North defeat war of five kings

[Angel Eyes]

11 minutes ago, Фейсал said:

Fortify his position. 

True. 

How come no one tries to fortify the Riverlands? Or build bridges so they don't have to cope with the Freys?

[cgrav]

5 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

Well what was he supposed to do by staying north of Moat Cailin?

Not die. As if he was going to retrieve his father with an army. At the time he called banners there was no real military objective in the South. Objectives only materialized as a matter of keeping himself and his army alive, which would have been completely unnecessary if they didn't march in the first place.

But if we do want to presume the inevitability of going south, then I'd say the biggest mistake was flouting his agreement with Walder. Obvious answer, for sure, but it was easily the most consequential decision he made while on campaign.  Walder committed a treason in offering alliance to a rebel, and then received none of the benefit. Robb was insanely short sighted in not realizing that he'd left Walder to the Lions. 

[Angel Eyes]

Just now, cgrav said:

Not die. As if he was going to retrieve his father with an army. At the time he called banners there was no real military objective in the South. Objectives only materialized as a matter of keeping himself and his army alive, which would have been completely unnecessary if they didn't march in the first place.

But if we do want to presume the inevitability of going south, then I'd say the biggest mistake was flouting his agreement with Walder. Obvious answer, for sure, but it was easily the most consequential decision he made while on campaign.  Walder committed a treason in offering alliance to a rebel, and then received none of the benefit. Robb was insanely short sighted in not realizing that he'd left Walder to the Lions. 

So Jeyne Westerling was supposed to be left like chopped liver?

[Фейсал]

Nothing prevented him from taking her as a mistress, to be honest. Maybe a bit shady - but it's happened aplenty before.

[cgrav]

8 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

True. 

How come no one tries to fortify the Riverlands? Or build bridges so they don't have to cope with the Freys?

I was thinking about that a moment ago, and I think it comes down to time. Tywin/Gregor was active in the Riverlands and it would have taken far longer to build a bridge or ferry troops, creating a major vulnerability. He also wanted the Freys troops on his side, as they'd be on his route back north no matter what.

[cgrav]

5 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

So Jeyne Westerling was supposed to be left like chopped liver?

Yes. She was a Lannister banner! Politically speaking, he had no business even glancing at her. Of course he couldn't have known she was Tywin's apparatchik, but he should have understood that his honor was due to his own lords long before Tywin's.

[Philokles]

10 minutes ago, Angel Eyes said:

How come no one tries to fortify the Riverlands? Or build bridges so they don't have to cope with the Freys?

Too many ways in to the Riverlands. Even if you block off all the land routes there are still a tonne of rivers to sail up. Being in the middle of Westeros with no major local power (mainly due to the area’s vulnerability) also makes it the battleground for many different kingdoms - e.g. halfway between the North and Westerlands

6 minutes ago, cgrav said:

Not die. As if he was going to retrieve his father with an army. At the time he called banners there was no real military objective in the South. Objectives only materialized as a matter of keeping himself and his army alive, which would have been completely unnecessary if they didn't march in the first place.

But if we do want to presume the inevitability of going south, then I'd say the biggest mistake was flouting his agreement with Walder. Obvious answer, for sure, but it was easily the most consequential decision he made while on campaign.  Walder committed a treason in offering alliance to a rebel, and then received none of the benefit. Robb was insanely short sighted in not realizing that he'd left Walder to the Lions. 

He had to go south to save face with the Northerners. No way a boy who left his Lord Father to die would have been proclaimed King. It also kept the pressure on the Lannisters. Had there been no threat of repercussions Ned would have stood no chance rather than being unlucky that the irrational Joffrey overode the decisions of wiser heads (though his leg injury probably would have killed him anyway). It also lead to capturing Jaime, who should have been the perfect hostage to exchange for Ned or the girls.

Going south to war with the aim of pressuring the return of Ned makes sense, it was when he died and they kept on fighting that the mission creep began. 

[Angel Eyes]

4 minutes ago, cgrav said:

Yes. She was a Lannister banner! Politically speaking, he had no business even glancing at her. Of course he couldn't have known she was Tywin's apparatchik, but he should have understood that his honor was due to his own lords long before Tywin's.

Perhaps. But that wasn't Robb Stark's way.

[falcotron]

1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

Also, it looks terribly convenient that Stannis is the one who's saying that the Baratheon kids are bastards (and Joffrey is the biggest bastard of all), which makes him the heir. 

Jaime says that, but I don't think anyone who knows anything about Stannis would seriously entertain the idea that he'd make up the bastardy for his own ambition.

