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Tyrion1991

(Spoilers) - The War makes no sense

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On 9/10/2017 at 4:31 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

Near as I can tell, Cersei has pulled off an impossible victory. She has convinced the Lords of Westeros to side with her and accept a Lannister Queen. Admitted her incestuous relationship with Jamie. Has managed to get people to forgive and forget her murdering the High Septon and huge numbers of the Nobility. To forget about her public walk of shame. Yet when all was said and done, Dany needed Cersei to agree to help her. Which makes very clear that the Lannister faction was not only still relevant but powerful enough to matter. Basically everything has gone her way.

 

In particular I didn't like that Danys only victory has no lasting consequences. You would be forgiven for thinking most of the Lannister army was destroyed and all of its grain which was explicitly mentioned as being vital to continue the war. They mentioned that the Lords were only following her because they (stupidly) believed a big ballista could kill a dragon and forgot she had three of them. So you would expect food riots, the army to starve and all the other nastiness. Especially since what Cersei has done should make her an extremely unpopular Queen. Instead, nothing comes of this battle. Cersei simply gets the plot gift of a big stack of cash to buy the Golden Company. Plus, she loses Casterly Rock and this is somehow depicted as a victory. Really the psychological blow of losing Casterly Rock would destroy House Lannister. I would shouldn't Kings Landing starve during winter if all the grain was destroyed?

 

Also the actions of the Iron Bank do not make sense. They are risking Dany destroying the city of Braavos and seem to be opposing her because she freed the slaves; which contradicts the citys lore directly. Braavos opposes slavery. 

The show does keep telling us that Danys dragons and Dothraki are a threat. But nothing ever comes of this. People do not abandon Cersei because of this. The victories Dany gets don't hurt Cersei in any significant or real way. Dany does not take any territory apart from one castle which she abandons. 

 

Plus, the entire plot has hinged upon people randomly being unwilling to just kill Cersei. Examples being Arya abandoning her quest to kill Cersei and Dany being talked out of burning down the Red Keep. Yet in both cases the showrunners wax lyrical about how evil it would be to do this, which is laughable considering how evil Cersei is and that none of these would involve taking innocent lives. If Tolkein had given Frodo a good dragon he would not have depicted it as dodgy to burn down Barad Dur. 

 

 

 

-she was accepted as queen because the dead former king was her husband and the last two former kings were her sons. There are no Baratheon heirs that are legitimized true orbs from Robert's families and no Lannister's related to Joffrey or Tommen supersede her. There is nobody close enough in the show verse to make claim on Robert's crown than Cersei. 

-She has admitted an affair the same way the Targs practiced incest. She has all the centralized power in KL and nobody is going to challenge her. 

-the official story is that Baelor's destruction is an accident and nobody is going to challenge her because she is queen. The one person willing to challenge her was Olenna, but Olenna was siding with the ousted daughter of the Mad King who slaughtered millions, and was on the team of savage Dothraki and foreign invaders. So the only opposition who is powerful enough and willing to side against her in the KL power structure defected. 

-Cersei had the Lannister's and the Westerlands, the standing army at KL, what's left of the Reach who broke ties with Olenna after she fell. She doesn't have much, but Dany isn't going to fight two wars when one is clearly more important. 

-The Iron Bank does not trust someone who already proved willing to murder city leaders under the guise of a truce or trust. Who broke down conventions of cities she conquered and murdered their nobility, who sided with savages. They have no gaurantee Dany and her dragons won't turn on them and break one more institution if they get out of line. While the Lannister's have a reputation of paying their debts. The safer bet of keeping the status quo is Cersei. 

-people in Westeros are more willing to roll with the queen they know over the lady from far away whose father was a psycho who needed to be ousted and who is bringing WMD's and savages to their home. You are also ignoring that Westeros is fractured, so Cersei is just one piece to a greater puzzle. Her influence isn't much greater than Joff's was at the start of the WOT5K's. She's just still important. 

-If Dany burns KL she is viewed as a foreign invader who brought savages to ravage their land and then burnt down their capitol. She wants to build a different type of contract with her people. I can see why she wants to fight a more strategical war. By not doing that she already won over a John Snow and may have gained the North and Vale. Arya is understandable  as finally her family is reunited and she wanted to head home.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Count Balerion said:

One thing I can't get past is how blowing up the sept is no big deal.

 

4 hours ago, Jabul said:

Murdering the High Septon

The Faith is one of the pillars of the Seven Kingdoms. There are devoted septons, septas, and laity throughout the kingdoms.  

First High Septon was killed by mob in S2E6. This is from GOT wikia:

"The High Septon is captured by an angry mob and is torn to pieces as one of his attackers holds up one of his arms".

Next High Septon (the one who wed Tyrion and Sansa, Joffrey and Margaery, Tommen and Margaery): 

Spoiler

Lancel Lannister along other Sparrows break into the chamber, attacking Olyvar and scaring the prostitutes away. The High Septon is aghast by the attack, but he's soon stripped of his clothes and paraded as a sinner through the streets of King's Landing; with a sparrow beating his hands when the High Septon tries to cover his genitalia. Beaten and humiliated, the High Septon approaches the Small Council and demands the execution of the Sparrows, particularly their leader, citing that an attack on his person is an attack on the gods themselves. Qyburn reveals to the council where the High Septon had been attacked, to which the old man replies he had been preaching to the whores for their salvation. Maester Pycelle seems particularly bothered by the Sparrow's treatment of the High Septon; indignantly stating that "a man's private affairs ought to remain private!" Despite this, Queen Cersei has him thrown into the dungeons of the Red Keep.

Why would people, general public, care about fate of High Sparrow, if they themselves killed one High Septon, and accepted Queen's decision when she fired and imprisoned another?

