Catalun independence vote

[Tijgy]

11 minutes ago, maarsen said:

Ever hear of the phrase sovereignty-association? We had that in Canada during the run up to a vote for an independent Quebec. If the referendum was passed, Quebec would be sovereign but still part of the Canadian federation.

No. It sounds like confederalism. 

But Puigdemont clearly declared the independence ... but asked the parliament to suspend it because he (or rather the rest of the world) wants dialogue. 

 

[Meera of Tarth]

1 hour ago, maarsen said:

Ever hear of the phrase sovereignty-association? We had that in Canada during the run up to a vote for an independent Quebec. If the referendum was passed, Quebec would be sovereign but still part of the Canadian federation.

In the non-binding referendum of 2014 Catalonia asked two questions:

Do you want Catalonia to be an State?

If so, do you want this State to be independent?

The results/consequences were:

• 1. 80%of the cast votes supported the Yes-Yes option, 10.1% the Yes-No, 4.5% the No option. Turn-out of 37% since Spain said that that referendum was unconstitutional. The thing is that more than 80% of people wanted it to be an State, and the majority it to be independent.

However, given the turnout was not so high, we don't know if there had been more Yes-No votes for instance, or if they had been different if it has been binding or, at least, non declared unconstitutional by Spain.

Spain did not get the message (they never get it, in fact, not  even before after the massive demonstrations of every year). On the contrary, they decided to call the Constitutional Court, as always bc that's how they "resolve" political problems..... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_self-determination_referendum,_2014#Results 

 

• 2. Disqualification of the President of Catalonia (the one of 2014) and two seniors, and now they have a few days to pay 2-5 milion of euros (that decision was from this Month) or their assets will be seized.

At that time they (Cat.Government) were considering Catalonia to be a Federal State, or an associated State to Spain, or an Independent State.

 

The "problem" is that Spain doesn't even allow Catalonia to have more self-government in terms of language or finances, and only certain people from the Socialists (especially the Catalan ones) would like to discuss changing the State of Spain into a Federation of Federal States.

Also, there would also be the fact that even if the Spanish Socialists convinced Rajoy to discuss the new system (extremely unlikely because the Spanish Socialists don't like to discuss that as much as the Catalan socialists and also because Rajoy is like a stone.) they'd likely not allow Catalonia to be "assymmetrical" in contrast to the other 14-16 possible federal states. (Catalonia and the other historical nations  within Spain). 

Meanwhile, the Basque Country and Navarre do have the greatest degree of self-government while many Catalans have felt too humiliated after the Statute cuts (that left it like the one of 1979 after its approval and the disqualifications of the former President and other issues) that nowadays are only into independence, making the problem even bigger than it used to be for Spain. 

So basically, they can't really discuss anything because the two parts are so different (Independence vs Spain is only one Nation and the Law and Police will do everything that it is necessary,) and while Catalonia is still asking for dialogue, Spain refuses to negotiate anything, even if they are asked to do so from outside Spain.

[Mentat]

6 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

The "problem" is that Spain doesn't even allow Catalonia to have more self-government in terms of language or finances, and only certain people from the Socialists (especially the Catalan ones) would like to discuss changing the State of Spain into a Federation of Federal States.

Also, there would also be the fact that even if the Spanish Socialists convinced Rajoy to discuss the new system (extremely unlikely because the Spanish Socialists don't like to discuss that as much as the Catalan socialists and also because Rajoy is like a stone.) they'd likely not allow Catalonia to be "assymmetrical" in contrast to the other 14-16 possible federal states. (Catalonia and the other historical nations  within Spain). 

Meanwhile, the Basque Country and Navarre do have the greatest degree of self-government while many Catalans have felt too humiliated after the Statute cuts (that left it like the one of 1979 after its approval and the disqualifications of the former President and other issues) that nowadays are only into independence, making the problem even bigger than it used to be for Spain. 

So basically, they can't really discuss anything because the two parts are so different (Independence vs Spain is only one Nation and the Law and Police will do everything that it is necessary,) and while Catalonia is still asking for dialogue, Spain refuses to negotiate anything, even if they are asked to do so from outside Spain.

