U.S. Politics: Having a Good Time

[DMC]

Just now, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Hanlon's Razor baby. I can buy that, but I'd add that there is an aspect of malice to the stupidity. Maybe a 30/70 split?

Malice and stupidity are not mutually exclusive.  The point is that ability to achieve authoritarianism and incompetence, comparatively, are.

[karaddin]

I would consider stacking the judicial appointments with people that will owe loyalty to you and rule the way you want them to rule to be an assault on the judiciary. He doesn't have to directly attack it to destroy its ability to protect the American people.

I don't disagree with that last sentence as far as incompetence has been the thing that has saved us so far, but that doesn't mean he's not trying. It just means he's incompetent and there is a fighting chance of stopping him.

[DMC]

I really don't want to reinvigorate the racial discussion that took place in this thread, but I'm drunk and can't help myself.  The smugness among a certain contingent around here is appalling to me.*  I've stated why this is the case on the false moral superiority in previous threads, but now apparently there's an intellectual aspect as well.  As if posters that have the gall to disagree with certain dogma of the groupthink do not understand incredibly complex (yet banal to anyone paying attention) terms like "institutional racism" and "white privilege."  My word, how can I make sense of such newfangled talk?!?  In other words, smug right back atcha. 

When posters make hot takes like all white people are racist, or defending free speech isn't "necessarily" nazi sympathizing - only enabling or whatnot - that's the type of terminology that either inflames or shuts down discussion.  More importantly, when posters incessantly attack others as racist due to genuine objections and/or disagreements, that's not because the latter just "doesn't understand."  It's simply the former acting like an asshole on a message board that can't engage in an adult discussion.  Plain and goddamn simple.

Generally, the posture often presented here reminds me of Frank Bruni's recent column - "I'm a White Man. Hear Me Out."  These threads often devolve into a dichotomy wherein white males are both told "you can't understand" and "you must understand."  I think, as a premise, that's fine and understandable - when it acts as a building block rather than a bloody gate.  But if that's the underlying rule of any discussion, I say to you good luck.  All you're doing is alienating people inclined to agree with you, let alone those that may be persuadable.  You are marginalizing yourself - and are precisely the reason this country is so polarized and can't put itself back together again.

That being said, there was some discussion earlier in this thread on racial resentment.  Make no mistake - racial resentment is a measure of implicit racism, which means for a long time it was the best measure of racism.  That's why it was created in the first place by David Sears & Donald Kinder around 45 years ago.  I cited their symbolic racism scale months ago before I took part in these type of arguments, but I'm tired of linking to literally an entire subfield of research.  Here.  Point is - shocker - racism is most prevalent in the South.  The interesting question at this point is if Sears & Kinder's racial resentment scale is even relevant at this point?  Or are respondents more emboldened in answering items with explicitly racist connotations?

*I feel it's important to emphasize I'm not referring to the posters I most recently responded to - specifically @karaddin made a post about 10 pages back in response to my comments and I enthusiastically agree with almost everything written there.

[DMC]

52 minutes ago, karaddin said:

I would consider stacking the judicial appointments with people that will owe loyalty to you and rule the way you want them to rule to be an assault on the judiciary. He doesn't have to directly attack it to destroy its ability to protect the American people.

Trump has been more successful than Obama at stacking the judiciary.  That's the latter's fault though.  This is a battle between the Federalist Society and reasonable jurists.  Unified government helps, but Obama and Reid didn't realize it was a street fight until it was too late.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

5 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

Generally, the posture often presented here reminds me of Frank Bruni's recent column - "I'm a White Man. Hear Me Out."  These threads often devolve into a dichotomy wherein white males are both told "you can't understand" and "you must understand."  I think, as a premise, that's fine and understandable - when it acts as a building block rather than a bloody gate.  But if that's the underlying rule of any discussion, I say to you good luck.  All you're doing is alienating people inclined to agree with you, let alone those that may be persuadable.  You are marginalizing yourself - and are precisely the reason this country is so polarized and can't put itself back together again.

Love that Bruni piece. Good stuff.

