Rocket Man vs. Orang-Utan: Korean Krisis

[DMC]

On 9/27/2017 at 5:18 PM, Werthead said:

As for China's view on this, they have a sliding scale of preferences. Their #1 preference is a North Korea which follows their model, liberalises its economy in a similar way and becomes a trading partner that China can make money out of whilst continuing to act as a bulwark against South Korea. The continuation of the pre-nukes status quo is also probably acceptable. A Korean Peninsula reunited under South Korea's rule (with an effective US presence) is highly undesirable, but is probably preferable to other outcomes, especially if SK takes the economic hit for paying for reunification more than China and if a deal is worked out where American forces leave the Korean Peninsula. A unified Korea could be a useful trading partner for China, but it could also be a dangerous rival as part of a US-allied bloc in the region alongside Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines.

At the bottom of the list of China's preferences is either a military confrontation or an outright war with the United States, where the US would take advantage of the situation to wipe out China's navy and its new bases in the South China Sea, and of course would risk going nuclear. North Korea is very definitely not worth that danger to China.

I think you're grossly underestimating China's interest in maintaining the status quo, or at least against allowing a US-backed reunion of the Korean peninsula.  This is plainly the reasoning for their stated posture - they will back the DPRK in the event of the US strikes first (which would most likely be a unilateral action), but not if DPRK strikes first (which would mean the international community would be firmly on the US' side).  Of course there is no chance China wants to engage in a direct military confrontation with the US, sure, but they would happily engage in a proxy war if we took the actions being discussed here.  One would think by now the US would understand the dangers of an insurgency following the shock and awe - especially when the insurgency is backed by one of our main geopolitical foes.  Let alone what China can and may be willing to do in myriad other forms of warfare.

On 9/27/2017 at 0:08 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Sorry for not noticing your admirable self control before you had to point it out to me.

Apology not accepted.  It's been quite the ordeal.

[Werthead]

Quote

 

One would think by now the US would understand the dangers of an insurgency following the shock and awe - especially when the insurgency is backed by one of our main geopolitical foes.

 

The US military, I believe, understands this. Trump, on the other hand, neither understands nor cares one whit. That is where the danger arises.

[DMC]

11 hours ago, Werthead said:

The US military, I believe, understands this. Trump, on the other hand, neither understands nor cares one whit. That is where the danger arises.

Fair point.  My security blanket is Kelly, Mattis, and McMaster.  I don't care about the bed sores, I will stay ensconced.

[Werthead]

The BBC asked some North Korean defectors about life in their homeland and their reaction to living outside the country. Very short, but poignant.

[drawkcabi]

Came across this video of an old MadTV sketch today. Best guess is it's from around 2003-06~ish

But it's downright creepy.

 

 

[Crazydog7]

Why has no one posted this yet? 

 

[Week]

Randomly (because I forgot) the Olympics start in South Korea in 100 days. Seems ripe for a time for NK to remind the world stage of their presence. At the same time, it would certainly also be a risky time to incur the ire of the global community so directly.

[Kalbear]

Another ICBM launch. This one significantly higher than previous ones and significantly more accurate, or at least behaving like it was. 

[GAROVORKIN]

6 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Another ICBM launch. This one significantly higher than previous ones and significantly more accurate, or at least behaving like it was. 

So much for Diplomacy.  What's to be done now? 

[Horza]

Good diplomacy?

Cos this year all that's come out of the US is crazily unrealistic preconditions for talks backed up with a barrage of posturing.

EDIT: also, you know how two months ago I was saying how if everyone kept insisting that North Korea needed to test a warhead on a missile for their program to be considered credible, then they would adopt that yardstick?

Well guess what:
 

Quote

On Wednesday, a North Korea official reiterated comments made to CNN in October that there would be no diplomacy until the country has proven its nuclear capabilities.

 

The official added the two steps needed to achieve this goal were the "testing of a long-range ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile)" capable of reaching the US, followed by an above-ground nuclear detonation.

 

"Before we can engage in diplomacy with the Trump administration, we want to send a clear message that the DPRK has a reliable defensive and offensive capability to counter any aggression from the United States," the official said, referring to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

 

[Werthead]

Quote

 

So much for Diplomacy.  What's to be done now?

 

"Better diplomacy", as mentioned above; accepting a nuclear North Korea as the status quo going forwards; or military action.

All three have major pluses and minuses (see the past dozen iterations of this thread), with military action being the least productive but the most likely to actually materially change the situation (and possibly large chunks of the Korean landscape).

Something Trump needs to do is STFU about "we'll take care of it" and stop insulting Kim Jong-un every five seconds. It's not getting anyone anywhere and it just makes the US look weak as fuck when they say "We're handling this!" and then they turn around and start begging China to help them out.

[Werthead]

A good summary of the dangers of current rising tensions.

