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What would have happened if Margaery had died with Joffrey?


Canon Claude

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23 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Except that I never claimed they necessarily planned the whole thing together, and you are also forgetting that little scene with Sansa who is needed to confirm all those terrible rumours.

Nothing that Sansa told Lady Olenna was a rumor or a secret. Joffrey stated in open court in front of numerous high lords and ladies that if Ned confessed he would show him mercy. Then, at the Sept of Baelor no less, Joffrey publicly declared that despite the pleadings of his mother, his intended, and the advice of his small counsel he was taking Ned's head anyway.

Neither are the beatings any big secret. Sansa is seen at court with black eyes and bruised lips. As the queen-to-be, there is no one on the planet but the king who could do this to her and live. But even if there was any doubt, it was removed in the lower baily when Joffrey ordered Sansa stripped and beaten, again in the presence of numerous high lords and ladies, including Olenna's own grandson (or grand-nephew, whatever he is). And this is after she would have gotten an earful on the real Joffrey direct from Loras and Renley.

That dinner conversation was actually Lady O's attempt to learn the truth about Sansa. Having been born in the north and then first sheltered in King's Landing under the watchful eye of her Septa and then shunned by the court after Ned's fall, Sansa is a complete mystery to Lady O. At best, she has reports from court-watchers that she is the pretty, polite, dutiful daughter of Ned Stark, all practiced courtesies and proper etiquette. But Lady O knows better than most that court personas can be easily faked. So she needs to know if Sansa is smart, stupid, a liar, a golddigger -- in short, will she make a valuable addition to House Tyrell or a big PitA.

By finally answering truthfully about Joffrey, Sansa revealed herself as an honest, caring person who would put the safety of a complete stranger above her own needs to be free from Joffrey. And it was right after that that Willas was put on the table.

23 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Then why is the strangler in the hairnet, for shits and giggles?

This is actually a question for you. If Lady O and LF hatched this plan at Highgarden, why bother with the hairnet at all? Why not just give the poison to Lady O?

If the purpose is to frame Sansa, then why is Lady O planning to marry her to Willas after the royal wedding?

 

23 hours ago, Ygrain said:

You must be kidding me. 5 seconds and 15 seconds, for persons of totally different age, health, constitution (and poison dillution) - that's both fucking fast. You, who are so much into real world parallels, should be the first to acknowledge that the onset of symptoms is variable

There is very little difference between the soft palate of a young boy and an old man. No other bodily systems are affected since the text proves the strangler works on contact.

And now that we're on the subject of dilution, please explain how Joffrey's multiple chugs of "deep purple" wine could act more slowly than Cressen's half swallow of normal-looking wine. If you are going to argue that Cressen's wine was in fact the more concentrated, please explain why anyone would value a poison in which just a tiny flake of a crystal is enough to turn a normal amount of wine deeper than deep purple, or after however many hundreds or thousands of years of its existence, nobody hit on the idea that maybe dropping it in crystal form into wine is not the best way to deploy the strangler.

23 hours ago, Ygrain said:

That doesn't automatically equal to letting a lady drink first, especially if you are a king (and with exceptionally bad manners on top of that)

Old lady gets up to get better view of her graddaughter, and she falls down. The granddaughter rushes to check if she's alright. Kof, kof.

Like I said, first or second, Margaery dies. Old lady falls, bride rushes over and the king dies. Hmm, how fortunate. Nobody would suspect a thing. And exactly how is any of this less risky than simply poisoning Joffrey's food at the beginning of the feast?

On ‎10‎/‎15‎/‎2017 at 5:40 PM, Ygrain said:

Except that Lady O is last seen as the pie with doves is being wheeled down the hall, and that's not seconds.

It's actually before the pie is wheeled in, as Aleric of Whatever is singing his song. And this is not the seconds I'm talking about. I'm referring to the mere seconds between the pie-cutting and Tyrion getting his pie. It literally goes cut-doves-cheers-twirl-pie. That can only mean the pies are already plated and very close to the head table, most likely right behind it in the vicinity of Lady O's last known position only a few minutes before.

On ‎10‎/‎15‎/‎2017 at 5:40 PM, Ygrain said:

I don't have the time to search the text but he is pretty much in his wineskin when he encounters Arya and Mycah, and during the wedding feast, he's not exactly sober, either.

He drank wine with Sansa, but it's her head that is swimming, not his. Search all you want, Joffrey has never been sloppy drunk guzzling wine like it was water, especially at public events where his mother and related elders are watching.

On ‎10‎/‎15‎/‎2017 at 5:40 PM, Ygrain said:

Now that's bullshit. Poisoning a terrible person only accidentally doesn't poise any moral dilemma concerning redemption, the-e-nd-justifies-the-means, none of the kind. Those are reserved for intentional killing. 

Ah. So the author who had been planning something for years doesn't know what he is saying. Great.

That is not bullshit, that is the definition of murder. And why would it not be a moral dilemma if you intended to kill a grown man but instead killed his little girl instead. If you intended to run down someone with your car but hit a little kid instead, are you telling me you would not experience any moral qualms about that?

