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Was Tywin an idiot or a reckless gambler?


Tyrion1991

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In the first book, Tywin responds to Tyrions kidnap by sending out the Mountain to brutally raid the Riverlands and this is recognised by Ned Stark who demands that Tywin come to court to answer for Gregors crimes. Instead of just handing a quite despised Knight over, he instead chooses to invade the Riverlands after destroying a Stormland force led by Beric Dondarrion. Now, this played out very, very well for him in the books.

But, that kind of depends on a lot of very circumstantial things. Namely, if Robert Baratheon hadn't died. Perhaps the Boar didn't get him, or he recovered from his wounds. Cersei, that wondrous idiot, was insanely lucky for this to actually work. The stars aligned here. If that hadn't happened. Well, Rob would have taken Neds side and you would have had the Starks, Stormlands and Riverlands siding against Tywin. Which was actually the most likely outcome. So when Tywin invaded, he must have known that he risked fighting all three of these factions and once. Which, since he had so much trouble just fighting Rob Stark means that he actually was making a colossal error of judgement to go into that war thinking he could win. Its only because fate intervened and shattered the Stark/Baratheon alliance that he ever stood a chance. By attacking Beric and invading the Stormlands he had already gone too far to back down. 

Later on in the war we then have the two front war with the Starks and Baratheons. Now, firstly Rob Stark could have chosen to side with Stannis, he did seem to be leaning towards this until Greatfart Umbar decided to go all "King of the North but we'll go south of Moat Calin and lose" and ruined everything. The North declaring independence was pretty unprecedented. Tywin could not have forseen this. He probably would have assumed some sort of Stark-Baratheon coalition and for Rob to make common cause with one of RB brothers. Instead fate played into his hands. 

Then, you have his march to Kings Landing. Now fortunately for him, Rob Stark let his army withdraw from the Riverlands as they were in the Westerlands and the Greyjoys had (again inexplicably) attacked the North. Really, Tywin should have known that a forced march would leave the army hugely exposed and that Rob could have fallen on and destroyed his host if he had been focused on him. With the information Tywin had, this was a colossal gamble rather than a well thought out decision.

Finally we have the Reach and the magical teleporting everyone to arrive precisely when they are needed at exactly the same time without anybody being aware of over 100,000 men moving. Now, when this war started. Tywin, had absolutely no reason to assume that the Tyrells and all the power of the Reach would join him. They were close to Renly and had been pro Targ in the war. They were no friends of Tywin. So again, the stars aligned for Tywin.

I mean, a lot of his victories seem less the result of any cunning or cleverness, like what his son Tyrion does and a lot more like he is just a reckless gambler who is winning every roll of the dice and having inexplicably good fortune that he could never have predicted in his wildest and wettest dreams. 

 

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Tywin didn't invade the Stormlands, or even attack a Stormlands force. And he wasn't trying to start a war.

Beric Dondarrion was not leading a Stormlands army. He was leading a small force of 100 men in the King's name. They weren't raised from the banners of the Stormlands, but from the personal retainers of himself, Ned, Thoros (I'm not sure where he gets 20 men), a Crownlands lord, and a Stormland knight. They were joined by two of the Riverlands lords, with a handful of their own men, who had come demanding justice.

And they never fought in the Stormlands. They believed they'd found Gregor at Mummer's Ford, but instead ran into a Lannister force they hadn't known about, and were then cut off from Gregor attacking from behind. Mummer's Ford is a Red Fork crossing in the Riverlands, 

And, as we learned later, Tywin's plan was not to start a war with the Stormlands, much less with the crown. He was expecting Ned to lead that force into that ambush. After which Ned would no longer be Hand, being dead, and Tywin could make a deal with the King or the new Hand to force the Starks to return Tyrion in exchange for bringing the Mountain to heel.

The only reason Tywin's plan didn't work was that he didn't expect Jaime's impetuous attack on the Stark men in King's Landing. That was a huge blunder by Jaime. Not only did it obviously push the Lannisters much closer to being at war, it also meant Ned couldn't lead the force into the Riverlands and had to send Beric instead, so he survived. Given that, if if weren't for Robert's mortal injury and Ned's coup attempt, Tywin would have been hosed very badly. He may well have been forced to choose between a disastrous war against the crown, or having Jaime executed and himself severely chastised.

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I've been immersed in the BWB for the past week and I have to agree with @falcotron completely.   The ploy with the Riverlands was intended to draw Ned into confrontation resulting in his death.     The only things I would add to this nice breakdown of events are that Tywin underestimated Robb Stark and Jamie's visceral reactions to Tyrion's capture.   It was a good plan if you respect diabolical assassinations.   Let's not forget that Tywin owned King Bob.   Robert would not have been able to stand up to his father-in-law any more than Renly could have convinced his brother to take Margaery Tyrell to wife.   One does not besmirch the Lannisters. 

