U.S. Politics: We're Saying Merry Christmas, Again

[Shryke]

So even more details on the death of La David Johnson are beginning to emerge the picture they paint is actually seemingly like 100x worse and Trump's shitty behaviour in the aftermath is just a single little shit burger sitting on the edge of a shit buffet:

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/18/politics/us-niger-investigation-what-we-know/index.html

Basically they seem to have been sent into the situation with no air support and evac only from a contractor, then ambushed, then during the rescue they left Johnson behind and only retrieved him 48 hours later, with no indication what happened to him during that time beyond that he doesn't get an open casket. The French that were supposed to back them up also had no authorization to, like, do much of anything.

And if you are wondering why the French weren't authorized to help, it's likely because that was until recently Chad's job. But then the Trump admin threw Chad on their muslim ban list because they didn't have enough passport paper on hand at the time and so Chad told the US to piss up a rope and stopped cooperating in local anti-terrorist operations:

https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/maddow-connects-the-dots-on-how-trump-adding-chad-to-his-travel-ban-may-have-gotten-soldiers-killed-in-niger/

 

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think it will go the other way, and the universities will make him take them to court, unless there is some legal reason why it would be more strategic to go your route. Either way though I suspect the universities would win.

Well sure, that would always be the sequence of events.  You can't concurrently deny him access and sue him.

9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Also, it will be interesting if universities and states in general will change their locks and make the speaker responsible for the total cost of security for their events.

The precedent that would have to be dealt with here is Forsyth County v. Nationalist Movement (1992).

13 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And yeah, your dad made the right call on that one.

Coincidentally, he was taking my mom to the airport for a business trip.  She always knows exactly when to bail!

[Shryke]

Also a good run down of Kelly's complete shitbaggery yesterday:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/john-kelly-and-the-language-of-the-military-coup
Headline is a bit clickbaity but lots of good stuff in there:

Quote

Kelly’s last argument was his most striking. At the end of the briefing, he said that he would take questions only from those members of the press who had a personal connection to a fallen soldier, followed by those who knew a Gold Star family. Considering that, a few minutes earlier, Kelly had said most Americans didn’t even know anyone who knew anyone who belonged to the “one per cent,” he was now explicitly denying a majority of Americans—or the journalists representing them—the right to ask questions. This was a new twist on the Trump Administration’s technique of shunning and shaming unfriendly members of the news media, except this time, it was framed explicitly in terms of national loyalty. As if on cue, the first reporter allowed to speak inserted the phrase “Semper Fi”—a literal loyalty oath—into his question.

Before walking off the stage, Kelly told Americans who haven’t served in the military that he pities them. “We don’t look down upon those of you who haven’t served,” he said. “In fact, in a way we are a little bit sorry because you’ll have never have experienced the wonderful joy you get in your heart when you do the kinds of things our servicemen and women do—not for any other reason than that they love this country.”

 

We're back to the Bush era wankery where military service loyal to the current administration is used as a shield against criticism. Good old fascist military masturbation.

[Darth Richard II]

But her emails!

[TheKitttenGuard]

An article from Slate with some caution on the Niger ambush and Chad

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2017/10/do_not_try_to_turn_niger_into_trump_s_benghazi.html

Quote

First, there is simply no evidence that the withdrawal of Chadian forces from Niger had anything to do with the ambush. Examining the basic geography of the crisis makes this clear. Chad’s involvement in Niger was limited to the fight against Boko Haram, a Nigeria-based extremist movement that terrorizes civilians in northwest Nigeria, southeast Niger, southern Chad, and northern Cameroon. The Chadians were deployed to the Diffa region, where they fought effectively against Boko Haram and restored a semblance of stability to communities the extremists had terrorized. Their withdrawal has upset communities in the Diffa region, who (rightly) believe that their own government’s forces are incapable of protecting them from a renewed Boko Haram threat.

Do not agree with everything here and there maybe some hair-splitting but it gives some point for consideration.

[Ser Reptitious]

6 hours ago, Shryke said:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/john-kelly-and-the-language-of-the-military-coup
Before walking off the stage, Kelly told Americans who haven’t served in the military that he pities them. “We don’t look down upon those of you who haven’t served,” he said. “In fact, in a way we are a little bit sorry because you’ll have never have experienced the wonderful joy you get in your heart when you do the kinds of things our servicemen and women do—not for any other reason than that they love this country.”

