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What if Aegon didn't conquer Westeros?


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2 hours ago, SorcererOfAsshai said:

Tyrosh, Lys, Myr & even Volantis would have much to earn from tearing pieces of Westeros apart. The Stormlands, our fresh Crownlands would be in much danger. The two kingdoms who most likely would remain intact from invaders would have been the Vale of the Arryn & Dorne. Also we shouldnt exclude the possibility that one or two of those seven kingdoms could grow stronger & absord regions to their dominion so Westeros could become a 2 or 3 kingdoms business. 

The entire Vale is very hard to conquer entirely, but that's mostly because breaking through either gate to reach the Eyrie is a nightmare, and really, who needs the Eyrie? Or Redfort, Strongsong, or any of those other mountain castles. They probably look pretty, but all I want is to control the trade routes and the arable land. Which means Gulltown and the actual Vale of Arryn, respectively. And both look easy to take, at least for anyone capable of striking across the Narrow Sea.

Land outside Gulltown, capture it, and use a small force to lay siege to Runestone while another small force blocks the mountain passes* and my navy blocks the coastal approach, and how are they going to lift the siege? Then repeat the same operation on the next peninsula up—it seems to be more villages and small castles than just one big target, but if I can keep the Arryn armies out, that's even easier.

And then, once the Arryns make peace, start subsidizing them as a buffer state between me and the Hoares and Durrandons.**

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* Or maybe just ally with the mountain tribes?

** I may want to fight them later, but only if I'm ready to take control of both outer shores of the Bay of Crabs, not just to fighting pointless battles over Saltpans, much less the west slopes of the Mountains of the Moon or the High Road.

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7 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

why do you assume they were going down? They had just finished a castle that could survive any siege. They had secured the riverlands, fought off the storm king and were waiting to expand their kingdom. Again, the only reason why anyone "declared" early is that word spread of one man on a dragon taking a castle in a single night.  Houses do not last long when they pick the losing side. all the river houses chose wisely  

Because, according to the text of the books, Harrenhal was a massive waste of resources, and too expensive to maintain, even in its semi-demolished form.  If the Hoares continued to use Harrenhal, it would suck in more resources than it was worth.  There's more to building an empire than just having an amazingly defensible seat of power.  King's Landing is not particularly defensible.  The Hoare dynasty would be impoverished by their great castle.  Besides, no matter how great the defenses, if push came to shove, the fact that the castle is so big and needs so much manpower to properly defend works against it.  Sure, a dragon is a very dramatic way of ending a dynasty, but you know what works almost as well?  Starvation.  Its just slower  Anyone that would attack Harrenhal would look at those defenses and just go "Whelp, looks like we're starving them out.  Build up some circumvallation lines, we're going to be here awhile."  And with how many people would be in Harrenhal in order to properly defend it, starvation might come sooner than some might think.

If you want a good example of a castle that does what Harrenhal is supposed to do, but better, its the Eyrie.  Much smaller, but even more impregnable, and, better yet, the surrounding terrain is far less hospitable to besieging armies.  The whole point of a castle is a force multiplier.  A laughably small garrison could hold the Eyrie against almost anyone (similar to Moat Cailin), tying up a larger opposing force.  Harrenhal's so stupidly big that it would probably have just as many besieged as besiegers.  At that point, the force multiplication purpose is tossed out the window.

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Weird nobody mentioned but if Aegon didn't conquer Westeros, the Others will have showed up perhaps earlier with nobody to counter them. Maybe Aegon's conquest stopped the Others invasion then and there.

Harrental seems to me also like a huge blood sacrifice intended to be something else. The timing of Aegon's conquest is also interesting in that respect.

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14 hours ago, falcotron said:

The entire Vale is very hard to conquer entirely, but that's mostly because breaking through either gate to reach the Eyrie is a nightmare, and really, who needs the Eyrie? Or Redfort, Strongsong, or any of those other mountain castles. They probably look pretty, but all I want is to control the trade routes and the arable land. Which means Gulltown and the actual Vale of Arryn, respectively. And both look easy to take, at least for anyone capable of striking across the Narrow Sea.