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1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

The only things I would add to this nice breakdown of events are that Tywin underestimated Robb Stark and Jamie's visceral reactions to Tyrion's capture.

Good point. I mentioned how he underestimated Jaime's overreaction, but I didn't notice how close the parallel is in Tywin underestimating both his own son's overreaction and Ned's son's.

And that actually makes me give him a little less credit. It's one thing to be a little blind to the flaws of his own son, but Aerys's oldest friend ought to have learned to expect some rash behavior when you push the Starks and dad isn't around to restrain the eldest son…

But still, that's only a little ding against him. He could have recovered his plan anyway were it not for the fact that Stannis had just gotten the proof he needed and Cersei finally bumped off Robert at almost the exact same time as the Bran-Tyrion fiasco.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

It's a massive gamble I have looked into the time line and what he expected to achieve is crazy, concidering at one point he had Ned and Sansa in his power and the north marched on him anyway.

But what he expected to achieve was to kill or capture Ned and have the whole thing over with in a few days, without going to war.

It's only because of a very unlikely set of coincidences that it turned into a war. Once it did, he had no choice but to improvise, at which point he was forced to make risky choices because the only other alternatives meant certain defeat.

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I think it's important to keep in mind that Tywin believed his own PR.    He believed the world feared and respected him.   It's dubious he ever really considered full scale war at the inception of his plan.   I think the move on Tyrion was the excuse Tywin looked for to flex his muscle with Robert.   I'm sure he was very unhappy not to have been named Hand...twice...under the man he made king.   In the end Tywin was as much a pawn in Little Finger's machinations as anyone else.   

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7 hours ago, falcotron said:

The only reason Tywin's plan didn't work was that he didn't expect Jaime's impetuous attack on the Stark men in King's Landing. That was a huge blunder by Jaime. Not only did it obviously push the Lannisters much closer to being at war, it also meant Ned couldn't lead the force into the Riverlands and had to send Beric instead, so he survived. Given that, if if weren't for Robert's mortal injury and Ned's coup attempt, Tywin would have been hosed very badly. He may well have been forced to choose between a disastrous war against the crown, or having Jaime executed and himself severely chastised.

I have two problems with this.

1) If I recall correctly, Ned resigned his Handship. Then had the altercation with Jamie. Then became the Hand, again, and sent Beric after the Mountain and threatened Tywin with attainder. That is neither here or there. :) Would Ned, personally, have sortied with only 100 of the King's men? To me, sending Beric with a 100 men is a "measured" response to Tywin's "measured" response of having a small force harry the Riverlands after Catelyn's taking of Tyrion. Ned only sending 100 men with Beric implies that he didn't consider it necessary to go all out against the Lannisters, despite his attainder threat. Then Jamie's blunder is a rather meaningless, emotional response to Tyrion's taking, and not plot changing.

2) Communications. GRRM's words and the show, play free and loose with the Raven telegraph. Are the ravens strictly point to point? Can a raven go somewhere that is not pre-programmed? Who knows, though the point to point thing seems most likely. Whatever. How is Tywin masterminding the earliest stages of the nascent war? To my mind, nothing is in-canon in regards to Lannister decision making. Obviously the big news of Tyrion being taken is broadcast, and we know Tywin responded with the harrying of Catelyn's Riverlands, and then a big escalation afterward. But still... 

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16 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

In the first book, Tywin responds to Tyrions kidnap by sending out the Mountain to brutally raid the Riverlands and this is recognised by Ned Stark who demands that Tywin come to court to answer for Gregors crimes. Instead of just handing a quite despised Knight over, he instead chooses to invade the Riverlands after destroying a Stormland force led by Beric Dondarrion. Now, this played out very, very well for him in the books.

I think it's important to remember that he instructed the Mountain and his men to fly no banners and essentially disguise themselves as common thieves. Rather than idiocy, I think it's an example of Tywin's intelligence. By sending the Mountain, he left the River Lords in no doubt that he was behind it BUT still gave himself plausible deniability if they responded in kind, which is what they wanted to do, and would've done, if Hoster hadn't convinced them to go to Robert.

Let's face it, the actual evidence is that peasants thought that one of the Men brutally sacking their villages was really really big. Even Cersei could rip that apart, much less Tywin.

Quote

But, that kind of depends on a lot of very circumstantial things. Namely, if Robert Baratheon hadn't died. Perhaps the Boar didn't get him, or he recovered from his wounds. Cersei, that wondrous idiot, was insanely lucky for this to actually work. The stars aligned here. If that hadn't happened. Well, Rob would have taken Neds side and you would have had the Starks, Stormlands and Riverlands siding against Tywin. Which was actually the most likely outcome. So when Tywin invaded, he must have known that he risked fighting all three of these factions and once. Which, since he had so much trouble just fighting Rob Stark means that he actually was making a colossal error of judgement to go into that war thinking he could win. Its only because fate intervened and shattered the Stark/Baratheon alliance that he ever stood a chance. By attacking Beric and invading the Stormlands he had already gone too far to back down. 

