What would have happened if Margaery had died with Joffrey?

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

25 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

If you are talking about this it is obvious he is talking about Ser Dontos.

Yes. However, please just bear until the end of the paragraph, actually not even that far...

Quote

Your disappearance will make them suspect you in Joffrey’s death.

Here, I think that's a justified assumption, Littlefinger is talking about Joffrey.

[Tygett Lannister]

Ups didn't notice that somehow. Well yes than if he couldn't hear the bells he couldn't know unless there was someone who informed him faster than Sansa escaped, since we know she had to change and talked with lady Tanda ...

[John Suburbs]

19 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

Ups didn't notice that somehow. Well yes than if he couldn't hear the bells he couldn't know unless there was someone who informed him faster than Sansa escaped, since we know she had to change and talked with lady Tanda ...

Not only that, but Oswell has literally been rowing for hours before LF's ship finally appears: "The eastern sky was vague with the first hint of dawn..." Plenty of time for LF to have been close enough to KL for a fast cutter to bring him all the news he needs. Heck, he might have even been tied up on the docks.

Once again, the absurd reasoning that people use to justify the wine. As if Littlefinger, on the most momentous night of his life, the single most important, riskiest and consequential action he's ever taken, would have no eyes and ears in the Red Keep and no possible way to find out what has happened other than the reliable Ser Dontos. His plan is to set all of this in motion and then literally sit on his boat, all night long in the pitch dark way out in the bay and just wait for Sansa to come rowing up out of the mist. He has absolutely no reason to think something could possibly go wrong with this cockamamie plan, that Lady O or Garlan or any one of these "loyal servants" would get caught, spill the beans under torture and that the bay is now swarming with royal ships looking to drag him back to the capital in chains. Absurd.

 

[Colonel Green]

42 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Not only that, but Oswell has literally been rowing for hours before LF's ship finally appears: "The eastern sky was vague with the first hint of dawn..." Plenty of time for LF to have been close enough to KL for a fast cutter to bring him all the news he needs. Heck, he might have even been tied up on the docks.

And once again, if he had set up any of that, he could have picked up Sansa much sooner.

Essentially, you've contorted all these unseen events to explain how Littlefinger could know something he from the text has no way of knowing, all to set up a twist that doesn't serve the characters or themes and which undermines both of the aforesaid.

[nara]

Mace adopts a niece, who marries Tommen and all continues as it did.  However, since the niece would not be as smart as Marg, Olenna and Loras would play a more obvious role in trying to control Tommen.

[Ygrain]

On 13. 10. 2017 at 9:50 PM, John Suburbs said:

Lol, a 30-second distraction. Lady O has to first get Joffrey to drink first, breaking thousands of years of tradition, then before Margy takes her turn she has to create some kind of commotion for a half-minute, only to have Joffrey drop dead, at which point Lady O turns to Cersei and Tywin and says "whew, it's a good thing that happened or Margaery would be dead, too. Tough luck for you."

What tradition are you talking about here? That ladies drink first, before the king? No such tradition is ever mentioned. Ever. It's just a fabrication of yours, just as Olenna hovering behind Tyrion's shoulder or a special table for serving individual portions. Zero support.

Besides, it's not like Joffrey only drinks when toasted to.

On 13. 10. 2017 at 10:03 PM, John Suburbs said:

All the rest of your post is irrelevant. The show is not the book and the book is not the show, and SSMs where Martin is referencing the show, the book and historical precedence can hardly be taken as proof of anything.

If you actually bothered to read the interview, or at least the quotes, you would notice that the both the book and show audience is presented with the same dilemma: the justification of murdering a 13-year-old kid. Meaning, the element of Joff's intentional murder is the same in both media. 

On 14. 10. 2017 at 0:37 AM, Tygett Greenshield said:

Yes GRRM's world his rules, that is what he is doing. His world is like a planet in our galaxy that we don't know about. Everything in ASoIaF can be explained with science. Yes GRRM is also writing a physics textbook in ASoIaF. GRRM didn't say strangler dissolves in wine, it is what Cressen was thinking at the moment, and it is completely impossible for strangler to dissolve only in wine, unless this is Harry Potter.

Can you show me a real-world poison that works by making the muscles in the throat constrict, please? A strong allergic reaction can make people suffocate like that but it's because of the swelling of the mucosae, it has nothing to do with setting muscles in a cramp.

On 14. 10. 2017 at 0:37 AM, Tygett Greenshield said:

If you did or did not it matters not. LF doesn't molest people because he enjoys it he just ignores morality when trying to achieve something, everything is done for achieving his goals. Killing someone just to "pull their noses" and risking being caught is far out of his character. LF has no ego, he wants people to disrespect him because it makes them underestimate him and he can manipulate them without a problem.

Then you're missing an important part of his characterisation. LF is the one who set the conflict between the Starks and Lannisters in motion, by pinning Jon Arryn's murder on Cersei, and kept fuelling it until full escalation and Ned's death - in other words, he brought about tragedy and loss to the woman who was supposedly the love of his life , and he brought down the house that "stole" her from him. That suggests an immense grudge on his part - if he wanted just chaos, why specifically the Starks who are so far off? Why not kick the anthill just between the Lannisters and Baratheons, and add the Tyrells, who had the eyes on Robert's crown back then?