Also majority of those fanatics that supported High Sparrow, were in Beilor's Great Sept, to see Cersei's trial, and died there. That's why blowing up the sept is no big deal. Non religious people, and those that are not fanatically religious, have other problems to deal with, REAL problems, for example - upcoming war with Barbarian Queen, food for their children, winter is coming, etc.

Edited by Megorova

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1 hour ago, Count Balerion said:

One thing I can't get past is how blowing up the sept is no big deal. Does anyone other than Hot Pie even allude to it?

Everybody suspects it was cersei. But there isn't enough evidence. She can claim it was an accident.

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An accident that there was a mass of explosives that went off at Cerseis trial when she and her son were not in attendance but all of her enemies were? That's more than suspicious.

The Lannisters have no claim on the Iron Throne. Cersei can't rule in her own right as a widow or queen mother once her husband and children are dead. 

2 hours ago, lancerman said:

-she was accepted as queen because the dead former king was her husband and the last two former kings were her sons. There are no Baratheon heirs that are legitimized true orbs from Robert's families and no Lannister's related to Joffrey or Tommen supersede her. There is nobody close enough in the show verse to make claim on Robert's crown than Cersei. 

-She has admitted an affair the same way the Targs practiced incest. She has all the centralized power in KL and nobody is going to challenge her. 

-the official story is that Baelor's destruction is an accident and nobody is going to challenge her because she is queen. The one person willing to challenge her was Olenna, but Olenna was siding with the ousted daughter of the Mad King who slaughtered millions, and was on the team of savage Dothraki and foreign invaders. So the only opposition who is powerful enough and willing to side against her in the KL power structure defected. 

-Cersei had the Lannister's and the Westerlands, the standing army at KL, what's left of the Reach who broke ties with Olenna after she fell. She doesn't have much, but Dany isn't going to fight two wars when one is clearly more important. 

-The Iron Bank does not trust someone who already proved willing to murder city leaders under the guise of a truce or trust. Who broke down conventions of cities she conquered and murdered their nobility, who sided with savages. They have no gaurantee Dany and her dragons won't turn on them and break one more institution if they get out of line. While the Lannister's have a reputation of paying their debts. The safer bet of keeping the status quo is Cersei. 

-people in Westeros are more willing to roll with the queen they know over the lady from far away whose father was a psycho who needed to be ousted and who is bringing WMD's and savages to their home. You are also ignoring that Westeros is fractured, so Cersei is just one piece to a greater puzzle. Her influence isn't much greater than Joff's was at the start of the WOT5K's. She's just still important. 

-If Dany burns KL she is viewed as a foreign invader who brought savages to ravage their land and then burnt down their capitol. She wants to build a different type of contract with her people. I can see why she wants to fight a more strategical war. By not doing that she already won over a John Snow and may have gained the North and Vale. Arya is understandable  as finally her family is reunited and she wanted to head home.

 

 

 

Youre really understating all of the stuff Cersei has done to the Nobles and people of Westeros. Only last season a popular movement had her imprisoned and publicly shamed in the streets. Her own uncle was party to her trial and presumably the Lannister nobility.

What exactly has Dany done to be so despised by the Nobility that they would side with Cersei over her? Yes she has troops from Essos. Big deal. That Dothraki horde hasn't done any looting, raping, sacking and has barely been involved. They also haven't got the memo that Dany banned slavery; so they're idiots to buy one. So you are overstating people's reasons to hate Dany on the show and worse assuming we are meant to sympathise with team Cersei.

 

I mean the show has us scoff at the notion of the people overthrowing Cersei for Dany only a season after the Faith essentially did that. 

 

Lets assume the Nobles are rational people.

1) As observed by Jamie, they cannot beat Dany and her dragons if she actually starts trying to kill them. Why fight a war you can't win?

2) They are risking their land, property and title to keep Cersei on the Iron Throne. If they side with Dany, they lose nothing. The only reason Dany wants to kill them is because they don't bend the knee as shown by Jon and all her other allies. Why risk all for the sake of Cersei? Wouldn't you just leave the sinking ship?

3) They are going to make big life and death decisions to oppose Dany based on third hand information given by Cersei? Jon when he met Dany seemed pretty convinced she was a good person so why would all the other Lords be making such bad and ill informed decisions? Rational people seek out information before committing to a side.

 

So why would a petty lord in the Westerlands with a few dozen knights, who has heard rumours that Cersei murdered Kevin and the Nobles and knows there is this Targaryen Queen with dragons coming decide "I must defend good Queen Cersei to the end!!!"? The Lannister and Reach armies staying loyal to Cersei is entirely dependent on them being stupid.

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22 hours ago, Megorova said:

S7E4:

"RANDYLL TARLEY and his son DICKON come riding up on horseback. RANDYLL addresses JAIME.

RANDYLL: The granaries are being emptied and loaded into wagons, My Lord.

JAIME: The current harvest?

DICKON: We have teams of men collecting it and more farmers in the Reach.

JAIME looks over to BRONN.

JAIME: Ser Bronn, will you accompany the Tarleys and help them accelerate this process?

BRONN: I'm not much for shoveling weight.

JAIME: No, but motivating reluctant farmers to hand over their harvest, I've heard you guys have a real talent for that."

 

Later at Dragonstone:

"DAENERYS: You will stay. All my allies are gone. They've been taken from me while I've been sitting here on this island.

TYRION: We still have the largest army.

DAENERYS: Who won't be able to eat because Cersei has taken all the food from the Reach."

 

Scripts from here:

https://genius.com/albums/Game-of-thrones/Season-7-scripts

Wait...they literally wrote that the Reach, who can muster 70,000 soldiers when taking their time and 45,000 in a hurry, allowed the Lannisters, who just wiped out the Tyrells and killed who know else by blowing up the Westerosi Vatican, to just march in and take what is most likely the last harvest right as winter, a winter that the Citadel is predecting will be very harsh?!?! 

This writing makes zero sense. 