I think you are drastically over-estimating Robert here. Not that he doesn't love Ned but he just wants peace and quiet. Would he have taken Ned's side or would he have went "Ah. Knock it off the lot of you".

I mean, Jaime attacked Ned in the street, seriously injured him and killed all his men. What did Robert do about it? He ordered Ned to do what Jaime said. When Cersei demanded Lady be killed, and Ned begged him to spare her, who did he end up siding with? Cersei - Because he didn't want her nagging at him,

It should also be pointed out that the Starks DID start this. From Robert's point of view, Catelyn captured Tyrion for no reason and without authority, if the Riverlords should then attack the West, as revenge for attacks that weren't committed by "Lannister soldiers" then Robert kind of has to side with Tywin.

I will say that Tywin did get very lucky that Ned snubbed Loras Tyrell though. Attacking Loras under the King's Banner would've brought the Tyrells into the war much sooner and not on Tywin's side.

Of course, all this is excluding Robert finding out about the Twincest. That would've been a game changer.

9 hours ago, falcotron said:

But what he expected to achieve was to kill or capture Ned and have the whole thing over with in a few days, without going to war.

It's only because of a very unlikely set of coincidences that it turned into a war. Once it did, he had no choice but to improvise, at which point he was forced to make risky choices because the only other alternatives meant certain defeat.

Yeah. I thought it was made clear that his plan was to lure Ned into the trap, capture him and exchange him for Tyrion. All out war would've been avoided but he'd have kept more pride than if Robert had simply ordered for Tyrion to be released.

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11 hours ago, falcotron said:

Good point. I mentioned how he underestimated Jaime's overreaction, but I didn't notice how close the parallel is in Tywin underestimating both his own son's overreaction and Ned's son's.

And that actually makes me give him a little less credit. It's one thing to be a little blind to the flaws of his own son, but Aerys's oldest friend ought to have learned to expect some rash behavior when you push the Starks and dad isn't around to restrain the eldest son

But still, that's only a little ding against him. He could have recovered his plan anyway were it not for the fact that Stannis had just gotten the proof he needed and Cersei finally bumped off Robert at almost the exact same time as the Bran-Tyrion fiasco.

 

 

In Tywin's defense, Brandon was 20, Robb was 15 (I think). That's the difference between a man and a boy. Obviously he looks foolish in hindsight, but history will show Tywin had good reason to think Robb would not be a fiercesome opponent. Youv'e got to take some gambles in the game of thrones.

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9 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

Tywin Lannister is a predictable idiot, no one else would have overreacted like he did if their son was arrested and Littlefinger knew this which was why he told Cat the dagger belonged to Tyrion. 

Tyrion was not arrested as Cat is not a Lord, she has no legal authority to make arrests. The King of Westeros makes it more than clear that this was an abduction. His son was abducted.

And of course you say no one else would go to war over an arrest? Robb called his banners and went to war when his father was arrested. 

 

14 hours ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

You have forgot the vale, he was expecting the vale to side with the north too.

No, he was actually not expecting the Vale or the North to act. Tyrion takes some glee pointing out to his father when word of the North moving South comes to them. 

 

21 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

In the first book, Tywin responds to Tyrions kidnap by sending out the Mountain to brutally raid the Riverlands and this is recognised by Ned Stark who demands that Tywin come to court to answer for Gregors crimes.

No, you are confusing the show with the books.  Ned calls for Gregor's arrest in the books, the show invents him also demanding Tywin to come to court to answer his crimes. 

21 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

Instead of just handing a quite despised Knight over, he instead chooses to invade the Riverlands after destroying a Stormland force led by Beric Dondarrion. Now, this played out very, very well for him in the books.

A Stormland force? It was mostly a royal one

"Lord Beric," he called out. "Thoros of Myr. Ser Gladden. Lord Lothar." The men named stepped forward one by one. "Each of you is to assemble twenty men, to bring my word to Gregor's keep. Twenty of my own guards shall go with you. Lord Beric Dondarrion, you shall have the command, as befits your rank."

Why would Tywin simply hand over one of his own vassals? Tywin instead sends letters demanding Ned put an end to this

"Dark wings, dark words," Ned said grimly. "What of it?"
"Lord Tywin is greatly wroth about the men you sent after Ser Gregor Clegane," the maester confided. "I feared he would be. You will recall, I said as much in council."

Tywin is quite aware that there is no  real evidence of Gregor's involvement and that Robert is unlikely to take a peasant's word over a nobles. 

And of course officially it was the RIverland army who invaded first. Edmure sends a 4k army to the Golden Tooth. It gives Tywin an excuse to attack. 