I think part of the problem is that, in order to enter a dialogue with Spain that allowed Catalonia more self-government in terms of language or finances, or even Spain becoming a Federal State, Catalonia would have to do two things:

1) Wait for a better Spanish government. I'm personally embarrassed by Rajoy, and I almost feel the need to apologize for him... but he's on his last legs. If the Catalans can pressure PNV (and I think this is possible), it should be relatively easy to topple his government. A new, better, left wing government could arise. The current leader of the Socialists favours a Federal State (I agree that would be a hard sell to some elements in his party, but that's on him). If he needs the votes of Catalan nationalists and of Podemos to form a government, then you can be assured that's going to be an easy government to negotiate with.

2) Tone down its demands. More devolved government or a Federal State may be viable options to achieve through dialogue and negotiation... but independence really isn't. No Spanish government I can imagine will agree to that. A "We might be willing to stay as part of Spain if..." declaration by Puigdemont would do wonders for dialogue.

Currently, Catalonia doesn't want to do either of these things. Puigdemont's calls for dialogue and negotiations yesterday seem to me as if they had two goals:

1) Appearing reasonable and moderate to international players.

2) Win time.

I don't think he, or anyone in his team, have any expectations that there will actually be a negotiation or dialogue, nor are they willing to do what would need to be done for there to be one.

Out of interest, why is it important to you that, if there were a Spanish Federal State, Catalonia was asymmetrical compared to other regions (like Valencia)?

[baxus]

17 hours ago, Alarich II said:

There are many rights that are touched from the EU perspective: First of all the 4 EU freedoms (free movement of persons, capital, goods and services) do not apply to Catalonia, once they leave the EU. So if. for example I have a small Company that sells stuff out of Barcelona into the whole EU, I will now have to deal with tariffs and customs and of course I have to deal with currency exchange. If I have bought a house (as EU citizen) in Catalonia as my old age retreat I may have problems getting my pensions paid out there. If live in France and work in Spain, now Catalonia, I don't even know if this will be possible in the future (and vice versa).

I mean what is the advantage of having an independent Catalan state or Catalan citizenship if most, if not all, freedoms within Europe are tied to having a second (Spanish) passport? Even if we assume that Spain would allow dual nationality for the first generation (second would already be problematic), it seems to me that for most Catalans it would make little sense to give up their Spanish passports which makes me wonder what makes independence so attractive in the first place?

First of all, I think it would not take that long for Catalonia to become a EU member and its citizens (ones without dual Spanish citizenship, at least) to regain all the benefits they currently have as Spanish citizens. I mean, Catalonia obviously meets all the standards for membership. The only problem I can foresee regarding their re-application for EU membership is whether or not the Spain would block them.

Either way, if Catalonia does declare independence from Spain at some point in the future, it won't be effective immediately. There will need to be a period for agreeing on a whole lot of stuff with Spain, passing quite a few laws that would need passing/updating in Catalan parliament, define border crossings from both Catalan and Spanish/French sides etc.

As a EU pensioner you would have no problem having your pension paid out in a non EU country. My father is one of the people in that situation and is being paid his pension regularly for years now. It took a bit more paperwork and all that, but it works.

Second generation would be able to get their Spanish nationality based on the fact their parents have Spanish nationality. Provided that Spain allowed dual citizenship, but if not, then no Spanish citizen would be allowed to have any other citizenship, not just Catalan.

Tariffs and customs are a drag, but there are trade agreements that can simplify the whole process (see Norway and Switzerland, for example). As for currency, there are quite a few EU countries that don't use Euros and are not doing that bad at all.

[Alarich II]

54 minutes ago, baxus said:

First of all, I think it would not take that long for Catalonia to become a EU member and its citizens (ones without dual Spanish citizenship, at least) to regain all the benefits they currently have as Spanish citizens.

What makes you think that Spain will agree to that, especially under the current MP? The EU members have to agree unanimous in the European Council to grant status as candidate for accession: Spain can therefore nip any plans for Catalan accession to the EU in the bud.

As for the rest: the idea, that you can leave the EU but not really leave and instead retain all those priviledges and rights you've enjoyed before is naive. It won't work for the UK and much less for a much smaller province. As I've said before: the EU is not interested in having the territorial integrity of it's member states questioned; leaving aside the question wether Catalonia has the (moral) right to secede from Spain or the Catalans in general have the right to secede from whatever European state they live in (France, Spain, Italy) and carve out another state in Europe, it makes no sense for the EU to support this politically. As we are speaking, businesses are leaving Catalonia, because of the threat of leaving the EU, more will probably follow suit, simply because no one, least of all the Catalan government, can guarantee them anyhing that looks like economic or political stability in this region. Those who are really screwed are the Spanish citizens who cannot simply leave.

