Was Tywin an idiot or a reckless gambler?

[UnFit Finlay]

1 hour ago, Tyrion1991 said:

A good leader should have some foresight into future events. If he walked into a war assuming, "Iam the Kings Grandfather and have 60,000 men I can't lose" then that could have been an atrocious error of judgement. It is only because the plot saved this man that he withstood the forces arrayed against him. 

That's a major simplification. I don't think anyone is arguing that Tywin went to war casually or felt that he couldn't possibly lose. Of course he could. With that said, given his influence in King's Landing AND the fact that the Starks DID start the conflict, the risks to him must've seemed minimal.

I also don't think you can use him being taken by surprise by the events that falcotron described as a lack of foresight into future events. There's no way anyone could've predicted all those things happening.

 

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He himself did very little proactive to win the war. The dominos fell into his hands.

 

I disagree.

Tywin put the dominos (weird analogy) in place. He hated Tyrion but judged him intelligent enough to rule while he was out on the field. Had he not done so then King's Landing would've fallen to Stannis, the Tyrell and Dornish alliances would never have happened, Cat would not have released Jaime and Robb would've kept the Karstarks. That isn't even getting into the kind of chaos that Cersei and Joffrey would've caused had Tyrion not been there to reign them in.

We also know from Jaime's conversations with the Westerlings at Riverrun, that it was Tywin who arranged for Robb to sleep with Jeyne. Sure, he couldn't have known for sure that Robb would then feel honour bound to marry her and break his oath to the Freys but there was no risk to him in the slightest. He took away his enemy's most important allies, and ultimately ended the war, with a pretty girl and some promises. That's a work of genius. Evil genius, sure, but genius all the same.

I'd also argue that the decades he's spent constructing and protecting his fearsome reputation were instrumental in the outcome of the war as well. Had the Iron Born invaded the West then Tywin would've been fighting on three fronts but Balon STILL didn't think he could win and chose to attack the far poorer North instead. I'd argue that it was likely a factor in convincing Walder to go through with the Red Wedding as well.

His alliance with Roose is another example of his intelligence. Winterfell and the North were Roose's price for betraying Robb. Tywin knew that but didn't trust Roose so gave him "Arya" while keeping Sansa for House Lannister. That way when Roose inevitably got out of line, Tywin would have the legitimate Stark heir in reserve. He could not have foreseen Tyrion's kindess, Joffrey being assassinated and Sansa disappearing but, even with that, he still had enough on Roose to unseat him if he should step out of line.

[Tyrion1991]

2 hours ago, UnFit Finlay said:

That's a major simplification. I don't think anyone is arguing that Tywin went to war casually or felt that he couldn't possibly lose. Of course he could. With that said, given his influence in King's Landing AND the fact that the Starks DID start the conflict, the risks to him must've seemed minimal.

I also don't think you can use him being taken by surprise by the events that falcotron described as a lack of foresight into future events. There's no way anyone could've predicted all those things happening.

 

I disagree.

Tywin put the dominos (weird analogy) in place. He hated Tyrion but judged him intelligent enough to rule while he was out on the field. Had he not done so then King's Landing would've fallen to Stannis, the Tyrell and Dornish alliances would never have happened, Cat would not have released Jaime and Robb would've kept the Karstarks. That isn't even getting into the kind of chaos that Cersei and Joffrey would've caused had Tyrion not been there to reign them in.

We also know from Jaime's conversations with the Westerlings at Riverrun, that it was Tywin who arranged for Robb to sleep with Jeyne. Sure, he couldn't have known for sure that Robb would then feel honour bound to marry her and break his oath to the Freys but there was no risk to him in the slightest. He took away his enemy's most important allies, and ultimately ended the war, with a pretty girl and some promises. That's a work of genius. Evil genius, sure, but genius all the same.

I'd also argue that the decades he's spent constructing and protecting his fearsome reputation were instrumental in the outcome of the war as well. Had the Iron Born invaded the West then Tywin would've been fighting on three fronts but Balon STILL didn't think he could win and chose to attack the far poorer North instead. I'd argue that it was likely a factor in convincing Walder to go through with the Red Wedding as well.