When the author is speaking off-the-cuff probably for the dozenth time that day and you pull one word out of a five-minute response and take it to mean whatever you want it to mean, it's you who doesn't know what you're saying.

On ‎10‎/‎15‎/‎2017 at 5:40 PM, Ygrain said:

Sigh. "Could" ain't good enough. The problem with RL substances causing constriction is that they do not work selectively, and if something will constrict the throat muscles to the point of asphyxation, other muscles will be cramping, as well. Yet, this is not the case with the strangler, it affects only and solely the throat. It is a fantasy poison.

Lol, no there is no real-world strangler. And we don't know that it affects only the throat. So at this point, the wine theory is dependent on nothing but fantasy because people can imagine the strangler does whatever they need it to do in order to support their favorite conclusion. So from this point, we can lump the wine theory with all the other crackpot theories on these boards -- everything from Strong Belwas is Ned Stark to Summer Islanders are actually glamored monkees.

This is the key difference between the wine and the pie: the wine requires endless suppositions and constant dependency on magic and purely fictional constructs, while the pie is supported by actual text and the real-world rules of physics, chemistry and physiology.

 

On ‎10‎/‎15‎/‎2017 at 5:40 PM, Ygrain said:

You guys are really funny. Of course LF wants power; does it somehow exclude an ability to hold a grudge and to exact revenge on those entitled nobles who "stole" what was his? 

BTW, why did Ned become Hand? Because Jon Arryn died. And who killed Jon Arryn, and at whose behest? 

So, let's recapitulate:

- LF has Lysa murder Jon Arryn and frame the Lannisters for that

- LF frames Tyrion for the attempt on Bran

- LF insinuates that Robert knew about the attempt on Bran

- LF delays Ned's departure from KL, which results in the fatal encounter with Jaime (which I suspect LF orchestrated, as well, but have no proof for that)

- LF betrays Ned (and quite possibly whisper in Joff's ear which results in Ned's execution)

Now, how do such actions correspond to his claim that Catelyn  was the only woman he ever loved, when everything he did brought pain and destruction to her family? Those are not actions of a man in love, that's something very, very ugly on the inside.

Well sorry, but you're the one arguing against the claim the LF doesn't hurt people just because he enjoys it. Everything he does is calculated to bring him power, true, and if those he hurts happen to be friends or foes it makes no difference, power is power.

Joffrey, of course, is in no way, shape or form a threat to LF's power. In fact, Joffrey was the ideal vessel to sow chaos into House Lannister and across the entire realm -- certainly a far more chaotic king than Tommen will ever be.

Tyrion, on the other hand, is a clear and present danger. He is probably the only man in the realm with the smarts to unravel LF's embezzlement schemes and he happens to be married to the one person on the planet who can lay claim to Winterfell. By far, he is the greater threat to Littlefinger.

 

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22 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

So why couldn't he make arrangements to cleverly hide Sansa onboard, if it came to that?

The biggest clue that your theory is wrong is that it requires insane convolutions to explain away all the totally unforced indicators that Littlefinger couldn't have known that Joffrey was dead if it wasn't his plan, and that you go to all this trouble for an alternative version of events that isn't an interesting or character-building twist and which undermines the themes GRRM claims to be exploring and the subtle ways he seeds the Tyrell plot and uses it to build up Sansa's perceptiveness.

Cleverly hide a 12yo, red-haired girl on a ship filled with men. And how exactly is he supposed to do that -- stuff her in the bilge I guess.

No matter where he hides her, the risk will always be greater than if he just lets Oswell row her out into the bay. That way, he can watch the mouth of the Blackwater for a time, make sure no dromonds are suddenly in motion and in the dawn light be absolutely certain there is no pursuit.

You aware, aren't you, that a good seven hours has passed between Joffrey's death and the conversation aboard the ship? No matter how badly you want to rationalize it, that is plenty of time for the man who has spies literally crawling all over the Red Keep to get word of what has happened and then use his larger ship with full sails and banks of oarsmen to rendezvous with an old man who has been rowing all night long.

There are no insane convolutions with the pie. The facts are clear:

Joffrey's poisoning is dramatically longer than Cressen's, by several orders of magnitude. Joffrey takes multiple chugs compared to Cressen's half swallow. Joffrey's wine at the end is deep purple while Cressen sees nothing unusual about his. The insane convolutions only arise when you try to explain these facts away with fictional, fantasy poisons and characters suddenly becoming blind to the obvious.

Joffrey's placement of the chalice directly in front of Garlan is an utterly random, completely unpredictable act, as is Joffrey naming Tyrion cup-bearer and all the other twists and turns that the chalice took to provide the perfect poisoning opportunity at exactly the right time. Insane convolutions are the idea that Littlefinger could know any of this ahead of time or that he had multiple dozens of contingency plans at the ready to account for every possible location for the chalice.