 

21 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

But, that kind of depends on a lot of very circumstantial things. Namely, if Robert Baratheon hadn't died. Perhaps the Boar didn't get him, or he recovered from his wounds. Cersei, that wondrous idiot, was insanely lucky for this to actually work. The stars aligned here. If that hadn't happened. Well, Rob would have taken Neds side

He would?

  • When Ned argued over Jaime Lannister being a Kingsguard whose side did Robert take?
  • When Ned argued over Jaime being made the Warden of the East whose side did Robert take?
  • When Cersei wanted a direwolf put down whose side did Robert take?
  • When Cat arrested Tyrion and Cersei demanded the relase of her brother whose side did Robert take?
  • When Jaime put Ned in a coma and killed two of his men whose side did Robert take?

Every time it comes to choosing between his inlaws and his friend he chose the Lannisters. In fact when did Ned ever get his way with Robert?

  • Objects to the expense of the Hand's Tourney, is ignored
  • Objects to the assassination of Dany, is ignored. 

It is pretty clear that Robert would not have taken Ned's side in this matter, what is likely is that he would have demanded all sides make peace. 

21 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

 

Then, you have his march to Kings Landing. Now fortunately for him, Rob Stark let his army withdraw from the Riverlands as they were in the Westerlands and the Greyjoys had (again inexplicably) attacked the North.

It is hardly inexplicable.  The North has no Navy, settlements (in general) better ddefended and its army thousands of miles away. The North was the easier option, Balon is more confident of being successful in the North than he would be in the West

21 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

Finally we have the Reach and the magical teleporting everyone to arrive precisely when they are needed at exactly the same time without anybody being aware of over 100,000 men moving.

Who was unaware?

21 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

Now, when this war started. Tywin, had absolutely no reason to assume that the Tyrells and all the power of the Reach would join him.

Of course he did. Joffrey is the recognised legal heir, them rebelling is unexpected

 

 

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2 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

No, he was actually not expecting the Vale or the North to act. Tyrion takes some glee pointing out to his father when word of the North moving South comes to them

“Leaving you unopposed?” Tyrion said. “Not wholly,” Ser Kevan said. “The Mallisters still hold Seagard and Walder Frey is marshaling his levies at the Twins.” “No matter,” Lord Tywin said. “Frey only takes the field when the scent of victory is in the air, and all he smells now is ruin. And Jason Mallister lacks the strength to fight alone. Once Jaime takes Riverrun, they will both be quick enough to bend the knee. Unless the Starks and the Arryns come forth to oppose us, this war is good as won.” Tyrion 7 Got

At the least he knew it was a possibility 

A green boy, Tyrion remembered, more like to be brave than wise. He would have laughed, if he hadn't hurt so much. Tyrion 8 Got

If this is what you mean Tywin is making fun of Robbs military experience, he is expecting the boy to rush to battle and be soundly beaten.

In the question of Tywins intention of invading the Riverlands

"And that may be precisely what Lord Tywin wants, Ned thought to himself, to bleed off strength from Riverrun, goad the boy into scattering his swords. His wife’s brother was young, and more gallant than wise. He would try to hold every inch of his soil, to defend every man, woman, and child who named him lord, and Tywin Lannister was shrewd enough to know that" Ned Got

“By then the fighting had passed by us. The Mountain’s men were only the van of Lord Tywin’s host. They crossed the Red Fork in strength and swept up into the riverlands, burning everything in their path. We were so few that all we could do was harry their rear, but we told each other that we’d join up with King Robert when he marched west to crush Lord Tywin’s rebellion. Only then we heard that Robert was dead, and Lord Eddard as well, and Cersei Lannister’s whelp had ascended the Iron Throne". Arya 3 Swords

Tywin had called his banners he was not content to trade Ned for Tyrion 

“Kind of you to go to war for me,” he said as he climbed into a chair and helped himself to a cup of his father’s ale. “By my lights, it was you who started this,” Lord Tywin replied. “Your brother Jaime would never have meekly submitted to capture at the hands of a woman.” “That’s one way we differ, Jaime and I. He’s taller as well, you may have noticed.” His father ignored the sally. “The honor of our House was at stake. I had no choice but to ride. No man sheds Lannister blood with impunity.” Tyrion 7 Got

A lesson was needed and the Riverlands had to pay if Ned had been captured or not.

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23 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

In the first book, Tywin responds to Tyrions kidnap by sending out the Mountain to brutally raid the Riverlands and this is recognised by Ned Stark who demands that Tywin come to court to answer for Gregors crimes. Instead of just handing a quite despised Knight over, he instead chooses to invade the Riverlands after destroying a Stormland force led by Beric Dondarrion. Now, this played out very, very well for him in the books.

