(spoilers?) Reread the Arianne Martell chapters, I have to conclude that Doran is grooming her to rule Dorne once he passes on

[Frey Kings]

On 7/12/2017 at 10:01 PM, Ser Loras The Gay said:

Yeah, but if he did? But we simply don't know where his pieces are? 

 

On 7/12/2017 at 10:54 PM, StraightFromAsshai said:

Yep I bet it was all apart of  his master scheme  

There is no Dornish Master Plan. The theory of Doran I like is the illusion of having a master plan. That's his chess. Let it appear he has something up his sleeve. Let it appear that he has secret agents acting on his behalf. Doran is Dorne, and Dorne is Doran.  The thought of a pending Martell retaliation is better than retaliating at all. Because he if he had any plans, the opportunity has passed. Dorne will ultimately leave the 7k and rule itself once more. He knew of Cersei's plan of Tyrstane, He knew of Arianne and foiled that. Good Chance he knows Varys'. 

Throughout its history, many tried to conquer Dorne, and they all failed. They can try again.

 

On 7/12/2017 at 10:59 PM, Ser Loras The Gay said:

That's a nice way of seeing all this and never crossed my mind he could be fooling everyone like that haha.

 

On 7/13/2017 at 2:08 AM, StraightFromAsshai said:

Doran knew Dany wouldn't accept, the pact  wasn't even binding, the idea was laughable...He wanted to show his fellow Dornishmen that backing another Targ for IT was a lost cause. If he wanted a match, he would've put in some effort to convince her otherwise. 

 

On 7/13/2017 at 8:49 AM, Ser Loras The Gay said:

Exactly. He wanted the plan to fail that's no other way around it. The problem is, he could've said to Quentyn and trust his son, if he simply have said "son, I need you more than ever, we can't have another war and Daenerys is comingo to Westeros to conquer everything. We need to send her a message that we don't want war with her, but at the same time we can't be seen doing this, otherwise the Lannister are going to invade us. I need you going to her encounter and send her this pact, she won't accept, but she'll know without us having any binding to her that we don't want war against her, don't tell anyone or Dorne is doomed, I love you my son and I know you are capable of that". I doubt someone as willing as Quentyn going to Essos for his father would screw up things and tell the real reason to go there, and with this new information he wouldn't try to steal one of the dragons.

 

 

I don't have the exact book quotes handy, but Arianne has dragon fever. But soon begins to probe about everything once she meets up with the Golden Company in the Stormlands. Then reflects how much Dorne has to lose if they fail. And its not a winnable situation, going so far as either labeling Blackfryes and Bittersteel as bastards. Doran is indeed very angry about what happened to his family during the rebellion and Oberyn. Prince Doran also knew it was a unwinnable war even with a alliance with the Golden Company and the time to strike to all those who did his family and countrymen has past. Look at how the North/Riverlands ended up.

 

Maybe he just wanted his kids to realize this before he passes?

 

Quote

“It is an easy thing for a prince to call the spears, but in the end the children pay the price. For their sake, the wise prince will wage no war without good cause, nor any war he cannot hope to win.” (ADWD, The Watcher)

 

 

Disclaimer: Maybe he has something up his sleeve in the next book but until then, the best strategic minds, know the cost/benefit of a all-out-war and know the consequences if he fails.

[elder brother jonothor dar]

I'm a little lost everybody thinks Doran has no plan and is sitting in his hands.

But his master plan is to make everyone or just his kids? Think he has a master plan but in fact the master plan is to make people think he has one when infact there is no plan?

 

[Frey Kings]

52 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

I'm a little lost everybody thinks Doran has no plan and is sitting in his hands.

But his master plan is to make everyone or just his kids? Think he has a master plan but in fact the master plan is to make people think he has one when infact there is no plan?

 

Yes, Art of War. That's how he got Myrcella, and a seat on a council.

