Catalun independence vote

[Tijgy]

On the other side only European States respecting the fundamental principles of the European Union can become part of the Union; those fundamental principles also include the rule of law. 

So there are countries who might say Catalonia cannot become part of the Union because they might have broken the rule of law.

It is complicated 

[Meera of Tarth]

55 minutes ago, Tijgy said:

On the other side only European States respecting the fundamental principles of the European Union can become part of the Union; those fundamental principles also include the rule of law. 

So there are countries who might say Catalonia cannot become part of the Union because they might have broken the rule of law.

It is complicated 

In theory  there is also a treaty that says that European States cant not use force into their citizens IIRC (although not sure if that was military force...) so maybe they should also think about this. (Spain).

But in theory Catalonia would not be part of the EU bc Spain and other States would not permit that. Only if politically it makes sense to them (it's all about geopolitics and money) they'd allow Cat to be there. I suppose it would take a few years, bc, after all, Spain should also negotiate other things with Cat, such as the debt.

Anyway, Spain will not recognise Cat as an ndependent country and they will apply the 155 decree once Cat officially says it is independent.

[Meera of Tarth]

1 hour ago, Tijgy said:

I think it can be possible to accept Catalonia as a Member State of the European Union or at least legally. 

It is possible to suspend a country's voting rights in the Council because they infringed one of the fundamental principles of the European Union (like human rights). Without a vote Spain would't be able to vote in the decision of accepting Catalonia as a Member of the European Union. 

---

This is of course legal talk. There would many member states not accepting this procedure (or at least I hope so), because 1° this is completely unethical, 2° they don't want a precedent where a country was excluded from the decision to accept if an other country could become part of the club, 3° other countries are 'best friends' with Spain, .... 

Just seen this post, yeah, I was thinking about this.

[Meera of Tarth]

News from today:

-PSOE and PP agree to start talking about a reform of the Constitution in the next few months. (PSOE ASked PP about this, apparently).

-As part of the agreement, PSOE has to agree on the application of the 155 decree (suspension of the Autonomy) if necessary.

-155 starts today: Rajoy formally asks Puigdemont the initial question to apply it: if there was a declaration of Independence (Puigdemont has to respond these days, max day to respond on Monday). Rajoy allows Puigdemont  until the 19th of October to do something if necessary: revert it.

-Puigdemont asks for negotiation between the two Governments without any prior conditions.

[baxus]

4 hours ago, Alarich II said:

The reality here is this: if Catalonia unilaterally declares independence, Spain has no reason to actually recognize this. Yes, they can choose to do nothing about it in terms of police action, suspension of autonomous status etc. (unlikely at this stage, but it is a possible option) but they can (and very probably would) use their political leverage internationally and within the EU to prevent their allies from taking up diplomatic relations with Catalonia, to block them from getting into the EU or getting a favourable trade agreement, they could probably even withdraw Spanish nationality for those who also get a Catalan passport. In short: their potential for diplomatic and economic retaliation is big and even bigger because Catalonia has no "natural" allies whereas Spain already is a member of the EU.

Situation you are describing wouldn't benefit any of the parties involved. Trust me, I'm Serbian and this whole Kosovo situation is a clusterfuck of epic proportions such as you most definitely wouldn't want in Spain.

Once again, Spain can not withdraw nationality for Catalan people, especially not in the numbers you are suggesting. Spain could make dual citizenships illegal, but I'm not sure if they could do it for a single country.

4 hours ago, Alarich II said:

Now, if you compare this with the Kosovo Situation, you'll see at least some similarities: Serbia is trying to isolate Kosovo, Russia (probably the their only notable ally) doesn't recognize Kosovo etc. The main difference is this: in the last 25 years, Serbia has had an unfortunate history of (a) picking the wrong fights, (b) picking the wrong allies and (c) losing political and economic status with each instance of (a) and (b). So their actual political and economic leverage against Kosovo is not exactly overwhelming.

Actually, Spain doesn't recognize Kosovo either. I wonder why...  

[maarsen]

23 hours ago, Tijgy said:

No. It sounds like confederalism. 

But Puigdemont clearly declared the independence ... but asked the parliament to suspend it because he (or rather the rest of the world) wants dialogue. 