Thing is that Gregor is acting on Tywin's orders and Tywin isn't about to sell out one of his most potent tools to someone who will hate Tywin no matter what Tywin does or does not do. To start with giving Eddard Gregor will change nothing, Tywin will just have lost the Mountain and look like he fears Eddard and his bannermen will lose faith in that Tywin can come out ontop of this one. Furthermore Beric wasn't leading a Stormlander force but a force of the king's men on the Hand's orders. So it was more attacking the Hand, and possibly by extension the king, that Tywin did and not the Stormlands.

23 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

But, that kind of depends on a lot of very circumstantial things. Namely, if Robert Baratheon hadn't died. Perhaps the Boar didn't get him, or he recovered from his wounds. Cersei, that wondrous idiot, was insanely lucky for this to actually work. The stars aligned here. If that hadn't happened. Well, Rob would have taken Neds side and you would have had the Starks, Stormlands and Riverlands siding against Tywin. Which was actually the most likely outcome. So when Tywin invaded, he must have known that he risked fighting all three of these factions and once. Which, since he had so much trouble just fighting Rob Stark means that he actually was making a colossal error of judgement to go into that war thinking he could win. Its only because fate intervened and shattered the Stark/Baratheon alliance that he ever stood a chance. By attacking Beric and invading the Stormlands he had already gone too far to back down. 

Not really. To start with Renly didn't for all we know give a shit about Beric or those men. He never brings it up as a relevant point so a conflict with the Stormlands was on entirely different grounds.

To that there are two things I think that you miss. For the first thing what Tywin can expect from the future and then the relation between the Lannisters and King Robert.

In regards to what Tywin can see, everything points to that Eddard Stark is using his position as Hand of the KIng to move against the Lannisters at court with a goal to deny Tywin's grandson his father's throne. If there's contact between Casterly Rock and King's Landing then Tywin will know that there's been tensions and clashes between the Lannisters and Starks already on the road back to King's Landing. Tywin will then find that Tyrion is arrested by Catelyn Stark, on Eddard's orders as Eddard told Jaime, using Riverland soldiers to take Tyrion to her sister in the Vale. This all looks like Eddard is enacting a plan against the House of Lannister rather than coincidences and Tywin respons with violence to what is an attack on his House.

In regards to killing Robert I'm not sure that a living Robert would have doomed the Lannisters. King Robert has at every time turned away from a conflict with the Lannisters. From Joffrey spat with Arya to Lannister guardsmen attacking Eddard on the streets of King's Landing, Robert looked the other way, and in the last issue went hunting instead. So much for the Stark-Baratheon alliance.

Also you are very correct in that Tywin underestimated Robb, but then again, after Tywin's triumphan march through the Riverlands its really not that strange to think that a green boy will not be a major opponent.

23 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

Later on in the war we then have the two front war with the Starks and Baratheons. Now, firstly Rob Stark could have chosen to side with Stannis, he did seem to be leaning towards this until Greatfart Umbar decided to go all "King of the North but we'll go south of Moat Calin and lose" and ruined everything. The North declaring independence was pretty unprecedented. Tywin could not have forseen this. He probably would have assumed some sort of Stark-Baratheon coalition and for Rob to make common cause with one of RB brothers. Instead fate played into his hands. 

In a way yes. The problem is of course that like most separatists they are all to eager to gobble up other people's territory and hence brough the Riverlands, ruled by Robb's maternal relatives and in little over a decade the North's allies in three wars, with them to ensure that those guys wouldn't be left out to dry in the western wind.

23 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

Then, you have his march to Kings Landing. Now fortunately for him, Rob Stark let his army withdraw from the Riverlands as they were in the Westerlands and the Greyjoys had (again inexplicably) attacked the North. Really, Tywin should have known that a forced march would leave the army hugely exposed and that Rob could have fallen on and destroyed his host if he had been focused on him. With the information Tywin had, this was a colossal gamble rather than a well thought out decision.

The march to King's Landing is actually rather predictable in that it was one of the main reason he was a Harrenhall to start with. That Robb made some strateic blunders is really not a fault of Tywin nor is the fact that Balon Greyjoy wanted to win himself and not serve as kingmaker to someone else. And the North is very much an easier target than the West, which no king sitting on the Iron Throne would be willing to surrender to the Ironmen.

And there's little reason to think that Robb would fall on Tywin's army. Robb took most of his cavalry with him into the West and infantry are most often a bit to slow to fall on the enemy, in particular when Tywin has as much horse as he's got. There's just no reason to fear that entrenched infantry will catch up to a force march and fall on the moving troops.

23 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

Finally we have the Reach and the magical teleporting everyone to arrive precisely when they are needed at exactly the same time without anybody being aware of over 100,000 men moving. Now, when this war started. Tywin, had absolutely no reason to assume that the Tyrells and all the power of the Reach would join him. They were close to Renly and had been pro Targ in the war. They were no friends of Tywin. So again, the stars aligned for Tywin.

