Heresy 203 and growing suspicions anent the Starks

[Brad Stark]

23 minutes ago, JNR said:

He said countless times he would finish the series.  He also said he wasn't a liar.  Those are both objective facts.

No, he has flatly denied this.  His position is that if he doesn't finish it, no one will.

So.  We shall see.

Valar Morghulis - All men must die.  GRRM may have said he will finish the book and no one else will, but he has little control of when he dies or what happens to his work after.

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, JNR said:

Every time GRRM does an interview and says in fifty years nobody will care how long each book took, I wonder if he realizes that (unless something changes) nobody will care about the last book at all... because it will never have been written.   And if it's never written, odds are not good anybody is going to be reading the series.

I used to believe (and still believe, I suppose) that he will eventually publish both a sixth and seventh book--where my confidence has absolutely plummeted is in his ability to finish within those seven books. Most of the fandom was ahead of me on that bit of pessimism, but I used to believe that things would speed up (both in-world and for GRRM himself) as the story approached the climax...now I wonder whether GRRM can even reign himself in enough to be within shooting distance of the climax.

If you will forgive a bit of rambling, I can recall being a wide-eyed teenage reader, having recently finished ASOS and eagerly awaiting the next volume (which was to be ADWD, at that time), following GRRM's internet presence, such as it was, and being hyped by even the most minor nuggets of information--such AS GRRM promising that the next volume was to feature a guy styling himself the King of the Mummers. "Holy shit, King of the Mummers! ADWD is gonna be great!"

That was 16 years and ~2000 pages ago, and the king of the mummers exists only in a sample chapter for a book that might not even be published in 2018, much less 2017.

[Black Crow]

19 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

These are stories of the Children of the Forest, who are the protagonists.  The evil giants in Castles are the First Men.

All things are possible and we can't rule out that lot in Lorath, but on balance I think that they are probably intended as a warning not to take Old Nan's stories too seriously, ie; just as Jon finds that giants don't live in castles or wear seven-league boots, so we'll find other things don't match up to expectations either, prophecies especially

[JNR]

6 hours ago, Matthew. said:

where my confidence has absolutely plummeted is in his ability to finish within those seven books

Ditto.

I have read all the sample content from TWOW, which amounts to about 1/7th of the book, assuming it's about as long as ADWD or ASOS (and it can't be longer).

That also means, since there are two books left in theory, that the TWOW sample chapters comprise about 1/14th of rest of the entire series.  

Do those chapters tell the story of 1/14th of the rest of the series?  Not even close.  Instead, GRRM spends far too much time on the Battle of Meereen... which relative to the series, simply can't be a very big deal.

Since the books can't get bigger, that also means he won't finish in two more books, and unless he becomes a dramatically faster or more disciplined writer, the odds he will ever finish have plummeted.  

7 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

GRRM may have said he will finish the book and no one else will, but he has little control of when he dies or what happens to his work after.

And he may possibly live to be a hundred, and finish.  But I think the time has long since come for him to admit he needs a more disciplined approach, and to create and execute a strategy on that basis.  

Merely saying that he can't possibly (for instance) write five hundreds words a day because "things come up," and simultaneously turn out Fire and Blood Vol. 1 -- that is, hundreds of thousands of words about obscure Targaryens of interest to perhaps two percent of the fandom -- will never earn him the Best Book Hugo he craves.  And the odds of ASOIAF ever being finished will continue to fall by the day.

[SirArthur]

1 hour ago, JNR said:

Since the books can't get bigger, that also means he won't finish in two more books, and unless he becomes a dramatically faster or more disciplined writer, the odds he will ever finish have plummeted.  

Given the way (and time) the books have been written so far and the missing content to even introduce all factions in an understandable way, the suggestion can only be that the series will have at least 8 books and will at least take 12 more years.

[Brad Stark]

2 hours ago, JNR said:

Ditto.

I have read all the sample content from TWOW, which amounts to about 1/7th of the book, assuming it's about as long as ADWD or ASOS (and it can't be longer).

That also means, since there are two books left in theory, that the TWOW sample chapters comprise about 1/14th of rest of the entire series.  

Do those chapters tell the story of 1/14th of the rest of the series?  Not even close.  Instead, GRRM spends far too much time on the Battle of Meereen... which relative to the series, simply can't be a very big deal.

Since the books can't get bigger, that also means he won't finish in two more books, and unless he becomes a dramatically faster or more disciplined writer, the odds he will ever finish have plummeted.  

And he may possibly live to be a hundred, and finish.  But I think the time has long since come for him to admit he needs a more disciplined approach, and to create and execute a strategy on that basis.  

Merely saying that he can't possibly (for instance) write five hundreds words a day because "things come up," and simultaneously turn out Fire and Blood Vol. 1 -- that is, hundreds of thousands of words about obscure Targaryens of interest to perhaps two percent of the fandom -- will never earn him the Best Book Hugo he craves.  And the odds of ASOIAF ever being finished will continue to fall by the day.