On 14. 10. 2017 at 0:37 AM, Tygett Greenshield said:

Well most of what we post on this forums is fanfiction, it is what we predict from things we read in the books and how feudal society was behaving. And yes usually best schemers made it look like it was an accident (choking) or by poison. From that you can assume a experienced schemer like Olenna had her own stash of poisons. And if there was a small doubt in her whether Joffrey is in fact a monster she would definitely take it to Kingslanding.

No. If you go by what the text says, it's an analysis. If you go by what the text says and try to decipher a past/ future course based on it, it's a theory. If an analysis or a theory needs to rely on something that is never stated in the books and cannot even be inferred from other situations in the books, it's fanfiction. You can call it by any other word if you'd prefer, but it changes nothing about its zero support in the text in any possible way.

Stating that a person who has no qualms manipulating people to his/her benefit automatically has no qualms about poisoning people and automatically possesses a stash of poisons to carry with him/her wherever she goes, is fanfiction.

Besides: we know that the hairnet did indeed contain the poison, from the GoHH's visions - a maid with purple serpents in her hair. We also know that LF volunteered to be the one to broker the marriage with the Tyrells, and that he used this opportunity to spread rumours in Highgarden about Joffrey. No, LF had no motive to kill Joffrey, but he made sure that the Tyrells had one, and Sansa receives the hairnet as soon as the marriage between Joff and Marge is officially proclaimed (and she's not married to Tyrion yet).

On 14. 10. 2017 at 0:37 AM, Tygett Greenshield said:

 Tywin's son that Tywin doesn't even wants it to be his son or maybe believes it is Aerys' son. 

Yet for this son's abduction, Tywin sent his hounds to pester the Riverlands. Tywin detests Tyrion, but at the same time, won't let anyone touch him because he is a Lannister, and harming a Lannister is a direct blow to Tywin's pride. He's the only one who can abuse Lannisters, won't let anyone else get away with the notion that they might lay a single finger on a Lannister. That's why.

On 14. 10. 2017 at 0:37 AM, Tygett Greenshield said:

"The following interview with Game of Thrones author George R.R. Martin discusses a major plot point in Sunday’s second episode of season 4." first sentence in the link you sent, this is regarding the show not the books.

Sigh. Read it all, please. He discusses both.

On 14. 10. 2017 at 0:37 AM, Tygett Greenshield said:

Didn't really need that good of a timing, he could be killed as soon as betrothal was arranged. You think if he died sooner Magaery Tommen marridge wouldn't happen? You don't need to have Joffrey as a target to have this dilemma as long as most people think Joffrey was the target.

That would depend on the circumstances of Joffrey's death. You can't poison a king at a family dinner, with only a dozen people present. Also, if you let the wedding ceremony take place, there is no danger of a suspicion that you didn't want it to take place (just like with the Red Wedding)

 

[Tygett Lannister]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

Yet for this son's abduction, Tywin sent his hounds to pester the Riverlands. Tywin detests Tyrion, but at the same time, won't let anyone touch him because he is a Lannister, and harming a Lannister is a direct blow to Tywin's pride. He's the only one who can abuse Lannisters, won't let anyone else get away with the notion that they might lay a single finger on a Lannister. That's why.

His son has been harmed and Lannister pride is hurt. If Lannister chokes on food and dies, he harmed himself, nobody is disrespecting Lannisters here. Death by choking on food wasn't laughable as it is today, people didn't know how to save someone that is choking, they might only say Tyrion that gluttonous monster, but they were saying that even before he died.

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

Can you show me a real-world poison that works by making the muscles in the throat constrict, please? A strong allergic reaction can make people suffocate like that but it's because of the swelling of the mucosae, it has nothing to do with setting muscles in a cramp.

 

A pretty good match only there is a delay on which it starts to work, so there needs to be added accelerator of reaction for it to work really fast. And we know Joffrey's death is reference to Eustace choking at the feast and with his death civil war ended and some speculate he was poisoned. 

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

Then you're missing an important part of his characterisation. LF is the one who set the conflict between the Starks and Lannisters in motion, by pinning Jon Arryn's murder on Cersei, and kept fuelling it until full escalation and Ned's death - in other words, he brought about tragedy and loss to the woman who was supposedly the love of his life , and he brought down the house that "stole" her from him. That suggests an immense grudge on his part - if he wanted just chaos, why specifically the Starks who are so far off? Why not kick the anthill just between the Lannisters and Baratheons, and add the Tyrells, who had the eyes on Robert's crown back then?