They didn't magically teleport anywhere but rather used some sense to move themselves. And the Tyrells have not been particular loyal to anyone. They changed swiftly enough to support Robert against the Greyjoys and they sought to place their own Baratheon on the throne rather than seat a new Targaryen king. So I doubt they cared much for Targaryen kids and its rather evident that they felt nothing particular ill will against Tywin.

23 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

I mean, a lot of his victories seem less the result of any cunning or cleverness, like what his son Tyrion does and a lot more like he is just a reckless gambler who is winning every roll of the dice and having inexplicably good fortune that he could never have predicted in his wildest and wettest dreams. 

 

Not really. Tywin's victories comes from expert planning and excellent logistics and organization. Tywin isn't a flashy general nor a great tactician but he's definielty the greatest strategic mind in his time and when the battle is fought, he's already set himself up to win so there's no need for dramatic scenography and his hair trailing in the wind, so to speak.

11 hours ago, Pikachu101 said:

Tywin Lannister is a predictable idiot, no one else would have overreacted like he did if their son was arrested and Littlefinger knew this which was why he told Cat the dagger belonged to Tyrion. 

Robb Stark reacted like Tywin did when he heard his father was arrested for a crime he committed. Same with the Laughing Storm over a broken marriage promise. There are plenty of people who react just like Tywin.

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7 hours ago, UnFit Finlay said:

I think you are drastically over-estimating Robert here. Not that he doesn't love Ned but he just wants peace and quiet. Would he have taken Ned's side or would he have went "Ah. Knock it off the lot of you".

Yes. And that's what Tywin was counting on.

If Tywin had captured Ned, Robert would have yelled "Enough! Tywin, release Ned and reign in the Mountain or whoever's impersonating him by any means necessary or else. Robb, make your mother release Tyrion and go home to Winterfell or else." And of course that's exactly the result Tywin wanted.

If Tywin had killed Ned instead, Robert would have been more angry, but the result wouldn't have been much different. He might have insisted the Mountain be handed over for a trial, but even if so, that's an acceptable loss.

It's hard to imagine a situation where Robert would have declared Tywin a traitor and declared war on the Lannisters.

7 hours ago, UnFit Finlay said:

I will say that Tywin did get very lucky that Ned snubbed Loras Tyrell though. Attacking Loras under the King's Banner would've brought the Tyrells into the war much sooner and not on Tywin's side.

Yeah, that's a good point, and I forgot that. If it had happened, the Tyrells and the Starks together demanding justice would have been a much bigger problem than just the Starks.

6 hours ago, mankytoes said:

In Tywin's defense, Brandon was 20, Robb was 15 (I think). That's the difference between a man and a boy. Obviously he looks foolish in hindsight, but history will show Tywin had good reason to think Robb would not be a fiercesome opponent. Youv'e got to take some gambles in the game of thrones.

Oh, I think Tywin was reasonable to underestimate Robb's ability as a general. I'm just saying that he may not have been as reasonable in underestimating Robb's rashness.

He clearly wasn't expecting Robb to call his banners and march to an undeclared but full-blown war against the West (as you can see from his discussion with Tyrion). And if that hadn't happened, Jaime screwing up Tywin's plan wouldn't have mattered that much. And maybe he should have considered the possibility that both young men would be rash.

But still, that's as far as any man could reasonably be expected to go. Planning for what if Jaime attacks Ned before I can capture him, and what if Robb invades, sure. Planning for what if both of those things, and also what if Stannis gets proof that my grandchildren are bastards even though I didn't even know that myself, and also what if Cersei happens to kill Robert the same day as that but he lives long enough to make Ned the Hand and regent for the unspecified heir… To anticipate all of that would require him to be both psychic and paranoid.

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well the greyjoys invading the north when they had an opportunity was spot on for them actually. Or at least raiding the heck out of it. Rob should have seen that coming.

I think that tywin got saved by rob being king of the north instead of joining with stannis. If he had joined stannis then tywin would have been f**ked. Also if rob had gone back north rather then try to hold the riverlands as well he would have probably held it.the north is a pain in the a** to invade.

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3 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

Thing is that Gregor is acting on Tywin's orders and Tywin isn't about to sell out one of his most potent tools to someone who will hate Tywin no matter what Tywin does or does not do. To start with giving Eddard Gregor will change nothing, Tywin will just have lost the Mountain and look like he fears Eddard and his bannermen will lose faith in that Tywin can come out ontop of this one. Furthermore Beric wasn't leading a Stormlander force but a force of the king's men on the Hand's orders. So it was more attacking the Hand, and possibly by extension the king, that Tywin did and not the Stormlands.

Not really. To start with Renly didn't for all we know give a shit about Beric or those men. He never brings it up as a relevant point so a conflict with the Stormlands was on entirely different grounds.