His alliance with Roose is another example of his intelligence. Winterfell and the North were Roose's price for betraying Robb. Tywin knew that but didn't trust Roose so gave him "Arya" while keeping Sansa for House Lannister. That way when Roose inevitably got out of line, Tywin would have the legitimate Stark heir in reserve. He could not have foreseen Tyrion's kindess, Joffrey being assassinated and Sansa disappearing but, even with that, he still had enough on Roose to unseat him if he should step out of line.

 

This doesn't square with his actions in Storm of Swords where he turns completely against Tyrion. If he had put Tyrion in power with the expectation that he would do well then why does he not credit him with what you lost. This implies he has no faith in his son whatsoever. Plus you can't credit Tywin with Tyrions successes. He very much takes all the credit and belittles Tyrions role in ACOK.

Yeah he couldn't possibly have known this would succeed. Just because he essentially hired a prostitute to sleep with Rob is hardly tantamount to orchestrating the Red Wedding. What if Walker had actually bothered to show his gorgeous daughter to Rob for example...or at least show her to Catylyn. As you say it also depends on Robbs personality. Imagine if he tried this turn Jorah against Daenerys for example.

But his reputation seems highly undeserved. He didn't fight any major pitched battles in an inter house conflict like Ned or Rob did. Unless you count murdering and raping people in Kings Landing. All he ever did was act as Hand of the King and fight some petty Lords in the westerlands. He's hardly the victor at the Trident like Ned and Rob were. He hardly held Storms End against 100,000 men. Plus his reputation should have taken a hit after Rob owned his "legendary" Lannister army at Riverrun despite massive advantage in numbers.

Plus the Greyjoys destroyed the Lannister fleet during the rebellion.  It was the Starks and Baratheons who broke the Greyjoys; not the Lannisters. He had no reason to fear them. Especially not if Eurons 1000 ships is accurate.

Didn't he plan to make Tyrion Lord of Winterfell and only gave the Boltons fake Arya after Joffreys death?

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 9/23/2017 at 3:08 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

In the first book, Tywin responds to Tyrions kidnap by sending out the Mountain to brutally raid the Riverlands and this is recognised by Ned Stark who demands that Tywin come to court to answer for Gregors crimes. Instead of just handing a quite despised Knight over, he instead chooses to invade the Riverlands after destroying a Stormland force led by Beric Dondarrion. Now, this played out very, very well for him in the books.

Tywin sent Gregor into the Riverlands to draw Eddard out where Tywin could trap him. Taking Eddard hostage would have been highly beneficial. 

On 9/23/2017 at 3:08 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

But, that kind of depends on a lot of very circumstantial things. Namely, if Robert Baratheon hadn't died. Perhaps the Boar didn't get him, or he recovered from his wounds. Cersei, that wondrous idiot, was insanely lucky for this to actually work. The stars aligned here. If that hadn't happened. Well, Rob would have taken Neds side and you would have had the Starks, Stormlands and Riverlands siding against Tywin. Which was actually the most likely outcome. So when Tywin invaded, he must have known that he risked fighting all three of these factions and once. Which, since he had so much trouble just fighting Rob Stark means that he actually was making a colossal error of judgement to go into that war thinking he could win. Its only because fate intervened and shattered the Stark/Baratheon alliance that he ever stood a chance. By attacking Beric and invading the Stormlands he had already gone too far to back down. 

Tywin did not invade until after Robert was killed. 

On 9/23/2017 at 3:08 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

Later on in the war we then have the two front war with the Starks and Baratheons. Now, firstly Rob Stark could have chosen to side with Stannis, he did seem to be leaning towards this until Greatfart Umbar decided to go all "King of the North but we'll go south of Moat Calin and lose" and ruined everything. The North declaring independence was pretty unprecedented. Tywin could not have forseen this. He probably would have assumed some sort of Stark-Baratheon coalition and for Rob to make common cause with one of RB brothers. Instead fate played into his hands. 

I am sure Tywin realized this. That's probably why he marched his army up the Neck to stop Robb. 