The fighting in the Reach should be far more intense than what was presented. The only reason it wasn't is because D$D can't be bothered to craft anything that actually takes into account the political landscape of these regions. Olenna would have already worked to form an anti-Lannister Coalition and made sure it was strong before allying with Dany. You can bet on that. She would have called on the Redwynes and hightowers for sure.

 

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53 minutes ago, The Golden Wolf said:

 You can bet on that. She would have called on the Redwynes and hightowers for sure.

I thought about that and in my understanding of the situation the Hightowers would not follow because they never do. I mean Olenna has legs and she can run .... + (and that is the best part) if the Lannisters can plunder so fast ... Olenna can do that too when she flees.

I guess the Lannisters used a cheat to disable the A.I.

And btw. did Tarly install something to fight dragons at home ? If Dany wouldn't be such an idiot Horn Hill would be burned down by now ... she killed Tarly with fire she can as well burn his home.

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1 hour ago, SirArthur said:

I thought about that and in my understanding of the situation the Hightowers would not follow because they never do. I mean Olenna has legs and she can run .... + (and that is the best part) if the Lannisters can plunder so fast ... Olenna can do that too when she flees.

I guess the Lannisters used a cheat to disable the A.I.

And btw. did Tarly install something to fight dragons at home ? If Dany wouldn't be such an idiot Horn Hill would be burned down by now ... she killed Tarly with fire she can as well burn his home.

Good point on the Hightowers who seem to never want to get involved anymore since the "Dance" their overly ambitious forefathers caused. 

Olenna was tired of running, afterall she did not go through the fitness regimen that Gendry did that allowed him to run 100-50 miles back to Eastwatch in snow.

Still the point stands that there is no reason for the other houses of the Reach to allow the lannister army to just come in and take the harvest and raid the larders. take the gold from highgarden sure...but take all the food as well??? now we gotta fight. 

its even worse when you remember Dany burned a ton of it because...it looked cool on screen:bang: 

 

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3 hours ago, The Golden Wolf said:

Wait...they literally wrote that the Reach, who can muster 70,000 soldiers when taking their time and 45,000 in a hurry, allowed the Lannisters, who just wiped out the Tyrells and killed who know else by blowing up the Westerosi Vatican, to just march in and take what is most likely the last harvest right as winter, a winter that the Citadel is predecting will be very harsh?!?! 

This writing makes zero sense. 

The fighting in the Reach should be far more intense than what was presented. The only reason it wasn't is because D$D can't be bothered to craft anything that actually takes into account the political landscape of these regions. Olenna would have already worked to form an anti-Lannister Coalition and made sure it was strong before allying with Dany. You can bet on that. She would have called on the Redwynes and hightowers for sure.

Majority of Tyrell's soldiers were near the sept, and died in explosion. Mace Tyrell brought there many soldiers, in case if his son's trial will end badly. So Olenna not only lost her entire family, she also lost most of her army. She thought that her bannermen in Reach will support her against Lannisters. But instead they sided with Cersei, and attacked Highgarden. The battle didn't lasted long, because she didn't had many soldiers.

Even if her other bannermen, aside from Tarlys, were ready to support her, it all happened too fast and sudden. She thought that in case if they will go to war against her, then they (Lannisters) will send soldiers from King's Landing. She haven't thought that instead they will send soldiers from Casterly Rock.

They marched along Ocean Road passing by Lannisport - Tarbeck Hall - Crakehall - Old Oak - straight to Highgarden. That road is far from other cities, so their army went unseen.

Also out of those four cities only Old Oak is located in lands of Reach (other three are loyal to Lannisters, and located in their lands). Their lady Arwyn Oakheart was part of Mace Tyrell's war councils. I assume that she was there with Mace, and died in explosion. Her son Arys Oakheart was killed in Dorne by Areo Hotah. So I doubt that remaining Oakhearts will support Olenna. Or even if they wanted to, they were unable to do so, because probably majority of their forces were killed at Dorne, and at KL. 

Hightowers reside at Oldtown, which is located as far from Highgarden as Old Oak. So if people from Old Oak will decide to inform Hightowers about approaching army of Lannisters, their messengers will arrive to Oldtown at the same time as Lannister troops will arrive to Highgarden. By the time Hightowers will send help to Olenna, the battle will be already over.

Redwynes live at Arbour island, and even if they will be informed about Lannister army marching from Casterly Rock towards Highgarden, they won't be able to immediately sail to mainland, or quickly prepare enough soldiers to aid Olenna.

Out of those 45,000-70,000 soldiers, nearly all from Highgarden died at Baelor's Sept, Tarly's sided with Lannisters, Redwynes and Hightowers were too far, and too late to intercept troops coming from Casterly Rock. Olenna haven't suspected that Lannisters may abandon their ancestral home for the sake of suddenly ambushing Highgarden. That's why Cersei made a very cunning decision, no one expected something like this.

Political landscapes of those regions were taken into account. So D&D's writing has sense. Furthermore, seems to me, that their writing very often is too complex to be understood by general audience.

 

Add to that that Tarly's Horn Hill is located near Roseroad (that leads from Oldtown thru Highgarden to King's Landing), between Oldtown and Highgarden. So Tarly's were in perfect location to intercept any aid sent to Olenna from her possible supporters. I think that troops from Horn Hill suddenly ambushed Highgarden, and only later they were joined by Lannister troops that arrived from Casterly Rock. So mostly Olenna's people were killed by Tarly's people.

Edited by Megorova

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2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Majority of Tyrell's soldiers were near the sept, and died in explosion. Mace Tyrell brought there many soldiers, in case if his son's trial will end badly. So Olenna not only lost her entire family, she also lost most of her army. She thought that her bannermen in Reach will support her against Lannisters. But instead they sided with Cersei, and attacked Highgarden. The battle didn't lasted long, because she didn't had many soldiers.