To that there are two things I think that you miss. For the first thing what Tywin can expect from the future and then the relation between the Lannisters and King Robert.

In regards to what Tywin can see, everything points to that Eddard Stark is using his position as Hand of the KIng to move against the Lannisters at court with a goal to deny Tywin's grandson his father's throne. If there's contact between Casterly Rock and King's Landing then Tywin will know that there's been tensions and clashes between the Lannisters and Starks already on the road back to King's Landing. Tywin will then find that Tyrion is arrested by Catelyn Stark, on Eddard's orders as Eddard told Jaime, using Riverland soldiers to take Tyrion to her sister in the Vale. This all looks like Eddard is enacting a plan against the House of Lannister rather than coincidences and Tywin respons with violence to what is an attack on his House.

In regards to killing Robert I'm not sure that a living Robert would have doomed the Lannisters. King Robert has at every time turned away from a conflict with the Lannisters. From Joffrey spat with Arya to Lannister guardsmen attacking Eddard on the streets of King's Landing, Robert looked the other way, and in the last issue went hunting instead. So much for the Stark-Baratheon alliance.

Also you are very correct in that Tywin underestimated Robb, but then again, after Tywin's triumphan march through the Riverlands its really not that strange to think that a green boy will not be a major opponent.

In a way yes. The problem is of course that like most separatists they are all to eager to gobble up other people's territory and hence brough the Riverlands, ruled by Robb's maternal relatives and in little over a decade the North's allies in three wars, with them to ensure that those guys wouldn't be left out to dry in the western wind.

The march to King's Landing is actually rather predictable in that it was one of the main reason he was a Harrenhall to start with. That Robb made some strateic blunders is really not a fault of Tywin nor is the fact that Balon Greyjoy wanted to win himself and not serve as kingmaker to someone else. And the North is very much an easier target than the West, which no king sitting on the Iron Throne would be willing to surrender to the Ironmen.

And there's little reason to think that Robb would fall on Tywin's army. Robb took most of his cavalry with him into the West and infantry are most often a bit to slow to fall on the enemy, in particular when Tywin has as much horse as he's got. There's just no reason to fear that entrenched infantry will catch up to a force march and fall on the moving troops.

They didn't magically teleport anywhere but rather used some sense to move themselves. And the Tyrells have not been particular loyal to anyone. They changed swiftly enough to support Robert against the Greyjoys and they sought to place their own Baratheon on the throne rather than seat a new Targaryen king. So I doubt they cared much for Targaryen kids and its rather evident that they felt nothing particular ill will against Tywin.

Not really. Tywin's victories comes from expert planning and excellent logistics and organization. Tywin isn't a flashy general nor a great tactician but he's definielty the greatest strategic mind in his time and when the battle is fought, he's already set himself up to win so there's no need for dramatic scenography and his hair trailing in the wind, so to speak.

Robb Stark reacted like Tywin did when he heard his father was arrested for a crime he committed. Same with the Laughing Storm over a broken marriage promise. There are plenty of people who react just like Tywin.

 

I can't agree with that because so much of the wars outcome hinged on factors that were beyond Tywin Lannisters control that were entirely to his benefit.

Could he have beaten the Starks if Rob had made common cause with Stannis? Could he have done it without Balons invasion of the North. What if Stannis had accepted Renlys offer. What if keeping House Arryn out of the war hadn't been Littlefinger plan. What if the Tyrell's had been aware of a potential Targ restoration like House Martel was on the cards and stayed out of the war. All of these factors allowed what is really a middle tier faction to conquer the 7 Kingdoms. Not Tywin Lannister himself who really takes all the credit. 

Basically he walked into a war he had no reason to assume he could win. He only won because the plot gifted him House Tyrel and splintered his enemies. He himself won no victory that was worthy of merit. An idiot could have won the Blackwater with that many men in the Baratheon rear. An idiot could have convinced the Freys and Boltons to turn. These are not impressive feats. 

Let's take a random example out of the blue. Before the Battle of Yunkai we see Dany come up with this brilliant plot to split up the Sellswords and then how she will use her cavalry to roll up the Yunkai army. Barristan and Jorah approve and think this is all great and it works like a charm. That's clearly done to tell us that Danys clever and has some sense about these things. The emphasis is on what she does to get the outcome. But with Tywin the focus is on how the game is rigged in Tywin favour. I can't ever recall him doing anything that I would call noteworthy or that GRRM was trying to tell me was meant to be impressive. We are told that he is impressive and has some sort of legend; but he never lives to that legend. He isn't the one who is outnumbered 3 to 1 and wins. He's the guy who has more men and he has more men because of events outside his control.

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1 hour ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

Could he have beaten the Starks if Rob had made common cause with Stannis?

