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North defeat war of five kings


Alex Gu

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4 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Yeah he didn't give them any reason to support him. He's not their liege lord. He's not their king, or he might claim it but he doesn't say why.  To gain someone's loyalty, especially when no one really likes you, you better damn well give them a reason. Him publishing his letter after Renly was crowned was the height of folly. Renly might not have liked Stannis but he's not like to turn away a potential ally against the Lannisters, who Renly is rightly convinced want him and Stannis dead. Politically his approach to the crown pre blackwater is just hamfisted and awful. He acknowledges as much when he gets to the wall. 

Yes, I should have come sooner. If not for my Hand, I might not have come at all. Lord Seaworth is a man of humble birth, but he reminded me of my duty, when all I could think of was my rights. I had the cart before the horse, Davos said. I was trying to win the throne to save the kingdom, when I should have been trying to save the kingdom to win the throne."

If he'd been more concerned with defeating the Lannisters by any means necessary to prevent their usurpation of the throne, he might well have found himself on it, instead of 2000 miles away from it.

One of Stannis's mistakes was not explicitly proving that Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen were really Cersei and Jaime's kids. I recall this exchange in the show: 

Robb Stark: "Stannis Baratheon sent ravens to all the high lords of Westeros. King Joffrey Baratheon is neither a true king, nor a true Baratheon. He's your bastard son."


Jaime Lannister: "Well, if that's true, then Stannis is the rightful king. How convenient for him." 

Just look at Ned's kids in the books. With his five kids with Catelyn, only one (Arya) had the Stark features, while the rest resembled Tullys with their auburn hair and blue eyes. For some reason, I'm surprised Cersei didn't think to retort with that when Ned confronted her. She could have said that the pot was calling the kettle black.

2 hours ago, Horse of Kent said:

Not get tied down by the Riverlands. Had Robb, on Ned's death Robb, executed Jaime and had a quick chevauchée of the Westerlands to save face before heading back North (picking up Roslin on the way) and fortifying Moat Cailin then all would have been fine. Trying to protect another region, far from home with no natural defences was too much of an ask.

On the other hand, Walder might not have given him Roslin at all just to troll Robb. Roslin's pretty, but what about the rest? And Robb felt like he had a duty to the Riverlands since Catelyn's from the Riverlands.

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9 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

On the other hand, Walder might not have given him Roslin at all just to troll Robb. Roslin's pretty, but what about the rest?

That match primarily benefits Walder. If you can get out of it with him taking the damage to whatever is left of his good name instead of you then excellent job.

 

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And Robb felt like he had a duty to the Riverlands since Catelyn's from the Riverlands.

Advise them to kneel to Stannis. You are right that Robb would not abandon them, but I don't think the OP's question can be answered another way. We know what happens if Robb makes the decisions he would.

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2 minutes ago, Horse of Kent said:

That match primarily benefits Walder. If you can get out of it with him taking the damage to whatever is left of his good name instead of you then excellent job.

 

Advise them to kneel to Stannis. You are right that Robb would not abandon them, but I don't think the OP's question can be answered another way. We know what happens if Robb makes the decisions he would.

Walder doesn't care, the Red Wedding saw to that. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

One of Stannis's mistakes was not explicitly proving that Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen were really Cersei and Jaime's kids.

It's true that the idea of Baratheon hair "breeding true" doesn't really work with either real-life genetics or real-life medieval beliefs. But it's pretty clear that we're meant to believe that it is both realistic on Planetos, and believable to the people of Westeros.

The problem doesn't seem to be that people reject the proof, but that Stannis doesn't try to convince them that the proof should motivate them to act. It's not actually the duty of a feudal vassal two steps down the chain to fix a problem with the crown. And, except for any people already looking to rebel, few are going to join a rebellion unless, at a minimum, they've got a pretender who will not only tell them they're fighting for the rightful king, but also promise that he can win and imply that he'll reward them for helping him.

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2 minutes ago, falcotron said:

It's true that the idea of Baratheon hair "breeding true" doesn't really work with either real-life genetics or real-life medieval beliefs. But it's pretty clear that we're meant to believe that it is both realistic on Planetos, and believable to the people of Westeros.

The problem doesn't seem to be that people reject the proof, but that Stannis doesn't try to convince them that the proof should motivate them to act. It's not actually the duty of a feudal vassal two steps down the chain to fix a problem with the crown. And, except for any people already looking to rebel, few are going to join a rebellion unless, at a minimum, they've got a pretender who will not only tell them they're fighting for the rightful king, but also promise that he can win and imply that he'll reward them for helping him.

Also, it looks terribly convenient that Stannis is the one who's saying that the Baratheon kids are bastards (and Joffrey is the biggest bastard of all), which makes him the heir. 