Even if her other bannermen, aside from Tarlys, were ready to support her, it all happened too fast and sudden. She thought that in case if they will go to war against her, then they (Lannisters) will send soldiers from King's Landing. She haven't thought that instead they will send soldiers from Casterly Rock.

They marched along Ocean Road passing by Lannisport - Tarbeck Hall - Crakehall - Old Oak - straight to Highgarden. That road is far from other cities, so their army went unseen.

Also out of those four cities only Old Oak is located in lands of Reach (other three are loyal to Lannisters, and located in their lands). Their lady Arwyn Oakheart was part of Mace Tyrell's war councils. I assume that she was there with Mace, and died in explosion. Her son Arys Oakheart was killed in Dorne by Areo Hotah. So I doubt that remaining Oakhearts will support Olenna. Or even if they wanted to, they were unable to do so, because probably majority of their forces were killed at Dorne, and at KL. 

Hightowers reside at Oldtown, which is located as far from Highgarden as Old Oak. So if people from Old Oak will decide to inform Hightowers about approaching army of Lannisters, their messengers will arrive to Oldtown at the same time as Lannister troops will arrive to Highgarden. By the time Hightowers will send help to Olenna, the battle will be already over.

Redwynes live at Arbour island, and even if they will be informed about Lannister army marching from Casterly Rock towards Highgarden, they won't be able to immediately sail to mainland, or quickly prepare enough soldiers to aid Olenna.

Out of those 45,000-70,000 soldiers, nearly all from Highgarden died at Baelor's Sept, Tarly's sided with Lannisters, Redwynes and Hightowers were too far, and too late to intercept troops coming from Casterly Rock. Olenna haven't suspected that Lannisters may abandon their ancestral home for the sake of suddenly ambushing Highgarden. That's why Cersei made a very cunning decision, no one expected something like this.

Political landscapes of those regions were taken into account. So D&D's writing has sense. Furthermore, seems to me, that their writing very often is too complex to be understood by general audience.

 

Add to that that Tarly's Horn Hill is located near Roseroad (that leads from Oldtown thru Highgarden to King's Landing), between Oldtown and Highgarden. So Tarly's were in perfect location to intercept any aid sent to Olenna from her possible supporters. I think that troops from Horn Hill suddenly ambushed Highgarden, and only later they were joined by Lannister troops that arrived from Casterly Rock. So mostly Olenna's people were killed by Tarly's people.

okay first off you are wrong on that. there are no Tyrell soldiers anywhere near the sept of Baelor when it explodes. we have views of the sept from all sides both interior and exterior during the trial and there are no Tyrell soldiers to be seen anywhere. So no the majority of the Tyrell Soldiers were not wiped out in the Sept explosion. 

Secondly...while we do know that some nobles of note from regions surrounding Kingslanding for sure died in the terrorist attack launched by Cersie Lannister, we do not know exactly who died because we were never told. Also Arys Oakheart never went to Dorne in the show. In fact he was in Kingslanding and watching over Tommen with his whereabouts unconfirmed as of Tommen's death. was he in the sept or was he just shoved aside? no one knows exactly. also what show are you watching were there has been fighting in Dorne? No one has attacked Dorne. 

The Reach has literally only participated in the Battle on the Blackwater and in the mopping up campaign in the Riverlands and therefore would actually be the Third most rested forces in all of Westeros.

Also you call your banners before your opponent makes their move if you believe you have to fight. The Reach should have been up in arms to fight Cersie and the Lannisters or at the very least protect what is theirs but instead we get Randyll capitulating like a little bitch and betraying Highgarden because of some words said by Jaime Lannister...The Kingslayer and someone who is accused of being in an Incestuous relationship with his twin sister, the Queen, that resulted in three incest bastards that usurped the name Baratheon...that is some ol' BS.

Dany may be coming to reclaim the Iron Throne at the head of an Army composed of Eunuch Warriors and the notoriously Murpillaping recently reformed Dothraki, but she also is the last Targ (that they know of), has three Dragons, and bonus isn't married and who has a son the right age??? 

and no their writing is nowhere near being complex for people to be confused. What is on the screen should leave no questions but instead it leaves more and more questions

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5 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

A. An accident that there was a mass of explosives that went off at Cerseis trial when she and her son were not in attendance but all of her enemies were? That's more than suspicious.

B. The Lannisters have no claim on the Iron Throne. Cersei can't rule in her own right as a widow or queen mother once her husband and children are dead. 

 

C. Youre really understating all of the stuff Cersei has done to the Nobles and people of Westeros. Only last season a popular movement had her imprisoned and publicly shamed in the streets. Her own uncle was party to her trial and presumably the Lannister nobility.

D. What exactly has Dany done to be so despised by the Nobility that they would side with Cersei over her? Yes she has troops from Essos. Big deal. That Dothraki horde hasn't done any looting, raping, sacking and has barely been involved. They also haven't got the memo that Dany banned slavery; so they're idiots to buy one. So you are overstating people's reasons to hate Dany on the show and worse assuming we are meant to sympathise with team Cersei.

 

I mean the show has us scoff at the notion of the people overthrowing Cersei for Dany only a season after the Faith essentially did that. 

 

Lets assume the Nobles are rational people.

1) As observed by Jamie, they cannot beat Dany and her dragons if she actually starts trying to kill them. Why fight a war you can't win?

2) They are risking their land, property and title to keep Cersei on the Iron Throne. If they side with Dany, they lose nothing. The only reason Dany wants to kill them is because they don't bend the knee as shown by Jon and all her other allies. Why risk all for the sake of Cersei? Wouldn't you just leave the sinking ship?

3) They are going to make big life and death decisions to oppose Dany based on third hand information given by Cersei? Jon when he met Dany seemed pretty convinced she was a good person so why would all the other Lords be making such bad and ill informed decisions? Rational people seek out information before committing to a side.