Neither Lady O nor Margaery ever express even the slightest bit of concern over Joffrey, nor does Joffrey exhibit even the slightest hostility toward her -- in fact it is the exact opposite. The insane convolution (probably the insanest of all) is the idea that Lady O would choose this moment -- the very last opportunity before the bedding -- to kill him, effectively quashing any possibility of a Tyrell heir to the IT in the next five years at least, and do it in the most risky way imaginable whiile her entire family is surrounded by Lannister guards. And all because maybe, someday, far into the future, Joffrey might hurt Margaery.

The insane convolution is the idea that Lady O and Margaery are lying, as is Joffrey, along with Garlan, Leonette, Mace, Allerie, dozens of trusted servants, and in the end the only person who is telling the truth is Littlefinger of all people.

And when the truth is revealed, you will see what a real plot twist looks like and how it forces people who are so cocksure that they know exactly what the themes are and how they affect characterizations to re-evaluate everything they thought they knew -- and my oh my, won't they feel like fools then. :D

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3 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Trivia to add to the discussion.

LF was in charge of customs in the port Gulltown before he went to KL. I would think that he knows how to move merchandise. He would also know ship captains and ship schedules and perhaps kept up those contacts while he lived in KL. I have to wonder if the Merling King was the ship that transported the jousting dwarfs.

When LF leaves KL to go off to woo Lysa it is written:

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion III      How soon might you leave?"    "On the morrow, if the winds permit. There's a Braavosi galley standing out past the chain, taking on cargo by boat. The Merling King. I'll see her captain about a berth." "You will miss the king's wedding," said Mace Tyrell.

What ship is waiting for Dontos and Sansa after Joffrey’s death? Yep, the Merling King and old Oswell is aboard. This ship also turns up again later in an Alyane chapter in FfC.

A Storm of Swords - Sansa VI    Off the bow of the Merling King stretched a bare and stony strand, windswept, treeless, and uninviting. Even so, it made a welcome sight. They had been a long while clawing their way back on course. The last storm had swept them out of sight of land, and sent such waves crashing over the sides of the galley that Sansa had been certain they were all going to drown. Two men had been swept overboard, she had heard old Oswell saying, and another had fallen from the mast and broken his neck.

A Feast for Crows - Alayne II       The times grow ever more interesting, my sweet, and when the times are interesting you can never have too many swords. The Merling King's returned to Gulltown, and old Oswell had some tales to tell."

 

While LF is an opportunist, it also seems that he has a, I dunna know, network.

You bet he has a network, and not only at sea:

Quote

The Keepers of the Keys were his, all four. The King's Counter and the King's Scales were men he'd named. The officers in charge of all three mints. Harbor pursers, wine factors; nine of every ten belonged to Littlefinger.

And since it seems we are free in this thread to quote references in the show to inform the characterizations in the book:

Quote

Do you see that boy there? One of Varys's little birds. The spider has taken a great interest in your comings and goings. Now look there. That one belongs to the queen. And do you see that septa pretending to read her book?

Varys or the queen?

No, she's one of mine.
 

Littlefinger has plenty of ways of know what happened in the throneroom, and he has plenty of time to get the news and rendezvous with Sansa out in the bay,

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1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

Joffrey's poisoning is dramatically longer than Cressen's, by several orders of magnitude. Joffrey takes multiple chugs compared to Cressen's half swallow. Joffrey's wine at the end is deep purple while Cressen sees nothing unusual about his. The insane convolutions only arise when you try to explain these facts away with fictional, fantasy poisons and characters suddenly becoming blind to the obvious.

What characters are "suddenly blind to the obvious"?

The assumption that the Strangler poison will react the exact same in everybody, particularly since this is a fictional work where the author arranges things for literary effect, is unfounded.  That's precisely the sort of nitpicking that gave rise to this whole theory, not any thematic or character purpose.

Quote

Joffrey's placement of the chalice directly in front of Garlan is an utterly random, completely unpredictable act, as is Joffrey naming Tyrion cup-bearer and all the other twists and turns that the chalice took to provide the perfect poisoning opportunity at exactly the right time. Insane convolutions are the idea that Littlefinger could know any of this ahead of time or that he had multiple dozens of contingency plans at the ready to account for every possible location for the chalice.

We know that Littlefinger planned to instigate a fight between Tyrion and Joffrey, which he could quite reasonably expect.  What, if anything, more he expected, we don't know.  It's quite dramatically convenient how things go, indeed.

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Neither Lady O nor Margaery ever express even the slightest bit of concern over Joffrey, nor does Joffrey exhibit even the slightest hostility toward her -- in fact it is the exact opposite.

Analyzed by Sansa, who knows what Joffrey is and his nature.  It's only a matter of time.

That Sansa so astutely picks apart the political setup's inherent instability in a way that Littlefinger later backs up is GRRM showing us her burgeoning ability.