 

Know your strength and Know your weaknesses

 

He's grooming his kids for roles of leadership, Arianne wants some kind of conflict, Quentyn probably doesn't but they need to see the world for what it is and come to the same conclusion Doran has.

 

Let his enemies continue to think Doran is up to something....

 

 

[elder brother jonothor dar]

Does anyone think he is up to anything?

So you are saying by calling his banners and moving them to defend Dorne and poised to march, but not rushing to take a side he got Myrcella and a seat in the council with a large slice of good fortune.

Or are you saying the Lannisters are his enemys and thought he was plotting against them so gave up a hostage?  Might help me get my head round this if you clarify which enemys specifically or generally you are referring to.

The bit about teaching his kids the reality of Dornes position within the 7k; and the importance for Dorne to project an image of strength I get.

[SirArthur]

12 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Does anyone think he is up to anything?

Yes. There is something else ... the marriage pact with Viserys. The pact that makes no sense even if he just plusters himself. And the fact that Robert B. never had a problem with Viserys but Daenerys is the big issue even before she has dragons. 

[Frey Kings]

20 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Does anyone think he is up to anything?

So you are saying by calling his banners and moving them to defend Dorne and poised to march, but not rushing to take a side he got Myrcella and a seat in the council with a large slice of good fortune.

Or are you saying the Lannisters are his enemys and thought he was plotting against them so gave up a hostage?  Might help me get my head round this if you clarify which enemys specifically or generally you are referring to.

The bit about teaching his kids the reality of Dornes position within the 7k; and the importance for Dorne to project an image of strength I get.

1) There is no Dornish Master Plan. 

2) The theory of Doran I like is the illusion of having a master plan. That's his chess.

3) Let it appear he has something up his sleeve. Let it appear that he has secret agents acting on his behalf.

4) Doran is Dorne, and Dorne is Doran.  

5) The thought of a pending Martell retaliation is better than retaliating at all.

6) Because if he had any plans, the opportunity has LONGGGGGGGGGG passed.

7) Dorne will ultimately most likely leave the 7k and rule itself once more.

8) He knew of Cersei's plan of Tyrstane, He knew of Arianne and foiled that. Good Chance he knows Varys'. What others does he know?

9) Throughout its history, many tried to conquer Dorne, and they all failed. They can try again. and die in Dorne.

 

What do you think Doran is doing with Dorne?

 

[Frey Kings]

31 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

Yes. There is something else ... the marriage pact with Viserys. The pact that makes no sense even if he just plusters himself. And the fact that Robert B. never had a problem with Viserys but Daenerys is the big issue even before she has dragons. 

That marriage pact alliance was over when Viserys died

His sent his boy with the marriage pact alliance to Dany knowing she wouldn't accept, it wasn't even binding, the idea was laughable...He wanted to show his fellow Dornishmen that backing another Targ for IT was a lost cause. If he wanted a match, he would've put in some effort to convince her otherwise. 

[SirArthur]

8 minutes ago, StraightFromAsshai said:

That marriage pact alliance was over when Viserys died

You do not understand ... forget Dany in the marriage pact. Erase all Dany memory from your brain. Seriously. Forget Dany. She is not part of the pact. empty your thoughts and concentrate:

Explain me how the original pact would work and why Doran would sign it. 

[Frey Kings]

It is rather like this: Doran had, as it was called earlier goals that he wishes to accomplish. Yet, he needs ideal conditions. To hide from everyone that he is having said goals, he essentially does nothing and tries to keep all doors open to jump on the best chance he gets. Sadly, or if you favor him, gladly, however, Doran has a very passive and cautious personality. he does not want good conditions, he wants the best conditions humaly possible. So he waits, and waits, and waits...

 

Now explain to me what would be the next step be for Doran now? You're in his shoes now

 

11 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

You do not understand ... forget Dany in the marriage pact. Erase all Dany memory from your brain. Seriously. Forget Dany. She is not part of the pact. empty yout thoughts and concentrate:

Explain me how the original pact would work and why Doran would sign it. 