Someone should perhpas remind him that his President is one of those people who never served in the military. Does Kelly "pity" him too?

[DMC]

6 hours ago, TheKitttenGuard said:

An article from Slate with some caution on the Niger ambush and Chad

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2017/10/do_not_try_to_turn_niger_into_trump_s_benghazi.html

Do not agree with everything here and there maybe some hair-splitting but it gives some point for consideration.

Yeah I think it's pretty damn stupid to make any definitive comments on what the hell happened.  Coupled with the tendency to pose as an expert when you really have no fucks what you're talking about.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I just realized today (again), it's not even been a year since Dubious Donnie was elected. And it's just about 9 months since he took office, and it's three more years of this shitshow. I knew it was gonna be horrific, but boy, did he exceed expectations. Is anybody else surprised by the sheer magnitude of awfulness?

[Yukle]

12 hours ago, Darth Richard II said:

But her emails!

Let's not forget Trump's crush and her husband, Ivanka and Jared, were using a private email server EARLIER THIS YEAR.

Still pissed off that's already out of the news cycle. Seriously, America, this is why we in the rest of the world are laughing at you. We know that for a majority of you it's not your fault, but seriously, your president is a clown!

[LongRider]

15 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Now universities will be legally able to deny him on grounds of student safety.

You called it.

Quote

Ohio State University has denied a request to rent space for prominent white nationalist Richard Spencer to speak on campus, citing public safety concerns in the wake of Spencer's appearance at the University of Florida earlier this week.

“The university has deemed that it is not presently able to accommodate Mr. [Cameron] Padgett’s request to rent space at the university due to substantial risk to public safety, as well as material and substantial disruption to the work and discipline of the university,” a lawyer representing Ohio State said in a letter to an attorney representing Spencer’s associates and obtained by The Guardian.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/356503-ohio-state-denies-request-to-have-richard-spencer-speak-on

[drawkcabi]

5 hours ago, Notone said:

I just realized today (again), it's not even been a year since Dubious Donnie was elected. And it's just about 9 months since he took office, and it's three more years of this shitshow. I knew it was gonna be horrific, but boy, did he exceed expectations. Is anybody else surprised by the sheer magnitude of awfulness?

Surprised? Nope.

Impressed? Kinda.

[Red Tiger]

Can we have "Red Don" as the next topic title?

Inspired by this, off course.

[Fragile Bird]

Lol, more news on the Bill O'Reilly front.

Early in the year he settled a sexual harassment claim with a Fox employee for THIRTY TWO MILLION DOLLARS!

WTF did he do to agree to such a ginormous settlement?

And the Murdoch organization knew there had been a claim of harassment, but O'Reilly told them he had settled the matter privately. He then got his contract renewed for $25 M a month later, but the company added a clause saying he could be dismissed if more sexual harassment claims were made.

I would add a link but for some reason the story won't open anymore.....

[denstorebog]

Well, this is some depressing shit. FairVote has released their latest report projecting the House election, factoring in gerrymandering. FairVote's last report apparently was quite accurate, as in:

Quote

To underscore our level of confidence, we made similar projections going into 2012, 2014 and 2016 in a total of 1,062 House races. We missed only one seat - that means our high confidence projections have an accuracy rate of more than 99.9%

This accuracy was achieved despite the fact that we made our projections in 2014 based only on the 2012 and 2014 election results in each district and the presence of an incumbent. We did not use campaign funding data or adjust based on opinion polls. The only information someone needs to predict with high accuracy the outcome of most U.S. House elections is previous presidential and U.S. House election results.

The 2018 report shows the most ossified electoral landscape yet, being the first year we have projected more than 370 seats at this degree of confidence.

Of these 374 projections, 208 races are safe for Republicans and 166 are safe for Democrats. Of the 61 seats our high-confidence model did not project, 22 would favor Republicans, 18 would favor Democrats, and another 21 are toss-up seats if voter preferences were divided equally between the party and incumbency advantages the same as in 2016. Republicans need to only win 10 of the unprojected seats to maintain their majority.

I'll let the rest of you decide if FairVote is trustworthy, but if this is true, Republicans are closer to having locked the political landscape than it seems many suspect. If Democrats fail to make meaningful gains in 2018 after the increasing chatter about the House being in play (and even the Senate, according to the ridiculously optimistic Dems / negative Republicans), that's gonna be a serious blow to morale and unity for the Democratic Party.