[Alarich II]

14 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

I don't think there are advantages in thr short and mid term due to the way economics and politics work. (this in terms of thr new State). But as Catalonia is economically viable, there would be advantages in thr long term. As a whole, everythibg is ubcertain and I coulf be wrong in the mid and long term consequences. It could br even better or even worse. Uncertain.

So, what are the advantages in the long term?

[Mentat]

21 minutes ago, baxus said:

First of all, I think it would not take that long for Catalonia to become a EU member and its citizens (ones without dual Spanish citizenship, at least) to regain all the benefits they currently have as Spanish citizens. I mean, Catalonia obviously meets all the standards for membership. The only problem I can foresee regarding their re-application for EU membership is whether or not the Spain would block them.

Either way, if Catalonia does declare independence from Spain at some point in the future, it won't be effective immediately. There will need to be a period for agreeing on a whole lot of stuff with Spain, passing quite a few laws that would need passing/updating in Catalan parliament, define border crossings from both Catalan and Spanish/French sides etc.

As a EU pensioner you would have no problem having your pension paid out in a non EU country. My father is one of the people in that situation and is being paid his pension regularly for years now. It took a bit more paperwork and all that, but it works.

Second generation would be able to get their Spanish nationality based on the fact their parents have Spanish nationality. Provided that Spain allowed dual citizenship, but if not, then no Spanish citizen would be allowed to have any other citizenship, not just Catalan.

Tariffs and customs are a drag, but there are trade agreements that can simplify the whole process (see Norway and Switzerland, for example). As for currency, there are quite a few EU countries that don't use Euros and are not doing that bad at all.

On your first two paragraphs: Realistically, it would take at least the better part of a decade, from the date in which Spain actually recognizes Catalan independence (otherwise the EU would be unlikely to enter any negotiations, since any possible deal would just be vetoed by Spain).

Again, this period of agreeing things with Spain requires Spain to acknowledge Catalan independence. France seems to have Spain's back in this right now too. I guess French support could be eroded if Spain continues to make political mistakes or if the French political landscape changes. If Spain doesn't recognize independence, it will see said declaration as nothing short of a crime (sedition, rebellion or what have you), and act accordingly. We're likely to see this play out in the very near future.

On your third paragraph: I frequently sign 'proof of life' documents for retired Spaniards who worked during some years in France (mainly as agricultural labour) and are thus entitled to get some of their pension from France. France regularly makes sure these people are still alive in order to prevent fraud.

As long as Spain doesn't recognize Catalan independence, it will consider (and hopefully treat) all Catalans as its own nationals. If it ever does recognize said independence, it will need to reform its Constitution and enter negotiations with the newborn Catalan republic. These negotiations will be complex (and maybe even more so if the secession is an ugly business as it's looking to be right now). They will surely address all matters of nationality. Catalonia and Spain may reach a dual nationality deal (though this is unlikely to extend to everybody) or they may just agree that, from then on, Catalan citizens be just Catalan and Spanish citizens be just Spanish. Just because Spain doesn't reach a dual nationality deal with Catalonia doesn't mean it can't reach it with other countries (it currently has many such deals standing, mainly with Latin American countries).

On your fourth paragraph: Trade agreements will also require recognition of their independence. Catalonia's main trading partners are all EU countries, so they will probably need a trading agreement with the EU first (EFTA has been talked about on Catalan radio stations). Leaving the euro and no longer being under the wing of the ECB will likely have a grievous economic cost for Catalonia during the first few years of its independence. We're not looking at a British pound scenario, but at a Grexit scenario. Catalonia would have to start printing it's own currency in a situation of deep economic uncertainty (it's banking situation is also less than stellar right now; it doesn't currently have a central bank and the two main banks operating in Catalonia have just left because political uncertainty was damaging their stock values).

[baxus]

2 hours ago, Alarich II said:

What makes you think that Spain will agree to that, especially under the current MP? The EU members have to agree unanimous in the European Council to grant status as candidate for accession: Spain can therefore nip any plans for Catalan accession to the EU in the bud.