Quote

The insane convolution (probably the insanest of all) is the idea that Lady O would choose this moment -- the very last opportunity before the bedding -- to kill him, effectively quashing any possibility of a Tyrell heir to the IT in the next five years at least, and do it in the most risky way imaginable whiile her entire family is surrounded by Lannister guards. And all because maybe, someday, far into the future, Joffrey might hurt Margaery.

It isn't "the far future".

Quote

The insane convolution is the idea that Lady O and Margaery are lying, as is Joffrey, along with Garlan, Leonette, Mace, Allerie, dozens of trusted servants, and in the end the only person who is telling the truth is Littlefinger of all people.

Uh, what?  The only people who are for sure in on the assassination are Margaery and Olenna.  Mace sure as well wasn't, and where did you get "trusted servants" from?

Like it or not, Littlefinger's version of events is backed up by everything else we see in multiple POVs.  Indeed, we have a remarkable range of confirmations for the events of the Purple Wedding considering we don't actually have a perpetrator POV.

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1 hour ago, falcotron said:

What glamor? I'm pretty sure I saw Mike Nesmith there. Who knows all the properties he bought with that Liquid Paper inheritance?

What's with the American spelling? I'm a Yank, who with some affectation, uses British spelling - my Grand-Mum was from Ulster is my excuse, not to mention my Mother's wild anglophilia.

Mike Nesmith... not so sure. But Davy Jones, as Joffery is interesting, but he's already dead [sad]. And Peter Tork as LF - right on! Micky Dolenz as Bronn is a bit of a stretch

[btw, even more off topic, but Donald Sutherland is the missing link from another thread - if only for a day...]

 

OT, are there any other marriageable women in the Tyrell line? The Lannister-Tyrell dynastic marriage seems to hinge on Maergory...

 

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33 minutes ago, Wild Bill said:

What's with the American spelling? I'm a Yank, who with some affectation, uses British spelling - my Grand-Mum was from Ulster is my excuse, not to mention my Mother's wild anglophilia.

The word "glamor" never looks right to me with or without the "u", so I just copy whichever wrong-looking spelling the last person used. I quoted John Suburbs, who spelled it American-style, so I did the same. Anyway, I'm not a pretentious American anglophile like you, I'm a pretentious American deutschophile, so instead of adding spurious "u"s to words, I just use too many compounded mammothwords.

33 minutes ago, Wild Bill said:

[btw, even more off topic, but Donald Sutherland is the missing link from another thread - if only for a day...]

Start the Revolution Without Me? Now I have to rewatch that.

33 minutes ago, Wild Bill said:

OT, are there any other marriageable women in the Tyrell line? The Lannister-Tyrell dynastic marriage seems to hinge on Maergory...

I like that you use "OT" to mark when you're actually on-topic…

Anyway, the best option is probably Mace's niece Desmera Redwyne. 

On top of Desmera's mother being Mace's sister, her father is Mace's cousin and Olenna's nephew Paxter Redwyne, who's also Mace's best friend and most loyal vassal.

She doesn't have the Tyrell name, but after Margy, the closest young female relative to Mace with the Tyrell name is Elinor, a second cousin once removed, and they already married her off to a hero of Blackwater anyway.

We know the Lannisters consider Desmera a worthy match, because Stafford was begging Paxter to marry Desmera to Daven until Tywin forced him to marry Daven to the Freys.

And Mace is Mace, so you can make up for marrying his niece rather than his daughter by giving him a couple extra fancy-sounding titles. Did I say you were only Master of Ships and Lord Admiral? No, no, my mistake, Grand Admiral Mace, you're Lord High Master of Ships, and you get to appoint the Lord Admiral as someone underneath you.

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1 hour ago, falcotron said:

The word "glamor" never looks right to me with or without the "u", so I just copy whichever wrong-looking spelling the last person used. I quoted John Suburbs, who spelled it American-style, so I did the same. Anyway, I'm not a pretentious American anglophile like you, I'm a pretentious American deutschophile, so instead of adding spurious "u"s to words, I just use too many compounded mammothwords.

Start the Revolution Without Me? Now I have to rewatch that.

I like that you use "OT" to mark when you're actually on-topic…

Anyway, the best option is probably Mace's niece Desmera Redwyne. 

On top of Desmera's mother being Mace's sister, her father is Mace's cousin and Olenna's nephew Paxter Redwyne, who's also Mace's best friend and most loyal vassal.

She doesn't have the Tyrell name, but after Margy, the closest young female relative to Mace with the Tyrell name is Elinor, a second cousin once removed, and they already married her off to a hero of Blackwater anyway.

We know the Lannisters consider Desmera a worthy match, because Stafford was begging Paxter to marry Desmera to Daven until Tywin forced him to marry Daven to the Freys.

And Mace is Mace, so you can make up for marrying his niece rather than his daughter by giving him a couple extra fancy-sounding titles. Did I say you were only Master of Ships and Lord Admiral? No, no, my mistake, Grand Admiral Mace, you're Lord High Master of Ships, and you get to appoint the Lord Admiral as someone underneath you.

