NFL 2017: Sneaky-Good October

[Jace, Extat]

Sneaky great season for Alex Smith.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Pretty damn good game going on right now between the Potomac Basin Indigenous Peoples and the Chefs. 14-10 Chefs early in the 3rd.

[Ramsay B.]

VD is loose! Great answer by the Skins.

[Jace, Extat]

I don't think any defensive line coach has ever received more sideline attention than Jimmy 'soups' Tomsula has the past 5 minutes.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

Hell of a game here. Possible Superb Owl preview?

[Jace, Extat]

28 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Hell of a game here. Possible Superb Owl preview?

We should be so lucky

[briantw]

Wonder how many fantasy games got swung on that defensive touchdown at the end there.  

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, briantw said:

Wonder how many fantasy games got swung on that defensive touchdown at the end there.  

Fantasy might have been bad, but betting was worse; this caused the Chiefs to cover AND hit the Over on points, all in one meaningless TD.

[Fiddler]

10 hours ago, briantw said:

Wonder how many fantasy games got swung on that defensive touchdown at the end there.  

The league I am in with my family, my brother won 98 - 96 due to that TD.

Gotta say, for my first Monday night game in a long while (usually working) that was an enjoyable game to watch.  Kirk Cousins looked like he wanted this game with his late game runs, but Alex Smith said "Do you like that" and marched right back down the field.

Now the question is; can the Chiefs win a playoff game?

[Maithanet]

It was a good game.  Washington put up a good fight, and if Doctson could hold on to a pass through the ground contact, we probably steal a win.  But he didn't, so it's a loss.  The defense wasn't as good as it has been, but it still held KC to 23 points at home, and that's not bad.  Doubly so considering that our secondary was just a rotating unit of injuries throughout the game.  We had five secondary guys get injured in one game! Swearenger, Norman, Fuller, Nicholson, Dunbar.  Some of them were able to come back in (Norman was done in the first half), but still that kind of rotation in your secondary is a disaster waiting to happen.  And while there were some defensive breakdowns, particularly on covering the tight ends, we never gave up that 50+ yard play to Hill or Hunt, and often were able to hold KC to field goals.  In the end, those injuries plus a bunch of backbreaking penalties, including 3 times on 3rd down away from the ball, were just too much. 

Still a pretty gritty performance all around.  I remain optomistic about this season IF we didn't suffer too many serious injuries.  Preliminary reports are encouraging, I haven't heard about anybody out for the season, it's more in the 1-6 week range.  Hopefully we can use the bye and get healthy.  The first four games were the hardest part of the schedule, so being 2-2 isn't the worst.  

[Jaime L]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

It was a good game.  Washington put up a good fight, and if Doctson could hold on to a pass through the ground contact, we probably steal a win.  But he didn't, so it's a loss.  The defense wasn't as good as it has been, but it still held KC to 23 points at home, and that's not bad.  Doubly so considering that our secondary was just a rotating unit of injuries throughout the game.  We had five secondary guys get injured in one game! Swearenger, Norman, Fuller, Nicholson, Dunbar.  Some of them were able to come back in (Norman was done in the first half), but still that kind of rotation in your secondary is a disaster waiting to happen.  And while there were some defensive breakdowns, particularly on covering the tight ends, we never gave up that 50+ yard play to Hill or Hunt, and often were able to hold KC to field goals.  In the end, those injuries plus a bunch of backbreaking penalties, including 3 times on 3rd down away from the ball, were just too much. 

Still a pretty gritty performance all around.  I remain optomistic about this season IF we didn't suffer too many serious injuries.  Preliminary reports are encouraging, I haven't heard about anybody out for the season, it's more in the 1-6 week range.  Hopefully we can use the bye and get healthy.  The first four games were the hardest part of the schedule, so being 2-2 isn't the worst.  

Yeah I was impressed again. With the kind of defensive injuries they had it felt like there was no reasonable chance to win this game but they almost stole it. I think gritty is the right word. This team feels way less finesse and way more able to go punch for punch against good teams than any Skins team of the last decade. Not sure if it's it's the players acquired or if someone is providing a "two hobos knife fighting over a can of beans" coaching edge, but it just feels different.  Not just the defense, which is out there throwing haymakers as long as its able, but even Cousins who is taking off scrambling 3 times in a row if that's the only way to will his way to a go ahead score. And that last throw to Doctson was utterly perfect. Sure it would've been great if he held on, but not like that was an easy play by any stretch. 