 

Tijgy, I have the feeling my post was unclear as to meaning.First of all, Canada is a confederation, as you pointed out. The issue has been that the Parti Quebecois,  campaigned on having a referendum on separating from Canada, if elected. They were elected to power, but support for separation was soft. they then hit upon the idea of sovereignty association, meaning Quebec would be a separate country but pension cheques and such would still be sent by Canada. The referendum failed even with  an attempt to obfuscate the referendum question. The PQ leader went on to blame the loss on "money and the ethnic vote". If that phrase ever crops up in the current mess, I will be giggling insanely.

[Gorn]

18 hours ago, baxus said:

If this whole situation does come to Catalonia declaring independence at some point in the future (hopefully after a referendum with no police involvement and close to a 100% voter turnout), what could Spain actually do to prevent it? Force Catalan people into submission? That's never worked and it would never work.

Actually, it worked quite often in the past. Here are some historical examples of failed secessionist movements defeated by military force: Basquia, Chechnya, Confederate States of America, Biafra, Kurdistan, Aceh, West Papua, Sri Lankan Tamils, etc. Also, closer to home, there's Herceg-Bosna and RSK, but let's not get into those examples

[Alarich II]

14 hours ago, baxus said:

Situation you are describing wouldn't benefit any of the parties involved. Trust me, I'm Serbian and this whole Kosovo situation is a clusterfuck of epic proportions such as you most definitely wouldn't want in Spain.

Once again, Spain can not withdraw nationality for Catalan people, especially not in the numbers you are suggesting. Spain could make dual citizenships illegal, but I'm not sure if they could do it for a single country.

Actually, Spain doesn't recognize Kosovo either. I wonder why...  

Of course it would be a huge mess, but you have to consider this: what does Spain lose in this scenario? Nothing they haven't lost already. Basically it a tit for tat: you fuck up our territorial integrity and economy and now we fuck up your potential future with the EU.

And I'm pretty sure that Spain could just make dual nationalites with a Catalan passport illegal.

[Meera of Tarth]

Human Rights Watch have spoken:

https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/10/12/spain-police-used-excessive-force-catalonia

Background

After the Catalan regional parliament agreed on September 6 to hold an referendum on independence, Spain’s central government lodged an urgent legal challenge at the Constitutional Court, which ruled on September 8 that such a poll was unconstitutional and should not take place.

The Attorney General, with the agreement of regional and municipal counterparts in Catalonia, instructed central and regional police forces to cooperate, serving the function of judicial police, to stop voting from taking place on October 1, but required that the order be carried out in a proportionate manner that  respected the “constitutional coexistence” of citizens. An estimated 10,000 police were in Catalonia on October 1.

An amendment to the Penal Code in 2005 decriminalized participation in a referendum deemed illegal by the national courts, which between 2003 and 2005 carried a possible prison sentence.

 

[Meera of Tarth]

On Spain National Day (today) thr minister of defense has said that she thinks the army will not be nrcessary.

scary?

[SirArthur]

2 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

An amendment to the Penal Code in 2005 decriminalized participation in a referendum deemed illegal by the national courts, which between 2003 and 2005 carried a possible prison sentence.

And in what way is that disallowing the police to confiscate the ballot boxes and use force if hindered ?

[SirArthur]

1 hour ago, Meera of Tarth said:

On Spain National Day (today) thr minister of defense has said that she thinks the army will not be nrcessary.

scary?

Why scary ? Soldiers act as a national emergency pool and are used in natural disasters all the time. Armed soldiers are something different but again not a problem if used for guard services which they also do all the time.

And for the implicated use of soldiers against civilians there should be more proof than some highly emotional and triggered reaction from a listener.

[Mentat]

2 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

On Spain National Day (today) thr minister of defense has said that she thinks the army will not be nrcessary.

scary?

Well, it would probably be scarier if she'd said that the army would be necessary 

[Meera of Tarth]

1 hour ago, SirArthur said:

And in what way is that disallowing the police to confiscate the ballot boxes and use force if hindered ?

Have you read thr whole articlr about their conclusions on what REALLY happened?

