Jump to content

Lyanna's 'kidnap' part of Rickard's Southern Ambition?


devilish

Recommended Posts

We all know the drill. 


a-    The relationship between Aerys and Tywin deteriorate
b-    Aerys ends up a hostage at Duskendale
c-    Tywin leads the army to Duskendale with the plan to storm the city
d-    Some oppose such plan. Tywin responds to them by endorsing Rhaegar as a better king to Aerys
e-    Selmy goes full Rambo and rescues Aerys
f-    After being restored as king, Aerys ruins Tywin’s chance to see his daughter to Rhaegar and the crown prince chance of marrying into a powerful ally whose capable to lead an army against him (ie the Lannisters)
g-    Aerys shows hostility towards Rhaegar’s children while he grows obsessed about Viserys. 
h-    A luxurious tournament is held in Harrenhal that eclipse the one held by Tywin for Visery’s birthday
i-    Varys warns Aerys that this tournament is a façade to a potential coup against him
j-    The mad king gatecrashes Harrenhal by going there in person.
k-    Rhaegar meets Lyanna for the first time at the tourney of Harrenhal 
l-    he crowns her queen of beauty
m-    Brandon gets pissed off but she laughs off at the incident
n-    After some time Lyanna is kidnapped by Rhaegar 
o-    A furious Brandon go to KL to challenge the crown prince to a duel
p-    Aerys have him arrested and orders Rickard to come to KL to answer for his son’s crime
q-    Both are brutally executed
r-    Aerys orders Jon Arryn to execute Ned and Robert
s-    The whole charade begins.


At first value the whole timeline makes sense. 


-    Tywin’s and Aerys relationship deteriorate. 
-    At Duskendale Tywin drags Rhaegar (whether intentionally or not we’ll never know) into his feud. 
-    Aerys defies logic by coming out of this alive. He tries to weaken the crown prince whom he feels he (ie Rhaegar) tried to usurp his throne by having him killed. 
-    Rhaegar gambles everything on Harrenhal, a plan that backfired spectacularly


But then the entire sequence of events starts becoming sketchy


-    The kidnap doesn’t make sense. At that point Rhaegar had enough enemies on his own not to add the North (and possibly the Riverlands to it). 
-    Rickard’s reaction doesn’t make sense either. His daughter is kidnapped by the crown prince, his son is arrested for treason by his father and yet…Rickard sees fit to go to KL without a proper army at his back. He doesn’t even bother calling Ned to Winterfell. 
-    Aerys reaction doesn’t make sense either. Brandon might have crossed the line here by going to KL and challenge the crown prince to a duel. But does that translate in the extermination of most of the Stark family? (Rickard, Brandon and Ned).  Worst things had happened before with houses actually raising armies against the ruling family. They all got away with far less than that. After all Aerys treacherous son had just kidnapped his first cousin’s fiancée. The Starks were for Aerys potential allies in this whole charade. Rhaegar’s mess up + Brandon’s arrest provided the mad king with the idea pretext to send Rhaegar to the wall + an army to do that dirty work.
I’ve been thinking about Aerys overreaction and Rickard’s under reaction for quite some time. Then a slight detail popped out and which has the potential of changing everything. Lyanna’s second meeting with Rhaegar 10 leagues away from Harrenhal happened a year later.


That opens a whole can of worms


-    How did Rhaegar and Lyanna manage to keep contact throughout that period of time?
-    How was a 15 year old lady able to slip from her father’s home, travel for days and miles without getting spotted only to reach Harrenhal where she conveniently found Rhaegar waiting for her?


The former question might partly answer the latter. The only effective way of long distance communication AWOIF has is by ravens. The Maesters take care of that, and at the time the Maester at Wintefell was Walys. Walys was accused by Barbrey of being the man who orchestrated Rickard’s Southern ambitions. Could it be the case that Lyanna was able to go South, without being detected and without any trackers being sent to get her back was…..because Rickard wanted this thing to happen.