Really can't blame any player for that loss - they all played smart and tough as far as I could see. The only major fuck up was actually Gruden calling a timeout with 50 seconds left instead of letting the clock go to like 25-30 seconds. There was no reason for that timeout. Either make KC call one or force KC to attempt their final drive without the kind of time cushion necessary to run their normal offense. These are the small, very controllable things you need to do to beat a very good team in their home and it ended up being the difference in this one. 

Also Sean McDonough is awful. His "Kareem Hunt is not getting up" on a play in which a fat, white guard was rolling around in pain or his repeated hemming and hawing of fumble/non-fumble, catch/non-catch on replays that made it abundantly obvious what had occurred belie a man who displays zero understanding of what he is seeing. It's like Al Michaels but the complete opposite. 

[Fez]

I was prepared to ignore the season entirely as the Jets go 1-15, but instead they're sitting at 2-2 and I don't know what to think. They aren't a good team, but they might be mediocre, and there don't seem to be many good teams around right now (maybe three in the AFC?). I don't want to get sucked in to anything, especially since if I do start paying attention I'm sure that'll cause them to lose to the Browns this week; but looking at the schedule, it's easy to see them sitting at 4-4 at the end of October and basically in the thick of the wild card race. 

The second half of the season could easily expose that as a mirage, but it'd still mean meaningful games in November and (maybe) December; and it's hard to ignore that, much as I'd like to.

[Maithanet]

45 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Yeah I was impressed again. With the kind of defensive injuries they had it felt like there was no reasonable chance to win this game but they almost stole it. I think gritty is the right word. This team feels way less finesse and way more able to go punch for punch against good teams than any Skins team of the last decade. Not sure if it's it's the players acquired or if someone is providing a "two hobos knife fighting over a can of beans" coaching edge, but it just feels different.  Not just the defense, which is out there throwing haymakers as long as its able, but even Cousins who is taking off scrambling 3 times in a row if that's the only way to will his way to a go ahead score. And that last throw to Doctson was utterly perfect. Sure it would've been great if he held on, but not like that was an easy play by any stretch. 

Really can't blame any player for that loss - they all played smart and tough as far as I could see. The only major fuck up was actually Gruden calling a timeout with 50 seconds left instead of letting the clock go to like 25-30 seconds. There was no reason for that timeout. Either make KC call one or force KC to attempt their final drive without the kind of time cushion necessary to run their normal offense. These are the small, very controllable things you need to do to beat a very good team in their home and it ended up being the difference in this one.

It's not an easy play, but it's one you expect a professional receiver to make.  I miss Garcon something fierce (Jackson much less so, his ole-style blocking doesn't fit on this team). 

And yes, I was pissed at the time that Gruden called the timeout, and doubly pissed when on 3rd and 2 he dialed up a shot to the end zone.  If you're going to do that, bleed the clock as much as posisble.  Calling that timeout when he did, I honestly would have preferred he just forego the field goal and use two downs to get the first down with the intention of scoring a touchdown or nothing.  So many coaches seem to think that going to overtime is a good thing.  It's not.  You have a 50/50 chance of winning, and a more potential injuries to boot.

Once they failed at 3rd and 2, I'd have been OK with going for it on 4th down instead of kicking.  Here are the possible outcomes:

Attempt fg =>

20% chance miss fg = loss. 

80% chance make fg

    - 40% chance KC scores with 45 seconds left needing only a FG = loss.

    - 60% chance game goes to overtime, but 50% chance of loss there as well. 

Overall chances of winning = 80% * 60% * 50% = 24% chance of winning.

Go for it on 4th and 2 =>  60% chance you're successful (teams are conservative here and don't want to give up the td)

40% chance you score TD with minimal time left for KC = win

60% chance you kick a fg from closer in (90% chance of success) as time expires.  Overtime = 50/50 victory.

So by my math, that is a 24% chance of winning in regulation, and a further 18% chance of going to overtime and winning.  That is MUCH BETTER ODDS.  It's not even close.  Not to mention losing in regulation is preferable to losing in overtime.

This is why NFL coaches can be so frustrating.  Not only did Gruden not do this, most people would have considered going for it on 4th down "crazy", as if the goal of the game is to get to overtime first, win the game second. 

[Rockroi]

So I was going about my day and forgot that I had not commented on the Patriots tail-spin.  It was either this or eat glass.  

The Pats' last two games- against Houston (W) and Carolina (L) - could have gone either way, so going 1-1 on those games seems fair.  The Pats 2017 team looks suspiciously like the 2011, 2012, and 2013 teams - these offensive power-houses that have Defenses so atrocious that the only way to win is for the Pats to be down by 4 or fewer points and have the ball on the last drive.  That's it.  So the Houston Texans and the Carolina Panthers both did the same exact thing - they both EASILY moved past the Pats terrible D, put up 30+ points and then waited for the Pats to either score or lose.  That's the Pats game plan.  