 

So why would a petty lord in the Westerlands with a few dozen knights, who has heard rumours that Cersei murdered Kevin and the Nobles and knows there is this Targaryen Queen with dragons coming decide "I must defend good Queen Cersei to the end!!!"? The Lannister and Reach armies staying loyal to Cersei is entirely dependent on them being stupid.

A. Right. And what is the official explanation for the young king's demise? Did he slip on a banana peel, go out a window, and fall to his death? There is also the fact that Lannisters used wildfire to defend the capital from Stannis. Some people would know that it was originally Cersei's idea, adapted and improved on by Tyrion. Everyone would realize that the "queen" was aware of the presence of wildfire in KL. 

B. Right. There is also the matter of treason. By now, it appears that just about everyone acknowledges that Stannis's charges were true. Even that hairy guy up north at Eastwatch makes reference to the queen who fucks her brother. Even if Cersei wants to claim a right to rule, why would she assume that lords and commoners are going to accept a Lannister queen? Why doesn't she call herself Cersei Baratheon? 

C. Correct

D. So far, the Dothraki have won a decisive military victory. That is what an army is supposed to do. Also see my comment on your #3 below. 

1) And why ignore Westerosi history, march across a continent, and just invite the horsemen and the dragons to catch you in the open and wipe you out?

2) Good points

3) Rational people seek out information. Rational people also provide information. Of course, this doesn't happen with characters in a TV series when the show runners prevent them from being rational. Ravens can go from Dragonstone to places like Horn Hill. Even if info isn't sent to Tarly, or to the Vale, or to the North until a red priestess recommends it. or to the Riverlands. or..., there is no reason why people from these places couldn't go to Dragonstone. Just about any leader with a functioning brain would at least send a trusted aid to converse with the Mother of Dragons. 

 

5 hours ago, The Golden Wolf said:

Wait...they literally wrote that the Reach, who can muster 70,000 soldiers when taking their time and 45,000 in a hurry, allowed the Lannisters, who just wiped out the Tyrells and killed who know else by blowing up the Westerosi Vatican, to just march in and take what is most likely the last harvest right as winter, a winter that the Citadel is predecting will be very harsh?!?! 

This writing makes zero sense. 

The fighting in the Reach should be far more intense than what was presented. The only reason it wasn't is because D$D can't be bothered to craft anything that actually takes into account the political landscape of these regions. Olenna would have already worked to form an anti-Lannister Coalition and made sure it was strong before allying with Dany. You can bet on that. She would have called on the Redwynes and hightowers for sure.

 

Quite so. 

The bit about blowing up the Westerosi Vatican is important. This isn't just about killing a High Septon. It's about essentially wiping out one of the pillars of Westerosi society. First of all, killing clearly unpopular priests/popes is not the same as killing a clearly popular leader (the High Sparrow). The second sort of homicide would cause a great deal more hatred, especially when it is combined with the murder of one of the most popular queens the Seven Kingdoms has ever had. More importantly, killing a pope, or a High Septon, is not the same as ending the papacy, or eliminating the office of High Septon. The second thing is more than strongly indicated in Season 7. We have offhand comments along the line that there is no more High Septon and that the Sept of Baelor no longer has any windows (Sam's comment to Gilly). The attitude is "Ho hum. No more papacy, no more Vatican. Big deal, let's move on." This is not even marginally realistic. 

 

Olenna was supposed to be very smart. She surely would have heard the phrase "Call the banners." Are we to believe that she didn't do this? Are we to believe that she did this and then didn't notice that no one came? Did neither she nor the apparently incompetent Targaryen intelligence apparatus learn that Tarly & co went to consult with the Lannisters? The idea of some kind of lightning strike from Casterly Rock just doesn't work. There is no reason to believe that the entire Tyrell army was destroyed by Cersei's wildfire explosion. You don't need 45,000 men to protect against a bunch of guys with clubs. Even if Tyrell losses at KL were severe, the Queen of Thorns would have learned of this, and she would have called in some of her bannermen  to help defend her castle. Finally, Jaime, Lord Tarly, and Bron all came from KL, all the way across the continent. What did the soldiers in the supposed lightning strike do? Did they march down the coast and just wait around for a while? Did they wait around at the rock and then time their arrival perfectly with the arrival of the leaders from KL? 

And it isn't just a matter of the Lannisters taking all the food. I repeat a point I made earlier. The concept of a bunch of drones following the commands of Borg Queen Brotherfucker is totally out of place in this universe. The lords and men of the Reach would not allow the despoiling of their own lands in order to provision the capital. They certainly would not participate in the despoiling. 

 

6 hours ago, Apoplexy said:

Everybody suspects it was cersei. But there isn't enough evidence. She can claim it was an accident.

This is not a criminal trial in an American court room. There is no presumption of innocence. Everyone suspects it was Cersei. I'm sure that a lot of people (perhaps most people) are sure it was her. This would just increase the hatred toward her. It is clear that she (and other Lannisters). have contempt for commoners. This contempt would almost certainly be returned. All of this, once again, would give multiple opportunities to guys like Tyrion and Varys, except that the show runners have arranged an incredible loss of intelligence in these characters. 

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The problem with all these Ingenious explanations is that none are canon. All I see are more creative people than D&D twisting what we have seen to try and make sense of it all. 

 

For instance. Cersei already shunned the iron bank. Forget slaves (though it's a valid argument). The woman made it clear she would not pay and she had no respect for them. They have hired faceless men to kill for less. They even went as far as backing Stannis because he'd promised to pay. Yet now they are negotiating payment again? 

 

No. Just no. That guy would have slit  her throat and then revealed himself as a faceless man. You don't earn a reputation like the Iron bank has by giving second and third chances. 

Edited by MrJay

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1 hour ago, MrJay said:

The problem with all these Ingenious explanations is that none are canon. All I see are more creative people than D&D twisting what we have seen to try and make sense of it all. 