LF could have need killed by Jamie but her saves him by bringing the city watch. He could easily leave need there to die of his wounds. His offer to Ned about taking regency was honest because he could easily control Ned and the Seven Kingdoms. He just takes Cersei's side when he hears Ned is planning on bringing Stannis who would definitely remove LF. Same he gets the deal with Tyrells so KL is saved from Stannis and to get Harrenhall and we know he really wants Harrenhall. If he wants a conflict between Baratheon's and Lannisters he just makes sure Robert knows about the incest and all the 8 kingdoms (counting Crownlands and Riverlands as a kingdom) go against Lannisters (Lannisters have no alliances apart from Baratheons and some smaller houses). He has benefit from making deal between Lannisters and Tyrells and he does later on starts to make them fight each other (over Sansa, Kettlebacks sabotage Cersei ...).

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

No. If you go by what the text says, it's an analysis. If you go by what the text says and try to decipher a past/ future course based on it, it's a theory. If an analysis or a theory needs to rely on something that is never stated in the books and cannot even be inferred from other situations in the books, it's fanfiction. You can call it by any other word if you'd prefer, but it changes nothing about its zero support in the text in any possible way.

Stating that a person who has no qualms manipulating people to his/her benefit automatically has no qualms about poisoning people and automatically possesses a stash of poisons to carry with him/her wherever she goes, is fanfiction.

Besides: we know that the hairnet did indeed contain the poison, from the GoHH's visions - a maid with purple serpents in her hair. We also know that LF volunteered to be the one to broker the marriage with the Tyrells, and that he used this opportunity to spread rumours in Highgarden about Joffrey. No, LF had no motive to kill Joffrey, but he made sure that the Tyrells had one, and Sansa receives the hairnet as soon as the marriage between Joff and Marge is officially proclaimed (and she's not married to Tyrion yet).

No. Basic logic and knowledge of human characteristics apply as well. And we know someone smart as Olenna would not agree to this dangerous plot, which can fail really hard or she is exposed by LF who would gain another favor from Lannisters for exposing killer of their king. And no it is not fictional it is in her character to poison people she wants to remove. She doesn't have stash of posions wherever she goes and I didn't say that but if she is planning on murdering someone she would. It is like saying Melisandre has no poision since there is no textual support.

So you are claming LF decided lets go to Highgarden make a deal for Joffrey and Margaery to marry so I can have Tyrells kill Joffrey, but I will still be connected to the murder because poor Highgardedn doesn't have a single strangler in their possession. Even though I could have Joffrey killed like 20 times before.

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

That would depend on the circumstances of Joffrey's death. You can't poison a king at a family dinner, with only a dozen people present. Also, if you let the wedding ceremony take place, there is no danger of a suspicion that you didn't want it to take place (just like with the Red Wedding)

Why not at family dinner? Yes there is no suspicion that you didn't want a wedding to take place when your husband chokes to death on the wedding day sure. For red wedding they needed everyone to be there in order to kill them and needed them to be unprepared that was the point.

[Ygrain]

 

1 hour ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

 

A pretty good match only there is a delay on which it starts to work, so there needs to be added accelerator of reaction for it to work really fast. 

You really ought to

1) stop taking youtube as a valid source of anything:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strychnine_poisoning

Ten to twenty minutes after exposure, the body's muscles begin to spasm, starting with the head and neck in the form of trismus and risus sardonicus. The spasms then spread to every muscle in the body, with nearly continuous convulsions, and get worse at the slightest stimulus. The convulsions progress, increasing in intensity and frequency until the backbone arches continually. Convulsions lead to lactic acidosis, hyperthermia and rhabdomyolysis. These are followed by postictaldepression. Death comes from asphyxiation caused by paralysis of the neural pathways that control breathing, or by exhaustion from the convulsions. The subject usually dies within 2–3 hours after exposure.

(trismus: reduced opening of the jaws (limited jaw range of motion)

 risus sardonicus: a highly characteristic, abnormal, sustained spasm of the facial muscles that appears to produce grinning)

- In other words: no, the strangler poisoning is NOT like strychnine poisoning, because strychnine poisoning does NOT kill the victim by constricting throat muscles.

PS: the lady is talking bullshit. Poisoning someone with a bitter substance is definitely not done by adding sugar into the poison but the other way round, not to mention that the amount of sugar in a seed-sized crystal would be totally insufficient to mask anything.

2) stop attempting to shoehorn everything ASOIAF into RL examples. While the stangler may have been inspired by strychnine, it is not the same

 

 

1 hour ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

LF could have need killed by Jamie but her saves him by bringing the city watch. He could easily leave need there to die of his wounds. His offer to Ned about taking regency was honest because he could easily control Ned and the Seven Kingdoms. He just takes Cersei's side when he hears Ned is planning on bringing Stannis who would definitely remove LF. Same he gets the deal with Tyrells so KL is saved from Stannis and to get Harrenhall and we know he really wants Harrenhall. If he wants a conflict between Baratheon's and Lannisters he just makes sure Robert knows about the incest and all the 8 kingdoms (counting Crownlands and Riverlands as a kingdom) go against Lannisters (Lannisters have no alliances apart from Baratheons and some smaller houses). He has benefit from making deal between Lannisters and Tyrells and he does later on starts to make them fight each other (over Sansa, Kettlebacks sabotage Cersei ...).