GRRM is selectively releasing parts of the book that don't advance the story.  They are probably 1/7th of Winds by length even if they aren't by plot.

GRRM's life is his own.  If he chooses to spend most of his time watching and analyzing the NY Jets, I would be sad, but I wouldn't reasonably be able to say he is wrong.

[JNR]

15 hours ago, SirArthur said:

the suggestion can only be that the series will have at least 8 books and will at least take 12 more years.

I would consider that a very optimistic projection, too. 

In AGOT, ACOK, ASOS, AFFC, and ADWD, he wrote about a third of his original story, as described in his 1993 summary letter.

So when I ask myself what he is likely to do, in writing the remaining two-thirds of ASOIAF, I find myself thinking: "More of the same."  And that does not bode well.

14 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

GRRM is selectively releasing parts of the book that don't advance the story.

I would rephrase this as: "If any of the sample chapters of TWOW don't advance the story, then something is deeply wrong.  He has only 150 chapters left to finish the series if he's going to finish in two books."

14 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

If he chooses to spend most of his time watching and analyzing the NY Jets, I would be sad, but I wouldn't reasonably be able to say he is wrong.

I'm not sure if you mean "wrong" in a moral or a factual sense.

However, if he chooses to spend most of his time in this manner, fan interest in his work -- the existence of which beyond the sample chapters can't even be proven -- will unquestionably decline.    

So will his odds of ever winning the book Hugo he so obviously craves.  So will the odds of his finishing the series.

[Black Crow]

Such is life, but all we can do here is discuss the text and the clues which he has given us thus far.

[Tucu]

I don't see much of a problem finishing the story in two more books. In The Winds of Winter the Ice and the Fire factions will likely consolidate. Then in A Dream of Spring we will see a confrontation between these factions ending with Arya enforcing valar morghulis on the magical leaders :-)

[Matthew.]

21 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

GRRM's life is his own.  If he chooses to spend most of his time watching and analyzing the NY Jets, I would be sad, but I wouldn't reasonably be able to say he is wrong.

I do not begrudge GRRM his leisure activities, nor his non-ASOIAF projects; indeed, I think the fandom citing such things as a cause of GRRM's pace is a vast overstatement.

Reasonably, GRRM could maintain all his present hobbies, interests, and convention appearances and be a productive writer--in fact, he is doing exactly that, as he appears to be maintaining all his usual hobbies, while also working on several TV projects and writing hundreds of thousands of words of fake history.

This isn't, strictly speaking, a matter of available time, or that these things are done at the expense of ASOIAF. As JNR said above, it's about discipline. It's easy for GRRM to be prolific when he's having fun--what his intermittent comments about working on TWOW (as well as some broader comments about deadlines, and losing motivation when his profession becomes a 'job' rather than a passion) reveal is that writing TWOW is no longer fun...it's a job. 

IMO, there's four major problems:
1. GRRM appears to be one of those writers who attempts to solve a writing problem by...not writing. Instead, he waits until he has "found his muse again," or whatever. I could be wrong about this, of course, but it's the impression I get.
2. He only writes at home, and only on some ancient desktop. Maybe that was fine in the 1990s and 2000s, but for as big as GRRM's profile is these days, it'd ludicrous that he isn't writing on a laptop while he's away from home.
3. According to his old assistant, Ty, even when GRRM does write, he endlessly, obsessively rewrites--hundreds of pages, thousands of pages.
4. The POV structure is a narrative straitjacket, and it severely limits his ability to convey important details in a concise manner, as illustrated by the Meereenese knot.

[Brad Stark]

Back to the Starks.   Do we think the original Starks were important?  Or maybe the Stark children are important because of nonStarks they descended from.  We have Bael the Bard, The Warg King, The Marsh King and possibly other important bloodlines the Starks married after conquering.  As far as I can tell, all of these happened after the Long Night, so if there is a Stark/Other connection or a Stark/Long Night connection, it was before.

[JNR]

17 hours ago, Matthew. said:

writing TWOW is no longer fun...it's a job

Seems beyond doubt it's been that way with ASOIAF for this whole millennium.

Quote

The last one was a bitch.  This one was three bitches and a bastard.

-- GRRM's afterword for ADWD, discussing both it and AFFC

And TWOW is, of course, routinely described in his LJ as "son of Kong" -- the ultimate monkey on his back.  

So yes, this is about personal discipline needed to do the job for which he's been extremely well paid in advance (literally: that's what a book advance is).  He is contractually obligated to do his job.  If he doesn't do his job, it is wrong in at least that sense.

17 hours ago, Matthew. said:

The POV structure is a narrative straitjacket, and it severely limits his ability to convey important details in a concise manner, as illustrated by the Meereenese knot.

I actually think his issue there is far too many POVs.  If he could confine himself to fewer, he would have that much less story to tell, he could slice away a lot of narrative irrelevance, it would be clearer to him what his options are, and the books would be written, and would read, much faster.  

The first two books were written in this manner, and they are generally not seen as worse than the most recent two -- quite the opposite.  POV disasters like Brienne in AFFC are just not allowed to occur.