I don't really mind the "you can't understand" bit. I get that. I acknowledge my privilege. Here that often gets taken a step further. It's "you can't understand, so your opinion is negligible." 

 

[OldGimletEye]

More on why conservative idiot Kevin Warsh has no business being appointed to run a lemonade stand, and certainly not the Federal Reserve.

If Trump had half a brain, he’d reappoint Yellen, rather than considering the short list of conservative losers he has for the Fed, like Warsh, Taylor, or Cohn.

But, I have to say, I’m somewhat relieved that Trump is too dumb to know whats in his best interest, so we can rid ourselves of the orange monster as quickly as possible.

https://niskanencenter.org/blog/notes/just-say-no-kevin-warsh/

Quote

Apparently Kevin Warsh is in a dead heat with Janet Yellen for Fed Chair.  I tried to articulate just how bad this is but the whole thing has me shrill. Thankfully there are many other folks you can read while I gather my bearings.  For my part, I’ll leave you with this: back during the crisis some of us used to say “shut-up Warsh” to indicate that the previous speaker had just made a case so incoherent it wasn’t worth addressing.

Hey, I like that: "Shut-up Warsh".

..................................

The not so Democrat friendly James Pethokoukis says, “Yep, The Republican Party is too dumb to fail.”.
 

Quote

Both the GOP’s health care and tax efforts show, if not an intellectually fatigued party, then one unwilling to speak truth to its voters: Tax cuts almost never pay for themselves. Universal health insurance coverage is a proper societal goal. ObamaCare isn’t to blame for slow economic growth. The future U.S. tax burden is far more likely to rise than fall. Trying to maintain policy fictions — whether to appease Fox News, talk radio, or voters with misplaced expectations — gets you a week like this one, a week full of bad politics and bad policy. And with little sign that GOPers are ready to acknowledge these hard truths, this bad week is unlikely to be the last one.

...........................

Speaking of conservative idiot Warsh, he was an inflation is just around the corner guy. You know, one of those guys that just can’t get out of the 1970s. He probably still uses an 8 track and will show up on his first day on the job in a leisure suit.

https://medium.com/@neelkashkari/my-take-on-inflation-578aa5b6dc14

Anyway.

Quote

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)¹ are trying to understand why inflation and wage growth are low, despite the headline unemployment rate having fallen from a peak of 10 percent during the Great Recession to 4.4 percent today. We would have expected a strong job market to lead to stronger wage growth and then higher inflation as businesses passed their increased costs on to customers. Yet that hasn’t happened. 

 

Quote

I believe the most likely causes of persistently low inflation are additional domestic labor market slack and falling inflation expectations. This essay will explore the causes of the latter, falling inflation expectations, and I will argue that the FOMC’s policy to remove monetary accommodation over the past few years is likely an important factor driving inflation expectations lower.

The most likely cause of labor market slack currently is disequilibrium on the safe asset market. Keynes was right when he basically wrote a dollar saved today doesn’t translate into a commitment to purchase something tomorrow. And when there is disequilibrium on the safe asset market it spills over into other markets like the labor market (none of this Robert Lucas Walrasian nonsense for me. No  thanks). The low inflation is about the market trying to restore the real value of safe assets, but while this process is occurring, it can be very damaging, as resources remained under utilized.

And of course people will revise their inflation expectations, which isn’t good either, not when the natural rate is likely to be lower going forward in the future than it was say over the 20th Century, which Kashkari explains by writing:

Quote

 In addition, allowing inflation expectations to slip will give us less room to reduce interest rates in response to a future economic downturn because we will hit the effective lower bound more often than if we had preserved expectations at our 2 percent target.

............................................

Jeff Sessions says, “I’m going to be a jerk for no sane reason.”

https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/10/5/16429800/trump-sessions-transgender-workers

Quote

Attorney General Jeff Sessions has reversed a previous memo from President Barack Obama’s administration that interpreted the Civil Rights Act to protect transgender workers, potentially opening people up to discrimination in the workplace due to their gender identity.

.........................................................

Marsha Blackburn says, “You know, I like being an idiot. And I’m going to even be a bigger idiot by proclaiming my undying love for the Orange Monster.”
 