As for the rest: the idea, that you can leave the EU but not really leave and instead retain all those priviledges and rights you've enjoyed before is naive. It won't work for the UK and much less for a much smaller province. As I've said before: the EU is not interested in having the territorial integrity of it's member states questioned; leaving aside the question wether Catalonia has the (moral) right to secede from Spain or the Catalans in general have the right to secede from whatever European state they live in (France, Spain, Italy) and carve out another state in Europe, it makes no sense for the EU to support this politically. As we are speaking, businesses are leaving Catalonia, because of the threat of leaving the EU, more will probably follow suit, simply because no one, least of all the Catalan government, can guarantee them anyhing that looks like economic or political stability in this region. Those who are really screwed are the Spanish citizens who cannot simply leave.

Yes, Spain can deny Catalonia EU membership. It's just that Spain would have no reason to do it if they already recognized Catalan independence, wouldn't it? And that was the hypothetical situation I was talking about.

No one said that Catalonia would get to keep all the rights and privileges of EU members they have now but that it wouldn't be that big of a deal to reinstate most of those. Catalan people would get to keep their Spanish citizenship (once again, a hypothetical situation that Catalonia and Spain both allow dual citizenships) so on a personal level they would in fact keep all the rights and privileges. When it came to business and government issues, they would encounter some bumps in the road, but most of those would be overcome pretty soon.

No one said that leaving a EU member country would go without any problems. That's why there was a referendum about it, to see if people are willing to go through those changes and the problems those changes would bring.

2 hours ago, Mentat said:

On your first two paragraphs: Realistically, it would take at least the better part of a decade, from the date in which Spain actually recognizes Catalan independence (otherwise the EU would be unlikely to enter any negotiations, since any possible deal would just be vetoed by Spain).

Again, this period of agreeing things with Spain requires Spain to acknowledge Catalan independence. France seems to have Spain's back in this right now too. I guess French support could be eroded if Spain continues to make political mistakes or if the French political landscape changes. If Spain doesn't recognize independence, it will see said declaration as nothing short of a crime (sedition, rebellion or what have you), and act accordingly. We're likely to see this play out in the very near future.

On your third paragraph: I frequently sign 'proof of life' documents for retired Spaniards who worked during some years in France (mainly as agricultural labour) and are thus entitled to get some of their pension from France. France regularly makes sure these people are still alive in order to prevent fraud.

As long as Spain doesn't recognize Catalan independence, it will consider (and hopefully treat) all Catalans as its own nationals. If it ever does recognize said independence, it will need to reform its Constitution and enter negotiations with the newborn Catalan republic. These negotiations will be complex (and maybe even more so if the secession is an ugly business as it's looking to be right now). They will surely address all matters of nationality. Catalonia and Spain may reach a dual nationality deal (though this is unlikely to extend to everybody) or they may just agree that, from then on, Catalan citizens be just Catalan and Spanish citizens be just Spanish. Just because Spain doesn't reach a dual nationality deal with Catalonia doesn't mean it can't reach it with other countries (it currently has many such deals standing, mainly with Latin American countries).

On your fourth paragraph: Trade agreements will also require recognition of their independence. Catalonia's main trading partners are all EU countries, so they will probably need a trading agreement with the EU first (EFTA has been talked about on Catalan radio stations). Leaving the euro and no longer being under the wing of the ECB will likely have a grievous economic cost for Catalonia during the first few years of its independence. We're not looking at a British pound scenario, but at a Grexit scenario. Catalonia would have to start printing it's own currency in a situation of deep economic uncertainty (it's banking situation is also less than stellar right now; it doesn't currently have a central bank and the two main banks operating in Catalonia have just left because political uncertainty was damaging their stock values).

"A better part of the decade" is not a long time, generally speaking.

Once again, I was talking about a hypothetical situation where Spain recognizes Catalonia's independence.

If that's not the case, I agree the situation could become very complicated very quickly and maybe escalate to civil war (an extreme case, but definitely not unheard of) so that could drag the whole situation for decades.