Has it ever occured to you that the timing of LF's reveal of Barra's child, so that Ned had to postpone leaving KL, was very convenient? Or that, should Ned survive, his failure to bring Goldcloaks would be rather suspicious? Or that he might have volunteered to deal with the Tyrells for multiple reasons, not just one? 

You haven't heard about the possibility that Joff's unexpected decision to have Ned beheaded might have been prompted by certain whispering, either?

http://www.westeros.org/citadel/ssm/entry/2997

[Did Littlefinger influence Joffrey to try and kill Bran?]

Well, Littlefinger did have a certain hidden influence over Joff... but he was not at Winterfell, and that needs to be remembered.

We see this influence manifest in persuading Joffrey to use the jousting dwarves at his wedding, but this is hardly the sole use of such an influence, so it begs asking what else LF might have whispered into his ear.

1 hour ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

No. Basic logic and knowledge of human characteristics apply as well. And we know someone smart as Olenna would not agree to this dangerous plot, which can fail really hard or she is exposed by LF who would gain another favor from Lannisters for exposing killer of their king.

The knowledge of human character is exactly what I am arguing, plus a bit of logic/mathematics. A implies B =/= B implies A. While a poisoner is quite likely to be a schemer, a schemer doesn't automatically mean that the person is poisoner. A great deal of people lie and manipulate others, yet do we see people dropping dead around constantly? The two are not the same, and are not mutually interchangeable. In fact, not every poisoner is even a schemer.

1 hour ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

And no it is not fictional it is in her character to poison people she wants to remove. She doesn't have stash of posions wherever she goes and I didn't say that but if she is planning on murdering someone she would.

Unless you provide a quote showing Olenna interested in poisons, or related to someone's death by poisoning, or at least having a certain reputation like Oberyn, then it is purely fictional. In fact, we actually know that Olenna has no such reputation - when talking to Tyrion, Oberyn mentions that he himself might have been suspected, had Tyrion not got the blame, but he never mentions Olenna. 

 

1 hour ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

It is like saying Melisandre has no poision since there is no textual support.

Oh? She who is said to carry various alchymistic stuff around and been exposed to poisons? I'd hardly call that no textual support. If you claimed that Melisandre poisoned someone, I'd think you might have a point.

 

1 hour ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

So you are claming LF decided lets go to Highgarden make a deal for Joffrey and Margaery to marry so I can have Tyrells kill Joffrey, but I will still be connected to the murder because poor Highgardedn doesn't have a single strangler in their possession. Even though I could have Joffrey killed like 20 times before.

One of LF's many lessons to Sansa: always keep your hands clean. Why would he bother killing Joffrey when he can make other people do it for him while thinking that they are doing it for their own purposes?

1 hour ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

Why not at family dinner? Yes there is no suspicion that you didn't want a wedding to take place when your husband chokes to death on the wedding day sure.

Not just the wedding day, but after the ceremony when the marriage was already sealed.

Plus, read the description of the feast when Jaime investigates: people standing up, moving from place to place, watching the pie and the doves, and also pretty much relaxed and drunk... much better circumstances for slipping poison into something than when you're dining with your future in-laws. 

1 hour ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

For red wedding they needed everyone to be there in order to kill them and needed them to be unprepared that was the point.

And how did they get all the people there? By convincing them the wedding was the real deal, after which they dropped their guard. It was a done deal, Lord Walder seemingly accepted the apology and compensation.

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

And once again, if he had set up any of that, he could have picked up Sansa much sooner.

Essentially, you've contorted all these unseen events to explain how Littlefinger could know something he from the text has no way of knowing, all to set up a twist that doesn't serve the characters or themes and which undermines both of the aforesaid.

No, as I've explained in the past, he could not pick up Sansa until he was sure the coast was clear. That's why he waits until dawn when he can be absolutely certain that there are no warships prowling the bay looking for him.

Essentially, you are clinging to the notion that LF has no way of knowing anything, and risking his own life in the process, by ignoring the fact that boats can and do move over water with great ease, all to preserve a theory that Martin would deliberately, or accidentally, introduce an entire string of circumstances to create a red herring that virtually no one can see and that generates an extra page-and-a-half of completely superfluous text in a novel that is already 300+ pages over-long.

[Colonel Green]

32 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

No, as I've explained in the past, he could not pick up Sansa until he was sure the coast was clear. That's why he waits until dawn when he can be absolutely certain that there are no warships prowling the bay looking for him.

Essentially, you are clinging to the notion that LF has no way of knowing anything, and risking his own life in the process, by ignoring the fact that boats can and do move over water with great ease, all to preserve a theory that Martin would deliberately, or accidentally, introduce an entire string of circumstances to create a red herring that virtually no one can see and that generates an extra page-and-a-half of completely superfluous text in a novel that is already 300+ pages over-long.

Visibility in the dark of night is virtually nil, particularly in the fog that we're told exists.  No reason at all not to pick her up immediately.

It's not a red herring.  It's entirely fan-conjured.

[John Suburbs]

8 hours ago, Ygrain said:

What tradition are you talking about here? That ladies drink first, before the king? No such tradition is ever mentioned. Ever. It's just a fabrication of yours, just as Olenna hovering behind Tyrion's shoulder or a special table for serving individual portions. Zero support.