We cannot start the revolution without looking for Orsen Wells and his useful view of OT, not to mention the glamour surrounding him...

On topic. ;)

I think you may be underestimating Mace. He might even be considered the Kingmaker, if he ever actually succeeded, that is. He offered out Maegory to Robert, but that didn't quite work out. But he did marry her to King Renly - score! OK, that didn't quite work out. Nor did Maegory with Joffery, or with Tommen (still to be seen), but still!

1) Mace is clearly the Kingmaker here - no doubt he put Maegory in play, and wed her to Renly after the notion of distracting Robert with a bit of stuff didn't quite work out. Them he pounced on the notion of Maegory + Joffery.

2) Some will argue about Olleana influence (but that's HBO talk) - Mace arranged for Maegory + Joffery, and then Tommen. Much better, and shuts cranky Olleana up for a bit.

3) Mace, slyly, sets himself with lots of high-status positions, including Master of Coin, which gives him the great privilege of attending festivals in Hamburg, Venice, and Edinburgh [nb, my translation service is down, so I'm not sure, exactly, what these place names are vs Westeros or Esteros].

So, is Mace, Mace? Or is Desmera Redwyne important? Inquiring minds want to know...

 

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10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Nothing that Sansa told Lady Olenna was a rumor or a secret. Joffrey stated in open court in front of numerous high lords and ladies that if Ned confessed he would show him mercy. Then, at the Sept of Baelor no less, Joffrey publicly declared that despite the pleadings of his mother, his intended, and the advice of his small counsel he was taking Ned's head anyway.

Neither are the beatings any big secret. Sansa is seen at court with black eyes and bruised lips. As the queen-to-be, there is no one on the planet but the king who could do this to her and live. But even if there was any doubt, it was removed in the lower baily when Joffrey ordered Sansa stripped and beaten, again in the presence of numerous high lords and ladies, including Olenna's own grandson (or grand-nephew, whatever he is). And this is after she would have gotten an earful on the real Joffrey direct from Loras and Renley.

That dinner conversation was actually Lady O's attempt to learn the truth about Sansa. Having been born in the north and then first sheltered in King's Landing under the watchful eye of her Septa and then shunned by the court after Ned's fall, Sansa is a complete mystery to Lady O. At best, she has reports from court-watchers that she is the pretty, polite, dutiful daughter of Ned Stark, all practiced courtesies and proper etiquette. But Lady O knows better than most that court personas can be easily faked. So she needs to know if Sansa is smart, stupid, a liar, a golddigger -- in short, will she make a valuable addition to House Tyrell or a big PitA.

By finally answering truthfully about Joffrey, Sansa revealed herself as an honest, caring person who would put the safety of a complete stranger above her own needs to be free from Joffrey. And it was right after that that Willas was put on the table.

While you are right that the conversation was about Sansa herself, too, you are pretty much exaggerating the visible signs of the beating. I don't recall a mention of a back eye, can you provide a quote? A split lip is there, and bleading ear, and she asks for powder to mask a bruise as well as wears long sleeves to cover them, but besides the stripping incident, none of the abuse takes place publically, so it is the word of Sansa Stark that eventually confirms the rumours and seals Joffrey's fate.

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

This is actually a question for you. If Lady O and LF hatched this plan at Highgarden, why bother with the hairnet at all? Why not just give the poison to Lady O?

Don't put words in my mouth. In Highgarden it was that Olenna heard the rumours; what arrangements, when and through whom is unknown.

If the hairnet was insignificant, GRRM wouldn telegraph the poisoning by writing a vision of a maiden with purple serpents in her hair - and BTW, even if you were right about Tyrion as the victim and the pie, you'd still have to explain the purpose of the vision.

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If the purpose is to frame Sansa, then why is Lady O planning to marry her to Willas after the royal wedding?

See above - that depends on the timing and details of the arrangements. Meaning, at the point when she offers Willas, she may not know, or intend, Sansa to be a potential scapegoat, and even if she does, it's just a contingency plan, in case something went wrong, and in that case it is much better to lose a future daughter-in-law than you own life.

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

There is very little difference between the soft palate of a young boy and an old man. No other bodily systems are affected since the text proves the strangler works on contact.

Please, learn some biology. Of course other systems are inolved, or do you claim that you have raw muscles in your throat? The poison gets in contact with the mucosae and muscles constrict because of a signal in neural pathways.

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

And now that we're on the subject of dilution, please explain how Joffrey's multiple chugs of "deep purple" wine could act more slowly than Cressen's half swallow of normal-looking wine. If you are going to argue that Cressen's wine was in fact the more concentrated, please explain why anyone would value a poison in which just a tiny flake of a crystal is enough to turn a normal amount of wine deeper than deep purple, or after however many hundreds or thousands of years of its existence, nobody hit on the idea that maybe dropping it in crystal form into wine is not the best way to deploy the strangler.

I have no idea what you are trying to say here because it doesn't make any sense.