I don't know how Spain is organized internally when it comes to citizenship. My experience is with former Yugoslavia, where everyone was given a citizenship of a specific republic based on place of birth or parents' citizenship, depending on the law that was in effect at the time of one's birth. For example, my sister and I have the same parents and were born in the same maternity ward, but my birth citizenship was Serbian and hers was Croatian (because our parents were both born in Croatia). That system came pretty handy when Yugoslavia was breaking apart a bit later on. Just for the record, all countries that were a part of Yugoslavia allow dual citizenship, except for Montenegro. The point I'm trying to make is that if there is no such distinction for Spanish citizenship, there would be no way of stripping people of their nationality. Even if there was a mechanism for doing all that, there would still be a way for people to get Spanish citizenship status. I mean, unless Spain is different from all other countries in the world, I could come to Spain now and live there for a certain period of time (usually 5 years, but it depends from country to country) and become eligible to apply for citizenship (some countries require language tests and/or some other tests). The same way every single Catalan that lived in Spain for that long (which would be almost every single person that's 5 years old or older, or whatever that period is) would be able to apply for citizenship.

[Alarich II]

12 minutes ago, baxus said:

Yes, Spain can deny Catalonia EU membership. It's just that Spain would have no reason to do it if they already recognized Catalan independence, wouldn't it? And that was the hypothetical situation I was talking about.

All I'm saying is that the hypothetical situation you are talking about is very unlikely to actually become reality.

Of course: if Spain just accepts Catalan independence and if it recognizes a Catalan state and if this Catalan state sorts out the issue of Catalans living in Spain, Italy and France with regards to their independence-aspirations and if this Catalan state is officially recognized by the other EU members and if this Catalan state can comply with all the other requirements to join the EU, then it will probably not take very long.

I just don't think this scenario survives the first two conditions.

 

[Meera of Tarth]

5 hours ago, Mentat said:

I think part of the problem is that, in order to enter a dialogue with Spain that allowed CataCatalonia more self-government in terms of language or finances, o Spain becoming a State, Catalonia would have to do two things:

1) Wait for a better Spanish government. I'm personally embarrassed by Rajoy, and I almost feel the need to apologize for him... but he's on his last legs. If the Catalans can pressure PNV (and I think this is possible), it should be relatively easy to topple his government. A new, better, left wing government could arise. The current leader of the Socialists favours a Federal State (I agree that would be a hard sell to some elements in his party, but that's on him). If he needs the votes of Catalan nationalists and of Podemos to form a government, then you can be assured that's going to be an easy government to negotiate with.

2) Tone down its demands. More devolved government or a Federal State may be viable options to achieve through dialogue and negotiation... but independence really isn't. No Spanish government I can imagine will agree to that. A "We might be willing to stay as part of Spain if..." declaration by Puigdemont would do wonders for dialogue.

Currently, Catalonia doesn't want to do either of these things. Puigdemont's calls for dialogue and negotiations yesterday seem to me as if they had two goals:

1) Appearing reasonable and moderate to international players.

2) Win time.

I don't think he, or anyone in his team, have any expectations that there will actually be a negotiation or dialogue, nor are they willing to do what would need to be done for there to be one.

Out of interest, why is it important to you that, if there were a Spanish Federal State, Catalonia was asymmetrical compared to other regions (like Valencia)?

That is what they have said. Federal states for everyone would result in almost the same problemof nowadays. Catalonia Catal

Shoukd have the samr degree of self government of the Basqurs  or at least the restorjation of the Statute. I SUPPOSE many people would agree with that, although it is difficult to know (I thi

[Meera of Tarth]

3 hours ago, Alarich II said:

So, what are the advantages in the long term?

Economical ones, beung able to use 100x100 of the money they collect. 

[Meera of Tarth]

39 minutes ago, baxus said:

Yes, Spain can deny Catalonia EU membership. It's just that Spain would have no reason to do it if they already recognized Catalan independence, wouldn't it? And that was the hypothetical situation I was talking about.

No one said that Catalonia would get to keep all the rights and privileges of EU members they have now but that it wouldn't be that big of a deal to reinstate most of those. Catalan people would get to keep their Spanish citizenship (once again, a hypothetical situation that Catalonia and Spain both allow dual citizenships) so on a personal level they would in fact keep all the rights and privileges. When it came to business and government issues, they would encounter some bumps in the road, but most of those would be overcome pretty soon.

No one said that leaving a EU member country would go without any problems. That's why there was a referendum about it, to see if people are willing to go through those changes and the problems those changes would bring.

"A better part of the decade" is not a long time, generally speaking.

Once again, I was talking about a hypothetical situation where Spain recognizes Catalonia's independence.