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/5/16430792/marsha-blackburn-senate-candidate-corker

Quote

Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) launched her bid for Sen. Bob Corker’s seat Thursday, with a clear message against Republican leadership on Capitol Hill.

“The United States Senate, it’s totally dysfunctional and enough to drive you nuts,” Blackburn said of the Republican-led upper chamber, in the first lines of a video announcing her candidacy.

..................

Instead, she framed herself as an anti-establishment conservative — a close ally to President Donald Trump, his anti-immigration message, and the right’s stand against “political correctness.”

 

Quote

“I’m politically incorrect and proud of it, so let me just tell you how it is,” Blackburn said. “The fact that our Republican majority in the US Senate can’t overturn Obamacare or will not overturn Obamacare is a disgrace. Too many Senate Republicans act like Democrats or worse, and that’s what we have to change.”

Here is a tip Marsha. The reason for the Republican Party’s troubles is because it’s one sorry ass party. At no point, does it have any really credible policy goals. In seven fuckin’ years it couldn’t come up with a viable health care plan, even though for seven fuckin’ years it lied it’s ass off and acted like it could.

And now, it’s selling bullshit on tax reform.

And then it doesn’t mean spirited little shit like:

Quote

Attorney General Jeff Sessions has reversed a previous memo from President Barack Obama’s administration that interpreted the Civil Rights Act to protect transgender workers, potentially opening people up to discrimination in the workplace due to their gender identity.

The Democratic Party may have it’s own set of issues. But, it’s not nearly as fucked up as the Republican Party. Being that fucked up is impossible. You’d have to really, really, work very hard, for a long time, to be that fucked up.

In short, the Republican Party is a garbage heap because of people like you Marsha.

[Morpheus]

He is going to kill us all

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/05/politics/donald-trump-military-dinner/index.html

Quote

 

"You guys know what this represents? Maybe it's the calm before the storm," Trump said at the photo op Thursday night, following a meeting with his top military commanders.

When reporters present asked what he meant, Trump replied: "It could be, the calm, the calm before the storm."

Reporters asked if the storm was related to Iran or ISIS. 

Trump replied: "We have the world's great military people in this room, I will tell you that. And uh, we're gonna have a great evening, thank you all for coming." 

When asked again what he meant, Trump said only: "You'll find out."

 

 

[Toth]

22 minutes ago, Morpheus said:

He is going to kill us all

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/05/politics/donald-trump-military-dinner/index.html

 

When I went to my E-Mail account a little earlier, the first headline of the news thingy there showed the picture of a nuclear explosion and my heart plummeted for a moment. Until I've read the words about "Ican" getting the peace Nobel prize.

That's how bleak it currently is... I'm really just expecting nuclear war to start at the drop of a hat...

[Dr. Pepper]

14 hours ago, Mexal said:

This is a compelling read. Exclusive emails from inside Breitbart's operation including how they catered towards the hate and were funded by the Mercers.

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/916038134315466752

ETA: No idea why my twitter links don't end up posting like it used to.

Yikes.  

Mostly just quoting to have a repost for to make sure people see this and read.

[Mexal]

8 hours ago, dmc515 said:

Where you hearing that?  Seems to me he'll be very difficult to replace.  Who in the hell wants to replace him?  Same goes for Tillerson, except Kelly actually seems competent at his job.

To the Tillerson question...

 

[Fez]

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/us/politics/republicans-disarray-trump-senate-congress.html

I didn't realize Sen. Cochran's health was quite as bad as being reported. He's still not in the hospital, as Trump was claiming a couple weeks ago, but apparently he has been staying in Mississippi; and missing quite a lot of votes. There hasn't been anything major to vote on though, so it's not clear if McConnell is just letting Cochran rest or if the GOP's working senate majority is now down to 2 votes instead of 3.