Land outside Gulltown, capture it, and use a small force to lay siege to Runestone while another small force blocks the mountain passes* and my navy blocks the coastal approach, and how are they going to lift the siege? Then repeat the same operation on the next peninsula up—it seems to be more villages and small castles than just one big target, but if I can keep the Arryn armies out, that's even easier.

And then, once the Arryns make peace, start subsidizing them as a buffer state between me and the Hoares and Durrandons.**

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* Or maybe just ally with the mountain tribes?

** I may want to fight them later, but only if I'm ready to take control of both outer shores of the Bay of Crabs, not just to fighting pointless battles over Saltpans, much less the west slopes of the Mountains of the Moon or the High Road.

The same way the Vale managed to beat back northern attacks on Gulltown. Your plan isn't very sound. Small force to besiege the most powerful bannerman of House Arryn? Great idea. The Arryns send for other houses to sweep away your small forces and their navy breaks your blockade. The north tried and failed.

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4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Weird nobody mentioned but if Aegon didn't conquer Westeros, the Others will have showed up perhaps earlier with nobody to counter them. Maybe Aegon's conquest stopped the Others invasion then and there.

Harrental seems to me also like a huge blood sacrifice intended to be something else. The timing of Aegon's conquest is also interesting in that respect.

I find that unlikely, though we’ll have the new history book next year to help delve into the early Targaryen years and see what sorts of magic is going on. 

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5 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

The same way the Vale managed to beat back northern attacks on Gulltown. Your plan isn't very sound. Small force to besiege the most powerful bannerman of House Arryn? Great idea. The Arryns send for other houses to sweep away your small forces and their navy breaks your blockade. The north tried and failed.

Braavos has a much more powerful navy than the North. Anyone who can project power across the Narrow Sea would have to have a much more powerful navy than the North. And than the Vale.

So, if I control the coasts, how are any other houses going to come by and sweep away my forces? Through that narrow mountain pass, which I can hold off with another small force? Unless they invent airlifts, paratroopers, or transmats, there's not much they can do.

And yes, it only takes a small force to lay siege if there's nobody who can lift the siege. I realize that almost every siege in the books, they just immediately storm the walls without even setting up camp, and that actually takes an overwhelming army far larger than the ones inside, but you don't actually have to do that. Especially if you actually bring siege machinery (which Essos, unlike Westeros, seems to have).

More generally, SorcererofAsshai is positing a military that could conquer any of the kingdoms of Westeros they wanted to except maybe the Vale or Dorne. You really think such a military wouldn't be able to conquer Gulltown and Runestone, just because a small Northern expeditionary force couldn't?

Also, when did the Vale navy sweep aside a Northern blockade? The only mention of Gulltown that I remember during the Worthless War was the Starks storming the harbor, burning the entire Vale navy there, deciding it wasn't worth attacking the city, and leaving. And Gulltown was taken during (at least) the Andal invasion, the First Men rebellion, and Robert's Rebellion, but I don't think any Northmen were involved in any of those. Am I misremembering, or is there another conflict that involved the North and Gulltown?

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54 minutes ago, falcotron said:

Braavos has a much more powerful navy than the North. Anyone who can project power across the Narrow Sea would have to have a much more powerful navy than the North. And than the Vale.

So, if I control the coasts, how are any other houses going to come by and sweep away my forces? Through that narrow mountain pass, which I can hold off with another small force? Unless they invent airlifts, paratroopers, or transmats, there's not much they can do.

And yes, it only takes a small force to lay siege if there's nobody who can lift the siege. I realize that almost every siege in the books, they just immediately storm the walls without even setting up camp, and that actually takes an overwhelming army far larger than the ones inside, but you don't actually have to do that. Especially if you actually bring siege machinery (which Essos, unlike Westeros, seems to have).

More generally, SorcererofAsshai is positing a military that could conquer any of the kingdoms of Westeros they wanted to except maybe the Vale or Dorne. You really think such a military wouldn't be able to conquer Gulltown and Runestone, just because a small Northern expeditionary force couldn't?

