Canon Claude

What would have happened if Margaery had died with Joffrey?

65 posts in this topic

Let’s assume something goes wrong and Margaery also drinks the poisoned wine somehow. Aside from the obvious that she doesn’t marry Tommen and the Reachmen would all want Tyrion dead, what else would be changed regarding Tommen, the role of the Tyrells going forward, and whatever else happens.

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The alliance between Tyrell and Lannister dies with Margaery. It's possible that Tommen could marry one of her cousins, but I doubt that would work.

Tyrion would demand his trial by combat sooner, knowing he's got two of the three judges against him. I don't remember exactly when Jaime got back to KL. Speeding things up like that might make it so that Tyrion doesn't get set free. Varys might not have acted without Jaime's help and orders in that.

Either way the Tyrell armies, money, and food end up leaving KL and going elsewhere. They wouldn't side with the Ironborn so that leaves Stannis or making contact with Daenerys.

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Tyrion and Sansa are again accused of this.

Twyin probably forces Cersei + Willas more.Lannisters and Tyrells still need each other but the alliance is more unstable after Margaery's death. There is no rivalry between Cersei and Margaery. There is no Faith Militant reborn. Tommen is married to another Tyrell. Lannisters are still the best option for Tyrells.

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Breakup of the Seven Kingdoms, almost certainly, with the possibility that Varys lets fAegon back into the realm earlier and marries him to some other Tyrell relation (with the promise of many lands/offices for Mace).

The problem with Cersei marrying anyone, even if she's willing, is that Cersei has literally no claim to the throne.  She's only even grudgingly accepted as Regent because she's the king's mother (who, let us make clear, is considered to be a Baratheon, and through them, a distantly-related Targaryen).  House Lannister has no claim on the Iron Throne and if the continuity of the line goes, then my guess is various factions declare independence.

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On 10/8/2017 at 0:53 AM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

The alliance between Tyrell and Lannister dies with Margaery. It's possible that Tommen could marry one of her cousins, but I doubt that would work.

The alliance wouldn't die, because there's no ready alternative to it.  Neither side has any interest in starting another war.  Mace would certainly grumble at offering one of the cousins as Tommen's bride, and the alliance would be weaker than it otherwise would have been, but it wouldn't end.

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1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

The alliance wouldn't die, because there's no ready alternative to it.  Neither side has any interest in starting another war.  Mace would certainly grumble at offering one of the cousins as Tommen's bride, and the alliance would be weaker than it otherwise would have been, but it wouldn't end.

Frankly I thought the alliance was already weak enough as it was. Not even Tywin got what he wanted out of it every time.

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1 hour ago, Colonel Green said:

Mace would certainly grumble at offering one of the cousins as Tommen's bride, and the alliance would be weaker than it otherwise would have been

Another interesting consequence is how it would affect the other major Reach houses. The Tyrells have been intermarrying the six big houses for 300 years, so any Tyrell Queen would be related to all of them—but some a lot more closely than others.

We know JonConn says he has "friends in the Reach". We don't know who they are. But let's say, for example, that they include Paxter Redwyne, who we know was a strong supporter of the Targaryens. He'd probably be a lot more open to listening to JonConn about Aegon if Tommen married Elinor (Paxter's second cousin once removed and third cousin by marriage) instead of Margy (his niece and grandniece). Of course Desmera (his daughter) would obviously bind him even better than Margy, but she's got much less connection to the Hightowers. And so on.

 

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3 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Frankly I thought the alliance was already weak enough as it was. Not even Tywin got what he wanted out of it every time.

Nobody gets everything they want out of an alliance.  But the parties have every incentive to work together; the alternative is, what, civil war?

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Willas Tyrell shows up in Meereen with ships, 20,000 soldiers, a golden crutch and a winning smile. A little ways down the road Mace leads the Dothraki to a number of decisive victories forever shutting up Olenna. 

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On ‎10‎/‎7‎/‎2017 at 9:33 PM, Canon Claude said:

Let’s assume something goes wrong and Margaery also drinks the poisoned wine somehow. Aside from the obvious that she doesn’t marry Tommen and the Reachmen would all want Tyrion dead, what else would be changed regarding Tommen, the role of the Tyrells going forward, and whatever else happens.

All the more reason why Lady O would never in a million years poison the wine. This is a time for toasts, and since it apparently takes a good 30 seconds for the poison to take affect, Margaery would be a goner even if she broke thousands of years of chivalric tradition and let Joffrey drink first.

Read closely and you'll see that the poison was the in pie, not the wine, and that Tyrion was the target, not Joffrey.

 

 

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16 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Willas Tyrell shows up in Meereen with ships, 20,000 soldiers, a golden crutch and a winning smile. A little ways down the road Mace leads the Dothraki to a number of decisive victories forever shutting up Olenna. 

Lol, the Tyrell opportunism! Wouldn't Loras work better, though? Were he instructed to close his eyes and think of Westeros...