So here is what I think


-    Rickard arrange a marriage between Robert and Lyanna
-    Rickard accepts Rhaegar’s invitation to Harrenhal. A new world to come is at the doors with plenty of opportunities to those wise enough to take them. 
-    Rhaegar makes it pretty obvious that he likes Lyanna. Rickard notices that a potentially better union could be made up between the two
-    Lyanna spills the beans to her father. She’s unhappy with her marriage with Robert
-    Rickard is between a rock and a hard place. On one hand he doesn’t want to force Lyanna into a marriage she doesn’t want and is salivating at the prospect of having his own daughter close to the future king of Westeros. On the other hand Rickard can’t break his promise to Robert (we all know thanks to Robb that this is a no no). 
-    Therefore plan B is set to motion. Lyanna ‘escapes’ with Rhaegar something Rickard has no control upon. The girl will lay low for a couple of months with Rhaegar with Rickard not causing too much havoc about it. Once pregnant she will return to the Riverlands confessing that everything was consensual and that she’s now pregnant with Rhaegar’s child. That would force Robert (and not Rickard) to call off the wedding. Please note that consensual sex among adult is not a crime even among nobility. Aegon the unworthy had plenty of paramours of noble descent + LF was able to come out of Riverrun alive despite having sex with Lysa Tully.
-    Once Rhaegar is able to free Elia and her children from KL he would call the banners against his father. The North, the Riverlands, Dorne and possibly the Vale would join the cause. Jon Arryn would keep Robert out of the loop, arresting him if he ever finds out what was going on. With Robert hostage, the Stormlands would add to the list of neutrals (which include the Westerlands and the IR). That means that the war would be between the 4 regions I mentioned and the Reach + the Crownlands. Surely the former must be considered favourites to win. 

Considering Rickard’s sons inability to comprehend the grey areas of diplomacy, the old wolf thought better not to involve his two sons in such plot. That proved costly as Brandon genuinely believed that the rumours of Lyanna’s kidnap were true and against all common sense went to KL to confront Rhaegar. Even at that point Rickard didn’t thought that he had anything to worry about. Surely the crown prince would step in to make sure that his future son’s uncle won’t die especially since the Starks were a centerpiece of Rhaegar’s ascend to power. 

Unfortunately the old wolf underestimated Aerys Intel on the matter. Brandon might have been convincing but Aerys refused to believe that Lyanna was able to teleport from Winterfell to Harrenhal with no military escort only to end up kidnapped by his treacherous son. It was evident that the Starks were cooking a plan with Rhaegar which explains why Aerys went so tough against them.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No, Rickard was set on usurping the Targaryens.  He would never consent to an alliance with the dragons because he wanted to put Robert on the throne from the start.  A rebellion was going to take place as soon as Rickard had all of his alliances bonded with marriage. 

If there is anything complex about this matter, I would venture to say it came from the side of the dragons.  That Rhaegar meant to seduce Lyanna to prevent the marriage alliance between the Starks and the Baratheons. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Noble Lothar Frey said:

No, Rickard was set on usurping the Targaryens.  He would never consent to an alliance with the dragons because he wanted to put Robert on the throne from the start.  A rebellion was going to take place as soon as Rickard had all of his alliances bonded with marriage. 

If there is anything complex about this matter, I would venture to say it came from the side of the dragons.  That Rhaegar meant to seduce Lyanna to prevent the marriage alliance between the Starks and the Baratheons. 

If that was the case then he would called the banners the exact moment Lyanna was kidnapped. However he didn't.

He refrained from calling the banners despite his son got arrested on the accusations of treason. Instead he went to KL to sort things up even though the Targs had his daughter kidnapped and his son arrested. FFS the man didn't even bother to recall Ned from the Vale which means that the Stark dynasty rested mostly in foreign hands. Why was he so confident of making it out of that place alive? 

Considering that Aerys had solid ground on accusing Brandon of treason + there's no way Rickard could win a trial by combat against that KG, the only answer is that Rickard was banking on an extremely powerful and influential man in the Targ ranks to bail him out. Which makes you wonder who could that man be? The Starks aren't renowned for their friends in the South and no one would dare challenging the king's judgement. Unless of course, the person in question happens to be the crown prince.

Also there is no chance Lyanna could vanish from Winterfell, travel across the entire north + the Riverlands and reach Harrenhal only to find Rhaegar waiting without her dad knowing what was going on. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, devilish said:

If that was the case then he would called the banners the exact moment Lyanna was kidnapped. However he didn't.

He did not because Rhaegar effectively broke the alliance at that point, whether Lyanna ran off by choice or not.  The marriage was needed to seal the alliance.  Aerys also had Brandon in custody, thus preventing the bonding with the Tullys via Catelyn. 