 

For instance. Cersei already shunned the iron bank. Forget slaves (though it's a valid argument). The woman made it clear she would not pay and she had no respect for them. They have hired faceless men to kill for less. They even went as far as backing Stannis because he'd promised to pay. Yet now they are negotiating payment again? 

 

No. Just no. That guy would have slit  her throat and then revealed himself as a faceless man. You don't earn a reputation like the Iron bank has by giving second and third chances. 

Slaves are not, or should not be, a valid argument. The Iron Bank is a Braavosi institution.

Braavos is famously anti-slavery - they've gone to war to force other Free Cities to give up slavery.

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4 hours ago, Kytheros said:

Slaves are not, or should not be, a valid argument. The Iron Bank is a Braavosi institution.

Braavos is famously anti-slavery - they've gone to war to force other Free Cities to give up slavery.

What I was saying is that them being anti slavery is a valid (and huge) argument. What I hear most people say is that the bank cares only of money. So long as slaves bring in money so the masters can make the bank money, then all is good. 

It's not good. We all know the core of slavery is money. It's free labor. So what makes anyone think that a bank built by former slaves would suddenly be cool with the thing they ran from is beyond me. 

 

My argument was that even if it were true and suddenly former slaves descendents became best buds with slavers, that still leaves the problem of Cersei originally deciding to stiff the iron bank, and upset them to the point where they financed Stannis. Not go mention they have a society of assassins that they have no issue using go kill those who don't pay. 

And to top it all off. They sent a rep to chit chat with cersei like nothing happened before she even had the money to pay them in her possession. 

People have mistaken "tolerate" with support. That guy they sent clearly supported slavery. 

The Iron bank may as well be renamed to the Golden plot device. 

Edited by MrJay

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1 hour ago, MrJay said:

What I was saying is that them being anti slavery is a valid (and huge) argument. What I hear most people say is that the bank cares only of money. So long as slaves bring in money so the masters can make the bank money, then all is good. 

It's not good. We all know the core of slavery is money. It's free labor. So what makes anyone think that a bank built by former slaves would suddenly be cool with the thing they ran from is beyond me. 

 

My argument was that even if it were true and suddenly former slaves descendents became best buds with slavers, that still leaves the problem of Cersei originally deciding to stiff the iron bank, and upset them to the point where they financed Stannis. Not go mention they have a society of assassins that they have no issue using go kill those who don't pay. 

And to top it all off. They sent a rep to chit chat with cersei like nothing happened before she even had the money to pay them in her possession. 

People have mistaken "tolerate" with support. That guy they sent clearly supported slavery. 

The Iron bank may as well be renamed to the Golden plot device. 

Institutions can easily become corrupted over time. Happens all the time especially if there is a profit motive. Just because the Iron Bank started anti slavery does not mean it has to remain as such particularly if there were large profits to be made in the slave trade over the generations. 

Also your confusing cannons. In the show Cersei never stiffs the Iron Bank. She specifically learns about the importance of the Iron Bank back in season 4 from tywin in order to set up this plot line. The IB invested in Stannis more as a hedge given the Lannister succession was messed up and everything seemed to depend on tywin. 

I still think the Iron Bank will not be there for her though either because the gold will not arrive or because they will realize that they need Dany and Jon to win since if the dead win there are no more profits to be made. Cersei is looking at gold very myopically and it would make sense if that miopic view and failure to take into account the bigger picture bites her.

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12 hours ago, The Golden Wolf said:

Still the point stands that there is no reason for the other houses of the Reach to allow the lannister army to just come in and take the harvest and raid the larders. take the gold from highgarden sure...but take all the food as well??? now we gotta fight. 

Lets see what cities located in Reach, between Highgarden and King's Landing, alongside Roseroad: Goldengrove, Cider Hall, Ashford, Longtable, Bitterbridge, Grassy Vale, Tumbleton. And between Highgarden and Oldtown - Horn Hill and Brightwater Keep.

Spoiler

Horn Hill is Tarly's house.

Brightwater Keep was given to Garlan Tyrell, second son of Mace Tyrell. In A Feast for Crowns he gathered men from across the Reach to fight against Euron Greyjoy. I assume that by Season 7 he and his people are already killed by Euron.

Goldengrove, House Rowan. Lord Mathis Rowan supported Renly Baratheon during the War of Five Kings. Then joined with the Tyrells and the Lannisters at the Battle of the Blackwater. In A Feast for Crows Mathis marches with Lord Mace Tyrell to lay siege to Storm's End. In A Dance with Dragons he remains in command of a token force at Storm's End when Mace returns to King's Landing.

Goldengrove fought for Renly, then for Lannisters, then went to Storm's End, thus they can't aid Olenna. They are either already exhausted by all those battles or too busy.

Cider Hall, House Fossoway. Both branches of House Fossoway turn to Stannis Baratheon after Renly's death. During the Battle of the Blackwater, Lothor Brune cuts his way through half a hundred Fossoway men-at-arms to capture Ser Jon from the green apple branch and slay Ser Bryan and Ser Edwyd of the red apple branch, earning the name Lothor Apple-Eater. In A Feast for Crows Brienne of Tarth spots the red apple badge of House Fossoway among those that have been collected from the dead after the Battle of Duskendale. Cider Hall lost its Lords, and their troops greatly diminished during all those battles. 

House Ashford so far haven't participated in any battles, in books or in show. Though during Robert's Rebellion they defeated Robert in Battle of Ashford. I assume that after Robert became King, he paid them back for his defeat. Probably Ashford house is not in any state to fight against anyone.

Longtable, House Merryweather.  Lady Taena of Myr, the wife of Lord Orton Merryweather, is Cersei's confidant, adviser and lover. Cersei named Orton Master of Laws, and later made him Hand of the King. She even offered to foster Taena and Orton's son. After Cersei's imprisonment by the Faith of the Seven, Taena and Orton flee King's Landing and return to Longtable. 