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/democrats-grow-panicked-that-they-could-blow-the-years-biggest-race

And I wish I knew if this article about the Virginia governor's race was being clickbaity, or if things are worse for Ralph Northam than being generally reported. There's a lot of concern about fundraising, and three unnamed Democratic sources saying that polling internals have the race tied, not at the 13-point lead the WaPo poll had (though that could be them trying to use fear to push fundraising). With everything that's happened, and how blue-leaning Virginia is, I'll be extremely disheartened if Northam loses.

[Mexal]

5 minutes ago, Fez said:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/democrats-grow-panicked-that-they-could-blow-the-years-biggest-race

And I wish I knew if this article about the Virginia governor's race was being clickbaity, or if things are worse for Ralph Northam than being generally reported. There's a lot of concern about fundraising, and three unnamed Democratic sources saying that polling internals have the race tied, not at the 13-point lead the WaPo poll had (though that could be them trying to use fear to push fundraising). With everything that's happened, and how blue-leaning Virginia is, I'll be extremely disheartened if Northam loses.

As will I. Dems have to win VA governorship. From what I've read, the biggest issue is lack of enthusiasm. State governorships just don't have the same hype as federal congress seats. That being said, Trump tweeting against Northam, saying he's backing MS-13 gangs when there are zero sanctuary cities in VA, is good for Northam. It brings national attention to the race.

[Mother Cocanuts]

14 hours ago, TerraPrime said:

Economics is not the only measure of power, though. Power comes from sheer numbers, in many cases, when you take over the ruling structures simply due to the overwhelming number. Conflating economic success and power in society is unwise at best. 

And I know what you're trying to get at - I am saying your premise is flawed and you're not getting at what you think you're getting at. 

I never said that Economics is the only measure of power. I made sure to make clear that when I was speaking about the "dominance" of Asians it was in an Economic context. But you did say something interesting TerraPrime: if power comes from sheer number, would it stand to reason that white racism will never see a resolution until white people are no longer a majority?

14 hours ago, OldGimletEye said:

It should matter to individual white people in this country if they care about basic fairness. This isn’t hard.

Also there is a lot of evidence, that racism has operated through American institutions and laws, to the detriment of minorities, particularly African Americans. That shouldn’t be a secret.

You're not addressing the point. Dominance implies some form of action. If we are just dealing in generalizations, then what does "dominance" matter to the individual white person?

14 hours ago, OldGimletEye said:

And it shouldn’t be a secret exactly that racism, as it acts through various institutions, can have pernicious effects for a very long time.

Your analogy is simply irrelevant because it doesn’t remotely address the issue of how laws and institutions, controlled by dominant groups, harm less powerful groups because of prejudice.

No, it's no secret. But this does not absolve the decisions of poor black people especially since the government no longer sanctions these practices.

14 hours ago, OldGimletEye said:

Just by way of one example: In a prior post, I mentioned how the practice of red lining harmed African Americans, as just one example,  and continues to haunt them. Here is one study of the issue. I’ll quote from it a little:

The authors conclude:

https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/working-papers/2017/wp2017-12

Now keep in mind this is only one example of instutional prejudice or racism. And maybe it’s not even the best example. I only bring it up to show how it often works and how its effects can last for a very long time.

I already know of the practices you mentioned.

14 hours ago, OldGimletEye said:

Your analogy here doesn’t remotely address what were talking about here.

Yes it does. The issue as I pointed out is not about whether white people care about fairness but their assuming responsibility for some "dominance" of which they are not apart. That's why I brought up the murder rate and created an analogy involving some random black person. I could just as easily say to said random black person, "if you care about life, then acknowledge that black people are the perpetrators of nearly half of all murders in this country." Why would that black person's interest in protecting life be affected by a racial inequality then a white person's interest in fairness be affected by a racial inequality?

14 hours ago, OldGimletEye said:

Okay, I took some time to explain to you, that the researchers in that study controlled for a variety of factors that should have explained the wage gap. But, those factors did not.

Now, given, the historical record in the US, probably the most likely candidate for the gap, after controlling for a variety of factors, is simply racism. And I say things like lack of good schools and employment opportunities are really functions of racism. I wouldn’t really consider them to be exogenous variables here.