I am actually not going to be surprised if Lyanna's abduction was planned.  It accomplished a lot.  That Brandon rode into the red keep threatening the royal family put him in Aerys' hands was a blessing. 

The Starks alone could not hope to win against the king. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You make a good case towards explaining things, devilish! Robert Baratheon really was the loose cannon of the scenario; impetuous, violent, possessive, and not too bright. We can give a pass to Aerys, sort of, because he was "mad" - paranoid and delusional, and increasingly violent and vindictive. Well, that's what the whole coup (or election by a council of lords) was trying to remedy. Sadly, Rhaegar had put himself out of action during the crucial time period with his apparent infatuation with Lyanna.

(Side note: can we really blame the woman, for the way men reacted to her? Should we?)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Noble Lothar Frey said:

He did not because Rhaegar effectively broke the alliance at that point, whether Lyanna ran off by choice or not.  The marriage was needed to seal the alliance.  Aerys also had Brandon in custody, thus preventing the bonding with the Tullys via Catelyn. 

I am actually not going to be surprised if Lyanna's abduction was planned.  It accomplished a lot.  That Brandon rode into the red keep threatening the royal family put him in Aerys' hands was a blessing. 

The Starks alone could not hope to win against the king. 

I don’t think that Lyanna was kidnapped. But let’s toy with that idea for a moment. What was a 15 year old Lady of Winterfell doing so close to Harrenhal? How did the crown prince knew that Lyanna was so close to the Harrenhal to ‘kidnap’ her and why was the girl riding there without military escort? If there was indeed a military escort how come no one got hurt or even killed? Sure the crown prince was a decent swordsman and the sword of the morning was way better than most swordsmen in the North but surely Lyanna’s military escort would try to defend their lady. 


So everything points that Lyanna went to Rhaegar out of her own will. That might explain why she was close to Harrenhal at a time when he was there and why no one got hurt/killed. However it doesn’t solve most questions


a-    How the hell could a 15 year old teleport herself from Winterfell to Harrenhal without her father knowing?
b-    Why no one tried or was able to track her down?
c-    How could a 15 year old co-ordinate such a plan with someone who lives at the other side of the world without the Warden of the North knowing what was going on?


However lets ignore all of that. Lets assume that this 15 year old could evade all trackers in the North and the Riverlands and was so elusive to take all the Lords from Winterfell to Harrenhal as fools only to end up safely inside Rhaegar’s arms. How come Rickard didn’t call the banners after he learnt the truth? If the North-Riverlands-Vale-Stormlands were planning a great revolt then what better excuse to do it then this? Rickard and Robert could send ravens to Aerys demanding that his boy would release his daughter/gf. If he refuse to do that then the Starks/Baratheons would have the cassus beli needed to rebel, dragging all Lords of good faith with them. Most lords are knights, sworn to protect the innocent. What more innocent than a 15 year old girl who was stripped from her loving father against her will to serve as the crown prince sex object?

Even if Lyanna had to come out debating that its not the case no one would believe it. The poor thing would be just too ‘traumatised’ from such ordeal to be thinking straight, Instead Rickard opted to remain quiet in Winterfell only to ride to KL with a token force after his own son was accused of a very serious crime. Meanwhile the emotionally driven and madly in love Robert remaining in the Vale sipping wine with his best mate Ned. That’s not the reaction that a father and a bf would have towards their daughter/gf kidnapper isn’t it? 


Such under reaction contrasts greatly with Aery’s overreaction. Sure Brandon did a stupid thing but why would anyone try to massacre his entire clan? Rebellions were quite common in Westeros. When that occurred, houses would be forced to bend the knee and probably stripped off of a lordship or two as punishment. Yet Aerys wanted most Stark heads and that simply because Brandon challenged the crown prince for a fight. Or was there more to it? 

By rebelling to Aerys, Robert would have become an usurper and probably a kinslayer for a role he didn’t even wanted. That's too much of an ask for the man whose hobby was to drink and whore.  On the other hand Rhaegar was groomed for command and made it quite obvious to Jamie that he was planning to usurp the throne. You can’t really blame the man. His mother was being sexually abused and his life + that of his wife and his children were in danger. The burden of being an usurper and a kinslayer was quite a small price to pay for that.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, zandru said:

You make a good case towards explaining things, devilish! Robert Baratheon really was the loose cannon of the scenario; impetuous, violent, possessive, and not too bright. We can give a pass to Aerys, sort of, because he was "mad" - paranoid and delusional, and increasingly violent and vindictive. Well, that's what the whole coup (or election by a council of lords) was trying to remedy. Sadly, Rhaegar had put himself out of action during the crucial time period with his apparent infatuation with Lyanna.