Also, when did the Vale navy sweep aside a Northern blockade? The only mention of Gulltown that I remember during the Worthless War was the Starks storming the harbor, burning the entire Vale navy there, deciding it wasn't worth attacking the city, and leaving. And Gulltown was taken during (at least) the Andal invasion, the First Men rebellion, and Robert's Rebellion, but I don't think any Northmen were involved in any of those. Am I misremembering, or is there another conflict that involved the North and Gulltown?

Then I'd mention Gulltown next time. 

To cut through the rest, I think your small siege force would get stomped ala battle of the camps because the Vale has tens of thousands of men who are going to fight you to lift the sieges of the mountain passes and Runestone. Gulltown will not fall quickly. The naval blockade might work, but unless Braavos is landing tens of thousands of troops, they would just get mercilessly stomped landside. Honestly there is really no way around that. 

And no I don't think the Free Cities could do much. They fight each other far too much. Volantis couldn't even hold onto parts of Essos that are 5x closer. Why would Myr or Lys (which doesn't have a standing army) be able to control parts of Westeros across the ocean. None of them would. Braavos could kill seaborne traffic but that's about it. 

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2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Then I'd mention Gulltown next time. 

I did mention Gulltown. You quoted me mentioning Gulltown, and then mentioned it again yourself in the reply that I quoted.

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

To cut through the rest, I think your small siege force would get stomped ala battle of the camps because the Vale has tens of thousands of men who are going to fight you to lift the sieges of the mountain passes and Runestone.

The Vale has tens of thousands of men across the mountains and bays, but if they can't bring those men to where the battle is, that doesn't do much good. Look at the map.

That's not a problem for Riverrun, because almost any of your vassals can get to Riverrun just by crossing wide open fields, but it is a problem for the Vale. The same thing that makes it next to impossible to conquer the entire Vale makes it much easier to isolate parts of it and fight them separately. The only way you get an all-out battle is if both sides want an all-out battle, like the final showdown between the Arryns and Royces millennia ago.

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

And no I don't think the Free Cities could do much.

Fine. I'm saying that any force that could conquer, e.g., the Stormlands from across the Sea could at least as easily conquer the useful parts of the Vale. If your answer is that there is no such force and no way such a force could ever exist so it isn't worth talking about in the first place, then you don't have to talk about it.

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14 hours ago, falcotron said:

I did mention Gulltown. You quoted me mentioning Gulltown, and then mentioned it again yourself in the reply that I quoted.

The Vale has tens of thousands of men across the mountains and bays, but if they can't bring those men to where the battle is, that doesn't do much good. Look at the map.

That's not a problem for Riverrun, because almost any of your vassals can get to Riverrun just by crossing wide open fields, but it is a problem for the Vale. The same thing that makes it next to impossible to conquer the entire Vale makes it much easier to isolate parts of it and fight them separately. The only way you get an all-out battle is if both sides want an all-out battle, like the final showdown between the Arryns and Royces millennia ago.

Fine. I'm saying that any force that could conquer, e.g., the Stormlands from across the Sea could at least as easily conquer the useful parts of the Vale. If your answer is that there is no such force and no way such a force could ever exist so it isn't worth talking about in the first place, then you don't have to talk about it.

I am looking at the Vale. You know why they call it the Vale? Because most of it is easily traversable. You are not going to be able to besiege or bottle every single mountain pass. The Vale fought off the andals because they were able to play them against each other, not because you were able to bottle off passes. Troops would still largely be able to get where they need/want to go. The only place you could really bottle people up is outside the bloody gates.

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11 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I am looking at the Vale. You know why they call it the Vale? Because most of it is easily traversable. You are not going to be able to besiege or bottle every single mountain pass. The Vale fought off the andals because they were able to play them against each other, not because you were able to bottle off passes. Troops would still largely be able to get where they need/want to go. The only place you could really bottle people up is outside the bloody gates.

No, it really isn't. They call it the Vale because the eastern peninsula that's called the Vale Proper, or the Vale of Arryn proper, is a vale.

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