Honoring and protecting women is a basic tenet of chivalry -- although it was equal parts subjugation and control. And as I said, regardless of who drinks first, the idea that Lady O could create some sort of distraction for the entire time it takes for your theoretical strangler to work is nonsensical -- talk about a sure-fire way to draw attention to yourself.

The text is perfectly clear: the pies are served seconds after the cutting. They are right there, out of sight, right where Lady O is last seen.

8 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Besides, it's not like Joffrey only drinks when toasted to.

Joffrey has never been known to be a heavy drinker. Not one.

8 hours ago, Ygrain said:

If you actually bothered to read the interview, or at least the quotes, you would notice that the both the book and show audience is presented with the same dilemma: the justification of murdering a 13-year-old kid. Meaning, the element of Joff's intentional murder is the same in both media. 

I have read the interview. All the questions were about what just took place on the show and Martin says he introduced the poison earlier in the book, just like virtually everything in the show was introduced in the book. Yes, both the book and the show had elements of the morality of murdering a 13yo boy, but it is still murder whether you end up killing your intended target or not. To say that this proves intent in the book is your imagination at work.

To take one word off the top of Martin's head during a live interview and say this trumps all of the the clear and compelling evidence in the actual text that rules out the wine is just silly.

8 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Can you show me a real-world poison that works by making the muscles in the throat constrict, please? A strong allergic reaction can make people suffocate like that but it's because of the swelling of the mucosae, it has nothing to do with setting muscles in a cramp.

 

There are all sorts of real-world substances that cause human organs to constrict. A prime example is nicotine, which causes both the blood vessels and the bronchial tubes to close up, which is why smoking is so bad for your heart and blood pressure. If you were to concentrate it and drink it, it very well could have the same effect on the throat.

8 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Then you're missing an important part of his characterisation. LF is the one who set the conflict between the Starks and Lannisters in motion, by pinning Jon Arryn's murder on Cersei, and kept fuelling it until full escalation and Ned's death - in other words, he brought about tragedy and loss to the woman who was supposedly the love of his life , and he brought down the house that "stole" her from him. That suggests an immense grudge on his part - if he wanted just chaos, why specifically the Starks who are so far off? Why not kick the anthill just between the Lannisters and Baratheons, and add the Tyrells, who had the eyes on Robert's crown back then?

You honestly think that LF is doing this just for kicks? I agree he has a massive ego, but @Tygett Greenshield is 100% correct in saying that all of his actions are a means to an end, his accumulation of power, not just to spread misery throughout the land. The only reason he involved the Starks was because King Robert wanted to make Ned his hand. If not for that, sure, he would have stirred up trouble between any of the major houses, which would have been supremely easy if Jaime was made hand instead.

 

[John Suburbs]

12 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

Visibility in the dark of night is virtually nil, particularly in the fog that we're told exists.  No reason at all not to pick her up immediately.

It's not a red herring.  It's entirely fan-conjured.

You're still not getting it. It's not that he is afraid of picking her up, it's that once he has her he is at the mercy of whatever royal ship decides to stop and board him if the plan and his role in it has been uncovered. By waiting until dawn, he can be absolutely certain that he is in the clear.

[Colonel Green]

30 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

You're still not getting it. It's not that he is afraid of picking her up, it's that once he has her he is at the mercy of whatever royal ship decides to stop and board him if the plan and his role in it has been uncovered. By waiting until dawn, he can be absolutely certain that he is in the clear.

A royal ship that stopped him in the harbour would still blow his cover, as he's supposed to have left a long time ago, and that would immediately raise huge suspicions.

[John Suburbs]

30 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

A royal ship that stopped him in the harbour would still blow his cover, as he's supposed to have left a long time ago, and that would immediately raise huge suspicions.

Only if the captain of that ship knew Littlefinger on sight, or that LF could not easily disguise himself as a simple trader or one of the oarsmen. This ought to be the biggest clue that your theory is wrong: you need LF to be exceedingly smart and strategic in order to pull off the assassination, but then afterward he has to be an utter dolt.

[Tygett Lannister]

7 hours ago, Ygrain said:

One of LF's many lessons to Sansa: always keep your hands clean. Why would he bother killing Joffrey when he can make other people do it for him while thinking that they are doing it for their own purposes?

How are his hands clean? Olenna, Dontos (killed), Sansa (with him), Kettlebacks know he helped in murdering Joffrey. So that leaves Kettlebacks and Olenna to betray him. He trusts Kettlebacks and he would use them in solo plan or someone like them, trustworthy servant of his. He is much safer if Olenna is not invovled, much more cleaner. What makes you think Olenna would not betray LF if she got caught? For LF it is much more cleaner to have a Kettleback or some other servant poison Joffrey. Someone he can trust much better than an experienced schemer like Olenna or drunkard Dontos.