If that's not the case, I agree the situation could become very complicated very quickly and maybe escalate to civil war (an extreme case, but definitely not unheard of) so that could drag the whole situation for decades.

I don't know how Spain is organized internally when it comes to citizenship. My experience is with former Yugoslavia, where everyone was given a citizenship of a specific republic based on place of birth or parents' citizenship, depending on the law that was in effect at the time of one's birth. For example, my sister and I have the same parents and were born in the same maternity ward, but my birth citizenship was Serbian and hers was Croatian (because our parents were both born in Croatia). That system came pretty handy when Yugoslavia was breaking apart a bit later on. Just for the record, all countries that were a part of Yugoslavia allow dual citizenship, except for Montenegro. The point I'm trying to make is that if there is no such distinction for Spanish citizenship, there would be no way of stripping people of their nationality. Even if there was a mechanism for doing all that, there would still be a way for people to get Spanish citizenship status. I mean, unless Spain is different from all other countries in the world, I could come to Spain now and live there for a certain period of time (usually 5 years, but it depends from country to country) and become eligible to apply for citizenship (some countries require language tests and/or some other tests). The same way every single Catalan that lived in Spain for that long (which would be almost every single person that's 5 years old or older, or whatever that period is) would be able to apply for citizenship.

Cat gov sai they would allow both nationalities and Spain allows that with other countries, even from non Eu but Europeans ones. Furthetmore it is a birth riggt

 Theu Should change thr Constitution to change that. 

[Meera of Tarth]

I think it is in the Constitution,  not sure?

[Mentat]

9 minutes ago, baxus said:

"A better part of the decade" is not a long time, generally speaking.

Once again, I was talking about a hypothetical situation where Spain recognizes Catalonia's independence.

If that's not the case, I agree the situation could become very complicated very quickly and maybe escalate to civil war (an extreme case, but definitely not unheard of) so that could drag the whole situation for decades.

I don't know how Spain is organized internally when it comes to citizenship. My experience is with former Yugoslavia, where everyone was given a citizenship of a specific republic based on place of birth or parents' citizenship, depending on the law that was in effect at the time of one's birth. For example, my sister and I have the same parents and were born in the same maternity ward, but my birth citizenship was Serbian and hers was Croatian (because our parents were both born in Croatia). That system came pretty handy when Yugoslavia was breaking apart a bit later on. Just for the record, all countries that were a part of Yugoslavia allow dual citizenship, except for Montenegro. The point I'm trying to make is that if there is no such distinction for Spanish citizenship, there would be no way of stripping people of their nationality. Even if there was a mechanism for doing all that, there would still be a way for people to get Spanish citizenship status. I mean, unless Spain is different from all other countries in the world, I could come to Spain now and live there for a certain period of time (usually 5 years, but it depends from country to country) and become eligible to apply for citizenship (some countries require language tests and/or some other tests). The same way every single Catalan that lived in Spain for that long (which would be almost every single person that's 5 years old or older, or whatever that period is) would be able to apply for citizenship.

I really don't think there will be a civil war. Catalonia doesn't have a standing army or the means to raise one, and Catalans are peace-loving people. If Spain intervenes military in Catalonia, the most likely scenario is the military acting in support of the police. Spain will say they're there to keep the peace and ensure safety while Catalans will say they're an invading force that legitimises their right to self determination. Demonstrations will be held and the military will be booed, but if they keep their cool (and I'm sure they'll have orders of engagement saying not to open fire unless fired upon), I don't think things will go too far. Using military intervention as a means to elicit international sympathy and support will almost certainly be the name of the Catalan game.

As I said, all Catalans will remain Spanish citizens as long as Spain doesn't recognize a Catalan independence. If it eventually does, then constitutional amendments and negotiations with the Catalan republic will be necessary. Some kind of agreement will eventually be reached which will clarify the numerous nationality issues existing between both states that have been part of the same country for so long (maybe in a way similar to Yugoslavia or maybe in a different way), but it's far too soon to say what this agreement could be. I don't think it's inconceivable that some people be required to choose if they want to be Catalan or Spanish. If they choose to be Catalan, Spain would simply notify border control agencies that said their Spanish passports are no longer valid and not issue any new ones. The Catalan republic would then provide these people with new passports to reflect their new nationality. Anyone living legally for a number of years in Spain can indeed apply for Spanish nationality, and again, the statute of Catalan people living in Spain (and Spanish people living in Catalonia) would be addressed in said agreements. What seems slightly disingenuous to me is saying that if Catalonia effectively secedes from Spain, everyone in Catalonia would still be Spanish. Spanish nationality comes with a series of rights, which Spain couldn't possibly afford to extend to so many foreign nationals paying taxes elsewhere.