(Side note: can we really blame the woman, for the way men reacted to her? Should we?)

The only way Robert could end up on the IT was

a- To go against centuries of Baratheon loyalty to the Targs. A loyalty which the Baratheon were well compensated for (LP of the stormlands, the regular Targ princess in marriage etc)

b- to lead a fiercely loyal Targ region whose surrounded by Targ loyalists to rebellion. The risks of ending up dead are staggeringly high

c- to become an usurper and probably a kinslayer (Aerys was Robert's cousin)

That's a big price to pay especially for a role Robert never really wanted and was certainly not suited for.

Robert rebelled only when he had no choice (ie Aerys asked for his head). He was many things but certainly not a conspirator. 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rickard didn't take an army to King's Landing with him because he presumably feared the Mad King's reaction. He probably hoped that by responding to the summons as a loyal servant he could soothe the paranoid anger of Aerys. Had he gone with an army, Brandon would likely have been dead before Rickard got anywhere near the capital.

Aerys' reaction is difficult, because, well, the man was mad. So while he might have had rational reactions to events and rational reasons for his actions, it's certainly not a given. His reaction to the threat of losing his throne was to burn the capital down, so...

The other problem is that Rickard loses more than he gains from this marriage, unless he was prepared to pull off some dirty stuff behind the scenes (which he might have been). With Rhaegar, his grandchildren would be princes and princesses, yes, but they wouldn't be King or control lands or titles of their own (save that that the King gave to them). With Robert, his grandchildren would be the rulers of Storm's End and the Stormlands. That would be 3 regions with a Stark (blood wise) in charge. That seems like a bigger prize, although it's believable that Rickard may have cared more about the prestige of the Targaryen marriage or his daughter's happiness.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, devilish said:

I don’t think that Lyanna was kidnapped. But let’s toy with that idea for a moment. What was a 15 year old Lady of Winterfell doing so close to Harrenhal? How did the crown prince knew that Lyanna was so close to the Harrenhal to ‘kidnap’ her and why was the girl riding there without military escort? If there was indeed a military escort how come no one got hurt or even killed? Sure the crown prince was a decent swordsman and the sword of the morning was way better than most swordsmen in the North but surely Lyanna’s military escort would try to defend their lady. 


So everything points that Lyanna went to Rhaegar out of her own will. That might explain why she was close to Harrenhal at a time when he was there and why no one got hurt/killed. However it doesn’t solve most questions


a-    How the hell could a 15 year old teleport herself from Winterfell to Harrenhal without her father knowing?
b-    Why no one tried or was able to track her down?
c-    How could a 15 year old co-ordinate such a plan with someone who lives at the other side of the world without the Warden of the North knowing what was going on?

I think she probably remained at Harrenhal after the tournament as a guest of the Whents.  She would want or need to get some experience and knowledge of Southern life, given that she was betrothed to a Southern lord, and the Whents are a prominent family and loyal vassals to the Tullys, whose family her brother was preparing to marry into.

I suspect there was some sort of contact between her and Rhaegar, probably through an intermediary.  Ashara Dayne is a possibility.  She was Rhaegar's wife's attendant, and apparently sweet on Ned, so her communicating between the two is not out of the question.  If he was motivated by prophecy, as some (including myself) think, Lyanna was almost certainly aware of that fact, and may have been intrigued by the thought of being the mother of the world's savior and/or infatuated with Rhaegar.

She was probably traveling to Riverrun for her brother's wedding when she was taken.  She would not have been alone (a woman traveling alone would be too tempting a target), but probably had only a small escort to deter local troublemakers, not well-armed princes' parties.  Most likely, Lyanna would have told them to surrender,, hoping that 1) they would pass on word to her family, and 2) she could reason with Rhaegar, or go with him, if it was preplanned.

Rickard probably assumed that this was a series of misunderstandings that could be dealt with by his presence, and wasn't counting on the Mad King being as mad as he was.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...