27 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

All the more reason why Lady O would never in a million years poison the wine. This is a time for toasts, and since it apparently takes a good 30 seconds for the poison to take affect, Margaery would be a goner even if she broke thousands of years of chivalric tradition and let Joffrey drink first.

Read closely and you'll see that the poison was the in pie, not the wine, and that Tyrion was the target, not Joffrey.

All it would take is Olenna creating a 30 second distraction and Margaery in the know. Which she most likely is, given her strange indifference to Joffrey's sadism and an even stranger contrast between her cleverness displayed on several occasions and seeming blindness to the shitstorm that Loras' intervention would cause.

BTW, good to see that you acknowledge the 30 second delay, with Joffrey taking a drink, a mouthful and saying a couple of words, that's about right.

 

But no use reminding you of that for umpteenth time, right? Just the same as pointing out that Joffrey as an unintended victim makes GRRM's talk about the dilemma of murdering a thirteen-year old psycho completely moot.

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35 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

All the more reason why Lady O would never in a million years poison the wine. This is a time for toasts, and since it apparently takes a good 30 seconds for the poison to take affect, Margaery would be a goner even if she broke thousands of years of chivalric tradition and let Joffrey drink first.

Read closely and you'll see that the poison was the in pie, not the wine, and that Tyrion was the target, not Joffrey.

Stop abusing this poor horse, it's been dead long enough.

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8 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Wouldn't Loras work better, though? Were he instructed to close his eyes and think of Westeros...

While Loras is more dashing and comely I think he was already a KG member by that point. Either way he was in King's Landing and his absence would probably be noticed.  Plus with Willas already in the Reach he would be in a better position to gather the men and ships needed to impress Daenerys.

I would not be shocked if the Tyrells have their eyes on Dany and it could be part of the reason Willas is still unwed despite being the heir and well past usual marrying age. 

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1 hour ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

While Loras is more dashing and comely I think he was already a KG member by that point. Either way he was in King's Landing and his absence would probably be noticed.  Plus with Willas already in the Reach he would be in a better position to gather the men and ships needed to impress Daenerys.

True enough, Willas would be in a better position for a covert action. However, Loras' position in KL as a KG would be rather problematic, would the Lannisters even want him to remain one? After establishing a precedent with Selmy, it coud be argued that Loras might be released of his vows, too. On the other hand, perhaps they would prefer to keep him close as a sort of hostage, just like Jaime was a hostage to Aerys.

1 hour ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

I would not be shocked if the Tyrells have their eyes on Dany and it could be part of the reason Willas is still unwed despite being the heir and well past usual marrying age. 

I think not, no-one could have predicted Dany's rise to power. But it does one make wonder why Willas was still unmarried - could Dorne be the prize they had their eyes on?

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What would have happened if Margaery had died with Joffrey?

She would journey to a faraway sweet land, where men and women laugh innocently together and feast in the Father's halls until the end of days.

Or, if she had any sins she refused to repent, she'd be consigned to one of the seven hells.

Any other answer is heresy, and will be reported to the High Sparrow.

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Well Baelish wanted to poison Tyrion since he has no reason to kill Joffrey, thus Tyrells had no idea about the poison.

Poison was strangler same as Cressen drinks when trying to poison Melisandre and he wants to say something right after he drinks but he can't, effect is immediate. This means poison was in pigeon pie not in wine since Joffrey drinks wine and says a whole sentence afterwards than eats pie he took from Tyrion's plate. Before that servant puts lemon cream on Tyrion's and Sansa's pigeon pie. Strangler is a crystal that dissolves in liquids, so servant could put it on Tyrion's cream that he put on the pie. It also makes more sense to put strangler in food rather than wine since its easier to choke on food than liquid. And point of using strangler is to make it seem like it was an accident. I Tyrion eats the pie what would most people think? "Oh somebody murdered the drawf with a strangler!" or "Gods punished this lustful, gluttonous, greedy dwarf for his sins by making him choke on a pie." Joffrey would probably laugh and say: "That is what happens when someone opposes The King! Varys would maybe suspect a stranger but I don't think he would have access to body to have private Maester do autopsy, of course he likes Tyrion and knows he is a good person but he doesn't need him for his plot.

So Margaery dying with Joffrey not likely to happen since pie worked immediately and not many people bite the pie from husband's hands when he starts to cough. But let say she would die as well. In that case Tyrells and Lannister's have no choice. Tyrells can't just take their armies and leave for Highgarden and do nothing there, they have no-one else to proclaim for. They offer Lannister's some cousin for Tommen and also marry Cersei and Willas immediately. Tyrion is blamed by the murder all the same and demands trial by combat that he loses. Varys can still arrange for Tyrion to escape and kill Tywin. Cersei stays in KL as regent and doesn't wants to leave for Highgarden. Everything is basically the same.

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Le sigh.