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It's actually before the pie is wheeled in, as Aleric of Whatever is singing his song. And this is not the seconds I'm talking about. I'm referring to the mere seconds between the pie-cutting and Tyrion getting his pie.

And what would you have GRRM write, the exact timing? Ever heard about skipping meaningless events in writing? SHould he be recording every breath and every fidget, too?

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It literally goes cut-doves-cheers-twirl-pie. That can only mean the pies are already plated and very close to the head table, most likely right behind it in the vicinity of Lady O's last known position only a few minutes before.

It means absolutely nothing. It is merely a flow of the narrative without focusing on every single second, which you are somehow unable to grasp, or admit.

 

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

He drank wine with Sansa, but it's her head that is swimming, not his. Search all you want, Joffrey has never been sloppy drunk guzzling wine like it was water, especially at public events where his mother and related elders are watching.

Don't put words in my mouth again. On both occasion, with Sansa and the wedding, it is clear that alcohol affect his restraint, poor as it is even when sober.

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

That is not bullshit, that is the definition of murder. And why would it not be a moral dilemma if you intended to kill a grown man but instead killed his little girl instead. If you intended to run down someone with your car but hit a little kid instead, are you telling me you would not experience any moral qualms about that?

More BS. GRRM compares killing Joffrey to killing Hitler before he could commit his atrocities, not to killing an innocent by accident.

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

When the author is speaking off-the-cuff probably for the dozenth time that day and you pull one word out of a five-minute response and take it to mean whatever you want it to mean, it's you who doesn't know what you're saying.

Sheesh, I didn't know GRRM was making interviews all day long.

If you want to discredit the author's own words, you need to try harder.

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Lol, no there is no real-world strangler. And we don't know that it affects only the throat.

Funny, we are told just that. Repeatedly. Plus we have the description of the muscles of Joffrey's throat. I'll find you the quotes when I get back home.

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So at this point, the wine theory is dependent on nothing but fantasy because people can imagine the strangler does whatever they need it to do in order to support their favorite conclusion. So from this point, we can lump the wine theory with all the other crackpot theories on these boards -- everything from Strong Belwas is Ned Stark to Summer Islanders are actually glamored monkees.

No comment.

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

This is the key difference between the wine and the pie: the wine requires endless suppositions and constant dependency on magic and purely fictional constructs, while the pie is supported by actual text and the real-world rules of physics, chemistry and physiology.

You should educate yourself about those RL sciences in the first place; it might occur to you why the time when a substance starts affecting you is always stated as a range instead of a single precise number.

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Well sorry, but you're the one arguing against the claim the LF doesn't hurt people just because he enjoys it. Everything he does is calculated to bring him power, true, and if those he hurts happen to be friends or foes it makes no difference, power is power.

Yeah, and he is totally indifferent when someone he dislikes gets beheaded and the like. Try the other leg.

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Joffrey, of course, is in no way, shape or form a threat to LF's power. In fact, Joffrey was the ideal vessel to sow chaos into House Lannister and across the entire realm -- certainly a far more chaotic king than Tommen will ever be.

And he would also be adult in three years, and much more difficult to control, as he was going all Aerys. Tommen is going to be a minor much longer, and who knows what might happen during all those years, with such a nice and gullible boy. Which, by the way, is stated in the books quite plainly.

10 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Tyrion, on the other hand, is a clear and present danger. He is probably the only man in the realm with the smarts to unravel LF's embezzlement schemes and he happens to be married to the one person on the planet who can lay claim to Winterfell. By far, he is the greater threat to Littlefinger.

Oh, sure that he is a threat. And he gets removed in a way that doesn't connect him to LF in any possible way. A masterful move.

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1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

If the hairnet was insignificant, GRRM wouldn telegraph the poisoning by writing a vision of a maiden with purple serpents in her hair - and BTW, even if you were right about Tyrion as the victim and the pie, you'd still have to explain the purpose of the vision.

Yes because all the visions and prophecies really happen, and when they do they happen exactly as in the vision.

Quote

Please, learn some biology. Of course other systems are inolved, or do you claim that you have raw muscles in your throat? The poison gets in contact with the mucosae and muscles constrict because of a signal in neural pathways.

So speed of neural pathways impulses is 0.9–89.41 m/s which means both react relatively in really short period of time. Something causes muscles to contract really hard and since we saw how fast it worked on Cressen we know immune system cannot do anything against this type of poison it is like (regarding man's health and speed of death) being stabbed with a knife in your throat if you are Cressen or the Mountain you will die really fast. 

And for wine being only thing that dissolves the strangler here is the textual proof that this is not true. Dothraki don't like salty oceans. 90% of wine is water. Water is polar and melts polar crystals. Salt is a crystal as it is the Strangler. This makes strangler dissolve-able  in all polar liquids, which is also lemon cream put on Tyrion's pie.

2 hours ago, Ygrain said:

And he would also be adult in three years, and much more difficult to control, as he was going all Aerys. Tommen is going to be a minor much longer, and who knows what might happen during all those years, with such a nice and gullible boy. Which, by the way, is stated in the books quite plainly.