You are claiming Olenna and LF created plan for entire plot back in Highgarden, yet you claim she would not bother to just acquire strangler in Highgarden where it is her safezone and much further away than LF's ship is. She is planning the murder second she hears rumors about Joffrey being a monster and LF's hint that Margaery can marry Tommen. At that moment she can say: "Enough said good sir Littlefinger." Acquires strangler goes to Kingslanding, poison's Joffrey in the wedding. Or you think she will say: "Yeah you provide poison I really can't get it here and someone could discover strangler in my possession and they would just know I was going to poison my grandson-in-law on the wedding day, because other uses make much less sense. And if I get caught on the wedding it would mean a lot to me if I got caught with your poison not mine, I think if it is yours they will spare me. Also imagen if the strangler in Sansa's hairnet wouldn't get out and I wouldn't nervously keep stroking her hairnet or if it fell out just before the wedding, that would be a funny story to tell to my grandgrand children. Or imagen Dontos would sell the hairnet for a cup of wine and bought cheap one and give it to Sansa. Or that Sansa would not put the hairnet on the wedding day. Of fun times my friend, I trust everything will happen just as you instructed and I can't do anything if the plan fails, Margaery will enjoy sadistic kinky sex with Joffrey."

That is the first thing and the second is LF has great motives to kill Tyrion and choking on a pie would not be suspicious for someone who has reputation of drinking and eating a lot.

Thirdly Cressen's reaction and Joffrey's are to different to be the same poison. 

Cressen: After drinking wine he drops the cup and Mel says: "He does have the power here my lord" "And fire cleanses." Than he tries to reply but he can't so it took him max 5 seconds for him to not be able to talk (probably sooner since he dropped the cup).

While Joffrey: Joff yanked it and rank long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple down his chin. "My Lord." "we should return to our places Lord Buckler wants to toast us." (Margaery) This took same time as Melisandre speaks like 3-5 seconds. "My uncle hasn't eaten his pigeon pie" takes Tyrion's pie into his mouth while and at the same time says: "It's ill luck not to eat the pie." That takes another 3-5 seconds I imagen it takes him like 2 more seconds to say: "See it's good." And than he coughs for the first time and grabs for some more pie. And than tries to talk more but keeps coughing. And like 5 seconds after saying "See, it is good." He can't speak like Cressen couldn't. Cressen doesn't tries to talk for some time so he doesn't have the initial coughs like Joffrey, while Joffrey is trying to talk and eat at the same time.

It would take 2-3 times longer for Joffrey to have reaction to strangler opposed to Cressen. But strangler is so strong it has immediate effect on any person, it is way over lethal doze so it doesn't really matters if the Mountain eats it or dying Hoster Tully, both would have immediate reaction.

[Tygett Lannister]

8 hours ago, Ygrain said:

And how did they get all the people there? By convincing them the wedding was the real deal, after which they dropped their guard. It was a done deal, Lord Walder seemingly accepted the apology and compensation.

Yeah this makes so much sense only that everyone was in Kingslanding a lot sooner than wedding took place. Walder could also kill them sooner at some dinner they would share if they were sitting there for months. Also Olenna needs to kill one person, Walder many.

8 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Has it ever occured to you that the timing of LF's reveal of Barra's child, so that Ned had to postpone leaving KL, was very convenient? Or that, should Ned survive, his failure to bring Goldcloaks would be rather suspicious? Or that he might have volunteered to deal with the Tyrells for multiple reasons, not just one? 

Yes LF needs for Ned to stay in Kingslanding, you think he just knew Jamie would go there and attack Ned? LF can say he was stopped by Lannister men when trying to do so. He volunteers to deal with Tyrells to get Harrenhall. Planning murder of someone you have no motive to kill so much in the future, please. He could also get the rumors to Olenna and talk with her in Kingslanding. It wouldn't be suspicious, Master of Coin and grandmother of future Queen to talk.

[Ygrain]

40 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

How are his hands clean? Olenna, Dontos (killed), Sansa (with him), Kettlebacks know he helped in murdering Joffrey. So that leaves Kettlebacks and Olenna to betray him. He trusts Kettlebacks and he would use them in solo plan or someone like them, trustworthy servant of his. He is much safer if Olenna is not invovled, much more cleaner. What makes you think Olenna would not betray LF if she got caught? For LF it is much more cleaner to have a Kettleback or some other servant poison Joffrey. Someone he can trust much better than an experienced schemer like Olenna or drunkard Dontos.

You think LF would use the Kettleblacks for the poisoning?

And you're still confusing the persons' motivations. LF doesn't have one, except creating chaos. He doesn't need, or want, Joffrey dead, he's merely shaking the chessboard. And he does so by leading Olenna's hand from behind the scenes, just like he did with Mace wanting Loras in the KG.

40 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

You are claiming Olenna and LF created plan for entire plot back in Highgarden,

I'm not. I'm claiming that in Highgarden, LF used his agents to plant the rumours.

40 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

yet you claim she would not bother to just acquire strangler in Highgarden where it is her safezone and much further away than LF's ship is.

I claim that there is no textual support for Olenna being knowledgeable about poisons or having means to acquire one.