With the Tyrells it was a certainty. Without the Tyrells it is certainly a possibility as the numbers of Stannis, Robb and the Riverlands is not that different to the Westerland and Crownland forces. 

1 hour ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

Could he have done it without Balons invasion of the North.

Of course as Robb never actually went back to deal with this threat. The North had already been destabilised with the Hornwood civil war. 

1 hour ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

What if Stannis had accepted Renlys offer.

The Renly should have easily won. 

How is this on Tywin though? No one could have predicted that the Reach was about to rebel at the start of the series and Tywin does not seem to have been in the plan to kill Robert. 

1 hour ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

What if keeping House Arryn out of the war hadn't been Littlefinger plan.

GRRM mentions that the Vale was split in its support. 

1 hour ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

What if the Tyrell's had been aware of a potential Targ restoration like House Martel was on the cards and stayed out of the war.

That would have been excellent as it stops Renly from rebelling. The Crown was only introuble because of the Reach and the Stormlands unexpectedly rebelling. 

1 hour ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

All of these factors allowed what is really a middle tier faction to conquer the 7 Kingdoms. Not Tywin Lannister himself who really takes all the credit. 

Does he? When does he claim all this credit?

And who is this middle tier faction you speak of?

1 hour ago, Tyrion1991 said:

Basically he walked into a war he had no reason to assume he could win.

He had every reason to believe that he, the father-law of the King, would be able to be get out of serious punishment for his actions. When Robert had died he have even greater reason to figure that the grandfather to the legal and recognised heir of Robert would receive zero punishment. 

Renly was a wild card in this event, something that GRRM needed to actually make the war last three books instead of it being quickly finished in the first quarter of ACOK. 

1 hour ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

He only won because the plot gifted him House Tyrel and splintered his enemies.

The plot giveth and taketh away. She is a fickle mistress. 

When Tywin sent Gregor into the Riverlands he had no cause to consider that the Tyrells would be his enemy. 

1 hour ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

He himself won no victory that was worthy of merit. An idiot could have won the Blackwater with that many men in the Baratheon rear. An idiot could have convinced the Freys and Boltons to turn. These are not impressive feats. 

Sure. Does Tywin call them impressive?

 

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3 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

I can't agree with that because so much of the wars outcome hinged on factors that were beyond Tywin Lannisters control that were entirely to his benefit.

Yes, Tywin had a pretty good amount of luck in the war.

But it was fantastically unlucky that his plan led to war in the first place. In order for that to happen, all of the following were necessary:

  • Jaime impetuously attacking Ned so he can't walk into Tywin's trap.
  • Robb rashly calling his banners and attacking the West without even a declaration of war.
  • Stannis finding proof of Joffrey and the others being bastards (which Tywin had no reason to even know was true, much less to expect anyone to be finding proof for) at exactly the same time this was all happening. As we know, this one wasn't quite a coincidence, because of Littlefinger's plotting—but given what Tywin actually knew or should have known, it was a so ridiculously implausible that nobody could have expected it.
  • Cersei murdering Robert just as Stannis found his proof and Robb started a war. This was even more ridiculously unlucky for Tywin. Even if he'd known Cersei was trying to bump off her husband, what are the odds she'd do it at the worst possible time? A few weeks earlier and Stannis has no evidence. A few weeks later and he's already taken care of the Starks before it comes up.
  • Joffrey ruining his plans to have Ned sent to the Wall in exchange for peace and pardons all around.
  • Stannis finding a red priestess who could shadowbaby his brother so he could take enough of Renly's troops to actually be a serious threat.

If you're calling Tywin an idiot or a reckless gambler for not anticipating that all of that would happen, what kind of person do you think would have anticipated it?

Sure, once it all got started, Tywin had some good luck to balance out his insanely bad luck. Ned choosing Beric instead of Loras was lucky. The Karstarks declaring Robb the King in the North was lucky. Renly having just enough time to get Mace excited about the idea of Queen Margy and then getting killed at exactly the right time was lucky. But compare his lucky breaks to his unlucky breaks, and Tywin was not an idiot coasting on luck. He was ridiculously unlucky, and improvised brilliantly given an unpredictable situation. Beyond Plan B, all of his plans were pretty risky—but that's only because his first plans failed for implausible reasons, and he was smart enough both times to find the best chance left to him and take it.

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A good leader should have some foresight into future events. If he walked into a war assuming, "Iam the Kings Grandfather and have 60,000 men I can't lose" then that could have been an atrocious error of judgement. It is only because the plot saved this man that he withstood the forces arrayed against him. 

He himself did very little proactive to win the war. The dominos fell into his hands. 

I think it does call into question the opinion a lot of characters have of him in the novels.

Plus its thematically important because you can't say that Tywin was the perfect Machiavellian Prince. If everything is a game of chance then is ruthlessness a prerequisite for success?

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