He would be adult in 3 years and he was going to be like Aerys. Remind me what happened to the realm when Aerys was ruling? Rebellion was it? Rebellion is kinda chaos? Tommen is a boy that would be taking council from Tywin and Tyrells and Tywin would make him his puppet and would rule in his stead for long years bringing realm back together. Joffrey was surrounded by Cersei and Robert who were't the best parents and educators for a future king.

@Ygrain Can you explain how did Olenna poison Joffrey with poison for Sansa's hairnet while not being connected with LF (you also said she didn't even know LF was behind providing poison if I remember correctly). Only explanation I see here is that she saw Sansa's hairnet and say oh one of those must be a strangler, let's kill Joffrey.

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11 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

The assumption that the Strangler poison will react the exact same in everybody, particularly since this is a fictional work where the author arranges things for literary effect, is unfounded.  That's precisely the sort of nitpicking that gave rise to this whole theory, not any thematic or character purpose.

Pretty sure whole plot making no sense gave rise to this theory. Olenna and LF have no reason to work together and LF has no reason to kill Joffrey and many to kill Tyrion (which he already attempted with Mandon Moore at Battle of Blackwater).

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51 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

Pretty sure whole plot making no sense gave rise to this theory. Olenna and LF have no reason to work together and LF has no reason to kill Joffrey and many to kill Tyrion (which he already attempted with Mandon Moore at Battle of Blackwater).

And yet, we know that they did work together (whether directly or indirectly, i.e., Littlefinger manipulating Olenna unbeknownst to her), because Olenna takes the poison from Sansa's hairnet, which was given to her by Dontos, who is Littlefinger's man.

Killing Joffrey stabilizes the realm in the short term, which Littlefinger later states he wanted, as he would have preferred more time to enact his plans.

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15 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

This is actually a question for you. If Lady O and LF hatched this plan at Highgarden, why bother with the hairnet at all? Why not just give the poison to Lady O?

If the purpose is to frame Sansa, then why is Lady O planning to marry her to Willas after the royal wedding?

Because, as GRRM explained in his interviews, Sansa being framed was the fallback plan.  Plan A was that Joffrey be presumed to have choked.  That's why she has the hairnet, in case Plan B is needed (it's unnecessary, otherwise), and why the Tyrells were planning to wait until after the wedding rather than just asking for Sansa upfront, which Tywin later admits they could easily have done.

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3 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

And yet, we know that they did work together (whether directly or indirectly, i.e., Littlefinger manipulating Olenna unbeknownst to her), because Olenna takes the poison from Sansa's hairnet, which was given to her by Dontos, who is Littlefinger's man.

Killing Joffrey stabilizes the realm in the short term, which Littlefinger later states he wanted, as he would have preferred more time to enact his plans.

No we don't know that.

Does he though let me check what exactly he says.

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7 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

And yet, we know that they did work together (whether directly or indirectly, i.e., Littlefinger manipulating Olenna unbeknownst to her), because Olenna takes the poison from Sansa's hairnet, which was given to her by Dontos, who is Littlefinger's man.

Killing Joffrey stabilizes the realm in the short term, which Littlefinger later states he wanted, as he would have preferred more time to enact his plans.

Show interview.

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  • Description of the mechanism of the strangler, from Cressen prologue:

Dissolved in wine, it would make the muscles of a man’s throat clench tighter than any fist, shutting off his windpipe.

  • Description of Joffrey's death:

Joffrey began to claw at his throat, his nails tearing bloody gouges in the flesh. Beneath the skin, the muscles stood out hard as stone.

Joffrey is first standing, then on his knees, clawing at his throat, looking at Tyrion, pointing his hand - no other part of body is described as affect by the poison.

 

Also:


“Pycelle,” Tyrion called out, risking his father’s wrath, “could any of these poisons choke off a man’s breath?”
“No. For that, you must turn to a rarer poison. When I was a boy at the Citadel, my teachers named it simply the strangler.”

The process was slow and difficult, the necessaries costly and hard to acquire.


That much why the strangler is apparently not a part of everyone's first poison kit.

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2 hours ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

Hard to acquire probably means hard to get all the materials and make one. But someone like Olenna could get one in Highgarden or KL.

Unless you have a quote confirming the existence of an alchemist's shop in KL or Highgarden, then the actual quotes about the strangler as rare and difficult to come by because of the ingredients and lengthy process take precedence.

Also, you need to prove that Olenna has a knowledge of poisons in the first place. Meaning, you need to produce a quote, not an assumption of yours.

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4 hours ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

Yes because all the visions and prophecies really happen, and when they do they happen exactly as in the vision.

Well, go back to what Ghost of High Heart says about Baelon's murder and Red Wedding and tell me she's not right.