 

[HexMachina]

1 hour ago, SirArthur said:

Yes. There is something else ... the marriage pact with Viserys. The pact that makes no sense even if he just plusters himself. And the fact that Robert B. never had a problem with Viserys0 but Daenerys is the big issue even before she has dragons.

Because of who she had just married. Yes, it was unlikely that the Dothraki would actually cross the narrow sea, but it is perfectly reasonable (and, as it turns out, correct) for Robert to assume it is the exiled Targaryens trying to make alliances to win back the Throne. 

Whereas, to Robert's best knowledge, no such arrangement was made for Viserys and a potential suitor. 

[SirArthur]

48 minutes ago, StraightFromAsshai said:

It is rather like this: Doran had, as it was called earlier goals that he wishes to accomplish. Yet, he needs ideal conditions.

His only goal can be to have a better claim to the throne than through the marriage of 187 with Daenerys Targaryen (daughter of Aegon IV). But the question remains:

What ideal conditions are there ? Viserys has no army and Dorne can't seriously take on the 7K by itself. And it can't marriage an alliance because that just went to Viserys. The only reason I can come up with is that he wants to pinpoint Viserys down and prevent him from a marriage. 

36 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

Because of who she had just married. [...]

Whereas, to Robert's best knowledge, no such arrangement was made for Viserys and a potential suitor. 

Really ? Viserys is a crowned claimant. Robert would kill a bandit leader if the leader would call himself king. Just ... forget dany for the argument over the marriage pact. Pretend she is not there. 

[HexMachina]

3 hours ago, SirArthur said:

His only goal can be to have a better claim to the throne than through the marriage of 187 with Daenerys Targaryen (daughter of Aegon IV). But the question remains:

What ideal conditions are there ? Viserys has no army and Dorne can't seriously take on the 7K by itself. And it can't marriage an alliance because that just went to Viserys. The only reason I can come up with is that he wants to pinpoint Viserys down and prevent him from a marriage. 

Really ? Viserys is a crowned claimant. Robert would kill a bandit leader if the leader would call himself king. Just ... forget dany for the argument over the marriage pact. Pretend she is not there. 

Well you asked why Robert would be concerned by Dany but not Viserys in your previous post, so i couldnt really ignore Dany's marriage in my response

I think Robert did want to kill both Viserys and Dany, but Jon Arryn restrained him and simply had him keep an eye on them instead (the wisdom of this can and has been debated many times on the forum). Viserys was a claimant yes, but an impoverished one without any backing, and therefore a negligible threat. Robert's concern over Daenerys only spiked after she married Drogo and had a potential army at her disposal

[Ser Loras The Gay]

I still believe that either Doran has the most epic masterplan we had ever seen or he's just fooling everyone in his family and people who know him in Westeros. Too much of his alledged plan doesn't make any sense when you analyse all the pieces together. The marriage pact can't work because that's no indication of consent from someone who was the responsible for dany legally (her relatives) the signature from the kingsguard who died isn't worth shit and Dorne (as far as we know) didn't send any help to Viserys nor Dany. So, unless he's playing 14d chess he's just a very good liar and is trying to keep his part of the realm safe from war.

[Daenerys Targaryen's slave]

I believe that Doran is a psychopath - and doesn't care about Elia Martell.

 

I think he sent Doran to Essos knowing that it would likely lead to his death (Slavers, Greyscale, Sellswords, etc).

 

And he is grooming Trystane to take over.

[Ser Loras The Gay]

45 minutes ago, Daenerys Targaryen's slave said:

I believe that Doran is a psychopath - and doesn't care about Elia Martell.

 

I think he sent Doran to Essos knowing that it would likely lead to his death (Slavers, Greyscale, Sellswords, etc).

 

And he is grooming Trystane to take over.

Send doran? You mean Quentyn? And why the fuck he wants his son killed?

 

[Daenerys Targaryen's slave]

7 minutes ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

Send doran? You mean Quentyn? And why the fuck he wants his son killed?