About the first point: the kids in Westeros don't necessarily match the appearance of their father. Ned's own kids are testament to that fact, since Arya is the only one who resembles him. 

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15 hours ago, DominusNovus said:

What the hell was he doing all that time?  If he had been even slightly more pro-active prior to the bonfire, he likely would have had an envoy in Robb’s camp (I hope GRRM wouldn’t leave that out, if, in fact, Stannis did).  In fact, the only King actually trying to wheel and deal with the other kings is Robb (Tyrion at least reaches out to Dorne for Joffrey).  Thats weird, to say the least (not to mention that his efforts backfire spectacularly).

As of late I see a possibility that "the seed is strong" was in truth a reference to Jon Snow and Stannis was expecting the North to rise in Jon's name. And only when it was clear that Robb was in Rebellion and Stannis understood what was going on, could he react. 

The joke goes even further ... with Cersei thinking Ned rebelled for Jon. Cersei has some weird obsession with Jon* and of course there is not much book reference. It's a slim possibility explaining some things. And I would not even call it a theory, more a proposal for a theory. 

There is also some weirdness between Stannis and Jon always when they meet and something is going on between them. 

 

 

*and maybe thinks he is Robert's bastard

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2 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

As of late I see a possibility that "the seed is strong" was in truth a reference to Jon Snow and Stannis was expecting the North to rise in Jon's name. And only when it was clear that Robb was in Rebellion and Stannis understood what was going on, could he react. 

The joke goes even further ... with Cersei thinking Ned rebelled for Jon. Cersei has some weird obsession with Jon* and of course there is not much book reference. It's a slim possibility explaining some things. And I would not even call it a theory, more a proposal for a theory. 

There is also some weirdness between Stannis and Jon always when they meet and something is going on between them. 

 

 

*and maybe thinks he is Robert's bastard

So when did Cersei think Jon is Robert's bastard? Does she subscribe to R (Robert) +L=J? 

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7 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

As of late I see a possibility that "the seed is strong" was in truth a reference to Jon Snow and Stannis was expecting the North to rise in Jon's name. And only when it was clear that Robb was in Rebellion and Stannis understood what was going on, could he react. 

The joke goes even further ... with Cersei thinking Ned rebelled for Jon. Cersei has some weird obsession with Jon* and of course there is not much book reference. It's a slim possibility explaining some things. And I would not even call it a theory, more a proposal for a theory. 

There is also some weirdness between Stannis and Jon always when they meet and something is going on between them. 

 

 

*and maybe thinks he is Robert's bastard

I really, really doubt it.

Jon's parentage is something Ned holds very, very dear to his heart. Whomever it may be, Jon doesn't even tell Catelyn and he refuses to speak about the boy's mother to Robert. If suddenly every other character secretly knows [but Jon himself!] is very far fetched.

The weirdness between Stannis and Jon comes from how Stannis regards Ned. He doesn't think he's the type to impregnate a random whore and come back with a baby bastard - he's pretty quick on the uptake, that much is clear from the way he figured out Tommen, Joffrey and Myrcella's parentage to Jon.

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6 minutes ago, Фейсал said:

The weirdness between Stannis and Jon comes from how Stannis regards Ned. He doesn't think he's the type to impregnate a random whore and come back with a baby bastard - he's pretty quick on the uptake, that much is clear from the way he figured out Tommen, Joffrey and Myrcella's parentage to Jon.

So if E+?=J, Jon is most likely the offspring of a highborn lady?

Just got this thought: If Cersei thought about R(Rhaegar)+L=J, she'd be even more jealous of Lyanna, since Cersei had that massive crush on Rhaegar. 

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42 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

With his five kids with Catelyn, only one (Arya) had the Stark features, while the rest resembled Tullys with their auburn hair and blue eyes. For some reason, I'm surprised Cersei didn't think to retort with that when Ned confronted her.

I think there's a lot less difference between brown-haired Ned and reddish-brown haired Catelyn than golden-haired Cersei Lannister and black-haired Robert. Modern ("real") genetics aside, the "pedigree book" that killed Jon Arryn and Ned Stark gave hair outcomes going back hundreds of years, and no matter who a Baratheon mated with, the hair always came out black. Plus, there were all those contemporary bastards - black-haired, every one.

Moreover, all of Ned/Cat's kids had blue eyes. Or grey; close enough (like brown v red-brown). Very few people in Westeros, it seems, had brown eyes. So Arya isn't that big an anomaly as you might like to believe!