4 hours ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

So speed of neural pathways impulses is 0.9–89.41 m/s which means both react relatively in really short period of time. Something causes muscles to contract really hard and since we saw how fast it worked on Cressen we know immune system cannot do anything against this type of poison

Immune system is designed to fight pathogens, not poisons. Resistance to toxic substances would be more about the body's biochemistry and the ability of tissues to resist/survive damage. IMHO, because this is far beyond my expertise in medicine.

4 hours ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

it is like (regarding man's health and speed of death) being stabbed with a knife in your throat if you are Cressen or the Mountain you will die really fast. 

You will die really fast but not at exactly the same time, either.

4 hours ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

And for wine being only thing that dissolves the strangler here is the textual proof that this is not true. Dothraki don't like salty oceans. 90% of wine is water. Water is polar and melts polar crystals. Salt is a crystal as it is the Strangler. This makes strangler dissolve-able  in all polar liquids, which is also lemon cream put on Tyrion's pie.

What textual proof, is there a quote about someone dumping the strangler into the sea? 

The strangler doesn't exist in real world. It dissolves in what GRRM says it does. 

And since it's purple, dissolving in lemon cream will produce the same effect as dropping in blackberry juice, which you definitely do not want when you want to poison someone. Hint: red wine hides the colouring.

4 hours ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

He would be adult in 3 years and he was going to be like Aerys. Remind me what happened to the realm when Aerys was ruling? Rebellion was it? Rebellion is kinda chaos? Tommen is a boy that would be taking council from Tywin and Tyrells and Tywin would make him his puppet and would rule in his stead for long years bringing realm back together. Joffrey was surrounded by Cersei and Robert who were't the best parents and educators for a future king.

Which realm, the one currently torn into several part by civil war? Remember why Tyrion was in KL instead of Tywin?

4 hours ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

@Ygrain Can you explain how did Olenna poison Joffrey with poison for Sansa's hairnet while not being connected with LF (you also said she didn't even know LF was behind providing poison if I remember correctly). Only explanation I see here is that she saw Sansa's hairnet and say oh one of those must be a strangler, let's kill Joffrey.

I suggested it as a possible scenario, so let's presume:

Olenna gets in touch with someone who can obtain the strangler for her. However, the person is cautious and clever, and figures out that someone of importance is to be offed. He refuses to give her the poison directly because s/he doesn't want to be connected to Olenna or the poisoning, so he offers that someone unsuspecting is used as an unwitting carrier, and promises to arrange such a package of the poison that it won't raise any suspicion, Olenna should just name the opportunity and the person, and he, having his contacts, will arrange that. He is, of course, LF's man and acting on LF's instructions the whole time.

BTW, something that hasn't been brought up here: Taena Merryweather who claimed to have seen Tyrion drop something in Joff's wine. If she was paid by LF to do that, then Tyrion was as good as dead without LF having to move as much as a finger.

 

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4 hours ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

Hard to acquire probably means hard to get all the materials and make one. But someone like Olenna could get one in Highgarden or KL.

Here’s the thing with the poison. Show watchers think it was a liquid in a vile attached to a necklace worn around the neck of Sansa.

Book readers think that the poison crystals are mounted on a hair net given to Sansa via Dontos from LF.

The description of her hair net:

A Clash of Kings - Sansa VIII          " Ser Dontos fumbled in his pouch and drew out a silvery spiderweb, dangling it between his thick fingers.   It was a hair net of fine-spun silver, the strands so thin and delicate the net seemed to weigh no more than a breath of air when Sansa took it in her fingers.     Small gems were set wherever two strands crossed, so dark they drank the moonlight.     "What stones are these?"     "Black amethysts from Asshai. The rarest kind, a deep true purple by daylight."

 

The stranger poison as described by Cressen:

A Clash of Kings - Prologue       On the bottom shelf behind a row of salves in squat clay jars he found a vial of indigo glass, no larger than his little finger.   <snip>   he pulled the stopper and spilled out the vial's contents. A dozen crystals, no larger than seeds, rattled across the parchment he'd been reading. They shone like jewels in the candlelight, so purple that the maester found himself thinking that he had never truly seen the color before.<snip>  He touched one of the crystals lightly with the tip of his little finger. Such a small thing to hold the power of life and death.      It was made from a certain plant that grew only on the islands of the Jade Sea, half a world away. The leaves had to be aged, and soaked in a wash of limes and sugar water and certain rare spices from the Summer Isles. Afterward they could be discarded, but the potion must be thickened with ash and allowed to crystallize. The process was slow and difficult, the necessaries costly and hard to acquire. The alchemists of Lys knew the way of it, though, and the Faceless Men of Braavos . . . and the maesters of his order as well, though it was not something talked about beyond the walls of the Citadel. All the world knew that a maester forged his silver link when he learned the art of healing—but the world preferred to forget that men who knew how to heal also knew how to kill.

 

I have a problem with the poison being in the hair net. The reason being either all the sparkles were poison, making it a verra expensive hair net or a person would need to know exactly which sparkle was the poison.

Yes, it is possible a person could buy the poison. It would be hard to come by (rare) and expensive. Or a person could simply go to their maester’s supply shelf.

 

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