40 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

She is planning the murder second she hears rumors about Joffrey being a monster and LF's hint that Margaery can marry Tommen. At that moment she can say: "Enough said good sir Littlefinger." Acquires strangler goes to Kingslanding, poison's Joffrey in the wedding.

Except that I never claimed they necessarily planned the whole thing together, and you are also forgetting that little scene with Sansa who is needed to confirm all those terrible rumours.

40 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

Or you think she will say: "Yeah you provide poison I really can't get it here and someone could discover strangler in my possession and they would just know I was going to poison my grandson-in-law on the wedding day, because other uses make much less sense. And if I get caught on the wedding it would mean a lot to me if I got caught with your poison not mine, I think if it is yours they will spare me. Also imagen if the strangler in Sansa's hairnet wouldn't get out and I wouldn't nervously keep stroking her hairnet or if it fell out just before the wedding, that would be a funny story to tell to my grandgrand children. Or imagen Dontos would sell the hairnet for a cup of wine and bought cheap one and give it to Sansa. Or that Sansa would not put the hairnet on the wedding day. Of fun times my friend, I trust everything will happen just as you instructed and I can't do anything if the plan fails, Margaery will enjoy sadistic kinky sex with Joffrey."

For one, if you think that the strangler hairnet is convoluted, take it to GRRM, he wrote the vision of a maiden with purple serpents in her hair.

Second, I believe I have suggested somewhere above that Olenna may not have even known that LF was the one procuring the poison, just like Cersei never knew that the Kettleblacks were Tyrion's men, who in turn never knew that they were LF's. 

40 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

That is the first thing and the second is LF has great motives to kill Tyrion and choking on a pie would not be suspicious for someone who has reputation of drinking and eating a lot.

Then why is the strangler in the hairnet, for shits and giggles?

40 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

Thirdly Cressen's reaction and Joffrey's are to different to be the same poison. 

Cressen: After drinking wine he drops the cup and Mel says: "He does have the power here my lord" "And fire cleanses." Than he tries to reply but he can't so it took him max 5 seconds for him to not be able to talk (probably sooner since he dropped the cup).

While Joffrey: Joff yanked it and rank long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple down his chin. "My Lord." "we should return to our places Lord Buckler wants to toast us." (Margaery) This took same time as Melisandre speaks like 3-5 seconds. "My uncle hasn't eaten his pigeon pie" takes Tyrion's pie into his mouth while and at the same time says: "It's ill luck not to eat the pie." That takes another 3-5 seconds I imagen it takes him like 2 more seconds to say: "See it's good." And than he coughs for the first time and grabs for some more pie. And than tries to talk more but keeps coughing. And like 5 seconds after saying "See, it is good." He can't speak like Cressen couldn't. Cressen doesn't tries to talk for some time so he doesn't have the initial coughs like Joffrey, while Joffrey is trying to talk and eat at the same time.

It would take 2-3 times longer for Joffrey to have reaction to strangler opposed to Cressen. But strangler is so strong it has immediate effect on any person, it is way over lethal doze so it doesn't really matters if the Mountain eats it or dying Hoster Tully, both would have immediate reaction.

You must be kidding me. 5 seconds and 15 seconds, for persons of totally different age, health, constitution (and poison dillution) - that's both fucking fast. You, who are so much into real world parallels, should be the first to acknowledge that the onset of symptoms is variable

32 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

Yes LF needs for Ned to stay in Kingslanding, you think he just knew Jamie would go there and attack Ned?

In fact, I think LF made sure Jaime learned where Ned had gone. Tyrion abducted + Jaime hothead + meeting Ned = problem.

32 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

LF can say he was stopped by Lannister men when trying to do so.

Because no-one in the streets could testify to the contrary, right?

32 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

He volunteers to deal with Tyrells to get Harrenhall.

And to plant the rumours.

32 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

Planning murder of someone you have no motive to kill so much in the future, please.

Because he knows that other people will have that motive once he prompts them in the right direction, and he will have a leverage against them. Knowledge is power, right?

32 minutes ago, Tygett Greenshield said:

He could also get the rumors to Olenna and talk with her in Kingslanding. It wouldn't be suspicious, Master of Coin and grandmother of future Queen to talk.

Oh? And where would they talk without the risk of the little birds overhearing them, in the godswood? Or they will meet somewhere outside the castle? Wow, that would be totally unsuspicious.

[Ygrain]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Honoring and protecting women is a basic tenet of chivalry -- although it was equal parts subjugation and control.

That doesn't automatically equal to letting a lady drink first, especially if you are a king (and with exceptionally bad manners on top of that)

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

And as I said, regardless of who drinks first, the idea that Lady O could create some sort of distraction for the entire time it takes for your theoretical strangler to work is nonsensical -- talk about a sure-fire way to draw attention to yourself.

Old lady gets up to get better view of her graddaughter, and she falls down. The granddaughter rushes to check if she's alright. Kof, kof.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The text is perfectly clear: the pies are served seconds after the cutting. They are right there, out of sight, right where Lady O is last seen.

Except that Lady O is last seen as the pie with doves is being wheeled down the hall, and that's not seconds.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Joffrey has never been known to be a heavy drinker. Not one.