In fact, if Stannis came across as someone who actually cared about becoming king and getting some spoils to share about with his friends (like Renly) rather than just figuring out his duty and grimly doing it, he might have gotten more support, rather than less…

But anyway, getting back on topic for the thread: Stannis made some ridiculous mistakes, and it's really his fault he didn't end up allied with Robb. But, granting that, Robb should have seen that an alliance wasn't just a "nice to have", but quite possibly the difference between winning and losing. An alliance with Renly that allows Robb to keep his ground was plausible enough to try for, but with Stannis, not so much. So he should have at least tried to convince his followers that it was worth bending the knee to Stannis if necessary to get an alliance and the guarantees they really cared about.

After all, winning could mean getting justice for Ned and for the Riverlands (it's not like it would be hard to convince Stannis to agree to attaint the Lannisters and execute Tywin and the Mountain, or to include Ned's murder as one of the charges in doing so…), and maybe more beyond that, while losing would at best mean Robb pleads guilty to treason and is executed in exchange for pardons for most of his men.

[falcotron]

9 minutes ago, cgrav said:

Yes. She was a Lannister banner! Politically speaking, he had no business even glancing at her. Of course he couldn't have known she was Tywin's apparatchik, but he should have understood that his honor was due to his own lords long before Tywin's.

There's really nothing politically wrong with boinking her.

Unless you have a personal code of honor that means that boinking her is going to compel you to violate a sworn agreement so you can marry her, in which case it's a different story, but who would have that weird a code of honor and be stupid enough not to take it into account in his decision-making?

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

One of Stannis's mistakes was not explicitly proving that Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen were really Cersei and Jaime's kids. I recall this exchange in the show: 

Robb Stark: "Stannis Baratheon sent ravens to all the high lords of Westeros. King Joffrey Baratheon is neither a true king, nor a true Baratheon. He's your bastard son."
Jaime Lannister: "Well, if that's true, then Stannis is the rightful king. How convenient for him." 

He can't prove they are bastards. Hence why he says nothing at his parlay with Renly. He had been working with Arryn until he died, and then proceeded to do nothing to corroborate with Ned or anything other than amassing troops and seizing ships -- while his brother was still alive! -- until he sent that letter and tried to seize Edric.

[Universal Sword Donor]

26 minutes ago, cgrav said:

Not die. As if he was going to retrieve his father with an army. At the time he called banners there was no real military objective in the South. Objectives only materialized as a matter of keeping himself and his army alive, which would have been completely unnecessary if they didn't march in the first place.

But if we do want to presume the inevitability of going south, then I'd say the biggest mistake was flouting his agreement with Walder. Obvious answer, for sure, but it was easily the most consequential decision he made while on campaign.  Walder committed a treason in offering alliance to a rebel, and then received none of the benefit. Robb was insanely short sighted in not realizing that he'd left Walder to the Lions. 

Received none of the benefit? He wanted a marriage to an LP heir (prestigious marriage and all) and he got a marriage to his LP. Granted it was as recompense for breaking the union in the first place, which was completely moronic by Robb. To say he got nothing is just incorrect. That he got a better offer from the Lannisters later doesn't mean he was completely stiffed by Robb. I doubt the Freys would be nearly as reviled if they just let Robb's army get butchered by Tywin's or Randyll's outside their castle because they refused his crossing.

[falcotron]

18 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Received none of the benefit? He wanted a marriage to an LP heir (prestigious marriage and all) and he got a marriage to his LP. Granted it was as recompense for breaking the union in the first place, which was completely moronic by Robb. To say he got nothing is just incorrect. That he got a better offer from the Lannisters later doesn't mean he was completely stiffed by Robb.

Agreed. Robb's offer was a good one.

But the real problem was that any offer from Robb was almost meaningless at that point. Robb was clearly going to lose the war. His home castle had been sacked and he had no serious plan to recover it and keep prosecuting the war in the Riverlands. Morale was low enough that he'd had to execute one of his top generals. Roose Bolton and some of the Karstarks had already secretly turned cloak, and almost any offer from Tywin would be worth seriously considering.

18 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I doubt the Freys would be nearly as reviled if they just let Robb's army get butchered by Tywin's or Randyll's outside their castle because they refused his crossing.

Definitely.

And that's why Tywin gave him such an outsized offer—so he'd do the dirty work and take the approbation that goes with it.

(Well, that, and also because Tywin generally likes to give out outsized rewards and punishments to build his reputation as the first guy you should think about pleasing or crossing.)

[Angel Eyes]

32 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Received none of the benefit? He wanted a marriage to an LP heir (prestigious marriage and all) and he got a marriage to his LP. Granted it was as recompense for breaking the union in the first place, which was completely moronic by Robb. To say he got nothing is just incorrect. That he got a better offer from the Lannisters later doesn't mean he was completely stiffed by Robb. I doubt the Freys would be nearly as reviled if they just let Robb's army get butchered by Tywin's or Randyll's outside their castle because they refused his crossing.