[Alarich II]

40 minutes ago, Meera of Tarth said:

Economical ones, beung able to use 100x100 of the money they collect. 

So, this is about the money.

Of course the question is: will 100% be more or less than whatever net percentage remains now? I don't think that the current regional government is doing Catalonia any great economic favours, probably not even in the long run.

But the good news is: as long as it's only about money, you can probably negotiate some kind of solution.

[baxus]

1 hour ago, Alarich II said:

All I'm saying is that the hypothetical situation you are talking about is very unlikely to actually become reality.

Of course: if Spain just accepts Catalan independence and if it recognizes a Catalan state and if this Catalan state sorts out the issue of Catalans living in Spain, Italy and France with regards to their independence-aspirations and if this Catalan state is officially recognized by the other EU members and if this Catalan state can comply with all the other requirements to join the EU, then it will probably not take very long.

I just don't think this scenario survives the first two conditions.

If this whole situation does come to Catalonia declaring independence at some point in the future (hopefully after a referendum with no police involvement and close to a 100% voter turnout), what could Spain actually do to prevent it? Force Catalan people into submission? That's never worked and it would never work.

Bear in mind that I'm not talking about legality here, I'm talking about reality. There is nothing legal regarding Kosovo's independence and yet for all intents and purposes they are independent. There was no referendum or anything, the will of the people was not spoken, it was assumed and they just declared it and were done with it (with some pretty powerful countries backing them up, regardless of lack of legality).

1 hour ago, Meera of Tarth said:

Cat gov sai they would allow both nationalities and Spain allows that with other countries, even from non Eu but Europeans ones. Furthetmore it is a birth riggt

 Theu Should change thr Constitution to change that. 

I think the same as you do, since that is the only way to see things without a MASSIVE paperwork and clogging all the courts in the country for years and ending up with nothing to show for it.

1 hour ago, Mentat said:

I really don't think there will be a civil war. Catalonia doesn't have a standing army or the means to raise one, and Catalans are peace-loving people. If Spain intervenes military in Catalonia, the most likely scenario is the military acting in support of the police. Spain will say they're there to keep the peace and ensure safety while Catalans will say they're an invading force that legitimises their right to self determination. Demonstrations will be held and the military will be booed, but if they keep their cool (and I'm sure they'll have orders of engagement saying not to open fire unless fired upon), I don't think things will go too far. Using military intervention as a means to elicit international sympathy and support will almost certainly be the name of the Catalan game.

At this point I feel it must be said, I'm really hoping the whole situation gets cleared up in a manner that makes everyone involved happy. Civil war is an extreme case and a lot of things need to happen before it gets to that.

As for "not having standing army nor means to raise one", I hate to burst your bubble but that may be the case now and that can change within a matter of months. Both Croatia and Bosnia were in the same position and at one point they had armies all of a sudden and a lot of stuff happened after that that I really hope won't happen in case of Catalonia.

1 hour ago, Mentat said:

Spanish nationality comes with a series of rights, which Spain couldn't possibly afford to extend to so many foreign nationals paying taxes elsewhere.

You are aware that where where you live and where you're paying taxes has no effect on your rights as a citizen? Or do you think that Spanish citizens living France or Portugal or wherever should give their Spanish citizenships up?

[Mentat]

1 hour ago, baxus said:

At this point I feel it must be said, I'm really hoping the whole situation gets cleared up in a manner that makes everyone involved happy. Civil war is an extreme case and a lot of things need to happen before it gets to that.

As for "not having standing army nor means to raise one", I hate to burst your bubble but that may be the case now and that can change within a matter of months. Both Croatia and Bosnia were in the same position and at one point they had armies all of a sudden and a lot of stuff happened after that that I really hope won't happen in case of Catalonia.

You are aware that where where you live and where you're paying taxes has no effect on your rights as a citizen? Or do you think that Spanish citizens living France or Portugal or wherever should give their Spanish citizenships up?