[Meera of Tarth]

15 minutes ago, Mentat said:

Well, it would probably be scarier if she'd said that the army would be necessary 

Of course it would be. It is scary though. She has not discarded theuse of army. I wonder wgy theywould nred them since there has not been  a hurricanr. The implications are scary, especially after the incidents of the National Police. Imagine.   normal people walking on the streets and the army there doing something agaunst other people who are nervous.  And or furious bc the 155 is applied. So normal people walking Peacefully could be injured or killed. If the ball guns have made a mab lose his sight what could regular weapons do? The mere suggestion is actually scary.

[Meera of Tarth]

1 hour ago, SirArthur said:

Why scary ? Soldiers act as a national emergency pool and are used in natural disasters all the time. Armed soldiers are something different but again not a problem if used for guard services which they also do all the time.

And for the implicated use of soldiers against civilians there should be more proof than some highly emotional and triggered reaction from a listener.

What the mibiater of defense has aaid has been broadcasted. I kniw what I have heard. She thibks there will be no need to use the army but cant completely say NO bc they are here to preserve the territory inaide and ouside Spain.

[Meera of Tarth]

I hope the Catalan Preaident measu arries his words in his response so as they dont apply the decree. Although, i must say that if the independence is declared again in a non ambiguous way I can totally see then the army arriving to Catalonia 

[Meera of Tarth]

Sorry for my spelling. My phone doesnt work well and I cant edit anything either.

[baxus]

14 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

Of course it would be. It is scary though. She has not discarded theuse of army. I wonder wgy theywould nred them since there has not been  a hurricanr. The implications are scary, especially after the incidents of the National Police. Imagine.   normal people walking on the streets and the army there doing something agaunst other people who are nervous.  And or furious bc the 155 is applied. So normal people walking Peacefully could be injured or killed. If the ball guns have made a mab lose his sight what could regular weapons do? The mere suggestion is actually scary.

It definitely sounds scary. The moment when military is even considered in the context of acting against general population is not as far from that becoming a reality as we'd like to think. Once again, I've lived through a similar situation though I was just a kid at the time.

As for armed forces on the streets of your cities, I hope no one ever gets to experience it. I had that misfortune for a couple of months in 2003, when our prime minister was assassinated and country was on red alert. I was a bit older then, and going to university and about the city with police officers armed with automatic weapons snd SWAT vehicles zooming around the city at every corner was scary as hell. I can only assume it would've been even worse if it was military.

[Mentat]

12 hours ago, Meera of Tarth said:

Of course it would be. It is scary though. She has not discarded theuse of army. I wonder wgy theywould nred them since there has not been  a hurricanr. The implications are scary, especially after the incidents of the National Police. Imagine.   normal people walking on the streets and the army there doing something agaunst other people who are nervous.  And or furious bc the 155 is applied. So normal people walking Peacefully could be injured or killed. If the ball guns have made a mab lose his sight what could regular weapons do? The mere suggestion is actually scary.

People with weapons are scary. I remember going for a walk with my girlfriend in the centre of Reus on a festive day. This was shortly after the terrorist attack in Nice in 2016. We saw several Mossos d'Esquadra (Catalan regional police) with machine guns. The streets were chock full with people, and I couldn't imagine a single situation in which firing those machine guns would make things safer. We were unnerved, so we went elsewhere.

The minister of defence said that she was almost certain that a military intervention would be unnecessary, which to me is reassuring. If part of the army is sent to Catalonia to reinforce the police, I'm sure they will have strict orders of engagement regarding gunfire. Catalans shot in the street would spell the end of any agreed solution, and it would make Spain's international support plummet. UN and EU condemnation and demands that Spain submit to international mediation regarding Catalonia would swiftly follow. Spain is well aware of this, I'm sure.

That said, this climate of confrontation benefits no one. Some people have already gotten hurt, and if more reasonable minds don't prevail, it seems inevitable that more will. Puigdemont can't, in good faith, call for a de-escalation of tension and dialogue and at the same time unilaterally declare independence.

On related news, Spanish newspapers are reporting that the intent of PP and socialists is to impose new regional elections on Catalonia. We'll see how that goes down.