Longtable supports Lannisters.

Bitterbridge, House Caswell. They supported Renly. After Renly's death Lord Randyll Tarly returns to Bitterbridge, seizes Renly's stores, and puts many of the foot to death, especially those of House Florent.

(Tywin Lannister took away Florent's castle Brightwater Keep and gave it away to Tyrells. Ser Colin Florent remains castellan at Brightwater Keep in defiance of its new lord, Garlan Tyrell, although Ser Erren remains a prisoner at Highgarden. Garlan went to fought against Euron. And Lannisters probably freed Ser Erren. Thus Brightwater Keep will support Lannisters, and fight against Tyrells).

Lord Lorent Caswell shuts himself within the walls of Bitterbridge.

It's unlikely that after his previous loss to Randyll Tarly, he will want to fight against him again. Especially after Tyrells first fought for Renly, but then sided with Lannisters, and their bannerman Tarly was killing Bitterbridge's people that didn't wanted to go to Lannister's side. I gues they think that Olenna got what she deserved. They won't help her.  

Grassy Vale, House Meadows. Surrendered Storm's End to Stannis. Probably went with Stannis to Winterfell, and died there with him.

Tumbleton, House Footly. They fought for Ranly. Weren't mentioned anywhere after that. So either they switched to Stannis' side, and died with him near Winterfell, or they withdrawn out of all future battles.

Horn Hill and Brightwater Keep are against Tyrells. Thus Tyrells are cut off from their greatest supporters Hightowers and Redwynes.

And out of 7 cities between Highgarden and King's Landing - Longtable supports Lannisters; 

Ashford, Bitterbridge and Tumbleton has withdrawn from all battles;

lords and troops of Goldengrove, Cider Hall and Grassy Vale were either defeated by Stannis, or supported him and died for him (either way by Season 7 those three are also out of the picture). 

8 hours ago, The Golden Wolf said:

The Reach has literally only participated in the Battle on the Blackwater and in the mopping up campaign in the Riverlands and therefore would actually be the Third most rested forces in all of Westeros.

After Robert's death The Reach for years was in a state of civil war.

They divided on those who supported Lannisters, those who supported Renly, or those who supported Stannis.

Even Tyrells in the beginning were supporting Renly, but then switched to Lannisters side. I suppose that even though Tyrells sided with Lannisters, it doesn't mean that all their bannermen did so too. Some of them went with Tyrells. But some of them joined those that previously supported Stannis. And some of them decided that they don't want to participate anymore in this circus, so they are for themselves now.

So The Reach is not the Third most rested forces in all of Westeros. They are devided and exhausted by civil controversities as much as North was divided by conflict between Starks, Greyjoys, Boltons, Karstarks and Umbers, or Riverlands by conflict between Tullys and Freys.

8 hours ago, The Golden Wolf said:

Also you call your banners before your opponent makes their move if you believe you have to fight. The Reach should have been up in arms to fight Cersie and the Lannisters or at the very least protect what is theirs but instead we get Randyll capitulating like a little bitch and betraying Highgarden because of some words said by Jaime Lannister.

Olenna made too many mistakes. Went against Crown and sided with Renly, then sided with Lannisters, then sided with Targaryens. And finally her people had enough. Not only Randyll, all Reach had enough of Olenna's temper tantrums. SHE switched sides AGAIN, and Randyll haven't capitulated, he just didn't went THIS TIME after Olenna, instead he stayed where he was - at Lannister's side.

People don't give a damn about what happened with Olenna's family, because how many people, how many families of Reach died because of her wayward tendencies? enough is enough.

Also they need to prepare for long winter, and if they will go to another of Olenna's campaigns, their children will die from hunger. So instead of joining Olenna and her new best friend Barbarian Queen, they went home to gather harvest.

What Jaime took is lesser of what they would have lost if they sided with Olenna.

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@Megorova

I completely disagree. For one simple reason: The plan is cool for a Lannister - Tyrell war. But it completely ignores the stategic situation. What this plan basicly does is shifting troops in the Reach. The only thing where Dany's armys even are planed in is in Casterly Rock. The plan does not even prevent Dany's troops from mirroring the movement of Lannister-Tarly. So at the least there is an army coming down over the road. And that is not even Dany's main army. Given her army and attack vector she simply has to besiege or ignore KL and fully assault the Reach from the other side.

Which traps great general tarly between 2 armies from the north, the sea, the dornish mountains and that is even before Dorne has moved an army. 

 

The only reason anything works because Dany is an idiot and basicly needs her to do .... nothing. And even that is not enough to get completely wiped out in the end .... against the very predictable main army which ignored KL. And only plot armor protects the gold movement because if Dany had any brain she would destroy the bridges over the Blackwater with her dragons as an opening move against KL.  

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12 hours ago, The Golden Wolf said:

there are no Tyrell soldiers anywhere near the sept of Baelor when it explodes. we have views of the sept from all sides both interior and exterior during the trial and there are no Tyrell soldiers to be seen anywhere. So no the majority of the Tyrell Soldiers were not wiped out in the Sept explosion. 

Mace brought his troops to King's Landing, shortly prior Margaery's walk of shame. After it was aborted, Olenna went back to Highgarden, but Mace and his troop stayed where they were - at KL. Do you really think that he sent his troops away, before his son's trial? I'm 100% sure that they all stayed with him in KL, just in case if trial will go bad.

Maybe they haven't died in explosion, which doesn't mean that Cersei and her new Black Guards just let them go. Cersei killed them all, Red Wedding style. Either at Great Sepr, or wherever they were during or after trial. Tyrells are Cersei's enemyes, she won't let their troops freely go out of city gates and back to Highgarden.

You doubt that she killed them all, then and there?

