

They showed little birds working for her. We don't even know if these were all Varys' birds in King's Landing, let alone all of his informants. Because he must have had people at all levels of society telling him things. (No way homeless children know what lords and ladies talk about behind closed doors.) Unless we're to believe all such information came indirectly through street urchins. 

We can guess Cersei co-opted Varys' entire network, but we're not told. Even if she has, I don't see why Varys can't try to co-opt it back. They're called Spy Games. 

Oh wait, Cersei's enemies are compelled to sit back while she makes all the moves. I forgot. 

[darmody]

52 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Night's King and White Walkers know, that the Heroes know, that by killing White Walker, they can eliminate all wights, that were created by that Walker. Thus NK will take counter measures.

He will keep White Walkers as far away from front lines. So between Heroes and White Walkers will be entire army of wights, all 100,000 of them. And several dozens of giants. And ice-breathing Undead dragon. It's nearly impossible to get thru such tought defence line.

Also, for some reason, I think that it's impossible to eliminate Undead giant with single stab of dragonglass, or single swing of Valyrian steal. No?

I doubt we'll be denied single combats between Jon and White Walkers, Brienne and White Walkers, Jaime and White Walkers, etc. But that would be the smart play. 

Your scenario would be the Army of the Dead's best strategy, but of course if 6 Good Men could do as much damage as they did at the frozen lake, I don't see it as impossible, no. However, there is what TV Tropes calls the Law of Conservation of Ninjitsu. Whereas one ninja is unbeatable, a crowd of ninjas is just cannon fodder. Whenever the living are outnumbered, they'll destroy 10,000 undead for every human life. Whenever the forces are evenly matched, humans will die by the thousands. 150,000 allied living soldiers can be overwhelmed by the Army of the Dead, even though six frozen guys held their own for several minutes. 

You didn't seem to factor in Dany's dragons or Bran. The Ice Dragon evens things up a bit, but I think the odds should be in the living's favor considering magic weapons, magic dragons, and magic Bran. Only caveat, again, is that the unknown can fudge things. Maybe Bran is omnipotent, maybe he has less power than we think. Maybe we've seen all the Night King can do, maybe he's got tricks up his sleeve. Maybe the Ice Dragon is invincible, maybe he gets killed by one or two of Dany's dragons. I dunno. 

[jcmontea]

18 minutes ago, darmody said:

They showed little birds working for her. We don't even know if these were all Varys' birds in King's Landing, let alone all of his informants. Because he must have had people at all levels of society telling him things. (No way homeless children know what lords and ladies talk about behind closed doors.) Unless we're to believe all such information came indirectly through street urchins. 

We can guess Cersei co-opted Varys' entire network, but we're not told. Even if she has, I don't see why Varys can't try to co-opt it back. They're called Spy Games. 

Oh wait, Cersei's enemies are compelled to sit back while she makes all the moves. I forgot. 

they showed Qyburn specifically taking over a group of Vary's little birds. 

Your right they didn't show us whether that was 100% of them. 50% of them. 20% of them. 11.432% of them... 

[Megorova]

2 hours ago, darmody said:

Okay, that plan goes up in smoke. But in the meantime, she could have been doing something militarily. She's just sitting there at Dragonstone, upon the only route out to the sea from King's Landing. Euron sails past her at least twice, doesn't he? Why doesn't she blockade the bay?

I don't think that her fleet is stationed at Dragonstone.

On the night Dany was born, entire fleet of Targaryens shipwrecked at Dragonstone. It's very stormy in that region. Not safe for ships.

Also thru entire season 7, we saw Dragonstone Island from all sides, and there was no ships there, or places where they can be moored (only small beach in front of castle's steps).

When Dany's/Jon's/Theon's ships arrived there, they didn't went to some sort of port/dock/pier, instead they sailed close to coastline, and used boats to get on shore.

No port here:

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/gameofthrones/images/0/04/701_Samwell_book_Dragonstone_map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170826014440

According to Wikia, bigger part of Royal Fleet of Lannisters were stationed at Dragonstone. But there's no place for that many ships (160), or for Dany's fleet.

 

Where can they be moored here? not enough space:

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/gameofthrones/images/8/83/Dragonstone-Island-Concept-Art.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20170901144851

Unless show creators used much smaller decoration to pose as Dragonsone Island.