You know, I believe that even if Robb honored their agreement, Walder would have given Robb one of the ugly Freys just to spite him because Walder's just that petty. Was it explicitly said that Roslin was the daughter promised to Robb? Walder probably got a kick out of Edmure worrying about which one he was going to marry.

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

You know, I believe that even if Robb honored their agreement, Walder would have given Robb one of the ugly Freys just to spite him because Walder's just that petty. Was it explicitly said that Roslin was the daughter promised to Robb? Walder probably got a kick out of Edmure worrying about which one he was going to marry.

No Robb got the pick of the litter per his agreement. Roslin was explicitly mentioned in the arrangement:

“You are too kind, Your Grace. As you accept these terms, I am then instructed to offer Lord Tully the hand of my sister, the Lady Roslin, a maid of sixteen years. Roslin is my lord father’s youngest daughter by Lady Bethany of House Rosby, his sixth wife. She has a gentle nature and a gift for music.”
 

[cgrav]

@Horse of Kent I think we can reasonably disagree on the importance of "saving face", but suffice it to say he was unable to even save his head, let alone face. He'd have been wiser to take some lumps and save the thousands of northern lives. And if the Boltons seemed restless, perhaps Roose could have been the perfect general/emissary to lead a southern excursion. Although I think Roose would have been content to keep his atrocious peace at the Dreadfort.

@Universal Sword Donor The Freys' gain was not simply in attaching a nice title to their family tree, but in securing a strong alliance with a house in another region. Pulling Edmure into the family doesn't change their status all that much - they already "enjoyed" Riverrun's obligation to defend the Twins. Joining to Winterfell with two marriages and a bunch of wards was a serious alliance, likely allowing access to resources (people, money, military support) with less direct dependence on Riverrun. And recall that Walder's big complaint in life is his house's subordination to the Tullies.

The wound stings even more because Robb was crowned in the meantime, so at the time of the transgression he was indeed losing an alliance far more valuable than just giving his liege a daughter. The Westerlings being Lannister bannermen made it yet worse because that's who the Freys had just committed to fight against. And if his new king wouldn't honor a marriage contract, could he be relied upon to help defend the Twins later? 

[Universal Sword Donor]

12 minutes ago, cgrav said:

@Horse of Kent@Universal Sword Donor The Freys' gain was not simply in attaching a nice title to their family tree, but in securing a strong alliance with a house in another region. Pulling Edmure into the family doesn't change their status all that much - they already "enjoyed" Riverrun's obligation to defend the Twins. Joining to Winterfell with two marriages and a bunch of wards was a serious alliance, likely allowing access to resources (people, money, military support) with less direct dependence on Riverrun. And recall that Walder's big complaint in life is his house's subordination to the Tullies.

The wound stings even more because Robb was crowned in the meantime, so at the time of the transgression he was indeed losing an alliance far more valuable than just giving his liege a daughter. The Westerlings being Lannister bannermen made it yet worse because that's who the Freys had just committed to fight against. And if his new king wouldn't honor a marriage contract, could he be relied upon to help defend the Twins later? 

I don't recall Frey once bitching about the oaths to House Tully outside of the initial "price" convo he has with Catelyn.

“Oh, yes, I said some words, but I swore oaths to the crown too, it seems to me. Joffrey’s the king now, and that makes you and your boy and all those fools out there no better than rebels. If I had the sense the gods gave a fish, I’d help the Lannisters boil you all.”

His biggest complaint by far, and once echoed by other Freys, is the lack of respect he gets from everyone. Hell he says it right after he utters the previous, sole quote supporting not wanting to be subservient to the Tullys.

• “Merrett could hardly think for the pounding in his head. “He shamed us, the whole realm was laughing, we had to cleanse the stain on our honor.” His father had said all that and more."
• “Lord Tywin the proud and splendid, Warden of the West, Hand of the King, oh, what a great man that one is, him and his gold this and gold that and lions here and lions there. I’ll wager you, he eats too many beans, he breaks wind just like me, but you’ll never hear him admit it, oh, no. What’s he got to be so puffed up about anyway? ” [...] “If Lord Tywin wants my help, he can bloody well ask for it.”

• “Your lord father did not come to the wedding. An insult, as I see it. Even if he is dying. He never came to my last wedding either. ”

• “Years ago, I went to your father and suggested a match between his son and my daughter. Why not? I had a daughter in mind, sweet girl, only a few years older than Edmure, but if your brother didn’t warm to her, I had others he might have had, young ones, old ones, virgins, widows, whatever he wanted. No, Lord Hoster would not hear of it. Sweet words he gave me, excuses, but what I wanted was to get rid of a daughter.”

• “I was speaking of your sister. I proposed that Lord and Lady Arryn foster two of my grandsons at court, and offered to take their own son to ward here at the Twins.”