On 9/23/2017 at 3:08 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

Then, you have his march to Kings Landing. Now fortunately for him, Rob Stark let his army withdraw from the Riverlands as they were in the Westerlands and the Greyjoys had (again inexplicably) attacked the North. Really, Tywin should have known that a forced march would leave the army hugely exposed and that Rob could have fallen on and destroyed his host if he had been focused on him. With the information Tywin had, this was a colossal gamble rather than a well thought out decision.

Umm, no. When Tywin joined with Mace and marched on King’s Landing they were grabbing the gold ring. Robb was still in the Westerlands. 

On 9/23/2017 at 3:08 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

Finally we have the Reach and the magical teleporting everyone to arrive precisely when they are needed at exactly the same time without anybody being aware of over 100,000 men moving. Now, when this war started. Tywin, had absolutely no reason to assume that the Tyrells and all the power of the Reach would join him. They were close to Renly and had been pro Targ in the war. They were no friends of Tywin. So again, the stars aligned for Tywin.

Robb sent Catelyn to treat with Renly. Stannis knew what was up too, and he besieged Storm's End to draw out Renly. In King's Landing, the crown sent Petyr to treat with Renly. Tywin then had to march back home to put down Robb's raiding. After Stannis took down Renly and seized Storm's End, he had the power to march on King’s Landing. After Petyr persuaded Mace to accept Cersei's offer, Rowan and Oakheart advised Tywin, and perused him to grab the gold ring. Stannis did send emissaries to Mace, but they were taken captive. 

[elder brother jonothor dar]

2 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

Didn't he plan to make Tyrion Lord of Winterfell and only gave the Boltons fake Arya after Joffreys death?

No Arya had been 'found' before the red wedding and was part of the deal to get Roose on side

[falcotron]

9 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

Plus its thematically important because you can't say that Tywin was the perfect Machiavellian Prince. If everything is a game of chance then is ruthlessness a prerequisite for success?

Well, Tywin certainly isn't a perfect Machiavellian Prince. He hires lots of mercenaries, he depends on castles to ride out peasant rebellions, he doesn't understand that inspiring both love and respect/fear among the peasants is better than either one separately, etc. (Not that this should be a surprise, because all of the best leaders in the middle ages made all of those mistakes, which is why Machiavelli had to write The Prince well into the renaissance to point out that they were mistakes.)

In fact, thematically, what Tywin (together with Cersei trying to be Tywin later) demonstrates best is the difference between an actual perfect Prince as described by Machiavelli, and what people who've never read The Prince call "Machiavellian".

But his ruthlessness certainly does help him. His reputation is part of the reason the Greyjoys attacked the North instead of the West. Getting the Freys to commit an atrocity against their own liege so he didn't have the fight their army was certainly pretty helpful. And so on.

Also, you keep calling him lucky, while ignoring the fact that he was very unlucky to have gotten dragged into a war in the first place. Once he had that long string of bad luck, he did make some very risky moves, and was lucky that most (but not all) of them paid off, but that's entirely because he understood what a bad situation he was in, and that the only option other than taking those risks was to just lose. That doesn't make him a lucky idiot, or a reckless gambler. I think few people in the story could have pulled off his win.

And again, you keep saying he should have had some foresight, but he would have needed magical powers and intense paranoia to have foreseen what was going to happen. Do you seriously think he should have expected all of those things to go wrong in exactly the right way to drag him into a war? Or are you just so strongly committed to having a contrarian opinion about Tywin that you won't even think about that question?

[Wild Bill]

5 hours ago, falcotron said:

In fact, thematically, what Tywin (together with Cersei trying to be Tywin later) demonstrates best is the difference between an actual perfect Prince as described by Machiavelli, and what people who've never read The Prince call "Machiavellian".

I agree with the "people who've never read..." bit completely. I've had a lot of discussions about what Machiavelli is all about, compared to what the non-reader thinks (ie evil manipulation and/or totally amoral behaviour). I'm not so sure there is any thematic thing going on here, though. Who cares? @Tyrion1991, a different, and crude, way of looking at Machiavelli is of just "playing the odds". In this, as falcotron states, Tywin does well.

Btw, I posted earlier, and was obviously ignored/overlooked/or perhaps so wrong as to not be worthy of a response; that the whole notion of "drawing out Ned" is not likely, so either Tywin didn't want to draw Ned out (and therefor Jaime did not make a bad mistake in attacking Ned - at least for this reason), or he foolishly though he could draw him out, or grrm was just doing stuff to make it work. Someplace upthread...