I don't have the time to search the text but he is pretty much in his wineskin when he encounters Arya and Mycah, and during the wedding feast, he's not exactly sober, either.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I have read the interview. All the questions were about what just took place on the show and Martin says he introduced the poison earlier in the book, just like virtually everything in the show was introduced in the book. Yes, both the book and the show had elements of the morality of murdering a 13yo boy, but it is still murder whether you end up killing your intended target or not. To say that this proves intent in the book is your imagination at work.

Now that's bullshit. Poisoning a terrible person only accidentally doesn't poise any moral dilemma concerning redemption, the-e-nd-justifies-the-means, none of the kind. Those are reserved for intentional killing. 

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

To take one word off the top of Martin's head during a live interview and say this trumps all of the the clear and compelling evidence in the actual text that rules out the wine is just silly.

Ah. So the author who had been planning something for years doesn't know what he is saying. Great.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

There are all sorts of real-world substances that cause human organs to constrict. A prime example is nicotine, which causes both the blood vessels and the bronchial tubes to close up, which is why smoking is so bad for your heart and blood pressure. If you were to concentrate it and drink it, it very well could have the same effect on the throat.

Sigh. "Could" ain't good enough. The problem with RL substances causing constriction is that they do not work selectively, and if something will constrict the throat muscles to the point of asphyxation, other muscles will be cramping, as well. Yet, this is not the case with the strangler, it affects only and solely the throat. It is a fantasy poison.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

You honestly think that LF is doing this just for kicks? I agree he has a massive ego, but @Tygett Greenshield is 100% correct in saying that all of his actions are a means to an end, his accumulation of power, not just to spread misery throughout the land. The only reason he involved the Starks was because King Robert wanted to make Ned his hand. If not for that, sure, he would have stirred up trouble between any of the major houses, which would have been supremely easy if Jaime was made hand instead.

You guys are really funny. Of course LF wants power; does it somehow exclude an ability to hold a grudge and to exact revenge on those entitled nobles who "stole" what was his? 

BTW, why did Ned become Hand? Because Jon Arryn died. And who killed Jon Arryn, and at whose behest? 

So, let's recapitulate:

- LF has Lysa murder Jon Arryn and frame the Lannisters for that

- LF frames Tyrion for the attempt on Bran

- LF insinuates that Robert knew about the attempt on Bran

- LF delays Ned's departure from KL, which results in the fatal encounter with Jaime (which I suspect LF orchestrated, as well, but have no proof for that)

- LF betrays Ned (and quite possibly whisper in Joff's ear which results in Ned's execution)

Now, how do such actions correspond to his claim that Catelyn  was the only woman he ever loved, when everything he did brought pain and destruction to her family? Those are not actions of a man in love, that's something very, very ugly on the inside.

[Colonel Green]

7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Only if the captain of that ship knew Littlefinger on sight, or that LF could not easily disguise himself as a simple trader or one of the oarsmen. This ought to be the biggest clue that your theory is wrong: you need LF to be exceedingly smart and strategic in order to pull off the assassination, but then afterward he has to be an utter dolt.

So why couldn't he make arrangements to cleverly hide Sansa onboard, if it came to that?

The biggest clue that your theory is wrong is that it requires insane convolutions to explain away all the totally unforced indicators that Littlefinger couldn't have known that Joffrey was dead if it wasn't his plan, and that you go to all this trouble for an alternative version of events that isn't an interesting or character-building twist and which undermines the themes GRRM claims to be exploring and the subtle ways he seeds the Tyrell plot and uses it to build up Sansa's perceptiveness.

[Clegane'sPup]

Trivia to add to the discussion.

LF was in charge of customs in the port Gulltown before he went to KL. I would think that he knows how to move merchandise. He would also know ship captains and ship schedules and perhaps kept up those contacts while he lived in KL. I have to wonder if the Merling King was the ship that transported the jousting dwarfs.

When LF leaves KL to go off to woo Lysa it is written:

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion III      How soon might you leave?"    "On the morrow, if the winds permit. There's a Braavosi galley standing out past the chain, taking on cargo by boat. The Merling King. I'll see her captain about a berth." "You will miss the king's wedding," said Mace Tyrell.

What ship is waiting for Dontos and Sansa after Joffrey’s death? Yep, the Merling King and old Oswell is aboard. This ship also turns up again later in an Alyane chapter in FfC.

A Storm of Swords - Sansa VI    Off the bow of the Merling King stretched a bare and stony strand, windswept, treeless, and uninviting. Even so, it made a welcome sight. They had been a long while clawing their way back on course. The last storm had swept them out of sight of land, and sent such waves crashing over the sides of the galley that Sansa had been certain they were all going to drown. Two men had been swept overboard, she had heard old Oswell saying, and another had fallen from the mast and broken his neck.

A Feast for Crows - Alayne II       The times grow ever more interesting, my sweet, and when the times are interesting you can never have too many swords. The Merling King's returned to Gulltown, and old Oswell had some tales to tell."

While LF is an opportunist, it also seems that he has a, I dunna know, network.