Cressen no longer recalled the name the Asshai’i gave the leaf, or the Lysene poisoners the crystal. In the Citadel, it was simply called the strangler. Dissolved in wine, it would make the muscles of a man’s throat clench tighter than any fist, shutting off his windpipe. They said a victim’s face turned as purple as the little crystal seed from which his death was grown, but so too did a man choking on a morsel of food.

So here you have a "how to use", from a maester. Don't you think that if the strangler could be dissolved e.g. in a gravy or lemon sauce, the maesters wouldn't mention wine specifically?

Also this:

The reason I bring this up is because I think that’s an interesting question of redemption. That’s more like killing Hitler. Does the Queen of Thorns need redemption? Did the Queen of Thorns kill Hitler, or did she murder a 13-year-old boy? Or both? 

The Queen of Thorns had studied Joffrey well enough that she knew that at some point he would get bored with Margaery, and Margaery would be maltreated, the same way that Sansa had been. Whereas if she removed him then her granddaughter might still get the crown but without all of the danger. So is that a case where the end justifies the means? I don’t know. That’s what I want the reader or viewer to wrestle with, and to debate.

If Joffrey is a casualty instead of the intended victim, then this whole question of redemption becomes totally moot because the moral dilemma doesn't exist. Yeah, GRRM puts the a caveat - "no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal" - so there may be more to the poisoning, but his whole talk about the poisoning makes absolutely no sense if Olenna didn't at least want to do the deed. Without an intention to murder, there is no dilemma. And the bolded shows that GRRM is not talking only about the show but the book as well, i.e. both the books and the show have the same perpetrator.

And here:

the poison that is used to kill Joffrey is one that I introduce earlier in the books and its symptoms are similar to choking.

Any idea why GRRM would introduce a rather detailed description of how the strangler is used, and then do it in a totally different way?

The difference between the Cressen and Joffrey poisoning is in tens of seconds. Even fast-acting poisons don't affect two victims of different age and health at exactly the same time. Heck, 

Spoiler

even the Freys in season 7 didn't all drop dead at the very same moment even though they drank the toast at the same moment)

PS The reveal that GRRM might make in the future books is, IMHO, that while Olenna was the mastermind, she didn't put the poison in the chalice herself; there must be a reason why GRRM wrote her as notably short and emphasized that Tyrion couldn't reach the chalice without climbing onto his seat.

 

Edited by Ygrain

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On 08/10/2017 at 4:58 AM, Endymion I Targaryen said:

Tyrion and Sansa are again accused of this.

Twyin probably forces Cersei + Willas more.Lannisters and Tyrells still need each other but the alliance is more unstable after Margaery's death. There is no rivalry between Cersei and Margaery. There is no Faith Militant reborn. Tommen is married to another Tyrell. Lannisters are still the best option for Tyrells.

Agreed also it seems people are forgeting that the Lannisters lose Joffrey which is the same thing as losing Margery so how can the Lannisters be blamed for "Tyrions" betrayal when it impacted them even more so since Joffrey is king. Also Olenna is the one who orchestrated the plan IMO so I believe the alliance lives on like you said between Cersie and Willas and Tommon marrys a Tyrell cousin. 

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Wine is made of water, ethanol and some acids. All of those are polar liquids. Only way for strangler to dissolve in wine (polar liquid) is for strangler to be polar as well. Lemon cream is mostly made of egg, lemon juice, butter and sugar. Eggs (is a bit polar) and lemon juice are polar while butter isn't for the most part but when you mix all together sugar dissolves which means strangle would as well. Just try it put some salt/sugar in any cream you like and it will dissolve. Even if you argue crystal wouldn't dissolve in eggs you can always put it in lemon juice and than add that to eggs.

Cressen was planning on getting a seat next to Melisandre and slipping it into her cup. That is why he taught of wine. Later he is forced to change his plan and you cant really offer someone to share a soup or a pie with cream on it. Martin obviously wants us to think poison was in the wine as do all character but one that mentions the pie.

Also LF has great motives to kill Tyrion and it is beneficial for him that Joffrey stays the King (LF says he hoped Cersei wouldn't ruin the realm in such a short time and that he needs to addapt, if Joffrey stayed the king Cersei wouldn't go insane, yet it feels like LF needs Joffrey to die at some point but he knew he would due to his character). Olenna has motive but why on earth does she needs LF to help her in this plot. You think a experienced schemer like her doesn't have strangler at her disposal and many servants that could execute the plan. You give neckless to a drunkard so he gives it to a child and than Olenna steals a piece of neckless where the strangler is at and put it inside a kings cup. Why all this when she could just bring a strangler in her sleeve like Cressen did.

LF or Olenna have no interest to be together in this plot both can execute it alone. You don't add people to the plot unless you need them other ways the can just betray you.

You could say Olenna was planning this alone but that would explain LF waiting for Sansa on a ship near Kingslanding, so he knew something was going to happen.

Show spoiler:

Spoiler

Please don't mention things from the show because they are 100% irrelevant and make me sick.

 

Edited by Tygett Greenshield

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