12 hours ago, The Golden Wolf said:

Also Arys Oakheart never went to Dorne in the show. In fact he was in Kingslanding and watching over Tommen with his whereabouts unconfirmed as of Tommen's death. was he in the sept or was he just shoved aside? no one knows exactly. also what show are you watching were there has been fighting in Dorne? No one has attacked Dorne. 

Not in the show. He was killed in books. GRRM killed him, so it's unlikely that D&D for some reason will keep him alive. Also even if in GOT he did survived after explosion, then safely went back to Old Oak, he was killed there by Lannisters on their way from Casterly Rock to Highgarden.

12 hours ago, The Golden Wolf said:

and no their writing is nowhere near being complex for people to be confused. What is on the screen should leave no questions but instead it leaves more and more questions

I had no questions after watching that episode, everything was crystal clear, and all made sense. While watching GOT, viewers shouldn't judge what happens on screen, based solely on information from books. When D&D create GOT, they take into consideration information provided in books, but they don't treat all of it as a canon.

What happened with Olenna and Highgarden in show, had a premise created there beforehand, that eventually led to that outcome. When the same will happen in books, GRRM will explain everything in more details. But even without that, it's obvious that Olenna's people were fed up with constantly switching sides, also she was caught off guard by sudden ambush from Casterly Rock. 

Can't imagine what kind of questions could have emerged after watching what happened on screen, especially more and more questions :huh:

Edited by Megorova

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Aerys II was deposed and killed for doing less than Cersei. Tyrion pointed this out to Joffrey back in season 2. And Aerys had the advantage of being the legitimate ruler.

Cersei seems to be the beneficiary of the Ramsay Bolton Effect, whereby an evil psychopath can rule almost without opposition for as long as the Plot wills it.

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19 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

An accident that there was a mass of explosives that went off at Cerseis trial when she and her son were not in attendance but all of her enemies were? That's more than suspicious.

The Lannisters have no claim on the Iron Throne. Cersei can't rule in her own right as a widow or queen mother once her husband and children are dead. 

 

Youre really understating all of the stuff Cersei has done to the Nobles and people of Westeros. Only last season a popular movement had her imprisoned and publicly shamed in the streets. Her own uncle was party to her trial and presumably the Lannister nobility.

What exactly has Dany done to be so despised by the Nobility that they would side with Cersei over her? Yes she has troops from Essos. Big deal. That Dothraki horde hasn't done any looting, raping, sacking and has barely been involved. They also haven't got the memo that Dany banned slavery; so they're idiots to buy one. So you are overstating people's reasons to hate Dany on the show and worse assuming we are meant to sympathise with team Cersei.

 

I mean the show has us scoff at the notion of the people overthrowing Cersei for Dany only a season after the Faith essentially did that. 

 

Lets assume the Nobles are rational people.

1) As observed by Jamie, they cannot beat Dany and her dragons if she actually starts trying to kill them. Why fight a war you can't win?

2) They are risking their land, property and title to keep Cersei on the Iron Throne. If they side with Dany, they lose nothing. The only reason Dany wants to kill them is because they don't bend the knee as shown by Jon and all her other allies. Why risk all for the sake of Cersei? Wouldn't you just leave the sinking ship?

3) They are going to make big life and death decisions to oppose Dany based on third hand information given by Cersei? Jon when he met Dany seemed pretty convinced she was a good person so why would all the other Lords be making such bad and ill informed decisions? Rational people seek out information before committing to a side.

 

So why would a petty lord in the Westerlands with a few dozen knights, who has heard rumours that Cersei murdered Kevin and the Nobles and knows there is this Targaryen Queen with dragons coming decide "I must defend good Queen Cersei to the end!!!"? The Lannister and Reach armies staying loyal to Cersei is entirely dependent on them being stupid.

You are overstating what Cersei did in comparison to her actual support vs the outsider threat Dany is. 

-yes Cersei was imprisoned by a radical religious movement that as far as we know was never embraced by the religious leaders in OldTown who gained muscle and flexed it against a weak king who refused to shut them down. Cersei killed all of them. That power opposing Cersei doesn't exist anymore. The lowborn aren't powerful enough to take on Cersei, the Lannister's weren't happy that Cersei was imprisoned aside from Kevan and he died too. Cersei and Jamir are the heirs to Tywin and were controlling the Lannister troops at KL more than Kevan was. As seen by Jamie taking Riverrum with Lannister troops that season. So Kevan apparently wasn't the head of the Lannister House. 

- you are now sweeping aside a very big deal. There is no rational society that would take kindly to Dany invading their lands. She's the daughter of an ousted king who is bringing foreign savages known to be vicious killers to their country along with 3 weapons of mass destruction. There is no rational way to sweep that under the rug. That would be like if Hitler's long lost grand daughter came to Germany bringing nuclear arms and Vietnam guerilla fighters claiming she was going to take back her rightful position as the head of state. Doesn't matter how unpopular the current German Chamcellor is in that scenario. Dany is an outsider of a dishonored like bringing weapons and foreign invaders to the land. No state is going to side with her. 

1. Jamie and some troops saw the dragons. Jamie voiced his concerns to Cersei. Cersei thinks she can outmaneuver them and also thinks she can kill dragons since one is dead. Not everyone fought the dragons that day. Regardless you don't go against your leader because the aside has strong weapons.

2. No you wouldn't abandoned a sinking ship. So far in this war, Dany lost most contests except the final one, and she only flexed muscle there. In any way their is s risk of picking sides. Why didn't the nobility of Westeros all immediately support Aegon? Why did Dorne keep fighting a lost cause. Some people aren't going to want to support the daughter of a crazy king who is bringing savages to their land. People still go to war with the U.S. even though they know they could wipe them off the map if they wanted.

3. Why every country in the world makes life and death decisions based off third hand info given by their leaders 

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