Cheers

[falcotron]

32 minutes ago, Wild Bill said:

Btw, I posted earlier, and was obviously ignored/overlooked/or perhaps so wrong as to not be worthy of a response; that the whole notion of "drawing out Ned" is not likely, so either Tywin didn't want to draw Ned out (and therefor Jaime did not make a bad mistake in attacking Ned - at least for this reason), or he foolishly though he could draw him out, or grrm was just doing stuff to make it work. Someplace upthread...

I'll have to go back and reread both your post and the relevant parts of the book before I can comment on that.

But meanwhile, there are two things that do bother me about Tywin's plan, at least based on my recollection (I haven't reread it recently).

First, it sounds like Beric ran into a force at the river openly flying Lannister colors who attacked them, and were then ambushed by the Mountain as they tried to retreat. Why use open Lannister men, instead of more "bandits" like the Mountain's men? Or, if they were openly riding to war and didn't care if anyone saw them attacking a royal force, why was the Mountain still disguised?

Second, it sounds like it happened way too late. IIRC, the two River Lords left Beric's force before they reached Mummer's Ford because the Riverlands had already attacked Golden Tooth and the Lannisters were on their way to retaliate by besieging Riverrun? At that point, who cares about luring Beric's 100 men into a trap? Surely Tywin wanted to capture or kill Ned before a war broke out, but if he couldn't lure in Beric until that late, how would he have done it to Ned?

[Wild Bill]

13 minutes ago, falcotron said:

I'll have to go back and reread both your post and the relevant parts of the book before I can comment on that.

But meanwhile, there are two things that do bother me about Tywin's plan, at least based on my recollection (I haven't reread it recently).

First, it sounds like Beric ran into a force at the river openly flying Lannister colors who attacked them, and were then ambushed by the Mountain as they tried to retreat. Why use open Lannister men, instead of more "bandits" like the Mountain's men? Or, if they were openly riding to war and didn't care if anyone saw them attacking a royal force, why was the Mountain still disguised?

Second, it sounds like it happened way too late. IIRC, the two River Lords left Beric's force before they reached Mummer's Ford because the Riverlands had already attacked Golden Tooth and the Lannisters were on their way to retaliate by besieging Riverrun? At that point, who cares about luring Beric's 100 men into a trap? Surely Tywin wanted to capture or kill Ned before a war broke out, but if he couldn't lure in Beric until that late, how would he have done it to Ned?

I appreciate your research. As I've mentioned to you before, I'm not a critical reader/researcher, so your efforts are wonderful for the lazy lot like me.

My vague memories are of Ned being giving information of the harrowing of the Riverlands is in court, after his wounds from Jamie, but that may be show contamination, partial or total... Similarly, Jamie leading an army vs Riverrun happens when? I just reread four months ago, but I was more interested in book vs show, and not particularly paying attention. But, my memory is of a lot of fog of war and most things being off screen, as it were.

To your point about open use of the Lannister colours. That tracks to my general impression. Perhaps Robert was dead by then? I speculate that Catelyn seizing Tyrion caused a response vs Tully's (that is disguised) which caused a response by Ned with Beric. Twincest is revealed and Robert dies and all subtlety goes out the window - no need to hide the civil war. IIRC, Robb called his banners when Ned was arrested, etc. Jaime marches for Riverrun, Tywin makes the blocking move to deny Robb from supporting Riverrun or going to Kings Landing.

[cpg2016]

Tywin is a crazy irresponsible gambler, that's all.

It's well known that he's behind the reaving in the Riverlands, and Ned says as much.  It's only pure chance (read: GRRM intervening) that allows him to escape being essentially stripped of Casterly Rock.  Tywin's plan is completely freaking bonkers, even if it works.  His whole idea is to capture Ned and exchange him for Tyrion, but this is bound to anger Robert and lessen Lannister influence at court; it's not out of the question that Ned is returned as Hand, which makes Tywin's position even more precarious.

The problem is Tywin has no idea on how to respond to anything except with violence, especially where his family name is concerned.  He believes in fear and fear alone, which means fighting and reaving.