Yes, in an ideal world, it would be nice if we had actual variables that could measure racism, every time it occurred. But we don’t have them, and I’m not even sure how we’d go about even constructing them.

You’re basically trying to say that no inferences are allowed. But only direct measurable evidence is allowed. And I pretty much think that is load of horseshit. Again, we have a wage gap, that is not explained once we control for a variety of variables. The gap shouldn’t be there. But it is.

Now if you have a plausible alternative theory of what is going on, then by all means offer it up. But, I have a suspicion that you really don’t have one and are just grasping for straws here.

Do you have a better theoretical explanation that explains the facts here? I doubt it.

No, what you explained is that researchers controlled for a variety of factors that explained 82% of the gap, and that 18% remained unexplained. The researchers then deduced that the unexplained portion could be a result of discrimination, differences in school quality, or career opportunities. Your assumption is that it's racism. And I've asked you to support it. You think historical context provides some form of weight, but it doesn't. Your assumption is still no less an assumption. I don't need to provide an alternative theory because I never said that it wasn't racism. I only posited that you considered that it may not be racism. At the end of the day, you have little support for your assumption.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 hours ago, Dr. Pepper said:

Yeah, I've been waiting for @Tywin et al. to offer up his prediction on this one.

The phrase I kept hearing last night was “Washington insiders believe he’ll be out by Christmas.” Personally I’d be shocked if he made it to Thanksgiving, but it’s a low harder to predict how fast a SoS will get canned than it is a communications guy and a HHS Secretary who isn’t needed to achieve the goal of destroying healthcare in America. Plus we’re in the middle of a mess with NK and Iran. All that said, the over/ under is Halloween. I’d bet the under, as always.

[Bonnot OG]

And birth control coverage is reversed. I just want to thank along the whiny bernie or busters, the purity seekers, the ones who couldn't "get excited" for allowing Trump to win.

 

Way to allow a generation of people to be under a conservative SCOTUS and progress to actually stop and regress. Thank you for allowing the civil rights of others to be attacked, privileged fools.

[Zorral]

The report also treats us to signage held up by Milo proclaiming, "Feminism Is Cancer."  Yah, gddmit! keep that contraception away from them uppity wimmen!

https://www.buzzfeed.com/josephbernstein/heres-how-breitbart-and-milo-smuggled-white-nationalism?utm_term=.mr0a8vnL6#.xdQGQDq7P

Quote

 

These new emails and documents, however, clearly show that Breitbart does more than tolerate the most hate-filled, racist voices of the alt-right. It thrives on them, fueling and being fueled by some of the most toxic beliefs on the political spectrum — and clearing the way for them to enter the American mainstream.

It’s a relationship illustrated most starkly by a previously unreleased April 2016 video in which Yiannopoulos sings “America the Beautiful” in a Dallas karaoke bar as admirers, including the white nationalist Richard Spencer, raise their arms in Nazi salutes.

These documents chart the Breitbart alt-right universe. They reveal how the website — and, in particular, Yiannopoulos — links the Mercer family, the billionaires who fund Breitbart, to underpaid trolls who fill it with provocative content, and to extremists striving to create a white ethnostate.

 

 

[Bonnot OG]

Sanders just said Trump is the only one keeping the world from chaos lol. What's scary is she and the rest of the Trump cult really believe that.

[Bonnot OG]

This is an important read.
http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/10/04/25451102/we-snuck-into-seattles-super-secret-white-nationalist-convention

[Morpheus]

I don't think she actually believes it, she knows full well that every single thing she says from that podium is bullshit. Whether it is Dear Leader proaganda or  continually flogging that tax plan which has been exposed as utter garbage, she knows what she is doing.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Sword of Doom said:

And birth control coverage is reversed. I just want to thank along the whiny bernie or busters, the purity seekers, the ones who couldn't "get excited" for allowing Trump to win.

 

Way to allow a generation of people to be under a conservative SCOTUS and progress to actually stop and regress. Thank you for allowing the civil rights of others to be attacked, privileged fools.

I’d go the other way and say, “Way to go, 53% of white women. You did a bag up job picking a man who brags about sexually assaulting women.”