The Catalan government can try raising an army (not that it would be easy, they have a regional police force, but nothing resembling ground infantry hardware an airforce or a navy, and these things don't just spring out of nowhere), but I'm pretty confident they won't. On one hand they would be pretty glaringly guilty of treason if they did it, and on the other it would play right into Rajoy's hands. France would not be amused by an unsanctioned army being raised that close to its borders (or by the prospect of a civil war which might send waves of refugees its way), and Spain would feel legitimised to act more forcefully (and probably be able to persuade international opinion that it was warranted). Finally, I'm pretty certain nobody actually wants to.

On the other side of the 'conflict', Rajoy may be an imbecile, but I don't think he's a monster. He wouldn't sanction the army doing anything other than peacekeeping and lawful arrests. He might give the Catalan's reason to demonstrate, but not to take up arms.

Though I don't consider myself Catalan, I'm currently living in Reus (Catalonia) and I feel pretty safe.

I'm aware all countries have a diaspora of nationals living and working outside the country, but I don't think that invalidates my argument. If Catalonia achieves independence, it will have its own nationality and citizenship as is normal. Some provisions will have to be made for Catalans and Spaniards living in each other's territory, but it makes no sense (to me) that every national of the new Catalan republic would be allowed to keep the rights of Spanish nationality (like voting in Spanish elections, for example).

[Alarich II]

1 hour ago, baxus said:

If this whole situation does come to Catalonia declaring independence at some point in the future (hopefully after a referendum with no police involvement and close to a 100% voter turnout), what could Spain actually do to prevent it? Force Catalan people into submission? That's never worked and it would never work.

Bear in mind that I'm not talking about legality here, I'm talking about reality. There is nothing legal regarding Kosovo's independence and yet for all intents and purposes they are independent. There was no referendum or anything, the will of the people was not spoken, it was assumed and they just declared it and were done with it (with some pretty powerful countries backing them up, regardless of lack of legality).

The reality here is this: if Catalonia unilaterally declares independence, Spain has no reason to actually recognize this. Yes, they can choose to do nothing about it in terms of police action, suspension of autonomous status etc. (unlikely at this stage, but it is a possible option) but they can (and very probably would) use their political leverage internationally and within the EU to prevent their allies from taking up diplomatic relations with Catalonia, to block them from getting into the EU or getting a favourable trade agreement, they could probably even withdraw Spanish nationality for those who also get a Catalan passport. In short: their potential for diplomatic and economic retaliation is big and even bigger because Catalonia has no "natural" allies whereas Spain already is a member of the EU.

Now, if you compare this with the Kosovo Situation, you'll see at least some similarities: Serbia is trying to isolate Kosovo, Russia (probably the their only notable ally) doesn't recognize Kosovo etc. The main difference is this: in the last 25 years, Serbia has had an unfortunate history of (a) picking the wrong fights, (b) picking the wrong allies and (c) losing political and economic status with each instance of (a) and (b). So their actual political and economic leverage against Kosovo is not exactly overwhelming.

[Meera of Tarth]

4 hours ago, Alarich II said:

So, this is about the money.

Of course the question is: will 100% be more or less than whatever net percentage remains now? I don't think that the current regional government is doing Catalonia any great economic favours, probably not even in the long run.

But the good news is: as long as it's only about money, you can probably negotiate some kind of solution.

No, this is the main advantage I see in the long term. In the short an,d mid term there would be advantages in regards to having control of all the political decisions that now come from Madrid (so the advantage is having control of them but whether they are better or not will depend on the politicians and each person, though they will likely be bettrr in regards to the fact that they will take into consideration that Catalonia is a sobereign State). For instance, laws that the Catalan Parliament can not apptove now bc it is not within their competences). Also be

In terms of languagre, from what I read the two languages would stillbe coofficial so I see no difference for the better or for the worse. Maybe better in the sense that people might be able to actually speak in Catalan with the Administration.

[Tijgy]

I think it can be possible to accept Catalonia as a Member State of the European Union or at least legally. 

It is possible to suspend a country's voting rights in the Council because they infringed one of the fundamental principles of the European Union (like human rights). Without a vote Spain would't be able to vote in the decision of accepting Catalonia as a Member of the European Union. 

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This is of course legal talk. There would many member states not accepting this procedure (or at least I hope so), because 1° this is completely unethical, 2° they don't want a precedent where a country was excluded from the decision to accept if an other country could become part of the club, 3° other countries are 'best friends' with Spain, ....