Stephan Gilmore is now the poster-boy of Pats failure: a morbid DB who is grossly overpaid (didn't think so at the time) so we can't get rid of him, and he basically plays in a way the refs no longer allow- by slamming his hands in the WRs faces.  Yeah, not legal, asshole.  Sure, somebody could argue that its ticky-tack shit.  But he was called once for it, extending a Panthers drive and he SHOULD have said, "Shit... the refs are calling that!  I better cut it out or it may- oh I DON'T FUCKING KNOW! - it may, on third down, negate a SACK by Donta Hightower and EXTEND a Panthers drive the 4th quarter that will culminate in a game-winning FG..."  

Gilmore, instead, after the game said- "I am not changing the way I play."  THANK'S FUCKWAD!  So, you now will have 1) ref's looking at you to commit the penalty, and 2) have the other team point at everything you do and say "See?!  He's doing what he said he would do!"  Asshole.  Stupid, dumb asshole.  

Here are some numbers:

28-35, 368, 4 (148.6)

27/45, 356, 2 (99.9)

22/33, 301,  2 (90.6)

22-29, 316  3 (130.8)

These are the lines from each Alex Smith, Drew Brees, DeShaun Watson and Cam Newton against the Pats.  The AVERAGE is 25/35 for 335 yards 3 TDs, ~1INT and a rating of 118.2.  You may be shocked to learn (or not) that each day represents a season-high in yards for each QB. The Pats are DEAD LAST in DVOA Defense (through 3 weeks); they are LAST in Total Yards, last in opposing team Passer rating and second-to-last in points allowed (Indy is #1). According to 538, the Pats have the worst defense in the League... since 2006... The Pats allow a TD on 31% of the drives (worst in the NFL) and they have the 27th Red Zone D giving up points 67% of the time.  

Right now- according to FO - the Rams, Buffalo and Detroit all have a better chance making the playoffs than do the Pats.  

And right now they may fall below 500 as I DO NOT like their chances against the Bucs.  After that its hit or miss- Jets (W), Atl (L), LAChargers (W), Denver (L), Oak (L)... and that's before facing the "first place" Bills.  

The question right now is "How can they fix it" and the answer seems to be "They can't."  The Pas rush is not terrible, but Gilmore is lost, McCourty is trying too hard to cover up his deficiencies, they have NOBODY who can play the interior of the field like Hightower who is not 100%; and NONE of their free agent pick-ups have worked out at all.  Oh, and Malcome Butler is probably so pissed about Gilmore he can't WAIT to jet this off season.  

If Tom Brady were not on the Pats they would be 0-4.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Of course Cook tears his ACL after looking like he could be a top 5 back in the league. First Sperry jinxes Bradford and then Jace jinxes Cook. This is last year all over again. 

 

Dear Football Gods,

Why do you hate the Vikings? What did they ever do to you? You curse us year after year while allowing the Packers to have so much success. Why do they deserve it? They drink cheap, disgusting beer and make bad cheese while we drink the good stuff and gave the world Juicy Lucy's. Clearly we're the more deserving sports fan!

Signed,

All sad Vikings fans 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

3 hours ago, Jaime L said:

Not sure if it's it's the players acquired or if someone is providing a "two hobos knife fighting over a can of beans" coaching edge, but it just feels different. 

He shaves the playbook onto his back every Monday so the players can study it while he scribbles pictures of hot dogs onto the blackboard during team meetings.

 

 

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Dear Football Gods,

Why do you hate the Vikings? What did they ever do to you? You curse us year after year while allowing the Packers to have so much success. Why do they deserve it? They drink cheap, disgusting beer and make bad cheese while we drink the good stuff and gave the world Juicy Lucy's. Clearly we're the more deserving sports fan!

Signed,

All sad Vikings fans 

You made Brett Favre relevant again.

You deserve this, and everything else.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

6 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

You made Brett Favre relevant again.

You deserve this, and everything else.

Your namesakes raped and pillaged most of the known world and invented crucifixion. Oh yeah, and honey mead. That shit is foul. 

[Week]

The immortal Brandon Weeden failed back into another job - signed by the Tennessee Titans. I cannot think of anyone more dissimilar to Marcus Mariota than Brandon Weeden. Maybe Tom Savage.

See link for Brandon Weeden taking a knee for the American flag. No blowback of course.

https://deadspin.com/brandon-weeden-brandon-weeden-1819111866

[Kalbear]

If only there was a spread-style QB who is excellent with their feet who was available to back up Mariota