No port here either:

https://cdna.artstation.com/p/assets/images/images/006/764/782/large/kieran-belshaw-dragonstone-islandtopview-v003-tagged.jpg?1501083523

Dragonlanding area from this last picture is from that scene with Jon and Drogon, this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNV4vywsgsY

[Jabul]

44 minutes ago, darmody said:

They showed little birds working for her. We don't even know if these were all Varys' birds in King's Landing, let alone all of his informants. Because he must have had people at all levels of society telling him things. (No way homeless children know what lords and ladies talk about behind closed doors.) Unless we're to believe all such information came indirectly through street urchins. 

We can guess Cersei co-opted Varys' entire network, but we're not told. Even if she has, I don't see why Varys can't try to co-opt it back. They're called Spy Games. 

Oh wait, Cersei's enemies are compelled to sit back while she makes all the moves. I forgot. 

The whole little birds thing is overdone. Varys was a horribly abused child on his own in Essos. He learned how to survive when the odds were against him. He gradually learned how important it was to "get the goods" on powerful people. He could not have done this primarily by making friends with kids who were 6 and 7 years old. He gets to be the spymaster for the King of Westeros. Later, he works on various schemes both for and against the king who replaces his original Westerosi employer. He befriends a fat Pentosi cheese monger and plans a major wedding as part of a political alliance. The cheese monger comes over to KL, and the two men hold a strategy session in the passages below KL. Varys also makes an alliance with a prostitute who is definitely not a student in the primary grades. And so on. 

Then this guy is completely neutralized because the Creep in the Red Keep corners the market on plums? Nah, I don't think so. 

[jcmontea]

7 minutes ago, Megorova said:

I don't think that her fleet is stationed at Dragonstone.

On the night Dany was born, entire fleet of Targaryens shipwrecked at Dragonstone. It's very stormy in that region. Not safe for ships.

Also thru entire season 7, we saw Dragonstone Island from all sides, and there was no ships there, or places where they can be moored (only small beach in front of castle's steps).

When Dany's/Jon's/Theon's ships arrived there, they didn't went to some sort of port/dock/pier, instead they sailed close to coastline, and used boats to get on shore.

No port here:

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/gameofthrones/images/0/04/701_Samwell_book_Dragonstone_map.png/revision/latest?cb=20170826014440

This is not something they spell out 100%.

But Jaime says in s7e1 that one of the reasons he thought they would land at Dragonstone is because of the deep water ports. A reasonable inference is that her ships were there.

[jcmontea]

1 minute ago, Jabul said:

The whole little birds thing is overdone. Varys was a horribly abused child on his own in Essos. He learned how to survive when the odds were against him. He gradually learned how important it was to "get the goods" on powerful people. He could not have done this primarily by making friends with kids who were 6 and 7 years old. He gets to be the spymaster for the King of Westeros. Later, he works on various schemes both for and against the king who replaces his original Westerosi employer. He befriends a fat Pentosi cheese monger and plans a major wedding as part of a political alliance. The cheese monger comes over to KL, and the two men hold a strategy session in the passages below KL. Varys also makes an alliance with a prostitute who is definitely not a student in the primary grades. And so on. 

Then this guy is completely neutralized because the Creep in the Red Keep corners the market on plums? Nah, I don't think so. 

As crazy as that is, that is the only reasonable watsonian assumption if we assume Varys is not being disloyal. 

[Megorova]

1 hour ago, darmody said:

I doubt we'll be denied single combats between Jon and White Walkers, Brienne and White Walkers, Jaime and White Walkers, etc. But that would be the smart play. 

Your scenario would be the Army of the Dead's best strategy, but of course if 6 Good Men could do as much damage as they did at the frozen lake, I don't see it as impossible, no.

I was thinking that Valyrian Squad probably will ride dragons towards location with WW. Paratroopers-dragonriders

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However, there is what TV Tropes calls the Law of Conservation of Ninjitsu. Whereas one ninja is unbeatable, a crowd of ninjas is just cannon fodder.

That's because if there's one character, then he is a Main Character. Which also means that he has Plot Armor. Which makes him Invincible.

[Jabul]

6 hours ago, Count Balerion said:

It's OK; we'll read it after it gets approved.

All right, it looks like the "more plausible war" thread should be accessible now. Here's the link again. 

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/148777-a-more-plausible-war/