•  

  “Well, whoever he was, Lord Arryn wouldn’t have him, or the other one, and I blame your lady sister for that. She frosted up as if I’d suggested selling her boy to a mummer’s show or making a eunuch out of him, and when Lord Arryn said the child was going to Dragonstone to foster with Stannis Baratheon, she stormed off without a word of regrets and all the Hand could give me was apologies. What good are apologies? I ask you.”

•  

   

   

  “I have no doubt that Lord Walder chose his envoys with care,” she replied. “It was a peevish thing to do, a petty sort of revenge, but remember who we are dealing with. The Late Lord Frey, Father used to call him. The man is ill-tempered, envious, and above all prideful.”

• “He is a proud man, and we’ve wounded him,” said Catelyn.

• “I will not command you. Not in this. But if you refuse, Lord Frey will take it for another slight, and any hope of putting this arights will be gone.”

• “The rest sat on their tongues. Only Tywin dared speak against the match. A boy of ten. Father turned as white as mare’s milk, and Walder Frey was quivering.”

•  Stark dishonored us. That is what you northmen had best remember

The Freys of the Crossing were no nobler than the Butterwells. They owned a bridge instead of cows, that was the only difference.[7]

I can keep going but his reticence to serve House Tully is by far a secondary motive than establishing his house as a respected and viable house. Notice how he doesn't push for overlordship of the Riverlands after the RW, or at least doesn't get it. He takes the lesser prize and vengeance. The wound might have stung more since Robb was wearing a crown, but that is something Walder never expected nor could even remotely had guessed. Thinking that the Starks would come to the defense of house Frey over House Tully is naive anyway. Do you pick your in-laws or your actual blood relatives? On top of that, Walder was tying himself closer to House Tully since Tully and Stark would be lockstep with each other and not come to open warfare.

 

 

 

[cgrav]

@Universal Sword DonorI certainly won't deny that pure opportunism was a major factor. And I think we're making one of the same points: Walder felt condescended to by other noble houses, the Tullies especially.

 But I do think he felt genuinely insulted by Robb's marriage, as well as left very vulnerable to the Lannisters. Tywin could have decided to slaughter the Freys for their military support of Robb, especially post-crowning. The risk of picking sides is why he got such a high price from Catelyn. Aside from the surprise marriage, Robb was coming back east diminished, both on the battlefield and in his own now-occupied castle. Walder had every reason to believe that Robb might just retreat north and let the Riverlands defend itself against an emboldened Tywin.

[falcotron]

32 minutes ago, cgrav said:

Walder had every reason to believe that Robb might just retreat north and let the Riverlands defend itself against an emboldened Tywin.

Definitely.

Even if he trusts that Robb does plan to come back south after defeating the Greyjoys, that's not going to be an overnight victory, and who's defending the Riverlands while the army is in the North? He's left the Blackfish's detachment behind, which is fewer men than the Riverlands had in the first place (at minimum, it doesn't include the Freys, or Edmure's personal forces). And, when he finally does come back, it won't be with as many men as he takes across the Neck.

[Blackfish Tully]

14 hours ago, cgrav said:

Really I agree that going south of Moat Cailin was Robb's first and biggest mistake, and all subsequent mistakes were opportune because of that. I think GRRM means to tell us something by having Robb declared King in the North while in his mother's house, surrounded by enemies, rather than in his own castle. It means nothing to bear the title without first securing the tangibles that come with it. At that point he was king entirely in name and not at all in deed.

this completely ignores that fact Robb was winning until the shadowbaby killed Renly . He had driven Tywin out of the Riverlands except for  Harrenhall and crushed several Lannister armies and was rampaging through the Westerlands while Tywin was faced with multiple enemies and facing real bad choices . The shadowbaby changed  everything for Robb but that does not mean he should not have gone south and helped the Riverlands . Walder Frey would never had betrayed Robb as long as Robb was winning. Robb was not surrounded by enemies at his mother's house , his only enemy was Tywin who was at that moment retreating to Harrenhall trying to find a way to fight Renly , Stannis and Robb . 

Ser Kevan did as he was bid. Lord Tywin unrolled the leather, smoothing it flat. "Jaime has left us in a bad way. Roose Bolton and the remnants of his host are north of us. Our enemies hold the Twins and Moat Cailin. Robb Stark sits to the west, so we cannot retreat to Lannisport and the Rock unless we choose to give battle. Jaime is taken, and his army for all purposes has ceased to exist. Thoros of Myr and Beric Dondarrion continue to plague our foraging parties. To our east we have the Arryns, Stannis Baratheon sits on Dragonstone, and in the south Highgarden and Storm's End are calling their banners."

Tyrion smiled crookedly. "Take heart, Father. At least Rhaegar Targaryen is still dead."