There's so much other shit going on that North Korea keeps being pushed off the headlines by other stuff, but that isn't stopping what appears to be a dangerous build-up of tensions and military force and capability. The United States has three carrier groups in the region, plus the enormous amount of airpower they have in South Korea, Guam and Japan anyway (plus the bombers based in the US itself which can reach North Korea in a few hours). The US has overwhelming capability which they could launch very quickly. The North Korean strategic doctrine is based on retaining first strike capability. If they feel the US might launch a strike on their artillery and nuclear sites which would dramatically reduce the effectiveness of their deterrent, they may feel compelled to "use it or lose it".

It's clear that Tillerson regards the military option as non-viable and wants to explore negotiations, even dropping pre-conditions for talks, and that's been backed by South Korea and China, but that's falling on deaf ears in Washington and apparently Pyongyang. Pyongyang seems to have concluded that it needs to demonstrate an inarguable nuclear strike capability, so they're next move will likely be an atmospheric test. But they need to make sure that such a test is successful (and doesn't, for example, go off course and nuke Japan by accident) and they have to consider that such a test would itself trigger an American military response.

Trump, I think, wants to go all-in militarily. He thinks it would show him as a tough man and send messages around the world that the US isn't to be threatened or messed with. It would also, conveniently, give him political options on the home front to deal with his issues there ("suspending" an FBI investigation or Mueller "until the end of hostilities as the American people need to be united in this time of war"). McMaster seems to be coming round to that viewpoint as well, but Mattis seems to be more cautious.

To de-escalate the situation I think North Korea needs to accept Tillerson's offer of talks. The second North Korea sits down at the negotiating table, it becomes harder to launch military action and justify it.

[GAROVORKIN]

One wonders what the Chinese really think about Kim's personal survival. I think Being  wouldn't be too disappointed to see one of his  Generals or someone  his cabinet with military  support , move against Kim . That China they get to keep the Koreas separate which is what they really want . Whoever succeeds Kim might be more amenable  to Nuclear Disarmament in exchange for economic aid. 

[TheKitttenGuard]

Arise thee...

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Trump agreed this week to meet with Kim for talks by the end of May, which would make Trump the first sitting U.S. president to meet with a leader of North Korea.

...

The White House has sought to cast the announced meeting between Trump and Kim as tentative, despite Trump maintaining it will happen.

White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Friday that there would be no meeting unless Pyongyang takes "concrete actions" showing North Korean officials are serious about reducing tensions.

"We’ve accepted the invitation to talk based on them following through with concrete actions on the promises that they’ve made," she said at a press briefing.

North Korea has not made any public statements about the meeting with Trump. Those messages have been communicated through South Korea, leaving the Trump administration to verify the offer.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/377735-trump-china-appreciates-me-meeting-kim-over-ominous-alternative

 

So, North Korea disarm Nuclear Weapons and Trump gets a Noble Prize. It will super awesome.

Should there be real concern that The President of The United States Donald Trump was announcing some timeline that later coming in with conditions?

This is a real break with precedent on what is long Bi-Partisan (with its internal partisanship) approach. Yeah awesome and we have on tape President Donald Trump making an announcement, with the needed adulation, and now equivocation and statement that the President of The United State does not mean what he said.

[DireWolfSpirit]

From the WaPo, imagining this thing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/this-is-how-nuclear-war-with-north-korea-would-unfold/2017/12/08/4e298a28-db07-11e7-a841-2066faf731ef_story.html?utm_term=.d3ea281e696d

[TheKitttenGuard]

Is North Korea getting rid of its Nukes for a drop of all sanction the only goal of the meeting. Are Re-unification and removal of U.S forces within discussion?

[Lordsteve666]

Looks to me like reunification is a key thing here, assuming NK is sincere in its wishes to go through with things. The whole point of the nukes seems to have been to push the US into a negotiation of sorts, the only other option being an act of aggression against what amounts to a third world country. It’s worked well if they are able to get sanctions lifted and start working towards some form of normality I’d say. But a lot rests on what Prez Orange Turd does in a the situation. That’s how things get screwed up I’d guess. 

[Kalbear]

As I've said before, just guarantee to pay Kim something like 2 billion dollars and set him up for life somewhere, give him a secret service detail and let the country unify. 

[DMC]

4 hours ago, Kalbear said:

As I've said before, just guarantee to pay Kim something like 2 billion dollars and set him up for life somewhere, give him a secret service detail and let the country unify. 

Quote

Josh Lyman: You know, can I say this? Why don't we just give the $60 billion to North Korea in exchange for not bombing us?

President Bartlet: It's almost hard to believe that you're not on the National Security Council.

Josh Lyman: I know, I feel like they're missing an important voice.

 

[GAROVORKIN]

4 hours ago, Lordsteve666 said:

Looks to me like reunification is a key thing here, assuming NK is sincere in its wishes to go through with things. The whole point of the nukes seems to have been to push the US into a negotiation of sorts, the only other option being an act of aggression against what amounts to a third world country. It’s worked well if they are able to get sanctions lifted and start working towards some form of normality I’d say. But a lot rests on what Prez Orange Turd does in a the situation. That’s how things get screwed up I’d guess. 

The problem is that reunification of the two Koreas with their  differing  polical systems is unlikely .  If Kim ended up  in charge of reunified Korean Peninsula, he would quickly confiscate all the private corporations for the state and he would crush the political establishment in the south .