23 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Such is life, but all we can do here is discuss the text and the clues which he has given us thus far.

Each such post is an investment of time and energy.  If we continue to invest in a series that will never be finished, when will we see a return on our investment? 

[Voice]

Nice to see some sober discussion on this topic.

GRRM wants the books to be finished, and is ever ready to soak in the adoration that comes/will come from them.

But, he clearly has no interest in writing them and has realized he will be adored by show fans regardless.

And, their forces far exceed our dwindling host.

[SirArthur]

3 hours ago, JNR said:

I actually think his issue there is far too many POVs.  If he could confine himself to fewer, he would have that much less story to tell, he could slice away a lot of narrative irrelevance, it would be clearer to him what his options are, and the books would be written, and would read, much faster.  

I'm not sure if you mean too many POV characters or too many irrelevant POV chapters. In the later case I tend to agree. I even think we have reached a point where Arya can stop being a POV and simply do her thing in the background. The only argument against it is the overall story premise; that it is about the children of Winterfell. But Arya as a POV is irrelevant at this point because she adds nothing to the story. She is just a sightseeing tourist and not a "player" (in lack of a better word). 

The same goes for Quentyn, Arianne, Hotha, Aeron. Sansa stops being interesting as a POV once Littlefinger meets his giantkiller. 

Bran is the same tourist as Arya and in the role as an ancient and mysterious story explorer he shares a role with Sam and to an extend Arya. 

[Tucu]

9 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

I'm not sure if you mean too many POV characters or too many irrelevant POV chapters. In the later case I tend to agree. I even think we have reached a point where Arya can stop being a POV and simply do her thing in the background. The only argument against it is the overall story premise; that it is about the children of Winterfell. But Arya as a POV is irrelevant at this point because she adds nothing to the story. She is just a sightseeing tourist and not a "player" (in lack of a better word). 

The same goes for Quentyn, Arianne, Hotha, Aeron. Sansa stops being interesting as a POV once Littlefinger meets his giantkiller. 

Bran is the same tourist as Arya and in the role as an ancient and mysterious story explorer he shares a role with Sam and to an extend Arya. 

I really enjoyed Arya's and Bran's POV in the last two books. They provide a lot of information about the shared threads between First Men/CoTF and Valyrian magic.

[SirArthur]

We enjoy them as readers because we like them. But in my opinion there is no need for both. The same goes for Sam. From a story point Bran can take over as a narrator and Sam/Arya can exist in the world as a troubled soul/Jon's buddy without a POV.

[Black Crow]

30 minutes ago, Tucu said:

I really enjoyed Arya's and Bran's POV in the last two books. They provide a lot of information about the shared threads between First Men/CoTF and Valyrian magic.

While I agree about the relevance of those POVs, I'm not sure that the Faceless Men represent Valyrian magic. The Faceless Men may represent the balance between Ice and Fire - same basic magic, same ruthlessness, but [perhaps paradoxically] the death of individuals rather than mass extinction

[Black Crow]

4 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Back to the Starks.   Do we think the original Starks were important?  Or maybe the Stark children are important because of nonStarks they descended from.  We have Bael the Bard, The Warg King, The Marsh King and possibly other important bloodlines the Starks married after conquering.  As far as I can tell, all of these happened after the Long Night, so if there is a Stark/Other connection or a Stark/Long Night connection, it was before.

I'd say that the Stark children are important because they are children of Winterfell. Its the connection of Winterfell and its guardians to Ice that is important, not those others. Bael the Bard certainly had had some input into the bloodline, but in the context the daughters of the Warg King and the Marsh King sound like Salt wives rather than Rock wives.

And then of course where does Bael come from? Whose son was he? Unless we know anything of his lineage its difficult to gauge his importance in the bloodline. 

Where he is more likely to be important in the end is in the parallel he provides for Lyanna, or rather how the Stark line continued through the bastard son of that un-named daughter; providing a precedent for Lyanna's bastard son Jon becoming Lord of Winterfell - assuming he lives.

[Tucu]

20 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

While I agree about the relevance of those POVs, I'm not sure that the Faceless Men represent Valyrian magic. The Faceless Men may represent the balance between Ice and Fire - same basic magic, same ruthlessness, but [perhaps paradoxically] the death of individuals rather than mass extinction

I link the Faceless Men with Valyrian magic as they seem to share core beliefs with the disciples of Boash that are described as a sect of Valyrian dissidents.

[Black Crow]

13 minutes ago, Tucu said:

I link the Faceless Men with Valyrian magic as they seem to share core beliefs with the disciples of Boash that are described as a sect of Valyrian dissidents.

I think that one of the over-arching themes which is emerging is that the magic is the same and centres around the migration of the soul; its just that Ice and Fire magic are using it in different ways. When I questioned describing the Faceless Men as using Valyrian magic, I was looking at the [mainstream] latter as representing Fire, I'm happy to go with disciples of Boash, but as they are dissidents they clearly stand outwith that mainstream and perhaps see themselves as a middle way between Ice and Fire.