[DMC]

56 minutes ago, denstorebog said:

I'll let the rest of you decide if FairVote is trustworthy, but if this is true, Republicans are closer to having locked the political landscape than it seems many suspect.

208 safe GOP seats sounds about right.  The Dems do indeed need to win at least 27 of the 36 "favor" or "lean" GOP seats, as well as hold all their own.  If you're looking for optimism, one important caveat is retirements can and often are integral to House shifts:

Quote

The last three times the House switched hands — in 1994, 2006 and 2008 — retirements and scandals in previously out-of-reach districts gave the party out of power critical momentum. [...]

Today, there are 52 Republicans sitting in marginal districts with Cook PVI scores of R+5 or more Democratic — more than twice the number Democrats need. The problem for Democrats is that these tend to be personally popular members: three quarters of them won their 2016 races by double digits, and half of them won by more than 15 points. For the most part, they know how to navigate tough districts and attract independent voters.

Of the 52, just four have announced retirements so far: Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27), Dave Trott (MI-11), Charlie Dent (PA-15) and Dave Reichert (WA-08). Their retirements have vaulted these seats to the top of Democrats' takeover list. But as the holidays near and retirement season looms, Democrats' chances hinge on how many of the other 48 stick around. [..]

Of the following 48 districts fitting that description, only 7 are already in the Toss Up column. Most are held by relatively junior Republicans and there aren't obvious open seat possibilities — except Michigan's 6th CD, where GOP Rep. Fred Upton (MI-06) is considering a Senate bid. But if at least five of these members were to step aside in the next several months, Democrats' route to the majority would become much more realistic

And, the GOP is indeed fearful that those four retirements (three of which announced in the past month or so) may set off a wave.

ETA:  While he doesn't fit into those 48 districts, Pat Tiberi just announced his retirement as well.  His district has a Cook PVI of R+7.

[Martell Spy]

Quote

Yet Bannon’s attacks on establishment politicians were generally well received. When he mentioned Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain — the former POW whose name was met with boos — someone in the audience yelled, “Hang him!”

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/21/steve-bannon-california-gop-george-bush-silicon-valley-244015

Bannon rips Bush, Silicon Valley 'lords of technology'
In a defiant speech to California Republicans, the Breitbart chief cast the state as a linchpin in the fight to halt the globalist agenda.

[DireWolfSpirit]

16 hours ago, Notone said:

I just realized today (again), it's not even been a year since Dubious Donnie was elected. And it's just about 9 months since he took office, and it's three more years of this shitshow. I knew it was gonna be horrific, but boy, did he exceed expectations. Is anybody else surprised by the sheer magnitude of awfulness?

I was surprized by the sheer magnitude of awful citizens the nation harbors. The citizenry that elected this asshat are 100% complicit in this horror show. 

[Altherion]

46 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/21/steve-bannon-california-gop-george-bush-silicon-valley-244015

Bannon rips Bush, Silicon Valley 'lords of technology'
In a defiant speech to California Republicans, the Breitbart chief cast the state as a linchpin in the fight to halt the globalist agenda.

His criticism of the establishment is mostly dead-on and he's counting on the fact that significant parts of it will be disputed to further diminish the influence of his enemies. Unfortunately, his extrapolations for the future and his proposed actions are nowhere near as good. Still, it's nice to have somebody with national reach at least pointing out the problems which usually go unmentioned in American politics.

[Darth Richard II]

22 minutes ago, Altherion said:

His criticism of the establishment is mostly dead-on and he's counting on the fact that significant parts of it will be disputed to further diminish the influence of his enemies. Unfortunately, his extrapolations for the future and his proposed actions are nowhere near as good. Still, it's nice to have somebody with national reach at least pointing out the problems which usually go unmentioned in American politics.

Wut.

[denstorebog]

23 minutes ago, Altherion said:

His criticism of the establishment is mostly dead-on and he's counting on the fact that significant parts of it will be disputed to further diminish the influence of his enemies. Unfortunately, his extrapolations for the future and his proposed actions are nowhere near as good. Still, it's nice to have somebody with national reach at least pointing out the problems which usually go unmentioned in American politics.

Yes, we're lucky to have Steve Bannon.