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1 minute ago, zandru said:

I think there's a lot less difference between brown-haired Ned and reddish-brown haired Catelyn than golden-haired Cersei Lannister and black-haired Robert. Modern ("real") genetics aside, the "pedigree book" that killed Jon Arryn and Ned Stark gave hair outcomes going back hundreds of years, and no matter who a Baratheon mated with, the hair always came out black. Plus, there were all those contemporary bastards - black-haired, every one.

Moreover, all of Ned/Cat's kids had blue eyes. Or grey; close enough (like brown v red-brown). Very few people in Westeros, it seems, had brown eyes. So Arya isn't that big an anomaly as you might like to believe!

So how many times did a Lannister wed a Baratheon and produce legitimate offspring?

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4 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

So if E+?=J, Jon is most likely the offspring of a highborn lady?

Just got this thought: If Cersei thought about R(Rhaegar)+L=J, she'd be even more jealous of Lyanna, since Cersei had that massive crush on Rhaegar. 

That's possible, yeah. But I think he likely might have suspected ?+Someone close to E = J or some derivative there of. Possibly even got the L part right even; so ?+L = J

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5 minutes ago, Фейсал said:

That's possible, yeah. But I think he likely might have suspected ?+Someone close to E = J or some derivative there of. Possibly even got the L part right even; so ?+L = J

Depends on if anyone thought L=J, hope no one thought E+L=J because my grey matter is almost white.

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10 minutes ago, zandru said:

I think there's a lot less difference between brown-haired Ned and reddish-brown haired Catelyn than golden-haired Cersei Lannister and black-haired Robert. Modern ("real") genetics aside, the "pedigree book" that killed Jon Arryn and Ned Stark gave hair outcomes going back hundreds of years, and no matter who a Baratheon mated with, the hair always came out black. Plus, there were all those contemporary bastards - black-haired, every one.

Moreover, all of Ned/Cat's kids had blue eyes. Or grey; close enough (like brown v red-brown). Very few people in Westeros, it seems, had brown eyes. So Arya isn't that big an anomaly as you might like to believe!

I guess GRRM... doesn't like brown eyes? They don't show up often in his characters.

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7 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

So how many times did a Lannister wed a Baratheon and produce legitimate offspring?

Well, that's a good question. Will have to look this one up, but I'm tentatively thinking "never." For that matter, even any Lannister/Baratheon bastards (i.e., not legitimate offspring) would be meaningful data points. Let me get back on this, unless somebody beats me to it.

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It all depends on the meaning of "the seed is strong" and who in the Red Keep knew about the thing and who thought what about it. Varys, Cersei, Jon Arryn, Stannis .... they could have all come to different conclusions. But it does not answer the question why Robin Arryn was to be fostered elsewhere. That was kind of the reason for Lysa's acting. 

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1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

And Robb felt like he had a duty to the Riverlands since Catelyn's from the Riverlands.

More than familial duty, Robb included the Riverlands in his demand for territorial cession. That is, he intended to make it part of the northern kingdom. The demand would have been revealed as pure bluster had he retreated without securing the Riverlands. 

Of course we can also call such a sweeping attempted land grab a mistake that contributed greatly to his loss. 

Really I agree that going south of Moat Cailin was Robb's first and biggest mistake, and all subsequent mistakes were opportune because of that. I think GRRM means to tell us something by having Robb declared King in the North while in his mother's house, surrounded by enemies, rather than in his own castle. It means nothing to bear the title without first securing the tangibles that come with it. At that point he was king entirely in name and not at all in deed.

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3 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

It all depends on the meaning of "the seed is strong" and who in the Red Keep knew about the thing and who thought what about it. Varys, Cersei, Jon Arryn, Stannis .... they could have all come to different conclusions. But it does not answer the question why Robin Arryn was to be fostered elsewhere. That was kind of the reason for Lysa's acting. 

Well, Robin Arryn could certainly use being fostered elsewhere. The kid still breastfeeds at six. I wonder what he's going to do, now that Lysa's gone... 

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1 minute ago, cgrav said:

More than familial duty, Robb included the Riverlands in his demand for territorial cession. That is, he intended to make it part of the northern kingdom. The demand would have been revealed as pure bluster had he retreated without securing the Riverlands. 

Of course we can also call such a sweeping attempted land grab a mistake that contributed greatly to his loss. 

Really I agree that going south of Moat Cailin was Robb's first and biggest mistake, and all subsequent mistakes were opportune because of that. I think GRRM means to tell us something by having Robb declared King in the North while in his mother's house, surrounded by enemies, rather than in his own castle. It means nothing to bear the title without first securing the tangibles that come with it. At that point he was king entirely in name and not at all in deed.

Well what was he supposed to do by staying north of Moat Cailin?

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