 

 

Quentyn- Correct.

 

I think Doran wants Trystane as his heir. Arianne is not stupid, yet certainly no cut out to rule an entire Kingdom, she does not comport herself like a princess, and would easily be taken advantage of by other houses. She has been influenced far too much by Oberyn and his bastards.

 

Quentyn is far too timid and weak to effectively rule a Kingdom, and has been in Yronwoods hands for nearly his entire life.

 

Again, I don't think it's plausible to believe Quentyn would survive his journey, let alone succeed. I truly believe Doran wanted him dead, and I believe the same for Arianne.

[Ser Loras The Gay]

19 minutes ago, Daenerys Targaryen's slave said:

 

Quentyn- Correct.

 

I think Doran wants Trystane as his heir. Arianne is not stupid, yet certainly no cut out to rule an entire Kingdom, she does not comport herself like a princess, and would easily be taken advantage of by other houses. She has been influenced far too much by Oberyn and his bastards.

 

Quentyn is far too timid and weak to effectively rule a Kingdom, and has been in Yronwoods hands for nearly his entire life.

 

Again, I don't think it's plausible to believe Quentyn would survive his journey, let alone succeed. I truly believe Doran wanted him dead, and I believe the same for Arianne.

But just to get his last son the heir status? He could simply send both his kids to the wall for that matter (i'm joking). But seriously, even if he don't trust his kids to rule the kingdom after his death he could simply teach them better. I mean in just a few chapters we see Arianne becoming a lot more mature and inteligent. He could simply put his time and effort and bring his family together, I think that is easier than to make a ellaborate plan to kill off all his kids besides Trystanne.

[Daenerys Targaryen's slave]

9 minutes ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

But just to get his last son the heir status? He could simply send both his kids to the wall for that matter (i'm joking). But seriously, even if he don't trust his kids to rule the kingdom after his death he could simply teach them better. I mean in just a few chapters we see Arianne becoming a lot more mature and inteligent. He could simply put his time and effort and bring his family together, I think that is easier than to make a ellaborate plan to kill off all his kids besides Trystanne.

 

I think this was more of a recent development (for several years). Marianne is 24 yearsold, yet still comports herself in a manner unbefitting of a princess, and shows no real political saavy, and has bad judgment of people.

 

Quentyn is timid, weak, and more Yronwood than Martell.

 

I think somewhere along the line, Doran realized that he is old and sickly, with little years left. The Kingdom is tearing itself apart, and his first two children are so incompetent that they would lead his family to ruin.

So he sends Quentyn on a journey halfway across the world, in a savage land full of slavers, grey scale, thieves, and sellswords - with a handful of men. Let's be honest, without plot armor, he does not survive long enough to even make it to Mereen.

 

I don't think Quentyn was supposed to live. And I fully believe that Arianne will share a similar fate.

 

 

 

[ChuckPunch]

On 9/22/2017 at 8:58 PM, Daenerys Targaryen's slave said:

 

Quentyn- Correct.

 

I think Doran wants Trystane as his heir. Arianne is not stupid, yet certainly no cut out to rule an entire Kingdom, she does not comport herself like a princess, and would easily be taken advantage of by other houses. She has been influenced far too much by Oberyn and his bastards.

 

Quentyn is far too timid and weak to effectively rule a Kingdom, and has been in Yronwoods hands for nearly his entire life.

 

Again, I don't think it's plausible to believe Quentyn would survive his journey, let alone succeed. I truly believe Doran wanted him dead, and I believe the same for Arianne.

He can just name Trystane his heir. No murder or plotting necessary. 

[SirArthur]

45 minutes ago, ChuckPunch said:

He can just name Trystane his heir. No murder or plotting necessary. 

 

How ? Based on what law ? On base of the same law that sees Myrcella before Tommen ? Can you just make up heirs now ? In that case Stannis does not even have a case. Stannis the clown.